From Snow To A Fire Risk As Quick Spring Weather Changes Continue In Vermont

It''s that time of year when we start seeing
brush fire dangers in Vermont. For
today, yellow areas have a  high
fire danger, while blue areas
have a moderate danger. 

 Most of the snow from earlier this week has melted away - at least at low elevations. And now, Vermont suddenly faces a brush fire risk today. 

As expected, yesterday featured wall-to-wall sunshine and very low humidity. That evaporated most of the snow quickly to the point where I could tell by late afternoon that the dry weeds from last year were tinder dry already. 

True, there were still patches of snow in the shadows where the sun wasn't able to penetrate. But those patches are few and far between. Today, believe it or not, is a day to be really, really careful with fire.

Especially in the Champlain Valley. 

TODAY

The high pressure that brought the record cold Wednesday morning to Saranac Lake, New York and Montpelier, Vermont has headed to our east, as expected. 

A squeeze play was setting up between that high pressure to our east and a cold front far to our northwest. The result is some dry south to southwest winds that were already starting to pick up in the Champlain Valley as of 8 a.m.  

Those winds will keep increasing. By late this morning though early evening, gusts will reach to between 35 and 40 mph in the Champlain Valley and 20 to 30 mph elsewhere. Except maybe in the lower Connecticut Valley and protected valleys in eastern Vermont, where the winds will be a little lighter.

Since it's so dry, the slightest spark could set that dry brush on fire. That fire would spread fast and be hard to control given how gusty it is and how dry the air is. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says there's a high fire danger all through western Vermont west of the Green Mountains. Also in the lower Connecticut River Valley, which has had little precipitation recently. Elsewhere, the fire danger in Vermont is moderate. Mostly due to a few snow patches and wet spots left in mid elevations. 

This sort of situation is common in April. Parched, sunny air and winds can really dry out all that dead brush, even if it rained or snowed just a couple days earlier. 

We already had one small, but briefly out of control brush fire in Northfield yesterday, even before the wind started to blow. So today's the day not to flick your cigarette butt out your car window. And that brush pile in the back 40 that needs to be burned should wait for some more damp weather. 

Which is on its way. 

TONIGHT/FRIDAY

The dry winds will continue to blow tonight, but not as strongly . The humidity will be a little higher.  There might even be a brief sprinkle north, but don't count on it. All those factors will diminish but not get rid of the fire danger.

The winds and fire risk should continue for part of tomorrow. but that cold front will slowly approach, then arrive with its showers in the afternoon and evening. 

This will be no means be a blockbuster rain, but it will tamp down the fire risk. Some areas of northern Vermont could see up to a third of an inch of rain, but most of us should stay under a quarter inch.  Southeastern Vermont, and maybe parts of the Champlain Valley could stay under a tenth of an inch. So not exactly a memorable storm. 

By the way, hights today ad tomorrow should be well into the 50s to maybe low 60s in spots, so fairly mild!

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

It'll be a classic bright April weekend in Vermont with cool breezes, and a fair amount of sun. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be fairly close to 50 degrees, but Sunday should be the warmer of the two days. 

Things kind of get interesting next week as a sort of stalled weather pattern develops. Vermont will stay near a boundary separating warm, humid air to the south and chilly air to the north. We might start getting a few days thrown in where the far north of Vermont is in the 40s and low 50s while the far south is in the 70s. 

For now, though, the first couple of days of next week look pretty balmy statewide.

That's not a firm forecast yet, because we don't know exactly where the front will set up on any given day. Also, again, depending on where the front and disturbances riding along position themselves. It also looks like there's chances of showers or even thunderstorms each day next week starting Monday 

This pattern is also ominous for much of the Plains and Midwest, as it creates conditions for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes out there. 

Coldest Vermont/New York April Morning In A Decade; Spring Returns This Afternoon. Believe It Or Not, Fire Danger By Tomorrow?

A wintry April scene in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
this evening, but by noon, most of this snow will
be gone, and we can get back to our regularly
scheduled spring. 

As expected, we had some winter cold to start this clear April morning, and some areas around Vermont and New York really got into this January-like spell. 

Saranac Lake, New York was down to a wild minus 3 this morning, which the latest in the season subzero temperature I've seen in the region in decades..

I did find one later in the season subzero reading in Saranac Lake. It was 3 below there way back on April 12, 1926.

Here in Vermont, I saw that it had gotten to at least 3 above zero at Lake Eden, so it's   a cold hollow or two in the Northeast Kingdom could have touched zero early this morning. 

Elsewhere, Montpelier got down to 14 degrees, tying their record low for the date, first set in 1982.   

Burlington did not come close to its record low, which is 11 degrees back in 1972. It got down to 16 degrees, though. The last time it was colder than that was a decade ago when in reached 14 degrees on April 5, 2016.   

I noticed the birds, which have been making a racket most mornings, have been pretty silent this morning. I think gardens might have lost their shot at magnolia flowers later this morning. However, the daffodil, crocus and hyacinth shoots that have been poking up should survive this just fine. 

Also, spring staples such as lilacs should also be fine, as the buds are still currently pretty tight and small. 

TODAY:

With the strong April sun out there, temperatures should rocket upward super fast this morning, topping out in the 40s this afternoon.  That's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. But light winds and that sun will make it feel even warmer than it is. 

Where there's snow on the ground, it'll melt very fast, except in the shade. The humidity today will be at rock bottom.  It's hard to melt even a little snow in the shade when it's this dry, so the dark corners of your yard might still have snow on them at the end of the day. In the dry sun, the snow should disappear in a flash. 

