Florida Weather Now Deteriorating As Ferocious Hurricane Milton Aims At Late Night Landfall

Dawn breaking on Hurricane Milton this morning in
this visible satellite photo. As you can see, it's nearing
Florida, and nothing has changed about the dread
of how powerful this thing will be when it hits. 

 Early this morning, the weather was already getting lousy - and in a couple instances dangerous - as the influence of powerful Hurricane Milton begin to overspread Florida.  

Things will get worse and worse through the day and evening in advance of the big blow we've been nervously anticipating. 

No miracles happened overnight. Hurricane Milton maintained its Category 5 strength as it makes its way toward Florida. 

The overall forecast hasn't really changed for the past three days and it hasn't changed this morning. Winds won't be 160 mph at landfall - they'll be slightly less than that. 

But that slightly less intense wind doesn't matter at all.  This will very likely be one of the worst hurricanes in Florida's history, which is saying something. The Sunshine State has a long history of incredibly deadly, destructive storms. 

Those historic storms range from the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 which killed more than 400 people in and near the Florida Keys, to Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which decimated towns south of Miami and killed more than 60 people, to Hurricane Michael in 2018, which pretty much leveled Mexico Beach, Florida and surrounding communities, but people got out of the way of that storm, so the death toll was limited to 16.

I'm hoping everybody is out of the way of Milton before it gets to Florida. Stragglers have maybe a few hours to flee this morning, but even that is iffy. 

MILTON'S MORNING STATUS

At 4 a.m. Hurricane Milton still had top winds of 160 mph. It was about 300 miles southwest of Tampa and heading toward the northeast at 14 miles per hour. Its forward speed is expected to increase during the day today. 

Those winds decreased ever so slightly to 155 mph by 8 a.m. but that really doesn't make much of a difference as to what's going to happen. 

Tropical storm force winds extended outward 125 miles from the center of Hurricane Milton, and that wind field is forecast to get larger today. That means it won't be all that long before tropical storm force winds and the start of storm surges will hit the Florida Gulf Coast. Those gusty, strong winds will probably be on the coast by early afternoon. 

Trouble is also brewing well ahead of Hurricane Milton.  

Ominously, there has already been reports of minor storm surge flooding along parts of the Florida Gulf Coast. So imagine how bad things will get when the hurricane arrives tonight. 

Outer rainbands and outflow storms from the hurricane are already moving into Florida, setting up a situation where tornadoes can develop.  A tornado warning was already in effect for a time after 7 a.m. today east of Fort Myers. 

As the rain bands become more forceful this afternoon, some of the thunderstorms will break up into individual supercells this afternoon, which have the potential to spin off tornadoes, a couple of which might be quite strong, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center

HEART OF THE STORM

The big trouble comes tonight, of course, as Milton is expected to crash ashore sometime around midnight, give or take.  

Everybody's talking about the storm surge, which makes sense because this would be the deadliest and most dangerous part of Hurricane Milton. 

Screen grab of video of what the Hurricane Ian storm surge
in Fort Myers Beach, Florida in 2022. Hurricane Milton's
storm surge is expected to be at least this bad, and will
hit in the dark of night, making it even more terrifying.

If - and this is a huge if - Hurricane Milton makes landfall south of Tampa, then the storm surge in parts of Tampa Bay would be not as dire as some forecast make it out to be. 

Still, it would be bad, with some eastern parts of the bay seeing 6 to as much as 12 feet of storm surge. But the potential is still there for up to 15 feet, so if you live in the Tampa Bay area and fled the hurricane, you made a very smart move. 

Even if the storm surge isn't as bad as the worst forecasts in Tampa Bay, that metro area is going to have a whole host of huge other problems caused by Hurricane Milton. I'll get into those in a bit. 

The worst storm surges will hit right where Milton comes ashore and points slightly south of that. That probably means Sarasota and the barrier islands near it.

