Trump Preventing Atlantic Hurricane This Year, Says His Sycophant.

Donald Trump, shown here windblown and 
exhausted after blocking all Atlantic Ocean
hurricane this year so far. Allegedly. 

Halliluja! President Trump is singlehandedly preventing hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean!  

Want proof? Just turn to the social media account called Rapid Response 47. It calls itself "The office White House Rapid Response account. Supporting President Trump's America First agenda and holding the Fake News accountable. MAGA!"

As you can imagine, you'll get some wild comments from that account. 

On the social media site X, this all started from a post by meteorologist Chris Martz.  He wrote, "History has been made! No hurricanes have formed in the North Atlantic Ocean so far this year. This is the FIRST time on record in the satellite era (since 1966)."

Fact check: Martz is completely correct. All the hurricane experts are pretty gobsmacked by this lack of Atlantic hurricanes so far this year. 

But then Rapid Response 47 page tagged Martz's post with the message, "Thank you President Trump!"

That's right. The Trump team says Trump has somehow stopped Atlantic hurricanes this year. I haven't seen any indication of how Trump has stopped the hurricanes. 

But everyone on the coastline form Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine must be thanking the Glorious Orange One for protecting their homes and properties and beaches.

But wait a minute. Is Trump really preventing those hurricanes or is something else afoot?

It's probably no accident that Rapid Response 47 tagged Martz.  Martz is a MAGA-friendly climate skeptic, one that the Trump sycophants probably feel safe with. 

But in a post today, Martz posted something else. Not in response to the Trump people, just science. And once again, Martz was completely accurate. Turns out maybe it isn't Trump who is preventing the hurricanes. 

Martz explained that we aren't getting hurricanes in the Atlantic due to shear, which is changes in wind speed and direction with height. The strong winds aloft are tearing apart wannabe tropical storms. Plumes of dust from the Sahara Desert are also working against tropical systems. 

He didn't get into why there is so much shear. It's because El Nino is currently super strong, and it continues to cause that shear over the Atlantic Ocean. 

Responses to the claim that Trump is stopping hurricanes have been predictably brutal.

Some examples:

"Can't believe Trump can control weather but not the debt."

"Holy crap. You're thanking him for the weather? This is some messed up North Korea shit going on."

"Dumbfuck cult members think their Flatulent Fuhrer controls the weather."

"All he had to do was to threaten to change the name to the American Ocean, and the hurricanes are cowering in fear.!"

Even Ted Cruz cryptically posted on X: 

"Since I'm told that he's responsible for everything, I blame Trump."

I have to ask why Trump hasn't stopped the hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean. Two of them have sideswiped Hawaii, and caused a lot of damage there. Another Pacific hurricane stayed offshore, but sent enormous waves crashing into the southern California coast, causing quite a bit of damage there. 

This isn't the first time Trump has been praised for his alleged ability to control weather. Last year, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, which was a welcomed break from years of destructive storms. 

Then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, during a televised cabinet meeting, said, "Sire, you made it through a hurricane season without a hurricane.....Even you kept the hurricanes away. We appreciate that."

Sigh.  

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30, so there is plenty of time for such a storm to form. 

The National Hurricane Center says a tropical system could form in the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean later this week. 

Tropical Storm Eduoard Drowns Part Of Texas; ; But Storms Lacking In Atlantic; Pacific Ocean Is Wild, Though

Although the Atlantic Ocean is quiet, hurricanes are
spinning up frequently in the very warm Pacific Ocean.
from left to right, Hurricane Lowell south of Hawaii,
Hurricane Karina in the middle and Hurricane Marie
off the west coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall as a 60 mph tropical storm just east of the mouth of the Sabine River in far southwestern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon.  

It might have not been the strongest tropical system ever, but it showed remarkable staying power as it moved inland. Tropical storms tend to fall apart quickly once they move inland. Edouard did not.

Nearly 24 hours after making landfall, it still kept its general shape. Wind advisories for gusts up to 40 mph were in effect two days after landfall. 

The real problem, though, was the flooding. The storm dumped 18 to 24 inches on some areas of East Texas. In one town, 27.53 inches of rain fell. This all forced  dozens of rescues from flooded cars, homes, even an assisted living facility. 

So it was a destructive mess, but at least it wasn't as bad as a full hurricane.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Edouard was a persistent little devil. But this is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. You'd expect full-blown hurricanes this time of year, but nothing. We've had five tropical storms this year in the Atlantic, and none made it to hurricane status. 

Three of the storms - Arthur, Bertha and Edouard - affected the western Gulf Coast. 

The United States is enjoying a very quiet hurricane season so far thanks to the big giant El Nino that has developed eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Ninos affect weather patterns around the world.

In the Atlantic Ocean, El Nino creates strong upper level winds. Tropical storms start out as clumps of thunderstorms over the tropical oceans.  The strong upper level winds rips those storms apart. Or, if a tropical storm or hurricane has formed and then encounters those strong winds way high up, the thunderstorms in the tropical system either get ripped apart or get tugged away from the storm's center, causing a weakening trend.

Unless things change dramatically in the Atlantic Ocean soon, this could easily be among the quietest hurricane seasons on record. Which is a nice switch from the slew of busy, destructive seasons we've had in recent years. 

The East Coast of the United States is being spared a bad hurricane season, but we're not out of the woods. We could always have a late season hurricane. And El Nino could well create extreme late autumn and winter storms that would cause their own damage. 

PACIFIC OCEAN

On the other hand, Pacific Ocean hurricanes love El Ninos. 

The ocean is oddly warm during El Ninos, and upper level winds are light. Perfect conditions for incubating hurricanes. 

This year, hurricanes have been forming one after another in the eastern Pacific Ocean and then heading west.

Hurricane Lowell is currently the most concerning of the bunch. It was spinning several hundred miles south of Hawaii. It's was a major hurricane with winds of 140 mph. Meteorologists think it will turn a sharp turn north and eventually pass perilously close to the western Hawaiian islands. However, that forecast is still really uncertain, so stay tuned. 

As of Thursday morning, Hurricane Karina was churned well east of the Hawaii with top winds of 115 mph..

.Hurricane Marie was several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. It had winds of 90 mph and was strengthening as it headed northwestward away from Mexico

Another tropical storm could form off the southwest coast of Mexico in the coming days.  

Trump Says Cuba Doesn't Have Hurricanes. Cubans Beg To Differ

Damage in Cuba last October from Hurricane Melissa.
Donald Trump's assertion that Cuba gets no hurricanes 
appears to be very untrue

 It seems like Donald Trump loves his conquests, or threatened ones. I've lost track of the nations he says he wants to take over, but one of his latest targets appears to be Cuba.  

