Montreal, Quebec City Endured Ugly Ice Storm While Warm Thaw Continued South Of The Border

While rather warm temperatures continued Wednesday
south of the border, Montreal and other areas of 
Quebec endured a day and evening long ice storm.

While places south of the border were basking in relative warmth Wednesday, Quebec was enduring an ice storm. 

Temperatures remained solidly below freezing in Montreal as freezing rain fell all day into the night. 

Even toward midnight, when temperatures in northwestern Vermont soared into the low 60s, Montreal remained stubbornly at 30 degrees, or minus 1 Celsius.

The result in Quebec was widespread travel trouble, closed schools and businesses and power outages.  Among the schools closes were Concordia and McGill universities. 

As of around 9:15 a.m. Thursday more than 212,000 homes and businesses were still without power in Quebec. The number of outages was down to about 65,000 by 4 p.m. today. 

Dozens of flights were canceled in Montreal and Quebec City. 

A similar but worse ice storm hit in April 2023. While trees collapsed under the weight of ice and power flickered out throughout Montreal and other areas of Quebec, areas just south of the Canadian border had thunderstorms and temperatures in the 40s on that occasion. 

So that's twice in three years northern Vermont just barely dodged very, very icy bullets  

Thursday Afternoon Update: After Today's Hints Of Spring, Vermont Braces For Tomorrow's Snow'

Updated storm total map for tomorrow's storm.
Orange areas get eight inches or more Blue areas
are five inches or less. Expect some changes to
the forecast by tomorrow. The storm might end up
seeming worse than these totals suggest because
the initial surge of snow will come down hard. 

I hope you enjoyed our hints of spring this afternoon. Winter still looks like it will return with a vengeance tomorrow. 

Under strong sunshine, most places got into the mid 30s to around 40 today. An exception was right along the Canadian border, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley where temperatures held near 32 degrees. 

Now for our Thursday evening storm update:

If anything, the amount of snow we'll get has ticked up just a little since this morning's forecast. 

The storm responsible for all this is in the Midwest. It's quite vigorous, judging from the tornado watch in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky this afternoon.  The storm has prompted some flood watch in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, too. 

The storm will be weakened some by the time it gets closer to us, but it will still pack a punch when it arrives. 

 The snow will come at us from southwest to northeast, hitting the Bennington area first early in the afternoon. By 4 p.m give or take it will be along and south and west of Interstate 89. The snow will then fill in toward the Northeast Kingdom by dark or so. Stay tuned for updates as the timing might change a little.

The storm will be more intense than the predicted snow totals suggest. Once the snow arrives, it'll very quickly go from flurries to very heavy snow, piling up at a rate of an inch or more per hour. It still looks it might start off mixed with rain in the lower valleys but will quickly go to snow.

You won't want to be on the roads when this arrives. The initial burst of heavy snow will be wet an heavy. That kind of snow compacts under car tires to create a particularly slick variety of ice. I anticipate big tie ups on the Interstate with a lot of slide offs and potential crashes once this hits.Like I said this morning, if you can work from home tomorrow instead of going into the office, do that. 

As expected, the National Weather Service has updated all the winter alerts for Friday The southeastern quarter of Vermont and the Green Mountains from the Massachusetts border north to about Sugarbush are under a winter storm warning from late Friday morning to Saturday morning. 

The southeastern Adirondacks of New York and southern New Hampshire are also under a winter storm warning. Everybody under the warning should get a storm total of 6 to 10 inches 

Winter storm warnings are usually issued when there's an expectation of at least six inches of snow. The rest of the region is under a winter weather advisory for four to seven inches of snow. (Forecaster think some areas will see six inches of snow in the advisory area, but not everyone will. 

The initial burst of heavy, wet snow will account for most of the accumulation with this thing.  You will be shoveling wet cement when it comes time to clear sidewalks and driveways. 

Overnight Friday and into Saturday, our storm will weaken rapidly as a new storm gets going along the New England coast and then goes quickly out to sea. Light snow will continue into Saturday, mostly in the north and mountains. The consistency of the snow overnight Friday and into Saturday will be nice and fluffy. That will give us a bit of a break, anyway. 

There's no great surge of frigid air coming in after this storm for a change. Highs Saturday will approach 30. Under partly cloudy skies Sunday, we should make it into the mid-30s.

That nor'easter  I mentioned this morning for Monday still looks like a miss for Vermont. 

 

Decent Thump Of Snow In Vermont/New England Later Today. Evening Commute To Snarl

Latest National Weather snow prediction map, covering
this morning through Thursday morning. Most of us
are in for 3 to 6 inches of snow, maybe more in the
mountains, a little less extreme southeast. 

 Our little Alberta Clipper storm coming into Vermont today looks like it might over-perform.

The National Weather Service is calling for a general three to six inch snowfall across the Green Mountain State and surrounding areas. 

Winter weather advisories are up for all of Vermont except the western parts of Addison and Rutland counties, where they might be just under the amount of snow needed to trigger the advisory. 

A tiny section of the immediate lower Connecticut Valley south of Springfield is also exempt from the advisory. 

It doesn't really matter, as it's going to snow everywhere in Vermont. Most of the snow will come down in a big thump late this afternoon and evening. 

THE DETAILS:

We're starting the day off cold once again, but not nearly as bad as it was 24 hours earlier. The coldest I could find in Vermont Monday morning was 29 below at East Haven. St. Johnsbury takes the prize for most dramatic warmup. The temperature there went from 20 below to 24 above within about 10 hours. That's a rise of 44 degrees, which is really impressive. 

Temperatures this morning were mostly back down in the single numbers above zero at dawn. An exception is Plattsburgh, New York that got to at least 4 below. Burlington was right at 0,  which was a bit chillier than many places around the region. 

An interesting thing happens when Lake Champlain is frozen or mostly so. Places like Burlington and Plattsburgh, New York stop being the warm spots in the region because we've lost the influence of the relatively warm water. It's now sealed under ice. 

Until the ice melts, the only way the Champlain Valley would be warmer than elsewhere only if there's south winds. The south winds funnel easily northward between the Adirondacks and Greens, ,so balmier air brought by the south winds reaches the valley first. 

The lake isn't going to help. In fact, as we head into late winter and spring, wind coming off the frozen lake, or very winter-chilled lake water once the ice breaks up, will make places along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain often much chillier than places further away. 

Basically, Lake Champlain has turned into a gigantic beer cooler. 

Anyway, back to today. 

THE STORM 

It's going to warm up nicely - at least by our standards - everywhere this afternoon as the snow approaches. We should get well into the 20s.  Any sun you see this morning will quickly fade behind clouds as our Alberta Clipper rapidly approaches. 

The best guess is the snow coming in from the west will reach Champlain by roughly 3 or 4 p.m. today and quickly cross the rest of the state in the hour or two after that. 

Once it arrives, the snow will go from flurries to heavy snow very, very quickly. Most of the storm's snow will come in the initial three to four hours of this episode. This evening's dump will probably go at a rate of an inch per hour,  which is pretty fast. 