Also, the bay that makes up Charlotte Harbor around Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda is oriented in a similar fashion to Tampa Bay. Since Charlotte Harbor is near or a little south of the expected path of Milton, water will really pile up in this bay to form an incredible destructive storm surge. 

The bottom line is the current best guess for worst storm surge will run between Bradenton and Fort Myers. Though destructive storm surges are possible north and especially south of that range.

One odd note is that a few "lucky" places north of Milton's path might end up with intense east winds that actually pull water away from the shore. Hard to say exactly where, so don't count on it. But those few spots might actually see much below normal water levels at the coast. 

Strong hurricanes tend to wobble in their paths, so Hurricane Milton could still jog north into Tampa or south toward Punta Gorda. So we have no guarantees on who gets the worst storm surge. 

To give you an idea of how terrifying storm surges like this, click on this link to watch the storm surge with Hurricane Ian at Fort Myers Beach two years ago.  If you see the  image below, click on that to watch the video. When you do, notice the house washing away and getting flattened.  The storm surge with Hurricane Milton will be at least as bad, and will come in the dark of night. You can see why you can't survive something like this. 

HIGH WINDS

The expected peak winds with Hurricane Milton could be near 130 mph at landfall. The hurricane will race across the state overnight and Thursday, spreading hurricane force winds across central Florida all the way through the Atlantic coast. 

There's going to be huge power outages, massive tree damage and structural damage coast to coast in Florida. Many people will have no electricity for weeks. This includes heavily populated areas like Tampa, Orlando, Daytona and Melbourne. 

If current forecasts hold, Tampa will end up on the northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton. Due to a weather front impinging on the northern edge of Milton, the wind should be particularly fierce in the Tampa area. Mobile homes will be completely unsafe.  Roofs will blow off homes and commercial buildings. Trees will smash into many other homes. 

FLOODING

In addition to the particularly intense winds expected around Tampa, the rain with Hurricane Milton seems likely to be the most ferocious near Tampa. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center expects a foot or more of rain in and near Tampa in a short period of time that will cause, as they put it,  "widespread and catastrophic flooding in the Tampa area tonight."

That kind of rain can't drain will from the relatively flat terrain. And any storm surges would block that runoff from entering Tampa Bay. All this means that even homes in the Tampa metro area that technically are safe from storm surges will get flooded anyway, just due to the rain and wind. 

Elsewhere across central Florida, a good 8 to 12 inches of rain is in the forecast, so the flooding will be intense there, too. 

BOTTOM LINE

All of the above is what is expected out of Hurricane Milton. As always, there will be some adjustments, some surprises, perhaps a glimmer of good news and some tragedies. 

At this point, there isn't much anybody can do to stop this or prepare. People only  have a few hours left this morning to rush their preparations to completion. 

Hurricane Helene a couple weeks ago caused more than 230 deaths, the highest toll from a United States hurricane since Katrina in 2005.  I guess all we can hope for now is that enough people have gotten out of the way of Hurricane Milton so that we don't see a full repeat of Helene's grim legacy. 

Tuesday Evening Hurricane Milton Update: Grim Monster Continues Push Toward Florida

 Hurricane Milton remains a monster. 

Visible satellite view of Hurricane Milton late Tuesday
afternoon. Click on the pic to make it bigger and easy to
see. The main central swirl around the eye looks like a buzzsaw.

After re-arranging its eye during the morning and losing just a slight bit of steam,  Hurricane Milton reasserted itself and gained almost all of its previous power. Plus, it's a larger storm now. 

As of late this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Milton was a Category 5 with top winds of 165 mph. It was 480 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida and heading in that general direction. 

Yeah, it sucks to put it mildly. 

The forecast track has shifted southward by the tiniest smidge. That raises some tentative hope that it will pass a little south of Tampa Bay. 

If that were to happen - and there is absolutely NO guarantee that it will - the storm surge in Tampa Bay would be a little less than the current dire 10 to 15 feet. But don't count on it. Plus, "a little less" is still a huge danger. 