FIRE DANGER?

This seems far fetched, given that many of us are started the day with snow on the ground, but by tomorrow, we'll actually have a  fire danger here in Vermont. 

In today's super low humidity, the snow will basically evaporate in the sun. Many areas of Vermont don't really even have snow on the ground this morning, especially in the Connecticut River Valley, so the moisture on the ground will dry quickly. 

There's no real greenery yet this time of year, so all those dry grasses and weeds and such are just kindling waiting to burn. Tomorrow, the sun should stay out, the humidity will stay very low, and the wind should pick up. 

In the Champlain Valley, winds by tomorrow afternoon should gust to 35 or even 40 mph. Elsewhere, most places should see gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. That's more than enough to spread even a small fire across the dry landscape. 

It might seem awfully sudden to go from snow to a fire hazard, but that's really common this time of year. High pressure systems from Canada are particularly dry this time of year. It's also a windy season and, as noted, things on the ground haven't greened up yet. This is pretty much peak fire season in Vermont. 

We've already had one large fire this year in Ferrisburgh that burned through 100 acres or so on March 31,  So we're already off to a not-great start this year.   

SPRING

On the bright side, spring weather will continue. It should get well into the 50s tomorrow. If a cold front holds off long enough on Friday, we could see some 60s.  It does look like a little rain might come through during the day or evening on Friday - those traditional April shower.

After a somewhat cooler but definitely not cold Saturday (highs in the low 50s), we could have a day or two threatening the 70 degree mark early next week. 

Nor'easter Now Battering East Coast, To Worsen Later Today, Monday. Causing Vermont Fire Weather Concerns

The center of our nor'easter is off the coast of North
Carolina, but that big sweep of clouds across
the East Coast is where strong northeast winds
are pushing Atlantic Ocean water ashore, 
causing a lot of coastal flooding. 

 The big nor'easter, as expected, is battering the East Coast this morning, but the worst of the damage will wait until this afternoon, overnight and Monday to peak. 

The highest storm surges in the Mid-Atlantic states and parts of the Northeast are expected this afternoon, and especially overnight and Monday. Major flooding and horrible beach erosion are in the forecast, and damage to lots of shoreline homes and businesses is inevitable. 

Up here in Green Mountain State, the storm will oddly raise the risk of forest fires today, at least for a brief window in time. More on that below, in the "Vermont Effects" section.

WHY IT'S BAD

The center of the storm was just off the coast of southeast North Carolina this morning. The actual storm will only make it as far north as a point off Virginia coast by tomorrow. But strong high pressure in Quebec, combined with the storm, is setting up a long fetch of east winds off the Atlantic Ocean in a large area north of the storm  

That's what's pushing all the water into the Eastern Seaboard, with destructive results. The fact the storm is moving so slowly is a big part of the problem. That means water will keep getting pushed into the shore, so each successive tide is higher. 

 Water won't be able to properly drain from bays and estuaries between high tides, so flooding will keep getting worse until the storm weakens and moves further offshore on Tuesday. 

At Cape May, New Jersey, they're expecting the tide to reach 8.3 feet, which would be their third highest on record. Atlantic City, New Jersey expects a level of 8 feet, the highest since Superstorm Sandy. Atlantic City starts to consider mandatory evacuations at 8 feet, so stay tuned on that. 

The long-duration event means that trouble will last through several high tide cycles. That means beach erosion and coastal dune destruction will be much worse than you'd see in a storm that's moving along at at a decent, normal pace. 

DAMAGE ALREADY STARTING

These two houses in Buxton, North Carolina, pictured
Saturday are at risk of falling into the ocean during
this nor'easter. Nine other houses fell into the ocean
amid high waves last week.

The storm is not at its crescendo yet, and it's already causing damage. 

On the Outer Banks of North Carolina, winds have already gusted as high as 61 mph. Parts of Route 12, the main route through there, are closed because of over wash from the ocean. Nine homes fell into the sea there recently due to battering waves from offshore hurricanes. 

There's no word yet on whether any other homes have fallen yet with this storm, but video showed houses in Buxton and Rodanthe, North Carolina being battered by storm surges and waves. 

Tides reached to three feet above average in Charleston, South Carolina, flooding many downtown and residential streets with water. 

The storm will probably disrupt air travel along the East Coast. Airline schedules are already rickety because the government shutdown is prompting protests from air traffic controllers who are not getting paid. Some of those controllers are calling in "sick" in protest, which is causing flight delays even before you factor in stormy weather.

I'm sure we'll have updates as the storm progresses.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Rainfall predictions in Vermont with this nor'easter are
mostly  unchanged, with near an inch in the southeast
corner ranging down to very little up near
the Canadian border, 

Nor'easters affect Vermont all the time, but this is the first time I've heard of one increasing the fire forest fire hazard. Until now. Things are weird with the weather around here, and this is another example.  

As the storm gets going, and strong high pressure to the north hangs on, east winds will increase, mostly in southern Vermont.   Despite the rain we had last week, it's still really dry. We're in a drought, after all. 

Given how dry it is, those winds could really spread brush fires if they get going.  Especially as those winds are forecast to reach 30 mph or so in many areas of southern Vermont. 

The winds will be a little lighter in northern parts of the state but they'll still be noticeable. The humidity will be lower in northern Vermont, so that will aggravate the fire risk there. Today will be sunnier than first thought, too, as the increase in clouds and humidity is coming in later originally planned. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates the fire danger today as very high. 

