Storms, Heat Weren't As Bad As They Could Have Been, Cooling Trend To Start

One of the few strong-ish thunderstorms that developed
late Friday afternoon, see here over the northern
Green Mountains after dumping torrential rains
on Enosburg Falls. The storm weakened shortly
after this photo was taken, Severe weather didn't;t
really develop as forecast Friday, but it sure
was hot and humid and steamy. 

 Both the heat and the storms in Vermont on Friday didn't quite measure up to forecasts, but that's really OK. The alternative would have been worse. 

Storms tried to get going west of the Adirondacks early Friday morning and struggled as they moved east. They never did blossom until they hit the western slopes of the Green Mountains in central and northern Vermont. 

It looks like the mountains added a little lift to the atmosphere to strengthen the storms. The strongest storm developed a little northeast of Burlington. It was enough to knock over at least one tree in Jericho. That was the only report we've seem of a strong to severe storm.

Sure, some storms  had torrential rains. I noticed some minor street flooding in Enosburg Falls, for instance.. But it was certainly not a severe weather day. And many places remained dry. Here in St. Albans, we got a sprinkle, which was from the developing storm that eventually drenched Enosburg. 

Once the storms got into eastern Vermont, they weakened again. So it really wasn't the severe storm day we feared.

 A little disturbance  ahead of last night's alleged cold front was ultimately responsible for the storms that did form. The "pre-frontal trough," as it was called, is common ahead of summertime cold fronts. 

Clouds from that disturbance kept temperatures a couple degrees cooler than forecast. As if anybody noticed, as it was still hot and humid and gross.  (At any time yesterday, my sunglasses would fog up   if I stepped out of my air conditioned truck into our steamy atmosphere).

But it could have been a little worse.  But Burlington reached 92 degrees, not the record breaking 96 that was forecast. 

Montpelier did manage to break its record high for the dates, reaching 89 degrees. The old record was 88 set in 1949. But the hiogh temperature fell a little short of the predicted 93 degrees.

Now on to the forecast, and there are a couple more bumps in the weather road despite some really nice weather thrown in.

TODAY

It's a little hard to notice, but we're now in the "cool" air. Dawn broke with sunrise temperatures in the 60s across Vermont, with even a few upper 50s thrown in. It was warm, but still the coolest morning since Wednesday. 

Today itself will actually be a delight. The humidity will be lower than the past two days and temperatures will soar into the 80s with sunny skies. A beautiful day for just about anything outdoors, but still quite warm. Watch yourself if you're doing physical activity.

SUNDAY

Sunday afternoon and evening will bring on one of the bumps in our upcoming weather road. A pretty strong cold front will approach. You'll notice increasing humidity and increasing clouds as we head into the afternoon. We have two potential problems with this cold front. 

The first is the risk of severe weather. As is usually the case, just like we saw on Friday, we might not know for sure whether severe storms develop or not until shortly before they're scheduled. So far, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the best chances of strong or severe storms down in the Mid-Atlantic states with just a marginal risk in Vermont. 

But - as noted - the forecast could shift. Stay tuned to this bat channel for updates. If we do see anything severe, it would be in the late afternoon or early evening. 

The other problem is heavy rain and the risk of a few local flash flood problems, mostly north.  This won't be anything widespread, but a few spots could get bullseyed by a series of heavy downpours. NOAA has northern Vermont north of Route 2 under a marginal risk of flash floods tomorrow, 

A handful of places could get one, two, even three inches of rain in a short period of time. But most of us should see much less. In general, most places north will see about a half inch of rain, give or take ad the south should see a little less than half an inch. 

Again, this forecast could change and the amount of rain everyone gets should be super variable. Like yesterday's sprinkles in St. Albans and downpours in adjacent Sheldon. 

NEXT WEEK

It'll be much cooler, that's for sure. And mostly nice. Skies Monday and Tuesday should be at least partly sunny. Broader valleys would be mostly sunny. Highs should only reach the 70s with lows in the comfortable 50s.  Delightful unless you prefer the tropical heat we had yesterday. 

By Wednesday, showers could creep in ahead of our next big bump in the road. Thursday could turn rather stormy. 

Low pressure systems and storms are generally weak in the summer. Sure, you can get wild thunderstorms along otherswise wimpy cold fronts and near lame areas of low pressure, but the actual storm systems on the weather maps are usually pretty feeble this time of year.  

However, a strong storm for June looks like it would head at least sort of this way for Thursday. It's too soon to know exactly what this means for us, but depending on where the storm goes we could get quite a bit of rain, gusty non-thunderstorm winds or strong thunderstorms. Or maybe even nothing remarkable at all. Stay tuned!

Incredibly, Vermont Just Had A Top 10 Warmest Year, Sixth Year In A ROW That Happened

A torrid reading on a bank time/temperature sign in
St. Albans, Vermont on June 23. Incredibly, as 
measured in Burlington, 2025 was the sixth
consecutive year that was among the top ten
hottest years on record. 

Crunching the year 2025 weather data from Burlington, Vermont, I was surprised as hell to find out that the year just ended was the ninth warmest on record. 

That makes 2025 the sixth year in a row that was among the top ten warmest on record. 

There are 12 years in the top ten warmest years list, due to ties. Now, all but one of the top ten warmest years in Burlington happened since 2006. The rather recent year 1998 is the only other year in the top ten. Records go back to the 1880s.

Climate change is making its mark in Vermont, that's for sure. 

According to an April, 2025 Climate Central report, Vermont is the 6th fastest warming state in the U.S. Out of 242 U.S. cities Climate Central analyzed, Burlington is the fifth fastest warming city, after Reno and Las Vegas, Nevada and El Paso and Tyler, Texas. 

I was surprised 2025 scored in the top 10 because we had such a chilly December,  But the streak goes on. 

Still, 2025 was the coldest year since 2019, which was the 28th warmest on record, which is still a pretty high ranking. 

Until things started cooling down at the end of the year, 2025 was consistently warm. Burlington logged in with the fifth warmest spring and the fifth warmest summer on record.

March and July tied for the sixth warmest on record, Burlington tied for the seventh warmest June on record and tied for the tenth warmest September. 

The hottest temperature of the year was 99 degrees on June 23rd, which ties for the third hottest day on record in Burlington. Across the pond in Plattsburgh, it reached 101 that day, their hottest day on record. 

Seven daily record highs were tied or broken in Burlington during 2025. The 86 degree reading on October 5, tied the all time record for that entire month. That 86 degree October high was first set just a year earlier, in 2024.

Seventeen days in 2025 in Burlington reached 90 degrees. That brings to ten the number of years that have had at least that many 90 degree days. It was the sixth year in a row with at least ten 90 degree days. Until now, that hadn't happened before. 

RAINFALL AND DROUGHT 

The past year might be most remembered as slamming Vermont with a severe drought. It's true that precipitation in the summer and early autumn was below normal. But we've seen worse. The trouble had a lot to do with the above normal temperatures. 

Climate change again. 

Things were drying out by mid-August but then a weird heat wave hit. We endure three days of temperature sin the mid and upper 90s peaking with a reading of 98 degrees on August 12. Most Vermont heat waves are quite humid. The record June heat wave brought some of the highest dew points on record. It was actually far more muggy than Florida. 

The August heat wave was different. It was desert dry. So dry, that it set off a flash drought, Things deteriorated to dangerous levels in days. Then it kept worsening gradually until right after that record heat in early October. October was actually the fourth wettest on record in Burlington.

Gradual recovery ensued. 

Overall, rainfall in Burlington was 38.19 inches, or 0.66 inches above normal. It was actually the 29th wettest year in the 132 years I analyzed. 

