Rutland County Hit By Big Storm Friday. All Of Vermont Faces Hot, Steamy Weather In Upcoming Days

The severe thunderstorm in Rutland County yesterday
with a wild shelf cloud. Note the blue tint in the clouds.
That suggests there's quite a bit of hail up there. Photo
was taken by Mary Jean Wasik Obtained via Facebook

 Well, we got through our latest severe weather threat pretty much unscathed. Most of us anyway. Quite a few people in Rutland County would beg to differ. 

As severe weather probabilities were updated midday Friday, the word, "tornado" somehow came back into the vernacular. They said there was a very low, but not zero chance of a tornado in eastern Vermont or New Hampshire in the very worst storms. 

Turns out there was only one thunderstorm of note, and it was a doozy. It developed near Ticonderoga, New York around 2:30 and headed southeast. through northern an eastern Rutland County. 

Dime sized hail fell in Hubbarton and Hortonia, Vermont. It then moved on to knock down numerous trees in Proctor and in the north and east sides of Rutland. 

I don't see any evidence the damage was caused by a tornado. Looks like straight line winds caused all the Rutland Couty trouble. 

The storm appeared to weaken somewhat crossing the Green Mountains because I don't have damage reports there. But the storm blossomed again as it crossed the Connecticut River into Cornish, New Hampshire, where hail was big enough to dent cars. 

The storm continue on through southern New Hampshire as a rotating supercell, spewing damaging wins and hail along its path.

Parts of Vermont that were not hit be severe storms still had generous rainfall. It was hit and miss, or course, bur Burlington had a storm total of 0.68 inches. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected right around an inch of rain from Thursday night through late Friday afternoon. 

The rain is mostly over, for now, and summer is really going to make a stand. The details: 

TODAY

There were areas of low clouds and fog around early this morning around Vermont,  but that should mostly clear out to reveal a nice, typical Vermont summer day. Highs will get into the 

You'll see some building, towering clouds here and there over the mountains, and some of those will develop into showers and garden variety thunderstorms. They'll pretty much stick to the mountains and do no harm. From the valleys especially it will be a great cloud watching day as showers and storm develop, then fade as new ones form. 

A few showers  could try to wander off into the valleys during the afternoon and evening, but they'll probably weaken as they do so. 

While you're watching the clouds, or doing anything else outside, it should get up to near 80 degrees for most of us. Humidity will be moderate. 

SUNDAY: 

A copy of today, except it will be a couple degrees warmer and there will probably be few storms and showers over the mountains. 

MONDAY: 

The heat and humidity really start to build. It should still be fairly reasonably with highs in the low to mid 80s. Maybe a spot 87 or 88 in the warmest valleys. 

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

The heat is on. Hot, humid, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the warmest valleys Tuesday through Friday. 

It's hard to say exactly how hot it will get, as clouds and storms might interfere with the hottest temperatures. For now, the National Weather Service is going with a high of 91 degrees in Burlington Tuesday, followed by 95 Wednesday and Thursday. 

Granted, Burlington is warmer than many other parts of Vermont. But regardless of what happens, with location and afternoon showers and storms,  it will be uncomfortable. 

 As I mentioned in yesterday's post, we will be on the northeast corner of a big heat dome that will be setting up over the eastern US. "Ridge runner" patches of thunderstorms could go over the top of the heat dome in southern Canada and then head southeastward over us at any time during this upcoming hot week. The first chance of this is Tuesday night. 

With all the heat and humidity in place, there's a chance that storms could become severe or lead to local flash flooding. It's way too early to determine for sure whether this will happen, and if so, where. But on top of taking care of yourself in the heat, you might have to keep an ear out for severe storm warnings, too.

 

Some Vermont Flash Flooding Reported; Hot, Humid Weather Today, Tomorrow With Storm Threats

Flash flood damage in Walcott. Photo by Ashelyn 
Burroughs via Facebook 

The humidity is here and we're already wilting. And getting pretty wet in the process. We have two more days to go in this oppressive spell here in Vermont. Followed by a warm weekend and several chances of thunderstorms. Some might be severe tomorrow.

So let's get into it. 

First of all, I mentioned the other day we've entered flash flood season. Vermont had its first instance of trouble yesterday amid the slow moving storms 

They were  hit and miss, and most of us were fine. But the National Weather Service in South Burlington had to issue a flash flood warning for a section of north central Vermont for heavy rains. 

Sure enough, flood damage was reported around Wolcott and Hardwick. Part of East Hill Road in Hardwick had to close for flood damage. So did a section of Bunker Hill Road in Hardwick. 

I was also concerned last night about a nearly stalled area of heavy rain along the International border near and east or Newport, but so far, I haven't heard of any trouble there. 

Now let's look at what's hitting us next:

TODAY

We started off nasty enough with gray skies, temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s and dew points at similar levels.  

We'll get well into the 80s today as that humidity continues. A few places, especially in southeast Vermont could easily top 90 degrees.  A heat advisory for "real feel" temperatures in the mid-90s is in effect in the lower Connecticut River Valley from roughly White River Junction south. 

It'll feel almost as bad in the rest of Vermont. Usually the Champlain Valley is another hot spot, but clouds and showers might keep temperatures just under 90 degrees. We'll see.

Speaking of those showers and thunderstorms, they'll roam the state again today. I'm getting somewhat mixed messages from various sources and models as to how widespread they'll be. One model, the HRRR, was fairly blasé, firing up some southern Vermont storms and maybe an isolated one in central Vermont. 

Other models get up to 60 percent of us wet by late afternoon or evening via showers and storms. In any event, they won't be as widespread as yesterday. The flash flood threat is also very low, though there could be some isolated trouble again because some storms will produce torrential rains. 

FRIDAY

We have an exciting weather day ahead with oppressive heat and the risk of strong storms 

The atmosphere over Vermont will reach its hottest point of this stretch of misery on Friday. After a stuffy overnight, temperatures will soar to 90 degrees or more in many places, espeicalluy the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River valleys, where heat advisories are in effect again. The western parts of Rutland and Bennington counties are included in tomorrow's heat advisory. 

The National Weather Service is mulling whether to expand tomorrow's heat advisories, but will wait for more data before deciding whether to pull the trigger. 

It will be another very humid day. Definitely take it easy out there and don't work too hard. Three days of sticky, ugly weather accumulates the heat stress.  Plus, this is the first big hot, humid spell of the season, so we're not quite used to it yet. 

While you're suffering from the heat, you're also going to need access to weather warnings, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. 

It looks like conditions will be a little better to form severe storms than we thought yesterday. The instability will be super high, so that will be a factor. An approaching cold front will start to cool the upper atmosphere and increase winds aloft. 

All those are ingredients for severe storms. The winds aloft won't be super strong, which might be limiting factor. But at this point, at least a few severe storms with strong winds are a decent bet. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a level 2 out of five alert level fort severe storms. 

WARM WEEKEND

This first cold front won't have much cold air behind it. Saturday and Sunday will feature highs in the 80s. It'll be somewhat less humid, though. Another cold front will come in on Sunday with more showers and storms. Depending on the timing of the front, we could see another risk of severe storms .

Decidedly cooler weather comes in for the first part of next week with highs in the near-normal 70s.  

