Vermont's Last Shot At Rain Diminishes, Severe Threat Southeast

Forecast rainfall for day. Most of Vermont only gets
 a third to a half inch, with more possible southeast
This will be the last appreciable rain for possibly
as long as two weeks or more, so the drought
will worsen again. 

As feared, meteorologists have backed off on the amount of badly needed rain we'll get today. Plus, the southeast corner of Vermont is at risk for severe storms. 

We'll take any rain we can get, and it will rain all over Vermont today. So that will very temporarily halt the drought's worsening trend. But after today, it's over.  The sky faucets shut off again and we go back to rainless skies. 

After today, almost no rain is anticipated for at least a week, save for some scattered sprinkles Sunday and again maybe Thursday. 

The forecast weather pattern is atrocious for drought relief possibly through the rest of the month. It features one dry, huge high pressure system after another coming through, with weak, moisture-starved cold fronts announcing each one. 

I hope the following is wrong, but it's possible (not definite!) that Vermont could receive only a half inch or less of rain through the rest of the month after today.  The already nasty drought would get much, much worse under that scenario. 

We'd better hope for some surprises coming up. Perhaps a dying tropical storm could pass by. Or one of those weak cold fronts could unexpectedly pick up some good moisture from the Atlantic Ocean of Gulf of Mexico. But so far I don't see it. 

Time to do rain dances, folks!

TODAY'S RAIN/SEVERE THREAT

In general, today's cold front will bring a third to three quarters of an inch of rain. 

The Northeast Kingdom appears to be the region most cheated by this round of rain. Or lack of it.  That region got mostly just 0.05 to 0.2 inches of rain early Friday. In today's round, only another third to a half inch of rain is expected. 

Northwest Vermont will probably receive even less rain today, maybe a third of an inch or a little under that. But the rain there Thursday night and early Friday was generous, dumping as much as 1.53 inches in Fairfax, 1.3 inches in St Albans and close to an inch elsewhere in the northern half of the Champlain Valley. 

Severe thunderstorms, maybe even a brief 
tornado are possible in the dark green and
especially yellow areas of this map today. 
Notice it clips southeast Vermont.

Plus, parts of northwest Vermont got some bonus showers overnight. Burlington had about a quarter inch around midnight and my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, collected 0.45 inches on top of the 1.3 inches from Thursday night. 

Once again, the rest of Vermont, which needs the rain more than the northwest corner of the state, missed out on last night's showers.  

The most rain today would fall over far southeast Vermont. That's good because they've missed out on a lot of the paltry rains we've gotten.  Places like Brattleboro and Springfield could see anywhere from 0.75 to an inch of rain if the downpours line up just right. 

Southeast Vermont could pay a price for those good rains in the form of severe thunderstorms. The rain in northwest Vermont overnight was the actual cold front, which has temporarily stalled around Vermont,

In the northwestern two thirds of the Green Mountain State, it will just be rain today, with perhaps a rumble of thunder in central Vermont.

However, in the humid air ahead of the front, a narrow risk zone of severe storms extends from New Jersey through central and southern New England and on into Maine and New Hampshire. This severe weather risk zone clips southern Vermont, south and east of a line from Manchester to White River Junction, with the greatest threat south and east of a line from Bennington to Springfield. 

The atmospheric dynamics are great, so a band of strong to possibly severe storms should come through those southeast regions this afternoon.  There's going to be some spin in the atmosphere, too, so that could generate a few supercell thunderstorms. Which introduces the low but not zero chance of a brief tornado or two down in extreme southeast Vermont, and in southern New Hampshire, southwestern Maine and northwest Massachusetts. 

The rough weather should be out of Vermont before evening. You'll notice temperatures dropping statewide this afternoon, so if you're going out, bring a hoodie along with the rain gear. 

Tomorrow should be cool and partly sunny, except mostly cloudy in the northern mountains. There could be some brief, light showers, especially in the northern Greens.