A BIG Break Coming In Vermont Heat, Humidity, Storm Threat Siege

Another muggy morning dawns on my mid-summer
perennial gardens in St. Albans, Vermont. Much 
better air is finally due around here on Friday,
but we have heat and storm threats before then.

Yesterday was the eighth day already this summer that Burlington, Vermont made it to 90 degrees, so we're already ahead of normal for the entire year with those kinds of temperatures. 

It used to be the average number of 90 degree days was half that. Now, I see the average being bandied about as six, as such hot days have increased in recent years.

MORE HEAT

Today is a lock in Burlington - and many other towns in Vermont, for another day with temperatures above 90 degrees. It'll even be a little hotter than yesterday, 

The National Weather Service has issued heat advisories for the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys. If you combine today's heat and high humidity, the air will feel like it's in the mid and upper 90s. 

The rest of Vermont doesn't quite qualify for an official heat advisory, but it will feel horrible out there. You'll need to take it easy. 

The good news is the smoke and haze from wildfire smoke from yesterday is a little thinner. The bad news is it's still in the air, though. So the combination of a  little air pollution and the hot, humid air won't be so great on the lungs. 

CHANGES AFOOT

If you're tired of this weather, I've got a little more good news. A cold front that would end the heat is looking like it has a little more oomph than previously thought, and it's coming at us a little more quickly that originally planned. 

Before we get there, it's going to be hot and noisy.  Very typically, something called a pre-frontal trough often comes through before the actual cold front. That pre-frontal trough looks like it will come through after midnight tonight, 

So on top of the stuffy, humid air you'll deal with if you don't have air conditioning, you might be woken up early in the morning by thunder or the roar of a downpour on the roof, Not everyone will bet that, but some of us will.

The clusters of storms will move fairly slowly, so there's a low risk of local flash flooding. If anything happens, it will be isolated.

There's a slight chance Burlington could make it to 90 again tomorrow, but clouds and storm threats will probably keep things in the humid 80s. 

The actual cold front looks like it wants to come through in the late afternoon or evening. The timing is such that we might have another round of severe thunderstorms 

It looks to be the typical thing. Hit and miss. A few towns will get blasted by damaging winds and hail and torrential rains. Many of us will get a garden variety storm or just some rain. A few places will get nothing at all.

One literal twist in this is the low pressure system attached to the cold front will past by not far to our northwest, in southern Ontario and southern Quebec. This little low pressure system will add a bit of spin to the atmosphere. If that happens, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center suggests, there would be a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado with this.

That type of chance happens two or three times a summer, it seems, so there you go.

For now, there's a lowest level marginal chance of severe storms and flash floods in Vermont. I suspect they might eventually slightly boost the chances of severe storms from "marginal" to "slight" which would be level two out of five on the risk scale. Stay tuned

WHAT COMES NEXT

The dew point, a rough measure of how humid the air feels, has been hovering in the mid 60s to low 70s for days. That -  as you know - is oppressive as hell.

You're going to love Friday and Saturday. Dew points Friday and Saturday are forecast to crash down into the 50s, which is quite comfortable. It will stay warm but certainly not hot. Highs Friday will be in the 70s, with a couple spot low 80s here and there. 

Friday night's temperatures should drop into the 50s, so fling open those windows and let those cool night breezes in! Saturday looks sunny, the humidity will stay low and temperatures should pop back up into the low 80s. A Chamber of Commerce weather day, at least we hope!

We have an uncertain chance of showers on Sunday, we're not sure about that yet. But if it does rain a little in Burlington Sunday, that'll break the record for most consecutive weekends with rain at 31,  It's fun to see record broken, so I actually hope we get a sprinkle or two Sunday. Maybe before dawn or after dusk would be nice.