That means, unfortunately, on your drive home from work or school late this afternoon and this evening, you're going to run into rapidly deteriorating road conditions, bad visibility and the maximum amount of idiots surrounding you since the 4-7 p.m. time frame will be the busiest on the roads.

Unfortunately, I have an important appointment in Burlington today at 3 p.m., which means I'm going to spend my entire evening parked on a snarled Interstate 89.  I'll wave to you if you're one of the hundreds or more people stuck with me. 

The snow will tend to lighten up later tonight, leaving behind a general three to five inches of new snow. If it's still snowing at dawn, it'll barely be flurries in many areas. 

But for some of us, anyway, that won't be the end of it.  The Alberta Clipper will tend to fade out somewhere near or over northern Vermont late tonight, to be replaced by a new storm that will crank up east of Maine.

That offshore storm will strengthen, creating winds from the east that will blow into Quebec, then southward over Vermont. The moist air will wring out additional snow, especially over much of western Vermont and the Green Mountains. Those areas can expect another one, two, maybe even three inches of additional snow over those areas.

As mentioned, the total snowfall from today through Wednesday evening, as mentioned, looks like it'll amount to three to six inches for most of us. 

The western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains will do the best in this episode with several ski resorts likely seeing eight, nine or even ten inches of total accumulation. The western slopes of New York's Adirondacks and the White Mountains over in New Hampshire should be just as deep in the snow by later tomorrow. 

This has been the best winter for skiing and riding in Vermont I've seen in years. We've never gotten any extreme snowstorms, but the conditions have been great most of the time really since mid-November. 

This will be a pretty fluffy snow, so I'm not worried about the weight of snow on trees and power lines. And we won't be trying to clear wet cement from our driveways tomorrow. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

Finally! I'll be quiet and warmer for a few days at least. By "warmer" I don't exactly mean beach weather. Wednesday through Saturday should bring highs mostly in the mid and upper 20s and lows in the single numbers to low teens.

We have a shot at going above freezing on Sunday. If that happens, it would be the first time since January 22 we've cracked 32 degrees.

There also might be some sort of coastal storm toward Sunday and Monday. The computer models are still all over the place with this thing. Given the limited and conflicting information we have now, that storm could bring us in Vermont a snowfall, an ugly mix or absolutely nothing at all. As always, stay tuned! 

We Just Had Vermont's Coldest Night Of The Winter. Uphill From Here? Snow Looms, Too

The "Haze Cam" looking toward Juniper Island in 
Lake Champlain, showed wall to wall ice cover 
this morning. I'm guessing the whole lake
is now frozen after this morning's subzero cold

Congratulations, Vermonters!

Most of us, anyway, just endured the coldest morning in the winter of 2025-26. Unlike other parts of eastern U.S. we didn't break any record lows. 

And, scattered across the state, there were a few exceptions to the "coldest morning" designation. But you get the picture. 

As expected, areas that were able to stay clear with light winds cooled off the most. Burlington got to at least 12 below, making this the coldest morning since February 5, 2023. The winter of '23 was actually exceptionally warm, except for two brutal days early in February that year.

Lake Champlain was this close to freezing over completely yesterday.  There were just a few holes in the ice left just offshore of Port Kent, New York,  I guessing the lake is entirely frozen today. It sure looked like it is from the Haze Cams at the University of Vermont that are pointed at the lake. If the lake is 100 percent frozen, it's  the first time since March, 2019 that's happened.

Most places across Vermont were in the teens below zero this morning. Newport was at 19 below. Morrisville and St. Johnsbury got to at least 18 below. I saw a reports of 16 below out of Bennington and Rutland.

Across the pond in New York, perennial ice box Saranac Lake was at 26 below. Watertown, New York was 27 below, which is positively balmy compared to the minus 35 they endured there Sunday morning. 

There were some weird exceptions to the cold. Montpelier had a breeze until 7 a.m. So far, their low is an unremarkable 5 below. 

Springfield, snug in the Connecticut River valley, is sometimes colder than many other places in Vermont. But they were at 2 above zero with a light north breeze at 6 a.m.. But things can change rapidly in frigid mornings like this. Springfield's winds went calm, and they had fallen 7 degrees to minus 5 by 7 a.m. 

The warmest place in Vermont was probably the summit of Mount Mansfield, They were at 0 degrees at 6 a.m. The second morning of a cold snap, when high pressure is centered nearby, often creates an inversion. We've got that going this morning. A layer a few thousand feet over our valleys is relatively warm compared to what we've been dealing with in the valleys. 

Except for those "warm" spots this morning, I think there's a decent chance that this morning will turn out to be Vermont's coldest until next winter. No promises, though. 

TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY

A new snowfall map with two to six inches of new snow
expected for most of us between Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. Heaviest snow Tuesday evening. 

That inversion will at least partly mix out today. With the sunshine, that'll allow us to get into the teens above zero. A 30 degree increase in temperature from dawn to mid-afternoon is pretty impressive, even if it won't exactly seem toasty warm once we get past noon.  

Tonight, temperatures should initially crash with clear skies and light winds. But changes are afoot. Overnight lows in the single digits to low teens below zero should hit by midnight, and then it will slowly start to get warmer. 

After that, we have some snow to talk about. We haven't had any absolutely tremendous historic winter storms this winter, at least not here in Vermont. (Other places certainly have).

But the timing of most of our mid-sized storms seems to be bad, and that looks like it might be the case on Tuesday. We've got an Alberta clipper coming at us from south-central Canada.

As it approaches, it will have a strong warm front attached to it. That warm front, which will never actually make it into or through Vermont, probably will still bring us a period of heavy snow just in time for Tuesday's evening commute. There's still time for the forecast to change a little, but that's the way it looks now.

The heavy snow will only last two or three hours in any given location, but for many of us, it will dump a quick two or three inches of snow in that timeframe. Slick roads and poor visibility could make the drive home on Tuesday unpleasant to say the least. 

After that initial big burst, some snow will linger overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday.  Again, unless something changes, it looks like we can expect 2.5 to 5 inches of snow. Some places in the central and northern Green Mountains might end up with more than six inches. 

The second half of the week will settle into uneventful weather with average temperatures for this time of year. We're seeing signs temperatures could go a little above freezing over the weekend, more likely Sunday than Saturday. 

If it does get above freezing over the weekend, it will end the longest continuous streak of sub-32 degree air since the January 26 to February 21, 2015, when we had 27 consecutive subfreezing days.  Out of the last 141 years of record, subfreezing streaks lasting as long as the one we're in now have only happened 20 times, according to the National Weather Service.

So, yeah, this is an odd winter.

 

Hundreds Of Trucks And Cars Stuck On Ice-Locked Mississippi Interstate Amid Widespread Southern Ice Storm Power Outages

Missouri Department of Transportation traffic cam image
from this afternoon shows I-269 in the northern part of
the state still covered in ice and truck traffic
still backed up of miles. This nearly four days
after the freezing rain stopped falling. 

The Great Ice Storm  of 2026 in the southern United States continues to wreak havoc, days after the icy rains and snow ended. 

There's been dozens of deaths associated by the storm. By one count, 111 people have perished from either direct or indirect effects of the storm and cold wave. causes directly and directly connected to the storm and cold weather.  

