Tuesday Vermont Forecast: Clearing Will Be Very Reluctant, But Nice Days Coming

Fall colors hinting around my house and dying flower
gardens signal the arrival of October this week. 
Gloomy weather should last much of today,
but much warmer weather by tomorrow, Thursday. 

The gloom and drizzle and light rain we had yesterday actually felt good, at least to me. 

The fall colors popped out brightly in the gray atmosphere. Between showers, it was nice to do a little fall cleanup outside without a hot sun blasting down on me.  

Looking ahead, there are a few changes to the forecast since yesterday, as is often the case, especially in the autumn.

TODAY

Today, the dreary weather will be very reluctant to leave. More reluctant than we thought yesterday. It looks like there might be some clearing in southern Vermont, away from the Green Mountains. 

But in general, don't expect much sun. If there is any real sun, it won't come until later in the day.  It also probably won't rain,  aside from some drizzle mixed with the fog this morning. 

The clouds will tend to be low and thick, so you won't see the mountaintops. Today is not the day to hike to summits for an expansive view of the fall foliage. 

With the clouds, high temperatures will hold in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

WEDNESDAY

This part of the forecast has not changed since yesterday. The sun will come out,  though there might be quite a few high clouds. The sun should be able to break through that, though. Southerly winds should bring temperatures to near 70 degrees. 

In a hint of what's coming the next day, the air will begin to feel vaguely humid during the afternoon, but still not so bad.

THURSDAY

Another warm day. And humid. Thanks in part to of all things, Hurricane Polo, which smashed ashore in Mexico's Baja California early this morning. The remnants of the hurricane should be near El Paso, Texas of all places by noon tomorrow. Humid Pacific air will flow far to the north of that.  High pressure off the East Coast will also direct humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. 

The result might well be our last summer day of the year. (Though with El Nino raging, we could have a surprise warm day later in October, who knows?)  

Highs should get into the 70s, and dew points should get into the low and mid 60s. So those autumn foliage hikes might turn a little sweaty. 

Winds should pick up, too, especially in the Champlain Valley. It won't wreck the fall foliage, especially since the Champlain Valley is still generally green. 

FRIDAY

This will be another in a series of instances in which Vermont just misses out on a soaking rain. The remnants of Hurricane Polo will create a huge area with a risk of flooding in the United States. The flood potential  encompassing an enormous zone including all of Arizona and Mexica, along with southern Utah, then heading eastward into Texas and northeastward all the way to Illinois.  

Here in Vermont, despite the increased moisture from Hurricane Polo, and the humidity that will be in place, an approaching cold front won't give us all that much rain, at least as it looks now.  Heavy rain associated with the dead hurricane won't take it this far northeast. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says we might see 0.2 to 0.4 inches of rain. Not sure if we'll actually get that, but we will take anything we can get. 

The front was originally scheduled to come through early Friday, giving us a nice, cool day. Now, it looks like it will come through during the day, keeping us mostly under the clouds. 

WEEKEND

We might eke out a nice Saturday, with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. We have another chance of some showers Sunday.  It's a long way off, but so far, at least, it does not look like we'll see much rain. 

Vermont Weather Quieting Down, But Not Super Quiet; Next Round Of Showers Thursday Night/Friday

A sunny start to the day today in St Albans. The peonies
have gone by and need to be dead headed. The stalks of
the day lilies are up and will bloom soon. That will
be a sign that the peak of summer has arrived, The
weather forecast indicates the same thing. 

At least here in northwest Vermont, Tuesday turned out to be a classical beautiful summer day.  The blue sky was flecked with puffy clouds as highs reached to near 80 in the Champlain Valley. 

It was cloudier in southern Vermont, but still pretty good. All of us will get to share in the summer weather most of us love before rain risks return Thursday nigh and Friday. 

Spoiler: The next round of showers and possible storms will not be as wild as the tornadic stuff we had  last week.

As always, let's get into the details:

TODAY

We've got a nearly perfect summer day in store. Temperatures at dawn started in the comfortable 50s as dawn broke. What is basically the strongest sunshine of the year will boost afternoon temperatures into the 70s and low 80s. The humidity will stay reasonable all day. Once again, the blue sky will become decorated by a few puffy clouds. 

