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| Interior of a building housing children at summer camp near the Guadalupe River in central Texas. Note the water reached the top bunks, judging from the mud line the windows.. |
As of early this morning, at least 78 people had died in the flooding. Another 41 people were missing.
Hope was fading that more survivors will be found. There was a report that two girls had been found alive Sunday, but that report turned out to be false.
We couldn't even squeeze one thankful moment out of this tragedy.
Mr. Rogers once said that if you're seeing something awful, look for the helpers.
There are plenty in Texas. Including camp counselors who braved rushing water to save a lot of the kids at Camp Mystic, the camp where some children were swept away an killed.
The flash flooding moved a little north on Sunday, hitting communities a little south and west of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.
Flood watches remained in effect Sunday for the Texas Hill Country, as more developing thunderstorms threatened further downpours.
Separately, serious flash flooding hit parts of North Carolina Sunday after Tropical Storm Chantal came ashore earlier in the day.
THE WARNING TIMELINE
More evidence emerged that the National Weather System was on entirely on top of the developing Texas flood situation Thursday and early Friday.
The flooding started after 1 a.m. Friday and rapidly worsened before dawn, when people are asleep and less likely to hear warnings. Or, given it was dark, they just didn't have the visual cues that something was going very, very wrong.
Meteorologist Jess Hawila at WFAA in Dallas provided a detailed time line of when and how the National Weather Service issued statements, alerts and warnings before and during the flood.
Between Tuesday and Thursday, the National Weather Service offices in San Antonio and Austin were putting out statements saying there was a flash flood risk Thursday night and Friday.
At 1:18 p.m. Thursday, the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for the the area including Kerr Couty, where the worst of the flooding hit. The watch mentioned the possibility of up to seven inches of rain.
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| Mountains of debris after the extreme Texas Hill Country flood this weekend. |
At 6:10 p.m. Thursday, the National Weather Service released a special discussion - one that is typically noticed by emergency managers.
This NWS statement referenced "concerning trends" indicating flash flooding was on its way and mentioned forecasted rainfall rates exceeding three inches per hour.
At 1:06 a.m. Friday, the National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for Kerr County, and used a tag "considerable" to the wording in the warning.
That should have triggered those automatic alerts that sets your cell phone blaring during emergencies such as life-threatening weather.
The NWS at 2:38 a.m. Friday issued a communication that five inches of rain had already fallen. That was followed up at 3:02 a.m. with a National Weather Service statement saying "a dangerous flash flood emergency is unfolding in south-central Kerr County.
At 4:03 a.m. a flash flood emergency was declared in Kerr County. Near Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, where those children were swept away and presumably drowned, the Guadalupe River reached major flood stage of 22 feet, ultimately cresting at 29.45 feet shortly after 4:30 a.m.
National Weather Service offices across the nation, including those serving the flash flood zone, have staff shortages due to mostly Trump administration cutbacks. But crucially, the local National Weather Service office increased staff Thursday night, knowing that dangerous weather was possible.
Normally, under our current regime of NWS staff shortages, two meteorologists would have been on duty that night. However, five meteorologists staffed the office that night and early morning.
GETTING THE MESSAGE
However, either the messaging wasn't adequate enough to convey the serious danger developing, or more likely, people just didn't hear the warnings.
Kerr County, the epicenter of the extreme flooding early Friday, does not have a reliable early warning system, despite the fact the area is highly prone to flash flood.
As NBCDFW.com reports, local officials said they did not expect such an intense downpour, despite the dire flood warning issued in the predawn hours Friday.
"We know we get rains. We know the river rises....But nobody saw this coming," said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly.
The county had looked into building a flash flood warning system a few years ago. It would have worked somewhat like a tornado warning system, with sirens and other means of alerting the public. But officials blanched at the cost.
We also don't know what went on at the camps where the children were swept away. What are the safety protocols for nights when flash flooding is possible? When does somebody pull the trigger to start an evacuation? Was there a detailed plan to hustle all the kids out of danger as fast as possible? Lots of inquiring minds want to know.
The timing of the flooding was the worst possible, as Texas Tribune tells us. It was the start of a major summer holiday weekend, when camps and RV parks would be fully booked. The more people you have in one area, the longer it takes to get everybody out of harm's way.
The emergency hit before dawn, when pretty much everyone was asleep. A lot of the people in the area were out of town tourists, who were probably unfamiliar with how fast these floods develop. When they did wake up, people were initially probably too groggy to act fast.
By the time the crisis hit, you had to get out of the way with lighting speed. Any hesitation would be fatal.
The end result is easily the Texas flood is the most deadly weather related disaster in the United States this year. Worse than the January wildfires in California. Worse than any of the more than 1,300 tornadoes the U.S, has seen this year. Worse than the catastrophic floods in and near Kentucky this past February and April.
VIDEO
A video by Gavin Walston shows the flash flood view from the 480 Bridge in Center Point, Texas. In a little over a half hour, the river goes from nothing special flowing more than 20 feet below the bridge, to a debris-filled horror overtaking the bridge. You can hear somebody yelling a Walston to get off the bridge near the end.
Below are two excerpts from the video
Video shows how fast water came up along one river in the flood zone. It went from a placid stream to something akin to a tsunami within an hour. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:
Same videographer, showing the house that came downstream in the video above. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.
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