Monday Evening Update: Monster Milton Has Floridians Fleeing Grave Danger

Satellite view of Hurricane Milton late this afternoon.
If you click on the image to make it bigger and
easier to see, you'll notice a tiny eye, which is
often what you see in extremely strong hurricanes.
The clouds around the eye are arranged like a 
stadium would look like, another sign of a powerful storm

Hurricane Milton spent the day making history and also making Floridians, emergency managers and meteorologists quake in their boots.  

By late this afternoon, Hurricane Milton has strengthened to a monster Category 5 storm with top winds of 180 mph. (A hurricane needs to be at least at 157 mph to reach Category 5, so Milton is there by a long shot.

Only five Atlantic Ocean hurricanes on record have had stronger winds than Milton and three others were as strong. And Milton could get stronger yet before factors come together to cause a gradual weakening.

Again, I hate to use the word "weakening" because this is an enormous threat to Florida's Gulf coast. Just ask the experts: 

"If the storm stays on the current track, it will be the worst storm to impact the Tampa area in over 100 years," the National Weather Service office in Tampa, Florida warned.

"Unless we get extremely lucky, Milton will be one of the biggest hurricane disasters in history," said Bryan Norcross, one of the nation's leading hurricane experts. 

Meteorologist John Morales, with decades of hurricane forecasting under his belt, became emotional when explaining the hurricane to viewers today. It's that bad.

The overall forecast for Hurricane Milton hasn't really changed since this morning, despite it being even stronger than almost any forecast had anticipated.

It's going to scrape by the northern Yucatan peninsula tonight, raking that coastline with hurricane force winds.

Milton is just about making its turn toward the northeast for its eventual destination in Florida. At the strength it's at now, we can expect some variations in its strength before a weakening trend begins Wednesday.

The storm does have an opportunity tomorrow to get even more intense than it is now.

Hurricane Milton as powerful as it is, is relatively small in size. Hurricane force winds late this afternoon only extended out 30 miles from its tiny intense eye.

After Hurricane Milton peaks in intensity and begins to weaken a bit, the storm will also grow much larger. That's bad, because it will be able to push more Gulf of Mexico water into the Florida as a giant storm surge ahead of and during its expected landfall Wednesday night. 

If Milton goes over or a wee bit north of Tampa, the storm surge could be up to 15 feet tall. That's double what Helene managed less than two weeks ago, causing over a $1 billion in damage in Florida and causing 12 deaths. 

If Milton goes a little south of Tampa, the storm surge there will be still be catastrophic, and those potentially 15 foot storm surges could instead hit places like Sarasota or Fort Myers. 

One small piece of news about Hurricane Milton that's at least vaguely gratifying. News footage today has been showing a mass exodus out of the Tampa metro and nearby areas under the greatest threat from the storm.

Almost all those outbound vehicles represent potential lives saved because their occupants are driving away from the unsurvivable storm surge zone.

MILTON STATS

Some stats I've come across that explain why meteorologist were agog at how fast Hurricane Milton strengthened and how strong it got.

Milton's top wind speed increased by 90 mph within 24 hours. Only Felix in 2007 (100 mph in 24 hours) and Wilma in 2005 (105 mph in 24 hours, were faster, said hurricane and storm surge expert Michael Lowry. 

Milton is the second Category 5 hurricane this year (Beryl was the first one). It's only the 8th hurricane season to have two such strong storms. The others were 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017 and 2019, reported hurricane researcher Michael Ferragamo

Notice how four of those years were pretty recent. Makes you think those increasing water temperatures out there due to climate change might be one reason (but probably not the only reason)why we have such strong storms.

Another oddity about Milton is its the only known Category 5 hurricane since at least 1851 that moved toward the southeast. noted atmospheric scientist Tomer Burg. All the others headed in other directions, mostly toward the west or northwest.  

This is already a historic storm, and will very likely be one of the worst on record for the United States. It's a scary thought that perhaps by Wednesday or Thursday, we will have had two of the worst hurricanes hitting the U.S. within two weeks of each other. 

Category 5 Hurricane Beryl Continues To Amaze Amid Windward Island Destruction

Formidable Category 5 Hurricane Beryl late
Tuesday morning over the Caribbean. 

 Despite the idea this was impossible at the very start of July, Hurricane Beryl last night grew to a Category 5 storm - the most intense possible - with top sustained winds of an incredible 165 mph. 

This, after trashing some of the Windward Islands as a high end Category 4 yesterday with sustained winds of 150 mph. 

Category 5 hurricanes are relatively rare in the Atlantic Ocean, but have been becoming a little more common in recent years. 

However, such powerhouses were considered virtually impossible until August and September, when oceans reach their peak temperatures and atmospheric conditions are most primed to pump a hurricane to its maximum potential.

