Probably The Biggest, Worst Fire Risk Of The Year Today In Vermont

If this National Weather Service forecast rainfall
map comes true, that will be great. Two weather
fronts will come through by Saturday night.
Combined, they might produce roughly an
inch of rain in Vermont. But the wetter of
the two fronts is on Saturday and the heavier
rain might or might not pan out. 

Sometimes a nice day can be a bit dangerous, too. 

Today in Vermont we'll deal with bright sun most of the day, rock bottom humidity, and a gusty breeze which will feel great. But those very conditions will give the Green Mountain State probably its highest risk of brush and forest fires of the year. 

Winds have already picked up in the Champlain Valley and that will follow soon in the rest of the state. By afternoon, winds will gust to 25 mph in much of the state and over 35 mph in the Champlain Valley.  

At the same time as the winds peak this afternoon, the relative humidity will dip down to around 30 percent. A dry, arid, windy day. You know what that means, and so does the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Just read their special weather statement for today: "If any fires were to start, the weather and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get out of control and be careful to contain." 

Even places that got a decent wet down last weekend are at risk.  Last Friday and Saturday, we received 0.55 inches of rain here in St. Albans, By Wednesday, everything underfoot was super dry again, and plants were trying to wilt again.  

Today's not the day for your backyard campfire near or in the woods, carelessly flicking your cigarette out the car window or setting off fireworks. 

SOME RAIN RELIEF

The good news is at least some rain is on the way. And quickly. 

If God forbid any fires start today in the Vermont woods, or in neighboring states or southern Quebec, enough rain will come tonight to start controlling the blazes. 

Clouds should start to fairly abruptly obscure the sun late this afternoon in western Vermont and evening in the east. Rain should start maybe two or four hours after the clouds arrive. 

Tonight's rain comes courtesy of the first of two cold fronts coming at us. This first one will be fairly strong in New York State, giving areas from the Adirondacks west a good half inch or more of rain. 

By the time the front makes it into Vermont, it will be weakening, like so many weather systems have this dry summer. Expect maybe a third of an inch of rain in the Champlain Valley and northern Green Mountains and a quarter inch or less (probably less most places) elsewhere in Vermont. 

The rain will be lightest in the driest parts of the Green Mountain State, so that's not good. The new weekly U.S. Drought Monitor comes out later today which would have updates on how Vermont is doing with its dry conditions. I hope to post an update sometime between later today and tomorrow morning. 

A SECOND SHOT?

We still have one more shot at another dose of rain Saturday. We hope. 

The rain from the first front should clear out early Friday and we should have another partly sunny, warm day, with highs well into the 70s to around 80.

Then the next front comes along. There is still hope this second front will be wetter than the first, but there's still discrepancies in various models. Which means it's still iffy. 

But if this morning's forecast holds, this second front could dump a half inch to as much as an inch of rain on much of the Green Mountain State. If that happens, it would be fantastic. It's too bad the rain would hit on Saturday, but we'll have to take it when we get it.

The second front has more moisture along it and a bigger temperature gradient than the first, which is why we hope the rain is heavier with Saturday front. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington explains the stronger front and the fact it's passing through during the day makes forecasting the high temperatures Saturday much more tricky than for most days. 

If it comes through early, it would be a cool day. If it's later than expected, it'll be warm. For now, they're going for highs barely near 70 northwest to the low 80s south and east. 

RAIN SHUTS OFF AGAIN

After Saturday, the rain will go away for a good long while again. So,  unfortunately, the hoped-for rain over the next couple of day is not a shift toward wetter weather pattern. It looks like only sprinkles or very light rain showers will come through on a few days through at least the middle of the month. 

The only hope is that long range forecasts are a little less accurate, so we can just hope for a wet surprise later this month. But it's nothing we can count on. 

It will be a cooler weather pattern, too. At least for most of next week. We're heading deeper into September so the chances of warm days are dwindling. It'll stay pleasant enough, with highs in the 60s and low or even mid 70s most of next week. But we'll probably have very few super warm, summer days until, well, next summer.  

Saturday Morning Vermont Update: Iffy Forecast On Big Storms Late Tonight, But Definite Dangerous Heat Coming

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a slight chance
(Level 2 of 5 risk) in New York and a marginal chance
(Level 1 of 5 risk) in Vermont of severe storms late 
tonight. There's more uncertainty in that storm 
outlook than normal due to an unusual weather pattern.

