Vermont Storm And Tornado Risk Is On For Today. What To Know

Here's a map you don't see every day. It's from NOAA's
Storm Prediction Center and has easily the nation's
most significant tornado risk centered over Vermont. 

You're going to want to be weather aware in Vermont, most of the rest of New England, much of New York and southern Quebec today, as danger lurks. 

The already well-advertised danger includes the high likelihood of severe thunderstorms and one of the highest tornado risks I've ever seen in Vermont. 

That's not to say the whole state will be leveled by twisters or even damaging thunderstorms winds. 

Not even close. But somebody is going to suffer the loss of trees, power lines, and possibly even roofs or weaker structures in the worst storms. 

There's no guarantee there will be a tornado in Vermont, but the chances are decent that at least a brief one might form if any supercell storms can get going without too much interference from neighboring storms 

Even if there's no tornadoes today, it's a day to keep watch.

HOW IT PLAYS OUT

The warm front which was sort of hung up in far southern Vermont yesterday was finally on the move north this morning.

It was unleashing lots of showers, with embedded heavy downpours and rumbles of thunder. I'm not at all worried about this early morning stuff. We won't have any severe storms with it. 

The warm front will - as long expected - stall out somewhere in southern Quebec.  You might get a false sense of security later this morning as the rain stops and the sun tries to break through. 

But that brighter but humid break in the weather helps set the stage for today's wild weather.  Storms will start to fire up by early afternoon, probably mostly in eastern New York then spreading into Vermont. 

If there's a lot of sun before this happens, that'll make things even worse as the sun's heat will increase instability. But even if we don't get much sun, the atmosphere is primed for severe weather. As of 8 a.m., I do see a fair amount of cleaning skies in central New York, heading our way. 

I don't think it's a question of if we'll see severe thunderstorms somewhere in Vermont today. It's only a matter of whether they'll be few and far between, or we get a ton of them, or something in the middle of that. 

That stalled warm front will help to veer the winds in the atmosphere, which could make some storms turn into rotating supercells.

There will probably actually be two types of storms around. One of them is those rotating supercells. They'll be somewhat isolated from one another and carry the risk of destructive winds, large hail and of course perhaps a tornado.

The other storms will be clusters or relatively short lines of storm, which will really be as dangerous as the supercells. The storm clusters are less likely to produce any spin ups, but they can contain very damaging straight line winds. 

As of very early this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center was still placing the best chances of a tornado in Vermont along and south of a line from Rutland to St. Johnsbury. Note that a tornado could also spin up anywhere else in the Green Mountain State.

Another map from the Storm Prediction Center this morning centers the greatest risk for tornadoes over central and northern Vermont except for the extreme Northeast Kingdom. 

The higher risk of tornadoes also extends through most of New Hampshire and western Massachusetts. 

This general forecast will get updated later this morning.

By the way, don't count on the Green Mountains to disrupt a wannabe tornado. That could happen, but then again, if the conditions are right, they're known to climb up and down hills. 

The threat from the big storms today will wane in the evening

WHAT TO DO

First of all, there's no need to panic over this. We're not used to tornado risk days, but they do happen occasionally.

All day today, try to stick to an area where you can quickly get into a sturdy building if a storm approaches. Today is NOT the day for a boat ride on Lake Champlain, or a nice hike in the Green Mountains. 

You might want to secure loose stuff like lawn furniture this morning and charge your devices, since I expect power outages. 

Always have with you a way to receive warnings. More than one source is best. If you have a weather radio, have that with you. Also tune into reliable sources of weather information, like the National Weather Service or our fine television meteorologists in the area.

Those meteorologists will probably cut into regular program if the tornado or very severe storm threat arises.

If you get a tornado warning, immediately grab your kids and pets and head to the basement. If you don't have a basement, try to get into a windowless place in the middle of the house or building you're in.  It doesn't hurt to put on sturdy shoes and a bicycle or motorcycle helmet for added protection.

Whatever you do, don't look for the tornado to see if it's really there and approaching. Chances are if it's there, it's hidden by trees or thick curtains of rain. New England tornadoes are often wrapped up in rain, and you don't see that familiar funnel shaped cloud common out in the Plains. 

Some of today's severe storms, even if they don't include tornadoes, will be stronger than the usual gusty ones we see in the summer.  If you receive a severe thunderstorm warning, it's still not a bad idea   to get in the basement, as if it were a tornado.  At the very least, stay away from the windows and be in a sturdy building. 

There's probably going to be a lot of cloud to ground lightning with these storms, so be careful with that.  There's the risk of localized flash flooding if the downpours are intense. That could be especially true near the Canadian border, where the heaviest rain from the warm front probably fell this morning.  

After the storm, look out for live wires.  If there's debris, be careful around that. Maybe wear work boots, too, since there could be sharp objects like nails and such in the mess. If you need to use a chain saw to clear fallen branches and trees, be careful, know what you're doing and don't be under the influence. 

Definitely stay out of any houses or buildings that have a lot of damage, say if a large tree fell on it or something like that. 

Many storm injuries aren't caused by the storm itself, but injuries during the cleanup after it. 

To the best of my knowledge, nobody has ever died in a tornado in Vermont. I sincerely doubt will end that great record today, but we still want to be alert to any dangers coming our way today.