Trump Administration's Obnoxiousness With Greenland Is Tacit Acknowledgment Of Climate Change

The United States is again making dumb noises about
annexing Greenland, diplomacy and legality be
damned. While the Trump administration denies
climate change exists, this whole mess
is largely about climate change. 

Greenland is back in the news again, as the Trump Administration is ramping up its efforts to take control of the big Arctic ice heap.  It's a move that practically nobody else wants other that Donald Trump and his not-so-merry band of MAGA cultists. 

One irony is that Donald Trump denies the existence of climate change, yet that very real warming of the planet is a big part of what's behind all this. 

To back up here, Trump last week appointed Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry as his envoy to Greenland. Landry said he would travel to Greenland to convince people living there to become part of the United States. 

Good luck with that. 

Greenland is a self-governing Danish territory. Officials in Greenland, Denmark and the European Union unanimously condemned Trump effort to annex Greenland.  A big majority of Greenlanders want increased independence from Denmark, but they really, really don't want to become part of the U.S.

Somebody from MAGA always says the quiet part out loud, and the ever-reliable Fox host Brian Kilmeade gave us this:

"Greenland has been ignored by Denmark for decades. Now they're not, because we have shown interest. They have about 60,000 people there and we have a huge military base. Look, we are going to need their natural resources to mine them - you'll (Denmark) be able to get some of that. But in the meantime, we have to expand our base there and access to the waterways, because the Arctic is melting and we need access there. 

Russia and China is (sic) trying to dominate. Plus, what are we in, the era of the Viking? What is Denmark doing in our backyard?"

Phew! There's a lot to unpack there. Our "need" for natural resources, as if we could just go in and take them.  Sure, Donald Trump said we need Greenland for security, not minerals. But it's about the minerals as much as it is about security. Especially in the sense of  how much money the grifters associated with Trump can make from exploiting Greenland.  

Kilmeade seems to think it's horrible that puny little Greenland wants to control its own future and puny little Denmark should have the gaul to be in control of Denmark.

Greenland is in our backyard, since it's hooked on to North America. Trump is like the homeowner who sees a ball accidentally thrown into his yard by neighborhood kids. He's the type that would keep the ball instead of throwing it back over to the kids. 

CLIMATE CONNECTION

But since this is a climate and weather blog, there's one piece in Kilmeade's screed that I want to focus on. It's where he said "the Arctic is melting."

I thought all the MAGA types deny human-caused climate change. They say it's a hoax. So why is the Arctic melting? It's true that Greenland is pretty steadily losing some of its massive ice cap to a warming world. 

Maybe Kilmeade will sputter that the climate changes "naturally," but how do you explain such a massive melt that developed over decades, not centuries like most of Earth's past episodes of natural warming and cooling?

Ultimately Trump's one-sided crush on Greenland is about the climate change that he publicly denies exists. 

As Al Jazeera tells us:

"Climate change and a rapidly melting ice sheet are the main reasons the Arctic has become a geopolitical hotspot

The Arctic is heating at a rate four times faster than the global average, increasing its accessibility for maritime trade routes and resource exploration - including by non-arctic countries as well as those with an Arctic presence. 

China has deployed vessels capable of serving both military surveillance and research functions in the region. The purposes are to collect data and secure access to resources and shipping lanes, which are emerging as a result of melting ice."

In addition, Russia is deploying missile systems and weapons testing in the Arctic, and has grown its naval presence near the top of the world. Canada is planning to shore up its military and diplomatic presence in the Arctic because of those Chinese and Russian moves in and near Greenland. 

So the security risk is real, but as usual, Trump's bluster, lies and utter untrustworthiness is botching it. 

Russia and Chinese military and espionage geeks are undoubtedly loving all of this.

What probably would have made a lot more sense was to light a fire under the European Union over the Arctic security threats, then negotiate some sort of alliance involving Denmark, the U.S. and other European nations as a counterweight to Russian and Chinese threats in Greenland and elsewhere in the Arctic.  

But nope! Trump just has to be a clownish bully to appease his own fragile ego and the expense of the rest of the world. 

For years we've been told that a warming planet would make political, social and military conflicts more likely. It's too bad Trump is working os hard in aiding and abetting the "hoax' climate change to make all that happen sooner and more dangerously than most of us thought.   

Just Calm Down Already About Those Wild Hurricane Forecasts

Despite the hype, we'll go to the National Hurricane 
Center. There's a low chance (in yellow) a tropical
storm might form in the central Atlantic, and a
medium chance (orange) that a storm or huricane
will form further south 

 It's that hazy, crazy time of year when you see those wild hurricane forecasts for a week or two in the future. 

A powerful hurricane will hit Florida! Wait, there will be two giant hurricanes attacking Florida from either side!  Whoops! New England is about to get blasted by the worst hurricane since 1938!  Oh, we lose New Orleans and Houston again!

Of course, it's almost guaranteed we will not see any of the scenarios later this month.  But these forecasts are all over social media, even if they're accompanying by a disclaimer that they're not an actually forecast. (Duh!). 

It's all about clicks and revenue for whoever is posting, you see. 

The forecasts are grounded in just the faintest glimmer of reality. The computer models that meteorologists rely on spit out new scenarios every six hours or so. (Some more frequently).  I've seen all the above scenarios in recent model runs, all happening around August 20 or 21, give or take.

I've written before about these "phantom hurricanes" in computer models. Now that we're getting into peak hurricane season, we've also entered into peak phantom hurricane season.

Despite the fact that the hurricanes depicted a couple weeks down the road won't play out like that in reality, these model runs are still useful.

They're all consistently telling us that the Atlantic Ocean is about to get pretty active with tropical storms and possible hurricane activity.  The model runs are a shot across the bow, warning us to pay attention starting now. 

