Mostly Quiet Vermont Week Continues, Possible Storms Northwest This Afternoon; Weekend Rain Questions

I had a dream last night that Vermont was raked by
extreme tornadoes, like the one pictured, along
with extreme floods and August snow. Happily
for all of us, we're in the midst of a relatively
uneventful weather week. Though there could
be a few storms north late today. 

 The fog was a little slow to clear in some areas of Vermont yesterday, but it did clear, leading to a partly cloudy, seasonable day. Hope you enjoyed it!

Since we don't have much weather excitement, I have to tell you about one of my strange dreams last night. (I have vivid, weird dreams on a nightly basis).

In the dream, El Nino triggered a massive, unprecedented late August storm in the Northeast. 

Everybody in New England, including here in Vermont,  was told to expect a swarm of powerful EF-5 tornadoes, followed by hurricane force winds, rains that would cause epic floods followed by several inches of August snow. 

I'm extremely happy to report that I guarantee we won't see anything dramatic like that this week. Or any week. Sure, climate change and El Nino are making weather more extreme, but nothing like that!

Instead, were happily stuck with a week of fairly nice, mostly uneventful
weather, but with a few hiccups here and there. 

The first hiccup is today.

REST OF TODAY

We are still expecting that dying cold front to make its way toward us this afternoon, from the northwest. 

I'm a little gun shy now when I bring up a chance of thunderstorms. After last week, when it seemed any little thunderstorm would blow up into something severe, I don't want to relax too much about the chances of high winds or other problems with any thunderstorms. 

That said, the deck is stacked against severe weather. As this morning's National Weather Service forecast discussion points out, there is some wind aloft that thunderstorms could potentially use to create gusty winds down here where we live. But a lack of instability, dry air aloft and some showers in Quebec this morning will all work against any storms taking advantage of those winds aloft. 

To quote the National Weather Service/South Burlington office: "Strong to severe storms are not likely today, but cannot be completely ruled out."

Sigh.

If any storms happen, they're most likely in northern New York and the far northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. Even those late afternoon and evening showers and storms will be hit and miss, so not everybody in this zone will get wet.

The further south you go, the less chance of rain. Everybody, or almost everybody in southern Vermont gets nothing. Overall, it'll be a typical August day, with highs near 80 degrees with moderate humidity.

THURSDAY

There might be some clouds around in the afternoon, but overall it'll be a nice day, as highs get well into the 70s. There could be a sprinkle over the northern mountains and Northeast Kingdom, but it won't be nearly enough to ruin this cool-ish August day.

FRIDAY

We'll be off to a cool start with patchy early morning fog.  Most places will be in the low 50s as dawn breaks, with the chillier valleys in the upper 40s. The fog will burn off to reveal the pick of the weather week, Highs will reach the 70s to near 80 under sunny skies and low humidity.

SATURDAY

Another nice one, as it looks now. Sunshine, with maybe some afternoon clouds It'll be up near 80 degrees.

SUNDAY

The next weather system arrives. It looks like the day might be showery, especially later on. But the amount and location of the rain, along with the timing of it, are still in the iffy stage. However, this doesn't look like a serious, scary storm at this point

 

Clear Skies In Vermont Yield To Long, Humid Spell Of Florida Weather. When Will It End? We Have Clues

A summer rarity. Yesterday afternoon's satellite photo
shows cloudless skies in northern New England, New York
and southern Ontario and Quebec. You see hints of 
wildfire smoke in Quebec. It's rare to see such a huge
area of cloudless skies in the summer. The afternoon
heat usual generates at least a few cumulus clouds

Believe it or not, yesterday was a weird weather day in Vermont.

It didn't seem weird. Just gorgeous. The odd part was the clouds. Or lack thereof. We spent the whole day in the Green Mountain State without a cloud in the sky. There were just the faintest hint of wildfire smoke, but that's it. 

We do have absolutely clear days in the spring and fall. Even, sometimes, in the winter. But cloudless summer skies are rare. There's usually enough lift in the atmosphere created by the heat of the day to generate at least a few puffy clouds over the mountains. 

Yesterday, nothing. No complaints, though it was a glorious summer day. 

Our cloudless days are over, thanks to the well-advertised burst of high humidity coming in starting today and intensifying Thursday. 

That miserable weather looks like it will stay with us until the early part of next week. There is hope, eventually that this will end. Keep reading and we'll tell you when

TODAY

Actually, still not bad. As far as clouds go, there will be some high clouds which will signal the more humid air coming in. And maybe a few puffy cumulus clouds over the mountains. But still, the sunshine will dominate. The humidity will be a higher than yesterday, but still not extreme. Highs in most places should get well into the 80s, so today is a great beach day. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Ugh, High humidity, partly cloudy skies and highs in the 80s.  Since the air will be like what Florida sees in the summer, we'll have Florida weather. That means scattered showers and thunderstorms, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Unlike Florida, Vermont has mountains. The hillsides will create updrafts that will help trigger the storms, so most - but not all - of the activity will be near the mountains. 

