Tuesday Morning Update: Big Severe Storm, Tornado Threat Still Looms In Northern New England, With Wildcards

The areas under the gun for severe weather look
unchanged since yesterday. The latest NOAA
Storm Prediction, issued at 8:30 this morning,
still shows an enhanced, level three out of five
risk of severe storms and possible tornadoes
the evening across northern New England
Orange area is at highest risk

 Dawn broke early this Tuesday morning in a way that did not suggest super hot temperatures and an oddly intense severe storm outbreak was on the way. The sky was overcast with wildfire smoke making yet another appearance early today. 

That suggests a drab but peaceful day would be in the works. "

But nope! The weather forecast that we saw yesterday is basically unchanged from the one we had yesterday.  

A hot day looms, and worse, we're still on track for severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado or two this evening and overnight. Mostly in northern Vermont. 

The clouds are from a large but dying cluster of thunderstorms up in Quebec.  Those clouds will dissipate and move east and out of our hair later this morning. 

One storm in Quebec, a little north Sherbrooke, looked intense as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together, could spew some large hail on the extreme northeast corner of Vermont and on far northern New Hampshire later this morning.  

Other than that, very likely we'll see no storms until the main show this evening. 

The wildfire smoke will linger all day and into the night. We hate wildfire smoke for obvious reasons, damage to our health being one of them. But there's a chance the smoke could do us some favors in terms of how hot it will get today and how severe the storms will get tonight. 

Don't count on that though. It's still going to be hot today, and the risk of intense thunderstorms is still high for at least some of us. 

I'm going to bury the lede and talk about the heat first, then the storms. There's a lot here, so bear with me. 

TODAY"S HEAT

As noted, the smoke is a bit of a wildcard. It's looking pretty thick on satellite images. Enough to block some of the sun's heat  and possibly make it a little cooler than forecast. For instance, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 97 degrees in Burlington today. 

That might well happen, though the smoke could hold temperatures down into the low 90s if it stays thick enough. It'll still be hot and humid, of course. And the smoke in the air will make things worse for people with health problems. The heat and the smoke will team up for a one, two punch for Vermonters whose lungs and cardiovascular systems have already been battered by illness. 

Take it easy all day.

THE STORMS

As a foreshadow to this evening, weather radar picked
up an intense storm just north of Sherbrooke,
Quebec as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together
could dump large hail on the extreme northeast corner
of Vermont and far northern New Hampshire.
Otherwise, the severe weather should hold
off until this evening. 

This is probably what you came here to see updates. The wildfire smoke adds a wildcard to this forecast, too. I'll get into that in a bit. 

The overall scenario is pretty much the same as I described in yesterday's post. Ahead of a cold front, big thunderstorms will erupt in southern Canada and southern Ontario Ontario. Those regions are in for some powerful thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes. One or two of which might be quite strong.  

Environment Canada already has a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for these areas.

Late this afternoon, those will start heading south and begin to cross the border into the United States sometime after 7 p.m.  

The big threat hours across northern Vermont, along with far northern New York, northern New Hampshire and interior Maine are roughly between 8 p.m. and midnight. 

Those areas are under the Storm Prediction Center's enhanced risk for severe storms, a level three out of five alert level. 

Areas just south of that band are at risk of severe storms and tornadoes, too, but the risk isn't quite as high. I would say places south of Route 4 in Vermont are pretty safe from severe weather tonight, though there might still be some pretty strong storms near Rutland or White River Junction toward midnight or a little after. 

The reason for this north to south gradient in risk is timing. The potential intense storms lumbering across the order will do so toward the end of the day. After sunset, conditions start to work against severe thunderstorms. 

They'll maintain their juice for a couple hours after sunset. Then, as they head south later tonight, the storms will begin to lose their steam and weaken. By the time they reach Massachusetts, the storms will pretty much have gone pfft. 

Wildfire Smoke

There is a chance that the thick wildfire smoke might help blunt the development of these storms. The smoke could make the storms weaker than they otherwise would be. But don't count on it. Not at all. The atmospheric dynamics still look easily strong enough to overcome the effects of smoke.

Plus, how smoke affects severe storms is still poorly  understood. If you still see a lot of smoke in the atmosphere this evening, don't relax. We could still see some wild weather. I'm only mentioning the smoke as a slight glimmer of hope against the storms. I'm absolutely not promising anything here. 

The latest update on the situation from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, issued at 8:30 this morning has not backed off at all on their prediction of the severe threat. 

THE RISKS

Everything that you can possibly worry about in storms will be something to think about tonight. Here's what to look out for:

Wind

By far, the greatest risks from tonight storms are intense straight tine winds. As is always the case in severe weather outbreaks, many of us will miss out on the destructive winds. But some of us will see them, of course. 

The more intense storms could easily have gusts over 75 mph. You'll want to me on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows if anything like that comes through. Fine with me if you hide in your basement in that kind of weather. It's the safest place. 

Most of the storms will come at us in clumps or relatively short lines. Lines of storms will team up to produce locally destructive winds. If you see a line on weather radar that's shaped like a backwards "C", looks out. The forward portion of that backwards "C" could well have intense winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center continues to note that supercell thunderstorms may well be in the mix, ,especially in the enhanced risk area. 

Tornadoes

The vast majority of us in the North County will not see a tornado. A few unlucky people could, however, endure a twister. 

NOAA has the enhanced risk of severe weather in a 5 percent zone for tornadoes. That means that if you're standing at any point in the 5 percent areas, there is at least a 5 percent chance, but less than a 10 percent chance that a tornado will hit with 25 miles of where you are. 

 This outbreak poses the risk of a stronger tornado.   An EF-2 tornado has winds of 111to 135 mph, so they are more destructive. EF-3s go rip to 165 mph. 

The greatest risk for intense tornadoes seems to be in Maine, but the risk of those strong twisters still extend across northern New Hampshire, Vermont and New York. And it might not be just the supercells capable of producing a tornado. There might be enough rotation in those lines of storms to produce a twister or two. 

 Vermont, and for that matter northern New York, New Hampshire and interior Maine almost always see tornadoes that area at EF-0 or EF-1 intensity with winds of 110 mph or less.

Stronger tornadoes in Vermont are exceedingly rare. As far as I could find, the last EF-2 in Vermont hit Colchester in 1983.  There was an EF-3 listed for Bennington County back in 1998, but I believe that twister was EF-3 in New York, but weakened to a EF-1 by the time it crossed the border into the Green Mountain State. 

Hail

Some supercells, if they develop, might contain large hail, maybe the size of hen's eggs or even a little bigger. THat's more than enough to trash cars, windows and siding on houses and buildings. 

Flash Floods

The risk of flash floods is pretty low, but definitely not zero. Rainfall with these storms will be intense, so an inch or two could come down within an hour in a few places. That's enough to set up some small steam and creek flooding, washouts along steep roads, that kind of thing. 

Lightning

These storms will probably put on quite a light show. There should be quite a bit of cloud to ground lighting, so it will be dangerous to be outside, even if it's not windy or hailing where you are.

WHAT TO DO

First of all, don't panic. This is definitely a more wild severe storm potential than we're used to in the North Country. But like all severe weather events, a few of us will be very unlucky and get nailed while the rest of us come out pretty much unscathed. 