As the headline suggests, we have kind of a complicated forecast for the potential for possibly strong storms late tonight and Sunday. 

But there's no question dangerous heat is on the way for later Sunday through Tuesday.

We'll get to all that day by day as we usually do here. 

But first, we'll check in with the winds of Friday.

Those strong west winds Friday morning and afternoon led to tragedy across the pond from Vermont in Chazy, New York. 

Strong gusts toppled a large tree in Chazy onto a truck occupied by Chazy Central Rural School senior and star softball play Kennedy Columbus, 18, of Chazy, WPTZ reported.  The impact of the falling tree made the overturn and hit a utility pole, causing power lines to arc.  Columbus was set to graduate from high school next week. 

Here in Vermont, the gusty winds had power outages across the state peaking at about 3,500 at around 11 a.m. Friday.  

TODAY:

That cold front provided us a welcome clear and cool night last night. It was in the upper 40s and low 50s at dawn across Vermont this morning. I put on some fleece in the house early this morning for a time. I won't need that fleece in the coming few days, that's for sure. 

Most Saturdays over the past few months in Vermont have had bad weather, so today's going to be a treat. Highs will reach to near 80 under mostly sunny skies and comfortable humidity levels.

But our long streak of consecutive weekends with rain will continue late tonight. However, we still don't know whether that rain come in the form benign moderate showers or  dangerous thunderstorms.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING:

This is the complicated part of the forecast, so bear with me. 

A cluster of powerful storms formed in North Dakota yesterday. These things are known as Mesoscale Convective Systems or MCS.  

This thing spun off at least 13 tornadoes in North Dakota and caused some towns in that state to experience straight line winds of more than 90 mph.  

The MCS continued on across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, on across Lake Superior and was headed into Ontario early this morning.  It's  running along the northern edge of extreme heat in the central U.S. and cooler air to the north.

That extreme heat is heading north and east toward Ontario, southern Quebec and of course us here in New England, so the MCS or a redeveloped version of it should continue on through Ontario and southwestern Quebec by tonight.

The big question is how this will affect us here in Vermont. 

Early estimates are the core of this dangerous complex of storms would pass through Quebec, up near or north of Montreal late tonight. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington explained it in their Saturday morning forecast discussion, there is sometimes a LOT of instability in these overnight situations just south of the core of the MCS. 

That could lead to some strong to severe thunderstorms after midnight and early Sunday. One scenario is that those severe thunderstorms would remain north of the border and be Quebec's problem. Mostly northern and central Vermont would just get some moderate rain and some dying garden variety thunderstorms.

Or, some of those severe storms could come south of the border, causing locally damaging winds and a chaotic early morning of lots of lightning, loud bangs of thunder, and torrential rains.

Outflow from the Quebec storms could briefly leave a cool pool of air aloft over Vermont Sunday morning,  which would then start to get overwhelmed by the hot, humid air coming in. Could this set off a few more strong storms for parts of Sunday? Possible, but we don't know.

These types of storms on the leading edge of hot air are some of the most difficult weather events to forecast. We won't know for sure what's going on until the system is practically on top of us. Which would be late tonight. 

Most of us are trying to sleep at that hour. So one way or another, we'll probably be surprised. 

THE HEAT

We do know the hot, humid air will blast in during the day Sunday. There's already heat advisories for the some of valleys of southern Vermont for the afternoon as temperatures there climb to near 90 degrees amid stifling humidity. 

The hot, muggy air will be firmly in place Sunday night and Monday. 

A rare for Vermont extreme heat watch is already in effect for the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys Monday. Actual temperatures in those valleys Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s, but it will feel like it's 105 or so out there. 

The rest of Vermont will be dangerously hot, too. As we've previously mentioned, this will go through Tuesday. 

I'll have  more on the heat wave in upcoming posts, but I figure we'll get through the storm potential for late tonight and Sunday first. 

A Shot At Another Vermont Northern Lights Display Tonight - If It Clears Up

Another shot at northern lights over Vermont tonight?
They could well appear - if the clouds clear up. 

 It looks like Vermont - and much of the rest of the northern hemisphere - has another excellent shot of seeing the northern lights again tonight.  

The sun is very active and yet another geomagnetic storm erupted from the sun, which can cause the aurora. 

I know I indicated in a post last Saturday that these would happen that night, and nothing materialized. 