 

August In Vermont Was Super Dry (Most Places) And Otherwise Kind Of Weather Weird

Very low water levels in the Missisquoi River in 
Enosburgh Falls due to what in many parts of
Vermont were a record or near record dry August. 

You're not going to be the least bit surprised at the following fact now that August is over.

That month was exceptionally, in some cases record dry in Vermont. Montpelier only managed 0.62 inches of rain in August. 

In most Augusts, that amount would fall in a single, hour-long thunderstorm. Normal rainfall for August is 3.81.   

Rutland was even worse, with a preliminary total of just 0.48 inches, against a normal of nearly four inches.s St. Johnsbury only had a bit under an inch of rain.

There were some slight exceptions to the August extreme dryness rule. Burlington had 1.66 inches of rain, which is below normal by 1.88 inches, thanks to a fairly wet final week of the month. This ends up being Burlington's 15th driest August. 

A more pronounced isolated wet spot was Woodstock, which received at least 2.62 inches of rain in August, thanks to well-placed, localized, heavy thunderstorms on August 7 and 14.

I say at least 2.62 inches because data is missing from Woodstock on August 25, and it might have rained that day. Which leads to this editor's note: 

I noticed this morning there were more gaps and delays than usual in August climate information on the National Weather Service page.  I'm unsure whether that's because of cutbacks in staffing at the National Weather Service due to those odious DOGE cuts from the Trump administration, or because today is a holiday or it was just a bad month. 

In the cases of the missing data, I was either able to find the information elsewhere to fill in the gaps, or I just had to give up on highlighting information or drawing conclusions. 

Anyway, going on with Vermont's August weather:

TEMPERATURES

Average temperatures for August, 2025 in Vermont were a little below what is now considered "normal."   Of course, I have to remind you again this is the "new normal." based on the average temperatures from 1990 to 2020. 

This "new normal" is balmier than the 20th century average. So a slightly cooler than average August nowadays would have been a normal or even slightly warmer than normal August had it happened a half century ago.

In fact, despite this August being allegedly "cool" it was still a tie for 30th warmest August out of the past 126 years in Burlington. 

Looking more closely at August temperatures, we find an oddity: Average high temperatures were above normal, but overnight lows were even further below this new normal. 

It's what you'd expect in a dry month. The dry ground allows the daytime sun to really heat the atmosphere instead of focusing on evaporation, so the daytimes are hotter. Nighttimes are cooler during dry spells. If the ground had been wet, that added humidity would have kept temperatures from falling as much as they did. 

This warm highs/chiller lows pattern we saw this August bucks a climate change trend.  Nights have generally been getting warmer faster than daytimes, so this past month was an exception. 

That high temperatures were so warm in August were boosted by a weird heat wave on August 9-12.  Temperatures reached as high as 98 degrees in Burlington on August 12. The heat was accompanied by unusually dry air. 

The weird heat wave is what really started our flash drought in August. 

SUMMER 

Meteorological summer runs from June 1 through August 31, so for climatologists, summer ended last night at midnight. 

Despite the allegedly "cool" August that really was not chilly, Burlington had the seventh warmest summer on record. 

Due to ties, there are actually 14 summers in Burlington's top ten list of warmest summers on record. With this summer added, nine of the top 14 hottest summers have occurred since 2005, and five of them have occurred since 2020.  

So yes, most summers nowadays are way different from the way they were decades ago. 

AUTUMN OUTLOOK

Meteorological autumn runs from September 1 through November 30.  NOAA is saying that above normal temperatures will continue though this new season. In fact, the best chances of higher than average temperatures during the fall in the United States would be in the Southwest and New England. 

Seasonal forecasts aren't alway correct, but NOAA did say last spring that our just ended summer would be very warm, and they were absolutely right. 

The autumn seasonal outlook doesn't help much with our precipitation, which we really need. NOAA just gives us equal chances of above or below normal rainfall between now and the end of November. 

In the short term, the first half of September does look mostly cooler than average, though that doesn't mean the overall warm forecast is wrong. Two weeks out of a season don't make much of a difference.e 

Today through Thursday, and maybe Friday will feature near to slightly above normal temperatures, but it should cool down for at least a few days after that. 

After that, who knows what will happen the rest of the autumn. Watch this space.  

The 2025 Trend Continues: July Was World's 3rd Warmest

Once again in July, 2025, it was hard to find places
that were cooler than the longtime 20th century
average. Parts of Antarctica and few other
small isolated places were cool, that's it. 

 July, 2025 followed a familiar climate trend we've seen so far this year: It was the third warmest on record, just behind the boffo hot summers of 2023 and 2024 across the world. 

This according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. 

Julys figures are in line with recent months, most of which were the third warmest on record. 

The data is yet another piece added to the mountain of evidence that climate change has transformed the world and might be accelerating. 

By the way, all ten of the world's hottest Julys have happened since 2016. It was the 49th consecutive July with above average temperature. It shows the climate has been changing mostly due to human influence for at least a half century. 

In July, 2025, the hottest spots relative to average included northwestern Europe, most of China along with Japan and the Koreas; northern Africa, most of the northern Pacific Ocean, the Caribbean and much of eastern Nort America. 

As we've consistently seen in recent years, cool spots were hard to find in July, 2025 but they were there. This time, we could find chilly areas relative to the long term average in parts of Antarctica, western Australia, parts of  India, central South America, a relatively small area in central North America straddling the U.S. Canadian border and a piece of the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and east of Labrador. 

This year through July is still ranking as the second hottest on record, behind last year. NOAA gives this year a 99 percent chance of being among the top five warmest on record, but only a 1 percent chance of being the absolute warmest.  The record for world's hottest year in 2024 looks safe. For now. 

UNITED STATES

Most of the United States heat in July was 
concentrated in the eastern third of the nation. 

The Lower 48 of the United States had its 19th hottest out of the past 131 Julys in the National Centers for Environmental Information data base.  

Two states - West Virginia and Virginia - had their hottest July on record this year. Nineteen other states, including Vermont had one of their top ten hottest Julys.  

The interesting thing was the warmth was driven largely by very warm overnight temperatures. 

The nation had its fifth warmest average July low temperatures. Twelve states had the warmest July daily low temperatures on record.  The United States had its 33 wettest July out of the past 131 years. 

Nights have generally been warming faster than daytimes. Increased humidity  helps hold nighttime temperatures up. Since a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, this all makes sense. 

The Plains states and California were relatively cool, but not among the coolest on record. For instance, North Dakota had their 58th coldest and Texas had their 60th chilliest July.  In other words, something akin to what the mid-20th was like, before climate change really took hold. 

The United States had its 33rd wettest year. But rainfall really varied from place to place. New England was dry, a hint of a drought that began hitting the region in earnest this month. New Hampshire had its 7th driest July, and in Maine it was 8th driest. (Vermont was 27th driest).

Elsewhere, Utah had its second driest July and Alabama had its 6th driest.

Some places, by contrast, were pretty wet. Amid its hottest July, Virginia also had its fifth wettest July, so the humidity must have been miserable. The Midwest was generally wet, with Iowa logging its second soggiest July of the past 131 years. 

To confirm that this year has been the summer of flash floods, the National Weather Service issued a total of 1,434 flash flood warnings this July, the second highest July total in 40 years. There were 17 flash flood emergencies issues, along with more than 2,000 preliminary flood related storm reports.  