Even in those enormous Midwest tornado outbreaks that mow down entire neighborhoods and villages, a small minority of the region's populace is victimized. 

But while you're not panicking, there's a few things you should do. If you're camping in the woods, either in a tent or RV, get out by late afternoon. Tents offer no protection from falling trees obviously. RV's also offer basically no protection, and they can be blown over and upside down in strong winds. 

That sort of thing happened in Lancaster, New Hampshire when a supercell hit that area. 

If it turns out your campsite was undamaged from tonight's storm, you can head back there tomorrow morning. 

For those of us who are not camping, secure the lawn and deck furniture, and the potted plants that might tip over. You might also want to park your car away from big trees. 

Power up your devices by evening, because if these storms develop, we'll have quite a few power outages. If you live in a remote, woodsy area, be ready with LED candles and non-perishable food.

A handful of places might be out of electricity for days. And remote roads could be blocked for some time by fallen trees.

A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch will likely be issued later today. If your area is under a watch, continue what you're doing, but have a weather radio or other reliable source near you to receive any upgrades to a warning. 

If you receive a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, immediately head to the basement or an interior windowless room in your house. 

If you are in a vulnerable structure like an RV or mobile home and you eceive a tornado warning, wear a bicycle or motorcycle helmet if you have any. That will protect your head. Huddle under blankets and such in a small space like a bathroom or closet. 

There is no record of anybody ever dying from a tornado in Vermont. Let's keep it that way. 

After the storm, stay inside. It'll be dark out. You won't easily be able to see live power lines, sharp objects and other hazards. In a worse case scenario, if you have to leave your house due to damage, wear sturdy shoes

Odd Winter Heat Raising Winter Fire Dangers In Texas, Colorado, Elsewhere

Flames in the Sabine National Forest in eastern Texas.
Numerous wildfires have broken out in eastern Texas
because of oddly dry, warm winter weather. 

Since it's been oddly warm and dry in the southern United States so far this winter, out of season wildfires are breaking out in places from Louisiana to Colorado. 

There's already been a few high fire danger days in Colorado in December. This afternoon, parts of Colorado, along with areas of New Mexico, are seeing a high fire danger due to strong winds, low humidity and drought. 

The fire danger is expected to spread and intensify tomorrow. The Texas panhandle is the highest risk area on Monday. Nearby sections of southeast Colorado, eastern New Mexico and Oklahoma are at risk, too. 

Eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana are also dealing with fires after a winter so far of light precipitation and record high temperatures. 

In just one Texas County, one fire department got 50 calls for outdoor blazes. More calls came in the next day. This despite the fact that many East Texas and western Louisiana counties and parishes are under burn bans. 

East Texas saw about 70 wildfires in the week leading up to New Years Eve.

Wildfires also swept through areas of Oklahoma in December. Fires got so dangerous in Kansas last month that the governor declared a state of emergency. 

It's been dry in Florida, as well. It's usually driest in Florida in April and May, and the state does occasionally get spring wildfires. But so far winter has been pretty arid in the sunshine state, raising fears of winter fires, and ever-more ferocious wildfires in the spring. 

Things could get worse across Texas in the coming days. Dry, warm, windy weather is due most of this week. Some rain might finally arrive in New Mexico and west Texas around Thursday. Record high temperatures and dry weather are expected until Friday, when a little rain might sneak into eastern Texas and Louisiana.  

But that rain doesn't look like much, and it'll stay dry and relatively warm for winter. Up in eastern Colorado and Wyoming, there might be a bit of precipitation late this week, but they'll also revert to dry, warm weather by the weekend. 

Ominously, snow cover in the Colorado Rockies is far below normal, which could set the stage for widespread wildfires this summer. 

CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCE 

Winter wildfires have really become more of a thing in recent years. Climate change has brought warmer winter weather. That has allowed some areas of the nation to dry out more. 

Last January brought us the catastrophic Los Angeles area wildfires that caused 30 direct deaths and possibly as many as 440 indirect fatalities. 

So far this winter, California is relatively safe from wildfires due to some storms that blew through in November and December. 

Another devastating winter wildfire hit the area around Boulder, Colorado toward the end of December, 2001, destroying about 1,000 homes. 

There's essentially no longer a "fire season." With the help of climate change, fire season in the United States starts on January 1 and goes through December 31. 

 

National Weather Service Still Struggling With Staff Shortages

Despite promises of rehiring, the National Weather
Service remains dangerously low on staff.
Burnout looms large and that could
hurt public safety in the U.S. 

As tropical storms and hurricanes whirl, and wildfires threaten, and winter storms loom sooner than you think, the National Weather Service is still struggling with deep staff shortages, as the Washington Post reported this weekend. 

The stupid staff firings led by the odious Elon Musk last winter and spring, along with resignations and retirements means 600 workers, or about one in every seven, left the National Weather Service. 

Adequate staffing at the National Weather Service is at about 4,500 employees. Right now, they're well south of 4,000. 

According to the Washington Post: 

"Some National Weather Service staffers are working double shifts to keep forecasting offices open. Others are operating under a 'buddy system,' in which adjacent offices help monitor severe weather in understaffed regions. Still others are jettisoning services deemed not absolutely necessary, such as making presentations to schoolchildren."

Somehow, National Weather Service storm monitoring and weather forecasting have gone almost without any interruptions.  

However, just think if two big weather emergencies happened at once.  I don't know whether the NWS would have been able to handle it. Take this week for example,

Hurricane Humberto and soon to be hurricane Imelda have been very close together in the Atlantic Ocean, making forecasting difficult. .But neither storm is a direct threat to the United States, so forecasting for the two tropical systems is being managed OK.

But what if everything was further west. Imagine a scenario in which Hurricane Humberto was about to make landfall in the Carolinas while at the same time Imelda was threatening Houston or New Orleans.

Would the National Weather Service have the bandwidth to manage both crises? Once upon a time, they would. Right now, I'm not so sure. 

CURRENT NWS SITUATION

The Trump administration did a reversal earlier this year and granted the National Weather Service an exemption to a government-wide hiring freeze. But the fresh hiring largely hasn't happened yet. 

The incoming new NOAA director, Neil Jacobs, has pledged to address the staff shortages, but a U.S. Senate Committee just barely advanced his nomination on September 17. 

NOAA staffers, including most everyone at the National Weather Service are working overtime. Their work/life balance is shot to hell. WaPo says managers are picking up forecasting shifts. Some offices are sharing their employees remotely with locations that don't have enough staff. That requires overtime and working weekends. 

Even worse, if the government shuts down this week, NWS meteorologists considered essential employees. So they would be working without pay on top of everything else. At least until Congress and Donald Trump finally decide to get their act together. 

Good luck with that. 

There was a lot of concern this spring and summer that overstretched NWS meteorologists would miss things like rapidly developing tornadoes and flash floods. If that has happened, it's been rare. I haven't come across data showing whether or not forecasts for dangerous weather have degraded under the Trump regime. 

Stay tuned for eventual studies and research on that topic. 

