Tropical Storm Eduoard Drowns Part Of Texas; ; But Storms Lacking In Atlantic; Pacific Ocean Is Wild, Though

Although the Atlantic Ocean is quiet, hurricanes are
spinning up frequently in the very warm Pacific Ocean.
from left to right, Hurricane Lowell south of Hawaii,
Hurricane Karina in the middle and Hurricane Marie
off the west coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall as a 60 mph tropical storm just east of the mouth of the Sabine River in far southwestern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon.  

It might have not been the strongest tropical system ever, but it showed remarkable staying power as it moved inland. Tropical storms tend to fall apart quickly once they move inland. Edouard did not.

Nearly 24 hours after making landfall, it still kept its general shape. Wind advisories for gusts up to 40 mph were in effect two days after landfall. 

The real problem, though, was the flooding. The storm dumped 18 to 24 inches on some areas of East Texas. In one town, 27.53 inches of rain fell. This all forced  dozens of rescues from flooded cars, homes, even an assisted living facility. 

So it was a destructive mess, but at least it wasn't as bad as a full hurricane.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Edouard was a persistent little devil. But this is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. You'd expect full-blown hurricanes this time of year, but nothing. We've had five tropical storms this year in the Atlantic, and none made it to hurricane status. 

Three of the storms - Arthur, Bertha and Edouard - affected the western Gulf Coast. 

The United States is enjoying a very quiet hurricane season so far thanks to the big giant El Nino that has developed eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Ninos affect weather patterns around the world.

In the Atlantic Ocean, El Nino creates strong upper level winds. Tropical storms start out as clumps of thunderstorms over the tropical oceans.  The strong upper level winds rips those storms apart. Or, if a tropical storm or hurricane has formed and then encounters those strong winds way high up, the thunderstorms in the tropical system either get ripped apart or get tugged away from the storm's center, causing a weakening trend.

Unless things change dramatically in the Atlantic Ocean soon, this could easily be among the quietest hurricane seasons on record. Which is a nice switch from the slew of busy, destructive seasons we've had in recent years. 

The East Coast of the United States is being spared a bad hurricane season, but we're not out of the woods. We could always have a late season hurricane. And El Nino could well create extreme late autumn and winter storms that would cause their own damage. 

PACIFIC OCEAN

On the other hand, Pacific Ocean hurricanes love El Ninos. 

The ocean is oddly warm during El Ninos, and upper level winds are light. Perfect conditions for incubating hurricanes. 

This year, hurricanes have been forming one after another in the eastern Pacific Ocean and then heading west.

Hurricane Lowell is currently the most concerning of the bunch. It was spinning several hundred miles south of Hawaii. It's was a major hurricane with winds of 140 mph. Meteorologists think it will turn a sharp turn north and eventually pass perilously close to the western Hawaiian islands. However, that forecast is still really uncertain, so stay tuned. 

As of Thursday morning, Hurricane Karina was churned well east of the Hawaii with top winds of 115 mph..

.Hurricane Marie was several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. It had winds of 90 mph and was strengthening as it headed northwestward away from Mexico

Another tropical storm could form off the southwest coast of Mexico in the coming days.  

Updates On Vermont's Very Soggy Saturday, The Return Of Summer, And "Phantom Hurricanes" That Might Not Be Entirely Phantom

National Weather Service forecast map for Saturday's
rain. Dark green indicates at least an inch of rain. Yellow
means at least 1.5 inches. 

A little more rain than expected fell in northwest Vermont Thursday. Not enough to make a difference, really, but some of us were surprised by brief heavier evening showers. But at least parts of the Champlain Valley were treated to a spectacular rainbow just before sunset. 

The rest of Vermont had very little rain yesterday, as expected,

Today is the calm before the next soggy storm. Most of us woke up to cloudy skies this morning. There were even a a few showers near the Canadian border. (It rained briefly here in St. Albans, Vermont shortly after 8 a.m. today).

But you will see more and more breaks in the overcast as the day wears on.  I suppose there could be a couple more showers, but they'd be light and isolated, No biggie.

SATURDAY:

Our soggy Saturday nor'easter is still on schedule. 

I mentioned in yesterday's post that the forecast track of the storm was "windshield wipering" back and forth between a track northward right along the New England coast, or more inland going northward across New Hampshire.

The forecasters yesterday were leaning slightly toward a more eastern track, though some models were still insisting on a more inland path.  An eastern path would have meant a little less rain in Vermont.

As of this morning, it's looking like the forecasts for the nor'easter to go right up through central New Hampshire on Saturday were the correct ones. 

That means expected rainfall totals in Vermont have gone back up. Right now - and this could still change a little - almost everybody in the Green Mountain State except maybe the immediate central and northern Champlain Valley will receive at least an inch of rain.

Cities like Burlington and St. Albans would still get a soaking with at least three quarters of an inch. Elsewhere in Vermont, some places will get an inch and a half, and I wouldn't be surprised if a couple spot clocked in at a little over two inches.

Flash flood guidance this morning says it would take 2 to 2.5 inches of rain within six hours to begin to produce flash flooding. However, it will probably take a good 12 hours or more tomorrow for even those few spots in Vermont to receive two inches of rain. 

So flooding is very unlikely in Vermont. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does put central and eastern Vermont  - along with most of New Hampshire and Maine -in a zone with a marginal risk of flooding on Saturday.  In this case, I think that just means there could be minor ponding on roads.

 Rivers and brooks and streams across Vermont will definitely rise and become swift again even if they don't go into flood stage. That means kayaking and such on them will be dangerous for at least a few days. Fishing enthusiasts should be careful not to fall in. 

