Hurricane Erin Slightly Weaker But Still Mighty. Also, Ignore The Hype Machine

Satellite view of Hurricane Erin just after dawn this
morning. You can't really see the eye as it's going
through what is known as an eyewall replacement
cycle. The hurricane is reorganizing. 

Monster Hurricane Erin as of this morning continues to behave itself about as well as a powerful hurricane can.  

It is still resolutely on course to avoid direct hits on any land, though of course the storm will continue to cause its share of trouble.  

Hurricane Erin has calmed down ever so slightly from its flashy strengthening on Saturday. You'll remember it was an extreme hurricane - Category 5 with top winds of 160 mph.

Early this morning, Erin was down to a top wind speed of 125 mph, the National Hurricane Center tells us.  That's still wicked dangerous, but it's no longer quite at the top of the scale. 

Last night, Hurricane Erin looks like it is going through  began to go through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle. You might be familiar with the eye of a hurricane, that small clear center surrounded by the storm's most powerful winds.

That circle of powerful winds around the center of a hurricane is called the eyewall. The eye of a hurricane.  An eyewall replacement cycle is when it sort of collapses and forms a new eyewall, often larger than the original.

When this happens, a hurricane will usually weaken. They can re-strengthen after the cycle is complete. That might happen with Erin, but predicting the strength of a hurricane is even harder than forecasting its path. 

Hurricane Erin continues more or less on its predicted path, says the National Hurricane Center.  Its turn to the north might be a little more gradual than some previous forecasts, but it's happening.

The hurricane is getting larger in size, so islands pretty far from its center will see some rough weather. 

The Turks and Caicos Islands are under a tropical storm warning and the eastern Bahamas are under a tropical storm watch because the outer bands of Hurricane Erin will lash those places as it passes by to the east.  

AVOIDING THE HYPE

Ignore any clickbait you'll see on social media regarding Hurricane Erin. It's not going to hit Florida. And at worse, it's only going to give a glancing blow to North Carolina's Outer Banks. 

There will probably be some big waves and dangerous rip currents from Hurricane Erin on Florida's east coast,  and the rest of the U.S. East Coast for that matter, but that's about it. 

Floridians have some very understandable PTSD when it comes to hurricanes, given the storms they've had in recent years.  Telling everyone online that Florida is going to get hit by Erin is great for clicks and revenue, but pretty cruel and unethical when you know that's not going to happen. 

To be clear, my dear Floridians: Don't worry about Erin unless you plan to go swimming at Daytona Beach or something like that. 

If you want the best, most accurate forecasts about storms like Erin, go to the National Hurricane Center. 

Almost all the information I share about Hurricane Erin, or any tropical storm or hurricane I mention in this here blog thingy comes almost completely from the National Hurricane Center.

That's by far the most reliable source of information and forecasts for any tropical storm. Yes, Trump budget cuts have hurt the National Hurricane Center, but they're still doing fantastic work keeping us safe with their storm forecasts. 

Other great and reliable sources of hurricane information are The Weather Channel and a lot of local meteorologists near where you live. If you're in Florida, especially near Miami, pay attention to John Morales, who is really just about the top hurricane forecaster out there. If you're in Texas, especially the Houston area, rely on Matt Lanza, he's also top of the line. 

Lanza has a tropical weather blog called The Eyewall, which is a must-read for anyone worried about hurricanes and tropical storms. 

Tuesday Evening Hurricane Milton Update: Grim Monster Continues Push Toward Florida

 Hurricane Milton remains a monster. 

Visible satellite view of Hurricane Milton late Tuesday
afternoon. Click on the pic to make it bigger and easy to
see. The main central swirl around the eye looks like a buzzsaw.

After re-arranging its eye during the morning and losing just a slight bit of steam,  Hurricane Milton reasserted itself and gained almost all of its previous power. Plus, it's a larger storm now. 

As of late this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Milton was a Category 5 with top winds of 165 mph. It was 480 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida and heading in that general direction. 

Yeah, it sucks to put it mildly. 

The forecast track has shifted southward by the tiniest smidge. That raises some tentative hope that it will pass a little south of Tampa Bay. 

If that were to happen - and there is absolutely NO guarantee that it will - the storm surge in Tampa Bay would be a little less than the current dire 10 to 15 feet. But don't count on it. Plus, "a little less" is still a huge danger. 

The "cone of uncertainty," which is the zone in which Hurricane Milton could make landfall, could be as far north as a spot 60 miles north of Tampa. Remember, a path over or just north of Tampa Bay would yield the worst storm surge possible in Tampa Bay, due to the topography of the land around the bay. 

On the other hand, Hurricane Milton could come ashore as far south as Cape Coral, about 100 miles south of Tampa.  