We also had the third July 10 flood disaster on record. Severe flooding on July 10, 2025 mostly hit the Northeast Kingdom. It wasn't as bad as in 2023 and 2024, but bad enough. 

ICE Detainees Ironically Face Heat Risks

ICE detention centers are more likely than other jails
and prisons to be in hot parts of the nation. ICE
is allegedly holding detainees in dangerously
hot conditions. 

The word play is ironic, and infuriating. 

According to a Washington Post analysis by Amudalat Ajasa and Daniel Wolfe: 

 "Detainees at U.S Immigration and Customs Enforcement facilities may be more vulnerable to extreme heat exposure than people housed in federal, state and county prisons, according to a Washington Post analysis, and this disparity is likely to grow as ICE expands the nation's immigration system."

ICE expects to double the number of people it can hold from about 55,000 to more than 170,000.

Meanwhile, ICE facilities are disproportionately in hotter parts of the nation. According to WaPo's analysis:

"The facility endure an average of 29 days of dangerous heat per year - 11 more than other prisons in the federal, state and county leave. The hottest 10 percent of ICE facilities experience an average of 93 days of unhealthy temperatures each year."

Advocates, watchdog agencies and others report lots of problems with air conditioning in detention centers, at least according to the detainees who told them about the issues. Comprehensive data on the temperatures in those detention centers are not available. 

WaPo was able to compile reports and some Congressional oversight reports to glean some information. 

A 2016 DHS report on private immigrations detention centers found that detainees at every facility that was investigated detainees complained of problems with heat and cooling. Unannounced inspections at ICE facilities found that staffers "struggled to comply" with detention standards "related to environmental and health safety. 

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill) reported lots of trouble and overheating at two Florida ICE facilities he visited in June. 

WaPo's Ajasa and Wolfe also got into the Eloy Detention Center, which is 60 miles south of Phoenix, Arizona. They wrote:

"In a June letter, Rep. Yassamin Ansari, D-Az, pressed DHS and ICE officials about conditions at Eloy following a visit to the detention center. The letter included allegations that detainees ha been ordered to walk laps in a courtyard for hours until they were dizzy and ill. 

'Detainees described overcrowded, moldy cells, forces and dehumanizing marches outside in the Arizona heat, constant berating from guards conditions worse tha prison,' Ansari said in a statement at the time of her visit."

In statements to an immigration and refugee advocacy group, two detainees said they'd use wet rags and damp underclothes to cool themselves because the air condition units there in the middle of the desert would go out for a week or two or more at a time. Other detainees said air conditioning in some cells never worked at all. 

DHS denies there were problems with air conditioning at Eloy.  

I know a lot of readers here will say:  "So what! They're getting what they deserve!"  

Well, no. 

Definitely, let's get rid of the alleged criminals and rapists and gang members the Trump Administration said were among the migrants in the U.S. We don't want those dangerous people  here. 

But this used to be a nation of due process. You find out whether individuals are indeed as nasty and alleged, and then we deport and/or give them prison sentences. 

But they're rounding up what seems to be immigrants who are trying to do the right thing, take the legal paths to citizenship, and just throwing 'em all in detention centers. Mostly because Stephen Miller doesn't like brown people. 

Apparently, Miller, and the rest of the Trump administration seem intent on using our summertime heat as one method of torture. 

Cruelty is the point. 

El Nino Might Be Looming. That Might Turn A Climate Changed Hot World Torrid

Schematic showing how an El Nino develops.
Many climate watchers think a new El 
Nino will develop next year, possibly
causing more record high temperatures
for the world, 

 A (mostly) natural global weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean might propel global temperature to new heights next year. 

It's all about the familiar El Nino and La Nina cycle. 

In general, La Nina brings cool water to the eastern Pacific off the coast of South America.  In turn, global temperatures fall slightly. 

The opposite, El Nino, warms up those Pacific Ocean waters off of Chile and the whole world gets a little warmer. 

Which wouldn't be that big a deal without climate change.  

But climate change led to the El Nino year of 2023 becoming the hottest on record. Until 2024, when that record was broken. 

This year has brought mostly either La Nina or neutral conditions. And the good news is 2025 is turning to be cooler than last year. But barely. There's a chance it could tie 2023 as second warmest, but will probably end up at Number 3. Even if it ends up Number 3, it will be much warmer than what would become the #4 spot, 2016. 

What worries scientists, then, is 2025 barely cooled off from the hot times of the two previous years, despite a La Nina for at least part of the year. 

Now, signs are stirring that might point to a new warm El Nino in 2026. If that happens, we could get another record warm year in 2026 or 2027.  We would face even more intense deadly heatwaves, stronger floods than we've already been seeing, and worse droughts. 

The Washington Post describes the initial signs of a possible El Nino this way: 

 "Typically, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific Ocean, forming a predictable pattern called trade winds. These trade winds cause some of the planet's warmest ocean water to pile up in the western Pacific near Papua, New Guinea and the Philippines. But a few times a year on average, winds weaken and reverse direction, blowing from west to east at about 15 mph for a few weeks - forming a westerly wind burst."

This affects an area of Pacific Ocean water south of Guam that's the hottest in the world. The westerly wind burst pushes some that water across the Pacific toward Chile. It takes two or three months for this process to happen, so the warmer water would be near the South American west coast in early 2026.

However, as WaPo explains, one westerly wind burst does  not an El Nino make. You need a few of them to get a decent El Nino going. Which means we might not get an El Nino and if we do, we don't know how strong it will be.

Stronger El Ninos have a greater effect on global temperatures than lame ones.  

For now, NOAA predicts weak La Nina conditions we had in November to continue well into this winter, but transition to neutral conditions by late winter. Than means the eastern Pacific ocean waters won't be particularly warm or cool. 

The NOAA forecast doesn't get its what might happen after early spring. 

However, the private climate consulting company Climate Impact Company is forecasting El Nino conditions to begin taking hold in the spring. The forecast is based on various computer climate models. 

The Climate Impact Company forecasts notes that the northeastern Pacific ocean has warmed up a lot recently, and that is often a precursor to an El Nino.

The World Meteorological Organization predicts that if an El Nino develops, it won't be until after April 2026. 

November was the world's third warmest on record, even with a weak La Nina. You'd think November would have been a little cooler, since La Nina has been going on for several months now. 

So you can imagine how the global heat might be turned on big time if we get an El Nino, especially if it turns out to be jumbo sized. 

he weird heat waves and big storms that keep popping up in the news seem a little terrifying now. Wait until things really heat up.  

August Was World's Third Hottest, In Line With Most Months This Year

As it has for several years now, the August world
map of whether temperatures were above or below
the 20th century average shows almost
 exclusively on the warm side. 

The latest monthly report on the state of the global climate tells us August was the world's third hottest on record. 

That's the same as most recent months, as this year continues to trend just a tad cooler than the record global heat of 2023 and 2024. But other than those two years, August was easily warmer than any other in at least the past 150 years. 

The top ten warmest global Augusts have all occurred since 2015. 

El Nino, which tends to heat the world even above those caused by climate change, boosted temperatures in 2023 and 2024. 

 El Nino is not active, so it's mostly just climate change keeping temperatures above previous years.

Land areas had their fourth warmest August, and oceans had their third warmest August. Warmest areas included the Arctic, which had its second warmest August on record after 2023. Other particularly hot areas were most of the northern Pacific Ocean, far eastern Asia, western and northern Europe, northern Siberia, the Caribbean, eastern and northern South America, and adjacent South Atlantic Ocean waters. 