But Sunday night, Vermont was treated to a brief, big display before a cold front with showers and thunderstorms cut the view short.

But some people in northern New York were able to capture photos of the aurora with lightning flashing in the clouds to the west. Very impressive. 

Last weekend's timing with the northern lights shows that they're not always that predictable.

The big thing potentially blocking the view tonight is clouds. It's been an overcast day across most of the Green Mountain State, and the clouds will be slow to clear tonight. 

The best shot at clearing skies are in the valleys of southwest and southeast Vermont. Also, the later it gets tonight and early tomorrow, the better chances of it clearing up. 

Of course, this is a double-edged sword. If it clears up earlier than expected tonight, we have a greater opportunity for us to see the show. But the earlier it clears up, the greater the chances of it getting cold enough by dawn for a frost that would hurt your late season garden.

Frost advisories are up tonight and early tomorrow for Rutland, Windham and Bennington counties because clouds should break up earlier tonight in those parts of the state. 

Whether or not it's cloudy, the most likely time for the northern lights overnight would be sometime between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m.  

Great Chance Of Northern Lights Tonight, But Clouds In Vermont Might Hinder View

A fairly conservative aurora forecast from NOAA.
People north go the red line from southern Oregon to
Long Island could see them. Some forecasts have people
in places like Texas and Alabama seeing the aurora.

 One of the biggest solar storms in decades seems like it's about to unleash one of the best northern lights displays in recent years. 

A geomagnetic storm from the sun that erupted this week appears to be the strongest since 2005. That puts most of the northern hemisphere in line for a potentially spectacular aurora display overnight.

If the skies are clear at the right time overnight, people as far south as Alabama could see a peek of the aurora. States closer to the Canadian border might find skies largely lit up by flickering greens, reds and other colors. 

For us in Vermont, we are geographically located nicely to see this display. Unfortunately, we're not meteorologically in a perfect place.   

This is Vermont, after all. So of course it might be partly to mostly cloudy overnight into the wee hours of the morning. So a grand view of the aurora is iffy but definitely possible.  

We lucked out with mostly clear skies during this year's big event - the total eclipse of the sun back on April 8 -- but our luck won't hold for this event, it seems. 

It does seem every time there's northern lights, it's cloudy in Vermont. At least tonight most of us won't have a complete overcast. 

There is some hope. Skies might not be entirely cloudy.  Some dry air is bleeding south from Quebec, and that could  give us some hope. I notice early this evening from my perch in St. Albans, Vermont the sky is blue looking north toward Canada. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington predicted this evening that skies over northern Vermont after dark will become at least partly clear. Cloud cover might only cover 30 percent of the sky near the Canadian border. Central and southern Vermont look like they'll be somewhat cloudier. 

Most of the nation is expecting clear skies overnight, so many people will see this event. Everybody except the Northeast, Great Lakes and parts of the Southwest should be clear. So at least we'll see a lot of cool photos from other places. 

You might see the northern lights anytime after dark tonight. The best chances of seeing a display are probably between midnight and 4 a.m. Saturday.   

In places in the northern hemisphere where it's already night, some spectacular photos are coming in. Social media is ablaze with wild aurora photos from places like Russia, Germany, Austria, Poland the the UK. 

Most of the photos are taken with a long exposure, so anything you might see probably won't be as wild as you see on social media. But it still could be gorgeous

The geomagnetic storm isn't all fun and games and beauty. This is a strong one after all, so it's messing with the Earth's magnetic field. It could cause power outages, internet failures, GPS wonkiness and radio interference. It could also disrupt the orbit of some satellites. 

Widespread problems aren't expected, though.

The geomagnetic storm will probably continue much of the weekend, which opens up the possibility of another display Saturday night. Here in Vermont, Saturday night is looking cloudier than tonight. 

 

THREE Vermont Snowstorms Within A Week? It's Looking Possible, Starting This Evening

The latest snowfall forecast map from the National 
Weather Service office in South Burlington, issued
early this morning, has slightly increased snowfall
in some parts of northern Vermont. But some low
elevations in southern Vermont could get cheated
out of a full snowstorm by a little too much warm air.

 It looks like the weather in Vermont is finally flipping solidly into winter.  It won't be that cold, at least not yet, but things are definitely looking snowier than they have until now.  