Saturday's storm will add water to the already very damp Vermont soil, which could help set us up for flash flooding later if we get a lot of torrential thunderstorms in June.   Of course, we have no idea yet whether that will happen or not, so just put that on the back burner for now. 

SUMMER TREND

Sunday is June 1, the start of meteorological summer. For ease of record keeping, most climatologists regard summer as the period from June 1 through August 31,

As previously mentioned,  the first day of June will not feel like summer at all. Sunday will feature mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the 50s to near 60, breezy north winds and maybe a few light showers. Brrrrr!  

There could even be a little snow again atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire.  I think the summits of the Green Mountains might be just a wee bit too warm for snow on Sunday. But not by much.  

But don't worry! Summer is on its way. And soon. 

We'll start a sharp warming trend beginning Monday. By mid to late week, we're up in the 80s for afternoon highs, and you'll start to feel the humidity in the air.  We might also start to see summer time afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday, but that's less certain. 

PHANTOM HURRICANES

This morning's GFS (American) computer models
shows a powerful hurricane hitting the Gulf 
Coast on or around June 10. I virtually guarantee
this WON'T happen, but the models MIGHT
be sniffing out some possible tropical
activity in the Gulf of Caribbean toward
the middle of the month. We'll see. 

For the past several days, I've noticed the American computer model known as the GFS keeps indicating hurricanes popping up toward the end of its forecast range, usually two weeks in advance. 

Sometimes these forecast hurricanes are near Florida, other times in the Gulf of Mexico, sometimes near Texas, sometimes going up the East Coast, like yesterday morning's run. 

This morning it has a powerful hurricane hitting Biloxi Mississippi on June 10, then dumping another epic flood on Helene-ravaged North Carolina.

Relax. It's not going to happen.  These GFS "phantom hurricanes" is a quirk of the American computer modeling. In late May and June especially, it keeps coming up with these "phantom" hurricanes  in the final days of its two week predictions. 

Still, it's a reminder that the hurricane season official starts on Sunday. And since the model has been so consistently popping off hurricanes in recent model runs, it's an indication that the models might be sniffing out some sort of tropical storm development somewhere in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico around mid-June.

If a tropical storm forms - a big if - it's very likely it wouldn't be an enormous hurricane, like the cataclysmic Helene or Milton last year. But it's possible - not definite - we could see some sort of soggy tropical storm or even Category 1 hurricane menace somewhere along the southern U.S. coast.

This sort of thing has happened before in June. In fact, Tropical Storm Agnes in June, 1972 ended up unleashing one of the worst floods and most deadly floods on record in much of Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia and Maryland.   There's no reason a damaging June tropical storm couldn't happen again.   

Just A Couple Small Hiccups In Very Long Vermont Dry, Sunny Spell

A blue sky morning today in St. Albans, Vermont. Get
used to it, as it will last much of the month. Although
every once in awhile a few clouds or wildfire smoke
and haze could intrude. 

Vermont's long stretch of warm, fair weather is just beginning now, and all the forecasts indicate this will stick around for a long time.  

September so far in the Green Mountain State has turned out to be a little on the cool side. 

Through yesterday, the month was running about three degrees cooler than the "new normal" in Burlington. That "new normal" is warmer than decades ago, so by historical standards, the first week of the month was pretty average.

That will change. 

Starting this afternoon, temperatures will start to run warmer than average for this time of year. Those temperatures will stay above normal for probably at least the next ten days, probably more. Quite possibly through the end of the month, in fact.

Despite the cool start, September, 2024 in Vermont will go down as yet another warm one. 

If you like warm, dry weather, this will be your month. But as always, there's a few hiccups thrown in. 

Hints of Humidity

 The humidity has been incredibly comfortable the past couple days. In fact, dew points - a rough measure of how humid it feels out there - hit the rock bottom 30s on Tuesday. 

It usually starts to feel a bit sticky when the dew point reaches 60 or so. It does seem like we will have more of a humid feel to the air starting tomorrow and lasting who knows how long. An ultra-weak system from Canada might temporarily drop the humidity to comfortable levels over the weekend, but those hints of mugginess should return next week.

This won't be super oppressive. Those dew points should rise into the low to mid 60s, enough to make it feel like summer. The humidity will also keep most nights somewhat on the warm. I guess it's a little soon to take down the window air conditioner. 

Fog and Sunshine Interruptions

Despite the remarkable strength and staying power of high pressure parking itself nearly overhead for days on end, tiny little disturbance should make inroads from time to time.  You might see somewhat cloudy periods here and there. One such little thing will come through tonight and part of tomorrow, which will interrupt the sun at times. Perhaps an isolated spot could even see a couple raindrops. But that's it. 

Much more importantly, this type of calm, mostly clear high pressure is a recipe for dense morning fog, especially this time of year. 

As the nighttime air cools, warm ground and water helps moisture condense into fog, especially in the valleys. Early morning commuters will need to be careful most mornings. Probably for the rest of the month at least. 

Wildfire Smoke

Record heat in the West as greatly intensified wildfires across California, Nevada and other states. Some of that smoke aloft will drift our way, so skies could become hazy at times once again. The amount of smoke in the air will wax and wane over the coming week or two. However, most of it will be aloft, and not so much near the surface. So, knock on wood, air quality will remain OK down here where we breathe. 