Since this isn't so much a geopolitical blog, we'll get into another excuse to pick on our Orange One

As the Miami Herald reports:

"Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that Cuba would be ideal for the U.S. to take over because of pleasant weather and it is not prone to hurricanes."

The cockwomble's exact quote was:

"I think Cuba, in its own way, tourism and everything else, it's a beautiful island great weather. They're not in hurricane zone, which is nice for a change, you know? They won't be asking us for money of hurricanes every week."

The alleged lack of Cuban hurricanes might come as news for those living on the island.  

We have to harken all the way back to October, 2025, yes, a whole five months ago to find an example of Cuba being hit by a hurricane 

That was Hurricane Melissa. After it finished up in Jamaica, where it was tied for the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin, Melissa roared on through Cuba.

It wasn't as strong as in Jamaica, but it was strong enough, with part of eastern Cuba seeing sustained was of 115 mph with a gust to 136 mph. Melissa wrecked an electrical grid in eastern Cuba that had already been trashed by previous hurricanes and not yet fully repaired

Melissa was definitely not a one-off

Cuba is historically one of the hardest hit countries in the Western Hemisphere during hurricane season.

Josh Morgerman, a veteran hurricane chaser and one of the world's leading hurricane experts, said on Facebook that he's been getting a LOT of questions about how many hurricanes hit Cuba. He didn't say why everybody's asking, but thanks to the Miami Herald and other media outlet, we now know.

Anyway, Morgerman has the stats:

"Just since 2000 the island nation has had 16 hurricanes, include a rare Category5 (Irma, 2017) and five Cat 4s. In Gustave, 2008, Cuba measured a sustained 1-minute wind of 135 knots (155 mph) gusting to a whopping 184 knots (212 mph) - one of the highest official wind readings ever recorded in a hurricane."

Our Orange Whopper has said he believes  he'll "have the honor of taking Cuba" soon. Oh, great. 

If he does somehow make Cuba part of the United States - good luck with that - Trump is probably right that Cubans "won't be asking for money for hurricanes every week."  

Trump still seems intent on reducing money for FEMA are giving up on it entirely. Which raises the possibility that nobody in the actually now-existing United States would receive disaster relief. 

Let's just make things more dystopian, shall we?

  

Climate Change Might Make Sahara Desert Wetter, Could Make Hurricane Seasons Scarier

A satellite image of a bunch of dust blowing off of the
Sahara desert into the Atlantic Ocean. This dust tends
to suppress hurricanes. Recent research indicates
climate change will make the Sahara wetter, which
means less dust. That could make hurricane
seasons of the future worse. 

 We found another way that climate change could make life difficult for people - In Africa and maybe here in the United States, too. 

The Weather Channel tells us:

"New research from the University of Illinois Chicago suggests the Sahara Desert, long defined by relentless heat and extreme dryness, could receive up to 75% more rainfall by the end of the century. 

It's a dramatic shift that could ripple far beyond northern Africa, reshaping ecosystems, threatening vulnerable communities and even supercharging the Atlantic hurricane season."

Overall, the atmosphere in a warmer world can hold more moisture than the cooler air of the 20th century. Also, climate change shifts atmospheric circulations. Wet areas get drier, and drier areas get wetter.  

Scientists think the Sahara is one of those places that will get wetter with climate change. 

As is always the case with climate change, this shift will screw a lot of people. According to UIC Today, a publication from the University of Illinois/Chicago:

"'Changing rainfall patterns will affect billions of people, both in and outside Africa,' said lead author Thierry Ndetatsin Taguela, a postdoctoral climate researcher in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. 'We have to start planning to face these changes, from flood management to drought-resist net crops."

The extra rain might increase the amount of vegetation in the Sahara. We don't know what that means in terms of land use, the effects on humans, migration and a whole host of other issues. 

Saharan sand doesn't easily absorb water easily, so the obvious first effect is flooding. But there's something else that might happen. Which affects us here in the United States. 

More rain means wetter sand, which wouldn't be as easily be picked up into the air by winds as dust. 

Dust from the Sahara is often gathered by winds in great quantities and blown out over the Atlantic Ocean. The dust tends to suppress tropical storms and hurricanes. When there's a lot of Saharan dust over areas of the Atlantic where tropical systems form, there's rarely such activity. Or if there is, the storms tend to be weaker than they would be otherwise

Losing the dust increases the risk of more frequent and stronger Atlantic hurricanes. It could mean more landfalling hurricanes in the United States, according to the Weather Channel.

Which isn't great news.

Much of the Saharan dust crossing the Atlantic sifts down on the vast Amazon rain forest. The dust contains a lot of phosphorus, a critical plant nutrient. 

Each year, about 22,000 tons of phosphorus in the Amazon washes away in rain and flooding yearly. Coincidentally and fortunately, about 22,000 tons of phosphorus lands in the Amazon every year from the African dust. 

I haven't immediately found any recent research that would predict what would happen to the Amazon rainforest if the Saharan dust stopped blowing into it. But a Climate Central article from about a decade ago suggested there would be some sort of biosphere changes or plant adaptations. 

I bet this issue will be the subject of scientific research soon.  

Ice Barbie Exults Glorious Leader Trump For PreventIng U.S. Hurricanes Landfalls In 2025,

Kristi "Ice Barbie" Noem praised Donald Trump 
yesterday for keeping hurricanes away from the U.S.
My guess is he used a Sharpie to do that. 

Hurricane season ended last Sunday, and with that, we can rejoice that the United States was not hit by a hurricane this year for the first time since 2015. 

And to whom do we owe that great fortune? President Trump himself! 

We learned this via one of Trump's cabinet meetings, this one held on Tuesday. .You know the ones, where each cabinet secretary praise glorious leader to an extreme that would make North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jung-Un blush.  

Meanwhile, Trump snoozes. 

Which gets me to the hurricane story. None other that Homeland Secretary Kristi "Ice Barbie" Noem, said to "daddy" this gem. "Sir, you made it through hurricane season without a hurricane....Even you kept the hurricanes away. We appreciate that."

Well, I for one definitely appreciate that the U.S. was not hit by a hurricane this year. Gawd knows we have enough problems with adding hurricanes to the mix. 

Ice Barbie did not disclose how Trump kept the hurricanes away. My guess is with a Sharpie, but I don't know how exactly he pulled that off.   

I do see a scandal brewing Trump's Great Hurricane Accomplishment, though. Trump somehow failed to prevent that big flood during the July 4 weekend, the one that killed 135 people, several of whom were girls at a Christian summer camp. 

Christian summer camp? You would have thought the god-like Trump would have intervened, since he and his MAGA follows tell us they're such good Christians. 

There was, of course, trouble with hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean this year. Hurricane Melissa devastated parts of Jamaica in late October.  I don't think Trump had any influence on that storm, but what does he care? It's not as if he's into helping other nations anyway. 