Not everybody will see a shower or storm. They will be hit and miss. Those that get hit will see a briefly cooling torrential downpour, but the mugginess will return fast. Unfortunately the nights will be stuffy as hell.

SATURDAY

More ugh.  This could change, but it appear showers and storms might be a little more widespread that the previous days. Dew points will still be in the miserable low 70s. That'll be the third day in a row of that kind of super high humidity, which is very unusual in Vermont. 

SUNDAY

More of the same? Really? Looks that way. If we're lucky, the dew point might drop by a couple points, but it will still remain horribly humid. We also have a shot at a mostly rain-free day, but that's still iffy at this point. 

NEXT WEEK

The week starts with more of the same, but the temperatures might be only near 80, instead of the low 80s. The humidity will still be awful but then --- a change in the weather!!

Signs are pointing toward notably cooler and much less humid air toward the end of next week. And that cooler regime might last quite awhile, if iffy long range forecasts are correct. The weather during that cool down might still be unsettled with a risk of showers. But at least we'll be able to sleep at night for a change. 

Enjoy This Brief Sort Of Coolish Spell In Vermont This Morning; Tropical Week Ahead

Ever so briefly, the sky took on an autumnal look late
yesterday afternoon as a brief cooler, less humid
blast of air took over in Vermont. The rest of the
week will be very warm, with increasing humidity

 It turns out almost everybody got some rain in Vermont yesterday as a solid line of showers and thunderstorms crossed the state yesterday. That was followed by stiff brought stiff breezes made it actually feel cool outside last evening. 

Most places in Vermont were in the 50s this morning, with low 60s in the Champlain Valley. 

As we get through today, this sort of  coolish spell is over, for quite a long time. Let's get into it.

TODAY

The good news is the humidity stays fairly low. So as sunshine boosts temperatures into the 80s, it won't feel too terrible. The dew point, a rough measure of how sticky it feels out there, will hover near  60 degrees. That's not a totally refreshing level, but it will do. 

WEDNESDAY

A little hotter a little more humid. Dew points will be in the low 60s as afternoon temperatures climb well into the 80s. Sunshine will continue, so if you have the opportunity, it's a good beach day. We're into August, so there might not be too many such days left. Leap at this chance for fun in the sun.  Just be sure to OD on the sunscreen, please. 

THURSDAY-FRIDAY

Tropical humidity with a good chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. We'll have to watch on Thursday whether the instability might be robust enough for some strong storms. This will be a winner/loser type situation, as some areas will get drenched by torrential downpours while other areas get little or nothing. 

We might also have to watch out for isolated instances of flash flooding once again, since the storms might not move all that fast. We won't have anything widespread in the high water department, it's just something to watch. 

WEEKEND

Still muggy with a risk of storms. But the weather pattern will have rearranged itself slightly so that we'll be in a battleground between the oppressive Bermuda High and an autumn-ish storm up by Hudson Bay. That means little weather disturbances will fling themselves through New England in a fast flow within this battleground. 

Hard to say when we'll get some rain and storms and when it will be dry. It's also impossible to say how impressive or wimpy the rain an storms will be. For now, file next weekend under he "iffy" category.

NEXT WEEK

It seems like the storm up in Canada might slowly gain more influence over us here in the North Country. If that happens, we'll gradually lose the humidity but will keep the chances of showers going. Hard to say for sure because forecasts beyond five days are often not very accurate. But this attempt at a forecast is your hope we lose all that sticky, gross air that we're going to deal with. 

Expected Overnight Rain Mostly Misses Vermont, Unfortunately. Hit And Miss Stuff Today

Late season day lilies "Country Club" variety, blooms
in St. Albans, Vermont this morning. Most of the
predicted rain avoided us, but there are some chances
of rain today, but it will be hit and miss

  Streaks of heavier rain that swept through New York and New England unfortunately mostly missed Vermont. Which is too bad, because many gardens and crops could have used a good drink.  

A few places got decent rain. Rutland had 0.56 inches through 8 a.m.  Other areas were pathetic. Montpelier has 0.15 inches. Bennington, 0.13 inches, Burlington a mere 0.05 inches. 

Southern and eastern New England grabbed the moisture. Flash flood warnings were up in parts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. 

So, will it rain today? Maybe, in some places. Let's get into it.

TODAY

We still have shots at getting some rain today, but it will be hit and miss. I'm hoping for more hits than miss. 

The moisture for the rain is certainly there. I'm sure you've noticed the continued humidity out there. A weak cold front is arriving today.  The front is sort of coming through in pieces, as is typical weak summer cold fronts.

