Yes, It's A Cold Shot Coming To New England, But Not THAT Cold

I always post National Weather Service snowfall prediction
maps in the winter. I couldn't resist posting their snowfall
forecast for this weekend. As you can see, an inch or less
is expected in the high elevations, with maybe a couple
inches atop Mount Marcy, New York. 

 I've been hyping up the so-called cold snap and mountaintop snows coming Friday night and Saturday morning, but we actually should't complain. The weather over the next few days in Vermont really won't be that awful. 

Even Saturday won't be a total disaster. 

It's true that yesterday was the last warmer than normal day we'll see in Vermont for awhile. But this time of year, it can get dreadfully hot and humid.  We don't have to worry about that! 

In the past, it's also gotten much colder than what we're expecting this weekend.  For instance, the record low high temperature on Saturday in Burlington is 50 degrees. The forecast high is 59. 

Instead of all that, outdoor temperatures will be comfortably in 60s daily today through next Tuesday, except for Saturday. And there's no chance of frost except maybe in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom

We'll call today and tomorrow partly to variably cloudy with just a chance of isolated showers. It will be dry most of the time. Later Friday afternoon will tend to cloud up with a rising chance of showers north as our fast moving "bowling ball" of cold air comes toward us, fresh from the  Arctic Circle. 

THE COLD AIR

The pool of cold air will be over us mostly overnight Friday and Sunday morning. That's when the bulk of the rain (and snow!) will fall. There will probably be a dusting of snow at elevations above 3,500 feet and in higher elevations of the Northeast Kingdom. 

Rainfall for us valley dwellers will vary a lot, with less than a quarter inch south, a third of an inch maybe in the Champlain Valley, a half inch north and east of Interstate 89 and maybe more than three quarters of an inch in the Northeast Kingdom.

Saturday morning will certainly be cold and raw, but some breaks of sun will make things OK in many areas by mid to late afternoon.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY AND BEYOND

Those highs in the 60s during this period will be about five to 10 degrees cooler than average, but well take it. We'll have periods of sun, but also the risk of showers. So it will be the run inside when the rain hits, and a half hour later, it's back outside into the sunshine. t's hard to time out when, those showers might arrive, but the best chance is probably Sunday night and Monday. 

For those of you who like warm summer weather and dislike this cool stuff, there's hope for you, too. The weather pattern will start to change during the middle of next week, and it looks like we'll have at least spells of average to somewhat warmer than average temperatures starting the second half of next week. 

The usual caveat applies: Long range forecasts are iffy, so no promises! 

Vermont's Damp, Chilly Start To May Is No Match For Past May New England Nightmares

Only the briefest breaks in the clouds yesterday as 
clouds billowed up to produce showers. 
Highs were only in the low 50s and chilly 
breezes made it worse. We face daily rain
chances tomorrow through next weekend. 

 We've gotten ourselves into a weather pattern share in New England in which clouds predominant and rain is an almost constant threat. 

But if you're slightly depressed about the weather, it can get a lot worse this time of year. More on that in a minute. 

We're only into the third day of May, and it hasn't been all that bad yet. Sure, yesterday was sort of unpleasant, with clouds, chilly breezes and on and off light showers. 

The next couple of days don't look terrible. But rain is coming back, and after a brief warm up, chilly weather and rain will be back. 

DETAILS

Today:

The only day in the near future I see without a rain threat seems to be today.  Morning clouds should dissolve into at least a partly sunny day. Highs should get into the 50s, which is a little cool for this time of year. 

Monday

A weak warm front tomorrow morning might set off a few light showers, mostly north and west. The rest of the day looks pretty good again under partly sunny skies and highs in the seasonable low 60s. Southwest breezes might occasionally help keep the black flies at bay. They're terrible this year! But I guess the black flies are horrendous every spring. 

Tuesday

A warmer and eventually wetter day.  The southwest breezes should continue and highs should rise into the low 70s. We also having a rising chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. I'm not sure yet whether any of thunderstorms will become strong, but the chances of a lot of severe thunderstorms is looking quite low.

Wednesday 

A slow moving cold front will keep us rainy and much cooler again. Highs should stay in the 50s.  This could change but rainfall totals Tuesday night to Wednesday night look like they might be a decent half inch to an inch. Nothing incredible, but we actually need the rain, so we'll take what we can get. 