Highs should reach well into the 70s again for most of us, with the usual banana belt warmer valleys flirting with 80 degrees again. 

THURSDAY

Another decent day, though you'll probably notice more clouds coming in during the afternoon. The humidity will creep up, but just a little. You'll only notice it a little. Highs again in the 70s to around 80.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

Our next wet period. But it doesn't look like we'll drown in torrential downpours like some events we've seen this month. 

As is almost always the case during the summer, showers and thunderstorms might have some heavy downpours in them. If current forecasts hold, though, it doesn't look like we'll really have any kind of flood threat, despite our pretty swampy ground from all the rain we've had this month.

Early guesses give us very roughly a third to two thirds of an inch of rain out of this system. Again as usual for summer, some places will miss out and get very little. Some other towns will get some big downpours and maybe to to an inch or rain. 

Fingers crossed it also doesn't look like there will be widespread severe thunderstorms. We'll keep an  eye on this because you really don't know for sure if storm will get too rambunctious until the day the storms arrive. 

WEEKEND

Kind of warm, moderately humid, still a risk of a few thunderstorms, but most of the time will be dry. Very typical summer weather.  It will tend to warm up, with highs in the 80s for most places over the weekend and early next week. 

Although the signs of a warm up are there, I'm still unsure whether this will end in a spell of 90 degree weather or not. Stay tuned! 

Cold Storm Departs. Much Weaker Cold Storm Arrives Today But Summer Is Around The Corner!

Yes, that was snow gleaming at the summit of Mount
Mansfield, Vermont Saturday after a cold storm blew through

That storm yesterday really left its mark on New England with mountain snows and wind and rain and chilly temperatures reminiscent of March in some places. 

Here in Vermont, the weather got nice, if chilly. The afternoon sky lit up blue, with patchy, cold-looking stratocumulus clouds. 

The tippy top of Mount Mansfield gleamed white with new snow. Yes, on May 30. Nice contrast between the green slopes just below the snow. 

The weather wasn't so nice in so nice in eastern New England. The storm evolved into a nor'easter,, with many communities in eastern Massachusetts never getting above 50 degrees and wind gusts exceeding 50 mph. Hull, Massachusetts reached 60 mph. 

Adding to the drama, a meteor exploded over Cape Cod Bay somewhere between Boston and Provincetown Saturday afternoon, creating a loud boom and some shaking

Back here in Vermont, rainfall was more generous than predicted. Most places north and east of Interstate 89 had more than an inch of rain. Many towns in that wet region has more than 1.5 inches of rain. The town of Morgan was drenched with .2.19 inches of rain. Westfield had 1.9 inches.  

More rain is in the forecast, but nothing like we saw Friday night and early Saturday. 

TODAY

Skies clouded up overnight, preventing temperatures from getting cold enough for a frost. The clouds are from the next batch of showers and cold air aloft diving down through Quebec toward us. 

Unlike in eastern New England, skies cleared during the
late morning to reveal a delightfully sunny, breezy, 
cool afternoon to enjoy the outdoors,

This one is much weaker than the small-sized but big powerhouse we dealt with Friday night. So we'll see much less rain.  

Most places will only see 0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain, so this is only a slight wetting compared to what we saw Friday night. 

A few places will get a little more, because there's a chance a thunderstorm or two could be embedded within the mess of showers heading our way. 

If some thunderstorms get going, a few might  have pea sized hail since the air high above us is so cold. 

As far as timing goes, we already had a few light showers going on north as of 9 a.m. There will be a rising chance of showers north, spreading south through the day. The greatest chances of getting wet will probably is between 4 and 8 p.m., but of course there's chances of rain before and after those hours. 

Since its a cold system, it'll be cool for the season again today with highs in the 60s.

REST OF THE WEEK

We will slowly emerge from this cool spell and welcome back early summer.  Some potential complications that would keep us chilly longer are starting to seem less and less likely. 

Monday will probably start off cloudy, but clear up as temperatures rise only into the 60s, with maybe a spot 70 in warmer valleys far south and upper 50s in hilly terrain north. That's still a little cool as we start off June, but it's nothing incredible. 

The rest of the week looks pretty sunny and really nice. Highs should be near 70 Tuesday, well into the 70s Wednesday and probably into the 80s by Thursday. 