Is A Flash Drought Looming In Vermont/New England?

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor suddenly has
much of Vermont designated as "abnormally dry"
shown in areas shaded in yellow.
Abnormally dry can be a precursor to drought.

 Back in late May and early June, when everything was ultra soggy after weeks of rain, who among you thought that by early August we'd be on the verge of a drought.  

Well, here we are. The faucets from the sky have mostly shut off. Given the weather forecast, we're now at risk for what is known as a flash drought.

HOW FLASH DROUGHTS WORK

A flash drought is akin to a flash flood, although it obviously has the opposite effect.

As we know, a flash flood comes at you in a matter of minutes, turning placid brooks into raging torrents instantaneously. 

A flash drought isn't nearly that fast, but it's a lot quicker than a "traditional" drought, which usually takes months to build into something problematic. A flash drought develops within weeks.  

The Northeast had a flash drought late last summer and fall, which culminated in numerous forest fires, especially in New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.

We were doing fine with ground water and such most of this year, especially given our wet spring and early summer. 

But during July, the rains began to falter. Now that we're into August, most of us are dry, aside from local downpours that have continued on and off, giving a very few of us a welcome, wet break. 

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, shows abnormal dryness popping up in several areas around New England and northern New York. 

 Under the Drought Monitor's terminology, "abnormally dry" doesn't mean you're in a drought, but if it doesn't rain soon, you will be.  

Last week, no area of Vermont was regarded as "abnormally dry." This week 72 percent of the state wins that designation. Only most of the Champlain Valley and parts of southern Vermont are still OK.

MOSTLY DRY, HOT FORECAST

If there is a Vermont drought developing, the next few days will certainly encourage it. 

Today will be almost a carbon copy of yesterday. Hazy, very warm, sunshine. Scattered, slow moving thunderstorms will pop up, fade, and then redevelop only to fade again.

At least 70 percent of us, if  not more, will see no rain today, or just a trifling sprinkle. A few towns could up to a quick half inch or more of rain. Or I should say, parts of some towns. The storms are so small that the north side of a particular community could get drenched while the south side stays dusty. 

The thunderstorms the formed yesterday acted like that. At least part of Middlebury got drenched by a local late afternoon storm while communities just to the north and south heard a few distant rumbles of thunder, then continued to water their wilting gardens. . 

A thunderstorm that appeared to be briefly severe blew up near Richmond/Jonesville shortly before 6 p.m. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington warned of 60 mph winds and large hail. Meanwhile, nearby Williston got no rain, 

Typical of our current weather pattern, the intense looking storm quickly faded to nothing without moving from its original position, . 

Today will be the "coolest" day for the next week. Highs will get well into the 80s. 

Weekend/Next Week

The potential flash drought will continue to build. It will stay hot and kind of humid Saturday through probably Tuesday, and pretty much rain-free. After that, it will probably stay very warm to hot, with only scattered rains. 

Here in Vermont, it's an official heat wave if you get three days in a row that reach 90 degrees or more. We should easily do that.  Some place could see four, five, or even six consecutive 90 degree days coming up.    

When it's dry, temperatures often get a little warmer than forecast.  When the ground is wet, some of the sun's energy goes into evaporation instead of heating the atmosphere. Drier conditions encourage the sun to heat the air more.

Temperatures have already started over-performing and we're just getting started. The forecast high yesterday in Burlington was 83 and it got to 87.  So, there's a chance the the forecast highs over the next few days might be even warmer than you're seeing here. 

The forecast high in Burlington today is 87, which makes sense, since we're doing a rinse and repeat of yesterday. The prediction for Saturday is 88 degrees in Burlington. But it could hit 90, I think, since there will be fewer clouds, and the atmosphere will have warmed some.

Then, the National Weather Service has highs Sunday through next Thursday as follows:  91,94,94,90,89.

As you can see, there's a chance  of six consecutive days of 90 or more running Saturday through Thursday. If it does, it will be only the eighth time in the past 130 years or so there were that many consecutive hot days in Burlington. 

 Three of the previous seven such streaks have occurred just since 2018, demonstrating how climate change has made it easier for big hot spells to invade. 

The offshore high pressure is so strong it will suppress the updrafts needed to form the usual summertime afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Very few if any will get going this weekend and early next week. 

A cold front I previously mentioned possibly arriving later next Tuesday is probably going to be a no-show. Or if it does get here, it will be later, probably toward Wednesday or Thursday, and it will be far from impressive.

It could create some scattered thunderstorms, and drop temperatures slightly. All that will hit roughly a week from now, so the forecast is iffy and will probably change. But the bottom line is, we're in for some hot times for quite awhile 

Stats Confirm: This July Is Yet Another Hot One, Third One In A Row

A severe thunderstorm over Lamoille County on 
July 10, as seen from a distance from Williston
Vermont. Other than that date, severe 
weather was pretty infrequent in our hot,
humid Vermont July, 2025

 I'm sure you felt and melted in Vermont's tropical July, 2025, and I have the receipts to prove it.

This July was another summer month that didn't really feel like Vermont.   

In Burlington, the mean temperature was 74.6, tying with 1975 and 1995 as the sixth warmest on record. 

This was the third July in a row that was among the top ten warmest on record.  Six of the top 10 warmest Julys have happened since 2018. 

Montpelier had its fifth warmest July on record. 

Unlike June, there was never any super extreme heat. No record highs. The heat was fairly persistent, but not as relentless as last year. We managed to see a substantial break in the tropical conditions on July 20-23 and the 31st. 

Still,  Burlington had eight days that got to 90 degrees or more. Only ten other Julys in the past 125 years had as many or more such days. 

It's telling how much climate change has altered our perception of a "normal" summer.    Under the "new normal" which is the average of temperatures between 1990 and 2020,  July in Burlington was a mere 2.2 degrees above this warmer "average".

Average temperature were much lower in most of the 20th century, of course. In July, 1975. the month Burlington just  tied with for sixth warmest, was at the time more than five degrees warmer than average. 

Rainfall

July in Vermont was dry, except in the Northeast Kingdom, parts of which had a destructive flash flood on July 10.  The month was also a little on the wet side in the extreme northwest. Burlington was close to normal, while my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected a pretty soggy 6.5 inches of July rain. 

Extreme southwest Vermont was also a little on the wet side, but overall, most of the state was dry. A lot of places missed out on many of the typical midsummer shower and thunderstorms.

So far, drought hasn't developed, thanks to the wet spring and early summer.   Given the current forecast, though, I think some parts of Vermont will soon be declared "abnormally dry" though not in drought unless the rain falters for weeks on end. 

St. Johnsbury, having endured by far its wettest month on record last July with an incredible 17 inches of rain, was one of the driest spots in Vermont this year. They only had about 2.4 inches of rain, or about half the usual installment for July. Rutland came up about two inches short for July rainfall 

St Johnsbury is just south of the area hit be the July 10 flash floods in the Northeast Kingdom, which really was the only real extreme weather event of the month, other than the heat and humidity. The July 10 event severely damaged at least a couple homes, and washed away sections of road in Sutton, West Burke and East Haven. 