The trouble now is it so far not warmed up after freezing rain stopped falling. Though some of the ice has melted from all those sagging trees, many road and highways contain thick, stubborn layers of ice. 

This includes major routes like Interstate 22 and Interstate 55, along with other main roads across northern Mississippi.

The freezing rain might have ended by this past Sunday night. But on Wednesday, the highways in northern Mississippi and parts of Tennessee and Louisiana were still thick sheets of ice. Sunshine that tried to thaw the ice and truck tires left ruts and holes in the highway ice.  

Then it froze again at night, making things even worse than before. For some reason, the Mississippi Department of Transportation did not close the highways until Wednesday afternoon. By then, it was too late. Tractor trailers and some cars were backed up for miles. People were stranded out there for as much as 24 hours. Sometimes more. All in temperatures far below freezing at night. 

 "I've been here since yesterday (Tuesday) about 4:30 p.m.  I haven't moved an inch," truck driver Lee Roy Thomas told ABC24 in Memphis Wednesday afternoon. 

A man from Wisconsin who was stranded on Interstate 22 in Mississippi told WREG: "I tried calling the Mississippi State Patrol all they would do is, there would be a bushy signal and they would hang up after four rings. I must have made half a dozen attempts at that. We were always waiting for someone to come by and check on us but nobody came by. Nobody checked on us."

One truck driver said that when trucks begin to inch forward, they slide sideways because it is so slippery. 

Drone video showed mile after mile of tractor trailer trucks just sitting there, not moving on Wednesday along Interstate 55.

I'm wondering why they didn't shut down these jammed up Interstate highways last weekend and kept them closed until the ice melted, or it could be bulldozed from the roads.  That would have caused huge disruptions, but probably not something as severe as those hundreds of people stuck out there in their vehicles. 

On Wednesday, Mississippi Department of Transportation finally did close down parts of Interstate 55 and Interstate 22 so ice could be cleared from the roads. Hopefully enough so that vehicles could get through reasonably enough.

MDOT also sent in plows Wednesday afternoon, but warned that any ice the sun melted during the day would freeze again at night. The National Guard and more MDOT trucks have been brought in to help clear the highways. However, as the sun set Wednesday, the two major interstates remained at a near-standstill. 

A special weather statement from the National Weather Service office in Memphis this morning urging no travel yet. The statement said main highways remain quite dangerous and most secondary roads across much of Mississippi and Tennessee are pretty much impassable still.

Some thawing was going on in northern Mississippi today as temperatures rise into the mid-40s, but that will not be enough to melt all the ice. An intense new cold snap will drop temperatures back below freezing tonight, and no real thawing is expected until at least Monday. 

Meanwhile, troubles kept popping up in hard-hit Tennessee as well.  

Ten people have died in Tennessee so far as a result of the storm. Residents are worried about more deaths as power remains out in many areas. Those fears are heightened by the prospect of a new cold snap coming in. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the single digits Saturday night after highs only near 20 degrees. 

As of this afternoon, more than 300,000 homes and businesses in the South remain without power. That includes nearly 100,000 customers each in Tennessee and Mississippi and more than 50,000 in Louisiana. 

In Nashville, elderly and disabled residents in a 12 story apartment building have had no heat or elevators for days and are running out of food. Fire crews evacuated some of the residents from the building on Wednesday. 

Videos:

News report on the highway situation in Mississippi from ABC2  in Memphis. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Drone video shows mile and mile after mile of tractor trailer trucks just sitting on the ice along Interstate 55 in northern Mississippi. Again, click on this link, or click on the link below if it is visible.

 

 

Death Toll Rising From Winter Storm; Stubborn Deep Cold Raising The Stakes

The city of Oxford, Mississippi continues to post
photos of the ice storm destruction. Another example.

The death toll from the massive winter storm has risen to at least 34 in 14 states as the severe lingering effects of the snow and ice barrage continues to threaten more lives. 

As of mid-morning today, more than a half million homes and businesses remained without power, mainly in Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee. This, as temperatures reached record cold levels in the region this morning. 

In devastated northern Mississippi, temperatures are forecast to rise into the still-colder than average low 40s. At least that will melt some of the us. But a new, intense cold snap is set to hit by the end of the week, sending overnight temperatures back down into the single digits. 

Ice storm damage in Mississippi was even worse than in a historic 1994 storm. In 1994, it took 23 days for power to be fully restored. Officials said modernization could somewhat shorten the repair timeline this time, but probably not by all that much. 

In Tennessee, Nashville residents were told some parts of the city could remain without power for a week. Outlying areas will probably wait even longer. 

While the electricity is off in and around Nashville, the frigid weather continues, which is bad news for the thousands of people shivering without heat. High temperatures in Nashville should only reach the 20s and 30s through next Monday. This is a city where afternoon temperatures are normally around 50 degrees this time of year. 

Later on, the question of where to put the debris from millions of shattered trees in hundreds of communities in the South.  Right now, mountains of tree debris lines roads and streets. In some of the hardest hit cities, it looked like nearly every tree sustained at least a little damage. A lot of those trees are entirely destroyed. 

Roads in northern Mississippi are still coated in
thick layers of ice and snow even
though the storm ended late Sunday. 
They're not equipped to remove snow and
the thaws that usually follow winter storms
in the region have failed to arrive.

North of the ice zone, people are still clearing snow from a massive area from New Mexico to Maine and Canada. 

On Monday. 56 percent of the Lower 48 of the United States was covered in snow. At least a foot of snow fell in 18 states, including here in Vermont. Toronto, Canada endured its largest single day snowfall with about 22 inches of new snow. 

Travel problems continue to reverberate even after the storm has passed. 

American Airlines said this was their most disruptive storm in the company's 100-year history. American canceled 9,000 flights in the storm.  More cancelations and delays are possible over the next couple of days. 

Flight Aware showed about 2,300 flight canceled today, even after the storm has passed. Lingering ice and snow on the ground, and the disarray caused by the tens of thousands of cancellations during the actual storm, are helping to cause the problem.

In much of the South, highways are today still covered by thick layers of snow and ice. They don't have the equipment down there to remove all that ice. Usually, southerners wait for it to melt. Normally the melt doesn't' take long. This time, it is. 

The weird, extended Arctic weather is affecting most places east of the Rockies. 

Usually - at least in recent years and decades -  a severe winter cold wave lasts only a few days, and then it's largely over.   

This time, the frigid air is staying put. 

In Minneapolis, all but one of the past 11 days have gotten below zero. The next above zero daily low temperature is not expected until this coming Sunday.   

The cold weather pattern is forecast to last well into February. New York City's longest streak of consecutive below freezing days is 16, set in 1961. Given the forecasts, that record could be broken. 

Even Florida is enduring the chill. They've already had a couple hard freezes this winter and another is due tonight. Another, strong cold wave is forecast later this week. Temperatures could get down into the low and mid 20s around Orland and mid-30s as far south as Miami. 

Even worse, a nor'easter is expected to form off the East Coast. It's still unclear whether the storm will come close enough to shore to cause a blizzard. But even if the storm misses, it's almost certain to reinforce the cold air over the eastern United States.  