Our nor'easter is still expected to spread rain into Vermont, but how much is the question. The forest fire danger in southern Vermont will get tamped down - at least temporarily - starting this evening when rain moves in. 

The rain will spread northward overnight and on Monday. But meteorologists still think the dry, big high pressure area to the north will feed in so much dry air that it will evaporate and overwhelm the moisture heading our way. 

The end result is forecast rainfall hasn't changed much since yesterday's forecast, despite the tricky nature of predicting the northern edge of a coastal storm. Forecasters are going for around an inch in far southeast Vermont, which will be very helpful there. 

Amounts will taper off to perhaps a half inch in central Vermont and just a tenth of an inch near the Canadian border, if that. I wouldn't be surprised if places like St. Albans, Highgate and Newport get nothing at all.  I also wouldn't be surprised if rainfall totals anywhere in Vermont come out different than forecast. 

After a mild afternoon today, it will turn cooler again. Clouds will hold temperatures down into the 50s tomorrow. Dry north winds during the rest of the week will keep things cool, too. At least through Friday. 

After this storm disappears by Tuesday morning, I don't see a chance of any further rain in Vermont other than light showers at least until next Monday. 

. 

 

Fire And Frost Again In Vermont, Fire Risk To Last Longer

Leaves are coming off the trees, like these maples
near Richmond, Vermont on Tuesday. The leaf
litter is adding to the fire risk that the 
Vermont drought has created. 

Henry the Weather Dog, a native of Texas, didn't stay outside nearly as long as he usually does when he went outdoors early in the morning. 

He didn't like the temperatures near 40 degrees here in St. Albans, especially considering the chilly north breeze bringing wind chills into the 30s.  It doesn't bode well for winter, but we'll deal with it. 

Those chilly breezes are a sign that frost and a higher fire danger are back to harass us in Vermont. 

FIRE DANGER

The strongest breezes today will be in the Champlain Valley, due to the funneling effect of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks. Those gusts should go at at least 25 mph. The skies will stay clear, and the relative humidity will drop to around 30 percent. 

There are a lot more dried, dead leaves on the ground than there was in mid-September, so there's more fuel for any fire starts. The wind and low humidity will make any fires that start spread fast. 

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement alerting the public to the fire danger. 

The fire danger is very high today in
western Vermont and the lower 
Connecticut River valley, and
high elsewhere in the state today.

The fire danger is high all over Vermont, of course, but the states's Forests, Parks and Recreation department lists the danger as very high west of the Green Mountains and in the lower Connecticut River valley and high elsewhere.  

The risk of fires will keep going at least through Monday, as sunny skies and dry air will continue through the weekend. 

Winds will be lighter, so fires that start might not spread as quickly as it would if it stayed windy. But you'll surely see reports of new brush fires here and there in and near Vermont. 

You'll need to be especially careful with fire for the foreseeable future.

FROST RISK AGAIN

As mentioned it was chilly this morning.  Most of us got down well into the 30s, with some temperatures near 40 near Lake Champlain. 

It won't warm up all that much this afternoon.  It's the first day of October, and fittingly, it'll be a classic autumn day. That breeze will add to the crispness of the air. 

High temperatures will only reach the 50s with maybe a few low 60s in southern Vermont valleys. That'll be the chilliest day of the year so far, which isn't saying much. It's been warm lately, so today's weather seems cold. But the expected highs today aren't at all odd for the beginning of October.  (I'll have a complete climate summary for September in a post later today).  

Today's brisk weather will set us up for a frosty night. A frost advisory is in effect for all of Vermont overnight and early Thursday except for Grand Isle County and the Northeast Kingdom. 

The lack of any frost of freeze alerts in the Northeast Kingdom is because the growing season is considering over up that way, so there's no need for such alerts

A warming trend will start tomorrow, but it will still be a little cool, with highs in the 58 to 65 degree rage

But that warming trend means business. By Sunday and Monday, warmer valleys could reach 80 degrees. That will bring us close to record highs for this time of year. 

There's a chance of showers in about a week from now, but whatever comes along won't be impressive and won't solve the drought. It will also probably turn much colder again in about a week. Summer is over, after all. 

Even After A Rain, Drought Conditions Quickly Favor Return To Fire Danger

A pretty sky on a brilliant September day Monday
as seen from a hillside near Richmond, Vermont

You can tell we needed a lot more rain than what we got Friday and Saturday to dig ourselves out of the drought. 

One sunny, breezy, admittedly gorgeous Vermont Monday and it's already getting parched out there. 

The rain from Saturday soaked in a little, but only wetted the thinnest top layer of soil. That's already drying out. 

You can tell the rain did little good because river levels scarcely budged from their low levels. 

Rock bottom low Lake Champlain rose a whole 0.03 inches from late last week to a 93.38 feet yesterday, an incredibly low level. 

So, given this, we'll have to watch for occasional fire risk days when low humidity and breezy winds overlap for the rest of this autumn until we get some soaking rains. As leaves die and drop and weeds and vegetation turn brown and dormant, the fire risk will rise. 

We'd better pray for a soggy mid and late autumn

THE FORECAST/FIRE RISKS

They did get some frost in the very coldest hollows last night. There were some reports of low to mid 30s in the Northeast Kingdom. The always-cold spot Saranac Lake, New York in the Adirondacks was down to 29 degrees. It was 32 there yesterday, ending their always short growing season. This year, it was 97 days between the last spring freeze and the first one of the fall.