That'll generate showers and storms that will cross the state from west to east today. In patches and bunches. There's a chance a couple of the storms could be fairly strong here and there. We'll end up with a patchwork of towns and cities that ended up getting a nice drink of water from the skies, while people in other towns watch the dark clouds bypass them. 

They'll be sweating as they do so as the humidity will bypass them, though the air will start to freshen up a little toward evening as the cold front staggers off into eastern New England.  The departure of that cold front means the showers and thunderstorms should be out of Vermont by late afternoon.

A trailing disturbance will probably set off some light showers this evening over northern Vermont, but they won't amount to much. 

TUESDAY

We'll have a brief break from the humidity so enjoy it, as it will be a delightful summer day squeezed in between days of mugginess. It'll be sunny, and highs will get into the 80s. So enjoy the lake, enjoy some hikes, or whatever else you're doing. 

WEDNESDAY

Actually, not bad. The humidity will creep up, but it won't get out of control. The sunshine will continue and highs will go well into the 80s. 

THURSDAY - SUNDAY

A strong Bermuda High off the East Coast still looks like it will dominate our weather. That'll pump the very warm, humid air our way. Even though it will be oppressive, temperatures will struggle to reach 90 degrees. High humidity will absorb the sun's heat, preventing extreme heat. But it won't matter, it'll be uncomfortable as hell.

We'll also have an ever-present chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best shot at seeing thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. They will be hit and miss, so we'll see rainfall winners and losers, as usual. 

Little weather disturbances riding along the muggy southwest flow will provide bursts of more numerous showers and storms, but it's hard to tell this far in advance. 

It's summer. We get this kind of weather, Soon enough we'll be complaining about the cold. Embrace the humidity. 

Flood Concerns Stay Off To Vermont's West As We Stay Warm. Humid. Wet Early Monday

Later summer garden in St. Albans, Vermont this 
morning. The gardens should get a decent drink of
water tonight and tomorrow from a batch of 
relatively heavy showers in the forecast

As expected, we're in a warm, humid regime here in Vermont with little sign of relief on the way. 

Forecasts have settled on the heaviest rain today and tonight in western and northern New York and in Ontario. There, flood watches are in effect. 

For Vermont, we should eke out a decent day, with clouds and sun, and a chance of a late day shower or garden-variety thunderstorm, especially northwest. Many of us will stay dry. Highs should reach the 80s this afternoon, and you'll continue to feel that humidity build. 

TONIGHT/MONDAY

Most of the rain Vermont gets will hold off until later tonight and the first half of Monday. This will more of a Goldilocks rainfall - heavy enough to give gardens and crops a good drink, light enough to prevent any flooding. 

NOAA has a slight risk of flash floods level two out of four, in the extreme northern 'Adirondacks and along New York's Canadian border. They've put Vermont in a marginal risk, level one out of four for flash floods in case a local downpour causes trouble. But that risk really looks pretty low.

We'll see some downpours and embedded rumbles of thunder within this but nothing particularly scary. There is a marginal - level one out of five risk of severe storms in the southeastern two thirds of Vermont, and much of the rest of New England, but this won't be a widespread outbreak of bad weather. 

The rain and downpours will tend to taper off as we go through the afternoon and evening. A little sun might come out as well.

TUESDAY

The pick of the week if you have outdoor plans. The humidity should temporarily dip to somewhat comfortable levels, with dew points in the low 60s. That's considered just slightly sticky but not oppressive. Sunshine should boost temperatures into the 80s.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY

We have a long spell of warm, humid air with a daily risk of mostly afternoon showers and thunderstorms every day. We'll be sandwiched between a strong Bermuda High off the East Coast and a dip in the jet stream well to our west.  So, little disturbances in that humid southwesterly flow of air will keep those chances of thunderstorms going.

We're into August now, so at least in some years, the change in seasons begins to take the edge out of the constant humid weather. There are signs that we could have a sort of autumnal spell by mid-month. No promises, but there's a chance. 

Vermont (Mostly Dodged A Flood Bullet While Nearby New York's Hudson Valley Is A Flood Disaster Zone

Rescue operations during yesterday's big flood in
New York's Capitol District. Vermont dodged a 
bullet as the bulk of the heavy rain fell just
to the west of southern Vermont

 Phew!

Vermont is waking up to a little flood damage in the southern end of the state, but nothing catastrophic. 

The big flood came right up to our doorstep - taking out homes and business and roads and cars in the Hudson Valley just a short drive from the Bennington, Vermont area.

Nearly a foot of rain fell on some communities just south of Albany. Albany itself had just under seven inches of rain out of this. 

Rainfall totals in parts of far southern Vermont were impressive, too. A handful of towns in the far southern Green Mountains reported storm totals of around five inches. 

