Lack Of Early Season Hurricanes No Reason To Relax, Lot Of "Em Still On The Way

Screen grab from a 13News Now video shows an example
of the chaotic flooding in Florida this week. 

There has been no tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and eastern Pacific Ocean so far this year.    

If no tropical storms form in the western hemisphere by this coming Monday, it'll only be the third time since 1970 that no named storms had formed by then. It's possible, but not likely we'll have our first tropical storm by Monday. 

That's not to say there's no signs of life in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic Ocean.

Just ask all those unfortunate flood victims in Florida. Up to 20 inches of rain have fallen on parts of South Florida since Tuesday, and more downpours are moving in. 

Blame that on something called  Invest 90L. No, it's not some weird watery investment scheme. Invests are a name the National Hurricane Center gives to disturbance in the tropics that bear investigation. It's a way to focus on patches of bad weather than might (or might not) develop into a tropical storm or hurricane. 

Invest 90L proves that you don't need a full-blown tropical storm or hurricane to cause havoc. The storm unleashed rain that fell at rates of up to four inches per hour.  The flooding, as you'd image is widespread, with numerous houses, mobile homes, businesses and countless cars destroyed or severely wrecked.

Nearly a foot of rain fell on Fort Lauderdale, making it one of the Florida cities hit with catastrophic flooding. This week's storm comes a little over a year after an incredible 22.5 inches of rain on a single day inundated Fort Lauderdale. 

Climate change might have made this worse. Downpours tend to be heavier as a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Given the right conditions, this extra atmospheric water can unload in the form of extreme downpours. 

For the record, Invest 90L seems to be moving off the east coast of Florida to an eventual position off of Georgia and the Carolinas.  The National Hurricane Center is giving this only a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm.

NHC is also watching an area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that stands a somewhat better chance of developing into a tropical storm sometime next week. 

Despite the unusual dearth of tropical systems in the western hemisphere, this isn't all that strange. Hurricane season doesn't really ramp up until August. The ingredients are still there for a terrible season. 

Ocean waters in the main areas where hurricanes develop are still far above normal. That's jet fuel for any cluster of thunderstorms tempted to develop into a hurricane.

We're still finishing up the transition from an El Nino to La Nina weather pattern. El Nino tends to suppress tropical storms in the Atlantic, which might help explain the lack of activity so far. But La Nina does the opposite, encouraging tropical systems to develop.

Earlier this week, the closely watched Colorado State University updated its April 4 hurricane forecast by not really making any changes at all. They're still going with an extremely busy season of 23 named storms in the Atlantic Ocean between now and the end of November or so. This includes a predicted 11 full-fledged hurricanes.