Here's an example of the potential danger. The National Weather Service office in central Texas was able to issue timely flash flood warnings ahead of and during the epic and deadly July 4 weekend Texas Hill Country flash floods. Those floods still claimed more than 130 lives, despite the warnings.   

At the time of the flood, the Austin/San Antonio NWS office which covers the area hit by the flood, was  understaffed by six employees. One of the vacant positions at that NWS office was warning coordinator. 

The warning coordinator is the one who alerts local officials to danger. In the Texas flood, local officials appear not to have responded adequately to the warnings. Early indications are that was not primarily the fault of the National Weather Service. However,  communication between the NWS and local emergency officials is still under investigation, the Texas Standard reports. 

Three months after the flood, the Austin/San Antonio NWS office is now seven employees short of fully staffed. The warning coordinator position is still unfilled.

EXHAUSTED STAFF

Meanwhile, the longer the meteorologists are overworked, the more likely the will start to miss things. 

That could cost lives. 

"They're going to run out of gas," John Sokich, a retired National Weather Service employee told the Washington Post. "They're going to start missing things. You can't sustain that level of effort for much longer."

A NOAA spokesperson blandly said that the NWS "remains equipped to meet its mission of protecting American lives and property through timely forecasts and critical decision support services."

Yeah, only because NWS meteorologists are now practically killing themselves accomplishing that mission.  

New England Is Overdue For A Hurricane. Spoiler: Not This Week!

From AccuWeather, paths of famous New England
hurricanes. Click on the map to make it bigger and
easier to read. New England is overdue for a
hurricane. The last one to strike the region
was Hurricane Bob in August, 1991.

 It's the peak of hurricane season, the time of year that makes places like Florida in particular extremely nervous. 

And Florida should be nervous, given the spate of horrible hurricanes they've had in recent years. They've actually been hit more frequently and harder than average since about 2017.

As awful as the hurricanes have been, at least Floridians now know the drill. They know how to prepare, when and how to evacuate and how to protect property to the extent they can. 

But hurricanes can and have hit every part of the U.S. coast from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport Maine. So yeah, we're at risk here in New England. 

However, we've been blessed by a hurricane drought. (Given the current rainfall drought, it's nice to talk about a drought that is actually beneficial)

The last time a hurricane made landfall in New England was Hurricane Bob in 1991.  It made landfall in  Rhode Island that year, causing $1.5 billion in damage at the time. That's equivalent to about $3.5 billion in today's dollars. 

The last Category 3 hurricane to hit New England's Carol on August 31, 1954,

Per AccuWeather: 

"Typically, every 15 to 20 years on average, a hurricane will strike New Jersey on northward into southern New England. A major hurricane - so that's Category 3 or higher - for the Northeast is every 60 to 70 years or so," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva explained."

HURRICANE HISTORY 

The worst hurricane on record in New England was the Big One in 1938 which raced northwestward from Long Island and the central coast of Connecticut to west of Burlington.

Its strength and extremely rapid forward speed brought incredible winds and storm surges that killed upwards of 700 people, caused immense coastal destruction and toppled an estimated 10 percent of all the trees in New England. The Vermont maple sugar industry was devastated. 

If the Great Hurricane of 1938 came through today, it would cause as much as $10 billion in damage. 

There was a big spate of hurricanes and tropical storms between 1954 and 1960. Besides Carol, Hurricane Edna made landfall on Cape Cod on August 24. Hurricane Hazel made landfall on the South Carolina/North Carolina border in October of that year and raced to Toronto, Canada causing a lot of damage there. Hazel caused wind gusts of over 70 mph in western Vermont.

Hurricanes Connie and Diane in 1955 had fallen to below hurricane status by the time they got near New England, but they causes one of the worst floods on record in and around Connecticut. Then in 1960 Hurricane Donna swept through New England. 

Since then, there's not been much. The only other full-blown hurricane beside Bob to hit New England after Donna was Hurricane Gloria in 1985. 

NEW ENGLAND HURRICANE HOW-TO

As AccuWeather explains, the weather setup has to be a sort of Goldilocks situation, at least from the hurricane's perspective. A series of weather systems must line up perfectly to draw a hurricane to New England, which is why they're so rare.

First, you need a Bermuda High of just the right strength. Too weak and the hurricane passes northward harmlessly well off the East Coast. If the Bermuda High is too strong, the hurricane will head toward Florida or the Gulf Coast.

To get a New England hurricane, you also need a dip in the jet stream, ideally along the west slopes of the Appalachians or something very close to that. You also need a strong high pressure system in eastern Canada to block the storm from heading out to sea and directing it toward New England instead. 

Hurricanes also need warm water to survive. The water off the Northeast coast is not warm enough to support hurricanes. So a New England hurricane has to be racing northward to reach us so that it does not have time to weaken much over the colder water. 

EX-HURRICANES, RECENT CLOSE MISSES

As we well know in Vermont, it doesn't take a full-blown hurricane to cause huge problems for us. Hurricane Irene had been reduced to a tropical storm by the time it reached New England in August, 2011, but it caused one of the worst floods in Vermont history. 

Climate change is probably making ex-hurricanes more dangerous in Vermont and New England, and is increasing the chances an actually hurricane could hit us. 

A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. So when the wet remnants of a hurricane reach us, they can dump more rain than they might have decades ago. For instance, the remnants of Beryl teamed up with a stalled weather front in July, 2024 to cause the severe flooding that month in Vermont. 

Climate change is heating the oceans off the East Coast.  If a hurricane encounters the perfect weather conditions needed to force it to a New England landfall, the water it passes over would be warmer than it was decades ago. That would slow the pace of the hurricane's weakening and could lead to a stronger storm striking the region. 

Warm ocean waters also seem to be leading to an increase in stronger hurricanes down in the tropics. So if a hurricane starts out stronger when it's, say, off the coast of Florida, chances are it would be stronger by the time it reaches New England. 

Hurricane Erin in August, which reached Category 5 strength out in the open Atlantic, is an example of this. The Bermuda High was weak enough to allow Erin to pass far off the East Coast, so the only effect it had on New England was rough surf and beach erosion. 

It does seem like tropical storms and former tropical storms are targeting New England lately. Besides the remnants of Beryl, we had the remnants of Hurricane Debby in August, 2024.  Debby caused some serious flooding in New York and Quebec, and some damaging winds here in Vermont. 

Tropical Storm Henri made landfall in Rhode Island in August, 2021, causing flooding, wind damage and power outages.  Tropical Storm Isaias passed right over Vermont in August, 2020, but its heavy rain came amid a drought, so flooding was minor and wind damage was minimal.

CURRENT SITUATION

The tropical Atlantic is oddly quiet today, especially since it is the peak of hurricane season. A disturbance in the central Atlantic Ocean has become much less likely to develop into a hurricane anytime soon. 

But things could get going anytime between now and November. If Vermont and the rest of New England avoids tropical trouble this year, great. But sooner or later, at least parts of the region will have a hurricane. It's only a matter of time. 

 

 

The Flood And Heat Train Rolls On In Nation And Here In Vermont

The sky over South Burlington, Vermont looked
pretty unstable this morning, hinting at how
the lingering warmth and humidity will trigger
additional rounds of scattered storms today. 
Northern New York today looks most at risk
for local flash floods. 