Tropical Storm Shield

This big, fat, stuck high pressure over New England and southeast Canada will deflect any tropical storms,  hurricanes or former tropical storms away from us during the next couple weeks. Hurricane Francine, set to slam into the Louisiana coast this morning, will at first head northeastward once it comes inland.

Often, that would eventually mean a good rainstorm for us. In this case, though, the remnants of Francine will smack into the high pressure and get trapped in or near Arkansas and die. No problem for us. 

There are some signs some sort of subtropical storm or tropical storm might form off the Southeast coast next week.  Some forecasts have it heading inland into the Carolinas.  Again, though, early indications are the high pressure will hold firm, keeping that potential system away from us. 

So bottom line, enjoy!

Running Out Of Atlantic Tropical Storm Names Again?

Hurricane Lee off the U.S. East Coast on Sept. 14.
There's been a near record number of tropical
storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic this year. 

 It might not seem it, but it's been an incredibly busy tropical Atlantic hurricane season so far. 

At the moment, Tropical Storm Phillippe is wandering aimlessly in the central Atlantic. Tropical Storm Rina also formed way out there the other day. 

Another trailing system has a decent shot at building into a tropical storm.  The hurricane season lasts through November. And there's now only four names left on the 2023 hurricane or tropical storm list: Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney. 

It doesn't seem like it's been that busy because most storms have mercifully not made landfall.  So far, only Hurricanes Idalia and Lee, and Tropical Storm Ophelia have caused much trouble in the United States. Yeah, they were all bad, but it could have been a lot worse. 

Most tropical storms and hurricanes have stayed out over water. Many of them moved north into colder water and petered out without causing any harm. 

If we run out of hurricane names this year, it will be third time that's happened. 

The first time the Atlantic Ocean basin ran out of names was the horrid season of 2005. That's the year that brought us the huge disasters Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, along with other destructive land falling hurricanes in the United States. 

In 2005, they resorted to using Greek names to deal with the last six tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.

Then came 2020 with a total of 30 named storms.  The National Hurricane Center ran through their name list early that season, resorting to the last of the names on the official list with Tropical Storm Wilfred on September 17, barely past the halfway point of the hurricane season. 

The rest of the 2020 season featured a confusing list of Greek named storms, including Delta, Zeta, Eta and Theta.

The whole point of naming tropical storms and hurricanes is to avoid public confusion. If two storms with distinct names happen at the same time, like this year's Hurricane Lee and Margo, it's easy to tell which one is which, and which hurricane you should worry about, and which one you can safely ignore. 

To solve the Greek letter problem if there are too many hurricanes and tropical storms, the World Meteorological has come up with a "B" list of sorts, names to use in the event we run out. So, if we get past Whitney in the Atlantic this year, we'll then go with Adria, Braylen, Caridad etc.   

It's a little odd that there have been so many tropical storms this year.  We're now in an El Nino pattern, which tends to squelch Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes due to strong upper level winds.

Those winds have materialized due to El Nino. But the Atlantic Ocean is at record warm levels, which is jet fuel for wannabe tropical storms. So, tropical storms are forming left and right. The strong upper level winds are keeping many of these storms, like the current Phillippe and Rina on the weak side, so I guess we can be happy for that. 

 

Saturday Lee Update: For Vermont, More Entertaining Than Dangerous

 If we have to be affected by a hurricane or tropical storm in Vermont, this is the way to do it. 

The setting sun shining into high clouds streaming off 
from Hurricane Lee Friday evening lit up 
the skies over St. Albans, Vermont. 

What was once Hurricane Lee, as expected, threw a bunch of high clouds overhead in Vermont Saturday, leading to a kinda interesting sky during much of the day. That led to a gorgeous sunset.

There is a chance we might have a repeat nice sunset this evening. It depends upon how Lee's shield of high clouds that's over us now behaves. 

Lee is not even considered a tropical system anymore.  It does have a warm core, still, which tropical storms have. But on satellite, the clouds with Lee are not circular anymore, but more of a comma shape you see with regular storms. It's also developing a cold and warm front. 

This technicality doesn't matter much on the ground. I don't want to minimize the effects Lee is having on eastern Maine, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick where storm damage is ongoing today from near-hurricane force wind gusts and storm surges.

This won't be as bad up there as Hurricane Fiona last year, but it will still sting.

For us in Vermont, we get off with barely a worry. 

GUSTS ARE COMING

After all the weather drama we've had in Vermont this year, it's nice to see a major weather system not create havoc. Lee might cause some minor inconveniences around here today, but I hardly think this will cause yet another disaster declaration in the Green Mountain State. 

At dawn today, they're barely a breeze in Vermont, thanks to a temperature inversion that often sets up at night. That was mixing out and by mid morning, gusts were ramping up, and will hit the 30 to 40 mph range in many spots across the Green Mountain State.  

 hat's enough to create a few very isolated power outages around the state, but most of us will be fine. 

Gusts in that range are pretty common in Vermont during the winter and usually don't lead to anything noteworthy. But the trees are bare during gusty winter storms in January. 

This time of year, the trees are still leafed out. Each leaf acts like a little sale, pulling trees sideways during gusty weather. That can pull a few trees down. Especially since the ground is still soggy after our awful summer.  It's easier to uproot trees when the soil is wet.

The sharp line between clear skies and a high overcast
from Hurricane Lee was visible over Georgia, Vermont Friday. 

Again, I want to emphasize this won't be that big a deal.  I'm talking isolated, scattered power outages that will be fixed pretty quickly.  You have a really low chance of losing your electricity, and if it happens, it won't last long. 

