Early Afternoon Vermont Storm Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Likely

Early this afternoon, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center
highlighted the area in purple as the most likely
zone for scattered severe thunderstorms, and possibly
even a brief tornado spinup. Although there's a low
but not zero chance of such a spin up in Vermont,
tornadoes are slightly more likely in northwestern 
Maine of all places, and southern Quebec. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were already starting to break out in and around Vermont as of 1 p.m. as the air destabilizes south of a warm front and east of a cold front. 

By the time you read this, much of Vermont and parts of New Hampshire and Maine, and maybe some other areas will be under a severe thunderstorm watch. 

Early this afternoon, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center issued a statement highlighting northern New England as a potential hot spot for severe storms this afternoon and early evening. 

Very moist air - gawd that humidity! - and an approaching little disturbance and a cold front, increasing winds aloft, combined with a low pressure system in southwestern Quebec are all doing their job to get those storms going, as we expected from earlier forecasts.

The timing of all this is perfect - afternoon and early evening. Those are the hours in which the strong July sun further destabilizes the air, ultimately making the storms more powerful.

There was some question as to whether we'd have enough late morning and early afternoon sun to prime the severe thunderstorm pump. but we've seen some big breaks in the clouds, especially early the afternoon.

This has all boosted temperatures well into the 80s. Even flirting with 90 in a couple spots. All that heat, combined with the already-mentioned humidity, is a recipe for big storms. 

Some of these storms will develop into at least brief supercells. Those are those rotating, powerful thunderstorms that can produce ferocious wind gusts, incredible rain rates and maybe tornadoes. 

The United States location with the greatest chance of seeing a couple tornadoes today is northwestern Maine. Go figure. Southern Quebec is also under the gu n for those twisters - especially those expansive flat areas outside of Montreal.

It's plausible northern Vermont could see a brief, weak tornado, but the chances are lower here than in southern Quebec or those parts of Maine. 

I'm pretty sure, though, that we will see scattered instances of straight line wind damage.

Not everyone will see a severe storm. Including in central and northern Vermont, where the risk is highest. There will only be scattered instances of damage. 

But be weather aware, and have a ready source to receive severe storm warnings quickly. If you get a warning you'll need to get into a sturdy building away from windows until it passes. 

As of 1:30 p.m., storms were rapidly developing, but most of them so far seemed to be in southern Quebec. Still, development is happening everywhere. And will increase as the afternoon wears on. The atmosphere is looking agitated, with storms seemingly forming pretty easily and quickly.  

Keep an eye to those skies this afternoon, folks!