The "cone of uncertainty," which is the zone in which Hurricane Milton could make landfall, could be as far north as a spot 60 miles north of Tampa. Remember, a path over or just north of Tampa Bay would yield the worst storm surge possible in Tampa Bay, due to the topography of the land around the bay. 

On the other hand, Hurricane Milton could come ashore as far south as Cape Coral, about 100 miles south of Tampa.  

In other words, anybody who is in an evacuation zone in Florida and hasn't left yet should flee now if not sooner. 

If this evening's projected path is spot on, it would come ashore near around metro Sarasota, which has a population of about 835,000.

Also remember that Hurricane Milton is expanding in size, and that trend will continue. As of late this afternoon, tropical force storm winds extend out 140 miles from Milton's eye. That area could double by the time Hurricane Milton is approaching Florida. 

Late Tuesday afternoon forecasts have tropical force winds of 39 mph or more, and the beginnings of a storm surge should be starting not long after noon tomorrow on Florida's Gulf Coast. It will be too late to get out of way of the storm tomorrow. 

By the time Hurricane Milton reaches the Florida coast, upper level winds and an approaching front from the north will be trying to weaken the storm. But it will be too little, too late. Top winds are forecast to be 125 mph with higher gusts at landfall..

And a last minute reduction in wind speeds won't translate to a lower storm surge. 

Often when a hurricane is beginning to weaken, the south side of the storm has the higher winds. This time, it might be the north side that has the most ferocious winds. So even if the center of Milton passes a little south of Tampa, the winds would be super destructive, even if the storm surge ends up being a little less than the more dire forecasts.

So Tampa really can't win here. 

Hurricane force winds will blast across all of central Florida coast to coast overnight Wednesday and into Thursday. 

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PEOPLE

Like I mentioned, people who did not evacuate from the storm surge area are in deep, deep trouble. 

Much like in Helene, Florida officials told people who choose not to evacuate from vulnerable areas to mark their names and date of birth on their arms with permanent marker so officials can identify their bodies later. 

Emergency managers said they were able to conduct a few water rescues in Florida during Hurricane Helene's storm surge. That won't be the case with more powerful Hurricane Milton. They told residents if don't leave by noon Wednesday, they are on their own. Nobody will come to rescue them when the water rises. 

Of course, I have to wonder about the welfare of some of the people who heeded warnings and evacuated. Some people don't have the means to evacuate from danger zones are doing. What if you don't have a car? How do you escape?  Just the cost of travel, accommodations in an evacuation can easily cost $500 or more.  A lot of  people don't have that kind of money lying around. So do they hunker down and hope for the best? 

Do people deserve to die in a hurricane for the "sin" of not having enough income?

There are shelters that have opened in public buildings on high ground for some of these storm surge refugees, but is there room for all of them?

Much of Florida is now shutting down as the storm bears down.

Tampa International Airport closed this morning. Orlando's airport shuts down tomorrow morning. Walt Disney World and Universal in Orlando as of this afternoon were staying open, perhaps unwisely, though campgrounds in wooded areas are closing for fear of falling trees.

As of this evening, nobody is allowed access to barrier islands off the southwest Florida coast.  If there are any stragglers still in homes on the barrier islands, they'll still be allowed to flee. But time is running short. 

President Biden canceled planned trips to Germany and Angola to monitor the hurricane. 

Downtown Tampa looked like a ghost town by Tuesday afternoon. The normally bustling area was almost devoid of cars and pedestrians, and businesses were either closed or shutting down operations until after the storm. 

I haven't mentioned climate change in most of these updates as I'm mostly focusing on the immediate impacts of this storm. But many aspects of Hurricane Milton are at least consistent with climate change. I'll get into that in a future post, once we catch our breath for this latest sure to be deadly and expensive calamity. 

