Western Drought Creates Weird New Hazard: Lake Powell Quicksand

A person in the danger zone around quicksand on the 
shores of Lake Powell on the Utah/Arizona border

 The lake level in drought-stricken Lake Powell has dropped so low that it has left behind a weird danger: Quicksand. 

Actually, there's alway has been quicksand around Lake Powell, which straddles the Utah/Arizona border.

But now it's everywhere it seems, due to the crashing lake level from drought. 

Sediment flows into Lake Powell and collects as a wet sand near the bottom or on rock shelves on or above the lakebed.  These sediment areas are now above water and in many instances have taken the form of  quicksand along shorelines and drainages in Lake Powell. 

The lake is part of the popular Glen Canyon National Recreation Area. 

All those old time movies or cartoons depicting quicksand is something that pulls people in until they're buried and dead and gone forever is a myth. Someone who get stuck in quicksand typically stop sinking once they're in waist deep. 

But it can still trap people, and can be dangerous if they're alone and can't get out of it. If a person is alone and can't get out, they'll likely die of hypothermia if help doesn't arrive. 

But once you're in that far, it's incredibly hard to get out. To pull one leg requires the amount of force need to lift a small car, notes Livescience.com

The more you move around, the more you'll sink. A disturbance such as a person entering quicksand will liquify it. "The wet sand sediment becomes so densely packed that it's harder to move than cold molasses. Once the victim's foot becomes stuck in it, the situation is dire," notes Livescience.com

You're left with the densely packed sand keeps you in place with water on top. 

After some experiments with quicksand, experts have devised a way for people to get out of quicksand. Remember this if you're ever tempted to try the Lake Powell quicksand experience.  

 Livescience.com  tells us: 

"Stay calm and eventually, you'll float Stretch out on your back to increase hour surface area and wait until your legs pop free," At this point, moving your legs around at this point to stir in water, and that will help you float.

Of course, people panic, so it's always best to have somebody with you who could seek help. 

So far, I haven't heard of anybody getting into serious, life-threatening trouble with the quicksand. But Lake Powell is getting busier. Spring breakers have invaded the area and the summer tourism season is right around the corner, 

The National Park Service suggests hikers stay close to canyon walls and hike with a buddy. People should check suspicious ground with a walking stick to test the area.

The quicksand will appear as wet, loose, or unusually smooth ground, or unexpected water seepage or pooling, vibrating soil, surfaces that look soft or spongy, NPS spokesperson Heidi Grigg said. 

If you see something like that, it's best to go around it. Preferably on hard rocks. 

OTHER LOW WATER ISSUES

Lake Powell's low water levels is having another impact on summer recreation: The lake is so low, and thus so much smaller, that there's not as much room to launch boats.  That means long lines and a lot more time spent getting boats in and out of the water.

Obviously, the western drought and Lake Powell's troubles aren't limited to isolated quicksand crises or boating inconveniences 

Water managers' goals is to keep the lake level in Powelll to at least 3,525 feet above sea leave. If it gets to 3,490 feet, Glen Canyon Dam, which holds back Lake Powell, can no longer generate any electricity. 

That means utilities will need to turn to more expensive and often more polluting sources to generate electricity. 

The quicksand, the boats, the electricity generation is just the edges of the deep crisis developing in the Southwest. Drought had already been established for years. Then mountain snowpack was the worst on record in many areas, thanks to the warmest winter in the West on record. 

Then, this month, by far the most intense, record shattering March heat wave ever seen settled in for a long visit in the Southwest. This prematurely melted whatever paltry mountain snow pack there was, and further dried out the region much more than anybody anticipated for so early in the season. 

You're going to see a lot of posts this year in this here blog thingy about western drought, western water shortened, western wildfires, and all sorts of big time problems associated with a climate-changed, hot, dry landscape. 

Video: 

Experienced hikers encounter quicksand at Lake Powell.  They knew how to get out of the situation  and you can see them do so in the vid. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that:

 

 

 

Worldwide Robust Weather Warnings Would Save Lives

People in the U.S. have easy access to warnings for
dangerous storms, like this weather radio. Many 
places around the world don't have access to
weather warnings, causing needless deaths. 
The UN and other organizations are 
trying to change that. 

 The United States has a lot of the worst weather in the world. Every time you turn around, there's a life-threatening flash flood, tornado, giant hail, hurricane, winter storm, wildfire and storm surge. 

Or, seemingly, all of the above at once. 

Some recent deadly disasters notwithstanding, the United States has some of the lower per capita fatality rates in the world. A lot of the reason for that is our robust warning system.

It's why you see on the news that an entire town has been turned into grim confetti by a tornado, but maybe only one or two residents have died, and everybody else is basically uninjured. 

The reason is because everybody in town got a tornado warning 15 minutes or even a half hour before the storm hit. That warning bought everybody in town time to hunker down in a safer place.  

Many other places in the world don't have the luxury, or actually the necessity of have a robust warning system for severe weather.

Much of the time, the overseas death toll in storms and floods is victims didn't have the information needed to get out of the way of an  impending disaster.

  .As NPR notes:

"One reason for the high death tolls in such disasters is a lack of basic weather warning systems. 

'Early warnings are not an abstraction,' said U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a speech last year. 'They give farmers the power to protect their crops and livestock, enable families to evacuate safely and protect entire communities from devastation."

Too many people lack access to weather warnings. 

As Al Jazeera reported in October:

"Nearly half of all countries lack early-warning systems for extreme weather events, leaving millions - especially those in developing nations - vulnerable".

The World Meteorological Organization has said that weather, water and climate-related hazards have killed more than 2 million people in the past 50 years. About 90 percent of those deaths occurred in developing countries. 

As climate change drives storms to new extremes adequate weather warnings are more important than ever. 

TRYING TO HELP

Back in 2022, the United Nations set a goal to extend severe weather warmings to even person on Earth by 2027. The effort would cost $3.1 billion. 

It doesn't look like the UN will reach that goal in time. It never does. But at least the effort is underway. 

One major reason the effort is behind schedule is,  of course, the United States.  Namely, Donald Trump. I swear it seems like the more needless deaths he causes, or at least fails to prevent, the happier he is.  The Trump administration said last month it will no longer participate in the effort. That erases some billions of dollars from the weather warning plan.

Other sources are stepping up to the plate, including thy Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, which have together spend $2.5 billion on weather warning projects, NPR reports. 

 The number of nations using some form of early warning systems for multiple types of severe weather has jumped from 52 to at least 108 over the past decade. However there are still dozens of nations that still don't have any kind of sophisticated warning system for people at risk for storms and floods. 

One success story appears to be Cambodia, notes NPR.

Cambodia is one of the most flood-prone countries in the world. Between 2023 and 2025, agencies affiliated with the UN upgraded the country's flood forecasts and warnings to the tune of $5.8 million. An additional $7.8 million will be spent on this Cambodian warning system over the next few years.

Last November, the water level in the Mekong River in Cambodia reached one its highest levels on record. In the past, this type of flood would kill many people. This time, the people, and their livestock were gone by the time the water started rising. They'd received flood warnings, and were on high ground when the Mekong went over its banks. 

Since they'd made preparations, people living along the Mekong pretty much resumed normal life shortly after the water receded. 