Nobody can tell you for sure if a hurricane will form, and if it does, where it will go, but something will probably form. If you live in a hurricane prone area, you should finish stocking up the supplied you'll need if you ever receive a hurricane warning 

The fact that we're suddenly seeing hurricanes in the long range forecast is right on schedule. Disturbances  start coming off of the west coast of Africa in the July or the first half of August. Some of those disturbances turn into hurricanes. 

One of them is now in the central Atlantic and has a low chance of turning into a tropical storm or hurricane. If it does, the National Hurricane Center broadly thinks it will head north and not hit land, but again, no promises.

Another disturbance just came off the African Coast and is in the eastern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is a little more bullish on this one, so far giving it a medium chance of developing into something. 

This is the one those computer models are depicting, the one that would destroy, Florida, New England, or hell, North Dakota for all I know. 

Again, nobody knows whether this thing will come anywhere near the United States, and if so where and at what strength. As you can see in the map of this post, the National Hurricane Center brings it west to northwestward, ending up somewhere in the tropical Atlantic in several days. The general area they think it might end up is the orange shaded area. 

From there, who knows?  Stay tuned

OVERALL SEASON

The National Hurricane Center this past week updated its forecast for the rest of the season. They're predicting 13 to 18 named storms, including the four tropical storms we've already had. An average season has 14 named storms, meaning tropical storms or hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. 

The NHC expects five to nine hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph) and two to five major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or greater. 

Those figures are slightly busier than an average season.

What matters most is where those storms go.  There's some indication the United States East Coast might be a little more vulnerable to hurricanes than usual this year. 

As the Washington Post explained on Thursday, a marine heat wave has developed in the western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. A marine heat wave is when an area of the ocean warms up dramatically to or near record levels. 

If a hurricane encounters those warm waters on the way to the United States, chances are they'll grow to be much stronger than a similar storm that encounters somewhat cooler water. In general, the hotter the water, the greater they chance a hurricane will grow stronger. 

Marine heat waves were a major reason why Hurricanes Helene and Milton proved so destructive when they hit the United States last year. 

Certain weather patterns steer hurricanes toward the East Coast and we seem to be trending toward ingredients that would do that. These include a strong Bermuda High with a westward extension toward the United States that would prevent a westward moving hurricane from the tropics from turning northward, out to sea.

Another ingredient is a strong blocking high pressure system over eastern Canada, which again would steer a hurricane up the coast rather than letting it curve eastward, out to sea

The third ingredient is a dip in the jet stream over the Appalachians. That dip might or might not develop in the coming weeks. But such a jet stream arrangement becomes a little more likely in September, which coincides with what is usually the worst of hurricane season. 

So, when you see those maps into the future on social media, the ones that tell you that your city will be wiped out by a major hurricane within two weeks, honestly just relax.

But don't ignore it. 

Storm That Gave Us Ice In Vermont Is Even More Dangerous And Weird Elsewhere And There's Going To Be A Second Big Storm

That huge orange and yellow area in the middle of the 
nation represents a vast area subject to severe 
thunderstorms and tornadoes today. 

 Sure, it's been miserable in Vermont with this weekend's storm with snow, damaging ice, cold rain and yuck.  

This storm is also causing other problems far and wide.  The worst part of this storm is the severe storm and tornado outbreak that's about to unfold

SEVERE WEATHER

A remarkably huge area of the nation is under threat from damaging thunderstorm winds, huge hail and tornadoes today.  And some of the tornadoes could end up being strong. 

The risk zone today goes from western New York and extreme southern Ontario all the way to the Gulf Coast It also extends from Missouri and Illinois all the way to the western Appalachians. 

This whole area is under the gun from later this morning through tonight for those lines of severe storms and tornadoes.  The highest risk zone for those tornados is in the mid-Mississippi valley, including western Kentucky and Tennessee, eastern Missouri and Arkansas and the northern half of Alabama.

MORE STORMS MONDAY

The severe weather and tornadoes continue tomorrow. This time it will be up and down the East Coast from the eastern Gulf Coast all the way up to New York. 

The greatest risk of tornados runs from Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida and Virginia. A marginal risk of storms with gusty winds extends as far north as southwestern Vermont. 

The severe threat will not be over once the storm departs later Monday, the threat of tornadoes doesn't end. 

ICE STORM

Damage from last night's ice storm in Ontario

It wasn't just us in Vermont that suffered damage from the weight of ice on trees and power lines. 

This storm spread freezing rain far and wide in a band from Wisconsin and northern Michigan, through southern Ontario, across northern New York and into northern New England. 

Residents of northern Michigan were told to shelter in place inside their homes due to the danger of falling and collapsing trees outdoors. 

About 225,000 thousand Ontario residents were without power because of the storm. 

In Michigan, 150,000 people were without power because of the ice this morning. Another 62,000 or so had no electricity in Wisconsin. 

WEIRD TEMPERATURES

The storm set up an extreme and weird temperature contrast in the Northeast on Saturday. 

 At 4 p.m. Saturday, it was 35 degrees in Boston with a little light snow. In New York City's Central Park, it was partly sunny and 80 degrees. 

The weather front dividing the two extremes moved southwestward into the New York City and New Jersey areas yesterday evening.  At 5 p.m. the front had passed through LaGuardia airport east of Manhattan and the temperature there was 51 degrees Also at 5 p.m. the front hadn't reached Central Park in Manhattan yet, so it was still 79 degrees there. 

However, an hour later, at 6 p.m. it was down to 53 in Central Park. 

NEW STORM 

A big new storm is forecast to develop in Colorado Tuesday and move northeastward toward the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. 

A widespread severe storm and tornado outbreak is forecast to hit the same areas being hit today.  No rest of the weary!

More Trump Moves On Top Of NOAA Firings Will Threaten Forecasting And Peoples' Lives Even More

Now, the Trump team might shut down leases on
critical NOAA/National Weather Service 
forecasting buildings, further degrading 
the quality of U.S. weather forecasting on top
of the harm the administration's firing of hundreds
of NOAA workers did last week. 

 The Trump administration looks like it wants to end the leases on two buildings that house critical NOAA and National Weather Service nerve centers. 