 

Deadly U.S. Winter Storm Winding Down; Cleanup To Take Weeks In Some Areas

Road blocked by fallen trees in Nashville.
From Meteorologist Tyler Barker, via Facebook

The enormous, deadly winter storm that has been thrashing the United States since Friday is finally on its way out,  swiping New England today with lingering snows before heading out to sea. 

At least 16 people have died so far, and that doesn't include seven deaths in Bangor, Maine from a plane crash. The incident happened in snowy weather, but investigators haven't yet announced whether this was due to the weather. 

I'm afraid that toll will go up as ice storm victims who will be without power for days or weeks endure frigid temperatures.

People will come down with hypothermia in frigid homes or apartments, succumb to fires or fumes due to improperly installed generators or space heaters, or they will be injured or even killed in accidents while clearing fallen trees and branches. 

This will surely be an incredibly expensive storm, too. I expect total damage will make this the first weather disaster of 2026 to cause more than $1 billion in losses.

As of noon today, at least 776,000 homes and businesses were still without power in the Southeast. Most of the outages were in Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, which were hardest hit by the ice storm. 

My social media feed this morning was full of images and videos of iced-over trees and branches snapping with a sound of a gunshot, the crashing to the ground in cacophony of shattering ice and wood crunching into the ground. 

Those expected temperatures in the ice storm zone are incredibly low. Extreme cold warnings extend from southern Texas to Pennsylvania. 

Some of the hardest hit towns are dealing with this incredible chill. One of the hardest hit cities, Oxford, Mississippi, is expecting a high today in the low 20s with a low tonight in the upper single numbers. Normal highs and lows this time of year in Oxford are in the low 50s and low 30s. 

Nashville was also hard hit. It's been in the teens there since 5 p.m. yesterday and won't get above that level until tomorrow. The expected low tonight in Nashville is 0 degrees. The city won't get any warmer than the low 30s through the week. 

The cold not only endangers people with the threat of hypothermia and frostbite, it also means a lot of the ice won't melt anytime soon. That means the risk of more collapsing trees and power lines, and even building damage. 

Oxford, Mississippi after the ice storm. 

Some houses and businesses have been hit by falling trees A few have succumbed to the weight of the ice.  

Several buildings and other structures have collapsed under the weight of ice along the Texas-Oklahoma border.  

A large horse barn in Hernando, Mississippi collapsed, but all the horses inside somehow managed to survive. At least one building fell down in Arkansas. 

One news crew almost got hit by a falling tree while talking about the storm with a family in Tennessee.

As in most disasters, the change in everyone's surroundings can feel surreal and shocking

In Mississippi, a WREG reporter in Oxford, Mississippi  said the air smells like pine from all the broken trees, and he has to keep his head on a swivel because of all the trees still falling, or at least threatening to. 

"It's complete devastation. It looks like a tornado went down every street. There is no safe means of travel on the roads right now," Oxford Mississippi Mayor Robyn Tannehill said. 

Speaking of tornadoes, a likely twister touched down in Geneva, in southeast Alabama, causing damage. There were also other reports of wind damage from strong thunderstorms in that part of Alabama and northwest Florida. 

Well to the north, the news was heavy snow. At least 16 states, including here in Vermont saw snow accumulations reach a foot or more. Reports of up to 22 inches of new snow came from central and eastern Massachusetts, the lower Hudson Valley and Catskills in New York, and at a couple spots in Pennsylvania

Boston ended a 1,430 day period in which they never saw a snowstorm of greater than six inches. That's their second longest snow drought in history, noted Jonathan Petralma in a YouTube video

The snowy weather extended into Canada. Toronto set a single-day record for snowfall with 23 inches.  The city has seen 34.7 inches of snow so far in January,  making this Toronto's snowiest month on record. 

Travel is still messed up today, as you might guess. More than 5,400 flights were canceled today, according to Flight Aware. This brings the total number of canceled flights to nearly 24,000 since the storm began Friday. That's the most since the Covid pandemic. 

A new nor'easter next Sunday or Monday might affect parts of the East Coast around next Sunday or Monday but it's too soon to tell if it will hit and where. Colder than normal weather is likely to continue in much of the northern and eastern United States at least into mid-February.  

Saturday Evening Update: Damage In South Ramping Up In Big Winter Storm. Little Change In Vermont Snow Dump Outlook

Tree damage from freezing rain already starting to show
up in Rolling Fork, Mississippi in this video screen
grab from Meteorologist Jock Williams, via Facebook

Our big winter storm continues to plow on, with varying forms of precipitation falling as of late this afternoon from New Mexico to North Carolina. 

At least 22 states are now under states of emergency due to the storm. About 55 percent of the nation's population, or 190 million people are under weather alerts related to this mess. These warnings and advisories cover 37 states, including here in Vermont. 

Power outages continued to increase through the day, and it will get a lot worse tonight and tomorrow. As of 5 p.m. eastern time, more than 56,000 homes and businesses were without power in Texas. The outages in Louisiana were nearing 48,000

Flight Aware was showing almost 4,300 flights canceled today, and at least 9,200 canceled tomorrow. for a total of about 15,000.

 The previous worst day in the past year for canceled flights was on November 9, when 1,900 flights were scrubbed due to the U.S. government shutdown, CNN reported.

Across the winter storm area, where snow, sleet and freezing rain was falling, cities looked like ghost towns.

For instance, video from Live Storms Media showed snow and ice-covered highways aroundMemphis almost free of traffic. Most of the few vehicles on Memphis area highways were tractor trailers hauling goods to, gawd knows where.

This storm will no doubt disrupt shipping. At the very least, don't be surprised if your Amazon package is late. 

Freezing rain continues to be the biggest danger with this storm, though the heavy snow is no slouch in this either. Parts of the storm are turning out to be pretty electric, so some places in the South are dealing with thunder and lightning combined with the freezing rain and sleet. 

That state of affairs should continue into the night at least. 

An ice storm is really bad news wherever it might hit. The fact that the South is getting the bulk of the freezing rain is even worse. I've mentioned before the region is heavily forested. Because the South has infrequent winter storms, they don't cut tree limbs away from power lines as utilities in the northern United States do.  

Which means it's more likely that falling trees or branches would hit power lines in the South instead of falling harmlessly away from the wires. 

In many areas in the ice zone, the freezing rain is falling lightly. Or at least tapers off to a lighter rain at times. That's actually bad news. As Matthew Cappucci explains in the Washington Post, when a raindrop freezes, it released a teeny amount of latent heat. If it's really pouring that latent heat can add up, and could bring temperatures above freezing. Or at least bring nearby raindrops above freezing. 

A freezing sprinkle doesn't release much heat. So it adds up on trees and power lines, causing chaos. 

A new storm hazard has appeared. It looks like the systems warm front will get into the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia. These areas will turn briefly warm and humid overnight and part of tomorrow. That is until the storm's cold front approaches. 