Like I've said in previous posts, I'd cancel plans to take your boat onto Lake Champlain or other lakes in Vermont. The water will be too choppy and actually kind of dangerous A lake wind advisory is up today, naturally. 

One thing  you might notice if you hit the web page for the National Weather Service in South Burlington. It will look like the radar is lit up with rain.   Actually, some rain is falling from the high overcast that's with us now. But the north winds with Lee are pulling in some dry air, so that rain will keep evaporating well before it hits the ground. 

There might be just a little bit of rain in the Northeast Kingdom, but that's it. 

VERMONT'S "NICE" TROPICAL STORM

Usually, tropical storms and hurricanes are bad news anywhere, including here in Vermont. We only have to look at the catastrophic floods with Tropical Storm Irene in 2011 and the destruction from the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 for examples.

But there's also rare but real precedent for tropical storms that are either harmless for us, like Lee today, or actually do more good than harm locally.   

In August, 2020, Hurricane Isaias made landfall in North Carolina as a hurricane and went up the East Coast as a tropical storm.  All along the way from North Carolina to New England, Isaias let loose with dozens of tornadoes, and flash flooding along the way. 

However, when it got to Vermont, ti was different. The center of Tropical Storm Isaias went literally right over Rutland on the evening of August 4 on its way northward through Vermont to Quebec. 

The tropical storm dumped heavy rain on Vermont, especially the western half of the state. .But a drought was going on at the time, so Tropical Storm Isaias was a rare happy big storm for Vermont. It did cause a few power outages, but we survived, right? 

For Once, A Vermont Rainfall Without A Flood (We Believe). Also Tropical Trouble To Avoid Us, Too

 It's going to rain again in Vermont, and some of it might come down pretty heavily for brief periods. 

This projected path of soon to be Hurricane Franklin
looks like it might threaten us here in New England.
But looks are deceiving. All indications are it will
curve well to our east and not bother us at all. 

For once, though, it doesn't look like we will deal with any flooding. As long as I'm not jinxing it here.

This is going to feel a bit like an autumn storm than a summer one.  It'll cloud up pretty quickly later today and it will get breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. 

Overnight, especially after midnight, it will rain pretty consistently. There might be a rumble of thunder in a few spots, but it won't be anything to get too worked up about. 

Rain will continue into Friday morning, as it looks now, but it will become spottier as the day goes on. 

The fall-like unsettled weather continues all day Friday and through Saturday.  It won't rain all the time, but it will be cloudy and cool, sometimes showery, occasionally drizzly.  You'll really feel like autumn is coming. 

That's not to say we won't have any warm summer weather before autumn really gets here. It's just that we're more prone to cooler temperatures now that we're heading out of August and toward September.

TROPICAL TROUBLE AVOIDING US

Another big of good news with this weather pattern is that the rather weak storminess over us for the next few days should keep any tropical trouble at bay.  Tropical Storm Franklin, having flooded the Dominican Republic this week is heading north into the west-central Atlantic.  

Franklin is expected to strengthen into a hurricane, actually maybe a pretty big one. Of course, we in Vermont would be wary of a northbound hurricane after the wet summer we had. In this case, though, a southward dip in the jet stream that will linger over New England into next week will push Franklin more northeastward. So it will pass safely well east of New England during the middle of next week, and won't affect us at all.

It's possible Franklin could cause trouble in eastern Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, so Environment Canada will be watching that. 

This is so much better than the weather pattern we had in July, which brought us so much flooding. The dip in the jet stream back then was centered over the Great Lakes. That would have steered a storm like Franklin toward us. Not happening this time! 

We're heading into the peak of hurricane season, so expect news of more tropical storms and hurricanes popping up over the next few weeks. There's no telling where they might go. But so far, we in northern New England look blessedly safe from these things. 

As Hilary Floods Subside, Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storms Blossom Quickly

The Atlantic Ocean suddenly blossomed with tropical
storms and potential storms over the weekend. 

 As expected Hurricane Hilary, down to tropical storm status Sunday drenched southern California and surrounding areas with inches of rain. 

Also as expected, there's widespread flooding, mudslides, road washouts, fallen trees and power outages. Unexpectedly, a 5.1 earthquake centered under Ojai, California shook the Los Angeles area. Luckily, the earthquake did not add much to the extensive damage from Hilary. 

Sone of the worst  or most disruptive damage I saw was that both lanes of heavily traveled Interstate 10 near Palm Springs, California was washed out. Traffic was backed up for miles and miles, and it looked like on video a few cars got caught up in in the flooding and mud flows. 

While all eyes were on Hilary, the Atlantic Ocean suddenly blew up with tropical storms. Three tropical storms - Emily, Franklin and Gert quickly formed in the Atlantic tropics and a fourth tropical storm seems set to form as early as today in the Gulf of Mexico.

There's two opposing factors acting in the Atlantic right now. One of them encourages tropical storms, the other discourages them from getting powerful.

The Atlantic Ocean waters overall are at record high temperatures right now.  Tropical storms and hurricanes thrive on warm water - the warmer the better.  That toasty water makes it easier for tropical storms to form, so that's a large reason why we suddenly have so many. 

The opposing factors is El Nino.  That's a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that's well under way right now. It's expected to continue for several months at least. El Nino tends to drive up the world's temperatures. Combined with climate change, El Nino is largely responsible for record heat around the Globe this summer. 

El Nino also tends to increase upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. Those strong high level winds tear apart the thunderstorms that fuel tropical storms and hurricanes, so they can't develop well. 