First reported in The Verge, it appears the NOAA Center for Weather And Climate Prediction is on the list for a lease cancelation. 

Reports Axios: 

"The building houses the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, or NCEP, which includes the Environmental Modeling Center. It opened in 2012 and has about 268,000 square feet of space. 

The modeling center runs the computer models used in day-to-day weather forecasting and ensures the weather data correctly goes into these models and that they are operating correctly."

This center provides information to the National Weather Service, Air Force, Navy and Federal Aviation Administration, as The Verge reports. 

So it''s not just a matter of you ending up with a little rain on a day that forecasters said was going to be partly sunny. These operations are crucial for public safety in severe weather, national defense, and airline safety. 

Additionally NOAA has canceled a lead for a radar development lab in Oklahoma. 

So far, luckily, the lease cancelations are not a done deal, if you can believe Trump administration officials. 

Per Axios:

"A senior White House officials told Axios on Tuesday that for NOAA, the administration is "simply re-evaluating the lease terms, not closing any building, which any good steward of money would do.  The official stressed that no formal lease-cancellation letter has been sent to NOAA. The official acknowledged that DOGE is canceling leases at other government agencies, but said NOAA is an exception."

Predictably, and accurately. many experienced meteorologists decried the idea of ending the building leases - and likely the operations they run - as a dangerous move that will cost American lives. 

"This is horrible news for numerical weather prediction in this country. The data that comes from these key parts of our weather enterprise saves lives," Jim Cantore the famed meteorologist on The Weather Channel posted on X.

Meteorologist Brad Panovich, Chief Meteorologist at WCNC in Charlotte, North Carolina raised this excellent point on X:

"This will literally bankrupt the U.S. If you ever wondered why NOAA/NWS is in the department of commerce, I have some news for you. Every single $ of our economy is impacted by the weather. Agriculture, Energy, Travel, Logistics, Defense, logistics of every major company etc. I could go on but you get the idea."

Panovich said he thinks, or at least hopes, the lease cancelation idea will be reversed.  

Meanwhile, the Washington Post recently dove a little deeper into how all those firings at NOAA would affect weather forecasting. 

Here's only a few examples. 

For one thing, around the clock weather monitoring could suffer. After all, dangerous storms can happen anytime of day or night. What if radar went down in the wee hours of the morning just as a swarm of tornado-producing thunderstorms approached a particular region?

After tornadoes, the National Weather Service sends meteorologists out to survey damage. That's not just to be looky loos.  The damage assessments help them determine how strong the tornado was. Then they can analyze radar and other data from during the storm to help them better forecast the path and strength of future tornadoes that might form. 

As much as 25 percent of the staff at NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center was cut.  This is the office that builds, maintains and improves the computer models widely used in weather forecasting. 

If these models are not maintained and built, the data gets worse, and so does the forecast accuracy. That's important when a large storm like a hurricane or intense nor'easter seems likely to form.  Emergency managers want the best model so they can accurately pre-position resources to quickly step in to help.

By the way, cuts to NOAA and the National Weather Service will not only cost lives, but also likely cost money, not save it.

The average United States taxpayer spends $3 for all the services and products the National Weather Service provides.   A 2019 study indicated that every $1 invested in the National Weather Service produces $73 in value for Americans. 

Today, an exceptionally large and powerful storm is sweeping the middle of the nation. It's spinning off tornadoes, blizzards, wildfires, floods, snowstorms and an incredible huge area of dangerous high winds stretching from New Mexico to New York. 

I hope that's investigated. 

This storm would have been incredibly challenging for National Weather Service meteorologists before the job cuts and the uncertainty and the morale issues this whole mess has brought on. 

Some tornadoes touched down in Texas.  A few of them had no warnings from the National Weather Service. It's still unclear if that was because the weather system was so complicated it was hard to tease out the developing tornadoes (possible), or whether this was related to last week's NOAA job cuts. 

As the spring severe storm season comes into focus, I fear we will have more "surprise" tornadoes because the Trump administration got rid of too many of the eyes that should be looking into these storms. 

 

Whack Job Conspiracy Theories Over Hurricanes Exhausting And Endangering Meteorologists

The nation's sizable tin foil hat brigade is torturing
meteorologists with whackadoodle conspiracy 
theories about hurricanes and government
weather control. People will believe anything, huh?

 The false information and conspiracy theories I wrote about the other day seemed to have spawned even more out-there wacky stories about weather control and more weird stuff.   

Social media has been rife with stories people make up out of thin air that the government, or meteorologist or somebody is creating huge hurricanes and steering them toward the United States for nefarious purposes.

Just in the past few months, it seems the madness got much worse. 

Instead of blaming meteorologists for inaccurate forecasts, it's now apparently their fault if a bad storm hits, because somehow, through dark magic or something, these meteorologists are steering hurricanes toward United States coastlines,. Or they're at least covering up for the government. 

The wackos think meteorologists are attacking us with bad weather, for gawd knows what reason. We've become a nation of idiots. 

Even a sitting U.S. House member, Marjorie Taylor Greene has joined the chorus. though I have to admit she's never been much of a reliable source. 

In any event, Greene, ever the scientist, posted the following gem on X:

"Yes they can control the weather, It's ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can't be done."

Apparently "they" - who ever "they" are - decided to unleash a flood of epic proportions on a section of the nation that is generally more likely to vote Republican than Democrat.  Apparently evil forces somehow steered two dangerous hurricane over the Southeast to suppress the vote in red counties to boost Kamala Harris. 

I wonder if the people supposedly steering hurricanes like this are the same people responsible for the Jewish Space Lasers?

The conspiracy theories would be hilarious, ore at least eye rolling if they weren't so dangerous.

As The Guardian reports:

"Katie Nickolaou a Michigan-based meteorologist, said she and her colleagues have borne the brunt of much of these conspiracies, having received messages claiming there are category 6 hurricanes (there aren't) and even that scientists should be killed and radar equipment be demolished.