Other hurricanes that did not hit the United States still caused trouble, like stirring up waves that washed seaside homes on the Outer Banks of North Carolina into the ocean. I guess Trump should have nudged those storms further out to sea, or made the go away with his Big Beautiful Bill, or some damn thing. 

Meanwhile, I'm not really happy with the weather here in Vermont. We're expecting snow squalls and bitterly cold air. Can't Trump push that away from us?

Oh, wait, we're a blue state. He's probably pulling that wintry weather our way as punishment. Even if he has to import it from Canada. What is the tariff rate on cold fronts? 

Is It Time To Establish A Category 6 For Hurricanes?

Satellite image of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa last month.
It was such a powerful storm that it is once
again raising the question of whether there should
be a new Category 6 for extra powerful hurricanes.

After the power of Hurricane Melissa, the question of whether to create a Category 6 ranking for hurricanes is being raised again. 

Melissa was part of a spate of Atlantic hurricanes that were much more powerful than most past storms. 

Climate change might be making some hurricanes stronger than ever before, even though the overall number of such storms doesn't seem to be increasing.  

Hurricane strength is determined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.  It's a five-point scale, with the worst hurricanes being Category 5, with winds of 157 mph or more. 

On that scale, the difference in wind speed between the categories of hurricanes is around 30 mph, give or take. For instance, a top range Category 4 hurricane has winds 27 mph stronger than a top-tiered Category 2 hurricane. 

The peak winds in Category 5 Hurricane Melissa were 185 mph, or 28 mph above the threshold for that category. 

With hurricanes likely getting stronger and stronger amid climate change, will hurricanes need a Category 6? And how would that work?

Meteorologists and other scientists are beginning to grapple with the question.  

According to The Independent:

"It's been proposed that such a hurricane would have maximum sustained winds of 192 miles per hour and could do much more damage than structures designed to withstand Category 5 winds are able to handle."

Hurricane Melissa came close to this theoretical Category 6, falling just 7 mph under that proposed category. Post-storm analysis might boost Melissa's top winds to or over 192 mph, because there is some uncertain, preliminary evidence that winds might have been higher than first reported.

Meteorologists are divided on the issue. 

Certainly, some support the idea of creating a Category 6.

"As long as we're using wind-based metrics, it simply doesn't make sense (mathematically or fiscally or sociologically) to artificially cap the scale at 5 any more," said Climatologist Michael Mann.

Katharine Heyhoe, an atmospheric scientist and Chief Scientist at the Nature Conservancy, told the Independent that a Category 6 would take into account the worrisome effects of climate change and the bigger risk of damage from worsening storms. 

Heyhoe said the whole Saffir-Simpson scale might need a full redesign to take into account rainfall amounts associated with hurricanes. Flooding is responsible for a majority of the hurricane-related economic impacts.

On the other hand, Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist and hurricane expert at Colorado State University, said a Category 6 is unnecessary. Category 5 storms can leave communities uninhabitable for weeks or months, so the effects of a supposed Category 6 would have little practical difference. 

Another problem with fudging with the Saffir-Simpson scale is it would make it hard to compare storms decades ago with ones that occur under a scoring system with a Category 6.

"If we change it, it becomes difficult to compare new storms to old ones unless we reanalyze past data. We'd be moving the goalposts for what defines a 'major' hurricane," said Dr. Zachary Handlos, director of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Undergraduate Degree Program at Georgia Tech, in an interview with WCNC.

However, Handlos said it could still be worth it to establish a new classification system for hurricanes. The Saffir-Simpson scale only takes into account wind speeds. 

Which means the scale doesn't capture a hurricane's a storm's full impact.  Hurricanes cause severe inland flooding storm surges and tornadoes, all of which can devastate towns and cities far from where the hurricane came ashore. 

Hurricane Helene last year is a classic example of that. It came ashore in Florida but destroyed swaths of western North Carolina. 

Storm surges and rainfall cause almost 80 percent of hurricane deaths, which is a good reason to revamp the hurricane categorizing system. 

Handlos said a new hurricane rating system should be easy enough for the public to understand. They need to know right away whether they should evacuate, whether they're allowed to drive through the immediate aftermath of a hurricane, how big the flooding threat is, that type of thing. 

There already is an alternative hurricane rating system. 

As Live Science reports, Jennifer Collins, a professor in the School in Geosciences at the University, and her colleagues developed the hurricane rating system called TCSS taking into account wind speed, storm surge and rainfall. 

Collins' hurricane rating system scores between one and five each of the three hazards, depending on their predicted severity for a given hurricane. The scores are combined into a final score. 

Collins' research team sent 4,000 participants living along the Gulf and East coasts forecasts for 10 fictitious hurricanes affecting their communities.

Half the participants received warnings based on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while the other half got her  TCSS system. The participants then filled out an online quiz about how they would react under the different scenarios. 

It turns out people who received the TCSS forecasts were more likely to identify the main hazard from a hurricane correctly, and significantly more likely to evacuate for non-wind hazards than if they had received the Saffir-Simpson rating. 

The survey participants also were more likely to take the correct precautions, such as setting out sandbags, or put up window protections with Collins' warning system. 

As we noted, hurricanes are not just about wind. Some hurricanes have relatively weak winds, but incredible amounts of rain. (Think Hurricane Irene, which affected Vermont in 2011).

The trick is to make a warning system that acknowledges the complexity of the storm, but at the same time keeps things simple so that the public knows how to react to the hurricane.  

Clickbaiting A Disaster: How Social Media "Influencers" Spread Weather Panic For Profit. .

Various forecasts for the track of Hurricane Melissa,
issued last Friday evening. Most of the predicted
paths accurately predicted the hurricane would
miss the U.S. East Coast by a wide margin. One
of the forecasts had it swerving toward New York
and some online hyped that. The black line is
the average of all the forecasts, and it was
quite close to the actual track of Melissa. 

Hurricane Melissa was bad enough, right?  

At least 50 people have died in the hurricane The destruction is immense in Jamaica. Haiti is a flooded, disastrous mess. Parts of the Bahamas are trashed, too. 

It was all super frightening. And fascinating in a horrifying way. 

As terrible as Hurricane Melissa was, people found ways to make everybody's distress over the tragedy worse.  

The means? Alarming people for online revenue.  . 

CLICKBAITING A DISASTER

A classic example came as Melissa was building up its strength last weekend. 

We knew then things would get bad, really bad in the Caribbean. The natural question was, would we in the United States suffer the wrath of Melissa?

By last Saturday, meteorologists were unanimously saying no, the United States was safe. 

But that didn't stop the folks on social media. One example came in a  Facebook post from Southern Maryland Weather Center  which called attention to this stupid scheme. 

Unlike Southern Maryland Weather Center and reputable meteorologists, social media scum scumbags This outfit tried to drum up fear on the East Coast, by suggesting Melissa would probably slam into the U.S. East Coast, probably near New Jersey.

