Drought Might Dim Vermont Fall Foliage A Little

The August drought  followed by recent rains have caused
 this oddity at a St. Albans, Vermont dog park.
This small tree thinks it's May with new spring growth. 

Now that it's September and the kiddos are back act school, we're really thinking autumn in Vermont. 

You know, apples, and (ugh) pumpkin spice and fall foliage. Which begs the questions: Will the drought blunt our famous fall colors somewhat this year?  

The answer is: Probably. 

Before you spiral into depression over the prospect, it'll still be pretty this fall. Gorgeous like it always is. But, as if is often the case, there will be flaws in the orange, gold and yellow tapestry of our landscape. 

In a few spots, the color is already lost.

Especially on exposed south facing hillsides with thin, rocky soil, the flash drought that developed in August has already wilted leaves or turned them brown or yellow and those leaves are falling off quickly. Luckily, that's not the majority of trees in Vermont, but there's definitely parts of some hillsides that are already brown. Or at least a dull orange or yellow because of the dry weather. 

Many other trees, while still green have lost some leaves. They'll do that to conserve water during droughts. Also, I've seen leaf scorch. That's caused by the drought, too, along with the extreme heat of mid-August that left the edges of leaves on some trees brown, while the center of the leaves are still green. 

Climate change messes up our foliage season. The flash drought that developed over the past month is a classic example.  That climate change also has alter the autumn schedule. 

Peak fall colors arrive a little later in the season than they used to decades ago. It's possible - but not definite - that this year's drought could actually reverse that later trend and make the peak colors a little earlier than they've been in recent years. That'll be especially true if we have a very cool September. We'll see!

OTHER FOLIAGE PROBLEMS

Springtime and the very start of summer was quite wet, and that encouraged some blights to develop on a few trees. The blight causes leaves on some maples and other plants turn brown or black and fall off now. 

The blight has really affected lilac bushes. You see many of them - including one in front of my house -  have brown leaves that have largely already fallen from the bushes. 

Lilacs aren't known for their colorful fall foliage, so this blight won't affect the autumn scenery much.  But those lilacs are looking pretty uncharacteristically ugly right now.  You'll want to rake up and discard the fallen lilac leaves. And if you get a nice day this winter go in and thin your lilac bushes to improve air circulation.

The good news is that next spring the lilacs should all still leaf out and bloom beautifully like they always do.

The drought might mess with our Vermont autumn
colors a little, but didn't cause this problem. The 
emerald ash borers killed these trees near 
Swanton, Vermont. 

Another odd thing I've seen here in northwestern Vermont over the past couple of days is new spring leaves on some bushes.  The drought made leaves drop from some bushes and trees. We've had some welcome rains recently, and now new leaves are appearing, as it it's May, not September. 

Though this isn't great for the trees and bushes, because it's making them use more reserves, most should survive and leaf out again next spring 

However, one very sad, permanent loss to our fall colors is the ongoing demise of our ash trees.  Ash trees have tended to add some beautiful golds and purples to the autumn color palette, which really have helped to make Vermont's foliage season that much more spectacular.

The emerald ash borer has killed or is killing most of the ash trees in large swaths of the state. In parts of the Champlain Valley, stands of ash trees now look like they do in mid-winter. They're completely dead.

The ash borer hasn't affected all of Vermont yet, so our ash trees in many locations will continue to make their contributions to our lucrative foliage season. But, I'm afraid ash trees will soon go the way of the stately elms we had in the mid-20th century and the huge chestnut trees we had around and before 1900. The end of our valuable ash trees is a terrible loss.

All the rest of our forests are getting ready to go dormant for the season, so renewed rains probably won't help much. That's especially true in southeast Vermont, which largely missed out on beneficial rains this past Friday and Saturday. The dry week we're having ahead of those rains is probably worsening the drought conditions in southern parts of the state. 

It's also beginning to look like a series of weather fronts due Thursday night through Saturday might focus the rain once again in the northwestern half of the state. But since that event is a few days away, that scenario could change. 

Despite the fact it's already September, the weather over the next few weeks might renew some of autumn's brilliance. I've heard quite a few observers note if we have a lot of chilly nights and bright sunny days (with adequate rainfall mixed in) during September, leaves will tend to be brighter and more colorful at the end of the month and in October. 