Across the U.S. the flooding keeps striking, So does the humidity and heat in the East

 Let's get run through today's headlines and then go into details. 

FLOOD: Many areas under the gun this weekend. Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and New York are most under the gun today. 

HERE IN VERMONT:  The heat and humidity continue. Watching for our own risk of some local flash flooding and strong storms today and tomorrow

BIG RECORD TIED: Vermont ties record for the most consecutive weekends with rain

So let's get into the details

NATIONAL FLOODING CONTINUES TOLL

Saturday, it was Oklahoma, among other places, especially in and around Oklahoma City. It brought us the familiar scenes of blinding rain, stranded cars in deep water and water rescues.

Meanwhile, central Texas, including the Hill Country, is seriously under the gun again today. Flash flood warnings are in effect for a broad area of the state, and in parts of the area where more than 100 people died in flooding last weekend. 

Some places have gotten more than six inches of rain, and it's still pouring. Still, the amounts that are coming down aren't quite as extreme as last weekend. Plus, Texans are on high alert, given what has already happened. 

For the rest of today, renewed flash flooding is likely in New Mexico, scene of some horrible floods and debris flows around Ruidoso last week that killed three and severely damaged or destroyed at least 59 homes 

Slow moving or repeated thunderstorms in a wide band from central Virginia to the Adirondacks of New York are expected to create areas of dangerous flash flooding later today, It's impossible to know exactly where in this band the worst of it will be. Just depends on where thunderstorms set up

 VERMONT: MORE HEAT, CONTINUED LOCAL FLOOD RISK

Vermont is on the eastern edge of that risk zone for flash flooding today. 

As of early this afternoon we're starting to watch  eastern New York, including the Adirondacks for the higher risk of locally severe storms and pockets of flash flooding.  That risk in the Adirondacks should start to fire up by mid-afternoon. 

Here in Vermont, some loud thunderstorms erupted this morning in the far northwest corner of Vermont. That might have created a "pre-soak" environment for other storms later today. 

The morning storms also demonstrated how easy it is to fire up storms in such a humid environment. That humidity ensures storms could fire up anywhere during the day.  Between now and late afternoon, they should be pretty random in Vermont, maybe firing up over the mountains and hills, and then slowly moving off into the valleys.

Those slow moving thunderstorms could cause isolated pockets of flash flooding, but the risk is quite low.  The storms drifting in from that heavier, more dangerous activity in New York could trigger some flash flood risk this evening north of Route 2 and west of the Green Mountains. That might be especially true up by Alburgh, Swanton and Highgate, places like that, which got drenched early today. 

Whether or not you get a storm, today will be uncomfortable everywhere. It might be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday, because of the extra clouds around. There's also a breeze in the Champlain Valley, which is helping a little.

Burlington got above 90 degrees again Saturday, for the seventh time this summer so far. I'm guessing Burlington will fall short of 90 degrees today. But who knows? With a long enough period of sun, it could make it to that level again. But even if it doesn't, dew points between 65 and 70 degrees will ensure we're sweating - whether to the oldies or not. 

 MONDAY

The warmth and humidity grind on, as that weather front slowly stumbles across Vermont. It will be another day of showers and thunderstorms 

The risk tomorrow will come if several storms move one after another over the same area as the move parallel to that weak front. That puts us in another what is for now a low level marginal risk of flash flooding.

We'll need to watch trends, though. If updated forecasts call for more storms than forecast, or the storms move more slowly than we expect, that could boost the flash flood risk a bit.

We'll have updates tomorrow morning, of course!  

This hot weather will keep rolling on with seemingly no end in sight.  There is an end in sight, though.

Tuesday and Wednesday look really hot, with a couple more days with 90 degree temperatures. At least as far as I can tell today, it looks like the risk of storms goes down both days, but doesn't completely go away. 

Another, more juicy cold front should approach Thursday. We'll have to watch that day in case more heavy rain wants to break out. After that, early hints suggest - FINALLY - cooler and less humid air arriving maybe on Friday.   

 RAINY WEEKEND RECORD

Some of those northwest Vermont showers and thunderstorms brushed past the National Weather Service office in South Burlington this morning. Enough to drop 0.09 inches of rain, ensuring this weekend is now the 30th consecutive with at least some precipitation. 

This ties the record for most consecutive "wet" weekends, first set between September 1, 1934 and March 23, 1935. 

 It's obviously too soon to know whether we'll break the record next weekend. Early guesses call for a cooler, much less humid spell next weekend, which might minimize the chances of showers.  But we've seen the forecast change radically in the past. There's no reason it can't happen again. 

On Flood Anniversary, Vermont Risk Of Flash Flooding Increases A Bit, Still Not Nearly As Dire As Last 2 Years

Parts of Vermont and northeast New York got a slight
bump up in the risk level of severe storms. Earlier
forecasts had us in the dark green marginal risk
meaning isolated instances of damaging winds.
It's now "slight" meaning scattered instances, not
just isolated cases of bad storm winds. 

UPDATE 1 PM THURSDAY

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has increased the risk level for flash flooding in Vermont this afternoon and evening. 

Instead of a marginal risk of isolated instances of flash flooding, (level 1 out of 4 risk) we're at what is known as slight risk, which is level 2 out of 4 in the risk categories.

This means instead of just a 5 percent chance or so of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of your location, there is now a 15 percent chance or even somewhat better than that chance of seeing flooding in that radius.

This is because the developing storms are slow movers. We could see pockets of two to four inches of rain in a few spots. 

Flash flooding could happen anywhere around Vermont today, , but I still think the highest chance of flash flooding is in the Northeast Kingdom, where there have been local downpours all morning. 

Ominously, a flood warning already had already been issued around the town of Orleans in the Northeast Kingdom

I'll emphasize that we're still NOT going to see anything nearly as widespread or destructive as we did on July 10-11 last year or the year before. 

Most of us will be just fine today and tonight, and most of us will still see much less than two inches of rain.  An inch of rain, if you manage to get that, won't cause any flood issues. 

Updated risk map increases the flash flood threat in
Vermont a bit to slight, level two out of four on the
risk scale, as you can see below, it was earlier
just marginal, a level one out of four on the risk scale,

But I do think there will be some scattered areas of trouble in Vermont today. This could be the third year in a row with flood issues on this date. 

Stay tuned to your weather radar through the day and into the evening to receive warnings of local flash flooding or spots where severe thunderstorms could trigger damaging winds. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I guess July 10 and 11 have become a weather tradition in Vermont. 

It seems either something really bad happens, like the big floods of July 10, 2023 and 2024, or everything is fine, but something interesting happens with the weather. 

Not every July 10 and 11 is weather weird, of course. Historically, most of them are pretty routine, like any date of the year. But the dates often bring at least something vaguely noteworthy. 

The chilliest temperature of July, 2022 in Burlington came on July 10.  The low of 50 was not all that cold for July, but is still the coolest July temperature since 2015. July 10, 2020 was the hottest day of the month, with a high of 95 and a low of 75 in Burlington.

When I was a kid, July 11, 1976 stands out as one of the worst local flash floods I've ever seen, striking parts of Rutland County. Going way back to 1888, it snowed like hell for a time on the Green Mountain summits. 