All the rest of us, of course, escaped anything like that. I'm grateful the wildfire smoke in the atmosphere has been pretty minimal around here lately.  It was nice to see that deep blue sky between the decorative clouds in the sky during the day Monday, 

The very low humidity will continue to dry out the landscape over the next few days. Today, the fire danger is high in southern Vermont and just moderate in northern Vermont, where better rains fell  Saturday.

We'll continue to have cool nights and warm sunny days today and tomorrow, (lows 40-52, highs well into the 70s) and plentiful sunshine. But we won't have much wind. So if a fire were to start, it wouldn't spread too fast. And the lingering but waning moisture from the weekend might also hinder the spread. 

THURSDAY DANGER

The potential problems come Thursday. By then, the fine fuels that can catch fire - dry grass, weeds and leaves) will have dried out completely after Saturday's rain. 

Meanwhile, the drought has gotten so bad that big things in the forests like big dead branches and fallen logs have really dried out.  It takes a long time for those objects to get dry enough to burn efficiently, but we've accomplished that this year.  Once they dry out, it takes a lot of rain to get them sort of too wet to burn once again.

If these big branches and logs do burn,  they can generate a lot of heat and can make fire behavior more dangerous than usual. And make it much more difficult to contain a forest fire.   

It's one reason why droughts are so dangerous 

The reason I bring this up when I'm talking about this coming Thursday is another cold front is coming. It will have no rain with it like most cold fronts do. But it will generate some gusty north winds. It won't be a gale, but the 25 mph gusts could spell trouble. 

That kind of wind is enough to make it easy for fires to start and spread quickly. With all that dry stuff in the woods we can really have some trouble.

Which is why we all have to be careful with fires. Especially on Thursday. If we don't start any blazes, then there's no problem. At least in terms of wildfires. 

The wind should quickly calm down late Thursday night, so at least the gusts won't last long. The next chance of somewhat windy weather is Saturday, when breezes will pick up from the south.

We do have a slight chance of light showers Sunday, but that's iffy. If it does rain, it will be very light - easily less than a tenth an inch. Which wouldn't do much good.  There's a good chance it might not rain at all. 

According to a lot of the forecasts I've seen, the next shot at any real rain in Vermont would come around September 20.  That's an awful long time to wait in a drought like this.

Oddly Gorgeous November Weather Continues Vermont/Northeast Fire Risk

Another day, another nearly identical wildfire risk as Friday in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast..

Often this time of year, I post almost daily'
snowfall prediction maps. This November,
it's fire prediction maps for Vermont.
Today's fire danger is very high
(orange) in most of Vermont. 

I guess I'm focusing on the dark side of what has been a very strangely bright and sunny Vermont November. 

True, we've gotten a huge break from the usually dark and clammy Novembers we're used to. It's actually a pleasure going outdoors this month, which is not how one would usually describe a New England November.. 

But, as gorgeous as it is, the fire danger is the real news, and the thing that we have to sound the alarm on.

For the second day in a row, a red flag warning for fire danger is in effect for pretty much all of central and southern Vermont. 

That red flag warning extends through the rest of central and southern New England, through southern New York, all of New Jersey and in eastern Pennsylvania.

Fire departments, forestry officials and emergency managers will once again be busy today throughout the region. 

VERMONT SITUATION

Back here in Vermont, the Saturday risk of brush and wildfires isn't limited to the red flag warning zone. That's just where the risk is greatest. Wildfires can get going anywhere the Green Mountain State today. The ongoing dry weather/drought, sunshine, low humidity and a steady north wind are all conspiring to increase the risk. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rate today's fire risk as very high across Vermont today, though it is "merely" high in the Champlain Valley. Which means we should be on high alert.  

The department has already dealt with some small brush fires this week. One of the worst of the week so far was down in Pownal Friday, where a trailer fire spread and became a brush fire. 

In neighboring Pittsfield, Massachusetts, a brush fire ignited a house, a clear demonstration that a forest fire doesn't always stay in the forest. Beware.

I suppose the least risky area today is the Champlain Valley, where it has been ever so slightly wetter than other parts of the state. That's not saying much, as Burlington has so far this month received about a quarter inch of rain in a time period where we should have had nearly an inch and a half.  

Winds will probably be slightly lighter in the Champlain Valley than elsewhere in the state today, which helps a smidge. But there's still quite a fire danger there, too.

Bottom line: Enjoy today's oddly mild and sunny November weather. Just do it without involving fire.

  Sunday and Beyond 

Tomorrow looks a little safer in Vermont, but that's not saying much. It'll still be dry, with low humidity. But at least winds will be light, so any fires that do start won't spread so easily. 

A weak little system might drop a few hundreds of an inch of rain - a pittance really - on northern Vermont Monday.  That's the same kind of inconsequential stuff we've kept seeing all month. And once again, like the previous episodes this November, it's doubtful it will rain at all in southern Vermont. Those sprinkles will avoid southern New England, and the Mid-Atlantic, too.

That'll keep the fire risk going.

There's still hope that a brief change in the weather pattern could give us our first fairly substantial rain (and possibly some snow) starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend. If we get that kind of storm, it won't be nearly enough to stave off the developing drought, but it would go a long way toward finally tamping down the fire risk.

It's That Windy Time Of Year In Vermont/Northeast, Unlike Most Novembers These Winds Are Fiery

Gusty winds last week tossing these chaotic clouds
around over St. Albans, Vermont. We've entered
Vermont's gusty season

 Especially if you live in or near the Champlain Valley or in upper elevations of Vermont, you might have noticed it's been pretty windy lately. 