Thursday and Beyond

Starting Thursday and continuing for perhaps several days, we're back to annoying weather. We probably won't have much rain Thursday and next weekend. Unless a nor'easter type storm comes closer to Vermont than we now think it will. 

But there will be an ever-present chance of showers, we will probably have a fair amount of clouds and temperatures will definitely be cooler than average for this time of year. 

IT COULD BE WORSE

The unsettled weather pattern has be thinking about past bouts of bad May weather. Just because I like to prove that if you're a little peeved about the weather, it could definitely be worse. 

1917

The coldest May on record. Only two days that month were warmer than 63 degrees. Nowadays, at least, in our climate changed world, normal May highs in Burlington range from 64 degrees on the 1st to 74 degrees on the 31st. 

The coldest it got that month was 32 degrees, which actually isn't that bad for May, but 18 mornings were in the 30s.  On eight days in May, 1917, temperatures in Burlington never got out of the 40s. 

1966

It's a tight battle, but my vote for the worst May on record in the past several decades is 1966. There were  series of bad Mays in the 1960s - cold, frosty, sometime snowy. But 1966 is probably the most miserable. Especially the first half. 

In Burlington, each morning from the May 1 through 15, 1966 were in the 20s and 30s. Eleven of those mornings were below freezing. That includes a low of 24 degrees on May 3, still the coldest temperature on record for May. It was 15 degrees in West Burke, 18 in Bloomfield and Chelsea and 19 in Cavendish, according to the Vermont Weather Book. 

On May 9, Burlington had 3.5 inches of snow, which is still the city's largest May snowstorm on record. Peru, Vermont had 11 inches of snow that day,  Newport had 5.2 inches. 

The second half of May, 1966 was better, with four days actually making it into the low 80s. 

1997

The most depressing May that I can remember clearly was in 1997.  There really weren't any temperature extremes, but we could just not get a warm day.  The temperature never got past 70 degrees until the 28th. May, 1997 is still the 10th coldest on record, 

 I remember the trees not fully leafing out until we got into June that year. Spring, 1997 was especially depressing because April was quite cold, too, 

2013

May, 2013 was actually pretty nice until we got toward the end of the month. Burlington had more than an inch of rain on four consecutive days on May 22-25.  May 21 came close to making it five days with 0.96 inches. I don't think there's any wetter stretch of weather than that on record. A whopping 7.39 inches of rain fell within six days.

The month's total was 8.74 inches, making it the wettest May on record. 

The first part of this wet spell was warm, with torrential thunderstorms. Those storms caused some damaging flash flooding in eastern Chittenden and Lamoille County, Vermont. 

A cold front passed and stalled to the east of Vermont, causing heavy snow in the mountains. Three feet of snow covered the summit of Whiteface Mountain in New York. The summit of Mount Mansfield had 13.2 inches, the latest in the season the mountain has gotten a foot of snow.

Nothing extreme like that is in the forecast for now. I guess we're blessed this May looks like it will just turn out mediocre. 

 

Enjoy Vermont Spring Now, Because It Will Come To A Temporary Halt Late This Week

Some hyanicith and daffodils enjoying spring this
week in a St. Albans, Vermont garden 

Saturday was another gorgeous spring day in Vermont, though it did, as expected, cloud up quite a bit in southwestern parts of the state. 

We have basically three and a half days more wonderful spring weather coming up before the season comes to a grinding, though obviously temporary halt at the end of the week. Weather systems often stall in the spring. 

We're lucky enough now to be stuck under sunny high pressure. By the second half of the week, we'll be mired beneath a cold pool of cold air aloft, which means clouds, very chilly air, some rain showers, and yes, mountain snow. 

 I'll do the spoiler now: The halt to spring won't wreck your garden plants and trees, but it will stop the buds from popping and more flowers from bursting for a least a couple days. 

Let's get into the details

TODAY

The disturbance that dove southeast through New York State Saturday, giving much of that state a damp, rainy Saturday is heading off into the Atlantic Ocean. That Canadian high pressure that's been giving us the cool, generally sunny weather the past couple of days is taking over again. 

It's a big one, extending from Nunavut, up in the Arctic of northeastern Canada a little west of Greenland, all the way down to New England. 

Canadian high pressure is usually chilly. And the northern part is. The forecast high in Iqaluit, Nunavut today is 9 degrees, compared to a normal high of 20.  Yep, it's cold up there in the Arctic, Captain Obvious  tells us.

