Hurricane Beryl Not Going Down Without A Fight

Satellite view of Hurricane Beryl shows it looking
much less organized and symmetrical than 
yesterday as strong upper level winds 
disrupt it, but it's still managing to hold on
as a powerful, dangerous storm. 

 As of this afternoon, Jamaica is the latest island to be trashed by extreme, intense oddball Hurricane Beryl as the storm gets ready to hit, or at least make a close pass at that nation.  

Despite more than 24 hours of a hostile upper atmosphere, Hurricane Beryl still had maximum sustained winds of 140  mph as of late this afternoon.

 The storm still has the Cayman Islands, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and possibly southern Texas in its sights. 

Hurricanes don't like strong upper level winds. Those winds disrupt the nice round circulation of tall powerful thunderstorms that make up the ring of scary weather around the storm's eye.

When those upper level winds - known as shear - hit a hurricane they almost always weaken. 

Such is the case with Beryl, but the process has been stubbornly slow.  It's amazing that after 24 hours of westerly upper level winds, the central winds were still that 140 mph late this afternoon, down from its peak of 165 mph yesterday.  

If anything, Beryl actually looked more organized late this afternoon than it did this morning, which is definitely unexpected. 

Beryl has consistently kept meteorologists surprised, mostly because of its early season intensity, its development in an area of the Atlantic where hurricanes aren't "supposed" to develop until August, and now Beryl's reluctance to weaken in an atmosphere where it should be having some trouble. 

That slow pace of diminishing is why Jamaica is taking such a hit. The hurricane hadn't made its closest approach to Jamaica this afternoon and Kingston has already reported sustained winds of 48 mph with gusts to 81 mph, says the National Hurricane Center. 

Ferocious  winds will destroy tons of buildings in Jamaica, especially near the south coast. Torrential rains in Jamaica's steep mountains will cause violent flash floods and mudslides - they've probably started already as I write this at midafternoon eastern time. 

The destruction left behind is still being assessed in places like Grenada, where Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said destruction on the nation's island of Carriacou is "almost Armageddon-like.

Drone video taken over Carriacou makes the entire island look like it was put into a giant blender. Pulverized pieces of houses were everywhere. Most buildings lost parts or all of their roofs. 

Per CBS News: 

"'Almost total damage or destruction of all buildings, whether they be public buildings, homes or other private facilities,' Mitchell said. 'Complete devastation and destruction of agriculture. Complete and total destruction of the natural environment. There is literally no vegetation left anywhere on the island of Carriacou.

Carriacou, which means 'Isle of Reefs' is just 13 square miles, but is is the second-largest island within Grenada. Beryl's size and strength completely overpowered the island, as well as its neighbor, St. Vincent and the Grenadines' Union Island, which saw 90 percent of its homes severely damaged or destroyed.

Clare Nullis, a spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organization, said earlier this week that 'it takes only one landfalling hurricane to set back decades of development.'"

With climate change increasing the risks of super hurricanes like Beryl, that of course is bad news. Island nations are a dime a dozen in and near the Caribbean. 

There's been a slew of big hurricanes in recent years, and there's no reason to think it will stop this year. Most experts say the rest of this hurricane season will be extraordinarily busy. Hurricane Beryl suggests these forecasts might end up being right. 

After today, Beryl will continue its weakening trend, but will probably still be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico by Friday morning. 

Time spent over land in Mexico will ensure Beryl weakens to a tropical storm. But meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center worry Beryl will get a new lease on life when it emerges over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

It could strengthen into a hurricane again before hitting northeast Mexico or southern Texas by around Sunday or Monday.  Forecasts trends have been shifting the expected path of Beryl northward.  Earlier forecasts indicated it will make landfall again well south of Texas

Now, forecasts vary, but it could come ashore somewhere within spitting distance either side of the Mexico/Texas border.

 

Category 5 Hurricane Beryl Continues To Amaze Amid Windward Island Destruction

Formidable Category 5 Hurricane Beryl late
Tuesday morning over the Caribbean. 