'I've never seen a storm garner so much misinformation, and we have just been putting out fires of wrong information everywhere,' Nickolaou said. 

'I have had a bunch of people saying I created and steered the hurricane, there are people assuming we control the weather.  I have had to point out that a hurricane has the energy of 10,000 nuclear bombs and we can't hope to control that. But it's taken a turn to more violent rhetoric, especially with people saying those who created Milton should be killed."

Meteorologist Matthew Cappucci, quoted in Rolling Stone, said he noticed a huge change on social media over the past few months. 

"Seemingly overnight, ideas that once would have been ridiculed as very fringe, outlandish viewpoints are suddenly becoming mainstream, and it's making my job more difficult," he said.

Alabama meteorologist James Spann, with nearly five decades of weather forecasting under his belt, said he's never seen anything like the current climate. Spann told Rolling Stone he's "inundated" with misinformation and threatening messages like "Stop lying about the government controlling the weather or else."

To be Captain Obvious here, both hurricanes Helene and Milton formed the way they did due to atmospheric and ocean water conditions favorable for such storm development.  

Those favorable conditions were not created by humans, unless you quite fairly want to include the influence of human-caused climate change. 

That human induced climate change contributed to the unusually hot water in the Gulf of Mexico, which in turn helped give the twin hurricanes a boost . 

Steering winds in the upper atmosphere steered the hurricanes toward Florida. An unusual but NOT man-made weather pattern pulled Helene up  into North Carolina.  There was no secret cabal of meteorologists steering the storm.  Mostly because humans don't have any ability to steer a hurricane. At all. 

WHY THE CONSPIRACIES?

To go deeper into the rabbit hole, we should probably figure out what conspiracy theorists think is the reason meteorologists and the government are steering hurricanes. 

The leading theory, as mentioned, seems to be forces aligned against Donald Trump are pushing the storms into areas more likely to vote for him rather than Democrat Kamala Harris. 

It is true that Trump seems likely to do better at the ballot box in northwest Florida, and western North Carolina than Harris would. 

But if I go along with their tin foil hat arguments just for fun,  how would you explain why Hurricane Helene blasted through Atlanta, Georgia, a democratic stronghold?. Plus not everyone in Sarasota, Florida or Ashville, North Carolina favors Trump.

Probably most of the conspiracy theories are from people who've gone under the thrall of Trump and QAnon and other dicey sources of so-called information.  These groups instill distrust in all institutions, including science, leading to the rampant conspiracy theories and threats.

Most of the people who originate and spread these kooky ideas probably don't actually believe them.  But misinformation and conspiracies and threats have long been in the authoritarians' playbook. Distract a gullible population with nonsense so they can so their real dirty work.

It's really a divide and conquer strategy, as the Associated Press explains:

"...even when they fail to convince people, the conspiracy theories embraced by these groups contribute to mounting distrust of authorities and democratic institutions, causing people to reject reliable sources of information while encouraging division and suspicion."

Once they do that, the authoritarian types can step in and take power, and by the time we realize we're screwed, it's too late.

The purveyors of the conspiracy theories have already gained more strength in part because of the existence of AI, which can quickly and easily produce convincing content that looks "real" and convincing.

It doesn't help that players like Russia and China and Iran have bot farms that flood social media with conspiracies and lies that a malleable public that lacks critical thinking would readily absorb. Then you have people like Elon Musk, who doesn't seem to give a crap about the stuff that goes on  his platform X, formerly Twitter, as long as it boosts his buddy Donald Trump. 

Birds of a feather flock together, ya know. 

So the meteorologist being tortured by conspiracy whack jobs is just a small part of the big, big problem.

For all of you who live in the real world and not the crazy town of the conspiracy nut jobs, one word of advice: Vote wisely this year.  

Sure Enough, Lies About Federal Disaster Response Prompts Violence Threat, Interferes With Recovery

William Jacob Parsons, 44, was arrested for makimg
threats to FEMA workers trying to help
flood victims in North Carolina. 

 Sure enough, the toxic lies and conspiracy theories regarding the federal response to Hurricane Helene in North Carolina has interfered with those recovery efforts.  

Those relief efforts had to be temporarily shut down last weekend because of threats based on those lies, many of which were spread by our highly irresponsible (to put it mildly) Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Makes you wonder if he really cares about the people he's selling his schtick to, huh?  By the way, read on as the story takes on a small twist. 

I did a deep dive into the falsehoods in an October 13 post and mentioned that the horrible people spreading them would interfere with relief efforts. 

As the Associated Press reported on Tuesday: 

"Over the weekend, reports emerged that workers with the Federal Emergency Management Agency could be targeted by militia as the government responds to Hurricane Helene. A sheriff's office said Monday that one man was arrested during the investigation, but that the suspect acted alone."

Earlier reports that a band of militia members were roving around and planning an attack, but that thankfully proved false. Still, that just added to the climate of fear federal worker and flood victims are dealing with on top of all the other chaos in the flood zone. 

As the Associated Press reports, an exasperated North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said he's sure some people eligible for federal help are not applying due to lies spread by people who have an agenda other than helping flood victims.  

"'There's still a persistent and dangerous flow of misinformation about recovery efforts in western North Carolina that can lead to threats and intimidation, breeds confusion and demoralizes storm survivors and response workers alike,' Cooper said in a briefing. 'If you're participating in spreading this stuff, stop it. Whatever your aim is, the people you are hurting are those in western North Carolina who need help.'

'This is happening in the middle of an election where candidates are using people's misery to sow chaos for their own poltical objectives - and it's wrong,' he said."

Unfortunately, I'm sure the governor's words will fall on deaf ears as the gullible, angry believe anything you hear crowd is going to continue making everything worse for themselves and their neighbors. 

 The man who was arrested, William Jacob Parsons, 44, who was found armed with a handgun and a rifle. He was charged with something called going armed to the terror of the public. He was later released on $10,000 bond. 