Much of Cambodia's new warning system is pretty basic. Warnings go out on cell phones. But since many people don't have phones, trucks drive back and forth through towns, blaring the warnings from speakers. The speaker also instruct residents to tell anyone else who might not have heard the broadcast about the problem .

The November, 2025 Mekong flood led only to a few casualties.

We in the United States take for granted weather warnings. Sometimes, we even have waves of complaints when tornadoes warnings pre-empt the season finale of "Real Housewives Of Enosburgh Falls" or whatever dumb show is on. 

But the U.S. warning system has saved countless lives. Lives in other countries are worth the same as ours, whether you like that fact or not. So I really don't want to hear that weather warnings as dangerous storms appear are just "too expensive" to deal with 

 

Trump To U.S And World Citizens: Drop Dead. Fossil Fuel Billionaires MUST Be Protected

EPA is dropping a 17-year old "endangerment finding"
that forms the basis of fossil fuel regulations in
the United States. Ultimately, it's a stupid and
dangerous move.

The Trump administration on Thursday got rid of a key Environmental Protection Agency rule that forms the basis for virtually all federal regulations related to climate change. 

The change won't just affect the Trump administration. His move will make it harder for future administrations to adopt climate rules and regs. I've seen getting rid of the so-called EPA "endangerment finding" described as removing a load bearing pillar of climate regulations.

Per the Washington Post:

"Nearly 17 years after the the Environment Protection Agency declared that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases threaten the public's health and welfare, the agency on Thursday rescinded the landmark legal opinion underpinning a wave of federal policies aimed at climate change. 

The agency issued its 'endangerment finding' in 2009, concluding that the government had a sound legal basis to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. In scrapping the policy this week, the EPA will seek to erase limits on emissions from cars power plants, and other industries that release the vast majority of the nations planet-warming pollution".

Trump has repeated declared change a hoax, most likely because it would help fossil fuel oligarchs, who in turn will feel obligated to help him.

"This is a big deal," EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said Thursday, which is the only thing I would agree with him on in this saga. 

At first, the main effect today's actions will have is to get rid of greenhouse emission standards on trucks and cars. 

But if the end of the endangerment finding holds up in court, no future EPA will be able to regulate CO2 emissions,  noted the Washington Post article. 

Environmental groups are up in arms, as you might imagine. 

One of the more succinct explanations of the ultimate result of what happened today came from Dan Becker, director of the Center for Biological and Diversity's Safe Climate Transport Campaign: 

"American families will suffer long-term harms so that giant auto and oil companies can pocket short-term profits."

Alex Witt of Climate Power was even more blunt: "This decision makes it abundantly clear that Trump is willing to make our families sicker and less safe, all to benefit a few billionaire polluters"

 For his part, Zeldin, the EPA administrator sarcastically called the 17-year old rule he's trying to get rid of the "holy grail of the climate change religion.' 

This decision will cost lives as it will hinder the worldwide battle against climate change. But then, the Trump administration thinks little of lives of people like you and me. 

Trump's administration has cut back on the National Weather Service's ability to forecast and monitor the weather. This at a time when climate change is generally making dangerous weather more complex and harder to predict.  The NWS cutbacks would have been worse if not for rare bipartisan efforts to keep more meteorologists on the job

At the behest of Trump, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi "ICE Barbie" Noem, who also controls the Federal Emergency Management Agency, is doggedly working to cut back on FEMA disaster aid. So when those storms -  often climate related - hit, you're on your own if your house washed or blew away. 

 We haven't heard the last of this issue, though. I guarantee lawsuits that would attempt to restore the endangerment finding. It will probably make its way all the way up to the Supreme Court. The court is staked with Trump stooges, though, so despite an expected long battle, I'm not super optimistic here.

"This is going to be an ongoing struggle between rule of law and a corrupt fossil fuel industry that wants to be unbridled," said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, (D-RI). 

Rogue Private Companies Trying To Stop Climate Change In Potentially Dangerous, Risky Ways

A company called Make Sunsets wants to pump 
sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to blunt
climate change. Sounds good, but a lot 
can go wrong with this idea. 

You can combat climate change, at least a little, for just $1.00.  The problem is, that $1 to fight climate change might backfire enough to make climate change seem like a trifle. 

The dollar would go to a private company called Make Sunsets. As the Washington Post explains:

"Your dollar will pay for founder Luke Iseman to drive a Winnebago RV into the hills half an hour outside Saratoga, California, to release a balloon loaded with sulfur dioxide, an air pollutant normally spewed by volcanic eruptions. He and his 1,000 paying customers hope the balloon will burst in the stratosphere, releasing particles that will block sunlight and cool the planet."

Of course, just one of those little balloons won't have any effect on climate change. Make Sunsets has released just over 240 pounds of sulfur dioxide this year. You need to release millions of tons of that chemical every year to change global temperatures. 

For instance, in 1991, the Mount Pinatubo volcano erupted in what was easily among the biggest eruptions in a century. It released 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere.  

That eruption dropped global temperatures by about 1 degree Fahrenheit for nearly two years. But those cooler temperatures were still above the 20th century average. 

Still, as the WaPo points out, private businesses are diving into the idea of blocking the sun through chemicals. "Make Sunsets has raised more than $1 million from investors and sold more than $100,000 worth of 'cooling credits' to customers this fall. A better-funded competitor, Stardust, has raised $75 million to develop a more sophisticated geo engineering method it says will be ready to launch by the end of the decade- although its founders vow they won't deploy their technology unless a government hires them to do so." 

These companies are jumping in because they say scientists and governments are too slow and plodding with possible solutions to climate change. So they want to speed it up. Reading between the lines, these companies want to make a pile of money and fast.  

There is reason why these scientists and governments are so "slow and plodding." 

The technologies these companies are playing with could have really bad unintended consequences, like altering global weather patterns in ways that could be even more dangerous than climate change. These tech ideas could increase air pollution and cancer rates.

 Here'a a pertinent quote in that Washington Post piece:

"'I do not trust the private sector to make good decisions for people,' said Shuchi Galati, founder of the nonprofit Alliance for Just Deliberation on Solar Geoengineering. 'The whole move-fast-and-break-things ethos - I've see it and it hasn't gone particularly well for society."

Most governments don't have specific laws banning geoengineering. But remember those kinda wacky laws in some states, and a Marjorie Taylor Greene-sponsored piece of legislation that banned weather modification due to unfounded fears of chemtrails?  Those laws might just apply to these geoengineering firms. 

The Trump administration Environmental Protection Agency has already gone after Make Sunsets for the minuscule amount of sulfur dioxide the company has put into the air. Which is a bit rich, since the Trump people have rolled back regulations that were helping reduce fossil fuel emissions.  The most obvious way to fight climate change is getting rid of fossil fuel, but that would make the Trump people unhappy. So we can't have that. 

But even if every nation in the world enacted laws and regulations banning freelance methods of trying to blunt climate change, like pumping sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, that might not stop real trouble.  A few rogue  billionaires will probably try to get around nations' "stupid laws"  - possibly at humanity's expense. 

HOW IT GOES SOUTH

Luke Iseman, the founder of Make Sunsets, said he got the idea for his business from the science fiction novel "Termination Shock." The premise of the novel is that billionaires take it upon themselves to fight climate change. 

