Tropical Storm/Hurricane Risk Over The Next Week Even More Uncertain Than Usual

 As we've repeated noted, the tropical Atlantic was widely expected to get way more active starting in mid-August and that has definitely happened.

So what's in it for us?  

Just one forecast for what looks like will be Tropical
Storm Laura. Expect this projected path to change,
possibly by a lot 

Um, I dunno

Predicting the strength and path of a potential hurricane that hasn't even formed yet is still one of the biggest challenges facing meteorologists. The science really isn't there yet, though it is improving a lot. 

The situation in the Atlantic Ocean now, though, is even more of a tossup than ever, it seems.

Forecasters have been watching two areas in the Atlantic Ocean as candidates for possible hurricanes, or at least tropical storms.  One of these disturbances has taken the interim step of becoming a tropical depression, which means it has a definable circulation but is not strong enough yet to be a tropical storm. 

It will probably grow into Tropical Storm Laura later today, but then what? Talk about tossups!  

Wannabe Laura is in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean and headed generally westward. It's certainly not nearly close enough to be any threat to the United States, but it could eventually.  Computer models are all over the place with this thing. 

Wannabe Laura could turn into a powerful hurricane near Florida by next Monday or Tuesday or it could just go pffft and be yet another nothing burger. Other models take a middle approach and turn it into a strong tropical storm, but not a hurricane. 

Conditions are ripe for strengthening, but if dry air from the north gets sucked into the system, or it goes right over land in Hispaniola, Wannabe Laura could die a quick death. 

Meanwhile, there's that second thing they've been watching.  It's now much further west than Wannabe Laura. This other system is over the central Caribbean Sea and has a good chance of strengthening into Tropical Storm Marco.

(Of course, if Wannabe Marco turns tropical storm first, it will be Laura and the other thing I just talked about would be Marco. Yeah, I know, confusing).

For now I'll call the problem in the Caribbean Sea Wannabe Marco unless facts change. Wannabe Marco is also in a good spot to develop, and could cause trouble in Honduras and southeastern Mexico within a few days. 

After that, who knows? Does it head northward into the Gulf of Mexico, get strong and threaten the United States? Or does in crash into Mexico and cause a lot of grief there? Or does it somehow go poof and turn into just a batch of lousy weather?

Meanwhile, an impressive batch of storms is just about to move off the west coast of Africa and head into the Atlantic, to possibly become another tropical storm in the future. 

It's true this post isn't all that enlightening.  You've basically just read a series of questions. But here's the point: We are now entering what is normally the busiest, most dangerous part of hurricane season, and this will last through September.

Since conditions in the Atlantic Ocean are favorable for potentially strong hurricanes, all these questions about Wannabe Laura and Wannabe Marco are proof that coastal residents from Texas to Maine need to be on their toes now.  If you don't have your hurricane preparedness stuff now, run out to Costco or Lowe's or wherever to get it. Today. 

Those of us inland from the coasts need to pay attention, too.  A hurricane or tropical storm heading inland can unleash a lot of dangerous flooding.