Unprecedented heat waves hit Spain, France, Japan, and sections of the Middle East. 

 Cooler than average temperatures, as usual, were hard to find in August. The only places that were a wee bit on the chilly side were parts of the southeast United States, eastern Europe, Far East Russia, a couple little sections of Africa, a perennial little cold spot in the North Atlantic south of Greenland and parts of Antarctica.

There was actually a small dot in the southern Pacific Ocean that had a record cold August, which is relative rarity in this age of climate change. 

The bottom line is that 2025 will offer a break of sorts from two consecutive record hot years the world had in 2023 and 2024.  The bad news is 2025 will certainly be in the top five list of warmest years. 

Meteorological summer, running from June 1 through August 31 was also the third warmest on record. 

The streak of warmest ever global temperatures from 2023 and 2024 extended into January, which was the hottest on record. Since then, each month this year was third hottest after the previous two years. Except for April and May, which were the second hottest on record for the world. 

I'm already guessing that 2026 also might not break the 2024 record for global heat. La Nina, the opposite weather pattern of the heat-adding El Nino is beginning to take over, according to latest NOAA forecasts.

At the moment, it doesn't look like it will be a particularly strong one, and it might not last very far into 2026.  But that could keep next year comparatively "cool."  Meaning there's a decent chance the world won't get as hot as 2024. 

However, there is no sign that climate change will ever go away. The world will keep getting hotter, and we will have another year - probably soon rather than later - that we'll have yet another record hot year. 

 

 

Arizona Heat Deaths Hit During Another Brutal Summer As Hot Spell Spreads Throughout West

Phoenix, Arizona is enduring yet another brutally
hot summer, even by their oven-like standards.
In recent days, the heat has spread 
throughout the western United States. 

Phoenix, Arizona has always been hell on Earth during the summer. 

Last year was by the far the most brutal ever. Phoenix endured its warmest year, longest stretch of consecutive days over 100 degrees, most days that reached 110 degrees, and warmest June, September, October and December.  

Everyone in Phoenix hoped this year would be cooler.   And it is! Kinda, sorta. The only problem is it is still one of the most brutal summers on record in Phoenix. 

It has become horribly routine. Every summer now is beyond what history taught Arizonans.  Climate change has turned the Arizona oven up to broil and beyond.  

That hot brutality is in the stats. This year, every day from July 27 through August 9 was 110 degrees or hotter. It peaked at 118 degrees on August 7, the hottest August day on record in Phoenix. 

On average, 21 days annually in Phoenix reach 110 degrees. As of Friday, this year already had 35 such days. At least it isn't as bad as last year, when they had a record shattering 70 days of 110 degree weather. 

To make it all the more unbearable, the monsoon season which often brings cooling thunderstorms has faltered.   

THE HEAT SPREADS

Over the past few days, it isn't just Phoenix. The heat has spread pretty much everywhere in the West, spreading northward all the way to Washington and beyond. 

In Washington State, the heat is forecast to last at least through Wednesday. Seattle is in the throes of its biggest heat wave of the summer. Highs on Saturday were near 90, and that kind of weather was expected to continue through Monday or Tuesday. 

Thunderstorms have been added to the mix, increasing humidity in some areas, raising the risk of flash flooding in the Sierra Nevada, and threatening new wildfire starts elsewhere due to lightning. 

In L.A County, thunderstorms with dry lighting and little rain set several small wildfires. The risk of more of these types of lighting-related fires through Tuesday, though Saturday brought the highest risk. 

The heat began a few days ago  in much of the West. Several Bay Area cities in California set record highs, including  Santa Rosa and San Rafael both at 100 degrees; Concord, at 101 and Livermore up to 102.  

Portland, Oregon got up to 102 degrees, Friday, breaking the previous record high for the date by four degrees.   Salem, Oregon had a record high of 101 and Eugene broke its daily record high by three degrees as the temperature reached 99 degrees. 

High schools in northern California and Oregon pushed back high school opening season football games into the night so that players and fans would avoid the most dangerous heat. 

DEADLY HEAT

Back in Phoenix, as always with Arizona heat, the hotter it gets, the grimmer the toll. As The Guardian tells us: 

"So far this year, three-quarter of heat related deaths have occurred outside, where temperatures in the most built-up, least shady parts of Phoenix can be 20 or 30 degrees higher on the sidewalk than the NWS's airport weather station. Unhoused people account for 40% of deaths, while substance misuse contributed to two-thirds."

The official death toll in Phoenix through midsummer was an about 30 percent  lower than last year, thanks in part to it being ever so slightly cooler in June and early July than in the record breaker 2024. The city has also improved access and extended hours at cooling centers around Phoenix. 

Still, The Guardian points out that heat deaths have soared in Maricopa County over the past decade or two. (The county encompasses Phoenix, its metropolitan area and many of its suburbs). There were 645 heat deaths in the county in 2023 compared to just 61 in 2014. 

Heat is the biggest weather killer in the U.S. About 2,000 Americans die of heat-related causes annually, and that might well be an undercount. 

AUTUMN IS COMING

It's finally forecast to cool off later this week in Phoenix with highs "only" in the 100 to 103 degree range. Much of the rest of the West should eventually cool down as well by the end of the week. By the end of the week, some cool, light showers might dampen Seattle. 

In the eastern two thirds of the United States, a large and sustained cool spell should keep temperatures comfortable all week, pushing the hot humid air all the way down to along the Gulf Coast. The first frost advisory of the season goes into effect late tonight in northern Minnesota.  

 

Stepping Down Unevenly Into Cooler Vermont/New England Weather Pattern. Drought Continues

A hazy sun sets over St. Albans, Vermont Wednesday.
It was the last time until next spring the sun set at or 
later than 8 p.m. True to the season, cooler 
weather is due by next week. 

 If you don't like hot weather, the good news is you probably won't see anything like the heat we've seen in the past few days until next summer.  

It's getting toward the back half of August. Things will start to cool. We'll probably have more hot weather, but nothing like the mid and even upper 90s we saw this week. 

WEDNESDAY EXPLAINED

The beginning of the end of the heat came yesterday with the arrival of showers and thunderstorms. 

I got a little smug yesterday morning with my surprise and delight over some early morning showers here in St. Albans, Vermont but the joke was on me.  

That was pretty much it for me with the rain. St. Albans received 0.23 inches, with nothing coming down after noon. 

The showers in far northwest Vermont kept the skies cloudy and cooler much of the day and stabilized the atmosphere. It only got to 87 degrees in Burlington and 81 in Highgate. So no new showers developed during the day much north of Route 2.

Elsewhere in Vermont, Wednesday was another hot one. St. Johnsbury set a record high for the date with 95 degrees. Springfield made it to 94 degrees. Montpelier got to 90, missing the record high for the date by just one degree. 

Unlike in far northern Vermont, the heat allowed widespread showers and storms to develop, though most places had unimpressive amounts of rain. Burlington had about a third of an inch, which ended an unprecedented dry spell for August. It was the first time on record the first 12 days of the month were rain free. 

Elsewhere yesterday,  Montpelier managed to see a quarter inch of rain, and Springfield a half inch. St. Johnsbury could only muster 0.15 inches. 

Wednesday also proved you can get a flood alert in a drought. 

An area around Londonderry, Bellows Falls, Windham and some other communities in southeast Vermont were socked by storms that dumped up to around three inches of rain in a short period of time. The National Weather Service issued a flood advisory for that area for a time late Wednesday afternoon.

DROUGHT REMAINS

Wednesday's rain was not nearly enough to quench our thirst, and mostly dry weather looms.  But at least there's a little precipitation in the forecast.