 

Monday Evening Update: Monster Milton Has Floridians Fleeing Grave Danger

Satellite view of Hurricane Milton late this afternoon.
If you click on the image to make it bigger and
easier to see, you'll notice a tiny eye, which is
often what you see in extremely strong hurricanes.
The clouds around the eye are arranged like a 
stadium would look like, another sign of a powerful storm

Hurricane Milton spent the day making history and also making Floridians, emergency managers and meteorologists quake in their boots.  

By late this afternoon, Hurricane Milton has strengthened to a monster Category 5 storm with top winds of 180 mph. (A hurricane needs to be at least at 157 mph to reach Category 5, so Milton is there by a long shot.

Only five Atlantic Ocean hurricanes on record have had stronger winds than Milton and three others were as strong. And Milton could get stronger yet before factors come together to cause a gradual weakening.

Again, I hate to use the word "weakening" because this is an enormous threat to Florida's Gulf coast. Just ask the experts: 

"If the storm stays on the current track, it will be the worst storm to impact the Tampa area in over 100 years," the National Weather Service office in Tampa, Florida warned.

"Unless we get extremely lucky, Milton will be one of the biggest hurricane disasters in history," said Bryan Norcross, one of the nation's leading hurricane experts. 

Meteorologist John Morales, with decades of hurricane forecasting under his belt, became emotional when explaining the hurricane to viewers today. It's that bad.

The overall forecast for Hurricane Milton hasn't really changed since this morning, despite it being even stronger than almost any forecast had anticipated.

It's going to scrape by the northern Yucatan peninsula tonight, raking that coastline with hurricane force winds.

Milton is just about making its turn toward the northeast for its eventual destination in Florida. At the strength it's at now, we can expect some variations in its strength before a weakening trend begins Wednesday.

The storm does have an opportunity tomorrow to get even more intense than it is now.

Hurricane Milton as powerful as it is, is relatively small in size. Hurricane force winds late this afternoon only extended out 30 miles from its tiny intense eye.

After Hurricane Milton peaks in intensity and begins to weaken a bit, the storm will also grow much larger. That's bad, because it will be able to push more Gulf of Mexico water into the Florida as a giant storm surge ahead of and during its expected landfall Wednesday night. 

If Milton goes over or a wee bit north of Tampa, the storm surge could be up to 15 feet tall. That's double what Helene managed less than two weeks ago, causing over a $1 billion in damage in Florida and causing 12 deaths. 

If Milton goes a little south of Tampa, the storm surge there will be still be catastrophic, and those potentially 15 foot storm surges could instead hit places like Sarasota or Fort Myers. 

One small piece of news about Hurricane Milton that's at least vaguely gratifying. News footage today has been showing a mass exodus out of the Tampa metro and nearby areas under the greatest threat from the storm.

Almost all those outbound vehicles represent potential lives saved because their occupants are driving away from the unsurvivable storm surge zone.

MILTON STATS

Some stats I've come across that explain why meteorologist were agog at how fast Hurricane Milton strengthened and how strong it got.

Milton's top wind speed increased by 90 mph within 24 hours. Only Felix in 2007 (100 mph in 24 hours) and Wilma in 2005 (105 mph in 24 hours, were faster, said hurricane and storm surge expert Michael Lowry. 

Milton is the second Category 5 hurricane this year (Beryl was the first one). It's only the 8th hurricane season to have two such strong storms. The others were 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017 and 2019, reported hurricane researcher Michael Ferragamo

Notice how four of those years were pretty recent. Makes you think those increasing water temperatures out there due to climate change might be one reason (but probably not the only reason)why we have such strong storms.

Another oddity about Milton is its the only known Category 5 hurricane since at least 1851 that moved toward the southeast. noted atmospheric scientist Tomer Burg. All the others headed in other directions, mostly toward the west or northwest.  

This is already a historic storm, and will very likely be one of the worst on record for the United States. It's a scary thought that perhaps by Wednesday or Thursday, we will have had two of the worst hurricanes hitting the U.S. within two weeks of each other.