In other words, anybody who is in an evacuation zone in Florida and hasn't left yet should flee now if not sooner. 

If this evening's projected path is spot on, it would come ashore near around metro Sarasota, which has a population of about 835,000.

Also remember that Hurricane Milton is expanding in size, and that trend will continue. As of late this afternoon, tropical force storm winds extend out 140 miles from Milton's eye. That area could double by the time Hurricane Milton is approaching Florida. 

Late Tuesday afternoon forecasts have tropical force winds of 39 mph or more, and the beginnings of a storm surge should be starting not long after noon tomorrow on Florida's Gulf Coast. It will be too late to get out of way of the storm tomorrow. 

By the time Hurricane Milton reaches the Florida coast, upper level winds and an approaching front from the north will be trying to weaken the storm. But it will be too little, too late. Top winds are forecast to be 125 mph with higher gusts at landfall..

And a last minute reduction in wind speeds won't translate to a lower storm surge. 

Often when a hurricane is beginning to weaken, the south side of the storm has the higher winds. This time, it might be the north side that has the most ferocious winds. So even if the center of Milton passes a little south of Tampa, the winds would be super destructive, even if the storm surge ends up being a little less than the more dire forecasts.

So Tampa really can't win here. 

Hurricane force winds will blast across all of central Florida coast to coast overnight Wednesday and into Thursday. 

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PEOPLE

Like I mentioned, people who did not evacuate from the storm surge area are in deep, deep trouble. 

Much like in Helene, Florida officials told people who choose not to evacuate from vulnerable areas to mark their names and date of birth on their arms with permanent marker so officials can identify their bodies later. 

Emergency managers said they were able to conduct a few water rescues in Florida during Hurricane Helene's storm surge. That won't be the case with more powerful Hurricane Milton. They told residents if don't leave by noon Wednesday, they are on their own. Nobody will come to rescue them when the water rises. 

Of course, I have to wonder about the welfare of some of the people who heeded warnings and evacuated. Some people don't have the means to evacuate from danger zones are doing. What if you don't have a car? How do you escape?  Just the cost of travel, accommodations in an evacuation can easily cost $500 or more.  A lot of  people don't have that kind of money lying around. So do they hunker down and hope for the best? 

Do people deserve to die in a hurricane for the "sin" of not having enough income?

There are shelters that have opened in public buildings on high ground for some of these storm surge refugees, but is there room for all of them?

Much of Florida is now shutting down as the storm bears down.

Tampa International Airport closed this morning. Orlando's airport shuts down tomorrow morning. Walt Disney World and Universal in Orlando as of this afternoon were staying open, perhaps unwisely, though campgrounds in wooded areas are closing for fear of falling trees.

As of this evening, nobody is allowed access to barrier islands off the southwest Florida coast.  If there are any stragglers still in homes on the barrier islands, they'll still be allowed to flee. But time is running short. 

President Biden canceled planned trips to Germany and Angola to monitor the hurricane. 

Downtown Tampa looked like a ghost town by Tuesday afternoon. The normally bustling area was almost devoid of cars and pedestrians, and businesses were either closed or shutting down operations until after the storm. 

I haven't mentioned climate change in most of these updates as I'm mostly focusing on the immediate impacts of this storm. But many aspects of Hurricane Milton are at least consistent with climate change. I'll get into that in a future post, once we catch our breath for this latest sure to be deadly and expensive calamity. 

 

Hurricane Beryl Stuns With Early Season Power

Satellite view of impressive Hurricane Beryl on
Sunday, the first Category 4 storm on record
to form in the Atlantic. 

 Hurricane Beryl, which I reported yesterday would get a lot stronger, really over-performed even those expectations. 

As of noon today, Beryl was a Category 4 powerhouse, with top sustained winds of 135 mph. Meteorologists and climatologists are stunned that a hurricane this early in the season would get so strong. 

It's easily the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean. The previous record hold was Hurricane Dennis in the very busy year of 2005.

Hurricane Beryl does seem to be a harbinger of a very busy hurricane season. As I mentioned yesterday, Atlantic waters in many areas are at or near record warmth. Weather patterns are also expected to favor hurricanes this year. 

Although it's hard to tie specific weather events to climate change, Hurricane Beryl is definitely consistent with what to expect as the world warms. The oceans are getting warmer, making it easier for hurricanes to form and become stronger than they otherwise would be. 

Category 4's are almost always limited to the August into the first part of October. Category 4 hurricanes have winds of between 130 and 156 mph.