Today is starting out muggy.  One weak cold front came through, another boundary temporarily stalled in northern New York. Neither front was enough to push the humidity that built up yesterday out.

A third cold front today will do the job. This last front is weak, and will produce at most isolated showers. But it will flush the humidity out. You'll notice the change in the air this afternoon. The decrease in humidity will be nice, but it will come with some wildfire smoke again. Can't escape that! 

The drier air means you'll sleep better tonight.  Dry air allows temperatures at night to cool rapidly, especially if skies are clear. That'll be the case, so expect lows to drop into the comfortable 50s.

Friday will also be a nice summer day with sunshine and highs hitting the low 80s. After a fairly comfortable Friday night, a brief squirt of hot, dry air will work in Saturday. Some of us could get to 90 again. The humidity will stay low, so the drying ground and fire danger will continue. 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor is released every Thursday. I'll file a report in this blog thingy after it comes out later today. It will be interesting to see how much worse things got in Vermont after what I'm calling Vermont's Death Valley Week. That hot, arid air was something!

"FAIR WEATHER" COMING

Next week, right on schedule we'll enter what I call "Fair Weather." Not "fair" as in fair skies, though we'll probably have plenty of that. But in Vermont, "Fair Weather" is the not quite summer, not quite fall type weather you at least used to see in late August and the opening days of September. 

That's when most of the county and local fairs come through the Green Mountain State.  Traditionally, the weather during these events is cooler than what you endure in high summer, but warmer than the crisp air you'd expect once we really get into fall.

Due to climate change, "Fair Weather" has not been happening as much in late August in the past decade or two.  Instead, it's been staying hot. So this year might be a nice throwback to tradition. 

A cold front Sunday will throw some showers our way, but it won't rain all day.  Next week will feature highs mostly in the low 70s north to mid and upper 70s Champlain Valley and south. Lows will get into the upper 40s, low 50s, that kind of neighborhood.

It's hard to tease out exactly what each day next week will be like this far in advance.  Weak disturbances could generate a little rain on one or two days, but the dry northwest flow will probably prevent any of the real soakers we need.

But I think we're now past the truly hot part of summer. 

Startling, Weird Desert-Like Heat Wave Instantaneously Dries Out Vermont, Rest Of New England, Canada

Temperature sign in downtown Burlington, 
Vermont on Monday says it all. 

 I don't think I've ever seen a weirder heat wave, and such a rapid drying in Vermont.

Temperatures are near record highs, but we've seen that before. Climate change has us breaking high temperature records all the time, it seems. 

This heat wave is different, though.  Usually, summertime hot spells in New England are humid, oppressive, tropical. This time the air is desert dry.   Monday somehow managed to turn out even a bit drier than dusty Sunday.

The temperature peaked at 96 degrees in Burlington Monday. Not a record high because it fell on the anniversary of the city's hottest reading ever, which was 101 degrees in 1944. Montpelier did reach a record high of 91 degrees. Plattsburgh, New York also had 

Monday's dew point was in the mid-50s, reading to a relative humidity of just 27 percent. That's remarkably arid for an August hot spell.  This extreme heat and dry combo will continue today. More on that further down, but I'm still agog at how fast we went from wet to parched.  

I've seen Vermont get this dry in some past droughts, but not nearly this fast. Within just a few days, leaves on some of the trees along Interstate 89, the ones on thin soil above rock ledges, wilted like lettuce left on a hot stovetop. 

Lawns turned from green to brown seemingly overnight. Even the weeds on parts of my property shriveled up and died. 

I couldn't keep up with the watering on Monday.  I'd notice some perennials wilting in the arid heat, the same ones I'd thoroughly soaked the day before.  I'd water them, then move the sprinkler somewhere else. Those  perennials I'd just watered early in the afternoon were thirsty again by sundown.  

The only plant I have that seemed happy was a cactus in one dry, sandy corner of my gardens. Today will be another 

RECORD HIGHS 

Wilting goldenrods and parched ground in St.
Albans, Vermont this morning amid our
developing flash drought. 

Some places did have record highs Monday.  Montpelier reach a record high of 91 degrees, beating the old record of 90 in 2016. Montpelier's records only go back to 1949, which is why that 1944 heat is missing from Montpelier's data. 

Plattsburgh, New York also had record high of 91 degrees Monday. 

I don't know for sure whether the summit of Mount Mansfield set a record high but it must have, having reached an incredible 86 degrees, pretty remarkable for a Vermont weather station at about 4,300 feet in elevation. 

The summit of Mount Washington was 66 degrees at 3 p.m, - very hot for them. 

The heat and drought if anything  has been crushing in southeast Canada. Bathurst, in northern New Brunswick set their all time August record high on Sunday, only to have that record beaten Monday with a high of 99.5 degrees.  It was 95 degrees in both Montreal and Ottawa. 

In Nova Scotia, record highs included 99 at South Ingonish Harbor and 36.2 at Ingonish Beach. So much for a cool, refreshing vacation in the Canadian Maritimes!

Here in Vermont, more record highs will be broken today, as we'll have almost exactly the same weather as yesterday. The record high in Burlington today is 93 degrees, so we should get past that. A heat advisory is still in effect for the Champlain Valley, but really, it will be hot everywhere in the (slightly less) Green Mountain State today. 

The rapid drying should continue. As you might imagine, the forest fire danger in Vermont is very high. That's also true across northern New York, northern New England, southern Quebec. New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland remains very high and dangerous. 

HEAT RELIEF, AND A LITTLE RAIN?

Tomorrow will be the day we're waiting for as that cold front is still expected to come through. It will be one more hot day, especially in southern Vermont, which will see the clouds and showers from the front later in the day. It will also be noticeably more humid for just one day. 

It now looks like many of us will get some rain Wednesday. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is thinking about 75 percent of Vermont will see some rain tomorrow. 

Most of us won't get all that much, and whatever comes out of the sky won't solve our new drought problems. But at least we'll get a break.

Some unlucky towns won't get any rain at all, which is bad news. Some areas will see a nice if brief torrential downpour. In general, the northern Vermont will do a little better than the south.  In the northern half, rainfall for most people (but not everybody) should be in the quarter to half inch range, with a few lucky devils seeing three quarters of an inch or so.

Southern Vermont should get somewhere between practically nothing and a quarter inch. With a few pinpoint spots seeing a little extra. 

All this will help with the dry weather temporarily but will be no cure. As I keep saying, we need several day long, soaking rains, which are not in the cards for now. 

A few of Wednesday's thunderstorms might be on the strong side, but the atmosphere doesn't look like it will support any widespread severe weather.

RETURN TO DRY

Thursday and Friday will give us a break from the heat, but the humidity will be at rock bottom again, so the drying will resume.  It might be briefly warm to hot, but dry Saturday before another cold front arrives Sunday. 

So far, that Sunday cold front does to look that impressive, so don't count on a lot of rain with that. 

The weather pattern is looking like it will shift into a new configuration after this coming weekend. But it's not one that will help with the dry conditions.  It's a change from previous forecasts that indicated it would stay very warm through the end of the month. 

The latest extended forecasts favor mostly cool,  maybe sometimes almost autumn like weather through the end of the month . But with an air flow from the northwest, weather systems might tend to be moisture-starved because the overall air flow would prevent deep moisture from moving up from the south. 

The blast furnace heat will end after today but a drought looks like it might want to continue to develop and deepen.   