With ocean temperatures in and near the Caribbean Sea at record highs and at readings more typical for around Labor Day, Beryl was able to become the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record for so early in the season.

This, after setting records for the earliest major hurricane known to have formed east of the Windward Islands. When it was just getting its act together last week, it was also the furthest east in the Atlantic a tropical storm is known to have popped up in June.  

All this is a combination of a perfect set of conditions to make Beryl a monster, and probably climate change, which is serving to warm oceans more and more. This creates better and better incubators for hurricanes. 

DAMAGE AND FUTURE

As you might expect, Beryl devastated the islands it hit on Monday.

Says the Washington Post:

"Grenada and the nation of St. Vincent and the Grenadines were reeling from a storm that probably will be the region's most intense hurricane on record.

'In half an hour, Carriacou was flattened,' Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said Monday. 

At least one person died on St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the prime minister said Monday evening. 'There may well be more fatalities,' Ralph Gonsalves said in an address to the nation, adding that hundreds of houses had been severely damaged or destroyed in the country, including on the main island of St. Vincent."

Latest reports as of early this afternoon suggest seven deaths have already been reported in association with the storm.

Beryl has finally reached peak strength. I can't image it possibly getting any stronger anyway. But stronger upper level winds will steadily weaken Beryl as it moves west to northwest across the Caribbean Sea toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.  

The weakening trend will start this afternoon, but Beryl will still be a pretty intense hurricane as it passes over or  close by Jamaica tomorrow. By then, it will be a little less powerful than it was this morning, but still an intense, destructive hurricane. 

Beryl will eventually probably pass over the Yucatan Peninsula and menace northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. But by then it might be reduced to a tropical storm or a much less formidable hurricane than it is now. 

 

 

Deadly Texas Tornado Seemed More Chaotic Than Most

Image from Val and Amy Castors' live stream as they
drove in Matador, Texas immediately after a 
powerful tornado passed through. 

 Maybe it's because of the wide availability of immediate social media images, but the tragic tornado that struck the small town of Matador, Texas seemed especially chaotic and scary. 

The tiny town of about 570 residents was slammed Wednesday by a huge tornado coming in from the north. The storm killed four residents and left 10 others injured. Most of the western half of Matador was leveled.

The twister was wrapped with a thick curtain of torrential rain and hail, making the whole thing seem especially apocalyptic. 

The National Weather Service office in Lubbock, Texas said the parent thunderstorm developed explosively north of Matador and soon produced the tornado that trashed the town. A post-storm investigation revealed the tornado was a strong EF-3 with top winds of 165 mph.

The tornado was about a quarter mile wide and traveled 9.4 miles. Honestly, it was just badly located. 

The tornado had to be intense. The engine of a car was torn out of the vehicle and entire houses and buildings were leveled. Grass was scoured out of fields.

As a side note, I'm a little perplexed by whether people on Twitter upset and angry that the Matador tornado didn't get a higher rating.  Tornadoes are rated from EF-0 to EF-5, with EF-5 being the most intense -and rare.

The critics say they think the damage warranted an EF-4 or EF-5.  But the National Weather Service office in Lubbock worked with Texas Tech University National Wind Institute to estimate tornado wind speed based on structure damage in Matador. 

Of course, the rating doesn't really matter to the people in Matador who had to deal with the twister. 

 Adding to the chaos was large hail that accompanied the huge storm. Hailstones were as large as 4.5 inches in diameter, or about the size of a grapefruit. 

Video taken just as the tornado was leaving Matador appeared to show breaks in the clouds and winds and rain diminishing. That's pretty common in the moments immediately after a tornado passes.

But that was only a very brief interlude. Within perhaps two minutes, another supercell thunderstorm  intense hail and blinding, wind driven rain arrived just as rescuers began attempts to pull people from the wreckage. That turn of events is rather unusual and made the aftermath all the more hellish.

The second storm finally left Matador around 10 p.m, around two agonizing hours after the tornado hit. 

 Large tornadoes are common in the Texas Panhandle, but it's rare for two twisters within a month, never mind a week, to cause deaths in the region. 

A twister hit Perryton, Texas on June 15, killing three people and injuring about 50 others. 

The four deaths in Matador were the most from a single Texas tornado since 2015.

The Texas Panhandle has vast tracts of open land sparsely dotted by small towns and two larger cities, Amarillo and Lubbock.   t's very easy for a tornado to travel ten miles in the Texas panhandle without hitting anything important. So the Matador tornado was very bad luck. 

This isn't the first time a destructive tornado marauded through Matador. A twister in May, 1984 destroyed about 30 homes in Matador. 

Video: KWTV storm chasers followed the tornado into Matador, and were stunned to see the damage when they arrived in town. Very dramatic video. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: