Saturday Lee Update: For Vermont, More Entertaining Than Dangerous

 If we have to be affected by a hurricane or tropical storm in Vermont, this is the way to do it. 

The setting sun shining into high clouds streaming off 
from Hurricane Lee Friday evening lit up 
the skies over St. Albans, Vermont. 

What was once Hurricane Lee, as expected, threw a bunch of high clouds overhead in Vermont Saturday, leading to a kinda interesting sky during much of the day. That led to a gorgeous sunset.

There is a chance we might have a repeat nice sunset this evening. It depends upon how Lee's shield of high clouds that's over us now behaves. 

Lee is not even considered a tropical system anymore.  It does have a warm core, still, which tropical storms have. But on satellite, the clouds with Lee are not circular anymore, but more of a comma shape you see with regular storms. It's also developing a cold and warm front. 

This technicality doesn't matter much on the ground. I don't want to minimize the effects Lee is having on eastern Maine, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick where storm damage is ongoing today from near-hurricane force wind gusts and storm surges.

This won't be as bad up there as Hurricane Fiona last year, but it will still sting.

For us in Vermont, we get off with barely a worry. 

GUSTS ARE COMING

After all the weather drama we've had in Vermont this year, it's nice to see a major weather system not create havoc. Lee might cause some minor inconveniences around here today, but I hardly think this will cause yet another disaster declaration in the Green Mountain State. 

At dawn today, they're barely a breeze in Vermont, thanks to a temperature inversion that often sets up at night. That was mixing out and by mid morning, gusts were ramping up, and will hit the 30 to 40 mph range in many spots across the Green Mountain State.  

 hat's enough to create a few very isolated power outages around the state, but most of us will be fine. 

Gusts in that range are pretty common in Vermont during the winter and usually don't lead to anything noteworthy. But the trees are bare during gusty winter storms in January. 

This time of year, the trees are still leafed out. Each leaf acts like a little sale, pulling trees sideways during gusty weather. That can pull a few trees down. Especially since the ground is still soggy after our awful summer.  It's easier to uproot trees when the soil is wet.

The sharp line between clear skies and a high overcast
from Hurricane Lee was visible over Georgia, Vermont Friday. 

Again, I want to emphasize this won't be that big a deal.  I'm talking isolated, scattered power outages that will be fixed pretty quickly.  You have a really low chance of losing your electricity, and if it happens, it won't last long. 

Like I've said in previous posts, I'd cancel plans to take your boat onto Lake Champlain or other lakes in Vermont. The water will be too choppy and actually kind of dangerous A lake wind advisory is up today, naturally. 

One thing  you might notice if you hit the web page for the National Weather Service in South Burlington. It will look like the radar is lit up with rain.   Actually, some rain is falling from the high overcast that's with us now. But the north winds with Lee are pulling in some dry air, so that rain will keep evaporating well before it hits the ground. 

There might be just a little bit of rain in the Northeast Kingdom, but that's it. 

VERMONT'S "NICE" TROPICAL STORM

Usually, tropical storms and hurricanes are bad news anywhere, including here in Vermont. We only have to look at the catastrophic floods with Tropical Storm Irene in 2011 and the destruction from the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 for examples.

But there's also rare but real precedent for tropical storms that are either harmless for us, like Lee today, or actually do more good than harm locally.   

In August, 2020, Hurricane Isaias made landfall in North Carolina as a hurricane and went up the East Coast as a tropical storm.  All along the way from North Carolina to New England, Isaias let loose with dozens of tornadoes, and flash flooding along the way. 

However, when it got to Vermont, ti was different. The center of Tropical Storm Isaias went literally right over Rutland on the evening of August 4 on its way northward through Vermont to Quebec. 

The tropical storm dumped heavy rain on Vermont, especially the western half of the state. .But a drought was going on at the time, so Tropical Storm Isaias was a rare happy big storm for Vermont. It did cause a few power outages, but we survived, right? 

Hurricane Lee Closing In On Nova Scotia, Maine

Satellite view from just before dawn shows the first big
band of high clouds from Hurricane Lee approaching
Vermont from the east. 