Thick wildfire smoke from Canada obscures the view for
these fishing enthusiasts at St. Albans Bay,
Vermont on July 26

That same day, severe thunderstorms in Addison County caused some flooding, and tore part of the roof off of Middlebury Union High School.  

Other than that, there were only widely scattered instances of severe thunderstorm damage in Vermont during July, which is usually the peak of what passes for the Green Mountain States severe storm season. 

The other hazard we dealt with was wildfire smoke from Canada. That's been happening most summers lately, in part another negative consequence of climate change. 

 Unlike in the upper Midwest, the smoke in Vermont usually wasn't that bad this July, 

Except on July 26, when the air quality in Vermont was some of the worst ever seen. 

LOOKING AHEAD

In June, NOAA released its outlook for July, indicating it would be a hot month around here. They were right. That forecast also leaned hesitantly toward July being a wee bit wetter than normal.  I give that a win, too, since a few places in Vermont had some extra precipitation, while others were dry.  

As we know, August is opening with cool weather. That won't last. Forecasts have us shifting to warmer than normal temperatures by Sunday afternoon, 

We lose about an hour and a half of daylight, so normal temperatures will start to cool, especially during the second half of the month.  That's only if we have some semblance of a typical pattern.

We do know that after we get through today and tomorrow, odds lean really heavily toward above normal temperatures through mid-month, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Precipitation chances during the first half of the month in this forecast seem to be near normal, maybe ever so slightly leaning toward heavier than normal toward mid month. 

Beyond mid month, forecasts get even more tenuous. The deeper into the future you go, the higher the odds forecasts will be off. Still, NOAA's three to four week outlook released today still leans pretty strongly toward above normal temperatures here. Rainfall is a tossup between above or below normal, so take your guess. 

Thursday Vermont Weather Update: Hot Today, Changeable Thereafter

A hazy start to the day, as seen in South Burlington
around 7:15 a.m looking toward the Adirondacks,
promises a hot humid day. 

The cool Vermont weather is over, for now, 

The humidity still wasn't that bad overnight, and temperatures were still reasonable, at least outside the Champlain Valley, where it never go below 70 degrees last night. 

Now, as the morning goes on, the humidity is creeping up, and the temperature is racing upward on steady south winds.   

Some mixing in the atmosphere due to those winds might make the humidity level off to kinda uncomfortable but not ridiculous levels this afternoon.  

Still with the humidity up and temperatures reaching 90 or more, a heat advisory has been issued for the Champlain Valley, because there, the heat index will make it feel like it's in the mid-90s The Hudson Valley of New York is also under a head advisory. Up in Quebec. a heat warning is up for Montreal and large areas surrounding the city.  

Actual temperatures will be close to that in the valley. Burlington's actual high temperature today is now forecast to be around 94 degrees. Plenty of other places in Vermont will be at or above 90.  Temperatures might come close to record highs in some places.  Montpelier in particular looks like they might break their record high, as the current record is only 89 degrees. 

Tonight, that humidity will really pool over and near Vermont ahead of a cold front.  If we're lucky, there might be a light show for people in far northern parts of the Green Mountain State. Depending on lingering instability there might be a decent amount of heat lighting visible looking up toward Quebec.

It's iffy, but maybe. If there are any Quebec storms tonight, they should stay north of the border until we get close to dawn. 

That potential lightning is our preview for Friday. 

FRIDAY

It looks like our cold front will come through near or before noon in the north, and in the early to mid afternoon north, which trims back our chances of severe storms.

The front will come through too early in the day for severe storms north, so the worst you can expect up there is some morning downpours and maybe some rumbles of thunder.

There could be some isolated strong, damaging wind gusts with storms Friday in southern and eastern Vermont, but it doesn't look like it will be a widespread problem. The rest of southern and eastern New England might also have a few strong to severe storms 

There's not going to be a well defined cold front, so shower and even thunderstorm chances could last into the afternoon even in the north. But the afternoon in the north will be nicer than the morning. The opposite will be true south. Except the heat and humidity south will feel kinda nasty. 

WEEKEND

It's turning out we've got a bit of a rinse and repeat of last weekend, with gorgeous weather Saturday and Sunday, not so nice. 

Saturday looks sunny and warm, with moderate humidity. It should be a wonderful day for any kind of outdoor summer activity. 

Very much like this time last week, the forecast for Sunday has now shifted. 

At least as it stands now, what was once expected to be a minor disturbance causing the risk of widely scattered showers, mostly south, now looks a little more substantial statewide.  

There's still some debate as to whether Sunday's rain will be hit and miss and mostly light except for a few local downpours, or pretty widespread and on the heavier side. 

 Much like last Sunday, the cause will be a hard to forecast weak disturbance from the west interacting with a cold front to set off rte showers and storms,

However, unless something in the forecast changes substantially, it looks like we'll once again avoid the any real flash flooding, the kind that has causes so many problems in the U.S this summer.  

Unlike last Sunday, the cold front, such as it is, will be so weak that Monday will actually be warmer than Sunday. It fact, Monday at this point looks borderline hot. It won't be until later Tuesday or Wednesday before the big pattern change arrives to give us another big autumnal cool down. 

We Did It AGAIN: 2024 Hottest Year On Record In Vermont

A thunderhead erupts in hot, humid weather in June
in St. Albans Bay. As measured in Burlington, 2024 was
easily the hottest year on record, breaking the
mark set just last year, in 2023.

Yes, Vermont had its hottest year on record in 2024. And it wasn't even close. 

On this date last year, I wrote a post about 2023 being the hottest year on record and could not believe we'd had four years in a row that were among Burlington's top 10 warmest.

Now in 2024, we've done it again, the fifth year in a row we scored in the top 10 list of warmest years. 

This year also knocked 1953 and 1898 out the Number 10 spot of warmest years in Burlington. That means all of the top 10 warmest years have happened since 1998, and nine of the top 10 have hit since 2010.  

That is simply bonkers for a period of record that goes back to the 1880s.  Climate change is really being felt in Vermont. 

Even more bonkers is the margin by which we broke 2023's mark for hottest year.  The average temperature in Burlington in 2024 was 50.9 degrees. That's 0.9 degrees - almost a full degree hotter than 2023.

That might not sound like that big a record breaker but a the hottest year on record by nearly a degree is insane if you consider we're averaging out 366 days (2024 was a leap year).

Since 2024 was the hottest year on record by such a large margin in Burlington, I'm going to go out on a limb and say you probably won't see a year as hot as the recently ended one for quite awhile, several years at least.

Then again, as I demonstrated a year ago, I can be proven wrong. We'll see. With climate change running on, though, it's inevitable we will have a year in Vermont even hotter than 2024. Unless you're quite elderly, you'll probably see a year or two or more toastier than the last one. 

It looks like St. Johnsbury also had its warmest year on record with a mean temperature of 49.1 degrees.   

That said, I have a feeling 2025 will break the streak and not become one of our top ten hottest years on record. Even with climate change, you need to have a cooler year eventually.  Today's mild weather notwithstanding, it looks like  January is going to be quite chilly, which would help drag down 2025's overall average temperature. 

After all, 2024 brought us no substantially cooler than normal months, and even many of the warmer years have at least one chilly month. Incredibly, eight months in 2024 in Burlington were among the top ten warmest. 