This Facebook post said the person or persons they saw who showed the path toward New Jersey tried to clarify that the New Jersey scenario was unlikely, but who reads the fine print nowadays? 

Here's the deal: 

Each computer model has dozens of runs showing the projected track of storms. On Saturday, almost all those predicted tracks took Melissa over the Atlantic Ocean, very far from the East Coast. One of the tracks, on one of the models took Melissa to a landfall near New York City.  When you see a model track like that different from the others, it's known as an outlier. Probably bad data. Don't pay attention.

Most meteorologists and weather geeks ignored that outlier and accurately told the public that Hurricane Melissa would miss the East Coast by a wide margin. They figured it was better to be accurate than a lying carnival barker. 

Social media thrives on instilling fear, anger, strong emotions. You're going to get a stronger reaction if you tell New Yorkers a hurricane is going to destroy their homes. So more clicks, more revenue. 

This phenomenon isn't unique to Hurricane Melissa. Clickbaiters always pull looming weather catastrophes out of their hats whenever there's the slightest hint of a strange storm or temperature extreme. 

The average doomscroller on social media is not a weather geek. It's often hard for people not steeped in meteorology to figure out which source is reliable and which isn't.  

Go with the tried and true. The National Weather Service, or in the case of hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center.  

For local weather, the TV meteorologists in your area tend to be quite reliable. And use your judgement. If the weather source you're using always seems to tell you extreme weather is coming, beware. 

Blogs like this will report on severe weather when it's happening. Or before it happens. But if the forecast looks like a yawner, we'll tell you that, too.

Speaking of false Melissa information, I have another post coming on the flood of fake AI images about Hurricane Melissa and the harm that does. 

 . 

Mexican Flood Another Disaster That Did Not Get Enough Attention

Destruction in Mexico after deadly flooding this month.

 A huge flood and a series of mudslides last week in Mexico killed at least 76 people and caused widespread damage across huge swaths of the country. 

At last report, more than three dozen people were still missing. 

The torrential rains came last week from the remains of Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond, which sent moisture streaming across central and eastern Mexico. 

Reports Mexiconewsdaily.com:

"The government announced a relief plan of 10 billion pesos (US $543.2 million) to cover damages in Veracruz, Hidalgo, Puebla, Queretaro and San Luis Potosi, pledging rapid reconstruction along with a new cell phone alert for floods and storms."

The storms and flooding damaged 70,445 home. Of those, 43,578 were in Veracruz state. In some areas of Veracruz, two feet of rain fell within four days. 

In some places the devastation was catastrophic. The entire village of Chapula, population 400, was wiped off the map by a wall of water and mud. 

In one incident, a floating seafood restaurant in Tuxpan, in the state of Veracruz was swept free of its moorings along the raging Tuxpan River and and was launched into the Gulf of Mexico. 

In the Gulf, the restaurant broke into two parts, one of which traveled in the Gulf southward a total of about 350 miles. 

It's hard to say whether this had anything to do with climate change. It's consistent with a warming world. Rainfall can get more intense than they otherwise would be. So perhaps the rain wouldn't have been as intense had the world not warmed up so much. 

This was one of those disasters that were really huge, but didn't get much media attention. Maybe it's all too much to cover. Or, nobody is interested. Or the media outlets that should cover it don't want to. Not enough clicks on line? Too expensive to cover?  Or maybe we, me, haven't been paying enough attention.

In any event,  I've barely heard about it. There is some coverage from outlets like NBC, like you'll see below. 

Video:

NBC News report from when the confirmed death toll was 60. It gives you a sense of the breadth of this flooding. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

It's Been A Odd Tropical Storms, Hurricanes Season And The Weirdness Continues

Powerful Hurricane Erin in the central Atlantic Ocean
back on August 16. It's been a really weird 
hurrican

We're nearing the end of Atlantic hurricane season, with just a month and a half to go before things should get safer for another year. 

There's still a chance that more hurricanes could form and even threaten the United States. 

But as it stands now, we're lucky. So far at least, this is the first year since 2015 without a hurricane striking the U.S. coastline.

We needed the break. 

That's not to say tropical storms and hurricanes haven't messed with the U.S.

Moisture from brief, weak tropical storm Barry was a key ingredient into the horrible, deadly Texas floods over the Fourth of July weekend. 

Also in July, Tropical Storm Chantal splashed ashore in South Carolina in July, causing flooding in the Carolinas.

And, offshore Hurricanes Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto sent waves slamming into the U.S. East Coast, sending nearly a Outer Banks, North Carolina dozen homes crashing into the ocean.

This has been a weird hurricane season. It's always been go big or go home. Tropical systems in the Atlantic have either been brief, weak nothingburgers or monsters.

The monsters have all taken a turn north far offshore of the United States. Had this weather pattern been 400 or 500 miles further west, the East Coast would have been raked by repeated strong hurricanes. 

It's been weirder in recent weeks than earlier in the season. We had the drama of Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda setting a record for Atlantic hurricanes being so close to each other. That led to a strange dance between the two storms that changed their directions, and alternately strengthened and weakened both. 

Then we had Tropical Storm Jerry. The disturbance that became Jerry emerged from the west coast of Africa more than a week ago, That's awfully late in the season for something like that to happen.

The African disturbances that can turn into powerful hurricanes usually shut down by the end of September. 

Forecasters originally had high hopes for this storm, figuring Jerry would turn into a decent sized hurricane. But, strong upper level winds keep tearing the storm apart. It stayed a weak tropical storm until it dissipated over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean this past weekend.  

Then we had little-noticed Subtropical Storm Karen. 

Subtropical Storm Karen formed last Thursday, strangely far north in the Atlantic Ocean, at 44.5 degrees north 33 degrees west. That's about the same latitude as Nova Scotia. That's the furthest north such a storm has formed in at least 150 years. 

Subtropical storms are hybrids of the warm core storms that are true tropical storms and regular old storms that have warm and cold fronts and such. 

The water was actually "too cold" to support a tropical or subtropical storm. But because of a pocket of cold air high overhead was such a contrast to the tepid waters below that we were able to get Subtropical Storm Karen. 

It was so far north that its life was a short one. It dissipated Saturday. 

Now we have Tropical Storm Lorenzo, which outdid Jerry for being an incredibly late season African-born storm. 

As of this morning, Lorenzo was struggling just like Jerry did. Stronger upper level winds and dry air are tearing Lorenzo apart. If the storm survives these troubles, it'll head slowly northward and the northeastward out in the middle of the Atlantic.  It won't bother anyone. 

Some models bring a tropical storm or hurricane to the Caribbean Sea or far eastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple weeks, but those long range predictions are notoriously unreliable. 

