Stalled Front To Continue Harassing Vermont With Showers, Storms And Weird Temperatures

This morning's radar shows thunderstorms and heavy rain
in northwest New York near Watertown.  The rain
should weaken some by the time it gets to Vermont, but
it will make for a wet afternoon again. No severe
storms in Vermont today, but they're possible tomorrow

 I knew about an hour after I wrote yesterday's post that severe storms would avoid northern Vermont. North breezes started, introducing cool, stable air to that part of Vermont. 

The stalled west two east front was sharpening  up, with very warm air in southern Vermont, with kind of chilly air to the north. The result was a soaking rain north, and thunderstorms-  some strong  - in the south. 

Trees were reported down in Brattleboro and Vernon. One tree was reported to fall down onto Interstate 89 in Brattleboro, and another one temporarily blocked Route 142 in Vernon.

 Judging from radar images, I suspect the storm also might have caused some damage in lightly populated areas west of Brattleboro. 

We are more or less stuck with the same regime for the next couple of days at least. Northern Vermont should see highs in the 50s today, maybe getting into the low 60s tomorrow. Meanwhile, in the southern Vermont valleys. highs will generally reach the low to mid 70s

Disturbances will continue to ride west to east along our stalled front, causing daily bouts of showers, rain and thunderstorms. 

TODAY

The disturbance coming through this afternoon should be less intense than yesterday's. If there's any thunderstorms at all, they'd be limited to far southern Vermont with no risk of anything severe. 

The north will just be damp. The low clouds and fog early his morning might lift somewhat by noon, but it will still be clouding, cool and somewhat dank. The north should have a rising chance of showers this afternoon, but they won't be nearly as drenching as yesterday. Still, we expect a tenth to a quarter inch of rain this afternoon, so it won't be great being outdoors in that.  

Much like on Tuesday, the storms were in western New York early this morning and were producing a ton of lightning. But unlike yesterday, all that mess is likely to weaken quite a bit by the time it gets to Vermont. 

Highs should range from the low and mid 50s far north to upper 70s far south. Another one of those days! 

TOMORROW

Current severe thunderstorm forecast for tomorrow. Dark green
is level 1 out of 5 risk levels, meaning just a chance of isolated
trouble. Yellow shading is a slightly greater chance of
severe rather. Expect adjustments to this forecast.

A stronger disturbance will come along that stalled front tomorrow. At this point, it looks like Thursday's episode could be similar to yesterday's. 

At least in some ways. These stalled front situations always contain surprises. There will be adjustments to the forecast.  

For now, it looks like the low pressure rippling along the front might push the front northward a little. Since the small storm will be stronger than today's it could add lift and spin to the atmosphere. That means severe thunderstorms might be in play again for the southern half of Vermont. 

 Right now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center gives the highest chances for strong storms to western Rutland and Bennington counties and on into eastern and central New York.  But again, that will probably change somewhat with later forecasts

Northern Vermont can expect another drenching, probably much like yesterday. That means another good half inch of rain, with locally up to an inch. Especially after yesterday, rivers continue to run high, and tomorrow's rain will keep them up.  Flooding is still not expected, but I know the National Weather Service is keeping an eye on it in case rains are unexpectedly heavy. 

High temperatures are tricky for tomorrow, as we still have questions about the amount of cloud cover and the timing of the rain and storms. Early guesses are near 60 near the Canadian border to as high as 80 in the warmest valley floors of far southern Vermont. 

FRIDAY

Yet another disturbance is due Friday, but we don't yet know the strength and timing of that one. Chances are it will be weaker than the one we get tomorrow. 

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

We're finally going to shake out of this stalled weather pattern and front over the weekend, but not necessarily in the way you'd like. At this point, Saturday l, looks decent enough, with a fairly low chance of rain and mild temperatures, fingers crossed. 

But a more north to south oriented cold front will come in Sunday, followed by much colder air that will stick around for perhaps a week, give or take.  Sunday night and Monday look terrible for this time of year. Not record breaking by any stretch of the imagination, but still unpleasant.

We could get a little snow late Sunday night and early Monday, and highs Monday would barely make it into the low 40s. Normal highs for next Monday are in the mid and upper 50s.

The cold should relax a little after that, but it should stay cooler than normal .The generally cool weather has a shot at lasting into May, unfortunately.