Hot, Dry Vermont Forecast Looks Even Worse. Some Places Might See No Rain For At Least A Week

Plants are wilting in gardens. This photo was taken
after I rescued a patch of white phlox that had seriously
wilted in the dry weather. This photo was taken
as they started to revive after I drenched them in
water for nearly an hour.  

I'm stunned by how fast my gardens have dried out.  Rainfall up here was pretty good all the way through late July. Aside from fast-drying potted plants, I didn't water anything until a little over a week ago.   

Now, I can't keep up. 

The ground moisture has evaporated under the relentless, hot August sun.  It doesn't help that despite the heat, it's not all that humid. 

Any moisture out there evaporates quickly in these conditions. And as the heat intensifies over the next few days, the humidity won't immediately increase  too much more to help preserve moisture. 

The forest fire danger continues to rise in Vermont.  I'd hate to see any forests in the Green Mountains state start to burn, but I'm sure at least a few small brush or woodlands fires have become inevitable this month. 

Our rapid march to a possible drought races on. 

DRY FORECAST

Weather radar late Friday afternoon showed a few 
scattered little showers and thunderstorms, but they
missed most spots. Radar images today through
Tuesday will show no or almost no rain
which will worsen our dry conditions. 

If you like summer heat, you're in luck. If you like cool intervals and showers, you're seriously out of luck. Quite possibly for the rest of the month at least. 

I haven't seen such a rapid summer drying since at least July through the first couple days of September, 1999. (But if you want a glimmer of hope, September, 1999 in Burlington ended up being the wettest on record, with 10.26 inches).

Once again, a very few lucky devils, mostly near hills and mountains in Vermont, the Adirondacks and in New Hampshire, received some brief thundershower downpours on Friday.  Mount Mansfield received 0.08 inches of rain, which isn't exactly a deluge. 

However, most of us endured the everlasting sunshine.  And a little wildfire smoke, that has been continuing to fade, for now.  

Prospects for any more thundershowers are poor. Sinking air with the incoming hot spell will seriously block any attempts by the atmosphere to generate showers and thunderstorms, 

The next chance of any real rain looks to be about Wednesday, but for now, that looks like it will take the form of some hit and miss showers and thunderstorms that won't give us the soaking we need. 

Long range forecasts to the end of August continue to call for above normal temperatures. Precipitation outlooks range from sort of close to normal to well below average. A new NOAA long range forecast released Friday leans us in Vermont toward mostly drier and warmer than normal conditions through September 5. 

THE HEAT

Long range NOAA forecast to September 5 continues
to lean toward the dry side in our neck of the woods

Believe it or not under our new, warmer climate changed "normal"  the first week of August fell short, coming in marginally cooler than the average based on 1990-2020 data. However, that first week was a bit warmer than 20th century averages. 

However you slice, it, the second week of August is coming in hot, The forecast for hot weather is mostly unchanged. It might have felt kind of hot Friday, with a high temperature of 87 degrees in Burlington.  

But that will end up being the "coldest" day until probably next Thursday at least.  A few towns in Vermont should reach 90 or better today. Many places will make it to the low 90s Sunday, Monday Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.  

The hottest two days will be Monday and Tuesday. There will be no record high in Burlington because it falls on the anniversary of its hottest day ever, 101 degrees, August 11, 1944.  Burlington's forecast high Monday is 94. 

Unless the forecast seriously changes,  the daily record high of 93 degrees in Burlington looks seriously threatened, as the forecast high for Tuesday is 95. 

 There's some questions as to how cool it will get behind that weak cold front that is due Wednesday.  

The consensus is: Not that cool. By the time we get to Thursday and Friday, it'll probably still be a little warmer than average on the supposed cold side of that weather system.  We also don't know for sure whether that lame cold front will limp through on Wednesday or maybe later. Who knows? It might not make it all the way through Vermont at all.  

At least we can take solace that some places are having it worse than we are.   

I mentioned the other day that Japan broke its national heat record with a reading of 106 degrees. Well, that news is now outdated. Japan got up to 107 degrees on Tuesday.

Phoenix, Arizona on Thursday reached 118 degrees, their hottest August temperature on record. (The hottest day ever in Phoenix was 122 degrees on June 26, 1990). Palm Springs on Thursday had a record high of 119.

As we get into the second half of August, we usually start to get into cooler pushes of air from Canada as autumn begins its approach. This year, those cooler spells might be delayed a bit until September. 

Weird Vermont Wet Spots Amid Very Dry Week; Heat Wave Looms

National Weather Service radar from around 6:15 a.m. 
today showed slow moving showers and downpours
in southern Vermont. While most of us are bone
dry, a few isolated places are picking up a lot of
rain. More widely scattered storms all day today.

 As you know, I've been harping about how dry it's getting out there, and how the forest fire danger is rising and all that.  

That's all still very true. 

Interspersed with the dryness is some isolated very wet spots. It's the strange winners/losers situation we sometimes see in the summer. 

The few showers and thunderstorms developed Wednesday, just as they did Tuesday. Almost all of them were in central and southern Vermont. 

The storms that got going moved very slowly,  managing to dump quite a bit of rain on just a couple spots. There's not much in the way of specific reports, since most of the showers and storms have avoided major reporting stations. 

But there are isolated spots in New England that are soggy amid an overall dry spell. Lebanon, New Hampshire, just over the border from White River Junction has 0.83 inches of rain in a late Wednesday afternoon thunderstorm.   

Just over the Vermont border in the Berkshires of Massachusetts, as much as 1.75 inches of rain fell Wednesday.

A patch of rain early this morning over far southern Green Mountains east of Bennington and southwest of Springfield this morning has surely dumped at least a half inch if not more in a few towns down there. I say that because those storms were just sitting there, hardly moving.

We'll continue that state of affairs today. 

More thunderstorms will erupt today here and there. With nothing to steer the storms, some might sit over the same spot for quite a while. So, though the risk is very low, there could be one or two pinpoint spots maybe in the central and southern Green Mountains that could have a local minor flash flood. 

 The chances of you seeing a thunderstorm today is pretty low,  probably not much better than 30 percent, if that. They could pop up almost anywhere, based on just local breezes, the remnants of old storms or subtle ripples in the atmosphere. There's really no real weather front or storm to kick off anything. Just August summertime doldrums. 

The more likely spots are in the Adirodacks and Green Mountains, where the slopes create the start of the updrafts needed to get storms going. There could be some storms near the western shore of Lake Champlain, where a breeze off the lake might interact with updrafts along the eastern edge of the Adirondacks. 

I'll emphasize that at least 99 percent of us will have no trouble. And the majority of us will see another day with no rain at all.  So, while it pours like hell in one or two towns, the rest of Vermont and surrounding areas continue to endure our dusty, smoky weather.  

SMOKE/HEAT

Other than the isolated thunderstorms and downpours, the trend now is for slowly decreasing smoke and noticeably increasing heat. 

The smoke is still sitting over us, with no place to go, no real wind to flush it out.

National Weather Service calling for moderate
to major heat wave in the Northeast. This map
is for Monday. Red areas will be the most
uncomfortable relative to local averages. 

 But the air is slowly getting better as the smoke particles continue to slowly fall out of the sky. 

Air quality alerts have expired, but some pollution remains, so it's not clean and refreshing out there. This slow trend toward less smoke will continue, but it'll stay hazy out there into the weekend. 

The real story is the heat coming in. That big high pressure system that's been over Quebec is now moving off the New England coast. It'll work in concert with the famous summertime Bermuda high to pump hot air our way. 