Fall foliage in Vermont is different every year because the weather is different every year. The best places also change every year. A hillside that was amazing last October might look "meh" this year. Or, a vista that was just OK last year will blow your socks off this foliage season. 

But some things never change. Vermont's forest will put on a big show, it'll look fantastic.  We'll be overrun by tourists. Social media influencers will run amok in and near tourist towns. We'll all get to shuffle through drifts of fallen leaves in crisp autumn air. 

As those beautiful leaves swirl in the chilly autumn winds, us Vermonters will glance up at stunning hillsides in our brave little state, and then turn back to the task of buttoning down everything for another long winter.   

 

Foliage Season Brought 2.5 Million Visitors To Vermont

Scenes like this in Underhill Vermont on October 17
drew 2.5 million leaf peepers to the not so Green
Mountain State this autumn.

If you live in Vermont and felt kinda crowded during October, there's a great reason why.  

A new report says 2.5 million leaf peepers roamed the state during the foliage season and left behind a cool $500 million in spending on lodging, restaurants, attractions and other related stuff, reports WPTZ

The numbers aren't final either. As of this weekend, there were still some straggling colorful leaves left over to add a little beauty to our increasingly stick season surroundings. That meant there were a few straggling tourists taking in the last of the foliage. 

WPTZ checked in with some individual businesses to see how they did, and their reporters got the same story state tourism officials were telling them. 

"It was the busiest we've ever seen; I mean, you can still see it's busy, and it just kept on going, we have seen record numbers, and it's amazing We love it," Andrew Tascarella, the floor manager at Shaw's General Store in Stowe told WPTZ. 

In the fall foliage mecca of Woodstock, Vermont, the local Chamber of Commerce said they've also had an incredibly busy autumn. 

It appears people were not deterred by the nationwide reports of severe flooding in the Green Mountain State this summer. While people are still certainly suffering in the destructive aftermath, almost all the state was patched up, repaired and ready for tourists.

The weather was certainly gorgeous in September and October, and that helped. It probably didn't influence people who came here from long distances, seeing how they probably made their travel arrangements well before weather forecasts blared the good news about the sunny skies.

Then again, the bright weather to match the bright foliage probably encouraged those tourists to explore and spend money, rather than holing up in their hotel rooms on cold rainy days.

The fantastic weather also probably encouraged spur of the moment day trippers to take a trip up here to Vermont, I imagine. 

The abnormally warm autumn, the nearly daily sunshine and placid weather kept those colorful leaves on the trees later in the season than they would have if we had our typically stormy, windy fall.  That kept the leaf peepers peeping in Vermont longer than in most years.

This is subjective, but I'd give the quality of this year's foliage a B+.  It wasn't the most brilliant display I can remember, as the bright reds were somewhat lacking. But it was still gorgeously colorful and the tourists definitely got their money's worth.  

The big outbreak of snoliage - colorful leaves with snow covered mountains - that hit mid month was certainly a huge bonus. 

We are now getting into the November quiet before ski season arrives. The bulk of the winter sports folks won't be here for a good month or more. They need snow after all. Much of northern Vermont will get teased by some snow showers tonight that could leave a dusting even in many valleys. 

But record high temperatures are forecast Wednesday and Thursday, so those skis and snowboards probably won't get much use quite yet.  

For those who somehow missed the Vermont fall foliage this summer, what follows is a couple videos I took:

A "snoliage" tour around Cambridge and Underhill, Vermont on October 17. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Next, some driving around northwestern Vermont last week yielded these images. Again, click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Vermont Foresters Think Foliage Season Will Be Gorgeous, Despite (Or Because Of) Wet Summer

Fall foliage in Charlotte, Vermont in October, 2023.
After a rough, wet summer, foresters still expect
the upcoming foliage season to be beautiful.

 The weather is very much like you'd expect in July this week, but if you look at Vermont hillsides, the colors of autumn are starting to creep in. 

So will this year be a dud or a beauty?

Vermont Public recent interviewed Josh Halman, the forest health lead for the Vermont Department of Parks and Recreation. He's one expert who thinks we're in for a good season. 

He has reasons. 

For one thing, the state is certainly not in drought, despite the current stretch of dry weather. 

Soil moisture is still good. Trees were never stressed for want of water this year, and they aren't now as they prepare to go into dormancy. 

Stressed trees sometimes create lackluster foliage, so we're in good shape there. 

