Some Severe Storms Around Vermont/Northeast Today. But First Dry Weekend Since December?

Scattered severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts
and large hail are possible mostly in the yellow
shaded area. As you can see, this includes Vermont. 

After Wednesday's pleasant weather - marred slightly later in the day by the return of some wildfire smoke - today's going to be sort of a head's up kind of scenario. 

A cold front, a pocket of cold air aloft and some other disturbances will coordinate with each other to   bring us some strong to locally severe thunderstorms. 

After that, we have some potentially big meteorological news for this coming weekend.  More on that later, but let's get into today first.  

THURSDAY STORMS

It's looking like today might be kind of a weird thunderstorm day. Usually, on most stormy days in the summer, you get a peak in activity during the late afternoon and evening, and that will be kind of the case today. Best chances of seeing a storm are between 1 and 6 p.m. today. 

But it won't be limited to just the usual afternoon and evening rumbles and lightning strikes.  Some storms will come through this morning, as the atmosphere is unstable enough so that we don't have to wait until the sun heats up the air to help create our storms.  

Already, as of 7 a.m. today, a cluster of showers and a smattering of lightning bolts were  over the southern and central Adirondacks, making a beeline toward mostly central and southern Vermont. More storms had already gotten going over western New York and southern Ontario and were heading east.  There was already a local downpour in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont as of 7 a.m. 

Later today, a few thunderstorms could linger after a  cold front passes through this afternoon, which is odd. 

 Usually, once your cold front has passed, so has your threat of thunderstorms. But trailing disturbances in the atmosphere, along with that chilly pocket of air aloft, could keep scattered non-severe but possibly locally strong storms going until until nightfall.  

The bottom line is they'll come through in hit and miss fashion all day.  The vast majority of New England, including all of Vermont, along with New Jersey and eastern New York has a level two out of five risk alert for severe storms today. 

As usual, most places won't see damaging winds or hail today.  

But some will, and it will be kind of random. The biggest threat is those locally strong winds that could knock over some trees and power lines.  The chillier air aloft opens up the possibility of an isolated instance or two of hail big enough to dent your car or damage your garden. 

You'll need to listen for possible severe storm warnings and be ready to get inside a sturdy building. Today is NOT the day to go out on the lake, or take a hike up into the mountains. Especially with all that lightning that'll be crackling around the summits. 

In many areas of Vermont, the storms won't technically be severe or particularly damaging, but they will contain dangerous lightning, briefly torrential downpours, gusty winds and hail.  A few "lucky" towns    won't see anything at all, and others will just have a few rumbles of thunder and a little rain. 

I'm not worried about any flash flooding. Most places should get a quarter inch or less of rain. Towns that really get nailed could see up to an inch. But those higher totals will be pretty isolated.

DRY WEEKEND?

Last weekend was the 28th in a row with at least some precipitation.  In all the records at Burlington dating back to the late 1880s, there was only one other time there were more consecutive weekends with rain 

That was 30 such weekends, starting September 1, 1934 and ending March 23, 1935. 

Records are made to be broken, but this time, it's looking more and more like that Depression-era record will stand.

After today's storms, and a very low chance of light showers over the Northeast Kingdom Friday, it looks like we'll have to wait until Monday for our next chance of rain. You never know a rogue shower could arrive in Burlington maybe Sunday night, but right now I doubt it.

The Details:

The Fourth of July weekend might turn out dry, but it will be changeable.

Friday the Fourth should be dry and cool for the season, with refreshingly low humidity. Friday evening should be clear, so Vermonters will have no trouble watching the fireworks. 

Saturday morning will dawn clear and comfortably cool, but by afternoon, you'll notice it heating up, We should get up into the 80s but the humidity still woh't be so bad.

Sunday looks HOT, with highs for many of us reaching at least 90 degrees, with increasing humidity. 

A cold front should begin to cut the hot spell short beginning on Monday. Or maybe Tuesday. There should be some showers and storms around early next week, but it's too early to provide details.