However, way down here in tropical New England (practice your southern accents, y'all), the strong late April sun is cooking the air mass and making it warmer and warmer. That's why Saturday was a little warmer than Friday. And why today will be a little toastier than yesterday. 

So we'll have quite a lot of sunshine with highs generally in the low 60s today. The Northeast Kingdom will be a little cooler in the upper 50s while southern valley floors probably reach the mid 60s. 

MONDAY AND TUESDAY

The spring sunshine train will continue as that high pressure holds firm.  It'll turn even warmer both days as we get well into the 60s. A few places will flirt with 70 degrees. That's 'actually only somewhat warmer than normal for this time of year. (Normal highs are near 60 degrees) We'll take it! 

The only problem with all this is the fire danger. It's very dry and very sunny, with very low humidity. Too many verys there but you get the point. Winds should be pretty light today and tomorrow, which will help. Even so, light winds don't prevent fires. They just don't spread as fast, but they do spread. 

A brush and woodland fire in Milton looks like it spread pretty quickly yesterday afternoon, and firefighters were on the scene for about four hours putting it out. 

It'll get windier on Tuesday, so that will be the day to really watch out for woodland and field blazes. 

WEDNESDAY

A transition day as we begin to flip toward the new, definitely less pleasant stuck weather pattern. Sunshine should fade behind clouds and there might be some rain drops toward the end of the day. Highs will still reach the 60s.

THURSDAY

This will be the rainiest of the days as low pressure becomes established overhead or at least nearby. Hard to say how much rain we'll get, but early projections suggest a half inch. So not all that much, but at least it will wet the ground down and end the fire danger. 

FRIDAY/ NEXT WEEKEND

The cold pool of air will sit overhead during this time, keeping us mostly cloudy and definitely cold for this time of year. Highs Friday and Saturday might not get out of the 40s for many of us, which is why I'm saying spring will come to a stop. Plants don't like to grow when it's in the 40s. At least we won't have any real freezes to hurt anything as nighttime temperatures should stay mostly in the 30s during this nippy spell.

Much of the time should be rain free, but there will always be a risk of light rain showers at any time. But especially in the afternoons and evenings as the April sun makes the cold air less stable. 

And yes, it will be cold enough for snow in the highest elevations. Not much, but some. And even in the valleys, a particularly robust shower might bring down some extra cold air, and you'll end up with something called graupel. 

Graupel is basically teeny tiny snowballs.  They are snowflakes that had super cooled water attach to them. So they're these little white sleety things that remind me of bits of packing material or styrofoam. 

So. Yay. 

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND

It'll warm up a little after next weekend, but we're stuck in a chilly, unsettled weather pattern at least into the middle of May, and possibly beyond. There's a good chance you'll see an occasional sunny, warmish day thrown in from time to time, but generally speaking, it will be cool and showery much of the time. 

It's way too soon to figure out if we'll get some soaking rains out of this pattern, or just some annoying sprinkles. As far as I'm concerned, if it's going to rain, we might as well get some good drenching here and there to get the gardens and farm fields in shape for the start of summer. 

Time will tell, as it always does..

Vermont Monday Morning; Winter In April Continues

A burst of snow shortly after 7 a.m. this morning in
the Burlington area. This is a Vermont Transportation
Agency camera on Williston Road. Note the snow
sticking to the pavement on the bridge but
not on solid ground. I'm sure frozen bridges
surprised many motorists this morning. 

I awoke to another fresh dusting of snow in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday after it snowed most of the day Sunday. There was a dark overcast and it was still snowing a little.  

The National Weather Service issued a special weather statement for early this morning, warning of subfreezing temperatures and snow showers creating slick spots on the roads. A traffic camera shortly after 7 a.m. showed a moderate snow shower in Burlington with ice and snow sticking to the pavement of a bridge on Williston Road.

This morning looks and feels like the typical start of the day in late November, as we gird for a long winter. We obviously don't have a long winter coming, thank gawd, but unfortunately, winter weather is going to seriously subvert spring over the next 24 hours. 

After a cold day today, it'll be frigid tonight, as we've been forecasting for day.s 

It's not just us. Freeze warnings extend from Iowa through the southern Great Lakes and in pretty much all the Mid-Atlantic states. There's going to be a lot of garden damage with this cold wave.

Despite the expected deep chill tonight, there are no freeze warnings in Vermont. The growing season hasn't technically started yet, so the National Weather Service does not do such warnings this time of year. 

