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| If this National Weather Service forecast rainfall map comes true, that will be great. Two weather fronts will come through by Saturday night. Combined, they might produce roughly an inch of rain in Vermont. But the wetter of the two fronts is on Saturday and the heavier rain might or might not pan out. |
Today in Vermont we'll deal with bright sun most of the day, rock bottom humidity, and a gusty breeze which will feel great. But those very conditions will give the Green Mountain State probably its highest risk of brush and forest fires of the year.
Winds have already picked up in the Champlain Valley and that will follow soon in the rest of the state. By afternoon, winds will gust to 25 mph in much of the state and over 35 mph in the Champlain Valley.
At the same time as the winds peak this afternoon, the relative humidity will dip down to around 30 percent. A dry, arid, windy day. You know what that means, and so does the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.
Just read their special weather statement for today: "If any fires were to start, the weather and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get out of control and be careful to contain."
Even places that got a decent wet down last weekend are at risk. Last Friday and Saturday, we received 0.55 inches of rain here in St. Albans, By Wednesday, everything underfoot was super dry again, and plants were trying to wilt again.
Today's not the day for your backyard campfire near or in the woods, carelessly flicking your cigarette out the car window or setting off fireworks.
SOME RAIN RELIEF
The good news is at least some rain is on the way. And quickly.
If God forbid any fires start today in the Vermont woods, or in neighboring states or southern Quebec, enough rain will come tonight to start controlling the blazes.
Clouds should start to fairly abruptly obscure the sun late this afternoon in western Vermont and evening in the east. Rain should start maybe two or four hours after the clouds arrive.
Tonight's rain comes courtesy of the first of two cold fronts coming at us. This first one will be fairly strong in New York State, giving areas from the Adirondacks west a good half inch or more of rain.
By the time the front makes it into Vermont, it will be weakening, like so many weather systems have this dry summer. Expect maybe a third of an inch of rain in the Champlain Valley and northern Green Mountains and a quarter inch or less (probably less most places) elsewhere in Vermont.
The rain will be lightest in the driest parts of the Green Mountain State, so that's not good. The new weekly U.S. Drought Monitor comes out later today which would have updates on how Vermont is doing with its dry conditions. I hope to post an update sometime between later today and tomorrow morning.
A SECOND SHOT?
We still have one more shot at another dose of rain Saturday. We hope.
The rain from the first front should clear out early Friday and we should have another partly sunny, warm day, with highs well into the 70s to around 80.
Then the next front comes along. There is still hope this second front will be wetter than the first, but there's still discrepancies in various models. Which means it's still iffy.
But if this morning's forecast holds, this second front could dump a half inch to as much as an inch of rain on much of the Green Mountain State. If that happens, it would be fantastic. It's too bad the rain would hit on Saturday, but we'll have to take it when we get it.
The second front has more moisture along it and a bigger temperature gradient than the first, which is why we hope the rain is heavier with Saturday front.
As the National Weather Service in South Burlington explains the stronger front and the fact it's passing through during the day makes forecasting the high temperatures Saturday much more tricky than for most days.
If it comes through early, it would be a cool day. If it's later than expected, it'll be warm. For now, they're going for highs barely near 70 northwest to the low 80s south and east.
RAIN SHUTS OFF AGAIN
After Saturday, the rain will go away for a good long while again. So, unfortunately, the hoped-for rain over the next couple of day is not a shift toward wetter weather pattern. It looks like only sprinkles or very light rain showers will come through on a few days through at least the middle of the month.
The only hope is that long range forecasts are a little less accurate, so we can just hope for a wet surprise later this month. But it's nothing we can count on.
It will be a cooler weather pattern, too. At least for most of next week. We're heading deeper into September so the chances of warm days are dwindling. It'll stay pleasant enough, with highs in the 60s and low or even mid 70s most of next week. But we'll probably have very few super warm, summer days until, well, next summer.
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