On the other hand, if it's too wet, like this summer certainly was, fungus can thrive on the tree leaves. While this doesn't harm the overall health of the trees, it can make leaves turn brown and fall off early in the season, dulling the fall colors. 

While autumn, 2023 was certainly pretty, a few spots suffered because some of Vermont's trademark sugar maples struggled with the fungus. Their leaves, instead of turning brilliant orange and red, in some instances just turned brown and shriveled.

Autumn, 2022 brought very little of that fungus, and that year was subjectively, in my opinion the best in quite a few years. 

The good news is Halman said he has seen much less of the that fungus on sugar maples this year, at least compared to last year. That means the sugar maples should put on a good show. 

Some birch and aspens, however, are having trouble with fungi, so leave on some of those varieties are failing and falling fast. 

Fall foliage season is quite important to Vermont. The summer's floods might not have an effect on the actual foliage, but could limit the number of leaf peepers that come up for the show. 

 Vermont tourism officials and attractions in the state are putting out the word that Vermont is very much open for business, the roads are back open so you can get from Point A to Point B,  The inns and restaurants and corn mazes and such are all ready for visitors. 

There's spots of color already, now that we're into mid-September. That's probably thanks in part to cool weather a week ago. It's gotten unseasonable warm again, and largely sunny, so I think the pace of color change is temporarily slowing slightly. But it will continue on its march to an eventual peak season, as it always does. 

Changes will come rapidly late this month and in early October,. How long foliage season stays gorgeous depends on the weather, of course. . Calm, still days in October will keep it going for quite awhile. Windy rain storms will have the opposite effect. 

No matter how you slice it, though, you should have plenty of opportunities between now and mid to late October to enjoy the color, as we do every autumn. 

 

 

Gloomy Day Turns Into Glorious, Ultra Colorful Surprise: Photo Essay

The big autumn rainbow over St. Albans, Vermont on
Monday. 

 I love what I call "come to pappa" moments in my weather geekdom.

Those are the moments when I don't have to seek out any interesting weather. No effort, no muss, no fuss.  

I had one of those wonderful incidents yesterday, when a quick trip to the door to let the dogs out to do their business led to the glorious surprises you see in this post. 

It had been a chilly, gloomy October day.  The skies all day had been gray and overcast, and sporadic showers kept things damp and dank.  Late in the afternoon, the showers intensified as breaks formed between those rain clouds. 

As the sun headed toward the horizon for the evening, all color broke loose.  The combination of dark clouds, bright sun, foliage was just the background.  A brilliant rainbow, one of the brightest I can remember formed behind the house. 

Another view of yesterday's double rainbow and fall
foliage in St. Albans, Vermont. 

I didn't have to go anywhere to enjoy the ultimate autumn show in Vermont. Just open the door and gawk. 

To best look at the photos, click on each one to make them bigger and easier to see. Scroll down past this verbiage as well to check out all the photos. 

I even took a brief video and posted to YouTube. You can see it below the photos, but if you have a mobile device, you'll want to click on this link to view it. 

I'm not sure if today will bring any more happy weather surprises.  The only new "news" to report is that the summit of Mount Mansfield finally touched 32 degrees this morning, making it the latest first freeze of autumn up there. It broke the old record by a whopping 13 days. 

The weather is forecast to be quite variable for the rest of the week into the weekend. Maybe a recipe for more photogenic weather? We'll find out! 

More photos and video:

Double rainbow, fall foliage, dark clouds Monday afternoon
St. Albans, Vermont 

Sun shines brightly on fall colors late Monday afternoon
as dark clouds and rain loom overhead, St. Albans, Vermont. 

Dark clouds, bright sun and fall foliage, St. Albans, Vermont

Roiling clouds and a shaft of rain are lit it by the setting
sun Monday in St.Albans, Vermont. 

Video: Rainbow, setting sun, clouds and foliage in St. Albans, Vermont Monday:

Stick Season To Arrive Saturday In Vermont Amid Continued Warmth

Foliage a bit pas peak but still gorgeous Tuesday at the
Spaulding Farm near Fairfield, Vermont. 

 Enjoy the fall foliage while you can here in Vermont, as it'll last just a few more days before the leaves really start to tumble.

Since it's a late foliage season, the leaves do tend to drop fast about now. Driving around rural Franklin County, Vermont yesterday, I sometimes hit blizzards of falling leaves despite light winds.  

