Hurricane Beryl Not Going Down Without A Fight

Satellite view of Hurricane Beryl shows it looking
much less organized and symmetrical than 
yesterday as strong upper level winds 
disrupt it, but it's still managing to hold on
as a powerful, dangerous storm. 

 As of this afternoon, Jamaica is the latest island to be trashed by extreme, intense oddball Hurricane Beryl as the storm gets ready to hit, or at least make a close pass at that nation.  

Despite more than 24 hours of a hostile upper atmosphere, Hurricane Beryl still had maximum sustained winds of 140  mph as of late this afternoon.

 The storm still has the Cayman Islands, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and possibly southern Texas in its sights. 

Hurricanes don't like strong upper level winds. Those winds disrupt the nice round circulation of tall powerful thunderstorms that make up the ring of scary weather around the storm's eye.

When those upper level winds - known as shear - hit a hurricane they almost always weaken. 

Such is the case with Beryl, but the process has been stubbornly slow.  It's amazing that after 24 hours of westerly upper level winds, the central winds were still that 140 mph late this afternoon, down from its peak of 165 mph yesterday.  

If anything, Beryl actually looked more organized late this afternoon than it did this morning, which is definitely unexpected. 

Beryl has consistently kept meteorologists surprised, mostly because of its early season intensity, its development in an area of the Atlantic where hurricanes aren't "supposed" to develop until August, and now Beryl's reluctance to weaken in an atmosphere where it should be having some trouble. 

That slow pace of diminishing is why Jamaica is taking such a hit. The hurricane hadn't made its closest approach to Jamaica this afternoon and Kingston has already reported sustained winds of 48 mph with gusts to 81 mph, says the National Hurricane Center. 

Ferocious  winds will destroy tons of buildings in Jamaica, especially near the south coast. Torrential rains in Jamaica's steep mountains will cause violent flash floods and mudslides - they've probably started already as I write this at midafternoon eastern time. 

The destruction left behind is still being assessed in places like Grenada, where Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said destruction on the nation's island of Carriacou is "almost Armageddon-like.

Drone video taken over Carriacou makes the entire island look like it was put into a giant blender. Pulverized pieces of houses were everywhere. Most buildings lost parts or all of their roofs. 

Per CBS News: 

"'Almost total damage or destruction of all buildings, whether they be public buildings, homes or other private facilities,' Mitchell said. 'Complete devastation and destruction of agriculture. Complete and total destruction of the natural environment. There is literally no vegetation left anywhere on the island of Carriacou.

Carriacou, which means 'Isle of Reefs' is just 13 square miles, but is is the second-largest island within Grenada. Beryl's size and strength completely overpowered the island, as well as its neighbor, St. Vincent and the Grenadines' Union Island, which saw 90 percent of its homes severely damaged or destroyed.

Clare Nullis, a spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organization, said earlier this week that 'it takes only one landfalling hurricane to set back decades of development.'"

With climate change increasing the risks of super hurricanes like Beryl, that of course is bad news. Island nations are a dime a dozen in and near the Caribbean. 

There's been a slew of big hurricanes in recent years, and there's no reason to think it will stop this year. Most experts say the rest of this hurricane season will be extraordinarily busy. Hurricane Beryl suggests these forecasts might end up being right. 

After today, Beryl will continue its weakening trend, but will probably still be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico by Friday morning. 

Time spent over land in Mexico will ensure Beryl weakens to a tropical storm. But meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center worry Beryl will get a new lease on life when it emerges over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

It could strengthen into a hurricane again before hitting northeast Mexico or southern Texas by around Sunday or Monday.  Forecasts trends have been shifting the expected path of Beryl northward.  Earlier forecasts indicated it will make landfall again well south of Texas

Now, forecasts vary, but it could come ashore somewhere within spitting distance either side of the Mexico/Texas border.

 

Hurricane Beryl Stuns With Early Season Power

Satellite view of impressive Hurricane Beryl on
Sunday, the first Category 4 storm on record
to form in the Atlantic. 

 Hurricane Beryl, which I reported yesterday would get a lot stronger, really over-performed even those expectations. 

As of noon today, Beryl was a Category 4 powerhouse, with top sustained winds of 135 mph. Meteorologists and climatologists are stunned that a hurricane this early in the season would get so strong. 

It's easily the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean. The previous record hold was Hurricane Dennis in the very busy year of 2005.

Hurricane Beryl does seem to be a harbinger of a very busy hurricane season. As I mentioned yesterday, Atlantic waters in many areas are at or near record warmth. Weather patterns are also expected to favor hurricanes this year. 

Although it's hard to tie specific weather events to climate change, Hurricane Beryl is definitely consistent with what to expect as the world warms. The oceans are getting warmer, making it easier for hurricanes to form and become stronger than they otherwise would be. 

Category 4's are almost always limited to the August into the first part of October. Category 4 hurricanes have winds of between 130 and 156 mph.

Even slightly weaker Category 3 storms, still regarded as major hurricanes are exceedingly rare in June. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"Before now, the Atlantic has only ever seen two major hurricanes during June - Audrey in 1957 and Alma in 1966. 'Major' hurricanes are this rated as Category 3 or higher. Both Audrey and Alma occurred in the Gulf of Mexico as early-season 'homegrown' storms. The Atlantic's Main Development Region, located between northern South America and Africa, was always believed to be inhospitable to major hurricanes during the month of June - until now."

Hurricane warnings are now up for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine islands, Grenada and Tobago.

Beryl will probably slam those islands Monday, then head into the central Caribbean Sea.  Once it gets there, stronger upper level winds will start disrupting the hurricane's tall thunderstorms, making the overall hurricane slowly weaken.

It is still forecast to be a hurricane, though, by the time it approaches Mexico by the end of the week. Though Mexico is the most likely target, Beryl could veer north toward the Gulf of Mexico, or divert toward central America. 

Another disturbance Sunday along the coast of Mexico in the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico could turn into a tropical depression or storm later today before it moves ashore by tomorrow morning. Another disturbance way out in the central Atlantic that's roughly following the path of Beryl could become a tropical storm within a few days.