Heat Wave Has Arrived In Vermont/Northeast. Bad Through Wednesday

The heat is expected to peak Tuesday, which
this map depicts. Those spotty red zones
include in Vermont, mean the it's hot enough to
really start impacting health systems
and industry. Orange means there is
those systems are beginning to truly
see some impacts from the heat. 

The heat wave is here, and it's going to be a long one, by Vermont standards anyway. 

It still looks like this hot spell might over-perform, given the trends already. It got up to 91 degrees Saturday in Burlington, a little warmer than the 88 that was forecast. 

That 90 degrees was the 13th time this year it's been 90 degrees or above.   Only 16 out of the past 125 years have had that many.  

We're going to pile up more 90s. Today through Tuesday, and maybe Wednesday should make it over 90 degrees. 

We won't make it to the single -year record of 26 days with 90 degree temperatures, but we'll definitely be up there in 2025

Today should be a wee bit hotter than Saturday, for most of us, with most warmer valleys topping 90 degrees. 

A decaying patch of clouds this morning ,moving into northwest Vermont might delay today's warming a smidge, possibly making today's highs near or a degree "cooler'" than yesterday in the northern Champlain Valley.  But don't count on it. 

NO HEAT ADVISORY - YET

Given that the heat has already started and is forecast to intensify, you might be surprised that there's no heat advisory or warning in Vermont. That's a change from previous heat waves we've seen this summer. 

The reason is the humidity is lower this time, compared to previous hot spells. High humidity makes it feel hotter outside than the kind of relatively drier air we have now,

 A heat advisory is issued in Vermont if the combination of heat and humidity makes the air feel like it's between 95 and 104 degrees. An excessive heat warning is issued if it will feel hotter than 104 degrees outside.  

A heat advisory might go into effect for at least parts of Vermont tomorrow and Tuesday as actual temperatures should get into the mid-90s in warmer valleys. Since this hot spell is so far turning out to be hotter than forecast, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple places  in the Champlain and lower Connecticut Valley hit the upper 90s on Monday and especially Tuesday. 

When the ground is dry, as it is now, sunshine can heat the air more effectively rather than putting all its energy into evaporation. That's why this hot spell might end up hotter than originally forecast. 

Even though there's no heat advisory, at least not yet,  in at least one way, this heat wave could be more dangerous. Even more so than the historic heat wave in June that broke records for the hottest June temperatures on record in Vermont and the rest of New England, 

That June heat wave lasted just two or three days. In this case, it already started to get quite warm Thursday, and now we'll have daily highs in the 90s probably through Wednesday. 

Nights have been a little cooler than they were in June, thanks to the lower humidity, but still kind of warm. And they'll get worse as tonight through Thursday night. 

The effects of heat waves on human health are cumulative. The longer they go on, the worse it gets for vulnerable people.  Especially if you are elderly or have health problems, you need to take it easy, and find air conditioning if you can. 

Outdoor workers should go easy (and their bosses should let them!) and provide plenty of water. Once again, this would be a good day for us to "kidnap" people without air conditioning and who are vulnerable to hot weather and take them to air conditioned places like a movie or shopping mall or museum. 

DRY TIMES

This dry heat wave continues to worsen the fire danger across Vermont, the rest of New England, and northern New York. Along with southern Canada.

It's gotten so bad up in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia that the government has banned people from the forests there. That means no fishing, camping, hiking or vehicles. By the way, forests comprise 70 percent New Brunswick so this is a big deal. 

It's not quite that dire here in Vermont, but you'll want to be extremely careful.  No unattended camp fires, please. No fireworks in the woods, no careless flicking away the cigarette out the car window.  If you do have a small backyard fire, like I plan today, have water ready, keep it away from the forest, and put it out completely when done. (I have that check list all worked out).

 Local officials have imposed burn bans in some Vermont towns, so check with your community before setting that bonfire. Better yet, postpone big burns until it rains. 

Good luck with that. The next chance of rain is Wednesday, in the form of hit and miss showers and thunderstorms with that  cold front.  Wednesday will be our only truly very humid, oppressive day of this heat wave as a little moisture pools ahead of the front to fuel the storms.  

Although some of those Wednesday storms might have locally torrential downpours, it's not the kind of rain you need to really tamp down the fire threat.

The brief, heavy rains quickly run off and the ground stays dry an inch or two below the surface. Once the sun comes back out, that top wet layer dries off within a couple days and you're back where you started from. What we need is a few to several day long, soaking rains. Those are not in the forecast. 

LONG RANGE FORECAST

Following Wednesday's cold front, it now looks like we'll have a decent push of cooler air. At least briefly. By "cooler"  I mean, temperatures at the end of the week will only be a little warmer than average with highs in the 75 to 84 degree range.   That's better than mid-90s, I suppose.

Worse, that push of air starting Thursday will be quite dry once again, intensifying our trend toward a flash drought.  The very dry air that'll arrive Thursday appears it might linger for a number of days. 

As I always say, long range forecasts are iffy, but for now, those forecasts seem to indicate only a couple weak, moisture-starved weather fronts until at least the last week of August.