Much of the Northeast Kingdom is now past peak, and a good chunk of the rest of Vermont will follow suit, especially Saturday.  

Why Saturday? Because that day will bring us the first substantial storm in two weeks. It looks like we'll have gusty winds and a good dose of rain Saturday, and that will bring down many more leaves. 

On the bright side, it's been dry this month, and we need the rain, so a rainy Saturday might be a good thing. 

Plus, it looks like we'll have another long dry period after Saturday's rain, so we'll take what we can get. 

I don't mean to be so gloomy about the foliage, of course. After Saturday's wind and rain, there still will be plenty of color and beauty in the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys and in lower elevations of southwestern Vermont. If you can't leaf peep until Sunday, head to those locations. 

So far this has been a remarkably warm month, too. In Burlington, only two nights have gotten below 50 degrees. This time of year, normal lows are in the low 40s in the Champlain Valley and upper 30s elsewhere. Frost is common this time of year. Usually. Not this year. 

Fall foliage near Fairfield, Vermont Tuesday. Wind and rain
forecast for this Saturday will bring down many
of these leaves, bringing us toward stick season.

Today is also likely to be eighth day in a row where the temperature reached at least 68 degrees. It's very common to get highs in the 50s even the 40s this time of year. 

The summit of Mount Mansfield, the mountain pictured in this post, still has not had a freeze yet. 

As WPTZ meteorologist Tyler Jankowski noted on Twitter, this will be by far the latest first autumn freeze on record for Mount Mansfield.

The previous record for latest first freeze on the summit was October 6, 2011.  It's now October 13 and the coldest it's been on Mount Mansfield this fall is 37 degrees.

The summit might finally see a freeze Sunday or Monday.  Maybe.

This warmth will last until Saturday. Especially at night. Lows in the Champlain Valley through Friday night will be close to 60 degrees, which is close to normal July nights.  Daytimes will come close to 70 again through Friday. 

Even after the approaching cold front goes by Saturday night, it won't get that cold in Vermont. At least  October standards.

Highs Sunday through Tuesday will be in the 50s, which is pretty close to normal.  Chances are most areas will continue to avoid frost at least through next Tuesday. 

If the last half of October remains relatively warm, we'll have another month among several this year that will score among the top ten warmest.  We'll see! 

Later Foliage Seasons And Polly's Pancake Parlor

A very pretty view from Williams Hill in Richmond, 
Vermont Sunday still shows some late season green
mixed with the fall foliage. Autumn colors are 
generally coming later than they uses to due to
climate change. 

 By my estimation, this is another later than average fall foliage season in Vermont.

At least, its late compared to what I can remember decades ago.  Most foliage seasons in recent years are later than they were in, say the 1960s and 1970s.  

I know that's subjective, but there you go. Scientists looking at this agree with me, and have the receipts. And those scientists have Polly's Pancake Parlor to thank for giving them a good bit of data to go on. 

Polly's Pancake Parlor in scenic Sugar Hill, New Hampshire has been there since 1938. It's an extremely popular place, and the restaurant is understandably slammed  this time of year as tourists flock to the White Mountains to check out the fall foliage. 

As the Washington Post describes it, so many visitors asked the owners of Polly's Pancake Parlor when peak foliage normally hits, they started keeping records in 1975.  They keep those daily recors to this day. Polly's staff eyeballs the landscape, noting when the leaves were mostly red, orange and yellow instead of green outside the restaurant. 

According to the Washington Post:

"Environmental scientist Stephanie Spera was thrilled when she saw the observations, which are posted on the restaurant's website. She said this is the 'longest record of fall foliage that she has found."

Satellite records of fall foliage only go back to 2000, so they're not nearly as much help.  Spera is also using tourists' photos of Acadia National Park and Mount Desert Island in Maine to compare foliage seasons dating back decades.  

Spera and others have concluded that New England's fall foliage season is now happening a full week later than it was in the 1950s.

Here's the Washington Post again:

"The delay is partly linked to warmer temperatures, particularly at night, (Spera) said. During the day, leaves use the sunlight to produce sugars. Cooler nights help trap the sugars in the leaf. The sugars lead to the production of pigments, such as anthrocyanins, which produce the brilliant red seen in maple leaves."

I can tell you we've certainly have had warm nights this year, as a for instance. The coldest it's been so far in Burlington, Vermont this fall is 45 degrees.  Nine of the first eleven days of October have failed to drop below 50 degrees. 