In the book, a Texas billionaire launches a geoengineering project that does save low lying areas from sea level rise, but also introduces a brutal, deadly drought elsewhere. Obviously, a lot more goes on that in the story, but the book's title refers to the concept that once a geoengineering project starts, abruptly stopping it later results in skyrocketing warming, which is called termination shock. 

Termination shock would have the world abruptly warm to the high levels you would have had if you didn't reduce fossil fuel usage, and never tried to block the sun with sulfur dioxide, or whatever you're trying to use to do that . 

Remember how within a couple years after Pinatubo blew up in 1991, climate change picked up where it left off? That was a couple years. The world without Pinatubo's sulfer dioxide wasn't that much warmer in 1993 than it was in 1990.  In the grand scheme of things, mankind didn't have to make many quick adjustments due to a new climate.

Now imagine if we cut off climate change today by spraying the stratosphere with sulfur dioxide and kept doing it until, say, 2060.  Suddenly, within a year, maybe 18 months after 2060, the world abruptly warms from something like we have now, which is bad enough, to something dangerously hotter. 

It's hard enough adapting to climate change at the pace it's going now. Imagine trying to deal with the sudden extreme heat, even more extreme storms and gawd knows what else if global temperature spikes incredibly sharply in a year or two. 

Then imagine the cascading food shortages, disasters and resulting civil unrest, mass migration and war this snap-of-the-fingers change might bring.  There's a recipe for a dystopian novel at best, an incredibly grim future at worst

The trouble with some (most?) billionaires is that they think they're the Enlightened Ones, who are smarter than everybody else. So they'll just do what they want because their narcissism makes them think they can save the world. Or at least add to their billions in cash they have piled up. 

 The minions the billionaires collect like dust bunnies under the sofa will do it.  (That's why Congress kowtows to the 1% so much nowadays. They want their take of the profits.

Here's the Washington Post quote from Iseman himself:

"If every country in the world bans this, and a billionaire comes to me and says, 'Here's a boat with a flag of convenience that's not going to enforce the ban...I want to take credit if people like it and have plausible deniability if they don't. Go. You know, I can think of no better way to spend the next several years."

The plausible deniability part of the quote really had my eyes rolling to the back of my head.  

What happens when the billionaire runs out of money, or more likely loses interest in the geoengineering project as fast as a dude with ADHD loses interest in any boring spreadsheet you put in front of him? . 

Billionaires almost never suffer the consequences of what they start. So when the climate really goes haywire when the said billionaire abandons his little sulfur dioxide scheme,   he'll be whisked to his safe private island, safe from the global chaos he's created. 

While the rest of us rubes pay the consequences.  

Fire And Frost Again In Vermont, Fire Risk To Last Longer

Leaves are coming off the trees, like these maples
near Richmond, Vermont on Tuesday. The leaf
litter is adding to the fire risk that the 
Vermont drought has created. 

Henry the Weather Dog, a native of Texas, didn't stay outside nearly as long as he usually does when he went outdoors early in the morning. 

He didn't like the temperatures near 40 degrees here in St. Albans, especially considering the chilly north breeze bringing wind chills into the 30s.  It doesn't bode well for winter, but we'll deal with it. 

Those chilly breezes are a sign that frost and a higher fire danger are back to harass us in Vermont. 

FIRE DANGER

The strongest breezes today will be in the Champlain Valley, due to the funneling effect of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks. Those gusts should go at at least 25 mph. The skies will stay clear, and the relative humidity will drop to around 30 percent. 

There are a lot more dried, dead leaves on the ground than there was in mid-September, so there's more fuel for any fire starts. The wind and low humidity will make any fires that start spread fast. 

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement alerting the public to the fire danger. 

The fire danger is very high today in
western Vermont and the lower 
Connecticut River valley, and
high elsewhere in the state today.

The fire danger is high all over Vermont, of course, but the states's Forests, Parks and Recreation department lists the danger as very high west of the Green Mountains and in the lower Connecticut River valley and high elsewhere.  

The risk of fires will keep going at least through Monday, as sunny skies and dry air will continue through the weekend. 

Winds will be lighter, so fires that start might not spread as quickly as it would if it stayed windy. But you'll surely see reports of new brush fires here and there in and near Vermont. 

You'll need to be especially careful with fire for the foreseeable future.

FROST RISK AGAIN

As mentioned it was chilly this morning.  Most of us got down well into the 30s, with some temperatures near 40 near Lake Champlain. 

It won't warm up all that much this afternoon.  It's the first day of October, and fittingly, it'll be a classic autumn day. That breeze will add to the crispness of the air. 

High temperatures will only reach the 50s with maybe a few low 60s in southern Vermont valleys. That'll be the chilliest day of the year so far, which isn't saying much. It's been warm lately, so today's weather seems cold. But the expected highs today aren't at all odd for the beginning of October.  (I'll have a complete climate summary for September in a post later today).  

Today's brisk weather will set us up for a frosty night. A frost advisory is in effect for all of Vermont overnight and early Thursday except for Grand Isle County and the Northeast Kingdom. 

The lack of any frost of freeze alerts in the Northeast Kingdom is because the growing season is considering over up that way, so there's no need for such alerts

A warming trend will start tomorrow, but it will still be a little cool, with highs in the 58 to 65 degree rage

But that warming trend means business. By Sunday and Monday, warmer valleys could reach 80 degrees. That will bring us close to record highs for this time of year. 

There's a chance of showers in about a week from now, but whatever comes along won't be impressive and won't solve the drought. It will also probably turn much colder again in about a week. Summer is over, after all. 

Loyalty To Trump, Um, Trumps Public Safety At FEMA

 Loyalty to Donald Trump is more important than public safety.

At least that's the conclusion I reach as I watch the ongoing trouble at the Federal Emergency Management Agency. 

Per the Washington Post:

"The Trump administration placed more than 30 Federal Emergency Management Agency employees on leave Tuesday after they signed an open letter of dissent about the agency's leadership, according to people familiar with the situation and documents reviewed by the Washington Post. 

About 180 current and former FEMA staffers sent a letter on Monday to members of Congress and other officials, arguing the current leaders' inexperience and approach harm FEMA's mission and could result in a disaster on the level of Hurricane Katrina. About three dozen people had signed their names the majority of signatories were anonymous."

Pretty much the same thing happened to nearly 140 employees at the federal Environmental Protection Agency when they sent their dissent letter. Employees at the National Institutes of Health also released a dissent letter. 

It's more than a little disconcerting that so many government experts are expressing such distrust of the Trump regime, but there you go. 

The FEMA dissent letter included concern over the lack of a Senate-confirmed and qualified emergency manager to lead FEMA; cuts to mitigation, disaster recovery, training and community programs, and new policies the limit employee autonomy, as the Washington Post reports. 

The letter also asked Congress to protect FEMA from interference from the Department of Homeland Security and protect the employees from "politically motivated firings."

A lot of good that did, huh?

 Trump FEMA had their typical response to the FEMA situation. "It is not surprising that some of the same bureaucrats who president over decades of inefficiency are now objecting to reform....Our obligation is to survivors, not to protecting broken systems," a FEMA spokesperson sniffed. 