 He actually agreed to talk with local television staton Fox 8 WGHP.

Apparently, Parsons bought the misinformation hook, line and sinker and spread it on Facebook, where he wrote, "We the people are sick and tired of the BS. We the people are seeking volunteers to join us and overtake the FEMA site in Lake Lure and send the products up the mountains this Saturday. We the people are done playing games. It's time to show who we are and what we believe. They want to screw our citizens. Now we return the favor."

Parsons told the television station he believed FEMA was failing people in need. "'I viewed it as if our people are sitting on American soil, and they're refusing to aid our people,' he said. 'So we were going to go up there and forcefully remove that fence.'"

Here's the small twist I referred to: Parsons said when he actually arrived, the reality was much different than advertised. He said he didn't really see anything untoward so he stayed and volunteered for the day.

If you take what Parsons said at face value, if he's telling the truth, it was another person who fell under the spell of Trump and figured out - too late - he's been lied to.

Because of his prior threats, law enforcement arrested Parsons at the scene. He insists he was only exercising his Second Amendment rights. He had one gun on him, and a rifle and a pistol in his vehicle. Parsons said they were all legally purchased.   

This will all get sorted out in court, I'm sure. 

Meanwhile, people are still making threats, thanks to the cynical actions of the liars out there lying. I'm guessing the goal is create conditions in which FEMA can't do their work, and then say, see, the current administration is a failure because FEMA is not doing their work.

In other words, some awful politicians are cruelly using flood victims in North Carolina as pawns.

You can't get any worse than that.  

 

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Stuns With Early Season Power

Satellite view of impressive Hurricane Beryl on
Sunday, the first Category 4 storm on record
to form in the Atlantic. 

 Hurricane Beryl, which I reported yesterday would get a lot stronger, really over-performed even those expectations. 

As of noon today, Beryl was a Category 4 powerhouse, with top sustained winds of 135 mph. Meteorologists and climatologists are stunned that a hurricane this early in the season would get so strong. 

It's easily the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean. The previous record hold was Hurricane Dennis in the very busy year of 2005.

Hurricane Beryl does seem to be a harbinger of a very busy hurricane season. As I mentioned yesterday, Atlantic waters in many areas are at or near record warmth. Weather patterns are also expected to favor hurricanes this year. 

Although it's hard to tie specific weather events to climate change, Hurricane Beryl is definitely consistent with what to expect as the world warms. The oceans are getting warmer, making it easier for hurricanes to form and become stronger than they otherwise would be. 

Category 4's are almost always limited to the August into the first part of October. Category 4 hurricanes have winds of between 130 and 156 mph.

Even slightly weaker Category 3 storms, still regarded as major hurricanes are exceedingly rare in June. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"Before now, the Atlantic has only ever seen two major hurricanes during June - Audrey in 1957 and Alma in 1966. 'Major' hurricanes are this rated as Category 3 or higher. Both Audrey and Alma occurred in the Gulf of Mexico as early-season 'homegrown' storms. The Atlantic's Main Development Region, located between northern South America and Africa, was always believed to be inhospitable to major hurricanes during the month of June - until now."

Hurricane warnings are now up for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine islands, Grenada and Tobago.

Beryl will probably slam those islands Monday, then head into the central Caribbean Sea.  Once it gets there, stronger upper level winds will start disrupting the hurricane's tall thunderstorms, making the overall hurricane slowly weaken.

It is still forecast to be a hurricane, though, by the time it approaches Mexico by the end of the week. Though Mexico is the most likely target, Beryl could veer north toward the Gulf of Mexico, or divert toward central America. 

Another disturbance Sunday along the coast of Mexico in the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico could turn into a tropical depression or storm later today before it moves ashore by tomorrow morning. Another disturbance way out in the central Atlantic that's roughly following the path of Beryl could become a tropical storm within a few days. 

 

Big Heat Record Tied In Vermont, One More Day Of It Plus Growing Storm/Flood Threat

Another cold photo to get you through one more
very hot, oppressive day in Vermont. Photo is
aftermath of a large snowstorm in Burlington,
Vermont, March, 2011.

 An impressive heat record was tied in Burlington Wednesday.  

The low temperature was 80 degrees, tying the all-time record for warmest low temperature for any date in Burlington dating back some 140 years years or so.  The only other time this happened was on July 2, 2018.

The high in Burlington was 96 Wednesday. On almost any other day in June this, too, would have been a record. 

But for June 19, the record high stands at 100 degrees, back in 1995, by far the hottest temperature ever seen in the data for Burlington. 

I guess they're something about June 19 that brings on the heat in Vermont. 

Speaking of which, we obviously have one more day of it. If you want an unnoticeable amount of relief from the heat, you got it this morning in Burlington. The low this morning was 79, so not as hot a start to the day as yesterday, at least technically. 

I think Burlington would have had a shot at 100 degrees Wednesday, if not for the thunderstorms that developed. 

Burlington only got a glancing blow from the storms.  But I was impressed by how fast some of the storms developed in the soupy air. 

A small cloud over Lake Champlain turned into a gully washer of a thunderstorm in St. Albans in Swanton within a half hour. Fifteen or twenty minutes later, that storm was producing damaging 60 mph gusts in Enosburg.  People in neighboring Sheldon reported several trees down. 

Other damage reports were scattered statewide. Numerous trees came down in Springfield around 2:10 p.m. At least one tree down onto Interstate 91 near Thetford. Other damage was reported in Danville , Wolcott, Calais, Lunenburg and Island Pond.

After yesterday, more of the same today as we start a transition from heat to a stormy, rainy period, that could bring localized flooding back to Vermont 

TODAY

You saw how easy it was for scattered storms to form in the very wet, hot air we had over us yesterday. Today, it will be even easier for that to happen because there's a trigger: A cold front lurking in southern Canada. 

It won't come through fast enough today to rescue us from this South Florida weather. It will still be super humid, with highs in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s right along the Canadian border, close to that cold front. 