These areas could see severe thunderstorms and maybe even a few tornadoes before temperatures fall sharply later tomorrow. Interestingly, the area under the tornado threat is the same are that had some very rare for them snow last Sunday

The snow and some sleet will send up slowing  travel from New Mexico to New Brunswick and beyond. In the United States, everybody in a wide band between about Roswell, New Mexico to Eastport, Maine will end up with at least six inches of snow. Many spots in this vast zone of snow will end up shoveling more than a foot of snow. In some places, sleet mixed in will make the chore especially onerous. 

As the storm closed in, panic buying continued, as people stripped grocery shelves of water, milk, bread, eggs and whatever else  people thought they needed.

"I know people want to be ready, but calm down, you don't need to buy all the toilet paper in Virginia," Kim Lee told WWBT "Some of the things I wanted to make sure I have, I do not have." 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Well, I guess we can say today was sunny for a change. It's been such a gloomy winter that any sunshine is a blessing. 

No panic buying in Vermont, apparently. The bread aisle
in a Colchester supermarket looks well stocked today. 

Even if it's near or below zero. You know it's cold when most of the cars on the highways have little piggy tails of steam coming out of their tail pipes. 

Not many people were out today, at least as far as I saw when I was out doing errands. The only knots of activity were at grocery stores. But unlike the panic buying elsewhere, the store shelves I saw seemed well stocked.  

It did manage to get above zero in Burlington this afternoon, keeping a usually long streak going. The last time Burlington had a high temperature of just 0 degrees was on January 15, 2022. The last time we had a subzero high temperature was January 6, 2018. 

Subzero high temperatures used to be quite a bit more frequent than they are now. 

As late afternoon arrived, I could see high, thin clouds on the southern horizon. That's the first sign of our storm. 

The temperature will drop like a rock for the first half of tonight as skies remain mostly clear for awhile.  It'll actually be a bit colder than earlier forecasts hinted at. The "warmer" valleys will probably make its the upper single numbers below zero. Most of Vermont will be in the teens below zero, and the Northeast Kingdom could get as low as 25 below. 

The increasing clouds late tonight will keep temperatures from really bottoming out. Readings should level off after midnight, and maybe even rise a bit toward morning. 

THE STORM

The forecast really hasn't changed much since this morning. Within 24 hours or so before a storm, the computer models can start looking at picky details.

It's looking like the initial thump of snow tomorrow evening will come down quite hard, especially in southern Vermont.  Late at night, the snow could lighten up somewhat. 

Then, during the day Monday, the storm might form a little trough or extension northwestward into Vermont. I say 'might" because meteorologists aren't entirely sure yet. But it's likely, and that would make snowfall heavier for a few to several hours near wherever it might set up.  Preliminary guesses have it setting up somewhere in central Vermont. 

This evening's updated snowfall prediction map for
Vermont and surround areas is little changed from this
morning. Source: NWS/South Burlington

Not sure, so we'll keep an eye on that. 

The forecast for total snowfall hasn't changed much. The National Weather Service is still going with 8 to 16 inches by Monday night, with locally higher amounts maybe in the southern Green Mountains. Or where and if that trough sets up for several hours somewhere in Vermont. 

The snow will still probably start tomorrow afternoon. So if you have some supplies to nab, do it in the morning. The roads will be bad from Sunday afternoon on through Monday.

 Sure, it's going to be a fluffy snow, but visibility will be poor, and some of that snow will compact into ice on the roads. 

A saving grace is it won't be all that windy during the storm, so blowing snow won't make the visibility even worse. The snow should finally peter out Monday evening. 

The upcoming week also continues to look quite chilly, but not nearly as bad as today. Still, every night in the coming week starting Monday night around the Northeast Kingdom will probably go below zero.

After this storm blows through, it still looks like very little if any snow will fall Tuesday through at least next Saturday. Or even later than that. 

 

Extreme, Dangerous Storm Now Underway In U.S.. Here In Vermont, Big Powder Dump Due

What a mess. 

Just the beginning. Freezing rain beginning to weigh
down this tree in central Texas early today. By
this evening, we should start to see widespread
tree damage and power outages due to the
ice storm in the south. At least half the people
in the U.S. are now under a winter storm warning 

As expected, rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow is falling across a huge area of the central and southern U.S. and the problems have only just begun.

As usual, I'll have Vermont specifics below, but first. the national update. Spoiler: We're getting a big storm here in the Green Mountain State, but we're a luckier than a lot of people. 

At least half of the nation's 343 million or so people will be affected by this storm. I'm not sure, but I think the area of the United States under a winter storm warning is the largest I've seen since 2011.

And for some people this will be the worst storm in at least that long. 

\The first power outages from freezing rain, snow and wind were already starting to crop up early this morning. As of 9 a.m. eastern time, nearly 36,000 people had no power in Texas. More than 4,700 people in Arkansas and 3,000 people Oklahoma were in the dark.

The number of outages across southern and central parts of the U.S. will no doubt rise exponentially today. 

Traveling is a nightmare, or soon will be in huge swaths of the nation. Airlines are scrambling. As of 7:30 a.m. today, Flight Aware tells us there were 3,568 canceled flights today in the U.S. It's worse tomorrow, with more than 6,100 flights canceled. These numbers will probably rise further.

A wide stripe of heavy snow will end up extending 1,500 miles or more, from Oklahoma to New England and on into southeast Canada.

To make matters worse, some states, most notably Michigan and Vermont, are facing road salt shortages as the storm approaches.  

If there's a bright side, it's this storm won't be as bad as the Texas deep freeze, winter storm and electrical grid  collapse in 2021 that killed nearly 250 people. And despite some sensational social media posts I've seen, it won't be as bad as the Storm of the Century in 1993. 

Still, it's bad enough. I unfortunately predict it will cause at least a few tragic deaths and perhaps cause $1 billion or more in damage before it's over. 

VERMONT COLD, STORM

Just as planned, it's annoying cold out there today. We've started the day with temperatures in the single number and teens below zero, and wind chills in the minus 20s. Henry the Weather Dog was extremely quick and efficient with his first morning trip outdoors this morning. The poor little guy ran full steam to the door when he was ready to come in. I had the same mindset. 

High temperatures, if you can call them that, should get up to near or a little below zero for most of us. The banana belt in the lower Connecticut Valley might get all the way up to five or eight above. At least the sun will be out, so, um, yay?

Increasing clouds from the approaching storm will prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out tonight. But it will be below zero for sure. The Northeast Kingdom, which is normally colder anyway, will be the last to see the clouds. That means it could flirt with 20 below overnight in some spots up thee. 

Nine extreme cold shelters are open throughout the state this weekend to homeless people who would otherwise be exposed to the dangerous wind chill outdoors. 

You're going to want to dress for today's weather, obviously. The elderly and children are at most risk from getting in trouble with the frigid weather, so really keep an eye on them. 

The Storm

Forecast snow amounts for the upcoming storm have
increased, especially in northern Vermont. Almost
everybody should see at least 10 inches of snow
A few places in southern Vermont could get
close to 20 inches. Good news is this will
be powdery snow with no ice mixed in. 

Our main story, obviously is the big winter storm and how it will affect Vermont. 

The answer is pretty greatly. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has boosted expected snow totals since their forecasts yesterday. Especially in northern Vermont.

