After A Noisy Night Tonight, A Showery Warm Vermont Springtime Week Due

Daffodil shoots really beginning to grow in St. Albans
Vermont. A wet, warm week, marked by balmy nights
should have daffodils blooming in my yard by
next weekend, if not sooner. 

Saturday wasn't quite the bright and sunny day we hoped for, especially in northern Vermont. Instability clouds lingered, leading to a blustery, cloudy day. Southern Vermont did break into the sun. 

If you like sun, this isn't going to be your week, but on the bright side, many of us will see plenty of April showers, the ones that stereotypically lead to May flowers. And spring allergies. That's especially true since it still looks like we have mild weather on the way. 

TODAY/TONIGHT

Get out first thing this morning if you like to bask in sunshine, as there will be only glimpses of sun during most of the week. 

It started out in the 20s for most of us today, but the morning sun will help get us into the 50s by early afternoon. There were already high clouds out there as of 8 a.m.. Those clouds will thicken and lower today, blotting out the sun. By late this afternoon, it will be gray and overcast and blah, with rain on our doorsteps. 

The culprit is a warm front. That will spread a bunch of rain across Vermont overnight and through much of Monday. It'll also get windy overnight, especially in the Champlain Valley. 

That will create the classic Vermont noisy night: We'll hear bursts of rain on the roof and the roar of wind through the trees, especially before and near dawn tomorrow.  Somehow, that kind of weather makes me sleep better, but I'm sure that's not the same for everyone.

The winds will probably be strongest during the early morning hours. During that time, the rain will have tapered off somewhat.

Strong winds from aloft mix down to the surface better when it's not really raining, hence the stronger winds when we're out of the showers.

 This won't be any kind of destructive wind storm. It'll be what we've seen repeatedly over the past three weeks or so. Gusts will go over 40 mph in many places in the Champlain Valley. In the rest of Vermont outside the higher peaks, winds would gust in the 25 to 35 mph range. 

If you've gotten optimistic and put out lightweight summer furniture and decorations, you might find them blown against the fence line by tomorrow bring. 

There's even a very slight chance of thunder, but I think we're a bit more likely to see thunder later in the week. 

The risk of shower will continue through Monday, but I don't think it will rain all the time. 

Southwest winds aloft might limit precipitation overnight and much of Monday might help the Adirondacks block moisture to the Champlain Valley. Those areas might only see a quarter to a third of an inch of rain by Monday afternoon. The lower Connecticut River Valley should also see about that amount of rain. 

Most of the rest of northern and central Vermont should see at least a half inch of rain with up to an inch in the Green Mountains. 

All this will allow rivers to rise again, but it doesn't look like it'll be enough to set off any real flooding. 

REST OF THE WEEK

The "cold front" from this storm will arrive late in the afternoon tomorrow. I've got it in quotation marks because it won't exactly make us cold.  Mostly because it should stall out somewhere near northern Vermont. 

Places north of Route 2 might be a little cooler during the first half of the week because of this front.  We'll once again see that wide range in Vermont temperatures we've seen so often this spring.  

It's a little tough to predict actual temperatures because it all depends on where that front sets up. But for now, it looks like far northern Vermont will hold in the 58 to 65 degree range for daily highs Monday through Thursday. 

Meanwhile, valleys in far southern Vermont could see highs in the mid-70s for three or four days in a row, which its fairly impressive for April. 

The more eye-popping warm temperatures with this weather setup will be the overnight lows.  Minimum daily temperatures Tuesday through the weekend should range from the upper 40s to upper 50s.  That's pretty close to record high low temperatures for this time of year. Confusing sentence, there, but you get the point. 

The warm nights will also ensure that the pace of spring will move incredibly fast. It's possible a few trees in the balmier valleys of southern Vermont could start to turn green much earlier than normal. Here in northern Vermont, I strongly suspect I'll have daffodils blooming by next weekend. 

Disturbances riding along the front will keep a chance of showers and even thunderstorms in the forecast every day this week. It won't rain all the time. In fact southern Vermont should be dry most of the time. Pinning down the exact timing of the showers is of course early impossible this far in advance. 

Have an umbrella handy all week if you don't want rain to ruin your perfect hairdo, or something like that. 

The west to east orientation of the front looks like it could change to more of a north/south arrangement by the weekend. As it sets up to the west, all of Vermont could see a day or two in the 70s or even near 80 if we get lucky. 

If we had to guess when that front would finally come through Vermont and head east, we'd think maybe next Sunday or Monday.  After it comes through, our summer in April will end amid cooler, blustery weather.