Any damage to southern Vermont is overshadowed by what happened in the Albany Capitol District, but I'm sure there's some road and driveway damage in some steep areas of the extreme southern Green Mountains. 

I saw reports of the Deerfield River in Wilmington running very high, and the Beaver Brook in that town over its banks. A sink hold formed on
 East Main Street in Wilmington. 

Vermont definitely suffers flood PTSD after the horrific floods of 2023 and 2024 and the lesser, but still destructive Northeast Kingdom flash flood of 2025. I saw a WPTZ report of nervousness in Montpelier on Wednesday as the devastating flood of 2023 is still fresh in everyone's memory. 

Montpelier was never forecast to have serious flood problems with this storm. And it turns out they only received 0.63 inches of rain through early this morning, which is less than had been expected.

To be on the safe side, the Vermont Urban Search and Rescue Task Force deployed two squads, one in Wilmington and the other in Ludlow to respond to any water crises.

So, anytime there's any sort of flood threat in Vermont, people get nervous. 

Believe it or not, Vermont isn't entirely free from flood threats over the coming days, though I'd emphasize that for now, it's just a weather system that bears watching Sunday and Monday. There's a chance that we could see some heavy rain on those days, but it's way too soon to say whether it will be just the usual brief summer downpours or something else.

Let's get into the daily details

TODAY

Kind of a grungy summer day with only a little sun here and there and an ever-present chance of showers. Much like yesterday, it'll be kind of humid but not that warm with highs in the 70s. 

The storm that brought the Hudson Valley flood is not entirely out of our hair, though the torrential rains associated with it are gone.  So many areas will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less today. The Connecticut River Valley, which especially north of White River Junction largely missed out on the rain, could get up to a quarter inch today. No biggie.

FRIDAY

 A nicer day, though still on the humid side. We'll have a fair amount of sun, a slight chance of a shower for storm, but most of us will stay dry. It should get into the low 80s in most of Vermont

SATURDAY

Typical summer weather continues. Still on the humid side, with sunshine. Like the previous days, there might be some haze in the air from wildfires out west. And a very slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm thrown in. Highs once again in the 80s.

SUNDAY/MONDAY

Here's where we potentially run into trouble. Some models have a humid summer cold front come through with the usual showers and thunderstorms and brief torrents of rain. If that scenario plays out, then we're fine. 

However, some models slow things down, and develop another small, sluggish but very wet storm somewhere over or near New England or New York. If that happens, we could have more flood problems somewhere in the North Country. 

For now, don't worry about it, since we don't know yet how this will play out. But you should listen to updated forecasts as we get closer to Sunday and Monday, in the off chance things go south again. 

 

Will Weather Pattern Adjustment Might Eventually Soak Vermont. Maybe

National Weather Service has decent rains over much of
New England including Vermont over the next seven 
days. Purple shading is at least 1.5 inches of rain.
If this forecast materializes, almost all of that
rain would fall between Tuesday and Thursday.
Forecast is subject to big changes, though. It's 
possible we'll end up missing out again. 

As we enjoy our beautiful summer weekend, our gardens are getting a little fed up with all this sunshine. 

It's getting drier and drier out there. No drought to report out there yet. But we could be heading in that direction if widespread rain doesn't arrive soon. 

The ongoing dry weather is well-timed, since it's hitting on the weekend. Comfortable nights, warm summer day on Saturdays and Sundays during Vermont's short summers are precious. So let's enjoy it. 

A little shift is coming up in the weather pattern that could, perhaps, give Vermont a good soaking during the work week. 

For the past couple weeks, a heat dome was positioned over the Rockies and Plains states. The corresponding dip in the jet stream sent quick storms racing across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States, causing outbreaks of severe weather in those places. 

Vermont would get some rain out of these, but it was generally hit or miss. We'd also get some severe weather, but not nearly to the extent as places south and west of here. 

Now, there's a subtle shift setting up. The heat dome in the Rockies is nudging just a bit further west. So is the base of the jet stream dip in the East. At first, we'll just have more of the same, with a batch of severe weather in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday and in the Mid-Atlantic states Tuesday. 

But with the base of the jet stream dip a tiny bit to our west, there's an opportunity for the next weather system to slow down and sit near us for a few days next week.  That could bring a statewide, soaking rain.  

The computer forecasting models are still disagreeing on how much things will slow down and how much rain might fall. We might still only receive a little rain, as the moisture could slip off the East Coast before ever making it to Vermont.    

We have been cheated out of a soaking rain frequently in the past couple weeks, so that dry scenario is definitely possible.  But some other  forecasts give us an inch or two.

There's also a slight chance there could be too much of a good thing. If it rains too hard we could see some flooding. The risk of that happening so far looks to be on the low side, but it bears watching, just in case. 