Burlington wasn't alone in seeing 2024 as the hottest. We'll soon have stats that show many cities in the United States just had their warmest year on record.  The United States  will probably see its hottest year on record as 2024. Plus, the world as a whole will see 2024 as its hottest year, though we won't have final numbers on that for a couple weeks .

Back here in Vermont, precipitation in 2024 was highly variable. Both in when it rained and snowed and where it rained. The summer was very wet, the autumn very dry. 

At Burlington, rainfall for the year was unremarkable. Total rainfall for the year there was 38.35 inches, which is just 0.82 inches above average

St. Johnsbury set a new record for rainiest year with 55.59 inches. That included an incredible 17.15 inches that fell just in the month of July.   Southern Vermont saw slightly below normal rainfall for the year. 

It was certainly an eventful year in Vermont, as we had several devastating floods, along with damaging wind storms, winter storms and oppressive heat. With climate change, extreme weather is becoming the norm in Vermont and many other places.

Expect plenty more weather weirdness in 2025. 

DECEMBER

December in Vermont broke the trend of warm months in 2024.  Most places saw temperatures near or just slightly below what is regarded as normal.  Remember, this is the "new normal," which is the average of temperatures between 1990 and 2020.

 Due to climate change those years were warmer than the 20th century average.  Had December, 2024's weather hit a half century ago, it would have been regarded as a little on the warm side. 

The biggest news of the month was when Burlington's temperature fell to minus 3 on December 22. That ended a record long 663 consecutive days above zero. 

A record or near record warm spell in the closing days of the month offset generally chillier than average conditions on several days either side of the Christmas holiday. 

Precipitation across Vermont was a little above average, which was good news after a remarkably dry autumn. Most of the precipitation fell on and around December 11, when 1.5 to as much as three inches of rain drenched the state.

Such a storm would have normally created some flooding, but it was so dry prior to the storm that there was little trouble with rainfall. 

 

Confirmed: August And Summer As A Whole In Vermont Hot, Wet

 Hot and wet.

Dark thunderstorm clouds invade blue sky on a humid
day over Colchester, Vermont on August 4. That
turned out to be typical weather for the entire month.

That's definitely how you can describe the summer of 2024. We knew that already, but the final figures are in to prove it. 

TEMPERATURES

The August figures are in and we had another warmer than normal month, at least if you look at all the historical averages dating back to the 1880s.

Even so, August was the "coolest" relative to normal of the three summer months in Vermont this year.  Overall temperatures for the month were near what has become a new normal. 

"Normal" temperatures are the average of the period from 1990 to 2020.  This is moved ahead every decade. Until 2020, the "normal." was the average between 1980 and 2010. You see how it's updated every decade.

Under this arrangement, Burlington was actually a touch cooler than this new normal in August, 2024, with a mean temperature of 70.4 degrees compared to this so-called "normal" of 70.7 degrees.

But this August was decidedly warmer than the 20th century average in Burlington. In the past 132 years, I could only find 29 Augusts that were as warm or warmer than this year. And only fifteen of those were before 1990.

Elsewhere in Vermont, August came in just a bit warmer than the new average, mostly by a degree or less. 

The month was humid in general, and you can see evidence of that in the numbers. Humid days tend to keep high temperatures suppressed a little bit, and overnight low temperatures on the higher side. 

Across Vermont, average high temperatures in August, 2024 were a bit below the "new normal," But average lows for the month were solidly on the warmer than average side. 

RAINFALL/OTHER EVENTS

Precipitation was generous across Vermont in August, 2024, but thankfully not nearly as torrential or destructive as in the previous month. 

Still, the Northeast Kingdom did have some more flooding in early August, and more heavy rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Debby around August 9-10. Over those two days. St. Johnsbury had 2.78 inches of rain. 

Debris from a roof that blew off a house in St. Albans Bay,
Vermont on August 9 due to high winds produced by
former Hurricane Debby 

For the entire month, pretty much everyone was about an inch on the heaver than average side, except ultra wet St. Johnsbury, which had 6.11 inches of rain in August, about two inches more than normal. 

We did get a scare with Debby on August 9 to 10, as forecasts prior to the storm indicated Vermont might be in for another devastating flood. Instead, the severe flooding hit Pennsylvania, western and northwestern New York and on into Quebec.

High winds with that storm,  however, did cause quite a bit of damaging in the Green Mountain State, especially in and near the Champlain Valley. 

Like in many recent summers, we also dealt with occasional bouts of wildfire smoke during August, but the pollution wasn't nearly as bad as last year. 

FULL SUMMER

Meteorological summer runs from June 1 to August 31. This year, there's some pretty impressive records for the season.   .

St. Johnsbury  - very remarkably - had both its hottest and wettest summer on record, reports the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

It's especially wild since records in St. Johnsbury go back to 1894. The longer the period of record at a weather station,  the less likely they are to break big records like seasonal temperature and rain. The average summer temperature in St. Johnsbury was 70.3.

St. Johnsbury's wettest summer record was so off the charts I still can't believe it. From June 1 through August 31, they had an incredible 29.48 inches of rain over the three months, including that insane 17.15 inch total for July. 

St. Johnsbury's wettest day in history was the 8.08 inches that fell on July 30. Even if you subtract out the July 30 from this summer's rainfall, St. Johnsbury would still have had its wettest summer on record.  

Burlington tied with 2018 for the third hottest summer on record, with a three-month average of 72.1 degrees. That means four of the top five hottest summers in Burlington have been since 2018.  That's quite a trend that certainly hints at climate change. 

It reached at least 90 degrees on 14 days this summer. It's looking really unlikely we'll see any more such days, so that should be the total for the year. Only 13 other summers in Burlington since the late 1880s had as many or more 90 degree days than that. 

Montpelier had its third wettest and sixth warmest summer on record in 2024. 

Vermont managed to see a rare year in which at least one place managed to get to at least 100 degrees. North Springfield, Vermont, reached 101 degrees on June 21. They had quite a heat wave, with daily highs on June 19-21 at 98, 99, and that 101.

Speaking of quite a heat wave, Lebanon, New Hampshire had the most consecutive 90 degree days on record as each of the 12 days from July 6 through 17 reached at least 90.  Lebanon is a good proxy for White River Junction since it's right across the Connecticut River. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Long range forecasts, as I always like to point out are prone to error. But they often do provide hints as to what's coming up, even if they're not always reliable. 

In recent years, summer weather has extended well into September, another sign of climate change. 

This year, though, the first half of September looks like we'll be a little closer to autumn than usual. Temperatures over the next two weeks are forecast to be near or a little cooler than average across Vermont. 

Longer range forecasts from NOAA, however, hint at better odds of a warmer than average autumn overall.  NOAA gives the best chances of a toasty autumn to the southern Rockies and New England.   

That's also consistent with recent autumn. Seven of the ten warmest autumns on record in Burlington have occurred since 2011. Records go back to the 1880s.

Vermont Summer: At Least The Pumpkins Are Big

Vermont Agriculture Secretary Anson Tebbetts snapped
this photo of this year's giant pumpkin contest at the 
Champlain Valley Fair.  The winner, middle pumpkin
weighed a record 1,327.5 pounds. 

I had a post the other day, I inventoried some of the negative effects such a hot, humid, wet summer we had on Vermont.  

But there were plusses to that oppressive weather, too.