 You're going to hear about Hurricane Lee "weakening" into a tropical storm or gradually transitioning to a non-tropical system.  

All technically true, but conditions in Nova Scotia and probably eastern Maine are going to devolve into the conditions you'd find in a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. 

It's going to be messy up there. 

Actually, tropical storm warnings are up for all of the immediate east facing coastline of New England, and that big chunk of eastern Maine. 

In Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, they're bracing for storm surges and flooding, but the biggest hazard up there will be those winds that will cause a lot of power outages. Residents have been told to expect outages that could last for days. 

Here in Vermont the Lee forecast is steady state.  Today, we'll see high clouds increase from the south and east. On Saturday, we're still expecting a cloudy, windy day.  Depending on where you are, gusts during Saturday should peak in the 30 to 40 mph range, while sustained winds between gusts will probably be 15 to 20 mph.

It's going to be on the rough on Lake Champlain, with waves on the broad lake up to three feet. So it won't be a great day up there. 

If you're hiking tomorrow, hang on to your hat! Gusts could reach as high as 60 mph on the summits of the Green Mountains. 

So Vermont all in all is still looking at a close shave, but no biggie from Lee. We got lucky. 

We might get lucky from Lee in another respect. I told you how it will the storm will create a high level overcast. Depending on how far west the high cloud shield gets, we have a shot of seeing spectacular sunsets, possibly both this evening and Saturday, too.   

If the dge of the clouds is somewhere in central New York or something like that, the setting sun would light up the high overcast into a wildly colorful evening.  No promises on that, but it's a possibility. 

We've got some additional nice "traditional" September weather coming  up. Sunday will be gorgeous (sunshine and 70).  There might be a little rain Monday and perhaps early Tuesday, but we get into a pretty long, mild, dry stretch of weather after that. 

You know how those storms would seem to stall over us all summer?  This time, a dry, sunny high pressure system will stall around us for a few days. That will be a nice change for sure.  

Vermont Finally Finds Autumn, Will Get Breezy As Hurricane Lee Blows By To East

Satellite view of large Hurricane Lee heading northward
off the East Coast, headed to Nova Scotia or the eastern
tip of Maine by Saturday.

 Southern New England, lately in the cross hairs of severe weather, got socked again Wednesday with more floods and even some reports of possible tornadoes.  

The tornadoes aren't confirmed yet, but evidence is pretty strong that there might have been one or more twisters in Connecticut, Rhode Island and possibly southeastern Massachusetts.

Video taken at a small airport in Smithfield, Rhode Island showed what appeared to be a tornado on the ground. In Scituate, Rhode Island, trees fell in opposite directions, a sign of a possible tornado.

If a tornado is confirmed in Scituate, Rhode Island, it would be the second time in a month the town was hit by a twister. Rhode Island: Tornado Alley. Go figure.

Here in Vermont, we just had some rain showers Wednesday, no biggie.

HURRICANE LEE

Wednesday's bad weather is pretty much out of New England, and now everybody is watching Hurricane Lee, and getting sick of it. At least the vigil is almost over. 

The forecasts for Lee have been pretty consistent, bringing it ashore Saturday in western Nova Scotia. There's still a chance it could land on the nearby eastern tip of Maine. 

The upper Maine coast is under a hurricane watch for the first time since Hurricane Kyle threatened the state in 2008. Hurricane Kyle took a similar path to what is expected out of Lee.  It causes hurricane force gusts in Nova Scotia and produced some flooding in eastern Maine. 

It looks like Hurricane Lee will be something of a rinse and repeat of Kyle. 

Tropical storm watches and warnings extend along most of the New England coast. 

Hurricane Lee will be transitioning to a non-tropical system by the time it reaches Maine or Nova Scotia. Also, top winds might - or might not - be just below hurricane speeds.

Nevertheless the storm spells a lot of trouble on Cape Cod and the Islands, and especially Downeast Maine, Nova Scotia and parts of New Brunswick. 

Nova Scotia in particular does not need this storm.  The Canadian Province is still reeling from destructive wildfires in May and June, extreme flooding in July, and damage from Hurricane Fiona last year. 