The first chances of showers or thunderstorms would arrive Monday. But those look to be hit and miss, probably mostly miss, so there wouldn't be too much rain then. 

The bulk of the showers and storms would come through Tuesday and Wednesday, as it looks now .

We'll obviously update you as the possible rainstorms draw nearer next wee 

Gorgeous Vermont Weather To Last Through The Weekend

Despite dry conditions, a rogue petunia emerges from a 
crack between asphalt and an old timber between my
driveway and front deck in St. Albans, Vermont. The
flower will see sunshine, but no rain through the weekend.

 It was another cool morning in Vermont with many spots down in the mid and upper 40s again so you should have had another good sleeping night. 

This launches us into yet another great summer weekend. We've had several good weather weekends this summer, so this is has been one of the better warm seasons we've had.

The next couple of days will feature very warm to borderline hot afternoons, with  pretty tame humidity. So, the beaches, hiking trails and cremee stands will be pretty busy for the next few days. 

Weather systems are moving slowly, so high pressure will be stuck nearly overhead all weekend. Hence the sunshine. 

The details: 

TODAY

The strong July sun will drive temperatures up to the low 80s. If you are counting today as part of your weekend, today will be the coolest day of the stretch. 

Much like yesterday, there's traces of wildfire smoke in the atmosphere over Vermont, but it's not nearly thick enough to be an issue. And what little there is is mostly aloft, so the Green Mountains still look mostly green. 

Since the humidity will be low, the atmosphere will release the day's heat, so we'll have another comfortable night. Most of us will start tomorrow in the 50s, with some 40s in the cold spots, and near 60 if you're close to Lake Champlain. 

SATURDAY

Same as today, except somewhat warmer. Highs should get into the 80s statewide. Dew points, a rough measure of how humid it feels outside, will be in the 50s. That's a little higher than today, but still well within the comfortable range,

SUNDAY

Another wonderful summer day. The hottest towns could touch 90 degrees, though most places will stay in the mid and upper 80s. There might be a couple clouds in the afternoon, but the sun will be out most of the time. You might see a couple thundershowers pop up over the Adirondacks, but it looks doubtful any of those will make it over the lake into Vermont. 

NEXT WEEK

Remember how I mentioned above how weather systems are moving slowly?  We'll pay for that during the first half of next week. The particulars are still vague, but a weather front should move in, and slowly pass through.  That leaves us with some pretty high chances of showers or maybe thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday. 

This isn't exactly bad news, because we need the rain. Especially after the dry weather that started yesterday. Some parts of the state haven't had any decent rains since July 9. Here in St. Albans, I've had only about a quarter inch of rain since July 9.

Yes, It Was Autumnal In Vermont But July Cool Spells Aren't That Cool Anymore. Now Back To Regularly Scheduled Summer

Autumn-like clouds overhead and strong winds tilt a tree
in St. Albans yesterday on an autumn-like day. However,
summer cool spells are not as cold as they once were,
thanks largely to climate change. 

Yesterday and last night in Vermont sort of had the feel of early autumn. 

Broken clouds streaked across the sky, but in the afternoon and evening, they were those flat windswept type, not the puffy, rising, almost vertical clouds that are more common in summer. 

The winds for the past few days were gusty and cool, and much stronger than you'd expect in the summer. They gusts were more like what you might see toward November. 

By dawn today, readings were down to the upper 40s and low 50s. The summit of Mount Mansfield was at 39 degrees.

It looks like Burlington made it down to 53 degrees this morning, which will likely be the coolest night this month. 

But in yet another sign of climate change, probably mixed with urban development creating a heat island effect, that 53 low this morning is higher than what the July low routinely reached in the past.

.July temperatures in Burlington reached the 40s most years. But Burlington hasn't had a July low under 50 degrees since 2015. In the 80 years ending in 1990, only 17 years had July lows of 50 or above. In the 36 years since 1990,  all but 10 Julys had a months low of 50 degrees or more.  

To give you an idea how cool some Julys used to be, we can harken back to 1962, which, to be fair, was the chilliest July on record,. That July, eleven mornings started under 50 degrees. One of those mornings bottomed out at 39 degrees, which is still Burlington's coldest July temperature on record. It was 29 degrees in West Burke, Vermont that morning. 

Nothing like that is coming anytime soon, of course. No covering up those tomato plants for quite awhile yet. And, a warming trend is starting. Here's what's coming up over the next few days. 

TODAY

A nice one, with sunshine, low humidity and a light breeze. A strong but dying storm far up in Quebec was throwing clouds into far northern Vermont this morning, but those should mostly clear out. The sky, especially over the mountains, will probably have some puffy clouds building up this afternoon, but they won't be big enough to produce any raindrops.