Like giant pumpkins.

Wilbur Horton of Springfield, Vermont entered a giant pumpkin at the Champlain Valley Fair this past week that shattered the record for the heaviest one on record there. His pumpkin weighed a staggering, 1,327.5 pounds, as WPTZ reports. 

The old record for the most giant pumpkin any the fair was set last year, another hot, wet summer. That 2023 pumpkin weighed a mere 1,280 pounds. 

Most of the credit for this year's giant pumpkin record has to go to Horton's pumpkin growing prowess. He is, after all, a member of the Vermont Giant Pumpkin Growers Association. (I had no idea such an organization exists, but it sounds fun).

Still, pumpkins love hot, humid weather so the conditions were ripe, so to speak, for Horton's gourd. Southeastern Vermont, where Horton lives, was not as wet and somewhat sunnier than northern sections of the state during the summer, so that surely helped. 

If you want to see the winning pumpkin for yourself, there's still time. It's on display in the fairgrounds in Essex Junction until September 1.

Certain other crops do well in a Vermont summer that was more like you'd see in the Mid-Atlantic States.  My garden is producing cucumbers so prolifically and fast that my husband finds himself frantically pickling them so they last longer. 

I understand there's bumper crops of tomatoes. I see apple trees are sagging under the weight of a huge number of fruit. Also, don't get me started on zucchini.  

If you have a bumper crop, or giant pumpkins or other huge veggies, let me know. 

Very Hot Times In United States - Including Vermont - This Summer If NOAA Forecast Is Accurate

NOAA says the vast majority of the Lower 48 of the
United States has a stronger chance of a hot summer
than chances of cool weather. Vermont is among
the areas that have the greatest chance of a hot summer.

We here in Vermont are in for a nasty cold blast tomorrow and tomorrow night, but if long range forecasts are any indication, we might look back at this weeks upcoming big freeze with a sense of nostalgia.  

NOAA this past week updated its seasonal forecasts. If they're right, the United States is in for one scorcher of a summer.

Vermont could be in one of the hottest zones, relative to average that is, if the NOAA forecast is accurate.

The forecast covering June, July and August says that chances favor above normal temperatures for the entire Lower 48 except in North Dakota and small sections of adjoining states.  There, it's a tossup as to whether summer will be warmer and cooler than usual.

The best chances for a hot summer are in a broad area from Texas on up through most of the Rockies, and in all of New England and most of New York. 

Worse, if the NOAA forecast is correct the heat would be combined with a lot of humidity in the eastern United States. Those areas, which include Vermont, lean toward a somewhat wetter than average summer. That spells the risk of lots of horrible, humid days.  

A hot summer is by no means guaranteed around here. Forecasts for general weather patterns two, three or four months in the future are always at risk of being wrong. The hot summer prediction is better than flipping a coin, but NOAA doesn't always get it right. Nobody does for this type of forecast.

NOAA actually does forecasts for consecutive groups of three months. 

These predictions don't bode well for us in Vermont if there accurate

The period encompassing May, June and July - basically early summer - have the highest chances of being hotter than normal in most of the Northeast, including Vermont, western Texas and parts of New Mexico, and in parts of the Pacific Northwest.

Late summer, the period including July, August and September, also have the greatest odds of being on the hot side in New England and the Rocky Mountains. Interestingly, not one bit of the Lower 48 is forecast to be a tossup, normal or on the cool side in late summer. 

In the era of climate change, this hot forecast makes me wonder if we'll set another record in Vermont for hottest summer. 

All but one of the top five hottest summers in Burlington have happened since 2005.  

Although last summer was warmer than average, 2023 gave us a break from record and near record  warm stretches. The summer of 2020 was the hottest on record in Burlington. In 2021, we had our fourth hottest summer. And 2022 came in as a tie for eighth hottest. 

Hot, Hot, Hot and Wet, Wet Wet (Yes, This Is Still A Weather/Climate Blog)

A distant thunderstorm erupts from behind the trees in
St. Albans, Vermont Tuesday.  Hot humid weather today
will lead to yet more storms Friday, with a bit of a
flood threat yet again. 

 It is turning into that kind of summer. 

It's uncomfortable out in Vermont. There's (almost) always the threat of rain. And occasionally, the heat gets too hot, and the rain gets too, well, flood-ish.  That's the way it's been for nearly two weeks now, and that's the way it will be for at least a week. 

Today through the weekend seems to be a peak with this scenario. Today will be the hottest of the stretch, and this weekend and early next week, might be the wettest of this stalled weather pattern. 

We'll get into the heat first

HOT THURSDAY

As advertised, today is not your day to run a marathon.  Or do anything more strenuous than get off the couch for that matter. 

Temperatures in most Vermont valleys will get past 90 degrees, and the humidity will make it feel much worse. There won't even be much of a breeze to help out. Plus the air quality is still kind of meh from all those Canadian wildfires. It's not a smoke out, and it's not super dangerous. But between the heat, humidity and the somewhat smoky haze, people with issues like asthma ought to be really careful today. 

Heat advisories are in effect for the Champlain Valley, the lower elevations of Rutland County, and the lower Connecticut River valley. The "real feel" in these areas will be in the mid to upper 90s, even if actual temperatures are in the chilly (ha!) 88 to 95 degree range. 

Those of you who are not in the heat advisory zones are still going to wilt. 

The expected high temperature in Burlington today is 94 degrees, close to the record high for the date of 95, so we might actually tie that record. Montpelier should come close to a record, too, with an expected high of 89 compared to the record for the date of 91. 

This will be the third day in a row of 90 degree weather in Burlington. That qualifies this as an "official" heat wave, because it's defined in Vermont anyway as three or more days in a  row that make it to at least 90. 

I don't like that construction, because say you get this theoretical string of high temperatures:  90, 94, 89, 91,92,89, 90.  That's one hell of a hot spell, but those 89s in there mean that this isn't a heat wave. Really?

In any event, this will be Burlington's 81st official heat wave since 1886.

By the end of the day, this will be Burlington's fifth day of 90 degree weather this year.  That's sort of in line with the past decade. By July 6, we've had between zero and 10 days with 90 degree weather through this date. (The most being in 2020. That year, we ended up with 20 such days by the time autumn arrived).

Oh, by the way, tomorrow and Saturday will be oppressively hot and humid, too.  It might not make it to 90, but it will get kind of close. Showers and storms should interfere with both day's ability to make it to 90, but you never know.

That leads us into the rain and storm threat

HEAVY STORMS?

A dying cold front will be approaching us tomorrow. It will fall apart by the time it makes it here, but the remnants will be more than enough to trigger numerous showers and storms during the afternoon. 

There will be enough oomph in the atmosphere to make some of the storms fairly strong.  Most won't be, but a few lucky devils will see damaging winds and possibly some hail. Kind of like what we saw on the Fourth of July. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington notes that the ground is now quite wet from all the rain we've had. That makes it easier for strong thunderstorm winds to uproot and knock over trees.

The bigger problem is again, all this humidity. The storms will use this wet air to their advantage, and create some torrential downpours in spots. The thunderstorms probably won't move along very fast either, giving them time to drop a lot of rain.

So, once again, there is risk of local flash floods. It's hard to predict where these incidents might happen.  It'll be a case of one town or one section of a town seeing some roads washed out, while the next town over barely gets any rain at all.