Cold fronts coming along toward next weekend look like they'll lack the oomph of the ones we saw in May, So generally warm weather will get June off to a great start, 

Not Necessarily "Nice" Vermont Weather In The Traditional Sense, But We Need The Rain And Gloom

After a long winter of snow prediction maps, it's nice to
post rain prediction maps. If this is accurate, most of us
should see an inch of rain by the end of the day Friday.

The Vermont weather forecast for today and tomorrow is great for people who prefer to stay indoors anyway. But not so much for those who like to spend time out in their gardens. 

But those gardens need drinks of water and those should get a Big Gulp serving today and tomorrow. 

For now anyway, the predicted amount of rain is pretty generous. This morning through Friday morning, the National Weather Service is predicting an inch of rain, give or take for most of Vermont. 

The Northeast Kingdom will probably get a little less than that. Some spots in central Vermont could close in on an inch and a half.

Of course, I'm sort of counting those proverbial chickens before they hatch. The arrangement of little storms and moisture flows over the next couple of days is touch and go and a little uncertain, so a lot can go wrong to cheat us out of a soaking rain. 

But if this rainy spell turns out as expected, we'l come closer to normal rainfall for this point in the season. 

Vermont still has a bit of a hangover from last year's drought. And precipitation so far this year is just meh, coming up short in most of the state. 

Through yesterday, May 12, Burlington has had 1.13 inches less precipitation than normal. That's not a drought, but it's definitely not sopping wet, either. Montpelier was 1.62 inches behind schedule in the rain department for the year so far. 

Rutland is even worse, running 2.3 inches under what we should have gotten up to this point in the year. North Springfield, an area of the state that is still official in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, is short 4.36 inches of rain as of yesterday. 

Only the southwest and northeast corners of Vermont are closer to normal. St. Johnsbury as of yesterday was within a quarter inch or so of normal. Bennington was short by only about two thirds of an inch. 

The expected rain this week will narrow, but not erase the precipitation gap. 

Let's do the details:

TODAY: 

It dawned cloudy today, as expected. It was still a little frosty early this morning in eastern Vermont, but not anything particularly damaging to crops and gardens. 

It was in the 40s in the Champlain Valley. This might be a spoiler to the extended forecast, but - unless there's some real surprises in our future - I think the Champlain Valley's threat of frost has passed until this coming fall. The rest of Vermont, well, just hang in there. 

Rain was moving into Vermont as we approached the 9 a.m. hour. It looked like rain was coming down a pretty good clip in New York state, but I think it might lighten up a little once it embraces the Green Mountain State. 

Still, it''ll be a rainy, chilly day. Highs should only get into the 50s. We'll probably get a quarter inch of rain, maybe a little less in spots. The rain will tend to diminish this evening and early tonight. At least temporarily. 

TOMORROW

Also looking rainy. But there will be a bit of dance going on between the decaying upper level low that is now coming in from the west, a small storm we think will develop in southern New England tomorrow, and a stronger storm well offshore. 

But the thinking is that weird atmospheric dance should shove some Atlantic moisture northwestward to us here in Vermont, giving a continued soaking rain. The rain should be even heavier in eastern New England, but I don't expect anybody in the region to see any flooding. Just a good soaking. Again, fingers crossed.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Ahhh the warmth arrives. Friday should show slow improvement, as clouds and maybe morning showers should give way to some sun, especially north and west. It should get into the 60s, so not too bad!

And then, a warm weekend! Yes, that means highs right up there in the 70s. Balmy! almost summer-like, aside from the cool but not cold nights. And spoiler: Some forecasts bring us into the 80s by Tuesday. 

In other words, we get a nice reward after the chilly, rainy weather we're in for. 

 

Thump Of Vermont Snow Long Gone, Light Snow To Continue; Arctic Air Disappears

Traffic got backed up on Interstate 89 southbound
in Colchester due probably to lingering snow and slush
on the road causing a slide off or two. More light
snow is expected for the rest of today. 

 Last night's storm is mostly over in Vermont, aside from a bit of last hurrah coming this afternoon and evening. 