As mentioned in my Wednesday post, today won't be a repeat of the hell we went through in 2023 and 2024. 

Today will just bring us some interesting doses of showers and thunderstorms.  Some of which seem destined to cause local spots of trouble here and there in the Green Mountain State.   So you'll need to stay on your toes. 

THIS MORNING'S SET UP

An area of heavy rain that caused flash flooding in the Mid-Atlantic States last evening moved into southeast New England today, where flash flooding from up to six inches of rain hit earlier this morning 

We don't have to worry about those annoying downpours,  as they will keep moving off to the northeast off the New England coast.

But here in Vermont, it was already a bit interesting as of 8 a.m. There were already some widely scattered pinpoint, slow moving downpours around the state. 

That's a hint right there we will have no trouble generating a bunch of showers and storms during the day today. It's hard to know exactly how each storm will develop and move, but what follows is a decent guess. 

Flash flood risk in Vermont is still marginal, meaning at
most isolated instances os flash floods. The yellow areas
have a somewhat higher risk of flash floods. 

Breezes going up the slopes of the Green Mountains should generate storms along those mountains. Maybe pretty early in the day, before noon.  Those should then drift eastward into the Northeast Kingdom and the Connecticut Valley.

The rest is complicated. The storms could generate outflow gusts that will interact with other weak disturbances coming in from New York State, which would then drift eastward into the Champlain Valley later this afternoon. 

 Eventually, they'll head through the Green Mountains into the eastern Vermont toward evening.

Other random storms could pop up just about anywhere else during the day and evening today.  

Most of the storms won't be super awful. However, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of Vermont and northeast New York  to a level two slight risk level for severe storms, which means scattered instances of severe storms, Until earlier this morning, the risk forecast was lower with only a marginal risk of isolated instances of severe storms.  

If severe storms form, they'll produce damaging winds in a few spots. There's also a risk of damaging hail, but that risk is pretty low. 

The storms will also move sluggishly.   With heavy downpours. If you're unlucky enough to have a storm stall over year, or get hit by several of them, there could be a local flash flood problem. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is still watching the current marginal risk of local flash floods.  

As of today, it would take probably two inches of rain within three hours to start flash flooding in most parts of Vermont.  A few isolated places in the state could see up to three inches in that time frame, hence the small risk of those flash floods,

I'll emphasize that the vast majority of us will see much less than three inches of rain today, which is why we won't have any widespread problems with high water. Still, take any flash flood warning seriously. If you're under such a warning, stick to high ground. Don't drive over a flooded road, as it could be washed away or undermined.

A flash flood could develop anywhere, but I'd say they'd happen in the Green Mountains or Northeast Kingdom. 

You'll want to have a weather  radio with you today, or at least some way to receive severe thunderstorm or flash flood warnings, just in case. 

But again, Ill stress that meteorologists expect nothing close to the scale we saw last year and the year before.  

HEAT

It's humid out there, and it will stay that way. The little boundary in New York that's helping to set off today's storms isn't really a cold front. It will have gone by us tomorrow, so we expect storms to be few and far between on Friday.

Temperatures are  going to go up again, too. The clouds and storms should hold temperatures today in the upper 70s eastern Vermont to low 80s west.  Starting tomorrow and on through at least next Wednesday, daily highs in Vermont should get into the mid and upper 80s. With a few 90 degree readings thrown in here and there.

The humidity will stay high, so nights will be stuffy too.  Not a good week coming up if you don't have air conditioning, I'm afraid.

Given the heat and humidity, there's a chance of a scattered storm or two each afternoon and evening, but most places will be dry most of the time. The best chances of storms at this point look like they'll be around later Sunday and maybe Monday.  

All Signs Point Toward Severe Weather In Vermont/Eastern U.S/Quebec Today, Nasty Hot Spell Coming

Today's updated severe thunderstorm threat around the
nation. Yellow areas including Vermont, are in a level
two out of five risk zone for severe storms
meaning there will be scattered instances of damaging
winds. There's a level three of five in the
Mid-Atlantic states (orange shading). The risk
of damaging winds is somewhat higher there, 

Those who were looking for thunderstorms in Vermont yesterday ended up coming up empty. 

Most of the storms stayed in New York, with flash flooding out in central and western New York. 

Some showers and storms did venture into far northwest Vermont but petered out rather quickly last evening.

Today is when everybody in a wide swath from southern Quebec down to the Carolinas is under threat from severe storms.  This obviously includes Vermont. 

Not everybody in this vast patch of real estate will see severe storms, of course, but the threat is there. 

This risk in the entire region I outlined includes damaging straight line winds, large hail, downpours torrential enough to set off some flash floods and even a low but not zero risk of tornadoes.

The biggest threat for tornadoes appears to be in the mostly flatlands of southern Quebec, near and south of Montreal. The higher threat of wind damage at the moment seems to be around New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and part of Virginia.

That does not mean Vermont is off the hook of course. We still have all of the above threat in play.

On top of that, another round of storms is possible Saturday night here in the Green Mountain State, followed by a brief, dangerous, very torrid spell of weather.

So let's next get to work planning your stormy day today, at least as things stood this morning. Stay on your toes, because things can change rapidly though the day.

TODAY'S SETUP

A sort of "preview" storm late Wednesday afternoon
looking west from Georgia Vermont. You can see
a column of torrential rain in the distance. Very few
storms in Vermont Wednesday, but they'll be much
more numerous today. 

A batch of showers and brief downpours was moving into mostly, but not exclusively into northwest Vermont as of 8 a.m. It looks like most of those were brushing far northwest parts of the state from St. Albans, north. 

It's so humid with an already unstable atmosphere, that a pop up downpour or thunderstorm could happen randomly almost anywhere in Vermont this morning.

They will be relatively few and far between, but enough so that you'll need to keep your eyes on the skies and be ready to head indoors quickly. Even this morning. 

It'll be interesting to see whether these showers, and lingering clouds behind them that would last most of the morning, will stabilize the atmosphere some and reduce the chances of strong storms later. Or maybe this will form a sort of new temperature boundary across part of Vermont that would enhance the storms that due later. 

There will also be a stalled west to east front across southern Quebec most of today that I think will enhance changing wind directions with height in the atmosphere. That's why I think there could be a tornado or two in southern Quebec. 

Northern Vermont will be on the edge of that, so despite the cloud cover today, the chances of severe storms remains in effect north of Route 2. 

All of Vermont should have plenty of humidity today, and especially places south of Route 2 should get into the mid and upper 80s to near 90 in a few places in the lower Connecticut River Valley. That's one ingredient needed for big storms.

The other storm ingredient is a cold front heading due east across New York State towards us. That will act a bit like a snow plow, providing lift in the atmosphere as it shoves into the muggy air over us. That lift is the rising air currents that lead to towering clouds, i.e thunderstorms.

THE RESULTS

This will be a classic summer severe weather day in Vermont. By that, I mean a few towns - definitely a minority of places in Vermont - will see damaging wind gusts that would take down trees and power lines, and possibly cause a little structural damage.