We've definitely entered the Green Mountain State's gusty season.

Nine of the first 11 days of November in Burlington have featured gusts to at least 34 mph. Three of them gusty over 40 mph. 

The wind in Vermont was strong enough Friday to cause a few scattered power outages. 

Now that we're into November, the weather systems crossing the nation are energized by a jet stream that's usually right over the United States this time of year. 

That means bigger storm systems, which translates to windier systems. Routine low pressure systems or average areas of high pressure for this time of year and still make it plenty breezy. 

It's usually windiest in the Champlain Valley, especially when the wind is from the south. The topography of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains funnels south winds. 

Of course, we also have surges of strong wind from the northwest behind cold fronts and departing storms. That's the situation we find ourselves in today. 

We'll see gusts to 40 mph.  Today will also be an example of how we are now also getting into wind chill season.  Highs today will only be in the 30s to near 40 for most of us. Those gusty winds will make it feel more like it's in the 20s. In other words. Winter. 

FIRES

 In almost all Novembers, all this wind in the Northeast is not a big deal, unless the storm in question is so strong that the winds start blowing down trees or causing structural damage. But that's an exception. Usually it's just hang on to your hat weather. 

We're in a much worse situation this year, though. 

This autumn has featured record dryness in the Northeast, and the brush and forest fires rage on, spread by erratic winds that blow from a particular direction one day, and the opposite direction the next.

Rain that fell on the region Sunday and Sunday night was disappointingly light and din't make a real difference in the situation. What little moisture fell dried out quickly and it's still crunchy dry in much of the East. 

In northern Vermont, we should be OK Tuesday as early morning rain showers, changing to some snow showers in higher elevations have wetted things down again just a little. It'll get us through most of the day, anyway. 

The southeastern half of Vermont got very little or no precipitation last night, and drought conditions are worse there than in  northern Vermont. That means today's blustery northwest could really spread any fires that get going there. The humidity in the air will crash as the sun comes out later, too, which won;t help.

One piece of good news: A 10-acre brush fire in West Brattleboro, Vermont that started Friday was brought under control Sunday. 

From Massachusetts on south and west to the Mid-Atlantic States, it's even worse. Paltry showers early Monday quickly dried out, and existing wildfires continue to burn today. The dry windy weather today just make matters worse. 

A burn ban that was in effect until Monday has been extended another week in southern Vermont. But anywhere in Vermont, you probably shouldn't do any outdoor burns until we get a decent amount of rain and.or snow. 

A red flag warning for fire danger is in effect today for all of southern New England and southeastern New York.  

I think what worries everyone is, if it doesn't rain soon and an intense, dry wind hits, that could drive the eastern wildfires through neighborhoods and destroy houses and other structures. We don't need something like the deadly firestorm that trashed swaths of Gatlinburg, Tennessee back in late November, 2016.

After today, it looks like we'll see a semi-break from the winds for a few days, though Saturday might prove to be blustery.

That seeming anti-rain force field will hold strong over southern New England and much of the Mid-Atlantic States for at least the next week.  Little or no rain is forecast for that region for at least th next seven days.    

Remarkably Dry Weather In Much Of Eastern United States Raises Fire Concerns, Including Here In Vermont

A forest fire burns near Camels Hump, Vermont in October, 2016. 
Similar conditions to that year could start some wildfires
this year since it's been so dry.

The northeastern United States has gotten bone dry this autumn, and that's beginning to cause real problems, and threatening new ones.  

Some areas in the Northeast haven't seen any measurable rain all month, and stand a chance of attaining an entirely rain-free month 

Only a trace of rain  has fallen in New York City's Central Park so far this month. The last rain they had was 0.03 inches on September 29.  

The entire month of September featured just 0.68 inches of rain. September and October in Central Park would normally see a combined total of about 7.8 inches.

Places like Philadelphia and Newark have also seen no measurable rain this month. 

Here in Vermont, it's been a little wetter, but that's not saying much. Burlington has managed just 1.57 inches so far in October.  Montpelier has had barely an inch. And at least we have some scant amounts of rain in our forecast. 

FIRE RISK

Still, it's quite dry. 

Plus, throughout Vermont and the rest of the Northeast, we've had plenty of sunny, breezy and very dry days all through the autumn, which has helped dry things out. Temperatures have   been warmer than normal this autumn, which tends to exacerbate 

Now that the foliage season is approaching an end, all those fallen leaves are drying out, which provides potential fuel for brush and wildfires.

Today could be a particularly troublesome day in Vermont. Gusty, warm, dry south winds are expected ahead of a cold front, which would help spread any fires that start. As of early this morning the wind had already really picked up in the Champlain Valley.

Those winds will mix down some dry air from aloft later this morning and this afternoon. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds is a recipe for wildfires to start.

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has declared a very high risk today for forest and wildfires. It's rare that they make that kind of designation. 

Elsewhere in the Northeast the fire danger is if anything even greater than in Vermont, since even less rain has fallen lately in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States.

An 80 to 90-acre wildfire near Berlin, Connecticut is still burning and has claimed the life of one firefighter who was involved in an off-road vehicle crash while trying to get to the blaze. 

Several wildfires have burned in New Jersey, endangering some structures and sent billowing smoke into nearby communities.