With soggy ground and trees still leafed out, officials in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick expect lots of long lasting power outages as many of those trees topple onto power lines.

Eastern Maine is likely to see flooding as well

Hurricane Lee is a large storm with a big zone of strong winds. And storms like Lee that move north into New England or Atlantic Canada tend to grow even larger, so a pretty big area will likely see some tropical storm force gusts.

VERMONT EFFECTS

We're still expecting a windy, rather cloudy Saturday here in the Green Mountain State. The western edge of that large wind field from Hurricane Lee will overspread our area. Many of us, especially for people east of the Green  Mountains could see gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range.

That's not terrible. But since the ground is so soggy and we haven't had much wind this summer, those gusts might take down an isolated tree or two. There might even be a few local, brief power outages, but I don't expect that to be a big deal.

Larger lakes, especially Lake Champlain could have some issues with waves and choppy seas, so Saturday is the wrong day for a boat ride on the lake. Try Sunday. It'll be sunnier and calmer.

A little rain from Hurricane Lee might spread into the Northeast Kingdom, but it won't amount to much. 

Hurricanes are big heat pumps, sending lots of warm air into the the upper atmosphere. Up there, it's like automobile exhaust on a cold winter day, when you see steam coming out of everybody's tail pipe.

The warm, wet air will create steam of sort, which will take the form of a large shield of high level overcast extending far outward from the center of Hurricane Lee.. There might be a little dim sun coming through that high overcast Saturday, but it probably won't be a bright sunny day. 

Meanwhile, yesterday's cold front finally flushed out the humid air we've been dealing with since around September 3, so it finally eels like early autumn. 

That trend will continue all weekend, with nice weather, except for the Hurricane Lee interruption on Saturday. 

For once, it also looks like we have a long period of mostly dry weather coming up. As it looks now, anyway, there might be jus a bit of light rain next Monday, then little or no rain for about a week after that.  

Today's Storm Sputters A Bit For Vermont, Hurricane Lee Still Churning

Hurricane Lee northeast of the Bahamas this morning
is expected to move north and make landfall in 
Nova Scotia or possibly the eastern tip
of Maine on Saturday.

 About five days ago, the weather forecasting computer models were flashing a bit of a danger signal for Vermont today. Those prognostications suggested we might see some torrential rains and flooding. 

The reality - at least for Vermont -  is pffft.  Yes, it's definitely raining out there, and that should continue for most of the day. But it will never come down hard enough to cause any real flooding. Just another soggy day in a long string of them this year. 

Unfortunately, though, there has to be a victim with this storm and that's southern New England. The deep moisture that was originally supposed to affect Vermont is mostly stuck down in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. 

They've had rounds of flash flooding over the past few days, and more is happening today. Already, before 9 a.m. today, flash flood and severe thunderstorm warnings were flashing in Connecticut, and that looks like it will spread into Massachusetts soon. 

Radar images at 8:45 a.m. suggested those storms might eventually up in central Massachusetts, which suffered some extreme flash flooding Monday. So the news isn't good. 

Back here in Vermont, there might be some rumbles of thunder and some briefly heavy downpours, but that's about it. After ten days of either extremely or kinda humid air, we're finally going to see a taste of crisp, dry air that September should be famous for. 

This cooler air mass won't exactly scream "autumn" but it will be the coolest air we've seen in awhile (Highs in the 60s to around 70, lows in the 40s to around 50 Thursday and Friday. Pretty standard for September. 

Then we watch Hurricane Lee go by

HURRICANE LEE

Forecasts for the future path of Hurricane Lee have ticked a bit westward since yesterday, but it still doesn't look like it will screw up Vermont all that much. 

Lee will pass by Cape Cod and the Islands Late Friday night or very early Saturday morning. Coastal southern New England  can expect some storm surges, battering waves, beach erosion, gusty winds and maybe spells of heavy rain.  It won't be a good time on Cape Cod at all.

From there, Hurricane Lee looks like it might head north, making landfall in extreme eastern Maine or far western Nova Scotia during the day Saturday. 