SATURDAY

Another winner! The day will start off cool with temperatures in the 50s to near 60 at dawn, but rocket into the 80s by afternoon. It'll be another weekend day fully endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

SUNDAY:

Actually kind of a hot one by afternoon. Highs should get well into the 80s with the warmer valleys getting up to around 88 or 89 degrees. It'll be your beach day, probably. Some clouds might arrive during the afternoon, but those clouds won't turn the sky overcast. The sun will likely more out than in. Any showers should hold off until Sunday night at the earliest. 

Humidity levels should stay pretty reasonable, too. 

NEXT WEEK

The first half of the week looks unsettled with risks of showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. It's still too soon to say how many showers and storms, so stay tuned!

Severe Weather Blasts Northeast, But Not Vermont, But The Wind Was Impressive

Scary weather hit the eastern United States
yesterday, but not Vermont. This shows a
flash flood in West Virginia. Note 
the water level outside the sliding 
glass doors. Photo via Facebook 
posted by Ryan Hall Y'all

As expected, Vermont escaped the severe weather that slammed large swaths of the Northeast, but we did have a little bit of wind trouble.

Even though there were no big storms  in Vermont - in fact a number of places had no rain or just a trace - non-thunderstorm south winds cut power in a few spots.  At one point, 3,750 homes and businesses were without power. 

The winds were strongest in the Champlain Valley. Burlington had a gust to 46 mph, for instance. I spent part of the late afternoon removing small branches and twigs from my St. Albans yard. 

It's very unusual for a storm to generate such big gusts this time of year. We've had a series of such storms this summer, which is weird. 

Given such a volatile storm severe weather was inevitable somewhere. So far, nine tornadoes have been confirmed in New Jersey, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. 

Flash flooding swept many areas. The New York City area endured badly flooded streets for the second time in four days. In parts of West Virginia, five inches of rain fell within hours, causing catastrophic flash flooding. 

More than 2,000 flights were canceled because of the storms.

After all that chaos, things are calming down. Which in a way, is too bad. Parts of Vermont really need the rain now. 

TODAY

A cold front is coming through Vermont this morning, too soon to let thunderstorms really fire up. That'll happen further east. Central and northern Maine is under the gun for some severe storms today. 

We will have some hit and miss showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder in a few spots. You could see a band of light rain over northern New York shortly after 9 a.m. That was the cold front.  Even so, many of us will avoid any rain.  

We all love nice days, but, as I've done before, I need to quote Lynn Anderson. "Along with the sunshine, there's gotta be a little rain sometimes."

We're not quite yet on the cusp of another drought, but we do need some rain. At least in parts of Vermont. Scattered showers will bid a hasty retreat out of Vermont by early to mid afternoon. 

The front will make the humidity crash during the day today. You'll notice the change in the air by this afternoon amid fresh westerly breezes. Temperatures will hold in the 70s, with a few low 80s southeast. 

TOMORROW

A gorgeous day. We'l start with another cool morning, most of us will see lows in the 50s, with 40s in the cold spots. Highs will reach the 70s to low 80s with low humidity. The sun will be mixes with a  few pretty clouds. Another Chamber of Commerce day. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

We're in for more weather fully endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. We'll enjoy a couple of coolish, comfortable mornings followed by sunny, warm afternoons. Pleasant enough for a vigorous hike, warm enough for a dip in the lake or a swimming hole. Maple cremees will be eaten fast so they don't melt all over the place. 

Highs will be in the low 80s Friday and mid 80s Saturday, with a few upper 80s in the warmer valleys. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Some sort of disturbance will work in to raise the risk of some showers, but it will absolutely not be a washout. Unsettled weather will continue early next week, but we don't have specifics on I  unsettled. At least not yet. 

Ahhhhh! A Cool Vermont Morning To Be Followed By More Hot Weather

An approaching thunderstorm loomed over Frederick,
Maryland late Saturday afternoon. It dropped the 
temperature there from 102 to 77 within an hour,
Meanwhile, Vermont is enjoying some pleasant
low humidity now that the heat wave is over. 

Sorry for the late morning report. Still in Frederick, Maryland visiting and having a great time, which of course disrupts these reports. Oh well, no biggie.  

Yesterday, I endured my third day in a row of 102 degree temperatures.  No extended periods outside. We just hopped quickly from one air conditioned place to another. 

By yesterday afternoon, all lawns had been scorched brown by the blast furnace heat.  Day lilies had all wilted. Any hostas exposed to any sun burned to a crisp. 

We finally had relief late in the afternoon with a strong thunderstorm that dropped the temperature from 102 to 77 within an  hour. Frederick is expecting a high today of 93 degrees, which is better, I guess.

 So I was jealous when I saw that temperatures across Vermont fell into the 50s early this morning. There were even a few upper 40s in the cold spots.  Dew points, that measure of how humid it is, fell into the low 50s late yesterday and last night for most of us. That's even drier air than we were expecting just a couple days ago.