The leave notices given to employees stated there are "not a disciplinary action and is not intended to be punitive."

Riiiiggght. 

It's the peak of hurricane season. So far, we've been lucky. No full-blown hurricane has crashed onto United States shores so far this year. Hurricanes are arguably the worst mega-disasters we can experience in the U.S., and the most challenging to prepare, endure and respond to. 

Just think about what Hurricane Helene did last year if you want an example. 

It could also be just a matter of time before one of the many wildfires burning in the western U.S. get really out of control and crashes its way into a heavily populated area. 

I'm not convinced FEMA is up to the task under the current leadership.  

Feds Arrests Firefighters Battling Washington State Wildfire As Immigration Crackdown Goes Wild

Federal law enforcement detains firefighters trying
to battle a Washington State wildfire. They
ended up arresting two of them. 

 The biggest wildfire now burning in Washington State is now short two firefighters for an infuriating reason.   

That reason is the Trump administration will go to any length to arrest and deport anyone they suspect of being in the country illegally. 

Even if it disrupts heroic battles against dangerous wildfires. .

Per the New Republic

"On Wednesday morning, two different crews of firefighters were cutting wood while waiting for their superior to arrive when Customs and Border Patrol agents showed up in 'Police' vests. The federal agents made the entire crew line up and show ID, eventually detaining the two firefighters without giving them a chance to say goodbye to their fellow crew members and loved ones."

The Seattle Times broke the story, which spurred a fair amount of outrage among residents and lawmakers from Washington.  

The Times spoke to multiple firefighters anonymously. They did so for the sad reason so many are resorting to that type of anonymity. In likely violation of the First Amendment, the Trump administration retaliates against anyone who doesn't praise the Orange God to the high heavens. 

A lot of things were unusual and alarming about this whole thing, not just the fear of retribution. For one, why were agents heading out to an active wildfire, in a remote location like Bear Gulch to make arrests?

One of the firefighters told the newspaper that members of the crew were told not to take video of the incident. To their credit and bravery, some took video and photos anyway. 

Video and photos supplied to the Seattle Times by the firefighters show them in their gear sitting on logs, with federal officers watching them. Also in these images, ".... a U.S. Customs and Border Protection vehicle is parked nearby. Officers wearing 'Police' vests are seen arresting a firefighter, while another appears to be restrained."

One firefighter was quoted:  'I asked them if his (family) can say goodbye to him because they're family, and they're just ripping them way,' another firefighter told the Times. 'And this is what he said: 'You need to get the (expletive) out of here. I'm gonna make you leave."

Government agencies were as vague as they usually are under the Trump administration when it came to explaining the arrests. 

According to The Guardian, the U.S. Border Patrol said it assisted the Bureau of Land Management after that agency asked for help after ending contracts with two companies following a criminal investigation. 

No information was provided on the details of that criminal investigation. Federal agents said they identified two people "present in the United States illegally," according to a Border Patrol statement. 

U.S. Sen. Patty Murray, D-Washington condemned the arrests at the wildfire site. "We count on our brave firefighters, who put their lives on the line, to keep our communities safe - this new Republican policy to detain firefighters on the job is as immoral as it is dangerous," she said. "What's next? Will Trump start detaining immigrant service members? Or will he just maintain his current policy of deporting Purple Heart veterans?"

Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, who also condemned the arrests,  posted on social media that one of the arrested firefighters was from Oregon, The man is represented by lawyers from the non-profit Innovation Law Lab, who said the firefighter was unlawfully detained, the Associated Press reported. 

True to form the U.S. government has "disappeared" the firefighter, at least for now. Lawyer from Innovation Law Lab can't find him even though he should be entitled to legal representation. "We demand that they allow him to access counsel as is his right afforded by the U.S. Constitution," lawyer Rodrigo Fernandez-Ortega said in an email

Good luck with that. The only part of the Constitution the Trump administration seems willing to obey is the Second, the one involving guns. 

The Bear Gulch Fire, as this blaze is called, has burned about 14 square miles in the Olympic National Forest. Oddly hot, dry weather in the region has allowed the fire to rage for days.  It was about 13 percent contained as of Thursday afternoon.

No thanks to the Trumpers as to whatever level of containment has been managed so far.   

Heat Is Now Here In Vermont, What To Know, How To Stay Safe

The heat wave is here.

Not just Vermont. All the areas in orange, red, 
purple, etc on this map are under various
heat advisories and warnings. Record high
temperatures are forecast in dozens of
U.S cities today, including here in Vermont.

It sort of began Sunday after those morning thunderstorms blew through.  It didn't quite make it to 90 degrees, but it was hot enough. With temperatures in the 80s and high humidity, the heat index flirted with 90 degrees.  

We'll get to the more extreme heat we've got coming. Stay with me in this post, because you'll see tips on why Vermonters  need to be careful with this extreme heat and what to do about it, 

But first a quick update on the Sunday morning storms.

Those storms might not have been as severe as feared in Vermont, as I wrote in yesterday's post. It turns out the most dangerous part of this system mostly bypassed Vermont and dove southward from Canada down through central and western New York.

It got pretty bad in central parts of the Empire State. A tornado along with extreme winds hit Oneida County, New York around 4:30 a.m, Sunday, killing three people. Oneida County is where cities like Rome and Utica are located.

The same storms set off severe flash flooding in the same county and surrounding areas. Now, people will start picking up the pieces today amid the extreme heat.  New York Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency in 32 counties due to the storms. 

VERMONT HEAT

If you were an early riser, I hope you weren't lulled by the muggy, but not terribly hot dawn today in Vermont. Temperatures then were in the 60s to around 70.

The truly hot air is now coming in.  The "heat dome" everyone is talking about will be upon us all day. That creates sinking air. That sinking air makes the already hot air heat it more. We should have no trouble reaching the 90s this afternoon in Vermont.

That'll be low 90s in somewhat higher elevation towns and perhaps upper 90s in parts of the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys.   

The accompanying high humidity will make today and tomorrow will send the heat index or "real feel" of the air to over 100 degrees in much of Vermont. These will likely the two most dangerously hot days Vermont has seen since July, 2018. 

THE DANGER

Being a northern state, Vermonters are especially susceptible to extreme heat. First of all, we're not acclimatized to it. Our bodies haven't adapted to big hot spells, as we haven't had much in the way of hot weather so far this year. 

And there's more:

According to the Vermont Department of Health:

"In recent years hot weather has affected the health of people living in Vermont more and more. These effects are expected to get worse as our climate continues to warm.  In cooler states like Vermont, most heat-related deaths occur inside homes without air conditioning.

This happened during the heat wave in Vermont in June (editor's note, actually early July) when four older adults died. Vermont has one of the lowest rates of access to home air conditioning in the country, putting many people at higher risk for heat-related illnesses. Unhoused people also suffer more in the heat when they cannot access air-conditioned shelters."

Heat waves are tending to become increasingly humid, which makes their dangers worse. When we overheat, we sweat. When the air is dry, that sweat evaporates, which has a cooling effect on our bodies. 

When it's humid, the sweat doesn't evaporate so readily, so we don't cool off so much. 