Though Lee won't be as powerful as it once was, it could still have top winds of 80 mph at landfall, along with storm surges and torrential rain.

Tides are normally awfully extreme in the Bay of Fundy, so it will be interesting to see what Hurricane Lee does there. 

For us in Vermont, Hurricane Lee will provide a rather cloudy, windy Saturday.  Winds shouldn't be strong enough to be damaging, but it will be a change of pace for us. Other than in strong thunderstorm gusts, we've had a remarkable lack of wind for the past three months or so. 

North winds Saturday could gust as high as 30 mph and even a little higher than that in the Connecticut Valley. Winds on ridge lines could gust to 45 mph, the National Weather Service says. 

Winds of this magnitude shouldn't cause any real trouble, but hang on to your hat. 

Light showers from Lee might make it into eastern areas, especially the Northeast Kingdom.

Do note if the westward trend in Lee's expected path continues, it could make Saturdays in Vermont  just a bit windier and a bit wetter than currently expected. 

We're still looking safe from any new weather disasters with Lee, though, so that's great. 

Vermont Getting Lucky With Storms, Rest Of New England, Not So Much

Severe flooding in Leominster, Mass.
Monday. Photo by Judy Jollimore.

If you live in Vermont, you might have been justified to complain a little about the gloomy, overcast conditions that lingered all day, or at least most of the day. 

You'll be pleased to know, though, we dodged another weather bullet. And more bullets flying in our general direction look destined to miss, too.

We've been dealing with a nearly stalled weather front over New England since last Thursday, which has caused round after round of storms in various parts of the region. 

The front settled just to the south and east of Vermont Monday, leaving us in the cool-ish damp murk.

MASSACHUSETTS DISASTER

The southeastern half of New England was still on the warm,  humid side of the stalled front, and that's been causing flash flooding from torrential downpours since Saturday.

Yesterday, all hell broke loose in central Massachusetts, and to a slightly lesser extent in Rhode Island and Connecticut.

In Massachusetts, training thunderstorms, one after another going over the same spot, unleashed incredible downpours and flash floods, especially around Leominster, Fitchburg and surrounding communities. 

Leominster had 9.5 inches of rain in just a few hours. (The entire month of September there normally yields less than half that amount of rain).  Fitchburg, Massachusetts got a whopping 2.77 inches of rain in just one hour and a storm total of five inches. 

Numerous houses and businesses were flooded, at least one building collapsed in Leominster, and you basically couldn't get around town since all the roads were under water. This flood was on par with the inundation we got here in Vermont back in July, except yesterday's Massachusetts mess covered a smaller area. 

WEDNESDAY STORM

The next storm we have been talking about for days is still on track to hit New England tomorrow. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center continues to have most of the region, including Vermont, in a slight risk area for flash floods. 

I think the real danger zone might be southern New England again, which is most likely to get some torrential thunderstorms with this. 

A strong cold front will accompany this system. Here in Vermont, this thing should generally be well behaved, dumping less than an inch of rain on us through the day.  The isolated flash flood risk comes if any thunderstorms can get going just ahead of the cold front. The heavier downpours with those thunderstorms could cause a  high water problem here or there. It doesn't look like anything widespread will happen here. 

The cold front will give us a belated new introduction to autumn. In Burlington, Vermont it has been continuously above 60 degrees since the morning of September 2, which is a very strangely long time to stay that warm. 

This will end tomorrow night as both delightfully dry air with normal temperatures for mid-September finally arrive.

HURRICANE LEE

Though things could still change, it continues to look like Hurricane Lee won't be that big a deal here in Vermont. If the forecast track holds, it could end up being pretty breezy Saturday and/or Sunday, but beyond that, not much. Again, if the forecast track verifies, Vermont probably will get no rain, or at least very little rain from this hurricane.

For a few days now, the computer models, generally speaking have been making Hurricane Lee make landfall somewhere near western Nova Scotia. That the forecasts have been consistent on this gives me a little more confidence that this path will become reality. 

