Hot, Dry Vermont Forecast Looks Even Worse. Some Places Might See No Rain For At Least A Week

Plants are wilting in gardens. This photo was taken
after I rescued a patch of white phlox that had seriously
wilted in the dry weather. This photo was taken
as they started to revive after I drenched them in
water for nearly an hour.  

I'm stunned by how fast my gardens have dried out.  Rainfall up here was pretty good all the way through late July. Aside from fast-drying potted plants, I didn't water anything until a little over a week ago.   

Now, I can't keep up. 

The ground moisture has evaporated under the relentless, hot August sun.  It doesn't help that despite the heat, it's not all that humid. 

Any moisture out there evaporates quickly in these conditions. And as the heat intensifies over the next few days, the humidity won't immediately increase  too much more to help preserve moisture. 

The forest fire danger continues to rise in Vermont.  I'd hate to see any forests in the Green Mountains state start to burn, but I'm sure at least a few small brush or woodlands fires have become inevitable this month. 

Our rapid march to a possible drought races on. 

DRY FORECAST

Weather radar late Friday afternoon showed a few 
scattered little showers and thunderstorms, but they
missed most spots. Radar images today through
Tuesday will show no or almost no rain
which will worsen our dry conditions. 

If you like summer heat, you're in luck. If you like cool intervals and showers, you're seriously out of luck. Quite possibly for the rest of the month at least. 

I haven't seen such a rapid summer drying since at least July through the first couple days of September, 1999. (But if you want a glimmer of hope, September, 1999 in Burlington ended up being the wettest on record, with 10.26 inches).

Once again, a very few lucky devils, mostly near hills and mountains in Vermont, the Adirondacks and in New Hampshire, received some brief thundershower downpours on Friday.  Mount Mansfield received 0.08 inches of rain, which isn't exactly a deluge. 

However, most of us endured the everlasting sunshine.  And a little wildfire smoke, that has been continuing to fade, for now.  

Prospects for any more thundershowers are poor. Sinking air with the incoming hot spell will seriously block any attempts by the atmosphere to generate showers and thunderstorms, 

The next chance of any real rain looks to be about Wednesday, but for now, that looks like it will take the form of some hit and miss showers and thunderstorms that won't give us the soaking we need. 

Long range forecasts to the end of August continue to call for above normal temperatures. Precipitation outlooks range from sort of close to normal to well below average. A new NOAA long range forecast released Friday leans us in Vermont toward mostly drier and warmer than normal conditions through September 5. 

THE HEAT

Long range NOAA forecast to September 5 continues
to lean toward the dry side in our neck of the woods

Believe it or not under our new, warmer climate changed "normal"  the first week of August fell short, coming in marginally cooler than the average based on 1990-2020 data. However, that first week was a bit warmer than 20th century averages. 

However you slice, it, the second week of August is coming in hot, The forecast for hot weather is mostly unchanged. It might have felt kind of hot Friday, with a high temperature of 87 degrees in Burlington.  

But that will end up being the "coldest" day until probably next Thursday at least.  A few towns in Vermont should reach 90 or better today. Many places will make it to the low 90s Sunday, Monday Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.  

The hottest two days will be Monday and Tuesday. There will be no record high in Burlington because it falls on the anniversary of its hottest day ever, 101 degrees, August 11, 1944.  Burlington's forecast high Monday is 94. 

Unless the forecast seriously changes,  the daily record high of 93 degrees in Burlington looks seriously threatened, as the forecast high for Tuesday is 95. 

 There's some questions as to how cool it will get behind that weak cold front that is due Wednesday.  

The consensus is: Not that cool. By the time we get to Thursday and Friday, it'll probably still be a little warmer than average on the supposed cold side of that weather system.  We also don't know for sure whether that lame cold front will limp through on Wednesday or maybe later. Who knows? It might not make it all the way through Vermont at all.  

At least we can take solace that some places are having it worse than we are.   

I mentioned the other day that Japan broke its national heat record with a reading of 106 degrees. Well, that news is now outdated. Japan got up to 107 degrees on Tuesday.

Phoenix, Arizona on Thursday reached 118 degrees, their hottest August temperature on record. (The hottest day ever in Phoenix was 122 degrees on June 26, 1990). Palm Springs on Thursday had a record high of 119.

As we get into the second half of August, we usually start to get into cooler pushes of air from Canada as autumn begins its approach. This year, those cooler spells might be delayed a bit until September.