Most but not all of us will see some sort of thunderstorm today. Some of us will get bullseyed by downpours and a lot of lightning and some wind gusts. A few of us will be on the edge of some of these storms and have only minor effects and not a whole lot of rain.

Another few of us will get nothing at all. People in those towns will wonder what the fuss was about, having endured a humid, but rain-free day. 

I doubt there will be one solid line of storms that comes through. Instead, we're in for short lines and clusters of storms that will keep passing through, mostly between around 2 p.m. this afternoon and 11 p.m tonight. 

I wouldn't expect the storms today to be severe after dark, so we'll say 2 to 8 p.m. is the most likely time for anything severe. 

The other threat from today's storms is flash flooding. The good news is each storm will be moving along at a good clip. That means those torrential downpours won't last long in any particular spot.  They won't have time to put down enough water to cause a flood.

The problems would come if a few unlucky spots get three or four or five rounds of storms instead of just one or two. Then you start running into issues. Flash floods today in Vermont if they happen should be pretty isolated and not cover large areas.

FRIDAY:

Kind of a weird day, but nothing dramatic. The morning will be cool and windy and kind of cloudy, making it almost feel like autumn was in the air. Temperatures before noon should hold in the 60s.  Then, the flow of cool  Canadian air will get most shut off pretty fast. By late afternoon, it should be back in the mid and upper 70s with sharply diminished winds. The sun will have come back out. 

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT

Saturday itself looks like it will be a nice day for a change. We should have quite a bit of sun, with highs peaking within a couple degrees either side of 80 degrees. The humidity should be moderate, so enjoy!

However, we're still looking at the risk of a cluster of storms blasting through overnight Saturday night and early Sunday. We're still not sure exactly where they'll focus, or even whether they will entirely hit Vermont. But there is the risk of a noisy night with thunder and locally torrential downpours if we get hit squarely.

Stay tuned!

THE HEAT

The hot weather will begin to flood in on Sunday. It still looks like a decent beach day, with highs in the 80s to near 90. You'll also notice the  humidity building.

Monday looks like it'll be the worst of it, It now looks like actual high temperatures should hit the mid-90s in many valley locations in Vermont. Combined with the humidity, the heat index will probably be over 100 degrees. 

It'll be a dangerous day for anybody with health issues or those who exert themselves outdoors. Monday's the day to really take it easy, and seek out air conditioning if you can.

Record highs might fall. The current record highs for Monday are 96 degrees in Burlington, 90 in Montpelier and 93 in St. Johnsbury. 

Monday night will be dreadfully hot and stuffy, with lows staying near or above 70 for most of us with stifling humidity. 

Tuesday is now a bit of a wild card, depending on the timing of a cold front. If it comes through early, the heat won't be too bad, especially north.  If it comes in the afternoon, that means it'll uncomfortably hot with a risk of strong storms. If it comes through in the evening, then Tuesday will be just as bad as Monday.

We'll keep an eye on that.

The front will have come through by Wednesday, but should linger close by, meaning we'll remain at risk for showers and maybe storms later into next week too. It should actually stay near to a little warmer than average even behind the cold front that will end the heat wave 

 

CNN: National Weather Service Is Hanging On By A Thread, Lives In Danger Thanks To Trump

With staff and resource cutbacks continuing, the
National Weather Service is in more trouble
than previously though, putting the lives
of people facing dangerous weather at risk 

For the past couple of months, we've been reporting on the trials and tribulations of the National Weather Service.  

The Trump administration is dismantling the world's premier weather forecasting service. Given that the United States has some of the world's worst weather, frankly, that's dangerous. 

Late this past week, CNN reported that things are even worse than we thought. 

Reports CNN:

"The National Weather Service is in worse shape than previously known according to interviews with current and former meteorologists, due to a combination of layoffs, early retirements and pre-existing vacancies. 

CNN continued:

"Several current and former agency meteorologists told CNN they are concerned forecasts and life-saving warnings are not going to be issued in time."

That worry has been a familiar refrain as the agency undergoes steep staff cutbacks and budget slashes and just general disrespect. I think the National Weather Service is being degraded even faster than I thought oiit would. I'm more fearful than ever that Americans will unnecessarily die. For no reason. 

Virtually all meteorologists I have run across are smart, really know what they're doing and motivated to inform and protect the public. 

More experienced meteorologists -  the ones that have been at this for decades - are even more important, because they've almost seen it all. And can better than anybody else look at a weather situation and decide either it's not that big a deal or the the people in their area are in real danger. 

The CNN report tells us 30 of 122 weather forecast offices lacking their most experienced officials known as meteorologist-in-charge.  These include major population centers like New York City Cleveland, Houston and Tampa.

"There is not a single manager in place at the hurricane-prone Houston-Galveston forecast office according to a NOAA staff member who requested anonymity for fear of reprisal.

One NWS forecast office, in Goodland, Kansas, is no longer operating 2/7 with about a dozen more likely to shift to non-24 hour operation if action isn't taken this month. These offices includes several in the Plains States and stretch into the Pacific Northwest."

That lack of 24-hour staffing could certainly spread nationwide.  I've got a great example of why this is dangerous. 

VERMONT EXPERIENCE 

On the evening of July 29, 2024, an upper level low pressure system in New England was created some scattered thunderstorms in the humid air hanging over the region. Nobody, including expert meteorologists were that concerned - at first.

But late that night and during the predawn hours of July 30, National Weather Service meteorologists detected some unusual weather patterns associated with the upper low unfolding in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom. They could see that this very local area of weather was creating some intensely torrential thunderstorms. And those storms weren't moving away. They were staying put.

So, the National Weather Service in South Burlington quickly issued some strongly worded flash flood warnings for the Northeast Kingdom, calling it a flash flood emergency. That's the most dire weather warning you can get.

 Weather radios and cell phones in the region blared the warnings and people got out of harm's way. 

The resulting flood was exceptionally scary, and caused a lot of destruction. But since people received the warnings, no deaths were reported. 

Now imagine if the National Weather Service office in South Burlington had not been staffed during that overnight shift. There would have been no warnings. People would almost surely have died.

WEATHER EQUIPMENT

In that Vermont flood situation last year, and in countless other examples of dangerous weather, meteorologists rely on Doppler radar and automated weather observations stations to monitor how and where rapidly evolving storms are threatening. 

CNN reports there are more than 90 vacancies among staff responsible for maintaining and repairing those weather observation and radar stations. 

Outages in those systems aren't a problem only in storms. The equipment provides pilots and air traffic  controllers with detailed wind speed and direction data, which determines how aircraft take off and land safely.  

The American Meteorological Society is warning of some serious consequences due to the now crippled National Weather Service.

"Recent reductions in staffing and funding across federal agencies threaten the carefully established balance of the enterprise, placing the entire chain of observations, quality control, model forecasts and decision support for the protection of life and property at risk," the AMA said in a statement. 

"A failure of these systems would be catastrophic, causing, for example, shorter tornado warning lead times, more uncertainty in hurricane landfall intensity and location, and worse forecasts for snowfall amounts - all of which will put the pocketbooks and lives of hard-working Americans at greater risk."

I haven't seen any studies yet to determine how much forecast accuracy and safety has already gone downhill. It's too soon to tell. But I'm hearing more stories of tornadoes that have gone unwarned, storm systems that were either worse or not as bad as predicted, and other miscues.