Again, though, hurricanes can always surprise. If the track of the storm goes much further west than expected, though, all bets are off. 

However, it looks like southern and especially eastern New England will take the brunt of this. As Hurricane Lee moves north, its top winds will weaken, but the area raked by strong winds will expand. That means coastal New England, especially Rhode Island on north to Maine, can expect high tides, large wages, beach erosion, and especially in eastern Maine, heavy rain.

The timing is still a bit of a question  mark, as some models bring Lee to near New England early Saturday, while some hold off until early Sunday. 

We still have to keep an eye on this, but if you have weekend plans for Provincetown, Nantucket or Bar Harbor,  you might want to reconsider.  

I'm A Little More Relaxed About Vermont Rain And Storminess This Week

Sunflowers and a few big pink flowers try to brighten
up a foggy, murky Monday morning in St. Albans,
Vermont. Lots of moisture lingering in the air 
after the on and off rains from the past few days. 

 Yesterday's rainy system, while thoroughly soaking much of Vermont, ended up being pretty well behaved. 

There was for a time a flood advisory for the southeastern corner of Vermont once again on Sunday evening, but I don't have any reports of trouble.

I'm sure water is running high or at least high-ish in much of the state, especially in central and southern Vermont, but they're not flooding.  

One saving grace is that for several hours during the day, rather intense storms in southern New England were literally stealing our thunder.  Those storms to our south were robbing moisture that would have otherwise flowed easily into Vermont. 

The result was much lighter rains during the day than many anticipated. during the morning and early afternoon in Burlington, it rained continuously for six hours. But it was only a droning sprinkle, with a whopping 0.01 inches of rain falling in a six hour period, 

Rains did come earlier, and later in the evening, so Burlington clocked a respectable storm total of 0.72 inches, pretty much in line with forecasts. Some areas in central and southern Vermont probably got an inch or more of rain. 

It was still raining in much of the southern half of Vermont earlier this morning, but that should gradually taper off during the day

Tuesday will bring us a break in the action before the next round

NEXT STORM TO BEHAVE?

We're still expecting a soaker on Wednesday, but the good news is the system might end up moving through a little faster than earlier anticipated. That might limit rainfall some, which would in turn possibly limit flood potential.

There's still some questions, though, as to how hard it will rain on Wednesday. I expect the day to be a washout, but whether we get any flooding depends upon whether any torrential downpours develop, or whether it will be just a steady rain that will time to partly soak into the ground rather than run off and cause flooding.

That said, the ground has gotten pretty soggy again with the rain over the past few days, so we'll need to stay on our toes Wednesday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has us in a slight risk zone for excessive rain and flooding Wednesday. 

HURRICANE LEE

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.  This only 
illustrates just some of the computer model
projections for the future path of 
Hurricane Lee.

It seems like we've been talking about this hurricane forever, since it's just slowly lurching through the Atlantic Ocean. It's still expected to take its northward turn Wednesday, but there's still a lot of questions as to how close to New England it comes. 

When a relatively slow moving hurricane like Lee move northward off the East Coast of the United States, winds tend to weaken, but the area of storminess associated with the hurricane expands. 

We still don't know how close the center of Hurricane Lee will come to the New England coast, so we don't know what the weather will be like anywhere in New England, frankly.

It's likely - but not guaranteed - Vermont will be luckier than most, since we're further west, of course. 

If Lee goes further east than forecast, we end up with a sunny and nice Sunday.  If it goes further west, we could have a gusty, even rainy Sunday, especially eastern Vermont. 

Of all the computer models, most have Lee hitting somewhere in western Nova Scotia or New Brunswick. But it could come as far east as Maine, or just go nearly harmlessly out to sea. 

Still Watching Two Vermont Flood Threats, And Hurricane Lee

During a brief break in our humid, rainy 
weather of late, I checked out a sunflower
in my yard that definitely 
over performed in this year's soggy conditions.

I was surprised to be woken by the sound of thunder in the wee hours of this morning. "How far off I sat and wondered," I thought, quoting an old Bob Seger song. To my husband's great relief, I did NOT start humming a song from 1962 at that point.  

