Two Hurricanes In Three Days In Louisiana? Also Some Severe Threat Up Here

The forecast has turned pretty ominous for Louisiana, as it's now possible that two hurricanes will strike its coast within three days of each other. 

Here's one forecast map that shows Laura 
and Marco both hitting Louisiana in the
upcoming days.

Tropical Storm Marco is spinning in the Gulf of Mexico and could strike Louisiana as a hurricane on Monday.  Tropical Storm Laura, near Hispaniola this morning, is forecast to strike basically the same spot on Thursday. 

While there's still a lot of uncertainty as to whether this will play out like I describe, such back to back strikes in the same spot are really rare. And really dangerous.

 

If it happens, both storm surge and inland flooding caused by Marco would still be going on when Laura arrives. 

Of course, as more forecast information comes in, the path and strength of the two storms could be quite different than currently predicted when the event actually unfolds. But whatever happens, it ain't good news.

First up is Tropical Storm Marco. Its top winds early this morning were 70 mph, just under hurricane strength.  It is heading steadily northwest toward Louisiana.  Rather strong upper level winds are interfering with Marco's development. 

Marco ramped up pretty quickly on Saturday, but then leveled off.  The Gulf of Mexico waters are very warm, so that would help with development, but the upper level winds would probably keep Marco at Category 1 strength, with top winds at landfall just near 75 to 80 mph. 

The real danger from Marco, despite its small size, is the storm surge and heavy rain that would prime the pump for Laura. 

Tropical Storm Laura is hanging in there surprisingly well, given its interaction with land over Hispaniola.  If a tropical storm is over land, it often weakens, especially in mountainous places like that island. 

Laura is larger in size than Marco, so that is keeping some of its thunderstorms over water, which is helping it stay together. 

This tropical storm probably won't get much stronger for the next couple of days as it goes over or near the length of Cuba.

There are definite worries as to what would happen with Laura once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico early in the week. Those strongish upper level winds that will have interfered with Marco will be mostly gone. Those very warm Gulf waters have the potential to ramp Laura up into a monster hurricane.  We don't know for sure, but it's definitely worth watching. 

In any event, 2020, is the year in which everything seems to go wrong, so these twin potential hurricanes are par for the course. 

NEW ENGLAND SEVERE WEATHER

Yesterday, a tornado touched down on Lake Winnipesaukee in central New Hampshire, and likely caused damage in shoreline Wolfsboro, New Hampshire. 

No severe storms that I'm aware of hit Vermont yesterday, but I guess we are in a pattern.  There were a couple severe storm reports in Rutland County Friday, and we have a low but real chance of more severe weather today, Monday and Tuesday. 

Some showers and a few lightning strikes were in northern Vermont and northern New York this morning as a weak weather front lifts toward the Canadian border.  This front will  probably set the stage for more storms this afternoon.  A few could be strong or even locally severe, with sharp wind gusts being the primary threat. 

The same set up looks like it will hang around on Monday, so it's basically rinse and repeat.  For both days, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe storms.  That means there could be a few brief, isolated severe storms, but nothing super widespread. 

It's beginning to look like more of a severe weather outbreak will hit the Northeast on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front moving into the region. 

There's a lot of question as to whether we here in Vermont will get any severe storms Tuesday and if so to what extent. 

At this point, the cold front seems like it wants to come through  the Green Mountain State in the morning, To get widespread severe storms, a cold front should come through in the afternoon or evening. That gives a chance for the atmosphere to heat up, making the air less stable and more prone to strong storms. 

That heating won't have a chance to occur if the front comes through in the morning.  The cold front looks like it will be strong enough to create rambunctious storms, even if it comes through in the morning.  If the front is delayed until afternoon, watch out!

As it is, we know that cold front won't come through until later in the day in places south and east of us, so that could turn out to be interesting.