Don't Be Fooled By Hurricane Erin's "Weakening" East Coast. It's Now Gaining A Little And Shoreline Still In For A Battering

Hurricane Erin of the Southeast U.S. coast this 
morning. Its classic symmetrical shape and eye are
a sign it has a chance to keep restrengthening for
awhile as it passed by North Carolina. 

As of late this morning, Hurricane Erin has stopped its slow strength decline and is starting to gain wind speed again. 

At 11 a.m, top winds were at 110 mph, which is reversal from a trend we saw Tuesday. 

Erin's top wind speed has slowly been winding down. Top winds were at 125 mph Tuesday morning, 110 mph by noon yesterday, 105 mph last evening and 100 mph early this morning .

The central air pressure of Erin, which had been rising, is now falling, another sign that it's beginning to strengthen again. 

Strong upper level winds and a gulp of dry air were disrupting Erin on Tuesday, which led to its weakening trend.

Those strong upper level winds have waned and Hurricane Erin began regaining its organization overnight and early today. 

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center think Erin will continue restrengthening today, probably achieving top winds of 120 mph off the southeastern United States coast. 

Starting tomorrow morning, upper level winds over Erin will get strong again, so the storm should start weakening again as accelerates northeastward in the open Atlantic far off the coasts of New England and Nova Scotia Thursday and Friday.  

Whether it gets stronger or not, or by how much is sort of besides the point. The storm is so large in size that it's generated a lot of big waves that have already started crashing into the U.S. East Coast.  Dangerous ocean waves are extending 1,000 or so miles from Hurricane Erin's center. 

U,S, COASTLINE BATTERING

Even though Erin is staying far offshore tropical storm force winds - 39 mph or more - extend 265 miles from the hurricane's center. That means places like the Outer Banks of North Carolina and  probably Cape Cod and the islands in Massachusetts will have those winds, even though the storm will stay far offshore. 

A dozen East Coast states have some sort of advisory or warning regarding Hurricane Erin, Tropical storm and coastal flood warnings are in effect for the shores of  North Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.  

The main United States focus is on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, where water started washing over Route 12 at high tide Tuesday - far in advance of Hurricane Erin. Route 12 is basically the only way on or off the Outer Banks.  The overwash, storm surge flooding and huge waves on the Outer Banks gets worse with every high tide cycle as Erin approaches, and will peak tomorrow.

Once Route 12 is blocked, it could take days to clear enough sand and do enough repairs to make the road passable, 

Charleston, South Carolina is another trouble spot, which might be surprising since Hurricane Erin will miss that city by such a wide margin.  But due to sea level rise due to climate change, the Charleston area now floods frequently in storms.

High tide in Charleston today is forecast to bring moderate, almost borderline major coastal flooding. 

Further north above the Outer Banks, pretty substantial coastal flooding is expected in resort towns like Virginia Beach, Virginia, Ocean City, Maryland, Bethany and Rohoboth beaches in Delaware and the Jersey Shore.

In all these areas, coastal roads will become impassable and officials are worried about damage to vulnerable structures. To nobody's surprise, beaches are closed to swimmers. Even before Erin, the Jersey Shore has endured several incidents. Just last week, one person died and six others were rescued amid rip tides in Seaside Heights, New Jersey.

In Massachusetts,  Nantucket officials said all beaches on the island's south shore are now closed because of dangerous surf and rip currents caused by Hurricane Erin. Locals told reporters Tuesday the water was already too rough to safely swim in, 

Rough seas and some coastal problems are likely in Atlantic Canada late this week and the weekend. By Monday or Tuesday, Erin will be in the North Atlantic and transition to a non-tropical system that could cause problems in Ireland by Tuesday. 

 OTHER STORMS

The National Hurricane Center is watching two other areas in the Atlantic Ocean that could develop into tropical storms. 

One disturbance is roughly following Erin's path and could develop into a tropical depression or storm north of the northern Leeward Islands.  Early indications are this storm, if it develops, will curve northward in the Atlantic and miss the United States by a wide margin. 

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At the moment at least, if this thing develops into a tropical storm, it could be short-lived as strong upper level winds wreck it.

But even after those winds break it apart, this disturbance could eventually redevelop closer to the Caribbean in a week or two