Things will settle down Friday night. 

The remains of that dead cold front will be over eastern Vermont Saturday, so that's where the best chance of more thunderstorms with heavy rain will set up.  Western Vermont could see a couple storms, but they will be pretty widely scattered.

I'm still seeing signs of possible heavy rain Sunday and Monday, which could lead to more widespread flooding. We're not sure on that yet, though. I'll have more on that as we get closer to the event. 

Running Hot And Cold, Also, Another Big Dump Of Rain Looming? Rinsing And Repeating

Showers seen bubbling up in the distance yesterday as
viewed from South Burlington, Vermont. Outflow from
the showers yesterday kept abruptly switching the 
day's weather from warm to cold to warm again.

 If you spent anytime outside in Vermont yesterday, as I did, you could be forgiven if you thought you were coming down with something. 

One moment, you're in the sun doing some gardening, working or just having fun, and you start to sweat. It felt warm. Really warm .The next moment, you're freezing your butt off. 

No, it wasn't a fever or the flu coming on.  It was the atmosphere over us playing those tricks. 

The April sun is high and warm, and it heats up the ground where we are pretty fast. As I noted yesterday, there was a pool of cold air high above us. 

The sun, as expected, created updrafts that produced those billowy clouds that turned into showers. 

Most (but not all!) of the showers were pretty light, but as they developed, they pulled down packets of that cold air from up high.  You didn't even need to be under one of these showers to get these cold blasts.

You just had to be near them. That explained the sudden chill in the air at times.  Then the showers would move on, the sun would heat things up again, more showers, more cold downdrafts, rinse and repeat.  

Rinse and repeat is the theme of this post, actually. 

We're going to go through it all again today, similar to Tuesday. Once again, there's patchy dense fog around this morning which will burn off. There are patches of blue sky as the sun rises.  Once again, there's cold air up above us.

Which means more showers forming today. Chances are, if you're outside again today, you might once again run hot and cold on a day, like yesterday, that couldn't seem to make up its mind. 

NEW STORM

Sunshine and dark clouds yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont.
Showers mixed with the sunshine caused temperatures
to go all over the place Tuesday. Same thing
could happen today. 

Yesterday and today's weather was influenced by the remnants of that soaking storm that came through on Sunday and Monday.  

Here's another rinse and repeat:  It appears we might have an almost identical setup to this week, starting over the weekend and continuing into next week. 

Although the details of the forecast are still hazy, it's looking like another wet storm will come through sometimes between Saturday and Monday. 

 If anything this storm might end up being even wetter and bigger than the last one, if everything comes together just so.

We'll have to watch for some minor flooding with this next storm, as another inch or two or locally more of rain would get some already fast flowing rivers up near bank full.  Later forecasts will pin down this possibility. 

Then, just like last Sunday's storm, this one will stall out somewhere near or just north of us. Another cold pool of air will thusly set up overhead, and next week will be showery, changeable and cool, just like this week. 

TEXAS HAIL 

Some of the stronger storms yesterday in Vermont and New York produced isolated instances of pea sized hail. No biggie, especially compared to Texas, where they do everything bigger.

Yesterday, hail as big as baseballs crashed down on central Texas and the Texas panhandle.

Today looks worse. The risk of gorilla hail is on the docket for populated areas around Dallas-Fort Worth. The term gorilla hail, meaning very large, damaging balls of ice, was reportedly invented on the fly a couple years ago as noted storm chaser Reed Timmer as he watched another big hail storm batter a town in Texas.

Gorilla hail, if it develops over populated areas, can be incredibly expensive with a flood of insurance claims following the trail of broken windows, smashed up cars and wrecked roofs after a hail storm. 

Hail storms each caused between $1 and $2 billion - with a b - in damage around the Dallas-Fort Worth area in 1995, 2003, 2012 and 2017,

So, if today's hail could be a mess.  If the worst storms stay out in open country, that would be better. On top of everything else, there's a risk of tornadoes later today in northern Texas, too. 

Consistently Warm Again! August Was World's Sixth Hottest

Almost the entire world except the eastern Pacific
Ocean had a hot summer, 2022, according to NOAA data.

 Yep, the world had another super warm month in August, confirms federal climate officials. 

August, 2022 was the sixth hottest on record for the globe, says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. For more than a year now, pretty much every month has ranged from fifth to seventh hottest on record. 

This of course, isn't a surprise, since record heat waves were in the news all month. 

NOAA releases the previous month's climate data, usually at midmonth. The August report came out on Wednesday. 

To summarize what's been going on, we're in an incredibly persistent El Nina weather pattern. In this pattern, the eastern Pacific Ocean cools markedly.  This has the effect of cooling the entire world, on average anyway, a bit. 

This is why it's been a few years since the world has had a record warm month. But the fact that we're consistently scoring in the top ten warmest list month after month during an El Nina is disconcerting.   

The opposite weather pattern, El Nino, tends to warm the planet as a whole beyond what you'd expect. El Ninos also tend to contribute to extreme weather events. When we get into an El Nino, it will get scary. The cooler La Nina pattern is expected to continue for at least a few more months. 

But, if things get even hotter and more extreme during the inevitable El Nino, this could get really nasty really fast. 

August was the final month of climatological summer in the northern hemisphere, and what a summer it has been! North America and Europe had their hottest August on record, and Asia's August was fourth warmest.

The reason why this August wasn't the world's hottest on record is because South America, Africa and Oceania had warmer than normal Augusts, but didn't score in the top ten hottest. 

The hottest spots, relative to average in August were in most of Europe, western North America, the northeastern United States, eastern Canada and central and eastern Asia. 

The coolest spots, which weren't all that cool, were the eastern Pacific Ocean off the west coast of South America, due to La Nina, and south-central Russia, central Australia and northeastern Brazil.

For the summer as a whole, June 1 through August 31, this year was the world's fifth hottest. All of the top five hottest summers for the globe as a whole have occurred since 2015.

Here in the contiguous United States, we had our eighth hottest August and third hottest summer on record in 2022. Interestingly, nights were particularly warm.  Both July and August had the warmest average daily minimum temperature on record. 

Eight states, including all of New England except Vermont and Maine, had their hottest Augusts on record. Vermont's August was "merely" the third hottest on record. 

July In Vermont: In "New Normal" Era, We Were Close To Average. But It Was Hot

Flowers in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens enjoy 
some humid late evening sunshine on a July evening

If you take into account the "new normal" we are under with climate change, the July that just ended could not have been more "average." 

In Burlington, the mean temperature was 73.3 degrees, just 0.9 degrees above what is now considered normal. 

 The National Weather Service updates what is "normal" once per decade. They take the average every year for the past 30 years and call that normal.

This year, each month is compared to all the months from 1990 to 2020.  Since those three decades were warmer than previous ones, the "normal" is warmer, too. 

For some context, even though Burlington was less than a degree above this normal, we still just barely missed out on scoring in the top ten list of hottest Julys. Number 10 had an average temperature of 73.5 degrees.

Also, had this July occurred around 1980 instead of 2022, it would have been considered 3.7 degrees hotter than average.  