The higher humidity also keeps nighttime temperature from falling as much as when the air is less muggy.  These hotter nights don't give us a chance to recover from a torrid day.  You can see the trend in Burlington; The two days with the highest "low" temperature on record (80 degrees) were pretty recent. The first one was on July 2, 2018, the other was just last year, June 19, 2024. 

True to recent form, tonight will stay hot and muggy. The forecast "low" temperature tonight in Burlington is a stifling 77 degrees. 

The health effects of heat accumulate the longer the heat goes on, especially when it doesn't really get cool at night.  Which means in general, we'll be worse off tomorrow than we are today.

WHAT TO DO

Me soaking in a livestock watering tub on a hot evening
last summer. You gotta do anything you can to stay cool!
Photo by Jeff Modereger. 

You're going to want to drink a lot of water today and tomorrow. That will help keep your internal sweat factory at peak capacity, which is important. 

Start the day with a glass of water and keep going.If at all possible, get your butt into an air conditioned room. If only for a few hours. 

Avoid the booze and caffeinated beverages if possible. These drinks can actually dehydrate you.

Eat light and cold, things like salad and fruits. During heat waves, my husband and I in the evening like to fix what we call a "cold suppah" (that's how we pronounce it).  It usually consists of fresh salads, cold cuts, a baguette and cheeses.  The stove and oven stay off,

If at all possible, get your butt into an air conditioned room. If only for a few hours.  If you don't have air conditioning, find cool places.  Only one room of my house is air conditioned, so my husband and I often set up shop in our cool basements, setting up our laptops and TV down there so we can avoid the heat. 

Also, try taking cool showers and baths. They do help,  

Since we don't have a swimming pool at our house, we've gone so far as to set up a livestock water feeding tub on our back deck. I fill it with cool water and sit in it.  It's deep enough so when I do that, the refreshing water comes up to my neck. Ahhhhh. Feels good.  

In other words, do whatever it takes to stay cool.

Hey employers!  Don't be a hardass.  If your workers do most of their stuff outdoors, go easy on them  today and tomorrow. Exertion in this weather is extremely dangerous. Make sure the crew has  plenty of water and give them frequent breaks. What the hell, maybe even give them the day or the hottest part of the day off.  

If you do that, they'll survive to work for you another day, Plus, if you treat employees fairly, that's a great way to get loyalty and hard work from them in the future. It's a win/win for you and the employees.  

If you're worried about your elderly friends and relatives without air conditioning, you should be. Today and tomorrow are great days to "kidnap" them and haul them and yourself to an air conditioned movie matinee, restaurant, shopping center or museum.  

YOUR PETS

Whatever you do, keep your pets in a cool place. Do NOT leave them outside unattended for hours, or worse, all day. 

Our weather dog Henry will probably hang out in the basement with us today. 

Make sure they always have plenty of water. NEVER leave them in your car, not even for that so-called "minute" when you dash into a store to grab something. Cars turn into ovens almost immediately in this weather, 

Also, get into the habit of carefully checking the car, including back seat when you get out.  Did you leave pets or children back there? You sure? It's so easy to have a brain fart and forget. 

If you take your dog for a walk, avoid asphalt and concrete.  Those heat up ridiculously during hot spells, and will burn their paws. 

BEYOND TUESDAY

Luckily, this heat wave will be mercifully brief. Tuesday night will remain stuffy and uncomfortable, but there might be signs of relief toward morning. Wednesday afternoon will be much cooler, with highs in the low 80s. So better. The humidity levels will keep falling during the day Wednesday, too.

Dashcam Shows Intensity Of California Tornado

 The rare California tornado that struck the community Scotts Valley last Saturday was "only" and EF-1 with a brief path. Wind topped out at 90 mph, and it only traveled for about a third of a mile before dissipating. 

In a screen grab from a dash cam in a parked truck
in Scotts Valley, California last Saturday, a tornado
emerges from behind a 7-Eleven and in a couple
seconds, will flip the vehicle with the dash cam.

A dash cam video of that tornado which recently emerged shows the power and suction of even a modest tornado that pales in comparison to the monsters that sometimes roam the Great Plains and South. 

Television station KSBW aired footage from a dash cam in a truck parked in the Mt. Herman shopping center lot that was hit by the storm. The video is at the bottom of this post.

In the video, things initially don't seem so bad. There's increasing wind and rain, and some small branches zip by in the gusts. But soon enough a narrow but violent looking funnel appears from behind a 7-Eleven store

The debris-filled swirl hits the front of the truck, then goes over it, flipping it on its side, coming to rest against a white car parked next to it.  The funnel is so narrow that it didn't really hit the white car just a couple feet to the right. That white car stays pretty much where it was.   

The truck that contained the dash cam was totaled, said owner Myrl Wallace. 

This small tornado demonstrates graphically that it's always important to seek shelter in a sturdy building if you hear a tornado warning. Vehicles are not safe places in tornados. 

It doesn't look like anybody was in the truck with a dash cam. And in the Scotts Valley case, the twister formed so quickly there was no tornado warning. But you get the idea. 

To view the video, click on this link. Or, if you see the image below, click on the image below

Vermont Storm And Tornado Risk Is On For Today. What To Know

Here's a map you don't see every day. It's from NOAA's
Storm Prediction Center and has easily the nation's
most significant tornado risk centered over Vermont. 

You're going to want to be weather aware in Vermont, most of the rest of New England, much of New York and southern Quebec today, as danger lurks. 

The already well-advertised danger includes the high likelihood of severe thunderstorms and one of the highest tornado risks I've ever seen in Vermont. 

That's not to say the whole state will be leveled by twisters or even damaging thunderstorms winds. 

Not even close. But somebody is going to suffer the loss of trees, power lines, and possibly even roofs or weaker structures in the worst storms. 

There's no guarantee there will be a tornado in Vermont, but the chances are decent that at least a brief one might form if any supercell storms can get going without too much interference from neighboring storms 

Even if there's no tornadoes today, it's a day to keep watch.

HOW IT PLAYS OUT

The warm front which was sort of hung up in far southern Vermont yesterday was finally on the move north this morning.

It was unleashing lots of showers, with embedded heavy downpours and rumbles of thunder. I'm not at all worried about this early morning stuff. We won't have any severe storms with it. 

The warm front will - as long expected - stall out somewhere in southern Quebec.  You might get a false sense of security later this morning as the rain stops and the sun tries to break through. 

But that brighter but humid break in the weather helps set the stage for today's wild weather.  Storms will start to fire up by early afternoon, probably mostly in eastern New York then spreading into Vermont. 

If there's a lot of sun before this happens, that'll make things even worse as the sun's heat will increase instability. But even if we don't get much sun, the atmosphere is primed for severe weather. As of 8 a.m., I do see a fair amount of cleaning skies in central New York, heading our way. 

I don't think it's a question of if we'll see severe thunderstorms somewhere in Vermont today. It's only a matter of whether they'll be few and far between, or we get a ton of them, or something in the middle of that. 

That stalled warm front will help to veer the winds in the atmosphere, which could make some storms turn into rotating supercells.

There will probably actually be two types of storms around. One of them is those rotating supercells. They'll be somewhat isolated from one another and carry the risk of destructive winds, large hail and of course perhaps a tornado.