Lightning strikes near the Swanton/St. Albans, Vermont
town line Wednesday. Storms should be even more
numerous today than they were yesterday. 

The cold front is weak, but it's enough to really help drive updrafts to create storms. I think almost everyone will get wet by the end of the day today, and a few places could have severe storms. I think the severe weather will be a bit more widespread than on Wednesday. 

Th threat is damaging winds, local flash flooding and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Anyone in Vermont and surrounding areas could have severe weather today, though obviously most places will escape damage. 

The best chance of severe storms is along and south of Route 2 this afternoon and evening. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center puts far northern Vermont in a marginal risk for severe storms - the category we were in yesterday. South of Route 2, it's a somewhat higher grade slight risk. 

There's a chance of isolated flash flooding today, too. That would happen if  a particular town or place gets hit by several storms, or storms train - meaning they line up and move like boxcars down the railroad tracks. 

The vast majority of places won't flood - we're not at the level we saw last summer - but we're still at risk for isolated instances of road and driveway washouts, small stream and basement flooding, and street flooding if a real gully washer hits a larger town or city. 

NEXT UP

The cold front, such as it is, certainly falls short of being a powerhouse. No big blasts of cool refreshing air like we had after the last cold front came through about a week ago.

Instead, this one will limp southward and stall near the Vermont/Massachusetts border by tomorrow. It will be cooler and somewhat less humid, especially far north, but not exactly crisp.

The front will start meandering back north as a warm front Saturday, ensuring it stays humid with a shower threat through the weekend. Saturday looks like it will end up kinda humid, but with close to normal daytime temperatures. A shower could come through at any time. 

We'll have to watch pretty carefully where that front ends up. If it stalls over northern Vermont, we have the training downpours again with the risk of flash flooding. If it stalls up in southern Quebec, we're in an airmass that can support strong thunderstorms Sunday. 

That mess is TBA with updated forecasts in the next couple days. 

An actual real live cold front, not some wimpy thing looks to come through late Sunday night to possible give some brief relief to the humidity. That warmth and fairly oppressive feel to the air  might make another run at us later in the week, but we do have hope of additional cold fronts to follow to temper the summer icks at times.  

Confidence Growing On Damaging Vermont Windstorm Tuesday Night/Wednesday As Storm Hammers U.S

When the National Weather Service web site home
page gets this colorful, you know there are a lot
of weather threats in the nation. This map 
is from this morning. 

 The developing storm that promises to hammer most of the United States has spread a remarkable number of weather warnings across the nation.  

A blizzard will envelop most of the central Plains, with heavy snow and wind extending up to the Great Lakes in the next couple of days. 

A tornado outbreak now seems like a good possibility from Louisiana to North Carolina. The threat of severe flooding extends from Georgia to southern New England. Wind advisories and high wind watches and warnings extend from New Mexico to Maine. 

This is going to be one humdinger of a storm. That includes us in Vermont

VERMONT EFFECTS

The biggest threat from this storm in the Green Mountain State is high winds, though wet snow, rain and flooding are some secondary concerns.

High wind details

In their forecast discussion early this morning, National Weather Service meteorologists said they have gotten even more confident that Vermont was in for a nasty blow.  This could easily be comparable to October, 2017 or December, 2022. Both those storms caused a ton of damage. 

Although there could always be something that short-circuits the winds so they're not so bad, so far we're not seeing that kind of break. 

If the forecast holds, expect tens of thousands of power outage and lots of trees down. Where the strongest winds blow, mostly along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, the winds would be strong enough to cause some damage to roof shingles and siding, and also threaten sheds, greenhouses and other un-reinforced structures.

I also hate to ruin anybody's lingering  holiday mood, but you probably ought to spend today taking down your Christmas decorations. They could end up blowing around and causing additional damage.

The high winds are forecast to start Tuesday evening and last into Wednesday, peaking in the early morning hours Wednesday.  

National Weather Service South Burlington issued this
wind gust prediction map. Those dark reds indicate gusts
over 65 mph forecast early Wednesday.

All except southeastern Vermont is under a high wind watch. In the watch area, gusts look like they'll at least be in the 55-60 mph range, with possible local gusts of 75 mph or even higher along the western slopes the Greens.

Wet Snow

The storm is a warm one, but it looks like it might start with a thump of heavy, wet snow, especially in the southern Green Mountains which could see six inches of "wet cement" snow late Tuesday afternoon and evening before a changeover to rain later on.

This wet, heavy snow will come as winds are ramping up. The combination of snow loading and the winds would probably make any power outage situation worse.  The northern Green Mountains will probably see less snow. Most valleys likely won't see much at all. 

But the added snow from Tuesday night, combined with the snow we had Sunday, along with the rain from this new storm, leads to......

Flooding concerns

There is a risk of flooding across Vermont, but mercifully - fingers crossed - it'll be on the minor side.

The biggest risk of serious flooding is in a zone from Connecticut, through the New York City metro area, through eastern Pennsylvania and to Maryland. Especially  heavy rain will hit there, and snow from the weekend storm will melt rapidly, leading to worries about a serious situation there.

Here in Vermont, the rain won't come down quite as hard, and the initial thump of precipitation will be a mix. That said, rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches, along with melting snow Wednesday do pose something of a threat.

At this point, I expect some ponding of water in low spots, especially since the ground is partly frozen and water won't soak in so easily.  Rivers will see sharp rises, but so far at least, they either won't reach flood stage or just overflow into floodplains. 

This bears watching, though. If the rain is heavier than expected and/or if temperatures soar above the predicted 40s, we could be looking at a somewhat worse flood situation.

BOTTOM LINE

Meteorologists are remarkably confident about this storm having some real impacts.  Details in the forecast will of course be refined and shifted before the event arrives. 

We've been having too many big storms over the past year. This year does not seem to want to get any quieter. 