Two More Houses Falls Into Sea In North Carolina. Video Shows Sad Home Destruction, Somber Onlookers

"Skybox," a house on the shore in Rondanthe,
North Carolina that has been teetering
for days, finally collapsed into the waves
Friday evening. Photo via Facebook
Wes Snyder Photography.

On Thursday, I told you seven houses fell into the Atlantic Ocean at Buxton, North Carolina, thanks to big swells created by now-former hurricanes Humberto and Imelda.  

Later on Thursday, an eighth house fell in. Like many of the other homes, this one was widely caught on video. 

One video, by Brett Barley I found to be quite striking.  It really brings home the sense of loss and sadness in the Outer Banks as climate change teams up with a naturally unstable barrier island to create a slow motion disaster. 

I'll link to it on the bottom of this post.

A ninth house known as "Skybox", collapsed in nearby Rodanthe, North Carolina last evening, bringing to 21 the number of houses lost to the rising sea over the past five years. 

Skybox had been teetering for days, and local residents were impressed by it resilience, despite being battered by hurricane swells for days. 

Several other houses look ready to go in the inevitable next hurricane or nor'easter 

The collapses over the past five years are often taking place under clear, balmy skies. Gorgeous weather, except for the falling houses. It's often been distant storms hurling powerful swells into the Outer Banks that have caused the destruction. 

In Barley's video, you can see a large crowd had gathered just behind a big debris field left by the other homes that fell to the waves.  It was a somber crowd, without the kinds of hoots and hollers you get the people watch other dramatic moments. 

Barley explains why in the note below the YouTube video:

"The majority of these homes were built buy locales, they are maintained by locals, the visitors who come and stay in them support the local economy. They are more than 'just someone's rental property.' They are a part of this community regardless of who owns it. 

They have helped put food on the table for may families here over and and over again. They have made memories for those who came and stay.... weddings, birthdays, honeymoons, family vacations, etc. They are part of the memories of those who live here and work/play amongst the beach and neighborhoods they make up."

Much like the case of Skybox, people root for other clearly doomed houses. Part of us always want to deny the inevitable. 

When the house in Barley's video first collapses, it bumps in a large green house next door, which is also being battered by the swells from the two distant hurricanes. You can see the green house is in rough shape, and could go at any time. The porches are askew, and you can detect a slight lean toward the ocean. One of the main pilings is badly cracked. 

Comparison photo showing homes in
Buxton, North Carolina a decade ago
and this week. The erosion has been
incredible. Photo via Facebook, 
Edward Sneed. 

Meanwhile the house that collapsed in the video slowly breaks apart. The first floor was partially crushed in the immediate crash, and the waves take apart the rest of the lower walls. The second floor briefly stays intact, which is what we've seen in previous collapse videos from the Outer Banks. 

The video lingers on how pieces of somebody's life come apart with each wave.  A striped couch and matching chairs suddenly bob in the waves. Then a refrigerator floats out of the house 

As the house is slowly disintegrates, it starts out to the left of the green house, and the waves take it front of that green house, and finally leave the wreckage to the right of the green house. The collapsed house never really hits the green house after the initial bump.

But sure enough, we'll one day, probably soon, see video of the green house collapsing, or the wreckage of it floating in the surf. 

The collapsed houses are an enormous mess, of course. The debris - wood, broken glass, nails, potentially toxic insulation and other materials, spread along for miles of beach.

Crews were moving in fast to remove the wreckage, but the waves are faster. All the Outer Banks collapse videos this week show debris spreading far and wide. 

I've seen a lot of talk about people being dumb to build houses right on the water. But the houses that just collapsed in North Carolina actually used to be at least a block or two inland from the beach. 

One person who commented on Barley's video said they rented the house that collapsed a year ago. They said at the time, the house seemed quite stable, despite a strong storm they experiences while staying there. 

Rising sea levels inevitably change the shape of the seacoast, and this is what you get. 

In North Carolina, a 2024 report stated that 750 of nearly 8,800 oceanfront structures are at risk from erosion. Dealing with this is expensive. Reinforcing the shore with dredged sand or rock is expensive. So is using state or federal funds to buy out the threatened homes and demolish them before the waves do. 

We're going to see more and more of this, not just in North Carolina, but up and down the East Coast as those sea levels rise and storms get more intense with climate change. Meanwhile, people are still flocking to the seacoast. 

This is going to be part of a very costly depressing future. 

VIDEO

Video of a house collapsing into the water Thursday in Buxton, North Carolina and then gradually disintegrating . Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Humberto, Imelda Find Love After All In A New World Of Category 5 Hurricanes

Weakening Hurricane Humberto, right, and strengthening
Hurricane Imelda, of the Southeast U.S. coast in this
mornings satellite photo. High clouds extending all
the way to New England are the warm "exhaust" 
from the storms. The two hurricanes will 
head east out to sea. 

Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda continue to foster their close relationship in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, now pretty far offshore of the United States.  

I painted the two very close to each other tropical systems as a sort of tumultuous couple in my Saturday post. One of many guesses were that Humberto would accelerate away leaving a jilted Imelda to wander near the U.S. coastline. 

But, instead, they worked things out. Humberto is tugging Imelda along for a cruise across the Atlantic Ocean.

That comes as a big relief of the United States, because it means no landfall, no big flood, no disaster . Instead, the Southeast is just seeing relatively minor coastal effects like rain, gusty, non-damaging winds and some rough surf and rip currents. 

It turns out Humberto and Imelda were made for each other.

They are incredibly close together by tropical storm standards, with only 580 miles separating them as of yesterday. In the past only nine pairs of tropical storms or hurricanes have come as close or closer to each other as Humberto and Imelda, according to meteorologist Michael Lowry. 

Imelda is now swept up in the atmospheric steering currents created by Humberto and both are heading northeastward together out into the open Atlantic. Both will eventually die in the cold waters out there. 

Before that could happen, Imelda strengthened into a hurricane this morning with top winds of 75 mph. It could achieve winds of 100 mph within a day or two. Imelda is expected to pass near Bermuda Wednesday night or Thursday morning, so they could receive quite a blow.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto is to the northeast of Imelda and tugging her along. Humberto was briefly a Category 5 storm with winds of 160 mph. But as of this morning, it was down to 100 mph. Hurricanes are like big chimneys.

Warm air is pushed upward into the upper atmosphere.  The "exhaust" from the Imelda's chimney is helping to suppress Humberto's strength.  Also, strong upper level winds caused in part by the atmospheric chaos created by two big storms is also weakening Humberto by stripping its intense thunderstorms away from its center. 

You could see the "exhaust" from Imelda on satellite photos yesterday and this morning.  

And overhead here in Vermont. That warm air belching from hurricanes often takes the form of high thin cirrus clouds. Those thin clouds that went south to north over Vermont yesterday afternoon and evening, and produced another nice sunset, was part of the exhaust plume from Imelda. 