The other storms will be clusters or relatively short lines of storm, which will really be as dangerous as the supercells. The storm clusters are less likely to produce any spin ups, but they can contain very damaging straight line winds. 

As of very early this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center was still placing the best chances of a tornado in Vermont along and south of a line from Rutland to St. Johnsbury. Note that a tornado could also spin up anywhere else in the Green Mountain State.

Another map from the Storm Prediction Center this morning centers the greatest risk for tornadoes over central and northern Vermont except for the extreme Northeast Kingdom. 

The higher risk of tornadoes also extends through most of New Hampshire and western Massachusetts. 

This general forecast will get updated later this morning.

By the way, don't count on the Green Mountains to disrupt a wannabe tornado. That could happen, but then again, if the conditions are right, they're known to climb up and down hills. 

The threat from the big storms today will wane in the evening

WHAT TO DO

First of all, there's no need to panic over this. We're not used to tornado risk days, but they do happen occasionally.

All day today, try to stick to an area where you can quickly get into a sturdy building if a storm approaches. Today is NOT the day for a boat ride on Lake Champlain, or a nice hike in the Green Mountains. 

You might want to secure loose stuff like lawn furniture this morning and charge your devices, since I expect power outages. 

Always have with you a way to receive warnings. More than one source is best. If you have a weather radio, have that with you. Also tune into reliable sources of weather information, like the National Weather Service or our fine television meteorologists in the area.

Those meteorologists will probably cut into regular program if the tornado or very severe storm threat arises.

If you get a tornado warning, immediately grab your kids and pets and head to the basement. If you don't have a basement, try to get into a windowless place in the middle of the house or building you're in.  It doesn't hurt to put on sturdy shoes and a bicycle or motorcycle helmet for added protection.

Whatever you do, don't look for the tornado to see if it's really there and approaching. Chances are if it's there, it's hidden by trees or thick curtains of rain. New England tornadoes are often wrapped up in rain, and you don't see that familiar funnel shaped cloud common out in the Plains. 

Some of today's severe storms, even if they don't include tornadoes, will be stronger than the usual gusty ones we see in the summer.  If you receive a severe thunderstorm warning, it's still not a bad idea   to get in the basement, as if it were a tornado.  At the very least, stay away from the windows and be in a sturdy building. 

There's probably going to be a lot of cloud to ground lightning with these storms, so be careful with that.  There's the risk of localized flash flooding if the downpours are intense. That could be especially true near the Canadian border, where the heaviest rain from the warm front probably fell this morning.  

After the storm, look out for live wires.  If there's debris, be careful around that. Maybe wear work boots, too, since there could be sharp objects like nails and such in the mess. If you need to use a chain saw to clear fallen branches and trees, be careful, know what you're doing and don't be under the influence. 

Definitely stay out of any houses or buildings that have a lot of damage, say if a large tree fell on it or something like that. 

Many storm injuries aren't caused by the storm itself, but injuries during the cleanup after it. 

To the best of my knowledge, nobody has ever died in a tornado in Vermont. I sincerely doubt will end that great record today, but we still want to be alert to any dangers coming our way today. 

Aesthetics Matter More Than Safety/Staying Alive During Summer Heat Waves, Say Some Building Managers

Window air conditioners like this one on my house aren't
exactly pretty, but they can be life saving to some during
intense heat waves. Residents, lawmakers in various
parts of the nation are rebelling against landlord
issued window air conditioning bans. 

As we move into the hot months of summer,  I'm seeing a smattering of reports around the nation of apartment building managers bent on making their tenants broil in dangerous heat.  

The reason: The buildings need to look pretty, even if it means some people die of heat stroke or something. 

This involves apartment buildings or rental houses without central air. People in those cases resort to window mounted air conditions to get them through heat waves. 

In addition to aesthetics, building managers cite supposed safety issues. As if there were a sudden epidemic of air conditioners falling from windows, kind of like the constant rain of Acme-brand anvils smashing down on Wily E. Coyote.  

Examples are cropping up everywhere. In torrid San Antonio, residents of a mobile home park were told they can no longer have air conditioners in their windows.  Not sure what the residents are supposed to do when the Texas summer sun hits those tin can homes, but whatever. 

In equally hot Denton, Texas, a 600 unit mobile home park also banned window air conditioners. Central air is allowed, but many residents can't afford that. 

In South Portland, Maine, managers of an apartment building this spring abruptly told residents that window air conditioners are now banned, says television station WGME.

This particular apartment building tends to heat up big time in the summer. One resident said on a recent day when temperatures outdoors were in the low 60s, the temperature in their apartment reached 81 degrees.

Residents were told that window air conditioners are a safety and liability worry. "Why are they all of a sudden worried now, when there's never been an accident where one fell out," resident Anthony Nizza said. 

People who live in the apartment block can use portable air conditioners but they are much expensive to operate and not as effective as window units. One resident said the cost of operating a portable unit is twice that of a window air conditioner. 

Following complaints, operators of the South Portland apartment building will allow window units this summer only if brackets are installed.  Next year, no window units.

Some states and municipalities are fighting back. 

After an extreme, deadly heat wave in 2021, Oregon legislators passed a law ordering landlords to allow window air conditioners. 

Lawmakers too action after residents complained that landlords weren't allowing air conditioners as temperatures inside homes reached a dangerous 100 degrees. 

There are loopholes in the Oregon law. . Landlords could claim the air conditioners are overloading the building electrical system. Or they could be banned from historic buildings.

Same issue seems to be brewing in Spokane, Washington. There, the City Council is considering an ordinance that would forbid landlords from banning tenants from installing air conditioning in Spokane rental at any time when the National Weather Service issues a heat alert. 

It has happened. The Seattle Times reports that the nonprofit Spokane Neighborhood Action Partners have ordered the removal of air conditioning units in one apartment complex due to liability worries. 

Even if the ordinance is enacted, landlords would surely find loopholes. For instance, a common lease provision bars tenants from altering a rental unit without permission. Or do things that make the landlord pay an increased electricity bill. Those rules could effectively ban window air conditioners. 

I get it. Window air conditioners aren't necessarily the prettiest things in the world. But as heat waves worsen and lengthy under the strength of climate change, these ugly little boxes will more often become lifesaving devices. 

 

Remnants Of California Storm To Give Vermont/New England Big Thaw, Ice Safety Issues Record Highs Possible

The already scant snow cover on my St. Albans, Vermont
property will take another hit as possibly record 
high temperatures move in for the coming few days.

 

UPDATE: 

The warmth over-performed in the Champlain Valley today as the high in Burlington got up to 50 degrees.

That's just one degree shy of the record of 51 degrees set in 1925.

Sunshine was able to warm the ground due to an unseasonable lack of snow cover, which contributed to the balmy day.

The warm sunshine and light winds allowed me to work out in my yard clearing brush for a couple hours while clad in a t-shirt, but no jacket or sweat shirt or hoodie.

What I wrote this morning still holds, but I will provide an update on this "heat wave" in a post I will release Friday morning. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The hangover from California's immense storm continues as more hillsides gave way under the onslaught of lingering downpours on Wednesday. 

The death toll has risen to nine, but the storm is finally moving on to other parts of the United States, giving California a break. 