This hot air will last awhile,

The warmup has already started. Wednesday was a couple degrees warmer than Tuesday. This mornings readings were was a couple higher than yesterday's dawn, but still comfortable, 

Each day today through Monday will be a little hotter than the day before. An example, forecast daily highs today through Tuesday go as follows: 83, 85, 88, 91, 94, 92.  Nights will grow increasingly uncomfortable as we head into the weekend. 

So yea, hot. The humidity will also slowly increase, and will become pretty oppressive by early this week, The strong high pressure means sinking air, so the will suppress the chances for showers and storms Friday through Monday. 

That doesn't mean there won't be any widely scattered storms through that period. It just means if any do manage to get going, they'll be few, far between and brief.

It looks like a weak cold front still wants to approach us about next Tuesday, Judging from the forecasts, I'm still pretty unimpressed with what the front will look like. It probably won't bring temperatures down all that much, and I still question how much rain it might bring. 

 

Wednesday Morning In Vermont, Smoke Clears A Little, Summer Weather Rolls On

This morning's air pollution map form iqair.com show
improved air in northern New England (green dots) as
the worst of the smoke is suppressed to our south
and west for now, Air quality alerts are still in effect
across central and southern Vermont. 

 This morning was actually a pretty pleasant, cool start to the day in Vermont, especially in the northern half of the state. 

The smoke is greatly diminished in the north so the air quality alert is off the table  up there. 

Air quality up here is actually pretty damn good. For now, anyway,  Further south, that alert is still in effect, though the smoke isn't as thick as it was. Air quality in southern Vermont is moderate. 

Part of the reason for the better air is the remnants of that weak cold front that arrived from Quebec Monday.  

The front is now barely discernible, but it's there, hanging out in somewhere near or south of Rutland and White River Junction.  

To the north, not only is it less smoky, it's a little cooler and less humid than in southern Vermont. I noticed Newport was at 49 degrees this morning while most of the rest of the north was in the low to mid 50s - just a touch cooler than average for early August. 

Meanwhile, in the smokier south, temperatures were near 60 or so.

TODAY/TOMORROW

That old front will influence our weather in subtle ways today, just as it did on Tuesday. 

Yesterday, the front helped set off a few widely scattered thunderstorms mostly along and south of Route 4. A slow moving one in southwest New Hampshire actually managed to prompt a fairly brief severe storm and flood warning for small area down there.

Rinse and repeat today, with a few thunderstorms and showers in the southern half of Vermont today. One or two could pop up in the north, too, but chances are even lower up there.  Whoever does get rain is damn lucky. It's dry out there. 

Speaking of rinse and repeat, tomorrow should be nearly a carbon copy to today. On both days, the isolated storm won't be severe, and really don't pose a local flood hazard, even though they will be slow moving. We could have a scenario in which 90 percent of us get no rain or just a few hundredths of an inch at best, while parts of one or two towns get close to an inch.

Temperatures both days should be close to normal for this time of year, with highs within a few degrees either side of 80 with lows in the 50s most places, low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

The smoke will keep lingering, and even maybe drift back into northern Vermont. But the smoke is  thinner than it was, as the particles slowly fall out of the air.  

Big wildfires are still belching a hell of a lot of smoke up in Canada. The western United States is now also contributing to that mess as fires grow in number and size out there.  

However, for the next couple of days anyway, the winds are not blowing any new smoke into New England. We'll have more very smoky days this summer, I'm sure, bur the worst of this episode is over. 

HEATING UP

Temperatures and humidity have been pretty nice the past few days.  It hasn't been sweaty.  Days have been warm but management, early mornings have been cool. It's just the smoke that's been bothersome. Today and tomorrow look comfortable, too, but don't get used to it. Hot times are coming. 

You'll really start to notice it Friday as temperatures get well up into the 80s. By the weekend and early next week, many of us will be above 90 degrees each afternoon.  The humidity won't be too bad at first, but will slowly increase through the weekend.  It'll feel truly ugly out there by early next week. 

This hot spell looks to last awhile, but how long and how intense is anybody's guess.  For what it's worth, long range forecasts keep us warmer than normal most of the time through at least August 19.  

Smoke Continues To Sting Vermont, And Many Other Areas As Heat Wave (Eventually) Looms

Visible satellite photo from Monday afternoon showed
most of the wildfire smoke sandwiched between a weak
cold front in southern Quebec and another weak
front in Pennsylvania. That milkiness in the image
between those two cloud bands is smoke. 

 The wildfire smoke goes on and on here in Vermont and in much of the United States and southern Canada, and we're still choking this morning. 

The air quality alert persists in the Green Mountain State through midnight tonight. Other areas around the Great Lakes, the Northeast, parts of Texas, and of course Canada also remain under these alerts. 

Writing in Facebook, WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consul said the air quality index in Burlington was reported as low as 141 Monday, the second worst this year and the fifth worst on record since 2000. 

Spending four hours outdoors Monday in Vermont was the equivalent of smoking half a cigarette, Consul wrote.  

The smoke is still around today, and will be for awhile yet. 

A weak cold front has temporarily improved the air quality right along the Canadian border early this morning, where the air quality was regarded as "moderate."  And I mean right along and north of the border. Outside my St. Albans house, 15 or so miles south of the border, it was still awfully hazy out as I wrote this around 7 a.m. today. 

Elsewhere in and near Vermont, it was still "unhealthy for sensitive groups."

VERMONT FORECAST

The air will stay bad region wide today and tomorrow. For now, there' s no new smoke blowing in from Canada. But the air that's over us isn't going anywhere. The air will very slowly improve over the next two or three days only because all those tiny smoke particles that are getting in our lungs are slowly falling out of the sky.  There is no wind to push the smoky air away. 

We're in kind of a  holding pattern while strong high pressure pretty much stalls over Quebec and New England through Thursday. 

Aside from the smoke, this weirdly strong for August high pressure system has kept temperatures around here  pretty comfortable. Readings for the past few days have been close to normal for this time of year and will pretty much remain that way through Thursday. 

Reasonable humidity has also allowed nights to cool off comfortably. It was in the 50s to near 60 at dawn again today. Expect the same tomorrow morning and maybe Thursday morning, too.  Today might actually be a couple degrees cooler than the low 80s we saw Monday. 

That very weak cold front that staggered unnoticed into Vermont yesterday is still around and fading. Its remnants and a bit of atmospheric moisture that found its way in from the Atlantic Ocean means there should be a few widely scattered showers and garden variety thunderstorms every afternoon today through Thursday.

We could all use the rain, but the vast majority of us will get nothing. A very few lucky devils, especially near the Green Mountains of Vermont, White Mountains of New Hampshire and the Adirondacks could get a brief downpour. A few more of us could see sprinkles from dying showers moving off the mountains. 

Overall, though, the rather high forest fire danger will continue on.

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

That strong high pressure that's hanging around us will move offshore by the end of the week. That opens the door to a blast of hot air that will come in from the southwest. Temperatures could flirt with 90 degrees Friday in the warmest valleys. 

Ninety degree temperatures look even more widespread Saturday, Sunday and probably Monday. If anything, that high pressure will strengthen further, which would mostly shut off any chances of scattered showers and storms, despite slowly increasing humidity. 

The next chance of rain at all looks to be next Tuesday.  The forecast could change, but I'm not impressed by what's coming Tuesday, so I don't expect a lot of rain. I'm also doubting that thing on Tuesday will cool us off all that much.  

August Is Vermont's Month For Historic Heat Waves, (Though Not Saying It Will Happen This Year, I Think)

Then peak of summer might be over in August, but
a majority of Vermont/New England's most intense
heat waves have hit in August. 

 July is the hottest month of the year in Vermont, but most of our most intense heat waves seem to hit in August.  

