From Snow To A Fire Risk As Quick Spring Weather Changes Continue In Vermont

It''s that time of year when we start seeing
brush fire dangers in Vermont. For
today, yellow areas have a  high
fire danger, while blue areas
have a moderate danger. 

 Most of the snow from earlier this week has melted away - at least at low elevations. And now, Vermont suddenly faces a brush fire risk today. 

As expected, yesterday featured wall-to-wall sunshine and very low humidity. That evaporated most of the snow quickly to the point where I could tell by late afternoon that the dry weeds from last year were tinder dry already. 

True, there were still patches of snow in the shadows where the sun wasn't able to penetrate. But those patches are few and far between. Today, believe it or not, is a day to be really, really careful with fire.

Especially in the Champlain Valley. 

TODAY

The high pressure that brought the record cold Wednesday morning to Saranac Lake, New York and Montpelier, Vermont has headed to our east, as expected. 

A squeeze play was setting up between that high pressure to our east and a cold front far to our northwest. The result is some dry south to southwest winds that were already starting to pick up in the Champlain Valley as of 8 a.m.  

Those winds will keep increasing. By late this morning though early evening, gusts will reach to between 35 and 40 mph in the Champlain Valley and 20 to 30 mph elsewhere. Except maybe in the lower Connecticut Valley and protected valleys in eastern Vermont, where the winds will be a little lighter.

Since it's so dry, the slightest spark could set that dry brush on fire. That fire would spread fast and be hard to control given how gusty it is and how dry the air is. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says there's a high fire danger all through western Vermont west of the Green Mountains. Also in the lower Connecticut River Valley, which has had little precipitation recently. Elsewhere, the fire danger in Vermont is moderate. Mostly due to a few snow patches and wet spots left in mid elevations. 

This sort of situation is common in April. Parched, sunny air and winds can really dry out all that dead brush, even if it rained or snowed just a couple days earlier. 

We already had one small, but briefly out of control brush fire in Northfield yesterday, even before the wind started to blow. So today's the day not to flick your cigarette butt out your car window. And that brush pile in the back 40 that needs to be burned should wait for some more damp weather. 

Which is on its way. 

TONIGHT/FRIDAY

The dry winds will continue to blow tonight, but not as strongly . The humidity will be a little higher.  There might even be a brief sprinkle north, but don't count on it. All those factors will diminish but not get rid of the fire danger.

The winds and fire risk should continue for part of tomorrow. but that cold front will slowly approach, then arrive with its showers in the afternoon and evening. 

This will be no means be a blockbuster rain, but it will tamp down the fire risk. Some areas of northern Vermont could see up to a third of an inch of rain, but most of us should stay under a quarter inch.  Southeastern Vermont, and maybe parts of the Champlain Valley could stay under a tenth of an inch. So not exactly a memorable storm. 

By the way, hights today ad tomorrow should be well into the 50s to maybe low 60s in spots, so fairly mild!

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

It'll be a classic bright April weekend in Vermont with cool breezes, and a fair amount of sun. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be fairly close to 50 degrees, but Sunday should be the warmer of the two days. 

Things kind of get interesting next week as a sort of stalled weather pattern develops. Vermont will stay near a boundary separating warm, humid air to the south and chilly air to the north. We might start getting a few days thrown in where the far north of Vermont is in the 40s and low 50s while the far south is in the 70s. 

For now, though, the first couple of days of next week look pretty balmy statewide.

That's not a firm forecast yet, because we don't know exactly where the front will set up on any given day. Also, again, depending on where the front and disturbances riding along position themselves. It also looks like there's chances of showers or even thunderstorms each day next week starting Monday 

This pattern is also ominous for much of the Plains and Midwest, as it creates conditions for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes out there.