Statewide, total accumulation from this storm are now expected to range from eight to 17 inches.  Some spots in central and southern Green Mountains could close in on 20 inches. 

If the current forecasts hold, places north of Route 2 would get a little less than a foot of snow. Central Vermont, including Burlington, Montpelier and Rutland would get about a foot or a little more than that. Places like Bennington, Brattleboro and Springfield would see maybe 15 inches. 

To nobody's surprise, the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning in northern Vermont. And the winter storm warning in the rest of the state is still in effect.

The snow should start in the early Sunday afternoon south of Route 4, mid-afternoon in central Vermont, and late afternoon north of Route 2.

The snow will need to overcome dry air before it reaches the ground. You'll be able to see that process tomorrow. Watch the mountains. The tops of them will look blurry at first as it starts to snow at the summits. But mid slopes and valleys will be clear as the snow evaporates on the way down in the dry air.

Gradually, the blur on top of the mountains will get lower in elevation as the air moistens. Finally, it[ll start snowing in the valleys. 

The overall forecast for the path of the storm hasn't changed since last night. The changes to the forecast in northern Vermont reflect more confidence that the good moisture from the storm will get that far north. Heck, even Montreal is expecting six inches of snow out of this. 

Usually this type of storm has bands of heavier snowfall that increase the accumulation in a few spots. That'll probably happen this time. But it's always almost impossible to know where these bands will set up ahead of time. 

The Storm's Effects

We in Vermont are a lot luckier than most other places in the path of this storm. Firstly, ski resorts, cross country centers, back country skiers and other snow lovers in Vermont are not exactly upset by this weather forecast.  It might as well be tourism dollars floating down from the sky during this storm. 

Also, unlike so much of the U.S. in this storm, we will not get any sleet or freezing rain. 

This will also be a light and fluffy snow. Ten inches of snow in an average snowstorm would yield about an inch of water.  With this storm, the snow will be so fluffy that you'd need at least 20 inches of snow to get an inch of water. 

If this storm were rain, we'd only get a half to three quarters of an inch of precipitation. 

All this means is we won't have any problems with trees falling and power lines snapping.  It'll be easier to shovel than those wet "heart attack" snows we've gotten in many snowstorms in recent years. 

There's a caveat to that, of course. This is still going to be an oddly cold storm, with temperatures mostly staying in the single numbers and teens. Shoveling snow in very cold air can increase the risk of heart attacks. 

The powdery snow will make traveling tough, especially on highways like Interstates 89 and 91. A passing semi will create a thick cloud of snow so that you won't be able to see anything around you. 

Even regular cars stir up enough snow to blank out your view. Also, this type of snow is deceptive. It will look like you're on dry pavement because the snow has blown off the road. But car tires will have compacted a little bit of that snow into black ice. That "dry pavement" could be a skating rink. 

The heaviest snow will come down Sunday night and early Monday. The drive to work Monday morning will be, well, interesting, I guess with all that snow. Try to work from home if you can. I'm guessing quite a few schools will be closed. 

The snow will turn lighter during the day Monday but probably continue at least until evening in most areas. 

You know how, in our recent warm winters we'd finally get a big snowstorm, but a thaw would arrive within a couple days to melt a lot of it away? That's not happening this time. 

The weather pattern doesn't seem to favor a lot more additional snow after this storm goes by. But the snow we'll  have on the ground is absolutely staying put for quite awhile. At this point, I see no signs of a thaw at least through the second week in February.

Huge U.S. Winter Storm Has Begun, And Will Worsen. Here In Vermont, Cold, With Maybe Foot Of Snow

All that pink on the National Weather Service web page
is winer storm warnings. It's one of the largest winter
storm warning areas I've ever seen. The purple in
parts of the south is ice storm warnings. 

The big national. winter storm is now underway, and it will continue to worsen as we go through tonight, tomorrow and Sunday. 

In some places, the storm could be the worst in years, or even decades.

First, we'll take a look at a stormy nation, and down below, you'll see our Vermont-specific update. 

DEVELOPING STORM

As of Friday afternoon, precipitation was blossoming over New Mexico and Texas and it was starting to head north and east. 

The mid-afternoon precipitation was mostly rain in Texas, but that was about to change. Subfreezing air had reached the border between Oklahoma and Texas north of Dallas. It was already in the teens in the Texas Panhandle. 

Sleet and freezing rain had already begun in areas around Lubbock, Texas.

As the precipitation keeps moving north and east and expanding, the cold air is pushing into this growing mass of rain. The die is cast. The massive winters storm has begun. It will continue to harass millions upon millions of Americans between now and Monday. 

Grocery store shelves are now empty or close to it from Texas to New England, as people heed warnings to stock up ahead of the storm. Fox Weather posted on X views of an Oxford, Mississippi grocery store that practically had nothing left. 

Don't expect to travel anywhere this weekend. As of 3;45 p.m. eastern time, more than 2,415 flights in the United States had been cancelled, and that number was rising rapidly, according to FlightAware.  Nearly 1,450 Sunday flights had already been canceled by this afternoon. 

ICE STORM

The scariest part or this storm is the freezing rain. There's vast amounts of it in the forecast and this icy precipitation will freeze an enormous area.

As of Friday afternoon, ice storm warnings covered parts  of eastern Texas; northern and central Louisiana; roughly the northwestern half of Mississippi; southwest and eastern Tennessee; northeastern Georgia, the western half of South Carolina and western and southern North Carolina. 

Most of these areas can expect at least a half inch of ice accumulation. A half inch is where trees, branches and power lines really start to break. Many places under the ice storm warning can expect three quarters of an inch or more. 

The ice storm warning in parts of South Carolina is the first one they've had in two decades. 

As meteorologist Matthew Cappucci noted on X, meteorologists are already calling for up to 1.25 inches of ice accumulation in northwest Mississippi, which is an incredibly rare forecast. He said tree damage would be equivalent to Category 1 or 2 strength hurricane.

Besides the power outages, many roads will be blocked by both fallen trees and ice. 

The power outages are going to be stupendous. All those people in heatless homes for days in subfreezing temperatures worry me.  Especially people who might need emergency medical help.

Areas north of the ice storm warnings are not off the hook. A wide band north of the ice storm warnings will have a horrible mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Forecasts for mixed precipitation have been trending north, especially along the East Coast.  

Sleet could mix in as far north as New York City. Even with the sleet, the New York metro area could see 12 to 18 inches of snow. 

The Washington Post put together this snow
accumulation map. Click on the image to make
it bigger and easier to see. 

Further north, along a broad path rom Oklahoma to New England, it'll entirely snow or almost al snow, with accumulations in many spots closing in on a foot. In some places more than that.  

It's indisputably horrifically frigid in the Upper Midwest with widespread temperatures in the 20s below. But that's not historically cold. Record lows are generally not being set in that region.

However, the storm will yank that cold air southward behind it, so record lows are expected in the southern Plains and perhaps some of the Gulf Coast States toward Monday and Tuesday. 

For instance, as the Washington Post tells us the forecast low in Dallas Monday is 7, and the record low that day is 12 above. Tulsa, Oklahoma is expecting a low of 6 below, which would obliterate the previous record low of 7 above in 1963

Brownsville, on the southern tip of Texas could get to 31 degree Monday, which would edge out the previous record low of 32 degrees.