That so far seems to be tempering the ability for all those storms in the Atlantic from becoming dangerous.  The caveat is if any of the storms wander into an area with lighter winds up high, they can finally blossom big time. Were that to happen near a coastline a rapidly developing hurricane could be scary, as you might imagine.

Tropical storms and hurricanes can also surprise forecasters, so you alway have to keep an eye on them.  So far, though, these storms are not much of a threat, except for one that threatens Hispaniola with heavy rain and another that hasn't quite developed yet in the Gulf of Mexico.

Let's briefly look at each storm:

EMILY: This is the most distant of all the storms, hanging around way, way out in the central Atlantic Ocean far from any land. As of this morning Emily's top winds were 40 mph, so it's barely strong enough to be regarded as a tropical storm.

Those strong upper level El Nino winds are ripping thunderstorms away from its center, and Emily is expected to pretty quickly fizzle out as it moves northwestward then northward in the central Atlantic. I wouldn't worry much at all about this one. 

FRANKLIN: So far, Franklin is the worst of the bunch, though of course it's nothing extreme compared to many Atlantic Ocean monster hurricanes of the past. 

Of course, Franklin isn't even a hurricane, just a tropical storm, given that its top winds are around 50 mph. It's in the central Caribbean Sea, and it's about to turn northward and head to Hispaniola in the next few days.  It threatens to bring heavy rains, flooding and mudslides to that island and to Puerto Rico.

El Nino's upper level winds are affecting Franklin, but not as much as it is for the other systems in the Atlantic. Franklin is not forecast to strengthen much on its way to Hispaniola.  It might end up becoming a hurricane after it gets north of that island at a point far south of Bermuda.

There's a slight chance that Franklin could eventually affect parts of Atlantic Canada in a week or two, but the risk so far appears low. But it bears watching. 

GERT: Tropical Storm Gert is the oldest but lamest of the bunch.  It struggled all day Sunday as a tropical depression, not even strong enough to be called a tropical storm. But its winds managed to increase to a still paltry 40 mph last night, so it got named Tropical Storm Gert. 

Gert was rapidly falling apart this morning, so we can just forget about it

WANNABE HAROLD:  If the storminess in the Gulf of Mexico becomes an actual tropical storm, it will likely be named Harold.

Wannabe Harold looks like it will indeed develop into a tropical storm and start heading westward. It has a good shot at being a threat to southern Texas or northeastern Mexico late in the week

HOW THIS AFFECT US

So far, tropical storms are absolutely no threat to us here in Vermont. Which is good news. After all the flooding we had this summer and the wet ground we have now, the last thing we need is a tropical storm. 

None of the storms I mentioned are any kind of threat to us. Moreover, we should hope the weather pattern we have this week persists through hurricane season.

The northwest flow from southern and central Canada that we have now would tend to push any northward moving hurricane offshore.  

We wouldn't want to have the weather pattern we did in July. That one featured an upper level low to our northwest and a dip in the jet stream over or near the Great Lakes. That pattern would have on occasion drawn a northward moving hurricane or tropical storm toward New England. That wouldn't be good. 

So, despite the clouds and light showers this morning enjoy an otherwise dry week for a change. 

The Tropics; Bonnie On A Two Ocean Cruise; Colin Pulls A Surprise

Tropical Storm Bonnie emerging into the 
Pacific Ocean after crossing Nicaragua from
the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday.

 As we start July, the tropics tend to get a little more active as we ramp up toward the heart of hurricane season in a month or two.

That Wannabe Tropical Storm Bonnie finally got its act together and became official Tropical Storm Bonnie on Friday. It smacked into Nicaragua last night and is dumping heavy rain there. Flooding and mudslides are likely causing big trouble there as I write this. 

Bonnie then did something odd.    Normally, when tropical storms and hurricanes hit Central America or Mexico from the Caribbean Sea, they quickly get torn apart and die over steep mountains. You might get some remnant energy that makes it to the Pacific, and on a few occasions, that might develop into a new Pacific tropical storm.

The western Pacific has different names every year for tropical storms and hurricanes than the Atlantic Ocean. So if remnant energy from a former Atlantic tropical storm gives birth to a new tropical storm in the Pacific, it gets a new name.   

Bonnie is a rare rule breaker.  Bonnie threaded  the needle between mountain ranges as it moved through Nicaragua. It crossed a narrow part of central America that includes large Lake Nicaragua. So it didn't get weaker as fast as it normally would.

Late Saturday morning, Bonnie emerged over the Pacific Ocean as an intact tropical storm.   To remove confusion, Bonnie will keep her name as it moves northwestward.

This is the first tropical storm to pull this Atlantic to Pacific stunt since Otto in 2016. Had Bonnie fallen apart completely, but the storm's left over energy or upper level circulation made it into the Pacific Ocean, it would have been re-named Darby. 

Weak Tropical Storm Colin formed unexpectedly
last night along the South Carolina coast. 

In any event, Bonnie is forecast to move northwestward, staying south and west of Mexico. It could become a hurricane once it's well offshore. 

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Colin was a surprise storm that formed along the coast of South Carolina last night. 

I noticed a suspicious looking swirl of clouds and rain moving off the Georgia coast yesterday. Few expected this swirl to blow up into a tropical storm, especially since atmospheric conditions were not great for development and the center of this little storm was hugging the coast.

But form it did! Still, Colin is not expected to amount to much. Northwesterly winds aloft are pushing the roughest weather with Colin offshore. The fact that Colin is still hugging the coast and those northwesterly high level winds will persist, this thing won't strengthen much more, if at all.