Hurricane Idalia Forecast For Florida Turns Grim

Satellite phot from Sunday shows Tropical Storm Idalia
organizing in the southern Gulf of Mexico and 
Hurricane Franklin northeast of the Bahamas.

 Tropical Storm Idalia continues to get its act together in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and now Florida is under a terrible threat from this strengthening storm. 

As of early this morning, Idalia had top winds of 65 mph. It was starting to take its expected path north and will probably brush the western tip of Cuba tonight. 

At first, Idalia should only slowly strengthen into a hurricane as upper level winds are still somewhat interfering with how it's organizing itself.

But starting tomorrow, it's turning into a potential worst-case scenario for several reasons. For one, the water in the Gulf of Mexico in the path of the storm is super warm and toasty to quite a depth.  If the warm water layer was just near the surface, the storm might churn up cooler water from below to blunt its development. 

But all that warm water means Idalia will have plenty of fuel to strengthen quite a lot, as long as upper level winds aren't too strong. 

Unfortunately, those upper level winds look like they'll give Idalia a break, and possibly allow it to get a lot stronger a lot faster. Right now, expected top winds are forecast to go to 115 mph at landfall, which is expected on Wednesday. Forecasts like this are uncertain, as the warm water could maybe make the storm even stronger than that. 

Yet another worry in a long list of problems with this storm is it will likely be strengthening right up until it hits land. So, wherever Idalia lands, people might be taken by surprise by the intensity of the winds and the storm surge. After all, they might hear the storm has winds of say, 110 mph offshore, and that's what they'll expect. Then something even worse hits. 

Speaking of landfall, here's another issue: We don't know exactly where it's going to hit. It will be moving pretty much parallel to the Florida west coast. Any deviation from Idalia's predicted path could bring it onshore anywhere from Sarasota north to Panama City.   

Right now, the current project is for Idalia to hit land in Florida's big bend, where the Florida coastline curves toward the panhandle.  

On one hand, that would be kind of good since that area is lightly populated.  But not that good. That's because Idalia's storm surge will be widespread, and so will its torrential rains. A wide area of northern Florida is under the gun because of that. 

And, as I already noted, that project path could well be wrong. Especially if it goes further to the east and slams in to the Tampa Bay region.

Even if Idalia behaves like forecasters think it might and it goes by to the west of Tampa, that metro area would still be in trouble. 

The way Tampa Bay is oriented, combined with the direction of the wind and water flow with Idalia, a storm surge would keep shoving water up into Tampa Bay, causing widespread flooding.  Many thousands of people live in houses only a few feet above normal sea level.

I'm seeing some comparisons to Category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018, which also strengthened rapidly until it slammed ashore around Mexico Beach, Florida. I don't think, or at least hope, Idalia won't be as intense as Michael, but you never know. 

Oh, and here's another doozy that might make things worse, at least for some people.  Evacuations are inevitable, and probably have already started. It turns out, more than two dozen Florida Citgo gas stations received shipment of gasoline that were contaminated by diesel fuel.

If a motorist unwittingly filled their tank with that bad gas, they'll end up stranded one the side of the road. Just as Idalia is bearing down.  

Of course, there will be updates as Idalia gets closer to an eventual landfall Wednesday. Florida is in for another very rough ride. 

Storms, Flood Threats Continue To Harass Vermont After We Hoped/Thought It Might Be Over

In a still taken from a video, a lightning flash around
midnight in St. Albans, Vermont last night briefly
turns night into day, 

 New storms fired up in and near Vermont yesterday and last night, not causing any harm, but harassing nonetheless.  

And, after we thought we might be done with the severe weather and flash flooding, a new threat of both has arisen for tomorrow. 

Yesterday's isolated storms followed a familiar pattern. They erupted, seemingly as they often do this summer, near Port Henry, New York and and again further north not far from Plattsburgh, New York. 

The Port Henry area storm yesterday did create some penny sized hail and knocked down a few branches. I was kind of intrigued by satellite images of the cirrus blowing off the top of that nearly stationary storm near Port Henry reaching as far as southern Quebec north of New Hampshire. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington kindly responded to an inquiry I made and said this summer has featured consistent southerly air flow up the Champlain Valley. The Adirondacks, especially near Port Henry and Plattsburgh help the air flow converge in those spots, leading to updrafts that create storms. 

Those storms then start to move over Lake Champlain toward Vermont, but tend to fall apart when they encounter the more stable air created by the comparatively cool waters of the lake. 

Last night, a little before midnight or so, a surprise thunderstorm strong enough to prompt a severe thunderstorm warning moved through Franklin County, Vermont.  Here in St. Albans, I didn't notice any strong winds, just a downpour and plenty of lightning. 

I suspect a temperature inversion might have deflected strong thunderstorm wind and prevented them from reaching the ground.  That storm put about 0.75 inches of rain in my unofficial rain gauge, but it was localized enough such that Burlington never saw a drop of rain last night. 

Today should be quiet, though it wouldn't surprise me if one of those areas in eastern New York between Lake Champlain and the Adirondacks pop an isolated storm today. 

THURSDAY

This is the new trouble day, though as of this writing, we don't quite know for sure whether we'll have renewed flash flooding or severe storms. Or, if they do occur, where they'll set up. 

Something called a mesoscale convective system, or MCS by weather geeks, was in Wisconsin and Minnesota this morning. It's basically a big cluster of thunderstorms and these things are common in the Midwest during the summer. 

More times than not, if they affect Vermont at all, these MSC's are going through a weakening trend by the time they make it here.

A familiar map rears its ugly head again. Best chances
for scattered instances of flash flooding tomorrow
appear to be in Vermont, at least according to 
this morning's forecasts. 

Not this one.  It's going to hold together nicely, and create a severe weather threat and/or a flash flood threat in New England, including Vermont tomorrow. 

Who gets what depends on the track and timing of the MCS.  A more northerly route opens the door to severe storms region wide, along with a flash flood risk. 