 Despite the idea this was impossible at the very start of July, Hurricane Beryl last night grew to a Category 5 storm - the most intense possible - with top sustained winds of an incredible 165 mph. 

This, after trashing some of the Windward Islands as a high end Category 4 yesterday with sustained winds of 150 mph. 

Category 5 hurricanes are relatively rare in the Atlantic Ocean, but have been becoming a little more common in recent years. 

However, such powerhouses were considered virtually impossible until August and September, when oceans reach their peak temperatures and atmospheric conditions are most primed to pump a hurricane to its maximum potential.

With ocean temperatures in and near the Caribbean Sea at record highs and at readings more typical for around Labor Day, Beryl was able to become the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record for so early in the season.

This, after setting records for the earliest major hurricane known to have formed east of the Windward Islands. When it was just getting its act together last week, it was also the furthest east in the Atlantic a tropical storm is known to have popped up in June.  

All this is a combination of a perfect set of conditions to make Beryl a monster, and probably climate change, which is serving to warm oceans more and more. This creates better and better incubators for hurricanes. 

DAMAGE AND FUTURE

As you might expect, Beryl devastated the islands it hit on Monday.

Says the Washington Post:

"Grenada and the nation of St. Vincent and the Grenadines were reeling from a storm that probably will be the region's most intense hurricane on record.

'In half an hour, Carriacou was flattened,' Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said Monday. 

At least one person died on St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the prime minister said Monday evening. 'There may well be more fatalities,' Ralph Gonsalves said in an address to the nation, adding that hundreds of houses had been severely damaged or destroyed in the country, including on the main island of St. Vincent."

Latest reports as of early this afternoon suggest seven deaths have already been reported in association with the storm.

Beryl has finally reached peak strength. I can't image it possibly getting any stronger anyway. But stronger upper level winds will steadily weaken Beryl as it moves west to northwest across the Caribbean Sea toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.  

The weakening trend will start this afternoon, but Beryl will still be a pretty intense hurricane as it passes over or  close by Jamaica tomorrow. By then, it will be a little less powerful than it was this morning, but still an intense, destructive hurricane. 

Beryl will eventually probably pass over the Yucatan Peninsula and menace northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. But by then it might be reduced to a tropical storm or a much less formidable hurricane than it is now. 

 

 

Hurricane Elsa Update: Hispaniola, Cuba, Florida Still Targets

Satellite view of Hurricane Elsa Friday after in trashed
Barbabos. Image from NOAA.

Early Season Hurricane Elsa was continuing its march through the Caribbean Sea this morning, having trashed Barbados and setting its sights on Hispaniola, Cuba and Florida. 

Surprising to me, anyway, given its location, this was the first hurricane in more than 60 years to strike Barbados. Numerous homes there collapsed or lost their roofs, and there was widespread additional damage there and on nearby St. Lucia. So far, no deaths have been reported. 

Elsa's forward motion is around 30 mph, which is awfully fast for a hurricane. Top winds with the storm were 75 mph, making it barely a hurricane. It's a little less powerful than yesterday, when top winds were 85 mph.

Elsa's forward speed is forecast to slow down somewhat today and tomorrow. Elsa should be near the southern coast of Hispaniola tonight, and be affecting Jamaica and Cuba tomorrow. By Monday and Tuesday, South Florida should be feeling the effects of Elsa. 

There's still a lot of questions as to how strong Elsa will be in the coming days. If it interacts a lot with the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba, it could weak a lot.  If it stays in the open water south of those islands for awhile, it could maintain most of its strength.

It'll weaken heading north over Cuba, but how much is the question. And will Elsa be able to restrengthen a bit once it emerges into the water south of the Florida Keys?

And what about Florida?  We don't know if Elsa will target the area around Miami, or head west up toward Tampa, or plow right into central Florida.  In any event, Floridians ought to be preparing for some coastal storm surges and especially inland flooding.

It's been wet in much of Florida lately and the ground in many spots is pretty saturated. If Elsa dumps some heavy rain around there, we could be looking at plenty of floods. We'll see.

Beyond Florida, Elsa will move toward the northeast, but it's still way too soon to have a good handle on whether it will affect New England, and if so, how.