Hurricane Beryl Not Going Down Without A Fight

Satellite view of Hurricane Beryl shows it looking
much less organized and symmetrical than 
yesterday as strong upper level winds 
disrupt it, but it's still managing to hold on
as a powerful, dangerous storm. 

 As of this afternoon, Jamaica is the latest island to be trashed by extreme, intense oddball Hurricane Beryl as the storm gets ready to hit, or at least make a close pass at that nation.  

Despite more than 24 hours of a hostile upper atmosphere, Hurricane Beryl still had maximum sustained winds of 140  mph as of late this afternoon.

 The storm still has the Cayman Islands, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and possibly southern Texas in its sights. 

Hurricanes don't like strong upper level winds. Those winds disrupt the nice round circulation of tall powerful thunderstorms that make up the ring of scary weather around the storm's eye.

When those upper level winds - known as shear - hit a hurricane they almost always weaken. 

Such is the case with Beryl, but the process has been stubbornly slow.  It's amazing that after 24 hours of westerly upper level winds, the central winds were still that 140 mph late this afternoon, down from its peak of 165 mph yesterday.  

If anything, Beryl actually looked more organized late this afternoon than it did this morning, which is definitely unexpected. 

Beryl has consistently kept meteorologists surprised, mostly because of its early season intensity, its development in an area of the Atlantic where hurricanes aren't "supposed" to develop until August, and now Beryl's reluctance to weaken in an atmosphere where it should be having some trouble. 

That slow pace of diminishing is why Jamaica is taking such a hit. The hurricane hadn't made its closest approach to Jamaica this afternoon and Kingston has already reported sustained winds of 48 mph with gusts to 81 mph, says the National Hurricane Center. 

Ferocious  winds will destroy tons of buildings in Jamaica, especially near the south coast. Torrential rains in Jamaica's steep mountains will cause violent flash floods and mudslides - they've probably started already as I write this at midafternoon eastern time. 

The destruction left behind is still being assessed in places like Grenada, where Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said destruction on the nation's island of Carriacou is "almost Armageddon-like.

Drone video taken over Carriacou makes the entire island look like it was put into a giant blender. Pulverized pieces of houses were everywhere. Most buildings lost parts or all of their roofs. 

Per CBS News: 

"'Almost total damage or destruction of all buildings, whether they be public buildings, homes or other private facilities,' Mitchell said. 'Complete devastation and destruction of agriculture. Complete and total destruction of the natural environment. There is literally no vegetation left anywhere on the island of Carriacou.

Carriacou, which means 'Isle of Reefs' is just 13 square miles, but is is the second-largest island within Grenada. Beryl's size and strength completely overpowered the island, as well as its neighbor, St. Vincent and the Grenadines' Union Island, which saw 90 percent of its homes severely damaged or destroyed.

Clare Nullis, a spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organization, said earlier this week that 'it takes only one landfalling hurricane to set back decades of development.'"

With climate change increasing the risks of super hurricanes like Beryl, that of course is bad news. Island nations are a dime a dozen in and near the Caribbean. 

There's been a slew of big hurricanes in recent years, and there's no reason to think it will stop this year. Most experts say the rest of this hurricane season will be extraordinarily busy. Hurricane Beryl suggests these forecasts might end up being right. 

After today, Beryl will continue its weakening trend, but will probably still be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico by Friday morning. 

Time spent over land in Mexico will ensure Beryl weakens to a tropical storm. But meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center worry Beryl will get a new lease on life when it emerges over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

It could strengthen into a hurricane again before hitting northeast Mexico or southern Texas by around Sunday or Monday.  Forecasts trends have been shifting the expected path of Beryl northward.  Earlier forecasts indicated it will make landfall again well south of Texas

Now, forecasts vary, but it could come ashore somewhere within spitting distance either side of the Mexico/Texas border.

 

Extreme Rains In Italy, Oman Break Records, Again In Climate Change World

Destruction in Italy after extreme rains fell in Quillano, Italy.
Photo by Taro Pecorano/LaPress/AP

 The weather remains very quiet here in Vermont and will stay that way for probably a week. No news to report here, which is a nice break from any risk of extremes.  

The only thing we need to confront is above normal temperatures through probably at least the third week of October.

This year of weather extremes rolls on elsewhere in the world, of course. As CNN and the Washington Post highlight,  the latest victims were northwestern Italy and Oman. 

The Italian rainfall is almost too wild to believe.

The town of Rossiglione, in Italy's Genoa province, had 29.2 inches of rain in just 12 hours, the most ever recorded in Europe.  For comparison's sake, Rossiglione usually gets about 50 inches of rain per year, so they got more than half that in 12 hours.

For those of us in Vermont who want to compare, it normally takes about 10 months for 29 inches of rain to fall on the Green Mountain State.

There are more impressive rain totals from this Italian storm. In just six hours, 19.5 inches of rain fell on Cairo Monenotte in Genoa Province. And 7.1 inches fell in one hour at  Vicomorasso, about 16 miles east of Rossiglione.

Not surprisingly, the extreme downpours created a massive flood with serious damage. Remarkably and thankfully,  there have so far no reports of casualties from this terrible storm. 

In Oman, a rare cyclone-- we call them hurricanes here in the U.S., hit the nation's northern coast. This area is normally a desert with almost no rain ever. 

In Al Khaburah, Oman, 14 inches of rain fell in six hours.  It normally takes three years for that much rain to fall in that part of Oman.  Huge flooding naturally resulted from this mess. At least 14 people died in the storm. .

The Italian and Oman extreme rains follow other unprecedented floods this year in China, central Europe and New York and New Jersey from former Hurricane Ida. 

Extreme flooding in Oman. Via CNN

A warmer climate means more extreme rain events, so the kind of post you're reading now is going to seem a bit like a broken record.   There will be more and more of these kinds of floods.

It does make me paranoid about us here in Vermont. As we well know, the hilly and steep landscape and all those small brooks and streams easily go wild in heavy rains.  We still shudder when we remember the Tropical Storm Irene floods in 2011.

I don't know if we're primed to get eventually get something worse than Irene in an atmosphere now stoked by climate change.  It might happen next month, ten years from now or never. 

Italy and Oman are far, far away from Vermont. But the recent extreme rains in those two nations still feel too close to home.