The storm won't cause nearly the effects as it did in California, but it will cause snow in the northern Plains. It's also creating a low, but not zero chance of a tornado or two in northern Illinois today. That's awfully far north for any kind of twister threat for so early in the season.

For us, the former California storm will bring us another big thaw, and possibly record high temperature.

It starts today with readings in many parts of Vermont in the low to mid 40s, compared to normal highs roughly in the 25 to 30 degree range. 

 Depending upon how things go, we might see some record highs by Friday or Saturday. 

I'm rating the chances of record highs Friday as low, as it would have to get to 53 in Burlington, 49 in Montpelier and 48 in St. Johnsbury to tie the record for the date.  Temperatures could get close to those temperatures Friday afternoon. 

The record high could easily fall on Saturday in Burlington due to a quirk. For some reason, Saturday has the lowest record high of any date of the year, 46 set in 2001. Most record highs this time of year are in the low to mid 50s. 

The forecast high on Saturday in Burlington is 51 degrees.  We might see a little rain especially later Saturday, but nothing heavy. 

This new thaw is going to create more ice safety issues for people who are into ice fishing or skating or walking on ponds and lakes. 

It's been yet another warm winter, so much like last year, ice isn't particularly thick on any pond or lake in Vermont. Lake Champlain is mostly open, though ice covers bays and protected areas. 

That's in large part to another round of very warm nights.  Reading in the Champlain Valley are expected to rise above freezing this morning and stay above 32 degrees until Sunday night. 

South winds are also forecast to pick up today through Saturday. That could cause ice that you think is safe on Lake Champlain to break off and float away.  

Ice fishing is not recommended. Sadly, the annual Islands Ice Fishing Derby that had been scheduled for this upcoming weekend has been canceled due to thin ice and the expected thaw. 

This is the second year in a row that ice fishing derby had to be canceled.  It was abruptly called off last February, too, due to unsafe ice. 

That bad ice can be deadly. Last February, three people died after falling through thawing Lake Champlain ice while fishing. 

Even if it does get below freezing elsewhere in Vermont during the coming warm stretch, we're going to see a lot of thawing on pond and lake ice. 

Lake ice in Vermont used to always be pretty reliable by February. I guess not anymore. 

WINTER AHEAD?

For those of you who are still pining for winter, it still looks like it will gradually turn cooler next week, with temperatures possibly ending up a little below normal by much of next week. 

Computer models are also disagreeing on a possible snowfall next Tuesday.  Some models bring a storm far enough to give Vermont a decent snowstorm, while others keep the storm well to the south, missing us entirely.

I guess stay tuned on that one.  . 

The Great Reese Witherspoon Snow Crisis Of '24 Explained

Reese Witherspoon enjoying her
"Snow Salt Chococcino"
made with snow from her back
yard. This precipitated a
crisis/uproar for some reason. 

 Having lived in Vermont my entire life so far, I can't believe the controversy that erupted over the past few days involving Reese Witherspoon.     

That sounds like a nonsensical sentence, but hear me out. 

A few days ago, Witherspoon made a nice little snow treat for herself and she shared the recipe on TikTok. One ingredient was snow she collected from her Nashville, Tennessee property during the recent cold snap. She created sort of a fancy sugar on snow, a version perhaps a little chichi for us Green Mountain Boys and Girls, but still intriguing. 

Anyway, she got immediate blowback from hordes of very wimpy, horrified fans. A typical response: 

"No no no, snow is not made to eat.....u can get seriously sick."

Um, probably not.

This thing has really blown up with TV talk shows, Facebook, X, TikTok you name it earnestly debating Witherspoon and her snow drink/dessert concoction. If space aliens came to Earth this week, they'd think the Witherspoon snow drink situation was the biggest crisis facing the planet ever.

As a hale and healthy 61 year old, I'm firmly in Camp Witherspoon.  I've eaten way more sugar on snow in my lifetime than anyone should admit. Sure, sometimes it was on shaved ice, but most of the time, I ate real snow - the stuff that falls from the sky in the winter - as part of my sugar on snow. 

(For the uninitiated, sugar on snow is packed snow with heated maple syrup drizzled onto it. You end up with a delicious taffy-like dessert).

Also, as a kid, when I was out sledding or building snowmen or something and I got thirsty, I'd just grab a handful of snow and eat it. 

Snow is safe. Unless you are exceedingly stupid. 

You have to use common sense, of course. How many times have you heard "Don't eat the yellow snow"?  Also most people understand that the gross stuff the snow plow piles on the side of the road is not for consumption, either.

And frankly, I probably wouldn't trust snow that has been sitting on the ground in Central Park in New York City for a week. Gawd knows what's in that. 

For the record, the Washington Post and others have weighed in on the Great Reese Witherspoon Snow Crisis Of '24. 

As the Post explains, there probably is trace amounts of pollutants in falling snow, but certainly not enough to harm you. Unless perhaps if you ate buckets of snow daily through decades of Vermont winters. 

 If you're really worried about safety, eat the snow that lands more than two hours into the storm.

When snow begins to fall, it scrubs the atmosphere of pollutants, so the first inch or two has slightly higher amounts of contaminants in it. But those first couple of inches aren't exactly Love Canal. 

To her credit, Witherspoon pushed back against her critics, saying she (like me!) drank tap water as a kid and drank water directly out of garden hoses. And we're fine.

Witherspoon gathered up some snow, melted it down in a glass container and showed her followers that the resulting water from the melted snow looked nice and clear. 

Besides, she asked, how the hell do you filter snow?

Yeah, good question. 

For the record, here's how to make Witherspoon's "snow salt chococinno"

Gather fresh, clean snow from the yard and put the snow in a mug. Drizzle the snow with salted caramel and chocolate syrup, then pour in some cold brew coffee.  It does look good, judging from the videos. 

Witherspoon started a movement.  Do you have any snow drink or dessert recipes?  

Maybe I should experiment with snow desserts and dishes.  If I get ambitious, I could become the Barefoot Contessa of gourmet snow recipes. 

 

A Vermont Traffic Cam Proves The "Bridges Freeze Before Roads" Warnings

Northbound Interstate 89 Exit 10 in Waterbury,
Vermont this morning in this screen grab from a 
Vermont Agency of Transportation webcam. Note the
area of snow and ice ahead of the vehicle. That's
a bridge, showing how they DO freeze before the road.

As of early afternoon, road conditions had vastly improved in Vermont since this morning. 

The snow has stopped, and there were only a few patches of non-freezing drizzle left behind. Most places were a little above freezing as of 2 p.m. 

This morning, the worry was bridges and overpasses freezing even if roadways stayed fairly clear due to warm ground temperatures. 

That set up is especially dangerous, because speeding traffic encountering frozen pavement on bridges is a recipe for crashes.

There was a great illustration of the bridges freeze before road rule this morning on a Vermont Agency of Transportation webcam. It showed Interstate 89 northbound in Waterbury, including Exit 10 to Route 100.

The long exit ramp includes a bridge over Graves Brook. The screen grab in this post shows what the exit looked like during this morning's storm. Click on the image in this post to make it bigger and easier to see. 

As you can see, the Interstate, and most of the exit ramp looked just wet, maybe a little slushy.  But see that stripe of white in front of the vehicle taking the exit?  That's the bridge I was talking about. It was snow and ice covered, unlike the rest of the road.