Even slightly weaker Category 3 storms, still regarded as major hurricanes are exceedingly rare in June. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"Before now, the Atlantic has only ever seen two major hurricanes during June - Audrey in 1957 and Alma in 1966. 'Major' hurricanes are this rated as Category 3 or higher. Both Audrey and Alma occurred in the Gulf of Mexico as early-season 'homegrown' storms. The Atlantic's Main Development Region, located between northern South America and Africa, was always believed to be inhospitable to major hurricanes during the month of June - until now."

Hurricane warnings are now up for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine islands, Grenada and Tobago.

Beryl will probably slam those islands Monday, then head into the central Caribbean Sea.  Once it gets there, stronger upper level winds will start disrupting the hurricane's tall thunderstorms, making the overall hurricane slowly weaken.

It is still forecast to be a hurricane, though, by the time it approaches Mexico by the end of the week. Though Mexico is the most likely target, Beryl could veer north toward the Gulf of Mexico, or divert toward central America. 

Another disturbance Sunday along the coast of Mexico in the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico could turn into a tropical depression or storm later today before it moves ashore by tomorrow morning. Another disturbance way out in the central Atlantic that's roughly following the path of Beryl could become a tropical storm within a few days. 

 

Vermont Getting Lucky With Storms, Rest Of New England, Not So Much

Severe flooding in Leominster, Mass.
Monday. Photo by Judy Jollimore.

If you live in Vermont, you might have been justified to complain a little about the gloomy, overcast conditions that lingered all day, or at least most of the day. 

You'll be pleased to know, though, we dodged another weather bullet. And more bullets flying in our general direction look destined to miss, too.

We've been dealing with a nearly stalled weather front over New England since last Thursday, which has caused round after round of storms in various parts of the region. 

The front settled just to the south and east of Vermont Monday, leaving us in the cool-ish damp murk.

MASSACHUSETTS DISASTER

The southeastern half of New England was still on the warm,  humid side of the stalled front, and that's been causing flash flooding from torrential downpours since Saturday.

Yesterday, all hell broke loose in central Massachusetts, and to a slightly lesser extent in Rhode Island and Connecticut.

In Massachusetts, training thunderstorms, one after another going over the same spot, unleashed incredible downpours and flash floods, especially around Leominster, Fitchburg and surrounding communities. 

Leominster had 9.5 inches of rain in just a few hours. (The entire month of September there normally yields less than half that amount of rain).  Fitchburg, Massachusetts got a whopping 2.77 inches of rain in just one hour and a storm total of five inches. 

Numerous houses and businesses were flooded, at least one building collapsed in Leominster, and you basically couldn't get around town since all the roads were under water. This flood was on par with the inundation we got here in Vermont back in July, except yesterday's Massachusetts mess covered a smaller area. 

WEDNESDAY STORM

The next storm we have been talking about for days is still on track to hit New England tomorrow. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center continues to have most of the region, including Vermont, in a slight risk area for flash floods. 

I think the real danger zone might be southern New England again, which is most likely to get some torrential thunderstorms with this. 

A strong cold front will accompany this system. Here in Vermont, this thing should generally be well behaved, dumping less than an inch of rain on us through the day.  The isolated flash flood risk comes if any thunderstorms can get going just ahead of the cold front. The heavier downpours with those thunderstorms could cause a  high water problem here or there. It doesn't look like anything widespread will happen here. 

The cold front will give us a belated new introduction to autumn. In Burlington, Vermont it has been continuously above 60 degrees since the morning of September 2, which is a very strangely long time to stay that warm. 

This will end tomorrow night as both delightfully dry air with normal temperatures for mid-September finally arrive.

HURRICANE LEE

Though things could still change, it continues to look like Hurricane Lee won't be that big a deal here in Vermont. If the forecast track holds, it could end up being pretty breezy Saturday and/or Sunday, but beyond that, not much. Again, if the forecast track verifies, Vermont probably will get no rain, or at least very little rain from this hurricane.

For a few days now, the computer models, generally speaking have been making Hurricane Lee make landfall somewhere near western Nova Scotia. That the forecasts have been consistent on this gives me a little more confidence that this path will become reality. 

Again, though, hurricanes can always surprise. If the track of the storm goes much further west than expected, though, all bets are off. 

However, it looks like southern and especially eastern New England will take the brunt of this. As Hurricane Lee moves north, its top winds will weaken, but the area raked by strong winds will expand. That means coastal New England, especially Rhode Island on north to Maine, can expect high tides, large wages, beach erosion, and especially in eastern Maine, heavy rain.

The timing is still a bit of a question  mark, as some models bring Lee to near New England early Saturday, while some hold off until early Sunday. 

We still have to keep an eye on this, but if you have weekend plans for Provincetown, Nantucket or Bar Harbor,  you might want to reconsider.