A slightly more southerly route would continue the risk of flash flooding all over the state, but would tend to keep the severe thunderstorms further south. 

If the best atmospheric dynamics with this come through in the afternoon, that would be the best timing for severe storms. 

 There's some hints that the arrival and departure of this thing might be a little earlier tomorrow than first thought, which might reduce the risk of severe weather and flooding somewhat.  But that's not a guarantee. Forecasts could change. 

Still, it looks like this could actually pose a low but real tornado risk again across southern and central New England, places like central and western Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. 

All of New England has some threat of severe storms tomorrow, with the best chance, at least for now, south of a Rutland, Vermont to Portland, Maine line.  

As of this morning, the best chances of flash floods are focused - sigh - on Vermont. It'll be the drill we've become familiar with. Most people in Vermont will escape flash flooding but a few towns get nailed by washouts, road closures, that type of thing. Like we need any more localized damage.

Once again, expect some changes in this forecast between now and tomorrow. Of course, I'll update!

So the end to our flooding streak has been postponed. The next chance of any trouble would be with a cold front Friday night or Saturday, but so far the chances of flooding with that system look low.

After that, forecasters are still expecting an extended spell of cool and mostly dry weather starting later Saturday or Sunday and continuing into early next week. 

Shock Waves From Climate Change Is, Will Get Assist From Geopolitics

The war in Ukraine is one example of how climate change
doesn't work alone. Climate change, war, geopolitics and 
humanitarian crimes could combine to create
increasingly severe worldwide food crises

The war between Russia and Ukraine helps highlight how fragile the global food supply is, if you think about it. 

Scientists and many others are worried over how climate change is threatening, and will threaten global food supplies. Droughts, floods and temperatures extremes are already at least nibbling at the edges of our already fragile food supply.

Our enemy climate change doesn't work alone. It unfortunately has some powerful allies, including geopolitics, war and greed. The combination will contribute to starvation, migrant crises, displacement and political upheaval.  

At this point, Ukraine and Russia could be one example of how all this works.  

As PolticoEU explains:

"Russia's war in Ukraine has sent a shockwave through international food markets, worsening the already dire problem of global hunger by disrupting supply and inflating prices. The risks tipped the poorest, most famine-ravaged regions of the planet into political chaos and creating an unprecedented migration, according to David Beasley, the World Food Programme's executive director."

This week, a United Nations task force said the Ukraine war is "supercharging" a finance, food and energy crisis in poorer countries.  The war is another complication for these poorer nations already dealing with Covid-19, climate change and a lack of funding that could help fuel economic recoveries. 

The UN task force says 69 countries with an overall population of 1.2 billion are trying, and largely failing to overcome these three crises. 

 The PolitcoEU article doesn't mention climate change as a source of this potential global crisis. However, the publication points out that Russia and Ukraine are among the world's biggest exporters of grain, and the war will surely disrupt global distribution of these commodities. Half of Africa's grain comes form Ukraine and Russia. Both nations are major fertilizer exporters. 

For us in the rich west, that just means sticker shock when we run down to Walmart, or Kroger, or whatever your local grocery store is. 

Stable, major grain producers like China, the United States and Canada can pick up some of the slack, at least we hope. Drought or other extreme weather in these nations could always make things worse. (There's troubling signs of drought in the U.S. Great Plains, for instance). 

It won't be a case of no food at all. But shortages would increase global prices, and poorer nations won't be able to afford the commodities. 

World Food Programme's Executive Director, David Beasley, told Politico that billions of dollars must come in from richer nations and billionaires to avoid famine, destabilization and mass migration.

"If you think we've got hell on earth now, you just get ready.....If we neglect northern Africa, northern Africa's coming to Europe. If we neglect the Middle East, the Middle East is coming to Europe."

Which, among many other awful things, destabilizes Europe. And probably by extension, the United States. 

There's already a refugee crisis in Europe as Ukrainians flee the war.

And let's acknowledge the elephant in the room. Ukrainians are white. They obviously deserve all the help the world can give them.  The walking war crime that is Vladimir Putin has unleashed his horrors, and the West does need to counteract the suffering he has caused in any way we can. 

As you will recall, though, migrants from Africa and the Middle East don't get so big a reception when they arrive on Europe's shores.  There's a lot of reasons for that, and one of them might be race.  A new flood of migrants to Europe and possibly the United States would guarantee lots more political unrest. And contribute to authoritarianism.

Food shortages combined with political unrest can and does fuel migration from places like Africa

Authoritarians use migrants as bogeymen to consolidate their power, convincing their population that they are under assault from "them," all aiming to take away their jobs and their way of life. Never mind that the migrants just want to create a new life in which they're not starving, and can actually get ahead if they work hard enough. 

One possible way to reduce migration is that World Food Programme. They can't change hideous regimes that terrorize their citizens and force migration. But where food is a key issue, donations from rich countries can help. Whether the cause is climate change or some horrible dictator.

We now live in the new Gilded Age. I mean, let's check out the rich guys. 

Elon Musk's net worth at last count was $223 billion as of February. Jeff Bezos is worth $178 billion.

The rest of the top 10 richest people on Earth are worth a total of $923 billion, according to Investopedia.

True, many of these mega-billionaires do give away a fair amount of money. But honestly.

People who are innovative and make a lot of money because of that deserve to be rich.  Unlike what some on the right wing would say, pretty much nobody on the left side of politics wants to take all their money away.

True, some billionaires do give quite a lot of money away to worthwhile causes. But if you have over a $100 billion, and you gave away half that, even, you're still doing pretty damn well. Something like $50 billion can do an incredible amount of good.

I'm not suggesting we seize this wealth. I just think these billionaires should think a little more about the world around them.    

Climate change, political unrest, very bad players, worldwide criminals and the maldistribution of wealth aren't exactly easy to cure, especially when they're all combined into one big mess. But Ukraine is a reminder that climate change is bad enough. When you combine it with humankind's really bad record with geopolitics, it really does turn into an existential threat.