Tropical Storm Erin Forms, Expected To Be Big Hurricane, But Where Will It Go?

Tropical Storm Erin in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
doesn't look like much in satellite photos just yet,
but forecasters expect it to grow into a pretty 
powerful hurricane. No word yet on whether it 
would eventually threaten the United States.

 Tropical Storm Erin formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean today. This one will be the first biggie of the Atlantic hurricane season.  

But what Erin does and where it goes is still a big question. 

Since it was just forming, Erin is - for now - pretty week - with top winds of 45 mph.  Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center said they think Erin will at first struggle against dry air and ocean water temperatures only barely warm enough to maintain a tropical system.

But as Erin moves westward, it'll encounter more humid air and ocean water that is much warmer.

 The water temperature isn't at record high levels as they were in 2023 and 2024.  But that temperature is well above normal and can easily support a strong hurricane,

The early guess is by Saturday morning, a rather powerful Hurricane Erin might be somewhere north of the Leeward Islands.

But then where will it go?

Many, but not all of the computer models are kind of encouraging. They turn Erin northward while it's well north of Puerto Rico and send it off into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far off the U.S. East Coast. 

The current track forecast for Erin, It's depicted as a 
major hurricane well northeast of Puerto Rico on
Saturday. It might turn north after that, but 
meteorologists are still unsure. 

But not all models do that. Some bring Erin to near Florida. And remember, it'll be a week or more before Erin will have any opportunity to approach the U.S.   So many things can change in that time frame that could conceivably take Erin anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico, to anywhere along the U.S. or Canadian east coasts, or, as I mentioned harmlessly out to sea.

Obviously we're rooting for the harmlessly out to sea option. 

It's not worth panicking over Erin because any United States impacts it might have are far, far away. There's lots of time to watch this thing. 

As the National Hurricane Center notes, this is only the beginning of peak hurricane season. 

Even if Erin ultimately misses the U.S., it's a great excuse to prepare for the season, and make sure you have everything you need and plans in place in case a hurricane threatens later this summer or fall. 

Erin is brand new and it has already caused trouble. Even before it was officially a tropical storm, it set off serious flooding in the Cabo Verde islands, where six people were reportedly killed.  Homes, businesses and vehicles on the islands sustained serious damage. 

The Cabo Verde islands are roughly 400 miles west of the westernmost point in the continent of Africa.