As always, Donald Trump added his "wisdom" to this winter event. He posted this on social media: "Record Cold Wave expected to hit 40 States. Rarely seen anything like it before. Could the Environmental Insurrectionists please explain - WHATEVER HAPPENED TO GLOBAL WARMING???"

I'm not sure how many people familiar with climate science are "insurrectionists" but the explanation for this huge storm is called "winter."

Happens every year. Despite climate change, winter still happens, and you can still get extreme weather. Things like this just doesn't happen as often as it used to. That's partly why everybody is freaked out. 

There's record warmth currently in Greenland, Indonesia, northeast Africa and Madagascar. I guess we'll ignore those places. Moving on....

VERMONT EFFECTS

There's' some shifts in Vermont forecast since this morning, which I'm by no means surprised by.  

First of all, the main cold front introducing the Arctic air was just passing through Vermont as of late this afternoon.   It was getting gradually, noticeably colder this afternoon. This is not a well-defined cold front at all. The slide toward below zero weather is now accelerating as darkness falls.   

Wind chills were already in the single numbers and teens below zero as of 5 p.m. 

The National Weather Service's first crack at 
prediction snow amounts Sunday and Monday. 
This could change, but for now they have near
5 inch close to the Canadian border and a foot
near the Massachusetts border. 

We haven't had much in the way of snow squalls yet today, which is a slight surprise. It's still possible we might have a few heavier snow showers here and there this evening. 

It won't be widespread, but keep an eye out for any surprises on the drive home this evening. 

The extreme cold warning is still in effect overnight and the first half of Saturday. 

We're still looking at lows in the upper single numbers to mid teens below zero by Saturday morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph, so those wind chills will be brutal.

Lighter winds arrive during the day tomorrow. But with highs near 0, it won't exactly feel balmy.

The Storm

The big change this afternoon is that the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for all of Vermont roughly south of Route 2. Meteorologists are pretty certain those areas will see a pretty good dump of snow from Sunday afternoon into Monday. For now, the National Weather Service is going with 9 to 16 inches of snow in the warning area.

Northern Vermont is still just under a winter storm watch because it's still a little unclear how much deep moisture will make it to the Canadian border. And if does get there, how long will it last. 

Usually, a winter storm warning is issued if they're expecting six inches or more of snow. A winter weather advisory goes out if it's going to be a little less than that. I'm sure one or the other will be in effect in northern Vermont by tomorrow.

Early guesses call for five or six inches of snow from this in far northern Vermont.

I will note that the National Weather Service forecast is a little conservative compared to some other forecasts I've seen.  Some New England meteorologists are advertising 8 to 12 inches in northern Vermont and 10 to 18 inches south. 

Everybody should note that the snowfall predictions will be adjust up or down here and there between now and Sunday. 

It's looking like the snow will start during the afternoon Sunday and reach its peak overnight Sunday into early Monday morning.  It'll continue probably through at least a good part of Monday. But it should e a pretty light snow by Monday afternoon. 

It's still looking like an oddly cold storm, so it will be more challenging to dress for it if you need to be out in it, or shoveling. If you have to drive through it, pack extra warm clothing, blankets and snacks, since it's going to be so cold.

It also will stay cold all of next week. And probably beyond. It's still super unclear if this storm will be a one-off for us or if something else will come along. The next nor'easter in the pipeline is next Friday, but it looks like it will pass by way too far offshore to give us anything interesting in the Green Mountain State.  

 

Tuesday Morning, White Christmas Creator On Vermont's Doorstep, Few Inches Snow Coming

Snow accumulation forecast for the small storm today
and tonight hasn't changed much. Expect two to five
inches in the valleys, with a little more than 
that up in the mountains. 

As of this Tuesday morning, we're still on the verge of receiving our small storm that would guarantee a white Christmas in Vermont. It'll arrive just in time for the holiday, Bing Crosby style. 

But then again, an unexpected snow in some parts of Vermont Monday already did the job. 

Flurries had been predicted, but instead, a steady light snow fell in northern Vermont Monday afternoon and evening. The mini-storm left behind an inch or so of snow in a several places. 

Burlington had 1.3 inches and here in St. Albans, my yard is now covered by 1.1 inches of powder. That  qualifies for a white Christmas. 

In any event, we're still going to get our pre-Christmas snow today, , and it will come down statewide. 

SNOWY TUESDAY

A surprise 1.1 inches of snow fell on St. Albans,
Vermont Monday, so we already have a white
Christmas set up. Today's snow will add to 
the holiday cheer, and areas of Vermont that
don't have snow on the ground will by
this afternoon and evening. 

The forecast for this storm hasn't changed much since yesterday. It'll be a small storm by Vermont standards, Most valleys will see about two to five inches of snow. 

The mountains will probably see a little more than that. A winter weather advisory remains in effect across Vermont except in the deeper valleys west and southeast. 

As dawn broke, there were a few snow flurries in the air. But the steady snow should start in southwestern Vermont during the mid to late morning. By noon or 1 p.m. or so, it should be snowing along the length of Interstate 89.   

The snow should reach the Northeast Kingdom by mid afternoon. 

It'll never snow really hard, but the steadiest snow will come down between about 3 and 10 p.m. Keep that in mind if you're driving home from work, going to holiday events or getting some last minute shopping done. 

The roads throughout Vermont this afternoon and evening won't be great. Slow it down if you're driving, keep a good distance between you and the car ahead of you, etc. You know, the usual winter safe driving rules. Be patient, as I'm sure there will be a few slide offs and crashes that will back up traffic in a few areas. 

This will be a pretty snow, which should get people in the holiday spirit. In warmer valleys, temperatures might get to near or a degree or so above freezing. That might make some of the snow kind of on the wet side.  

Such temperatures would also suppress snow accumulation. Places right along Lake Champlain and right along the Connecticut River in southeast Vermont might see only two inches of snow or a little under that. 

We won't have much wind, so the snow will stick to the trees nicely. But there won't be enough snow to break branches or power lines, so we're fine there.

CHRISTMAS EVE

The snow will end in most places before dawn Wednesday, but keep going in the mountains. It'll get sort of windy for a time tomorrow morning and that will knock some but not all of the snow off the trees.  The winds won't howl up to near gale force like they have so many times this month. 

Temperatures should stay steady, mostly in the 25 to 30 degree range all day. It'll stay overcast or at least mostly cloudy all day, except in southeast parts of the state, which should get some sun. Up in the mountains, the snow will taper off through the day, leaving behind about four to eight inches on many of the state's ski slopes. 

The clouds will hang tough Christmas Eve night as temperatures fall into the teens. 

CHRISTMAS DAY

Expect no big weather events on the Big Day, but it will get colder and windier toward the end of the day. 

It'll be cloudy again, with a few snow showers around. The northern mountains could pick up a couple of inches of snow, maybe.

The clouds and snow showers will be stirred up by a pretty sharp cold front. Highs near 30 will hit early in the afternoon, then start to drop as the cold Canadian air floods in. By early Friday morning, temperatures will be in the single digits, with a few places below zero.