True, arguably the granddaddy of all New England heat waves hit in July, 1911. And New England endured some historic heat this June.

But August is the place to be for extreme heat. So, if you think our current, refreshing spell of weather is the way things will go this month, think again. 

Here are some of the highlights for August Heat:

August, 1918: Some of the coldest weather on record in Vermont hit in the years 1917 and 1918, so I guess it was a relief to see some 100 degree weather in the Green Mountain State. Vernon reached 102 degrees and Cornwall hit 100.

That heat missed northern Vermont. Burlington got to 91 degrees on one day that month on the seventh. August, 1918 was otherwise a chilly, September-ish month. 

THE 1940s

For some reason, the 1940s brought us a series of torrid Augusts. We haven't seen anything like it since. 

August, 1944:  This was an especially intense and brutally long lasting heat wave. Burlington reached 101 degree on August 11 that year. But it was 89 degrees or hotter for an astonishing nine consecutive days from August 9 to 17. 

Because of climate change, August, 1944 is now relegated to the ninth hottest August on record in Burlington. Individual hot days in more recent years might not have been as extreme as 1944. But in the now-hottest Augusts of 2018, 2021, 2016 and 2022,  the heat has been more consistent, with fewer and less chilly cooler breaks.

August, 1947  The temperature in Burlington, Vermont reached 90 degrees ten times on this month. Dry conditions helped daytime temperatures reach such levels. Portland, Maine had only 0.27 inches of rain that August. The drought that late summer and autumn led to the most devastating wildfires in Maine history. Which is another reason to fear hot summers. 

August, 1948: Bellows Falls had six consecutive days in the 90s, peaking at 98 degrees August 24 to 30, which is awfully late in the season to have that many days so hot. Burlington had a four-day streak in the 90s,  

August, 1949: Burlington hit 90 degrees on eight days this month, part of a summer that brought 26 days with 90 degree readings. That's still the record for the most in a single summer.  

OTHER AUGUST HEAT

August 2, 1975 "Hot Saturday" gave us the hottest temperatures ever recorded in New England.  It reached 107 degrees in Chester and New Bedford, Massachusetts. 

Providence, reached 104 degrees, still the hottest temperature on record for Rhode Island. One weird aspect of the 1975 heat wave is how much it hugged the coast, with absolutely no sea breeze. Nantucket reached 100 degrees for the only time on record there. 

Portland, Maine reached their all-time high of 103 degrees. Portsmouth, New Hampshire reached 102. 

Here in Vermont, it was "cooler" with Burlington reaching 99 degrees.  That's a multi-way tie for third hottest on record. I'm not aware of any official 100 degree readings in Vermont but my unofficial thermometer in West Rutland did hit 100 degrees that day. 

August, 2018, 2021:  The sleepless in Vermont months, as the striking thing about this hottest month on record were the muggy nights, rather than hot days. Only four days got to 90 that month, including a record high of 97 degrees on the 29th. 

But eight days during this month failed to get below 70 degrees in Burlington, It never got cooler than 66 degrees from July 31 through August 9.

August, 2021 had even worse nighttime sleeping weather. Ten nights in Burlington failed to get under 70 degrees, with five consecutive 70 degree or hotter nights from August 9-13. The low on two days in a row never got under 75 degrees. 

THIS AUGUST

All signs continue to point toward mostly warm to hot weather for most of this month. True, yesterday and this morning were the coolest since early June, but that is about to change. 

Burlington has a real shot at being in the 80s every single day from today through the next two weeks. Some of those days could touch 90 by the end of next week. 

We'll see how the end of this month goes, but even those long range forecasts lean toward warmer than normal temperatures. 

One More Hot Day, But The Big Vermont (Temporary) Cool Down Is Just Starting

Our outdoor living summer living space in St. Albans,
Vermont. It looks like the weather will be conducive
to enjoying it most of the time for the next week. 

It was another warm, stuffy night in Vermont, and it will be another hot one today. 

But the heat is starting to wane. It will be slow at first. Today, you'll barely notice the improvement. But the cool down will pick up the pace within the next day or two.  

But that doesn't mean summer is over. More warm weather is on the way.  

It got to 91 degrees in Burlington Monday, the 12th time it has gotten to 90 this year. Springfield had its 13th such reading of the year.  

It's also highly likely July, 2025 will be one of Burlington's top 10 hottest Julys. That would make it three Julys in a row that are in the top ten hottest. 

Since June was tied for seventh warmest, we might well have one of our hottest summers on record. If August is warm.  These aren't your grandparents' Vermont summers, that's for sure. 

August will start off cool, but not necessarily stay that way. More on that in a bit.

TODAY

Even though temperatures before dawn in some areas like the Champlain Valley were in the 70s, it won't necessarily be another 90 degree day. The air flow has shifted into the northwest, starting the change in the weather, 

A weak disturbance in that northwest flow has brought air that's a touch cooler than yesterday. Maybe. And if it is cooler, it'll just be by a degree or two.  I give Burlington less than a 50/50 shot of making it to 90 degrees again today. But who knows?  

That allegedly cooler air today won't really make it into southern Vermont, so Springfield has a good shot at seeing their 14th day of the year to reach 90 degrees.  

I suppose there could be an isolated shower or rumble of thunder this afternoon, but don't count on it. Despite the relative warmth and humidity the ingredients just aren't there.

WEDNESDAY

The "real" cold front should come through tomorrow to drop our temperatures. But it will come through in pieces. That means the front probably won't be able to create much of an organized line of big storms to mark the change.

Instead there will probably be a broken batch of scattered showers and storms  coming through. They will be hit and miss.  Some places won't see any rain at all. A small minority of us will see a nice but fairly brief torrential downpour. The chances of a severe storm are not zero, but don't count on any barn busters. If there is something rambunctious, it's most likely south of Route 4. 

Most of us will just have light rains coming from the cold front. Aside from the few places bullseyed by the few real storms we'll see, count on a quarter inch or less of rain. As noted, some rain gauges will remain dry. 

 It'll still be fairly warm and muggy. In fact, some southern Vermont towns like Springfield could hit 90 one last time. But some of us, especially in the north, will start to feel a change in the air later in the day.

THURSDAY

It now looks like the flip to cooler and drier air has some complications. Wednesday's cold front looks like it will get hung up in southern New England temporarily, and a ripple of a storm will probably form along it.

This thing looks like it will dump a huge boatload of rain on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States, possibly causing some flooding.

Some of the models are throwing the rain back northward for a time on Thursday. Far southern Vermont could end up with a drenching rain on Thursday. Even though it's only a couple days away, we still don't know for sure whether that will happen, so forecasters will have to keep an eye on it. 

It's a little dry in southern Vermont, so if a good soaking does manage to materialize, that would be a good thing, actually. 

We also don't know yet how far north the rain will get. There's still a good chance it won't rain at all in the north. But it might not be quite as sunny up there as we originally thought.

We do know everyone in Vermont will find the air much cooler Thursday. And much less humid, at least  in the north.

BEYOND THURSDAY

The weather does look delightful Friday through Sunday, at least mostly.

The air will be super dry and comfortable through that period. It should be sunny, too. Delightful! Except for the risk of wildfire smoke. Since the air is coming from Canada, and central Canada is still burning, we get smoke. 

It's a little early to know how much smoke we'll see, but this pleasant spell of weather might not feature nice blue skies, but some haze.

I keep saying it's going to be cool toward Friday and Saturday but not really. The nights will have a bit o a chill, getting into the 40s in many places and low 50s in the Champlain Valley. But daytimes will reach the comfortable 70s.