Incorrect forecasts are the nature of the beast. The best teams of meteorologists can't avoid slightly botching an occasional forecast.

But with the National Weather Service now struggling, mark my words. This will become a worse and worse problem in the coming month.s 

 

Zillow Will Show Climate Change Risk In Home Listings

Zillow is about to add climate change risks to their
 extensive online home buyer site. 

 Zillow, that  ubiquitous real estate site that probably now displays every house in the world, and probably some on Pluto, will give climate change risks to all their listings.  

According to Zillow: 

"Zillow is introducing climate risk data, provided by First Street, the standard for climate risk financial modeling, on for-sale property listings across the U.S.  Home shopper will gain insights into five key risks - flood, wildfire, wind, heat and air quality - directly from listing pages, complete with risk scores, interactive maps and insurance requirements."

To get their hands on the climate risk data, Zillow partnered with an outfit called First Street, which specializes in climate risk financial modeling. 

It turns out, quite a few properties are not in great spots if you're worried about climate change disasters. 

As the Verge reports:

"In August, 16.7 percent of new listings on Zillow were at 'major risk of wildfire' while 12.8 percent had a major risk of flooding, says the company. To make potential homeowners aware of those risks, Zillows search map will be updated with color-coded highlights indicating which areas are likely to be affected by those five key risks, with each one having its own color scale to indicate the potential severity."

First Street offers an example of how the Zillow climate listings might be helpful:

About 78 percent of homes flooded by Hurricane Debby this summer were in spots where flood insurance isn't mandatory. However, 85 percent of them would have been flagged with insurance recommendations in Zillow's new climate risk listings. 

Zillow might have a willing market for this climate information.  A 2023 survey conducted by Zillow indicated eighty percent of buyers now consider climate risks when shopping for a home. 

While Zillow's climate risk information might be helpful, and First Street is a reputable and expert data company, judging risks like this still falls short of perfection. Per the Washington Post:

"Climate risk modeling experts are still developing the best possible way to measure the probability of flooding, fires and other natural disasters in any given area, notes Jesse Keenan, a professor of sustainable real estate and urban planning at Tulane University. 

The data provided from consumer-facing models can be 'uneven' depending on where a person is house hunting, because some risks have been studies more extensively in certain regions than in others, he said."

For most of us, buying a home is one of the biggest investments, if not the biggest investment we'll make in our lifetimes. We want to get it right. Climate change is one way the investment can go south in a hurry. 

So it's good that there are at least efforts to inform potential homebuyers. 

The climate information on Zillow's web site and on the iOS app should be available by the end of this year. It'll be on Android sometime next year. 

 

Heat Waves Are The "Neutron Bomb" Of Weather Disasters

Heat waves are the neutron bomb of weather disasters.
They don't cause much damage, but they are the 
biggest weather killer out there.e 

 The big heat wave that's expected to build the eastern United States - including Vermont - and southeastern Canada is already being described as "dangerous" and "deadly" 

For good reason.

Heat waves are indeed deadly and dangerous, which is why the weather community makes a big deal out of warning the public often dismisses  as "just some hot days, it's summer."

Heat waves are the neutron bomb of weather disasters. Unlike hurricanes, tornadoes and floods, hot weather doesn't cause a lot of property damage. Oh sure, some concrete heaves on a highway here, a railroad track bends a little. 

But heat waves don't provide the super dramatic images that attract eyeballs and clicks to social media and new sites.

What heat waves lack in photogenic destruction the sadly more than make up for in deaths. Some of the worst weather disasters in recent history have been heat waves. That's why I liken this to a neutron bomb, those infamous weapons that kill lots and lots of people but generally leave buildings and infrastructure intact. 

A recent Associated Press analysis shows that 2,300 Americans died from hot weather during 2023. This number greatly exceeded the toll in more famous big heat waves in 1980 and 1995

Climate change is making heat waves worse, and spreading them into areas that historically haven't been greatly bothered by such weather. New York saw 18 heat related deaths in 2023. Wisconsin had 14 and Washington State had 11. 

In states where fewer than 10 deaths were reported, data is suppressed for privacy reasons. Vermont is one of those states. Last year, Vermont had somewhere between one and nine heat-related deaths. 

In 2018, just one intense July heat wave killed six people in the Green Mountain State. In the past few decades the only weather event that caused more deaths in Vermont as the flooding from Tropical Storm Irene in 2011, which claimed seven lives. Last summer's catastrophic floods killed two Vermonters. 

Reporting heat deaths is complicated and climate change is certainly not the only reason for the spike in such casualties. 

As the Associated Press reports:  "Deaths are also up because of better reporting and because Americans are getting older and more vulnerable to heat.... The population is also slowly shifting to cities, which are more exposed to heat."

Societal ills are also combining with climate change to kill more people in hot weather. Last year, heat killed 874 people in Arizona, 645 of them in Maricopa County, which is basically metropolitan Phoenix. 

As the AP tells us:

"People were dying in their cars and especially on the streets, where homelessness, drug abuse and mental illness make matters worse. 'In the last five years, we are seeing this consistent and record kid of unprecedented upward trend. And i think it's because the levels of heat that we have seen the last several year have exceeded what we have seen in the last 20 or 30, said (Dr. John) Balbus, the Office of Climate Change and Health Equity at the Department of Human Services."

In other words, the heat is getting worse with climate change in conjunction with a fraying American social net. 

As horrible as the American death toll has been and will be from heat, we have seen some terrible rounds of casualties from hot weather in recent decades.

Analysts tell us some 62,000 Europeans died of heat-related causes in the summer of 2022, which was the continent's hottest on record.  That number was arrived at by comparing how many people died in the summer of 2022 compared to "normal" weather summers. 

An August, 2003  heat wave in France caused another 15,000 deaths.   Another heat wave in Russia back in 2010 caused 55,000 deaths.

Unfortunately, it's inevitable that some people will pass a way in the heat wave beginning engulf the Northeast. We just hope enough people take precautions and find places to stay cool so it won't be that bad. 

As Sadly Expected, More Tornado Tragedies Saturday; 15 Dead So Far, More Tornadoes Now Spinning In Midwest

The Denton, Texas Fire Department released this
photo of tornado damage in their city. Major
damage and some deaths were reported from 
overnight tornadoes in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas

UPDATE, 6:30 PM

Since this morning, the death toll from last night's tornado swarm rose to 15, making this easily the worst tornado outbreak in a very busy and tragic season.

Even worse, the developing tornado situation in the mid-Mississippi has gotten worse, as NOAA' Storm Prediction Center upgraded the storm risk this afternoon to moderate, the second highest level. 

Several strong to intense tornadoes are likely this evening in that region, says the Storm Prediction Center. 

Already, as of 6:30 p.m. several tornado warnings were in effect in Missouri.  Numerous severe thunderstorm warnings were also up for a zone from Arkansas to Ohio and western Pennsylvania.

A "particularly dangerous tornado watch is in effect for big chunks of Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee. A "particularly dangerous" watch means forecasters are confident there will be strong tornadoes, and perhaps many of them. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Tornadoes again swept the southern and central Plains yesterday afternoon and night, unleashing more damage, deaths and destruction in a remarkably busy and heartbreaking tornado season.  