Colin is breaking rules in another way. In much of coastal South Carolina today, Colin was pulling in dry air from the northwest. Because of this, despite the proximity of Colin, it's been a pretty nice beach day for the coast of South Carolina. Not what you'd expect with a tropical storm lurking around you. 

Finally, a cold front heading southward should blow apart what remains of Colin around Monday. 

 

This And That: Vermont Blue Skies; Another Nor'easter to Tropical Storm and Vancouver Tornado

Wall to wall sunshine and deep blue skies over 
West Rutland, Vermont on Sunday. Such bright days 
are relatively are in Vermont in November. 

Wow, yesterday was a spectacular day in Vermont, especially by November standards.

For the second day in a row, most areas had wall to wall sunshine. As mentioned before, that's kind of unusual in this part of the world this time of year. 

If you missed it, you have other chances.. It might not be completely clear the next few days, but the sun will be out.  

The northern half of Vermont was pretty cloudy this morning due to a weak weather disturbance. But things should get clearer this afternoon. 

Another weak system could make things cloudy again later Tuesday afternoon and night. This one could squeeze out a few light showers, but nothing to get excited about. Skies should clear again by Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday will have some sun too, though that large storm in the Great Lakes I mentioned yesterday should start to make inroads with increasing clouds as the day wears on.

Then we get that slug of wind and rain Friday with this storm, and from there we'll settle back into our normal gloomy, cloudy, sprinkly and snowflaky November weather.

VANCOUVER TORNADO

A very rare tornado appears to have hit an area around Vancouver, British Columbia. That's not exactly tornado alley, folks!

A really big waterspout was widely videoed and photographed just off the coast, near a major airport serving the city.  

Screen shot of a likely tornado hitting a golf course in
Vancouver, British Columbia Saturday. That blue glow
on the left is power lines snapping. 

Though not confirmed yet by Environment Canada it looks like the waterspout came ashore as a tornado.  (Environment Canada is the equivalent of the United States' National Weather Service).

Video on social media appears to show a tornado at a golf course on the University of British Columbia campus. 

 The video shows rotating clouds, falling trees, breaking power lines and a blizzard of twigs and branches swirling in a circular fashion in the air.  To me, that looks like an EF0-or even EF-1 tornado. 

This rare tornado comes after a busy October across the border in the United States for tornadoes.  The counting might not be done yet, but it appears the nation endured 119 tornadoes in October, the second highest on record for that month. 

Usually, the U.S sees half that number of twisters in October. If meteorologists find evidence of a few more October tornadoes, it will break the monthly record of 123 in 2018. Remarkably,  there were 14 days in October in which at least one tornado was reported somewhere in the United States.

Still, for the year as a whole, the U.S. has had fewer tornadoes than average due to a quiet spring, notes the Washington Post. Spring is usually the peak season for twisters.

ANOTHER NOR'EASTER TO TROPICAL STORM?

We mentioned previously how a late October nor'easter that slammed coastal New England went out to sea and converted itself into Tropical Storm Wanda.  That tropical storm meandered out in the open Atlantic for at least a week before turning back into a regular storm headed for Ireland. 

We might now have a second odd nor'easter to tropical storm scenario looming. 

This nor'easter was much further south, along and off the Southeastern coast.  It caused a lot of coastal flooding and beach erosion from Florida to North Carolina. 

The nor'easter is heading out to sea and will not threaten the Northeast.  

Regular storms like a nor'easter have a cold core in the atmosphere around their center and are accompanied by cold and warm fronts. 

Tropical storms have a warm core and no weather fronts. Much like what happened with Wanda, this storm looks like it will meander out over the Gulf Stream.  That could help heat the atmosphere around the storm, converting its cold core to something much warmer. It would also lose its cold and warm fronts. 

If this happens - and forecasters say it might later this week - we'd have another tropical storm on our hands. We're out of letters in the list of 2021 storms. (The list does not include names starting with Q, X, Y and Z) so we would have to go to the substitute list of names for the second year in a row. That would be only the third time we've had to do that. The others were in 2005 and just last year. 

They used Greek names in 2005 and 2020 after the list ran out, but that proved confusing to the public. So the National Hurricane Center came up with a supplemental list in case we ran out of names. So, if this nor'easter turns into a subtropical or tropical storm, they'll name it Adria.

Busy, Busy Tropics, Fred, Grace, Henri

Right on schedule, the tropical Atlantic has flared up in the past few days and tropical storms are already causing havoc and damage in different parts of the ocean.   

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Fred making landfall
Monday in the Florida Panhandle.  The storm will 
cause dangerous flash flooding and landslides in the 
southern Appalachians today.

The one pestering the United States the most is now former Tropical Storm Fred. This one reflected a dangerous trend in tropical storms and hurricanes we've seen in recent years. It strengthened pretty rapidly right before landfall.

Luckily, Fred was a disorganized mess Sunday in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico so it got off to a slow start. Then it simply ran out of time to keep getting stronger on Monday when it hit land.

Still, Fred managed to ramp up to sustained winds of 65 mph and create a two to three foot storm surge on the Florida Panhandle.  Several thousand homes and business lost power as the gusty winds took down lines in that area. 

Actually, today is going to be the more dangerous day with Fred. Its winds are pretty much gone, but its remains are moving into the soggy southern Appalachians, where substantial flooding now seems inevitable.

Parts of western North Carolina near Asheville got four to seven inches of rain yesterday, and that same amount is forecast for the same area today with Fred.  Flash flooding, landslides and river flooding are all a good bet.