In any event, we have a little more thunder and a LOT more rain to get through this week. Yeah, we're back at it. 

The forecast scenario hasn't changed too much since I got into this in yesterday's post. I was hoping we'd squeak out a dry Sunday morning today before the rain set in this afternoon, but that's looking less likely. As I write this after 8 a.m., not everybody in Vermont is getting rain, but there are plenty of showers scattered about. 

Everywhere. it's misty, muggy and murky.  Rain will pick up today, and become heavy at times into this evening. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has upgraded us a bit to a slight risk of excessive rain and flooding today. That's a change for the even iffier marginal risk we were under in previous forecasts.  

 So far, there is no flood watch in effect for today, as any flooding problems at this point look like they will be pretty isolated and spotty. 

One reason for the relatively low but not zero flood risk today is this:  The heaviest rain over the past few days fell mostly in the Champlain Valley. It was somewhat drier east of the Green Mountains, especially north of Springfield, Vermont.  The heaviest rain today looks like it might set up in eastern Vermont, with somewhat lighter amounts in places like Burlington, Middlebury and St. Albans. 

Total rainfall from today and tonight's episode should range for nearly three quarter of an inch northwest to up to 1.5 inches east. The isolated flood risk, if any, would come if any embedded thunderstorms or downpours hit the same spot repeatedly. Then you get a local flash floods. 

The rain through tomorrow morning will not be enough to cause any problems at all along the main rivers. They will rise somewhat, but will fall well short of flood level, so that's good.

NEXT STORM

So far, computer models are remarkably in sync with each other, especially for a storm that's a few days away. It's still looking like we might see a ton of rain Wednesday and possibly into Thursday. 

By tons of rain, I don't mean the four to eight inches we endured in the Great Flood of '23 in July.  But the midweek rains do still like they might be enough to cause some problems. 

A piece of the Bermuda High, the thing famous for causing heat waves, is unusually far to the north and west. A stronger system than today's comes toward us from the Midwest by Wednesday. That and the Bermuda High will work together to channel lots of tropical moisture toward us. 

The result, if things come together correctly, could be some pretty impressive downpours. I doubt flash flooding will be super widespread midweek, but it might be more extensive than the isolated cases we might or might see later today or tonight. 

Things could still change, but it's worth keeping an eye on

HURRICANE LEE

Not that there was ever a big chance of this, but it's looking less and less possible that Hurricane Lee would turn into another Great Hurricane of 1938. Which of course is wonderful news.

The 1938 hurricane was roughly in the position where Lee is now. But while Lee is sputtering a bit, weakened by somewhat strong upper level winds,  the 1938 hurricane stayed consistently powerful. 

Like what's expected of Lee, the 1938 hurricane turned north. But the 1938 storm did so at a position further west than Lee is likely to get. Another storm in Canada drew the 1938 hurricane so rapidly northward toward and into New England that it didn't have a chance to weaken over the colder waters along the East Coast.

That's why 1938 was such a disaster.

New England and Vermont are not entirely off the hook with Hurricane Lee just yet. It's still possible it could go more west than current forecasts. We still definitely need to keep an eye on troublemaker Lee. But so far, the consensus seems to want to draw Lee northward east of Cape Cod and then  toward Nova Scotia or New Brunswick.  

Knock on wood. 

As the week goes on, forecasters will get more and more confident about the future track of Hurricane Lee. But if forecasts hold (cross your fingers!) Vermont might get away Saturday or Sunday with just clouds and perhaps some stiff north or northeast breezes.  

Stay tuned!  

Vermont Just Can't Shake Those Flood Threats

Thunderstorms light up the evening sky southeast of
St. Albans Friday evening. We're back in a stormy
pattern here in Vermont.

 I hate the word "flood" is back in the discussion of weather in Vermont this week.

No need to panic, nobody at this point is expected a repeat of the July calamity that befell the Green Mountain State. 

But we've been jumpy ever since, because new heavy rain events have kept cropping up since.

We did have the best reprieve of the summer in the closing days of August and the first few days of September with the longest dry spell since late May and early June.