But the effects still linger. For instance, I noticed Interstate 89 near Milton was a parking lot for awhile this morning due to slide offs or crashes or, whatever went on along that slushy stretch of highway. 

The traffic trouble along the Interstate looks like it improved by around 8 a.m., but I'm sure there will be trouble here and there.

Traffic cams as of 8 a.m. were showing most roads across Vermont were slushy. Some were still snow covered.  A little light snow was still falling around the state, but that bigger thump of snow from last night is long gone. 

Judging by preliminary reports, it looks like accumulations were in line with expectations. Burlington reports 4.1 inches of snow so far.  My  place here in St. Albans had received 3.8 inches of new snow as of 8 a.m. and it was still snowing lightly.  Most of the few reports that have come across so far seem to be in the three to five inch range.

As I mentioned last evening, the bulk of the snow was driven by a surge of warm air coming from the west in tandem with the storm system itself.  As expected, nobody to my knowledge in Vermont got above freezing, like places western New York did. 

But the warm air aloft over performed a bit. Some areas in eastern New York and Vermont had a little freezing rain or drizzle after the band of heavy snow passed by after 10 p.m. last night. There was a thin ice layer in the snow outside my door when I checked this morning. I also notice Burlington reported a little freezing rain around 2 a.m. today. 

REST OF THE DAY

Any risk of freezing rain or sleet is definitely over. As expected, the original storm that came in from the west is fading or has gone away in favor of a new storm off the Maine coast. Because of this, winds have shifted into the north. 

As we go through the day, that offshore storm will get a little better at pulling moisture from the North Atlantic, southwestward across Quebec, then southward down on northern New England. 

That means the snow will pick up a little in intensity this afternoon and early evening, at least in some parts of Vermont. 

This will deposit another one to three inches of snow in most of northern Vermont, and along the Green Mountains all the way down to the Massachusetts border. The Connecticut River valley and valleys in southwest Vermont will see less than an inch. 

All this is basically a heads up that chances are, you'll hit some snow covered or slippery roads once again on your trip home from work or school today. 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND 

The weather actually looks boring for the next several days. Which means it'll be the peak of awesomeness for people who want to go outside and enjoy winter. This might have been the "crown of winter" storm, in the valleys at least. Crown of winter storms are the ones that bring the deepest snow cover of the winter. They usually come shortly before a thaw that starts to reduce the snow pack. 

We're having a decent snow year, especially in the mountains. In the valleys, it's OK, too. Through yesterday, Burlington has had 62 inches of snow for the season, which is 8.5 inches ahead of normal for the date. 

There's lots of snow outside to play in, and for once temperatures will be comfortable enough to enjoy it Daytime highs should be in the mid-20s to low 30s daily Thursday through Sunday. 

That's the sweet spot: Mild enough to not kill yourself from frostbite, chilly enough to keep the snow nice and powdery and sweet. The only bummer is that last night's snow buried some absolutely perfect smooth skating ice on Lake Champlain. 

If you're a winter lover,  all good things must come to an end. If you hate your fuel bills, all bad things must come to an end. 

By that I mean our long stretch of below freezing temperatures will probably concluded on Monday.  Q

As of yesterday, Burlington had been through 19 consecutive days in which the temperature stayed below freezing. That's the longest such spell since a 27 day stretch in January an February, 2015. I'll  have more on this in a separate post. 

It looks like a small pocket of fairly cold air will sweep down from James Bay to somewhere near Maine by early Sunday morning. We'll be on the western edge of that, so Vermont will actually just have some average February weather that day with highs in the 20s to near 30.

But that's OK, because that pocket of cold air will kick off a new storm that will hit Canada's Atlantic provinces. 

Meanwhile, another storm will be developing Sunday in the southeast U.S.  Earlier this week, we thought that storm might come up the coast to give us another slap of snow or mixed precipitation. 

It turns out that newer  Canadian storm will probably deflect that southeast U.S. storm to our south.  We originally thought that southern storm might spread some snow or ice our way Sunday and Monday. Now, it tentatively looks like we're in the clear with that one.  We'll keep you posted if there are any changes, but for now, don't worry about it.

It's a little too soon to know how far above freezing it'll get next week and how long that would last.  Early guesses are the next shot at any substantial precipitation after day won't come along until at least the middle of next week.