DROUGHT

It also appears a flash drought might be developing in much of the Northeast.  Most droughts take months or even years to take hold as rainfall in a particular area remains scant for long periods of time

A flash flood is akin to a flash flood. Flash floods develop often in minutes.  Flash droughts obviously don't move nearly that fast, but they often become apparent within weeks.

As of last Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor had nearly a quarter of the northeastern United States in drought conditions. 

In Vermont, the U.S, Drought Monitor has designated the southern third of the state as "abnormally dry" with a small patch of drought showing up in far southern Vermont.

The next Drought Monitor report comes out tomorrow, and I bet it will show drought and abnormally dry conditions have expanded greatly in the Northeast over the past week.  

OUTLOOK

Precious little rain is in the forecast for the Northeast.

The latest seven day outlooks forecast no rain for places like New York City and Philadelphia, that takes them to at least October 30 with no additional rain.

We're doing slightly better in Vermont, especially across the north, but that's not saying much.  

A sharp cold front forecast to come through tonight. Though temperatures will drop quite a bit, the front will provide only a tenth of an inch of rain or so in northern Vermont and perhaps nothing in the south. 

More dry, breezy weather is due Thursday and Friday. Another cold front over the weekend, but that one will  probably also dump less than a tenth of an inch of rain in the north and very little in the south. 

Longer range forecasts call for below normal precipitation at least into the first week of November. 

GRIM AUTUMN FIRE HISTORY

Very dry autumns have led to some of the worst wildfires on record for the Midwest and eastern United States. This is shaping up to be an autumn in some areas like 1871, 1947 and 2016, which brought some extremely deadly and dangerous forest fires.

Some examples:

Peshtigo, Wisconsin, 1871:

On the same night as the famous Great Chicago Fire on October 8, 1871, a screaming wildfire know as the Peshtigo fire swept through eastern Wisconsin, claiming at least 1,200 lives.  We don't hear much about this one, since the Chicago fire got all the attention, but this Wisconsin fire was obviously much worse in terms of loss of life.

A long-lasting drought combined with strong, dry winds from a storm well off to the west created the Peshtigo firestorm. 

Maine, 1947.

New England endured repeated bouts of record heat and continually dry conditions through the late summer and autumn of 1947.

These conditions created numerous wildfires in Maine during October, 1947. Those fires burned through  220,000 acres, destroyed about 1,000 homes and left 16 people dead.

Gatlinburg, Tennessee, 2016

A long-lasting drought in Appalachia in the autumn of 2016 contributed to a forest fire that broke out in the east Tennessee mountains on November 23 that year. On the night of November 28, intense winds sent the fire roaring into the resort city of Gatlinburg and surrounding hills, damaging or destroying 2,400 buildings and claiming 14 lives.

I'm not saying we're in for any fires as awful as these examples. But it's a warning to be really cautious with fire in this oddly dry, warm autumn of 2024. 

No Drought Worries Yet In Vermont As Long Dry Spell Continues

For the first time this year, the grass on parts of my yard
in St. Albans, Vermont is getting brown thanks to a long
dry spell. You can also see a hose leading past the frame
to the raised beds down the hill.

 In almost the entire state of Vermont, it's now been a week and a half without a drop of rain. 

You've probably had to water any lingering plants  you want to preserve into the autumn. 

For the first time this year, I've noticed a few brown or at least brownish areas on some lawns, including a few spots on mine here in St. Albans. 

The lack of rain is still absolutely nothing to worry about, unless this goes on for weeks or months. Which I doubt will happen. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor, which comes out every Thursday, still doesn't show any drought in the Green Mountain State. 

The drought monitor has a five-point scale to describe levels of dryness in an area. The lowest level is "abnormally dry," which isn't quite drought but indicates an area that is at risk for one. 

Then the scale goes upward to moderate drought, then "severe", "extreme" and the worst cast scenario "exceptional."

This dry spell has had the "abnormally dry" category beginning to take shape and expand in parts of New England. About 25 percent of  both Maine and New Hampshire is abnormally dry. 

For the first time this year, a tiny sliver of Vermont is now "abnormally dry" according to the newest U.S. Drought Monitor released yesterday. 

That "abnormally dry" area encompasses just 0.72 percent of Vermont. It's just a tiny area around White River Junction.  At the start of summer, in June, about half of the Green Mountain State was abnormally dry, but that quickly went down to zero with our exceptionally wet summer. 

Just a teeny, tiny sliver of Vermont (in yellow) is now
considered "abnormally dry" by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Rainfall for the year overall is still ahead of average. As of Thursday, Burlington has still had 2.58 inches more rain than usual for the year up to this point. Montpelier is running about 3.5 inches ahead of normal for the year so far.   

With a continued lack of rain in the forecast for the next few days, I think next week's U.S. Drought Monitor will expand the "abnormally dry" category in Vermont, we'll wait and see on that. 

Under the "abnormally dry" category, lawns start to turn brown, gardens wilt and the fire danger becomes elevated. 

Already, the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says the southern half of Vermont has a high fire risk.  The rest of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom has a moderate fire risk. 

I'd be careful with those late season camp fires. 

We might actually get a sprinkle in one or two spots today and Saturday, but that won't amount to anything. The vast majority of us will stay dry. 

There are signs of a change in the weather pattern that would bring somewhat wetter conditions to Vermont starting the middle of next week. So far at least, I'm not super impressed by how much rain those models are indicating. 

But it's a long way off, so I can't really say whether we'll get a good soaker in about a week, or just more spritzes and sprinklers. 