Burlington's normal low this time of year is in the lower 40s and we've usually had our first frost of the season by now.  Not this year. This is the latest in the season the temperature has stayed above 40 degrees since at least 1948, according to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.

As of this morning, peak foliage is occurring in most of Vermont, with areas of the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys still relatively green. Only the coldest areas of the Northeast Kingdom and high elevations are past peak. A few decades ago, most of Vermont would be past peak by now.

From what I've seen anecdotally, the colors in Vermont this year are gorgeous. As always, a few pockets are a little dull and subdued, while other larger areas are almost vibrant enough to make your eyes hurt.

Long term, in the coming decade, this fall warming trend isn't great for New England fall foliage watchers.

First off, extreme weather can dull the colors. If the summer is too wet, a fungus can take over and make leaves just turn brown and drop.  The general trend with climate change in New England is wetter summers, the droughts of 2020 and the early part of summer 2021 notwithstanding.

Even longer term, it will become too warm for some of the trees that create the most brilliance, like sugar maples.  Species from further south, like poplar and oak will start to replace maples. Poplar and oak don't have the same brilliant fall colors as current native trees do. 

This year, though tardy, seems to be brilliant though. So get out there and enjoy.  The great weather forecast I mentioned yesterday hasn't changed. The rest of the week should be gorgeous

Northern Vermont Gets A Welcome Soaking; Southern Vermont Next

By October, Vermont gardens tend to look shabby, but
the colors of lingering flowers and changing leaves
pop out in the gloom and drizzle of a rainy weekend
here in St. Albans, Vermont

 I actually don't mind autumn days like we had in northern Vermont on Saturday. 

It was dark. And overcast. It rained all day. There was fog. It was gloomy.  A great day to get stuff done indoors.  

Today won't be all that much better. Sorry sun lovers!

However, northern Vermont should welcome the rain in particular, as it's still on the dry side, with drought lingering near the International Border.

The rain, while drenching, surely helped ease the drought and dryness, but still wasn't enough to resolve all of the groundwater shortages.   

One unofficial measure of this is the Woof River, which is what we call a small stream that runs past my house in St. Albans.  There's been no water in it for months.  With this rain, there is now the tiniest of trickles in the Woof River, but it's not flowing like it should.   We still need even more rain, on top of the 1.25 inches we've received so far here this weekend. 

Still, it was the style of rain Saturday that definitely helps. Rather than short bursts of downpours that quickly run off, this was a slow, steady wetting that tends to soak in nicely.

The trees are starting to go dormant for the winter, too, so they won't be taking up as much moisture from the ground as they would in late spring and summer. So more of the water will be stored in the ground. We need a few more autumn days like Saturday up here by the Canadian border. 

Though it will stay gloomy, probably through Monday, northern Vermont probably won't get much more rain.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington is thinking maybe a quarter of an inch through tomorrow.

Southern Vermont, which got little or no rain Saturday, will have their turn for a soaking today and tomorrow.

A weather front had stalled over northern Vermont all day Saturday and little disturbances rode northwest to southeast along it, keeping the rain going from the pre-dawn hours Saturday to dawn today. 

That front is now slowly sinking southward, and those pesky little disturbances are still riding along this front. That will aim plenty of rain through the southern half of Vermont. 

That part of Vermont is certainly not suffering from drought after a sopping wet summer.  However, September was drier, so the upshot to all the southern Vermont rain will be.......pretty much nothing. 

The rain  - amounting to more than an inch in several areas - will water any lingering autumn garden plants, and that's about it. Precipitation amounts will fall short of being able to produce any real flooding, so that's good news.

The gloom at first glance might not seem wonderful for those of you who want to go out and view the rapidly developing fall foliage.  But give it a chance. Get out there!  The dark skies really make the colors pop. Those colors almost shimmer in the rain.  Patches of fog add contrast, as do grey clouds and shrouded mountains in the background behind bright red, yellow and orange leaves.

But if you insist on sunshine for your fall foliage, you're in luck. It'll start to clear, Tuesday, and skies will be mainly sunny for most of the rest of the week.  And it will be warm, with daytime highs mid to late week hitting 70 or better in many towns. 

The rain and upcoming sun to me is giving us a classic, gorgeous start to a Vermont October.