Temperatures should get quite warm again starting Sunday and continuing much of next week. I don't know if we'll have more 90 degree weather. That remains to be seen. But summer ain't over in Vermont!

 

Another 90 Degree Day In Vermont, 12 Measured So Far This Year At Burlington

Lots of hydrangeas soaking up the hot sun
today in St. Albans, Vermont. 

 The temperature at Burlington, Vermont reached at least 90 degrees today, the 12th day this year it got that warm.  

This puts us in pretty rare territory. It's only the 20th time in the past 125 years it's gotten to 90 degrees at least twelve times. 

At least the humidity is slightly better. It was oppressive this morning, with a dew point of around 70 degrees. 

This afternoon, the dew point was around 60, which really isn't all that bad. It's just the temperature that's kind of rough if you don't like sweating it out. 

Earlier forecasts had indicated it might get to 90 degrees again tomorrow, but now that's looking less likely. As mentioned this morning, the weather pattern has already started to shift to a northwest flow, so it's going to start getting cooler.

Only slowly at first. Updated forecasts, which, to be fair, have been flip-flopping, as of this evening have been hinting at slightly cooler air invading tomorrow. It won't exactly be chilly, as it will still get well up into the 80s. 

The main cold front is still likely to come through Wednesday with what at this point look like scattered, unremarkable showers and thunderstorms. 

The cool, dry, sunny weather is still in the forecast, but there's a potential fly in that ointment. 

Several computer models hint that a storm is forecast to form along the southward sinking cold front on Thursday, which might dump some heavy rain in southern New England. Some computer models hint that some of that rain might work its way northward into at least the southern half of Vermont Thursday. 

We'll keep checking updates and update you tomorrow morning.  

Monday Morning Weather: Dangerous Storms Northern Plain: Here In Vermont, Kinda Hot, Smoky As Late Week Dry Spell Looms

A destructive derecho is possible in the northern Plains
today especially in the orange and red areas on map,

While some areas of the nation continue to experience some odd, extreme and often dangerous weather, we in Vermont have settled into a sometimes foggy, sometimes humid, sometimes very warm and changeable weather pattern. 

More on Vermont in a minute, but we should get into some of the big weather headlines from yesterday. 

TAMPA HEAT

Tampa, Florida made local history by reaching 100 degrees, the first time that's happened since they started keeping track there in around 1890.

It might seem surprising that Tampa had never been 100 degrees. After all, July in Florida is hot.

It sure is. But in Tampa, humid sea breezes usually come in off the Gulf of Mexico. Those breezes collide with even hotter air just inland to produce pretty much daily thunderstorms. The sea breeze and the storms have always prevented Tampa from reaching 100 degrees until now,

Those sea breeze thunderstorms did eventually develop in Tampa  yesterday, but the overall air mass was so hot, tthey were able to reach 100 degrees. We'll never know for sure, but perhaps climate change was ale to push Tampa to 100 degrees. 

NORTHERN PLAINS EXTREME STORMS

We've been talking about the so-called heat dome in the middle of the nation, causing the sweltering, sometimes near record temperatures across the Midwest and East.

Severe storms often ride along the northern edge of these heat domes, and that's happening big time.

Several batches of storms have already battered the Upper Midwest in recent days. A somewhat out of season large tornado touched down Sunday west of Watertown, South Dakota. Winds in Watertown itself gusted to 71 mph. 

The same batch of storms helped create another tornado in western Minnesota, along with a string of wind damage and flash flooding reports across much of Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and northern Iowa,

Today looks even worse. Forecasters expect a dangerous derecho to develop somewhere in South Dakota. A derecho is a long-lasting band of intense, fast-moving thunderstorms with destructive winds. These things can cover many hundred of miles. 

This one could affect much of South Dakota, a good chunk of Minnesota and northern Iowa. Derechos are hard to predict, but conditions are favorable for one of these today. A worst-case scenario - which could conceivably happen - will be like the August 10, 2020 Iowa derecho.

In that case, a derecho roared across Iowa, causing straight line winds of up to 140 mph in Cedar Rapids, the highest winds ever recorded in a derecho. It was also the most destruction thunderstorm in U.S. history, causing $11 billion in damage.

Which is why we're hoping today's event falls well short of that, 

VERMONT RAIN

My St. Albans, Vermont gardens have that ragged,
crowded late summer look now, but at least there's
still some color

Luckily, nothing like a derecho is expected here in Vermont. We're safe. 

Many of us in Vermont managed to get a decent rainfall Sunday.  Parts of southern Vermont - as expected - got drenched nicely. Bennington reported a total of 1.39 inches. 

Unexpectedly, as we talked about yesterday, far northern Vermont saw a band of heavy rain during much of the morning. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont collected an impressive 1.35 inches of rain. 

St. Johnsbury reported 1.12 inches of rain.

Central Vermont missed out somewhat. Rainfall amounted to 0.4 inches in Burlington, 0,47 inches in Montpelier, and 0.67 inches in Rutland, where an isolated late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm added to the total, 

The rain was welcome, as much of the state except the Northeast Kingdom and parts of northwest Vermont have been a little on the dry side this month, 

So far, unlike most of the state, my area around St. Albans has had a wet month. I've collected right around 6.5 inches of rain so far this month.

Very little rain is expected this week, And it's looking like starting Thursday, , we could go as much as a week without any rain. That would be the longest dry spell we've had since last September.

THE FORECAST

Dense fog enveloped much of Vermont early this morning. I'm sure that slowed the morning commute in some areas. That will have burned off most places by the time you read this. 

Today

A northwest air flow that will eventually bring us our cooler, less humid air has already started. It'll just take awhile for the truly refreshing, very dry air to reach us. 

It was super muggy this morning, but the northwest breeze should lower our humidity a bit this afternoon. It'll still be on the sweaty side, but not the worst it could be.

Still, temperatures should get well into the 80s, and maybe even flirt with 90 degrees again in a few spots, And that damn wildfire smoke will be back. The smoke probably won't be as bad as it was Saturday, but it will still diminish air quality some.

Little disturbances in the air flow will keep very low chances of showers and storms going, but I emphasize very low. There might be something up by the Canadian border tonight, but don't count on it.

Tuesday

Tuesday looks hot and somewhat humid, with just a very low chance of storms. At least 90 percent of us shouldn't see anything at all, unless something in the forecast radically changes overnight.  A few towns should get close to 90 degrees again, the rest of us will be in the 80s. 

On the bright side, it looks like the smoke might diminish somewhat tomorrow. 

Wednesday

The most meaningful cold front in the series should come through sometimes Wednesday. It's too early to get into the details, but so far, I'm not impressed by the amount of rain or thunderstorms it looks like it will produce.

I suppose a few places might get lucky and see a good downpour. And, depending on the timing of the front, there might be a strong storm or two. But this won't be the severe weather event of the year. Nothing like South Dakota's anticipated derecho,

Dry Week?

That Wednesday cold front appears as if it will usher in that long dry spell. The high pressure coming down from Canada looks like it will be massive in size and slow moving.   It might not rain for seven or more consecutive days, though long range forecasts are always iffy, as I keep reminding everyone.

It will be cool at first, with that low humidity. Since the air will be coming from Canada, that cool air might end up being - sigh - smoky again. 

The cool weather looks like it won't last as long as many meteorologists had been thinking earlier. It now looks like only next Thursday, Friday and maybe Saturday will be cooler than average, and it won't be all that much chillier than you'd expect in early August.

Warmer summer weather will start to come back, probably next Sunday and stick around for awhile. The humidity will probably also return, at least to an extent.