Now, we're back into the heavy rainers, and strong storms. 

As we reported earlier, there was some urban flooding in and around Burlington Thursday. Later Thursday, the storms moved into southern Vermont, causing more havoc there. Sadly, a Massachusetts man camping in Somerset died when a tree fell on him during the storms.

Areas in and near Manchester on Thursday suffered extensive tree damage, power outages that lasted well into Friday, and some flash flooding.

On Friday, a flash flood warning went up for extreme southeast Vermont went up because up to three inches of rain had fallen in a short period of time during intense thunderstorms. I haven't seen reports of severe flooding down that way, but quarter-sized hail caused a little damage to cars in Brattleboro and high winds blew down trees in Guilford.

Between Thursday and Friday, most of Vermont has gotten a fair amount of rain, which has started to pre-soak the ground again for subsequent storms coming up in the next few days.  Over the next week, forecasts call for two to four inches of additional rain, with locally higher amounts, which could create a few problems. 

We have two more slow moving storms to go at least. The first has a low, but not zero chance of causing more flooding risks in Vermont.  And if things pan out as currently forecast, there's a somewhat greater risk of some flooding Wednesday or Thursday. 

After that, there's a very, very low, but again not zero risk of effects from Hurricane Lee. Let's break it all down, with a note that forecasts could shift from what I have outlined below: 

TODAY

We'll get a break today, both from rain and some of the humidity. Showers look like they'll be few and far between, and most of us will stay dry.  Humidity levels are down, especially in northern Vermont. Temperatures have crashed, too. Highs today will only be in the low to mid 70s, which is about average for this time of year. I'm betting we're done with 90 degree weather until next May or June. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

The cold front that caused yesterday's storms is stalled just to our southeast. New low pressure running a similarly stalled humid southerly flow will come up this way, with a batch of locally heavy rain once again.   

Departing thunderstorms Friday evening east of St. Albans,
Vermont cast an odd glow on the landscape. 

If some heavier thunderstorms can get going in this system, we could have local flash flood problems. Again, nothing at all widespread, but there could be a few instances of unneeded roadside washouts, driveway issues and lowland flooding here and there. 

Most of us should get roughly an inch of rain between Sunday and Monday. It's just those one or two spots that get heavier downpours one after another during this that could spell trouble.  Even if there's no flooding, the ground by the time this is over will be quite soggy again. Squish, squish. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

Now, before I get into this, the forecast could shift dramatically, and put us in the clear. But as of right now, the next storm riding the humid air flow off the Atlantic looks to be a stronger one, and could really dump some heavy rain on us. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center already has most of New England, including Vermont, in a risk zone for some flooding on Wednesday.  It's unusual for them to forecast something like that this far in advance, so I guess they have a higher than normal confidence in the forecast. 

This could be a pretty substantial rainfall, so we'll keep an eye on it. Details to follow as we get closer to the event. 

HURRICANE LEE

Big, bold, powerful Hurricane Lee is still slowly trudging northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean. It has weakened some, with top winds down to a "mere" 115 mph, but forecasts call for it to re-strengthen, at least some, in the coming days. 

As of this morning, Lee was pretty far to the east of Puerto Rico.

It's still expected to continue on that path through Tuesday, and then at some point after that turn north. 

Where it turns north will determine whether Vermont sees any effects of this giant storm.  Right now, projections have Hurricane Lee passing well to our east, possibly slamming into Nova Scotia by next weekend. 

But that's not a given. There's still a TON of factors that could steer Hurricane Lee close to New England, or much more preferably, push it far out to sea so it doesn't hit land at all. 

If we have any effects from Lee in Vermont, it would probably be around Saturday. Right now, I'm not that worried about it. We'll have plenty of warning if it steers toward New England.  I'm kind of comforted that for the past few days, forecasts keep pushing the hurricane at least a little east of New England. 

The coast is under the gun for big waves and coastal flooding. But if projections hold, Vermont would get off with just having a dry, breezy Saturday. We'll see if that welcome (for us, anyway!) trend continues.  

