They're still trying to restore all the power on the East Coast after Hurricane Isaias, but that destructive storm looks like it might be just a foretaste of what's to come.
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| Damage from Isaias this week in Pennsylvania. |
The National Hurricane Center updated its seasonal forecast for this year, and it's ominous. So did the hurricane experts at Colorado State University.
According to CBS News, CSU is now "predicting 24 named storms, including 12 total hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes - each figure about double that of a normal season. If the forecast proves accurate, 2020 would be the second most active Atlantic hurricane season, behind only the record-shattering 2005 season, which brought Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma."
The National Hurricane Center predicts between 19 and 25 named storms, including seven to 11 that would become hurricane and three to six being major hurricanes.
All these figures include the nine named storms we've already had this year. There's no record of any year having nine named storms by now - we are already on a record pace.
We've seen in Isaias what can happen if a hurricane or tropical storm has a long track through a populated are of the nation.
Isaias was "only" a tropical storm as it headed up the East Coast, but still killed several people, caused an estimated $1 billion in damage and cut power to more than 3 million homes and businesses.
For the moment, the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere over the ocean is playing possum. As of this morning the National Hurricane Center not seeing any suspicious areas that could develop into tropical storms or hurricanes. There's one lonely area of disturbed weather out there, but it's not expected to amount to anything.
I'm sure that will change soon, and I suspect by late August and September, there will be so many storms and potential storms lurking out there that it will be almost impossible to keep track of them all.
Warm ocean waters are like jet fuel for hurricanes, and some parts of the tropical Atlantic where storms either form or move over are at record or near record levels.
This hotter than normal water is probably a combination of a natural cycle and climate change, which tends to make warm peaks even toastier and cool periods not all that chilly.
Other reasons for this expected onslaught of tropical storms and hurricanes is a wet central Africa and lower than normal air pressure over the tropical Atlantic, according to CBS and other news organizations.
The wet ground and conditions over central Africa would help disturbances moving westward off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean be stronger and more organized. These disturbances often turn into tropical storms and hurricanes.
If these disturbances have a healthier start when pushing away from Africa, they tend to be more likely to develop.
The low air pressure in the tropical Atlantic means air there has a tendency to rise. That rising air creates thunderstorms, which can turn into tropical storms and hurricanes, reports CBS. Also, upper level winds are weak in the Atlantic.
Strong upper level winds tear apart those thunderstorms I just mentioned, stopping tropical storm formation in its tracks. Weak upper level winds let those thunderstorms develop nicely, increasing the chances of storms.
Even if all these factors come together to make this busy hurricane forecast spot on, nobody knows where any of these tropical storms and hurricanes will go. Will atmospheric conditions make them turn north, harmlessly moving into the cold open waters of the North Atlantic to die alone?
Or will the storms crash into populated coastlines, including those in the United States to cause much more havoc than we've already seen from Isaias and Hurricane Hanna in Texas back in late July?
Whatever happens, buckle up. Its going to be a wild ride.
Also, here's a couple news videos to show what can happen from "only" a tropical storm Isaias
Damage on the Jersey shore:
And in Long Island, New York:
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