More Vermont Fire Risk Before Wintry Blast, Hard Freeze, Then Spring

Lots of wannabe lilac blooms on my big lilac
shrub in front of my St. Albans, Vermont house. 
Crossing my fingers they will survive 
Wednesday night's expected hard freeze.

 You can certainly tell at dawn this morning where the first stirrings of a warming south wind had started and where it was still calm and cold.  

It was in the low 40s in the Champlain Valley where a steady south wind was already blowing, but in the mid-20s elsewhere in Vermont after a clear, calm night. 

Those south winds will increase areawide today, giving us a quick squirt of warm air before winter unfortunately returns for a brief visit. 

The air is still really dry and is expected to stay that way all day. Winds gusting to 30 mph continues the fire danger that started yesterday.  

Yes, it's muddy underfoot still, and there's vernal pools in the woods. But the dead grass and leaves from last autumn have dried out in the sun. That's what can catch fire. Those fires can spread fast in today's winds. 

So, for the second day in a row, the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has us in a high fire danger for the day. 

WINTER

The kind of respite from this brief period of fire risk is not the kind we want. 

Rain will break out overnight, then change to snow - yes, snow - during the afternoon Wednesday. That's normally the warmest time of day this time of year, when temperatures should be approaching 60 degrees.

Not on Wednesday! Temperatures in the 40s will crash through the 30s in the afternoon.  Snow will accumulate even in many of the valleys. Not much, though. Perhaps a dusting to an inch.  But it's still harsh. 

That's not the real problem this time of year. It's the temperatures. 

These lilac buds died and failed to bloom after
this harsh winter storm and freeze in April, 2021
Not nearly as much snow as that episode is expected
with the upcoming freeze, but temperatures will
fall far into the 20s by Thursday morning.
Coldest hollows will be in the upper teens. 

They'll go below freezing in the late afternoon and evening and stay subfreezing into Thursday morning.

 Skies will quickly clear and winds will die down overnight. That means lows by Thursday morning ranging from around 18 in the cold spots to maybe 30 degrees right next to Lake Champlain.

That puts most of us in the 22 to 27 degree range. 

That's similar to the horribly damaging freeze of last May 18. Thankfully, plants and trees aren't nearly as far along now as they were last May. 

Trees haven't leafed out.  Fruit trees aren't flowering yet. So damage this time will be much less.  Those orchards are budding for sure, but fingers crossed I think most (but perhaps not all) of those buds should make it through this cold snap. 

Vineyards are probably relatively safe, too.

Because it is before the official growing season, there won't be any freeze warnings in Vermont with this. We should be glad this frigid episode isn't happening a couple weeks later than it is.

Still, this might be a disheartening spell for gardeners, like me. If your magnolia tree is blooming and those blooms survived this morning's freeze, enjoy them today. Those blooms will be brown wreckage by Thursday. 

It'll be interesting to see how hardier early plants do. My lilacs have tons of flower buds, more than in most years, so I was looking forward to a huge lilac season.  

I do worry this will be like 2021, when my lilac buds ended up failing to flower after dying in a harsh snowstorm and deep freeze. We shall see, but I'm not super optimistic. 

This is turning out to be yet another spring in which plants outside start to bud and blossom too early because of oddly warm weather. Then a harsh freeze threatens them. It's become a depressing spring pattern. With this frigid spell, it will be the fifth year in a row it's happened, with varying degrees of damage. Mostly relatively minor, except for last year. 

It's the new, changed climate.  It's generally warmer than it used to be, so spring advances earlier than it once did. But the new climate is also more extreme, so we get these brief blasts of winter air to cause potential damage. 

SPRING 

These spring cold blasts are always very brief, and this one will be no exception. Thursday will be cold for the season, with highs in the 40s, and another nasty frost/freeze is likely Thursday night. Though it won't be as cold as the night before.

By Friday afternoon, we'll be well into the 50s, Saturday will see highs passing 60 degrees and we could get into the low 70s by Sunday or Monday.  

Some Changes To Roller Coaster, Sometimes Wintry Vermont Week Forecast

That looks like perlite in my St. Albans, Vermont perennial
gardens, this morning, you know, the white pellets
that you see in potting mix. But it's snow pellets that
fell when a cold front passed through overnight. 
Wintry periods are in the forecast this week. 

 Right on schedule, the second of three "bowling ball" shots of cold spring air rolled into Vermont around midnight. It was accompanied by a whoosh of wind, gusting to 40 mph or so, and a few showers of graupel.  

(Graupel is sort of a combination snow and glorified small hail).

Skies cleared behind the front super fast, and it was clear by the time we woke up this morning. It's cold for the season this morning, but not wildly so. It's around 30 to 32, with mid 20s once you get up to 1,000 feet above sea level or so

FIRE RISK TODAY?

The air arriving today is super dry.  The humidity this afternoon will be in the 20 to 25 percent range, which is very low. The sun will be out and winds will gust to at least 25 mph from the northwest.

This is a recipe for fire weather. As noted in a post last week, these bursts of low humidity and wind dry out things super fast. That dead brush from last year can easily catch fire and the winds would spread it quickly. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has all of Vermont in a high fire danger today.

So: No burning your brush pile, no flicking your cigarette butts out your car window and no playing with fire in your backyard today, please. 

It'll also be cool for the season with highs in the 40s to around 50 in the warmer valleys. Another freeze comes tonight.

TUESDAY

Much warmer ahead of our next bowling ball of cold air. Clouds will increase slowly during the day. Winds will turn gusty from the south. I think there will be another relatively high fire risk during the day. Humidity will be a little higher than today, but those gusty south winds would spread any fire that does start pretty effectively. 