That Humberto reached Category 5 status before its tango with Imelda is disconcerting, since these Category 5 monsters are becoming more frequent in the Atlantic Ocean. Category 5 hurricanes are the worst of the worst, with top wind speeds of at least 156 mph. 

Humberto was the 12th Atlantic Category 5 hurricane in the last decade, and the fourth in the past two years. Beryl and Milton were Category 5s last year, and this year we had Erin and Humberto. Unlike last year's Category 5s, neither storm bothered the United States all that much.  

Hurricane season is not over, and there could be a couple or few more tropical storms or hurricanes between now and the end of November. However, the National Hurricane Center says they don't expect any new tropical storms to form over the next week or so.  

Humberto And Imelda Continue Their Dance; Will Carolinas Escape Trouble?

As pot this morning, Hurricane Humberto to the right
is a classic, intense hurricane. Meanwhile, that elongated
cluster of clouds in eastern Cuba and the Bahamas
will become Tropical Storm Imelda, Click on this
photo to make it bigger and easier to see.

The Southeast continues to watch super powerful Hurricane Humberto and what as of early this morning was still soon to be Tropical Storm Imelda. 

The news is cautiously optimistic for the Carolinas as early hints take what will be Imelda a little further offshore than previously forecast.  

The reason: Hurricane Humberto is by far the dominant one in this relationship.  It achieved Category 5 status Saturday with top winds of 160 mph.  Category 5s used to be relatively rare, but they seem to have gotten more common.

Hotter water brought on by climate change is powering up many more hurricanes to Category 5 than we used to see.

 This hasn't been a particularly busy Atlantic hurricane season so far, and yet this is the second Category 5 of the year. Hurricane Erin reached that status in August.

Humberto was marginally weaker early this morning with top winds of 155 mph, so still wicked powerful. 

Since Humberto is so strong, compared to relatively weak Imelda, it will have more influence over the situation. Imelda is still forecast to move northward through the Bahamas parallel to the Florida east coast today, through Monday into Tuesday. 

Imelda didn't strengthen into a tropical storm Saturday as some forecasts indicated. But it was getting better organized just off the northeast coast of Cuba early this morning so today will be the dawn of Tropical Storm Imelda. I guess she didn't want to be a Saturday baby or something. 

The water north of Cuba and toward the Bahamas is quite warm, and that will fuel Imelda.  Meteorologists think it will manage to become a hurricane by around late Monday night or Tuesday morning. 

Imelda will still be weaker than big bad Humberto, though. probably will manage to become a hurricane by around late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Between the influence of Humberto and the fact a weather disturbance over the interior southeastern United States won't be able to draw Imelda toward the coast, it's looking a bit safer for the Carolinas, and Georgia, and even Florida for that matter. 

Instead, the best guess is by midweek, Imelda will slow down, and take a turn to the northeast, and follow big Humberto into the north Atlantic, where both will eventually die in the cold water up there. 

That's not to say the Southeast coast is completely out of the woods. A few forecasts still bring Imelda close to or even on the coast, which would be a mess, but most keep it offshore. 

Even if forecast is accurate and Imelda lingers offshore, it will probably come close enough to send heavy rain bands and gusty winds into coastal areas of South Carolina and parts of North Carolina. And maybe Georgia and coastal Florida. 

Imelda could also bring some storm surges and rough seas to the Southeast coastline. Because it will be moving so slowly, it'll have a lot of time to pound and erode the beaches.

Plus, remember, Humberto is still out there and is a monster. Much like Erin in August, it will send swells and rough surf to the entire East Coast to augment what Imelda plans to do. 

We might be lucking out with our unfriendly couple Humberto and Imelda in that the U.S. avoids another direct hit by a hurricane. The two storms will cause trouble for us, but thankfully, probably no cataclysm. We don't need another one. 

No guarantees, but it's possible a hurricane might not make landfall in the United States this year. It's slightly past the peak of hurricane season, and there's plenty of time for tropical trouble in October. But so far, unlike the devastation of recent years, the U.S. might get a break from hurricanes. 

With all the other weather and climate disasters this year - and there has been many of them - along with the nation's political instability, we'll take any break we can.  

Hurricane Humberto, Soon-To-Be Tropical Storm Imelda Begin Their Dangerous Dance

This morning's satellite phot shows powerful 
Hurricane Humberto spinning gracefully on the
right side of the photo, while what should become
Tropical Storm Imelda struggles to organize
near northeastern Cuba. 

The Carolinas, Georgia and Virginia are now on alert for that dance we told you about the other day between Hurricane Humberto and what will soon be Tropical Storm Imelda. 

They're going to be too close to each other, which means they might do weird things, like tumultuous romantic couples do. The two storms might try rotating around each other, or one will pull the other in odd directions or one of them might stall, you never know. 

This is a HUGE forecast headache for everybody, mostly because so much is at stake.  This situation has the potential to cause immense, life-threatening floods in the Carolinas.   

Following what has become a very common trend in Atlantic hurricanes, Humberto in the past couple of days blew up from a humble tropical storm to a Category 4 monster, with top wind speeds of 145 mph. It's possible it will end up as another Category 5 in the next day or so.

As of this morning, Humberto was churning a good distance - 375 miles or so - northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 

The good news in this messy scenario is Humberto will stay well offshore of the East Coast. A landfall would be devastating for a hurricane of this strength. So at least we avoid that. 

If not for wannabe Imelda, this situation would be very much like big powerful Hurricane Erin in August. Humberto will expand as it heads northwestward, then northward, then out to sea. It would throw some dangerous rip currents, and some coastal flooding here and there up and down the East Coast. 

IMELDA INTERFERES

But the East Coast is not out of the woods, thanks to Wannabe Imelda. As of early this morning, the center of what should become Tropical Storm Imelda was near the northeastern coast of Cuba. 

It might already be a tropical storm by the time you read this, because this thing was on the cusp of becoming one as of dawn Saturday. 

Early guesses is it will move northward through the Bahamas through early Tuesday, parallel to the Florida coast. 

But that's something of a guess, considering Humberto will also be lurking nearby, like a fickle Latin lover with his eyes on Imelda. 

By Monday morning, Imelda will probably be somewhere over the Bahamas while big, fat Humberto makes its closest approach to Imelda to its east. 

Because Humberto is so strong, it's probably going to be the boss in its relationship with Wannabe Imelda .The trouble is, Humberto isn't exactly being clear on what he's going to do with Imelda.

What follows is a scenario a lot of forecasters have settled on, at least as of Saturday morning. Definitely expect both changes to the hurricane predictions forecast and some surprises. The relationship between Humberto and Imelda could become soap opera-level tumultuous. 