At least 24 tornadoes were reported Saturday and more are expected today. 

CNN was reporting five deaths from tornadoes in Texas overnight. 

At first, it began to look like the worst of the expected Saturday outbreak wouldn't come to pass. Only a few fitful tornadoes were reported during the day in the southern Plains. Then, after dark, supercells really exploded, unleashing the barrage of tornadoes.

Tornadoes are much more dangerous after dark as you can't really see them coming, and people are not as likely to be paying attention to warnings. 

Likely the worst incident came Saturday night when a  tornado smashed through a travel center housing a gas station and a few restaurants off a busy highway in Valley View, Texas, television station WFAA reported.

About 80 people were in there at the time, some of whom stopped there for shelter when they heard tornado warnings in their cars. Most of the people inside were injured, authorities said, but none of the injuries are life-threatening.

However, elsewhere around Valley View, at least two people, and possibly more died when the twister roared through neighborhoods, WFAA reported. The dark of night and power outages hindered search and rescue, and officials said they feared what they would see when dawn broke. 

Valley View is along Interstate 35 about 60 miles north of Dallas. Heavy damage was also reported in nearby Celina, Texas, probably from the same tornado. 

An intense supercell spun off a series of destructive tornadoes overnight and early this morning over 220 miles or so from Claremore, Oklahoma to Briarcliff, Arkansas. 

Details were still sketchy this morning, but at least two deaths were reported near Claremore, which suffered heavy damage. Possible tornadoes hit an outdoor wedding in Capron, Oklahoma and a KOA campground near Claremore. Initial reports indicate injures are minor at the campground 

Widespread damage is also reported in Rogers, Arkansas. 

I'm sure more sad details will emerge as we go through the morning

TODAY

Tornado warnings were still flying as dawn broke in northeastern Arkansas and southeastern Missouri. 

A whole large area through the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys are under the gun for tornadoes, damaging straight line winds and large hail pretty much all day.

After tomorrow, the national tornado threat should wane, but not entirely go away, for at least a few days.  

For those here in Vermont wondering how that storm will affect us, we only need to deal with showers and non-severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night. 

Tuesday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Batten Down The Hatches!

Updated National Weather Service/South Burlington 
wind gust forecast for overnight. Click on image to
make it bigger/easier to see. If anything, the forecast
has shifted to include higher wind gusts in 
the Champlain Valley, compared to earlier forecasts.

 As of  5 p.m. Tuesday, snow has moved into Vermont a little earlier than forecast. 

That will make some roads dicey earlier than we thought they would, so the evening commute is turning out to be not great.  

The snow will be light to at times moderate, but won't amount to a huge amount before, say 7 p.m. We could see a couple inches by then. 

The evening snow is the opening act to the main show which will hit hard later tonight.  We've already seen wind gusts of 70 mph in western New York cities like Buffalo. That high speed air is heading right in our direction. 

The forecast hasn't changed much since this morning. We're in for an awful overnight here in Vermont, with strong winds, bursts of heavy wet snow, downed trees, power lines and blocked roads.

As of late this afternoon, you should have gotten all your outdoor errands done and huddling in your houses for the night. Here in St. Albans this evening, my husband is making a hearty stew to get us through the early evening . We've stored drinking water in jugs. LED candles and head lamps are at the ready. My cell phone is plugged in, hungrily accepting a nice battery charge. 

I don't know whether the power will be out at our house later tonight or for how long. But since widespread power outages are pretty much a sure bet in Vermont, everybody should be prepared. 

THE SCENARIO

Winds have started to increase as of 5 p.m., ,but are still reasonable, with gusts mostly at or under 30 mph. They'll gradually increase over the next few hours.

Heavier precipitation - the kind that will move in soon - more often than not suppresses high winds in Vermont, so the worst of the gusts won't happen  - at least for most of us - until after 10 p.m., when we should have somewhat of a lull in the precipitation.

We're still expecting a heavy thump of wet snow for the first half of the night, and that will prime trees, branches and power lines to fail once the wind really picks up. 

Since a lot of the precipitation will be snow, with only some rain late tonight and tomorrow, I'm even less worried about flooding than I was this morning. 

But of course we really have our hands full with the wind. 

A bit of drier air will move in aloft after midnight to suppress the snow and rain somewhat. At the same time, what is known as a low-level jet will move overhead. A low level jet is a band of high speed winds just a few to several thousand feet overhead.  

Screen grab of a video I took in January, 2016 of a 
downslope windstorm near Cambridge, Vermont 
that had broken trees looming over a road. 
Similar scenes should happen overnight and 
tomorrow morning. 

Meteorology is basically fluid dynamics physics. Air flow acts a LOT like water flow. The Green Mountains act as sort of a submerged boulder in a fast-flowing river in a storm situation like this.

 The strong east winds in the low level jet are forced to rise a bit to accommodate that "submerged boulder" consisting of the Green Mountains.  

It's basically the wave you see above the submerged boulder in the river, and the subsequent waves downstream. 

When the wave reaches its peak over the "boulder" the high speed wind is sort of grabbed and shoved down the western slopes of the Greens. The air gains momentum on its downslope path, which makes the wind even stronger.

 So, we're still expecting winds gusts late tonight in the 50 to 65 mph range. Local gusts very near the western slopes in particularly wind-prone areas could reach or go over 75 mph. 

One interesting - and rather ominous - subtle difference in the National Weather Service forecast since this morning, is the expected highest wind gusts have been nudged a little bit more away from the western slopes and closer to the Champlain Valley and Route 7 corridor in southwestern Vermont. 

It looks like top gusts of 60 to 70 mph could occur along and just east of Route 7. That's a pretty populated area. That makes us prone to more power outages and even some structural damage to buildings overnight. 

Much of the Northeast Kingdom also looks like they are in for quite a blow. 

We're still on track for lots of power outages. The majority  - but not all of us - should be fine though about 11 p.m. or so. Then it hits.

Mercifully, the period of highest winds looks like it will only last roughly six hours - from about midnight to 6 a.m. Then they'll diminish quite a lot. Wednesday will still be gusty, but not ridiculous. 

Actually, Wednesday in most of Vermont is shaping up to be a not terrible day, at least compared to the tempest we'll endure tonight.

Sure, it'll be breezy to windy, and we'll have a risk of showers through much of the day. But temperatures should peak in the low 40s, and only gradually cool down during the late afternoon and evening. 

This storm is being compared to that awful storm in December, 2022. But one big difference is that one featured a flash freeze and moderate snowstorm at the tail end.  That's not happening with this one.

I'm always looking for a bright side, folks! 

I won't get into it tonight, but we're still looking at another storm Saturday that will be similar to tonight's. So far, that Saturday storm is looking slightly weaker than tonight's but it will still cause additional problems. 

I'll get into that storm after we deal with tonight's mess. 

Video

To give you a taste of what to expect late tonight and early tomorrow morning, here's video I shot of a downslope wind event near Cambridge, Vermont in January, 2016. If anything, tonight's windstorm could be worse than this.

Click on this link to view, or if you see image below, click on that to view.