In the rest of Vermont, as in Burlington, this July wasn't too far off the new normal in most places. Montpelier's records show this July was 2.4 degrees hotter than average there. St. Johnsbury said July, 2022 was only 0.4 degrees on the warm side. Bennington was 1.6 degrees above average in July.

Rainfall in July was near to somewhat below normal, depending upon where you were in the Green Mountain State.

Burlington logged 4.04 inches of rain, which is right at average. Technically 0.02 inches on the light side, but really, spot on. If the month seemed dry, it was because a lot of the rain fell in very short bursts. 

An odd cloud structure over Interstate 89 in Georgia, 
Vermont on July 23. The second half of the month
featured several rounds of storms, some severe
in the state. 

Half of Burlington's rainfall for the month fell in less than five hours, contained in brief but intense downpours on July 19 and 28.  

Rainfall in St. Johnsbury and Rutland was also pretty close to average. Other towns missed out on some of the downpours. Montpelier had 3.4 inches of rain in July, nearly an inch on the light side. Bennington was more than an inch and a half short on rain, with just three inches for the month against a normal of 4.65 inches.

The character of July weather in Vermont had two phases. The first half of the month was on the cool side, continuing the trend from June in which Vermont was pleasantly comfortable while most of the rest of the nation simmered in torrid conditions. 

The second half of the month turned decidedly hotter, though the full force of the heat waves still managed to avoid us. Burlington did endure six consecutive days in the 90s from the 19th to the 24th, ,and that was one of the city's longest heat waves on record.

Still, everyone in Vermont maxed out in the low 90s in July, which falls well short of the kind of all time record highs large swaths of the northern hemisphere have seen this summer. 

The hotter, more humid weather in the second half of the month created conditions favorable for severe storms. 

The oddball weather event of the month came on July 18 when a seemingly innocuous shower with no lightning got some real spin to it, and dropped two separate tornadoes on Addison County. Both were captured on film. 

The first twister, in Addison County, was an EF-1 with top winds of 90 mph. It damaged a carport, the deck on a home and numerous trees. The second, a weak brief EF-0 with top winds of 70 mph touched down in Waltham and caused little damage.

The Northeast Kingdom seemed to be ground zero for Vermont severe weather in July, with several days of damage reports. The worst of it came on July 21 when a rotating storm that carried a tornado warning swept through.

No tornado touched down, but high winds damaged lots of trees and power lines. Hail that in some cases was a little bigger than golf balls dinged cars and roofs. 

As we move into August,  it looks like the first half of the month will mostly have the same weather pattern we had in the second half of July. That means that intense heat lurking well to our west will send brief squirts of hot air our way. But before it gets too hot, weak cold fronts will usher the worst of it away.

If that comes to pass, we will have a warm, but not record hot early August. As always, there's no telling what the second half of the month will bring. But by then, we will be headed toward fall, and chances are you'll see a cooling trend as fair season arrives.

Out Of State To Experience The Last Summer Day Of 2021

View from my airplane window the other day as we descended
into Sioux Falls, Vermont last Thursday.  It's awfully hot
out here on the Great Plains for late September! 

 I've got another couple of days out here in Yankton, South Dakota, and as I watch Vermont slowly plunge into its first real autumnal cool spell, it's full on summer out here.  

It was 92 degrees out here in Yankton Sunday, so it was a truly summer day. It wasn't very humid, so the heat was manageable. Forecasts call for temperatures of near 90 degrees in Yankton today and tomorrow.

This all will make my impending return to Vermont feel even chillier than it will be. And it will be chilly enough, as many Vermont towns will stay below 60 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. 

Normal temperatures out here in Yankton are only a little warmer this time of year than in Vermont. But extremes are wider. Daily record highs are hotter than in Vermont, and daily record lows are lower.

The bottom line is, if you think Vermont weather bounces around a lot, try the Northern Plains. 

Back in Vermont, I'm pretty sure there won't be any true summer weather again until next, well, summer. Or maybe late spring.  That hot air in the Plains is not heading toward Vermont. Instead, an upper level low pressure system will direct Canadian air over us for the next few days.

It's a dry pattern, too, which is too bad because northern areas of Vermont still need the rain. A cold front and weather disturbance today will produce a tenth to three tenths of an inch of rain today, which is really not a whole lot. 

Very light, scattered showers could roam around Wednesday and Thursday in the chilly air but won't amount to much.

So far at least, frost during this cool spell looks like it will be limited to the normal cold spots. But keep watching the forecast daily. If any part of Vermont ends up getting several overnight hours of clear skies and light winds during this cool spell, frost could be more widespread.

Sure, there will be warm days ahead as we're still early in autumn.  But sustained summer weather is gone until next year. 

Vermont August Was Among Hottest, So Was Summer Overall

Showers erupt in the hot, steamy air over St. Albans, 
Vermont on August 13.  At Burlington, this August 
proved to be the second hottest on record.

 If you thought August was dreadfully hot in Vermont you thought correctly.  

Actually, the entire summer scored in the top 10 warmest on record, even with a relatively cool July.

The details are now in, so let's do the numbers.  

August, 2021 in Burlington, with a mean temperature of 74.4 degrees, was the second hottest on record. It was just a tenth of a degree "cooler" than the record holder of 2018.

Nights were especially toasty.  The average overnight low was 65.5 degrees. That's a record for August nights.  A whopping 11 nights during August failed to get below 70 degrees.

August nights usually start to cool after mid-month, but no nights after the 17th made it below 60 degrees. As September opened this morning, Burlington did manager to drop into the 50s.

Rainfall was thankfully a bit reversed from the trends we saw during the first half of summer.  In general the north was a bit wetter than the south. For instance, Burlington saw a healthy 4.4 inches of rain, which is more than three quarters of an inch above normal. Montpelier was also a bit on the wet side, with about 4.5 inches.

Southern and eastern Vermont were the most part drier. Springfield only got 2.2 inches of rain, which is more than an inch shy of average.

That doesn't mean there weren't high water problems once again.  A stalled, isolated thunderstorm in central Vermont on August 26 produced flash flooding near Hancock and Granville.

SUMMER IN VERMONT

Meteorological summer for climatologists goes from June 1 through August 31 so now we have that data.

In Burlington, summer of 2021 averaged out at 71.9 degrees, making it the fourth hottest summer on record, behind, 2020 1949 and 2018.

This is really remarkable since July, normally the hottest month of the year, was a relatively cool 69.6 degrees.  That was nearly three degrees cooler than average in the list of "new" normals. However, climate change has warmed us up so much that the 69.6 degree average for July would have been considered exactly normal had it occurred in the 1970s.

This summer featured 14 days that got to 90 degrees or more. That's way above average, but short of the record 26 days in 1949. 

Nineteen nights over the summer stayed at 70 degrees or above.  WPTZ meteorologist Ben Frechette looked into this and found this was a tie with 2018  for the second-most such stuffy nights on record. Only 1901 was worse, with 22 such nights.   

Frechette also cautions there's some missing data from 1901, so we could be off a little here. 

We seem to be on track for one of the hottest years on record in Vermont, unless the autumn and early winter prove to be chilly.  There's no telling whether that will happen or not, but we'll keep track of it!

In the short term, temperatures will bounce around during the first couple of weeks of September within range of normal. It looks like we'll have the usual coolish days interspersed with warmish ones, but nothing extreme for now.