THE TROPICAL TELENOVELA

At first, on Sunday and Monday, the two storms would roughly move in tandem toward the north or northwest, like a bride and groom walking down the aisle. 

Then Humberto would part ways, accelerating to the Northeast. That might tug Imelda east a little bit, as if it wanted to chase after Humberto. ("Please!!! Come back!!!,"  I can imagine Imelda wailing).

The tug east would be great as it might prevent a United States landfall. There would still be heavy rain, flooding, coastal surges, wind, that sort of thing. Bad for sure, but not a worst  case scenario.

But Humberto might do other things. It might initially tug at Imelda, but then leave it sitting there like a jilted date, just offshore of the Carolinas.  That would keep dumping and dumping rain on the eastern Carolinas, causing yet another unwanted catastrophic flood there. 

Unlike Helene last year, the big flood, if it happens, would mostly but maybe not completely avoid the mountains of western North Carolina. 

Or, after Humberto departs, Imelda might wander indecisively and erratically off the U.S Southeast Coast, maybe looking for another hurricane to hook up with. 

A wild card is we don't know how strong Imelda will get. If it remains a relatively weak tropical storm, Imelda would likely be more obedient to Humberto. If it develops into a stronger hurricane, Imelda might get annoyed at misogynistic Humberto and pull a surprise of her own. 

Then, all bets are off on what Imelda might do. 

I guess we just need to do what we do with all soap operas and telenovelas. Just sit and wait for the next  episode. Annoyed meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are probably taking a cue from Carol Burnett and calling this mess between Humberto and Imelda "As The Stomach Turns."

VERMONT EFFECTS

Pretty much the only easy part of the hurricane forecast is how all this is going to affect us here in Vermont. The answer is: It won't.

Which means our drought will start to reintensify.

Some scattered showers Friday afternoon and evening were the icing on Thursday's welcome, delightful, soggy cake. For instance, a brief downpour dumped another 0.12 inches on Burlington.

While our tropical drama plays out far to our south, strong high pressure will park itself overhead. Some clouds might come in this afternoon and evening as a disturbance zips by to our south but no rain will come of it. 

Sunday and Monday and probably Tuesday look dry and warm and sunny.  Highs in the warmer valleys could touch 80 degrees, which is unusual but not unheard of for this time of year.

Humberto - far offshore by midweek - will be one of a few atmospheric factors that should pull even stronger, and cooler high pressure down from east of Hudson Bay later in the week. That will probably re-introduce the chance of frost for a couple mornings before warm, sunny weather returns afterwards.

It still looks like our next chance of rain in Vermont won't come along until October 9 or so.  

Dancing Hurricanes? Two Tropical Systems Off Southeast U.S. Coast Could Get Weird

Tropical storm Humberto, the blotch on the right
and what might become Tropical Storm Imelda, the
blotch of clouds near the center of the satellite
photo, are too close to each other. They might
end up dancing around each other in a circle,
which experts call the Fujiwhara effect. 

This weekend and early next week, we might see two hurricanes, or at least a couple tropical storms, do an odd do-si-do off the southeast U.S Coast.  

In essence, the two systems might participate in a meteorological dance craze known as the Fujiwhara.

 Sounds fun, but it's a horrible headache for meteorologists that need to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes. 

It's also a complicated set up. Kind of like if the dance was designed for advanced performers like Derek Hough and not amateurs like the rest opus. 

HOW IT'S WORKING

The trouble comes from what is now Tropical Storm Humberto, which at 11 a.m. this morning was in the middle of the tropical Atlantic, well northeast of the Leeward Islands. 

Humberto's top winds were only 50 mph as of 11 a.m., but the storm is expected to grow into a hurricane -possibly a rather powerful one - by Sunday or Monday. 

By then, Humberto is expected to be heading toward the northwest, well northeast of the Bahamas. 

That's an iffy forecast, thanks to another tropical disturbance starting to get going near the Dominican Republic. That thing is expected to move toward the northwest as well and develop into Tropical Storm Imelda. 

Wannabe Imelda would then move toward and into the Bahamas over the next few days, turning into a tropical storm or even hurricane. 

In the grand scheme of things, Humberto and wannabe Imelda will get pretty close to each other, at least in the opinion of our tropical storms. 

 That's where the Fujiwhara effect, or dance starts

The two storms find a spot halfway between the pair, and they rotate around that spot. CNN explains it better:

"Think about it like the final round of musical chairs: Two kids circle the same chair until the music stops. The Fujiwhara effect describes that dance, playing out on a much bigger scale."

Tropical storms and hurricanes are loners. They don't like each other, and don't want to be close together. Things get weird, much like a lot of bad dates do. 

If one storm is much weaker than the other, the more lame one might get absorbed into the stronger one. Every once in a great while, two hurricanes of similar strengths might become one bigger one, but that rarely happens.

More often, the storms will - I don't know - get dizzy and go off in opposite or strange or unexpected directions. 

That's why the fine folks at the National Hurricane Center might be dreading the next few days. There's probably going to be surprises. We don't even know yet whether the two storms will dance the Fujiwhara. (Thought as an aside, I think a choreographer should design a Fujiwhara for humans).

The best guess, at least for now, is that Humberto, which should turn into a hurricane, might or might not briefly dance with wannabe Imelda, then head off to the northeast, missing the United States much like Hurricanes Erin and Gabrielle did. 

The future of Wannabe Imelda is more iffy. We don't know whether it will become a full -fledged hurricane, but it might. Some projections bring it to a landfall in the Carolinas early next week.

Who knows? Expect lots of changes to the forecast.

By the way, the Fujiwhara effect is named after Japanese meteorologist Sakuhei Fujiwhara, who published a 1921 paper theorizing two storms would dance around each other. Once satellite views became common, we learned that the Fujiwhara dance exists among tropical storms and hurricanes.  

Off the dance floor, meanwhile,  Hurricane Gabrielle wants to avoid the whole drama and is getting out of Dodge - fast. 

The other day, it peaked as a huge hurricane with top winds of 140 mph while it was east of Bermuda. 

Now, Gabrielle is much weaker as it races eastward in pretty much the opposite direction of Humberto. Gabrielle's forward speed was 32 mph as of late this morning.  That's traffic ticket territory for a tropical system.  

Until now, Gabrielle hasn't hit any land, so it hasn't been that big a deal, despite its strength. However, Gabrielle is forecast to lash the Azores with hurricane force winds later today or tonight.

Gabrielle will finally run out of steam early next week over or near Portugal.

After A Weird Peak Hurricane Season Calm, Atlantic Ocean Getting Busy.

Hurricane Gabrielle has a classic hurricane look
in a satellite photo taken this afternoon

A very odd spell with no tropical storm activity at the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean is over, big time. 

There's a strong hurricane out there now, and there's two more wannabe hurricanes or tropical storms bubbling out there. 