We really do have the possibility of three snowstorms between now and the end of next week. While none of them look like blockbusters and there's no guarantee we'll actually get the three storms, things are looking that way. 

The first one is imminent, starting mid-afternoon in southwestern Vermont and spreading northeastward across the entire state by evening. 

STORM #1

A winter weather advisory is up for all of Vermont for an expected four to eight inches of snow between this afternoon and Friday evening.  Some of the mountains and ski resorts will probably get a little more than that. 

sI do still have some questions about whether this will be all snow, and also the consistency of the snow. As I've been saying all along, there's not much cold air to work with. Plus, as I write up this post this morning, it's a little warmer than originally forecast. 

As of 8 a.m. temperatures for many of us were in the low 30s, and will probably sneak into the mid-30s before the precipitation arrives. 

So, this might start out as a mix or even a bit of rain in the warmest valleys before flipping to snow. I even wonder if the toastiest places, like Bennington, Pownal, Vernon, Brattleboro, will see more than two or three slushy inches. Even valley floors as far north as Rutland could see less than four inches out of this. 

For the rest of us, it's still looking like mostly a wet snow for the initial thump this evening. In northern Vermont, don't be too alarmed if it starts with a few rain drops mixed in. Forecasters think it will flip to snow. 

The snow will come down pretty hard this evening and roads will get dicey fast. Remember, a wet snow is often more slippery than a dry powdery snow on the roads, so keep that in mind. Plus, for awhile, it will snow hard enough so that plow trucks might have a little trouble keeping up with it. 

On top of that, the wet snow could cause a few power outages, especially on the east slopes of the southern and central Green Mountains, where it will snow heavily and fast for a little while. My advice is get home from work or wherever late this afternoon and stay in tonight.

The snow will lighten up or even occasionally stop late tonight and before dawn Friday as the coastal low zips away. The old original storm from the Plains will wander overhead Friday, so snow will resume during the morning and continue well into the afternoon for many of us. 

The Friday snow won't come down as heavily as what happens this evening but you'll still want to be on your toes if you're out driving.

By the way, that parent low from the Midwest will do something weird today. It's expected to set off a few severe thunderstorms, and possibly a brief tornado or two in Ohio today. That's awfully far north for January. 

STORM #2

The weather pattern is slowly transitioning away from the very warm conditions most of the nation has had this month to a colder one. That is pushing the storm track, at least for now, further east. Instead of storms going by to our west and giving us rain, they seem to want to go just to our east to keep Vermont on the colder, snowier side.

There's no guarantees with this.  Storms could come just far enough inland to give us a mix or go to far to the east to give us much of anything. But so far, Storm #2 looks promising. 

This one looks like it wants to form in the western Gulf of Mexico Saturday night, grab a huge boatload of moisture from the Gulf, then rocket northeastward toward New England. It would reach us Sunday night and Monday. 

Storm #2 looks stronger and windier than the one we're getting tonight. With any nor'easter, you need to be exactly in the sweet spot north and west of the storm center when it comes by.  It's too soon to tell for sure if we'll actually be in that sweet spot, but it certainly looks like it might. 

Even if that happens this won't be a blockbuster, either. The storm will be moving so fast it won't have time to linger and give us a huge dump. However, the potential is there for a snowfall that's a little bigger than the one we're anticipating tonight and tomorrow. 

STORM #3

Storm #3 looks like it might be a rinse and repeat of Storm #2. Like Storm #2, it will gather itself in the western Gulf of Mexico and grab yet another boatload of moisture. 

Like Storm #2, Storm #3 would speed basically up Interstate 95 into New England by Wednesday night. Since this storm is nearly a week away, it's too soon to tell whether it would take an inland track to give us a messy mix, or go perfectly along the coast to give Vermont another decent snow dump, or go too far east to give us much. 

Current forecasts suggest either a good snow or a mix but a LOT can change in the forecast over the next several days. 

After Storm #3 passes, the weather pattern will have basically completed its transition and we'll likely end up with the coldest air we've seen since Christmas or possibly even nippier than that. The colder weather will keep the snow on the ground, so the ski areas will no doubt see a needed boost in business. 

 This colder air and weather pattern might shift the storm track further east to make us drier. Still, there's a slight chance of a nice big Storm #4 about 10 to 12 days from now.  

 Storm #4 is just a gleam in a long range forecaster's eye, so don't count on it. But it is an active weather pattern.