Is A Flash Drought Looming In Vermont/New England?

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor suddenly has
much of Vermont designated as "abnormally dry"
shown in areas shaded in yellow.
Abnormally dry can be a precursor to drought.

 Back in late May and early June, when everything was ultra soggy after weeks of rain, who among you thought that by early August we'd be on the verge of a drought.  

Well, here we are. The faucets from the sky have mostly shut off. Given the weather forecast, we're now at risk for what is known as a flash drought.

HOW FLASH DROUGHTS WORK

A flash drought is akin to a flash flood, although it obviously has the opposite effect.

As we know, a flash flood comes at you in a matter of minutes, turning placid brooks into raging torrents instantaneously. 

A flash drought isn't nearly that fast, but it's a lot quicker than a "traditional" drought, which usually takes months to build into something problematic. A flash drought develops within weeks.  

The Northeast had a flash drought late last summer and fall, which culminated in numerous forest fires, especially in New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.

We were doing fine with ground water and such most of this year, especially given our wet spring and early summer. 

But during July, the rains began to falter. Now that we're into August, most of us are dry, aside from local downpours that have continued on and off, giving a very few of us a welcome, wet break. 

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, shows abnormal dryness popping up in several areas around New England and northern New York. 

 Under the Drought Monitor's terminology, "abnormally dry" doesn't mean you're in a drought, but if it doesn't rain soon, you will be.  

Last week, no area of Vermont was regarded as "abnormally dry." This week 72 percent of the state wins that designation. Only most of the Champlain Valley and parts of southern Vermont are still OK.

MOSTLY DRY, HOT FORECAST

If there is a Vermont drought developing, the next few days will certainly encourage it. 

Today will be almost a carbon copy of yesterday. Hazy, very warm, sunshine. Scattered, slow moving thunderstorms will pop up, fade, and then redevelop only to fade again.

At least 70 percent of us, if  not more, will see no rain today, or just a trifling sprinkle. A few towns could up to a quick half inch or more of rain. Or I should say, parts of some towns. The storms are so small that the north side of a particular community could get drenched while the south side stays dusty. 

The thunderstorms the formed yesterday acted like that. At least part of Middlebury got drenched by a local late afternoon storm while communities just to the north and south heard a few distant rumbles of thunder, then continued to water their wilting gardens. . 

A thunderstorm that appeared to be briefly severe blew up near Richmond/Jonesville shortly before 6 p.m. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington warned of 60 mph winds and large hail. Meanwhile, nearby Williston got no rain, 

Typical of our current weather pattern, the intense looking storm quickly faded to nothing without moving from its original position, . 

Today will be the "coolest" day for the next week. Highs will get well into the 80s. 

Weekend/Next Week

The potential flash drought will continue to build. It will stay hot and kind of humid Saturday through probably Tuesday, and pretty much rain-free. After that, it will probably stay very warm to hot, with only scattered rains. 

Here in Vermont, it's an official heat wave if you get three days in a row that reach 90 degrees or more. We should easily do that.  Some place could see four, five, or even six consecutive 90 degree days coming up.    

When it's dry, temperatures often get a little warmer than forecast.  When the ground is wet, some of the sun's energy goes into evaporation instead of heating the atmosphere. Drier conditions encourage the sun to heat the air more.

Temperatures have already started over-performing and we're just getting started. The forecast high yesterday in Burlington was 83 and it got to 87.  So, there's a chance the the forecast highs over the next few days might be even warmer than you're seeing here. 

The forecast high in Burlington today is 87, which makes sense, since we're doing a rinse and repeat of yesterday. The prediction for Saturday is 88 degrees in Burlington. But it could hit 90, I think, since there will be fewer clouds, and the atmosphere will have warmed some.

Then, the National Weather Service has highs Sunday through next Thursday as follows:  91,94,94,90,89.

As you can see, there's a chance  of six consecutive days of 90 or more running Saturday through Thursday. If it does, it will be only the eighth time in the past 130 years or so there were that many consecutive hot days in Burlington. 

 Three of the previous seven such streaks have occurred just since 2018, demonstrating how climate change has made it easier for big hot spells to invade. 

The offshore high pressure is so strong it will suppress the updrafts needed to form the usual summertime afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Very few if any will get going this weekend and early next week. 

A cold front I previously mentioned possibly arriving later next Tuesday is probably going to be a no-show. Or if it does get here, it will be later, probably toward Wednesday or Thursday, and it will be far from impressive.

It could create some scattered thunderstorms, and drop temperatures slightly. All that will hit roughly a week from now, so the forecast is iffy and will probably change. But the bottom line is, we're in for some hot times for quite awhile