Luckily, there's no real threat to the United States coastline, at least for several days at least. 

Let's go to the hurricane first.

HURRICANE GABRIELLE 

Highest sustained winds in Hurricane Gabrielle reached 120 mph late this morning as it headed slowly northward from a position about 180 miles southeast of Bermuda. 

This qualifies Gabrielle as a major hurricane, because major hurricanes need winds of at least 111 mph. 

It's only the second hurricane of the season, given we had that long quiet period. The trend this year is either big hurricane or wimpy little tropical storms.  All the storms except Hurricane Erin were pretty wimpy, pretty brief tropical storms. 

The exception was Hurricane Erin, which reached Category 5 status in August, them passed well off the U.S. East Coast. It was big enough to cause coastal flooding and beach erosion and dangerous surf, but it thankfully missed us. 

Gabrielle will miss us, too. 

It began its first few days as a wimp struggling with dry air and strong upper level winds. It could have ended up as another lame, small tropical storm.  But in the past three days or so, Gabrielle has really blossomed into a powerhouse. It escaped the dry air, strong overhead winds slackened and warm water fueled the storm.

On satellite pictures today, Gabrielle was a classic looking strong hurricane. It had a distinct eye, with a symmetrical swirl of dense clouds around that center.  It looks like Gabrielle has a chance to strengthen for a few more hours this afternoon and tonight before a weakening trend sets in. 

It'll start accelerating to the northeast and east tomorrow after throwing some gusty outer showers at Bermuda. It's no threat to land, except to the Azores in the eastern Atlantic. It might still be a hurricane when it gets near those islands Thursday night or Friday morning. 

Gabreille will start a weakening trend tomorrow as it encounters colder ocean water and stronger upper level winds 

It will have turned into a nontropical but still powerful storm northwest of Spain by Saturday. The storm could menace the UK as a former hurricane toward Sunday, but we're not sure yet. 

The United States will, like in the case of Erin, see some rough surf and rip currents because of Gabrielle, but that's it for us. But there's other things starting to stir out there.

OTHER SUSPECTS

An area of showers and storms in the central tropical Atlantic is slowly getting better organized, and forecasters think it will develop into Tropical Storm Humberto late this week as it heads northwestward. 

No promises yet, but it's beginning to look like wannabe Humberto might very roughly follow the tracks of Erin and Gabrielle and stay far away from the U.S. East Coast. We'll get a better confirmation of whether or not this is true later in the week, but so far I'm not too worried about this one. Even it develops into a full-fledged hurricane, which seems very possible.

There's another disturbance west of wannabe Humberto that's currently closer to the northern Leeward Islands. It's possible it could turn into Tropical Storm Imelda somewhere over the southwest Atlantic Ocean east of Florida, maybe in the Bahamas. 

Because this one will end up so much closer to the U.S. if it starts to develop late this week, as forecasters expect. Wannabe Imelda could turn into a threat if it develops starting late this week. Nobody is sure on this one yet.  It's nothing to worry about yet, but people in Florida and the East Coast  out to monitor this baby starting this upcoming weekend. 

 

No Atlantic Hurricanes Now At Peak Of Season: How Did We Get So Lucky?

Hurricane Erin is so far the only Atlantic hurricane
this year. We've entered a very odd period of no
tropical storms at what should be the
peak of hurricane season. 

Each year, on September 10, there is usually at least one tropical storm or hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.  

After all, today's date is the statistical peak of hurricane season. This year: Crickets.  

For a few days now, the main map on the National Hurricane Center map has stated. "Tropical activity is not expected during the next 7 days."

This is the first September 10 since 2016 without a tropical storm or hurricane. Only a handful of September 10s in the past half century without an Atlantic tropical storm.

This year, the last time there was a tropical storm was the day weak Tropical Storm Fernand died out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean without hurting anyone. 

The fact there is no hurricane currently in the Atlantic to menace anyone is great news. We've had enough of that in recent years. But meteorologists are sort of scratching their heads as to why there are no tropical systems out there.

Water temperatures where hurricanes would form are well above average. Since hurricanes thrive on warm water, this should encourage these storms. Right now, it's not. 

The problem for hurricanes is probably a large area of stable, dry air over the Atlantic.  You usually get the dry air early in the season but the atmosphere gets more moist by September. So far, that really hasn't happened all that much. 

Hurricane Erin did take advantage of increased moisture last month, but it's gotten dry again. There were concerns a system in the eastern Atlantic could form into a tropical storm a few days ago. But it ran into that dry air and completely fell apart.

We are falling behind normal in a year that was expected to give us slightly more tropical storms and hurricanes than usual. Six named storms have formed this year, which is two fewer than average by September 9. And only one of them strengthened into a hurricane. 

This is the second year on a row there was almost no tropical storm activity near the peak of hurricane season. Last year, there were no named storms between August 13 and September 8, which was the first time since 1967 there was nothing in that period of time. 

Of course, things took a tragic turn afterwards, later in the season with Hurricanes Helene and Milton. 

As of yesterday, we've had 16 days in the Atlantic with no named storms. That looks like it might go to at least 23 days, as nothing is forecast through next Monday. 

There were also quiet periods during peak season in 2020 and 2022. That's leading to speculation that maybe climate change is messing with hurricanes in ways we hadn't realized. We do know that when hurricanes form, they've tended to get stronger as they've been supercharged by extra warm Atlantic waters.

But maybe climate change somehow reduces the number of storms that do form, at least near the peak of the season. We don't really know why.  

One theory is the lapse rate - how fast the air temperature falls as you gain altitude.  The thunderstorms that power developing tropical storms need a steep lapse rate, meaning the temperature decreases sharply with height. 

There generally isn't as big a difference than usual this year between surface temperatures and readings many thousands of feet overhead. Is climate change doing that?  Researchers probably want to look into it. 

\As Bob Henson and Jeff Masters write in Yale Climate Connections, a deep dip in the jet stream that's been contributing to drought here in Vermont would have helped steer tropical storms or hurricanes away from the U.S. over the past couple weeks had they formed. 

Now, the pattern is changing with a northward bulge in the jet stream expected to form over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic Ocean. If a hurricane were to form over the next couple weeks, that pattern would make it a bit more likely for a tropical storm or hurricane to head toward the United States.

So we should hope the hurricane drought continues. 

Last year, as mentioned, the hurricane season perked up in dramatic fashion after the midseason lull. In 2022 the lull came a little later in the season, after devastating Hurricane Ian.  There were several tropical storms and a couple hurricanes after Ian, but those mostly formed late in the season - October and November. 

I guess all we can do this year is whatever is keeping hurricanes from forming in the Atlantic keeps it up. Then again, up here in drought-stricken Vermont, I wouldn't mind the heavy rainfall from a dying tropical storm.