This will be in contrast to much of the United States,  as record high temperatures are still expected across much of the area between the Rockies and Appalachians on Christmas Day. 

FRIDAY AND BEYOND

We're still in an active pattern, so the weather will change quickly day to day. Also, since it's such a quick pattern, it's hard to forecast exactly what will happen this weekend, but we do have a general idea now. It's a bit subject to change, but here's our first attempt:

Friday looks cold, with highs only in the teens. An Alberta Clipper will zoom into the East on Friday, but current projection take it from Michigan to New Jersey. If that forecast holds, there would be little if any snow in Vermont from Friday's clipper. If it does snow, it's most likely in southern parts of the state.

Another, warmer, somewhat stronger storm might arrive Sunday. This might give us problems with mixed precipitation then, so we'll have to keep an eye on it for you. 

 

Vermont Snow Tapering Off In Lowlands, Keeps Cranking In The Mountains

The snowy view through the windshield on 
Dorset Street in South Burlington this afternoon. 

Our daylong snowfall in Vermont has left us with a good two or four inches, locally more of snow. As of 4 p.m. here in St. Albans, we had 3.4 inches of new snow. 

Roads statewide have been tricky all day with the steady snow. I notice on Interstate 89 by mid-afternoon, visibility occasionally got really poor in areas near pine trees. The wind was picking up and blowing around the snow that collected on those branches

As usual, there were a number of crashes and slide offs, though I noticed people on Interstate 89 between St. Albans and Burlington were behaving pretty well. Though I learned later, as of around 3:50 p.m. traffic was backed up on the Interstate  northbound near Milton due to a three-car  crash. 

I also see that a school bus slid into a ditch and landed on its side on Route 12 in Middlesex

 A well anticipated "dry slot" - a tongue of dry air drawn into the storm -  was moving into western Vermont as of 3:30.  It'll keep spreading eastward into Vermont to at least mostly and temporarily shut off the snow. Views from Burlington at 4 p.m. showed a small ribbon of sunshine trying to peak through the clouds as it set. 

The wind is stronger in that dry slot, so blowing snow will continue to be a problem this evening.  With the snow getting lighter, but might not entirely stop. Road conditions might improve a little this evening, but won't be perfect. Expect slushy and snow covered roads, and maybe some visibility problems from blowing snow from time to time. 

The dry slot also contains a little bit of warmer air, so temperatures in the Champlain Valley could sneak up to near or a bit above freezing for several hours this evening. That will help improve road conditions somewhat.

The bottom line is your drive home this afternoon and evening won't be great. Many roads are snow packed, or at best, slushy.  To take it easy out there. 

A noticeable cold front barging in toward midnight will quickly drop temperatures into the 20s. Depending on where you are, the drive into work tomorrow morning won't be that great. The Champlain Valley, the Route 7 valley floor in southwest Vermont and the  lower Connecticut Valley should have nothing more than a few icy patches and some nuisances snow showers.

There might also be some trouble once again with blowing and drifting snow in open areas. 

However, the Green Mountains should stay in the snow pretty much all day as wet northwest winds will continually be forced to ride up and over those mountains. The rising air over the mountains means plenty of snow. 

Some summits might see six or more inches of snow. The Jay Peak cloud in the far north seems like it wants to work overtime and has the potential to dump a foot of snow up there.  

 

Wednesday Morning Vermont Winter Weather Update: Snow Delay Helps Morning Commute, Still A Ski Area Storm

This morning's updated National Weather Service 
snow forecast map. Biggest winners are 
the Green Mountains, as usual. Southern Green
Mountains look especially lucky in the 
snow department. Champlain Valley to
escape with just a couple inches. 

As we wake up here in Vermont this Wednesday morning, there are, as always, some changes to the forecast for the latest storm. 

First, we'll quickly clean up some updates on the frigid morning yesterday. 

It turns out the coldest spot in the Lower 48 of the United States yesterday was right here in Vermont. East Haven in the Northeast Kingdom took the honors with a low of 27 below. 

In Burlington, the low of minus 7 in   was the chilliest December temperature since 2017. Burlington has had three days this month already that have been below zero. There have only been seven years since 1884 with that many subzero days by December 9. The last time it happened was in 1989. 

TODAY'S SNOW

Here are the changes to the forecast based on new information since last evening:

Later Onset.

 The biggest and best change is the beginning of the snow is delayed. Much of this morning's commute in most of the state will be OK and better than expected. 

Some light snow was starting here a there as of 7 a.m. today, so there might be some minor issues on the roads. But the heaviest snow should come through between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., says the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Advisory Expanded

The winter weather advisory that covered most of Vermont outside the Champlain and lower Connecticut Valley has been extended to cover far northern Vermont near the Canadian border.  That's not at all a surprise, as that area has been forecast to get quite a bit of snow with this storm for awhile now. 

People who are under the winter weather advisory can expect three to seven inches of snow by 1 a.m. Thursday. 

Valleys "Cheated"

This isn't so much a change in the forecast but rather new information to reinforce the forecast ideas the National Weather Service had yesterday.

Most of the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut Valley are only going to get a couple inches of snow out of this.  Westerly winds aloft will make winds blow down the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains today. Air blowing downhill tends to dry the air out, so that creates  less snow.

Also, warmer air moving in this afternoon will make temperatures pop up to a little above freezing in those valleys. That will tend to settle the snow and maybe make whatever snow is falling mix with a raindrop or two. Finally, a push of dry air entrained into this storm will help shut off most of  the snow in the Champlain Valley later this afternoon. 

Southern Vermont Winter Storm

Another change to the forecast is the winter weather advisory in Vermont's two southernmost counties has been upgraded to a full-blown winter storm warning. I don't think that warning really applies to low elevation towns like Bennington and Brattleboro. Those communities should only see maybe a couple inches. 

But the National Weather Service office in Albany, New York, which covers those two southern counties in Vermont, - Bennington and Windham -  says enough moisture is available to dump six to 12 inches of snow today and this evening across higher elevation of the Greens, above 1,000 feet. I'm sure steep, curvy Route 9 over the hills between Bennington and Brattleboro will be exciting today. 

The southern Vermont ski areas are sharing in the bounty of snow this time, compared to their northern counterparts. 

THURSDAY AND ONWARD

Most of the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut Valley can expect not much more than flurries tomorrow, but the mountains will keep piling up the snow.

Tomorrow will be the famous upslope snows we get behind storm systems, but with a bit of a twist.

Often, the flow of wind from the west and northwest doesn't really make it over the Green Mountains easily. The air rises and the moisture in the air condenses into snow that falls on the summits and western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Tomorrow, in general, that air will of course rise up the western slopes of the Greens, but won't actually get blocked by the mountains so much. That means the moisture condensing into snow will fall on the summits and mostly east of the northern and central Green Mountains.

This mostly means the Northeast Kingdom, and towns immediately to the east of the Greens, like Stowe, might do fairly well with this. 

The weekend is looking chilly. Both Saturday and Sunday might feature scattered light snow, but the main story will be another shot of Arctic cold arriving Sunday. I'll have more on that in future updates. v