Spring will return by afternoon - briefly - as we get into the 60s.

WEDNESDAY WINTER

We'll start off rainy on Wednesday but cold front - another bowling ball of chilly air - will blast in during the afternoon. It's going to be a crappy Wednesday afternoon to say the least. As temperatures crash downward through the 40s and into the 30s, rain will change to snow. 

The only good news is that the American computer model that I mentioned yesterday has backed away from the idea that it had about us getting several hours of heavy, wet snow.

Instead, dry air will sweep in, ending the snow for the most part in the evening. 

I am somewhat worried about how cold it will get Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Temperatures will fall well into the 20s, with low 20s fairly common in northern Vermont. A few cold hollows could hit the upper teens. 

So, you magnolia blooms will certainly be toast.  If any fruit trees are blooming early, they're in trouble. Luckily, most are budding so that will minimize the damage. Unlike last May when a killing freeze hit orchards while trees were in full bloom. 

Some garden perennials could get damaged, too, we shall see. Most I think will make it through OK.  

THURSDAY AND BEYOND 

We'll shake our brief excursion back to winter. Thursday will be a sunny, dry, chilly day, much like today. Thursday night will bring us another freeze, but probably not one as intense as Wednesday night's.

After that, regularly scheduled springtime will return. We just have to get through this weird weather week. 

Showers - rain showers to reassure you - might return by next Sunday.  We could even see some temperatures in the low 70s a week or so from now, too. 

Changeable Week In Vermont: Early Snow, Fire Risk, Showers, Temperature Swings

It's ba-a-ack! A little dusting of snow on my St. Albans, 
Vermont deck this morning. Despite that bit of overnight
moisture, strong winds and dry air will create a fire
hazard today in Vermont/New England. 

 On Mondays, I like to set the tone for the week.  

However, here in Vermont, there's no tone today, at least in the weather forecasting department. Expect a little of everything. 

Showers yesterday and last evening didn't amount to all that much.  It got abruptly colder overnight, and that four-letter "S" word made a reappearance. 

here was a dusting of it on my decks early this morning before it quickly, mercifully melted away. 

Despite the light showers and those flakes of snow, there's a fire weather hazard today, believe it or not. 

Like I said, it didn't rain much, so what moisture there is will quickly disappear off last year's old, dead stuff out in the fields and forests. Despite the spring green up, last year's dry stuff is still there, noticeable and ready to catch fire given the right conditions. , 

Dry, gusty winds were already blowing as dawn broke today, and those winds were bringing in some arid air.

The combination of low humidity this afternoon - at or below 20 percent - and winds gusting as high as 35 mph will make the risk of hard to control brush fires pretty high this afternoon in much of New England.  

There's a red flag warning in effect today for the southern half of New Hampshire and southwestern Maine. The warning is an alert for high fire risk. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington went with a special weather statement for all of Vermont noting the worries about brush fires today.  "If any fires were to start, the weather and fuel conditions could cause the fires to quickly get out of control and be difficult to contain," the special weather statement says. 

Today is NOT the day to get rid of that brush pile in your yard with a fire.  I doubt many town fire wardens would be issuing burn permits today, anyway.

Fire weather concerns will probably continue tomorrow, but at least it won't be as windy then. 

Of course, we still need the rain and it looks like some is on the way later this week. How much rain is an open question.

The forecast for later in the week has changed from some of the ones I saw late last week. Rather than a strong ridge of high pressure giving us very warm and dry conditions, the ridge is weak and weather fronts will be draped over Vermont, or at least nearby Tuesday night into Friday.  

Weather disturbances will be moving along and through these fronts, so the combination makes us ripe for showers. Timing and intensity of the showers is a big question mark. For now, expect just a general risk of on and off rain from midweek on.

It'll start off kind of mild Wednesday and Thursday, and then get nippy again by Friday and especially Saturday.  Nothing bone chilling, but by Saturday, the expected high temperatures in the low 50s are about ten degrees cooler than average.

It's later in the spring now, so cool spells are losing their intensity, thank goodness.  There's a huge difference between the beginning of April and the end of the month. 

Very Strange: Part Of North Dakota Under Fire Alert - In February!

A very rare winter red flag warning for rangeland fire risk
today in southwestern North Dakota. 

 When a lot of us think of North Dakota in February, we picture scenes from the movie "Fargo." 

You know, a winter wasteland of blowing, drifting, frigid snow.   Parts of North Dakota are currently breaking that stereotype, though. 

It's true that North Dakota has had bouts of frigid weather this winter, as usual. But in the western part of the state, it's super, super dry. 

For instance, Williston, North Dakota has had only. 0.77 since November 1 - nearly four months.  

Since there's been no precipitation, there's no snow cover out in western North Dakota like there usually is this time of year. 

Most of western and central North Dakota is considered to be in severe drought. 

The result: A rare red flag warning for the risk of wildfires today in southwestern North Dakota.  Strong, gusty and very dry southwesterly winds today are being blamed for the rangeland fire risk. It is just odd to see this happening in part of the nation's ice box in February. 

Even though no particular fire warnings are up elsewhere, other parts of the Dakotas are under some risk of fires today due to a lack of snow cover. This risk exists as far away as Yankton, in southeastern South Dakota. 

It's normally quite dry in western North Dakota during the winter.  Most winter months only see a half inch of rain or melted snow per month during the cold season. But since it's even drier than normal, they're getting this strange fire risk.