They're telling people who live near steep slopes of the southern Appalachians to consider leaving for awhile because the rock slide and land slide risk is so great. At the very least, people shouldn't be traveling along mountain roads the next few days due to the risk of flash floods and landslides.

Moisture with Fred will move north the rest of this week, raising the risk of flooding up the East Coast all the way to southern New England. It's been a sopping wet summer in these areas and that trend will continue. 

Speaking of trends, this will sound familiar here in Vermont. It looks like relatively heavy rains will fall on southern Vermont, which really doesn't need it. But not much rain at all will fall in the north, which DOES need the rain. 

That's been the story all year and I guess that state of affairs is permanent, I dunno.

Next in the tropical storm parade is Grace, which was flooding earthquake ravaged Haiti this morning with torrential rains. Current projections have Tropical Storm Grace missing the United States. Instead, it will make a straight beeline from near Jamaica to Mexico this week. It could strengthen into a hurricane by the time it makes it to Mexico.

Then there's new Tropical Storm Henri, out there meandering near Bermuda. At this point, it's expected to stay out to sea and not bother anybody on the East Coast of the United States.

Now through mid-September is the time we need to start watching the west coast of Africa. During this time of year disturbance move westward off that coast line.  These disturbances are the ones that most often turn into the most dangerous powerhouse hurricanes of the season.

There's nothing big bubbling up in that neck of the woods at the moment, but it's only a matter of time.

Fred And Grace: Flood Disasters In The Making

Earthquake destruction in Haiti on Saturday. Now, Tropical
Storm Grace is  headed toward the island, which will 
cause even more suffering. 

 Since it's August the Atlantic Ocean tropical storm and hurricane potential is now rising rapidly toward peak season by September. 

There are two tropical systems in the news, neither of which seem at the moment anyway to be destined to become powerhouse hurricanes. But both are potential big time weather disasters. As if we need more. 

The first is former and probably soon to be Tropical Storm Fred. It got wrecked over the past couple of days by unfavorable atmospheric conditions and a tangle with land around Cuba. (Tropical storms tend to fall apart over land, but can strengthen over water).

Zombie Fred was in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning and is expected to return to status as real live Tropical Storm Fred today.  The National Hurricane Center thinks it will come ashore in the western Florida panhandle or southern Mississippi overnight Monday or early Tuesday. 

It'll never really get its act together in terms of high winds. At least that's the current forecast. But it will dump heavy rain from in the Southeast. That seems especially true in the mountains of North Georgia and on into the interior Carolinas.

It's been wet down there lately, so the expected half foot or more of rain this upcoming week in the southern Appalachians sounds like a recipe for dangerous and deadly flash floods.  Stay tuned for that. 

I'm even more worried about Tropical Storm Grace.  

Haiti suffered another terrible earthquake on Saturday. At last report, the 7.2 magnitude quake has already resulted in more than 300 confirmed deaths, and that toll is expected to rise sharply.  There's widespread destruction from the quake in what is already the Western Hemisphere's poorest nation.

Which brings us to Tropical Storm Grace.  Like Fred, Grace is not expected to be a wind powerhouse, at least not in the next few days. But it will pass over or near Haiti tomorrow, with torrential downpours and gusty winds. 

This causes an extreme nightmare for Haiti. For one thing, steep slopes made unstable by the earthquake are prone to land slides in Grace's expected heavy rain, which would lead to more destruction and death in a part of the world that certainly doesn't need it. 

The storm will also surely seriously disrupt relief and rescue operations to the max.  This is basically a worst case scenario.

Like Fred, it seems like Grace will eventually affect Cuba, Florida and maybe other parts of the southeastern United States in the coming days. 

Tropics Stay Weird. Also Fire Danger In New England Of All Places

There's a tropical storm watch today in frigid Newfoundland. Another tropical storm rose from the dead nearly a week after dissipating. Yet another one is pretty sitting and spinning over the same location, unleashing dangerous floods. 

Gorgeous satellite view of the Northeast this
morning. Big curved cloud shield is outer
edge of Hurricane Teddy. Just west of 
that cloud shield over Vermont that got
entrained in Teddy's circulation.Then
there's a narrow band of smoke-free
air in northeastern New York, with
more smoke coming in behind it from 
the west.

The weird tropical storm season of 2020 continues on. I'l also get to the fire danger in a bit, which is in part being caused by yes, a hurricane. 

TROPICAL STORM BETA 

I'll start with the relatively "least" weird one first. Tropical Storm Beta splashed ashore along the mid Texas coast last night. Maximum winds were estimated to be near 50 mph, and I think even that was generous. 

The problem is Beta is stalling just inland, and is drawing feeder bands of torrential rain into the Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana all day today and into tomorrow.

This location can NOT be worse than it is.  Houston, still traumatized by the extreme Hurricane Harvey floods of 2017,  is at a high risk of some substantial flash flooding today. It won't be as bad as Harvey, but that's not much comfort. 

Three to six inches of rain has already fallen around Houston as of early this morning, and at least another four inches is due today. Flash flooding is already ongoing in the massive Houston area, and that is likely to get worse as the day goes on. Flood warnings are up for most area creeks and rivers.  There are lingering storm surges along the coast, and that would limit the ability of creeks and bayous to drain into the Gulf of Mexico.

The torrential rains are likely to move into southwestern Louisiana which was totally wrecked by Hurricane Laura last month. Those tarps over destroyed roofs might not hold up to this much rain, adding to the wreckage of severely damaged houses. Renewed flooding will interfere with hurricane cleanup, and create added damage.  