Also, a lot of that smoke that was expected dissipated over southern Quebec, so the smoke attack Vermont was expecting was something of a nothing burger. There's still hints of smoke and haze in the atmosphere today, but it's not bad at all.

TODAY

In Vermont, the weather is not staying cool for long. But at least it won't be as oppressively humid and hot as it was a few days ago. Under the sunshine today, highs will end up in the 80s.  The steamy air is gone for now, so it's another that should make it illegal to stay indoors. 

MONDAY

Holiday weekend is over, so it's back to work.  A weak but hellish little storm along a stalled cold front is unleashing flash floods on parts of the Mid-Atlantic States today and tomorrow. This thing will bulge moisture northward into Vermont, increasing the clouds and creating a rising risk of showers late in the south. 

TUESDAY

Our aforementioned storm will do its work in Vermont Tuesday, but don't worry: No flash floods. There's some questions over exactly how far this thing will come north. The further north it gets, the more rain everyone receives and the heavier it will be.

For now, it looks like a nice half to three quarter inch soaking in far souther Vermont, maybe a tenth to a quarter inch in central Vermont and sprinkles at best north of Route 2. Again, subject to change. The clouds and showers will hold temperatures down Tuesday: Low to mid 70s south, 77 to 82 north.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY

Hotter again, and somewhat more humid. So yup, uncomfortable again. Highs will get into the 80s to near 90.  Showers and thunderstorms should start to creep in later Thursday. 

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: 

A cold front should spread showers and thunderstorms our way. It's way too soon to figure out how many showers and storms and whether they wold be.

LONG RANGE:

The weather pattern is shifting so that a persistent heat dome will set up over the West. That suggests that in the second and third weeks of July might well mean that New England will be the coolest place in the Lower 48. 

Not cold, mind you, just not hot. NOAA's forecast out to 14 days has the Northeast with near near normal temperatures while most of the rest of the U.S. trends hot.  

Vermont Weather Quieting Down, But Not Super Quiet; Next Round Of Showers Thursday Night/Friday

A sunny start to the day today in St Albans. The peonies
have gone by and need to be dead headed. The stalks of
the day lilies are up and will bloom soon. That will
be a sign that the peak of summer has arrived, The
weather forecast indicates the same thing. 

At least here in northwest Vermont, Tuesday turned out to be a classical beautiful summer day.  The blue sky was flecked with puffy clouds as highs reached to near 80 in the Champlain Valley. 

It was cloudier in southern Vermont, but still pretty good. All of us will get to share in the summer weather most of us love before rain risks return Thursday nigh and Friday. 

Spoiler: The next round of showers and possible storms will not be as wild as the tornadic stuff we had  last week.

As always, let's get into the details:

TODAY

We've got a nearly perfect summer day in store. Temperatures at dawn started in the comfortable 50s as dawn broke. What is basically the strongest sunshine of the year will boost afternoon temperatures into the 70s and low 80s. The humidity will stay reasonable all day. Once again, the blue sky will become decorated by a few puffy clouds. 

Highs should reach well into the 70s again for most of us, with the usual banana belt warmer valleys flirting with 80 degrees again. 

THURSDAY

Another decent day, though you'll probably notice more clouds coming in during the afternoon. The humidity will creep up, but just a little. You'll only notice it a little. Highs again in the 70s to around 80.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

Our next wet period. But it doesn't look like we'll drown in torrential downpours like some events we've seen this month. 

As is almost always the case during the summer, showers and thunderstorms might have some heavy downpours in them. If current forecasts hold, though, it doesn't look like we'll really have any kind of flood threat, despite our pretty swampy ground from all the rain we've had this month.

Early guesses give us very roughly a third to two thirds of an inch of rain out of this system. Again as usual for summer, some places will miss out and get very little. Some other towns will get some big downpours and maybe to to an inch or rain. 

Fingers crossed it also doesn't look like there will be widespread severe thunderstorms. We'll keep an  eye on this because you really don't know for sure if storm will get too rambunctious until the day the storms arrive. 

WEEKEND

Kind of warm, moderately humid, still a risk of a few thunderstorms, but most of the time will be dry. Very typical summer weather.  It will tend to warm up, with highs in the 80s for most places over the weekend and early next week. 

Although the signs of a warm up are there, I'm still unsure whether this will end in a spell of 90 degree weather or not. Stay tuned! 

Updates On Vermont's Very Soggy Saturday, The Return Of Summer, And "Phantom Hurricanes" That Might Not Be Entirely Phantom

National Weather Service forecast map for Saturday's
rain. Dark green indicates at least an inch of rain. Yellow
means at least 1.5 inches. 