The vehicle in the photo appeared to be braking, the motorist probably wisely anticipating the ice on the bridge. 

The bridges freeze before road rule will be with us all winter. But it's especially prevalent this time of year, when lingering warmth in the ground radiates to the road surface. There's no ground under bridges, obviously, so those overpasses get cold, quickly. 

Let this be a lesson: Don't let icy bridges surprise you this winter. Keep your speed steady and slow on approach to the bridge.  Don't smash your foot on the brake as soon as you are on the bridge.  You will probably spin out. Don't do any sharp accelerations or turn your steering wheel much. Just coast across to the other side.  

By the way, if a thermometer in your car says it's above freezing, don't necessarily trust it. It might be, say, 34 degrees. But it could well have been below freezing recently, and the bridge might not have had a chance to thaw out yet. 

All this is just a word to the wise, as it's just the start of winter. 

Life-Threatening Floods Loom In Vermont/Northeast Later Today Through Monday

National Weather Service forecast of rainfall through
8 a.m. Tuesday. This is subject to change. Also, this 
map doesn't pick up potential pockets of 5 to 6
inches of rain in this event. 

I'm very worried, frankly.

All the ingredients are coming together for a Vermont flood that could well be the worst since Irene in 2011.  Take this one very seriously. 

Overall, we're expecting two to four inches of rain, with local amounts five inches or higher, pretty much statewide. This is falling on saturated soil, with some areas already  having seen flash flooding. 

 This won't be the local flash floods that have been pestering us for days and causing damage. This could well be a memorable, dangerous statewide event.  

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington wasn't mincing words in their forecast discussion Sunday morning:

"Sections of Vermont and northern New York are under risk for flash flooding on scale that has not been seen in many years. Almost every plausible impact is on the table, from urban flash flooding, excessive run-off contributing to sharp river rises and flooding across small creeks and even across main stem rivers. Washouts, damage to culverts and potential mudslides in steep terrain are likely."

Such hair on fire language is rare from the National Weather Service, so when you see them doing that, it's really time to get nervous. 

Meanwhile, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has Vermont, along with the rest of western New England, eastern New York and Pennsylvania and New Jersey  under a moderate risk of flash floods for later today and tonight. 

"Moderate risk" doesn't sound all that bad, but it is. It's a pretty rare designation for this neck of the woods and means flash flooding is all but inevitable and in some places it will be significant. 

The moderate risk stays in effect in all of Vermont and western New Hampshire all day Monday into Monday night. It's really rare to have the same spot be under a moderate risk on two consecutive days. All the more reason to worry. 

I've been "wish casting," which means I'm hoping for a weather outcome better than the official forecasts. You know, drizzle and fog instead of flash floods, that sort of thing. I suppose we can still hope for a better outcome than what's predicted, and that still might happen. 

But it's not looking great.

FORECAST PARTICULARS

This event will start out like the one we had on Friday. 

Thunderstorms will blossom across Vermont and surrounding areas this afternoon.  Some places in these initial hours might not get much rain at all. Other places will see torrential rains and flash floods, much like we saw around Killington and Worcester on Friday. 

We don't know in advance what towns will get hit today. But problems are most likely in and near the Green Mountains. Especially in areas that saw those torrents on Friday. 

These storms will blend into an area-wide zone of heavy rain this evening and that will continue overnight. That's when the worst flooding starts. 

In some respects, this is more dangerous than the devastating Hurricane Irene in 2011. On that occasion, most of the flash floods happened during the day. Daytime flash floods are easier to react to, and get out of the way. 

At night, you can't see so much, so people aren't as aware they're in danger.  They might be sleeping in their homes, unaware water is rising around them or a mudslide is headed their way. 

On the roads, it's even worse. During the day, it's usually pretty easy to figure out the road in front of you is flooded and/or washed away.  At night, you're cruising along, and you don't see the high water, or missing road or bridge until it's too late, and you plunge in.

That's why I worry somebody might get killed in this flooding. I think we're all hoping my worry comes to naught. 

The heavy rain will continue into Monday morning.  As the morning goes on, the rain might tend to dwindle some. But don't let your guard down. 

Two reasons for that:

The first if the main rivers will be rising rapidly.  Current USGS forecast call for minor to moderate flooding along the bigger rivers, but I suspect it could be worse than that, given the amount of rain headed our way. 

Another problem is torrential thunderstorms could re-blossom Monday afternoon, renewing and intensifying the flash flood threat. 

It's hard to say who's getting the most rain out of this, as it will be pretty variable. Some towns will really get bullseyed.

Current forecasts have southwestern Vermont and the Green Mountains with the most, with four to five inches. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is also especially worried about the east slopes of the southern and central Green Mountains on Monday. 

By the way, this might not necessarily be over by Tuesday. We're stuck in the same general weather pattern we've been in. Locally heavy rain, and potential flash floods could get going again later in the week. We'll have to keep an eye on that, too.

SAFETY TIPS

Have several ways to receive weather warnings.  Weather radios are great. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is awesome. Click on this link as a handy way to get to them. Trusted meteorologists at Vermont television and radio stations are excellent resources, too. 

Social media is not a great source to get warnings. Social media can be inaccurate, or the warnings you see there might be old, expired, or have changed since they were posted. 

If you are in a safe place overnight tonight, I suggest you don't drive anywhere, because of the before-mentioned difficulty in seeing floods and washouts in front of you. 

If your basement is prone to flooding, move items out this morning.  It's dangerous to go into a flooded basement to retrieve stuff because walls or items can collapse, which could trap you. 

 If you are in a flood-prone area, or near steep slopes, have several ways to receive flash flood or other warnings. If emergency services knock on your door and tell you to evacuate, do it immediately.  It won't hurt to prepare a "to go" bag this morning so you can grab it and go. The best "to go" bag is probably actually a waterproof bin 

The "to go" bag or bin should include important papers, medication, changes of clothes, wallet, items that are important to you, changes of clothes, flashlights and food and water.  Include "comfort items" for little kids, such as a favorite teddy bear. Have a plan to grab your pets in a hurry, too. 

Have a plan on where to go. If you have to evacuate, what's the best route to safety? Is there a Plan B route? Think about that now, before it starts raining. 

Also, head off to an ATM this morning and grab some cash, if possible. It's better to have cash on hand rather than a credit or debit card for sudden expenses. Especially if there are power troubles.

If you have possessions or property in flood plains of Vermont rivers, and if you have the ability, move them to higher ground this morning. This includes livestock, by the way. 

During the flood, avoid walking through flowing water, and watch out for fallen power lines or leaking propane tanks.  Don't stand on the edge of washouts, as there might be nothing beneath the thin layer of dirt or asphalt you're standing on.  Also, stay away from other hazards, such as shifting ground in mudslide zones, tottering trees or damaged buildings. 

SUMMARY

As far as I'm concerned, this is an emergency, and people are probably going to need help. This might not be at the level of Irene, but it's still likely to turn into a a really, really big deal.  Let's also hope everybody stays safe.  This is a potentially life threatening situation. We don't need deaths to make this whole thing even worse.

Of course, the National Weather Service and other reputable meteorologists are watching this thing incredibly closely.  They know what they're doing, so pay attention to what they're saying.