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE

This one has risen from the dead. Over a week ago, Hurricane Paulette smacked Bermuda with 90 mph winds, then raced off to the North Atlantic Ocean to die in the cold waters up there. 

Turns out Paulette is some kind of zombie. The remains of Paulette moved south into somewhat warmer waters kind of near the Azores. As of last night, it was reborn as a 60 mph tropical storm.

Paulette has turned east heading slowly toward southern Portugal, but will never get there. Cooler ocean water and high upper level winds should kill Paulette again over the next few days. However, there are some suggestions that its remains could turn on a dime and move westward again. 

If the ghost of Paulette gets far enough west and loses the upper level winds, who knows? It could become a zombie storm again. That's unlikely, but the way this year is going, you never know. 

HURRICANE TEDDY

Hurricane Teddy is gradually losing its tropical characteristics, but is still only half way through that process. When hurricanes do this, their areas of high winds expand.  Teddy is moving north toward Nova Scotia and is expected to give them a pretty nasty blow later today, and the bad weather will move up toward Newfoundland tomorrow. 

As of early this morning, Teddy still had top winds of 105 mph, and hurricane force winds extended as far as 100 miles from its center. That's a big area for a hurricane. 

That set up is helping Tedday cause huge waves and elevated water levels along the Atlantic Coast from Newfoundland to Florida. Coastal flooding is ongoing up and down the East Coast, even as skies remain sunny well outside Teddy's core of clouds and rain.

New England is on the western edge of Teddy's expanding wind field, so breezy to gusty north winds will come through today, especially east of the Connecticut River.

New England is in a drought. The winds today, gusting to 30 mph or more in the eastern half of the region,  could help spread any fires that start.  So I guess we're getting a very mini version of what's been going on in the western United States for weeks now. 

Red flag warnings that indicate fire danger are up for almost all of New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and southwestern Maine. 

Here in Vermont, the fire danger isn't quite as high because the wind will be lighter than areas to our east. However, the northerly breezes, low humidity and especially the very dry conditions from this month's lack of rain raises the risk of fires. 

Note that smoke from western wildfires is getting caught up in Teddy's circulation, so we will be back to smoky skies overhead, especially this afternoon. We first started noticing this return to smoke overhead yesterday, ,and I think it might thicken up some this afternoon. 

Some relief from the dry weather is possibly due later in the weekend and early next week. Two fairlky wet cold fronts, one Sunday night, the other Monday night and Tuesday, have the potential at least to give us some decent rains for once. 

Tropical Storm/Hurricane Risk Over The Next Week Even More Uncertain Than Usual

 As we've repeated noted, the tropical Atlantic was widely expected to get way more active starting in mid-August and that has definitely happened.

So what's in it for us?  

Just one forecast for what looks like will be Tropical
Storm Laura. Expect this projected path to change,
possibly by a lot 

Um, I dunno

Predicting the strength and path of a potential hurricane that hasn't even formed yet is still one of the biggest challenges facing meteorologists. The science really isn't there yet, though it is improving a lot. 

The situation in the Atlantic Ocean now, though, is even more of a tossup than ever, it seems.

Forecasters have been watching two areas in the Atlantic Ocean as candidates for possible hurricanes, or at least tropical storms.  One of these disturbances has taken the interim step of becoming a tropical depression, which means it has a definable circulation but is not strong enough yet to be a tropical storm. 

It will probably grow into Tropical Storm Laura later today, but then what? Talk about tossups!  

Wannabe Laura is in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean and headed generally westward. It's certainly not nearly close enough to be any threat to the United States, but it could eventually.  Computer models are all over the place with this thing. 

Wannabe Laura could turn into a powerful hurricane near Florida by next Monday or Tuesday or it could just go pffft and be yet another nothing burger. Other models take a middle approach and turn it into a strong tropical storm, but not a hurricane. 

Conditions are ripe for strengthening, but if dry air from the north gets sucked into the system, or it goes right over land in Hispaniola, Wannabe Laura could die a quick death. 

Meanwhile, there's that second thing they've been watching.  It's now much further west than Wannabe Laura. This other system is over the central Caribbean Sea and has a good chance of strengthening into Tropical Storm Marco.

(Of course, if Wannabe Marco turns tropical storm first, it will be Laura and the other thing I just talked about would be Marco. Yeah, I know, confusing).

For now I'll call the problem in the Caribbean Sea Wannabe Marco unless facts change. Wannabe Marco is also in a good spot to develop, and could cause trouble in Honduras and southeastern Mexico within a few days. 

After that, who knows? Does it head northward into the Gulf of Mexico, get strong and threaten the United States? Or does in crash into Mexico and cause a lot of grief there? Or does it somehow go poof and turn into just a batch of lousy weather?

Meanwhile, an impressive batch of storms is just about to move off the west coast of Africa and head into the Atlantic, to possibly become another tropical storm in the future. 

It's true this post isn't all that enlightening.  You've basically just read a series of questions. But here's the point: We are now entering what is normally the busiest, most dangerous part of hurricane season, and this will last through September.

Since conditions in the Atlantic Ocean are favorable for potentially strong hurricanes, all these questions about Wannabe Laura and Wannabe Marco are proof that coastal residents from Texas to Maine need to be on their toes now.  If you don't have your hurricane preparedness stuff now, run out to Costco or Lowe's or wherever to get it. Today. 

Those of us inland from the coasts need to pay attention, too.  A hurricane or tropical storm heading inland can unleash a lot of dangerous flooding.