A little more rain than expected fell in northwest Vermont Thursday. Not enough to make a difference, really, but some of us were surprised by brief heavier evening showers. But at least parts of the Champlain Valley were treated to a spectacular rainbow just before sunset. 

The rest of Vermont had very little rain yesterday, as expected,

Today is the calm before the next soggy storm. Most of us woke up to cloudy skies this morning. There were even a a few showers near the Canadian border. (It rained briefly here in St. Albans, Vermont shortly after 8 a.m. today).

But you will see more and more breaks in the overcast as the day wears on.  I suppose there could be a couple more showers, but they'd be light and isolated, No biggie.

SATURDAY:

Our soggy Saturday nor'easter is still on schedule. 

I mentioned in yesterday's post that the forecast track of the storm was "windshield wipering" back and forth between a track northward right along the New England coast, or more inland going northward across New Hampshire.

The forecasters yesterday were leaning slightly toward a more eastern track, though some models were still insisting on a more inland path.  An eastern path would have meant a little less rain in Vermont.

As of this morning, it's looking like the forecasts for the nor'easter to go right up through central New Hampshire on Saturday were the correct ones. 

That means expected rainfall totals in Vermont have gone back up. Right now - and this could still change a little - almost everybody in the Green Mountain State except maybe the immediate central and northern Champlain Valley will receive at least an inch of rain.

Cities like Burlington and St. Albans would still get a soaking with at least three quarters of an inch. Elsewhere in Vermont, some places will get an inch and a half, and I wouldn't be surprised if a couple spot clocked in at a little over two inches.

Flash flood guidance this morning says it would take 2 to 2.5 inches of rain within six hours to begin to produce flash flooding. However, it will probably take a good 12 hours or more tomorrow for even those few spots in Vermont to receive two inches of rain. 

So flooding is very unlikely in Vermont. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does put central and eastern Vermont  - along with most of New Hampshire and Maine -in a zone with a marginal risk of flooding on Saturday.  In this case, I think that just means there could be minor ponding on roads.

 Rivers and brooks and streams across Vermont will definitely rise and become swift again even if they don't go into flood stage. That means kayaking and such on them will be dangerous for at least a few days. Fishing enthusiasts should be careful not to fall in. 

Saturday's storm will add water to the already very damp Vermont soil, which could help set us up for flash flooding later if we get a lot of torrential thunderstorms in June.   Of course, we have no idea yet whether that will happen or not, so just put that on the back burner for now. 

SUMMER TREND

Sunday is June 1, the start of meteorological summer. For ease of record keeping, most climatologists regard summer as the period from June 1 through August 31,

As previously mentioned,  the first day of June will not feel like summer at all. Sunday will feature mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the 50s to near 60, breezy north winds and maybe a few light showers. Brrrrr!  

There could even be a little snow again atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire.  I think the summits of the Green Mountains might be just a wee bit too warm for snow on Sunday. But not by much.  

But don't worry! Summer is on its way. And soon. 

We'll start a sharp warming trend beginning Monday. By mid to late week, we're up in the 80s for afternoon highs, and you'll start to feel the humidity in the air.  We might also start to see summer time afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday, but that's less certain. 

PHANTOM HURRICANES

This morning's GFS (American) computer models
shows a powerful hurricane hitting the Gulf 
Coast on or around June 10. I virtually guarantee
this WON'T happen, but the models MIGHT
be sniffing out some possible tropical
activity in the Gulf of Caribbean toward
the middle of the month. We'll see. 

For the past several days, I've noticed the American computer model known as the GFS keeps indicating hurricanes popping up toward the end of its forecast range, usually two weeks in advance. 

Sometimes these forecast hurricanes are near Florida, other times in the Gulf of Mexico, sometimes near Texas, sometimes going up the East Coast, like yesterday morning's run. 

This morning it has a powerful hurricane hitting Biloxi Mississippi on June 10, then dumping another epic flood on Helene-ravaged North Carolina.

Relax. It's not going to happen.  These GFS "phantom hurricanes" is a quirk of the American computer modeling. In late May and June especially, it keeps coming up with these "phantom" hurricanes  in the final days of its two week predictions. 

Still, it's a reminder that the hurricane season official starts on Sunday. And since the model has been so consistently popping off hurricanes in recent model runs, it's an indication that the models might be sniffing out some sort of tropical storm development somewhere in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico around mid-June.

If a tropical storm forms - a big if - it's very likely it wouldn't be an enormous hurricane, like the cataclysmic Helene or Milton last year. But it's possible - not definite - we could see some sort of soggy tropical storm or even Category 1 hurricane menace somewhere along the southern U.S. coast.

This sort of thing has happened before in June. In fact, Tropical Storm Agnes in June, 1972 ended up unleashing one of the worst floods and most deadly floods on record in much of Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia and Maryland.   There's no reason a damaging June tropical storm couldn't happen again.