Vermont Heat Wave To Turn Stormy Today, Showers Will Stay For Extended Visit

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has hoisted a slight
risk zone for severe storms in parts of the Northeast,
including much of Vermont today. 

It was definitely a record setting day in Vermont Wednesday as high temperatures statewide went past old marks for the date for sure. 

Burlington made it to 92 degrees, exceeding the old record of  90 set eight years ago. St. Johnsbury got up to 90, besting the old record by one degree. Montpelier also set a record at 86 degrees.

Today will be another hot, humid one, but with a big twist. Many of us will see showers and thunderstorms. The heat dome that capped the atmosphere all week and prevented any cooling storms is breaking down. 

Before the storms arrive, we have a shot at making it to 90 degrees today in the warmer valleys. It's possible a record high will be set in Montpelier today, as the current mark is 88 degrees. I have extreme doubts about Burlington setting a new record today, since the current record high is 94 degrees, set during that strong 2015 hot spell.

THE STORMS 

An approaching front opens the door for showers and storms to blossom this afternoon.  The air is increasingly unstable. As you can tell, there's plenty of humidity for any storms to work with.

That means a few storms could be severe, with damaging winds. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has most of Vermont in a slight risk zone for severe storms.  That means we can expect scattered reports of strong winds today. 

As usual in this type of situation, it's hit and miss. Some places will get absolutely nailed by strong to at least marginally severe storms. Other areas will barely be touched. You can't tell who gets what until right before the event. The best chance of storms today is roughly between 2 and 10 p.m, but a few could pop up a little earlier than that, and a few could linger later. 

It's the usual drill. Have a  way to get weather warnings. Head inside if it looks threatening. Especially if you go under a severe thunderstorm warning. 

With the torrential downpours likely with the strongest storms, the dreaded return of a flash flood risk returns. NOAA has us under a marginal risk for excessive rains today. That's an indication that if any areas of flash flooding develop today, they should be pretty isolated and not at all widespread.

This will NOT be a nightmare scenario like mid-July was. It helps that it hasn't rained lately, so the soil isn't sopping wet anymore. It will be able to absorb some of the rain from the downpours. 

STALLING WEATHER, MORE RAIN

A weather traffic jam is forming in the Atlantic Ocean that will make Vermont's weather to remain on the icky side for a few days. Just how wet and icky is an open question.

A huge dome of warm  high pressure is repositioning itself well off the coast of New England and southeastern Canada. 

Cold fronts coming in from the west over the next few days will smack into this high pressure dome and stall in or near New England. 

That prolongs the showers until everything can clear out, and we're not exactly sure when that will be. 

Where the fronts stall also will determine who gets a lot of rain for the next few days, who gets just a bit, who gets a break from the humidity and who gets stuck with the muggy air for a few more days. 

I almost guarantee there will be at least some showers around Vermont daily from Friday at least into Monday.  You really have to wait until the day before, or even the day of, to get a good idea how much rain you're going to get and what your chances are of getting wet. 

Interestingly, the Storm Prediction Center has very low, but not zero chances of severe storms in parts of Vermont Friday and Saturday. 

That would make three days in a row with some severe weather risk.  That's unusual for September, as severe weather season is definitely waning in New England. 

So far, the risk of flooding from this stalled mess appears low, but it can't be ruled out. If the fronts stall over eastern New England, the rain here in Vermont will be lighter, and it will be noticeably less humid over the weekend. 

If the stalls happen closer to the Green Mountain State, we're at some risk for heavier rain and continued high humidity. Especially east of the Green Mountains. 

Adding to the stalling mess in the Atlantic will be soon to be very powerful Hurricane Lee. It will be moving slower northwestward from its current position way out in the central Atlantic. It'll take until Tuesday for it to get to a position still a good ways east of the Bahamas.

Some long range forecasts continue to hint that Hurricane Lee might turn out to sea and miss the United States. That would be good, but don't hang your hat on that yet.  There are still factors that could end up bringing Lee to near or even on the coast, somewhere.

It's still so far away, really anything could happen. I wouldn't worry about Lee now, but start paying attention next week for updates.