Let's get into the details 

TODAY

The snow showers should move out later this morning and some sun should break out, especially in the broader valleys. But frigid air is rocketing in to counteract the  strong April sun, it's going to be a typical mid-March day. That means highs generally in the upper 30s. A little warmer than that in southern valleys. A  little colder than that in northern higher elevations. 

Some places in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks won't even get above freezing today. Pretty impressive for the third week in April. Impressive, but not in a good way. The ever-present gusty northwest winds will add to the chill 

Today's March wind and chilly temperatures set the stage for winter like morning lows tomorrow morning. 

TONIGHT

It still looks like skies will clear and winds will go nearly calm. Those are perfect conditions for super cold morning lows. 

As we've been harping on, garden plants and such have sprouted prematurely due to the recent warm weather, so that's why we're in trouble with the potential for frozen, ruined early season flowers and buds by morning.

There's the slightest bit of encouraging news. Maybe. Some  but not all of the  forecasts I saw this morning are a couple degrees warmer than yesterday's forecast. Those predicted lows are still well within the damage zone for garden plants. But every degree warmer than forecast lessens the damage. 

Also, a minority of forecasts indicate a few clouds might intrude overnight. We want to hope the minority wins, as clouds would help keep temperatures up. 

The current National Weather Service forecast has a low tonight in Burlington at 25 degrees, Rutland at 24, Brattleboro near 23, Montpelier at 21 and St. Johnshury at 19 degrees.

The plant damage will be worse in southern Vermont because they had much warmer weather for a longer period of time last week than in northern parts of the state. So things are really far along down there, and primed to get nipped by the freeze.

The traditional cold hollows are looking ridiculous tonight. Some towns in the Northeast Kingdom could end up in the low teens. Saranac Lake, New York is expected a Tuesday morning low of 11 degrees. 

I guess I'm focusing too much on tonight's cold weather on this because I'm an avid gardener. To most of the Vermont world, this cold spell will be forgotten very soon. Especially since the weather will turn to something very close to normal by the middle and end of the week

REST OF THE WEEK

And after the volatile weather of the past several days, the weather starting tomorrow will be well, boring. Which will honestly be a nice change of pace. . 

Tuesday will still be rather cold for this time of year, with highs in the 40s. They should be in the 50s to around 60 

The weather pattern setting up includes a stalled upper level low in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure near Hudson Bay.  This is normally a recipe for much colder, unsettled, almost wintry conditions for this time of year. 

But the Canadian storm and the cold high pressure in Canada will be so far away from us that temperatures will be near or just a couple degrees cooler than average for late April.  The weather set up will mean storms coming from the west will get broken apart before they get here or get shunted to our south. 

That means if we get any rainfall over the next week it will be quite light, but timing out those light showers at this point is hard to do. 

Long range forecasts are notoriously dicey .But for now, the next chance of substantial rain doesn't come along until around April 29. And yes, if that April 29 storm materializes, it will be rain, not snow.

Quiet weather is expected for the end of the work week
along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures and periods of
cloud cover as a closed upper level low gyres over the Canadian
Maritimes. As an upper level ridge over the Great Lakes breaks down
and the maritime low shifts east, chances for precipitation increase
heading into next weekend, but with low predictability given the
evolving pattern and model spread. Highs for the end of the week
will be in the 50s, reaching into the 60s on the weekend, with lows
30s rising into the 40s.

The King Of Tough Winters Outdid Itself This Year. Fairbanks, Alaska Endured Most Extreme Chill In 60 Years.

A scene from Fairbanks, Alaska, this past
winter. Yeah, they're crazy up there.
This past winter, and through March
so far, has been among the coldest
on record there. This in a city that's'
already insanely cold in the winter,

Alaska winters are always more challenging than they are in most of the Lower 48, and this winter has really made Alaskans suffer. 

If you wanted a frigid endurance test this winter, Fairbanks was your city. 

Fairbanks is pretty much right in the middle of Alaska. Frigid air settles in there, and it gets to 40 below most winters. Sometimes 50 below. One time, in 1934, it was 66 below in Fairbanks. 

Obviously, it takes a special breed to live there. This winter, I imagine some members of that special breed want to call it quits on Fairbanks. The intense cold was just unrelenting. 

THE STATS

December was a whopping 18.5 degrees colder than average, with a mean temperature of, ugh, 22.8 below. People in Fairbanks woke up to 12 days in the minus 40s that month. 

January was a welcome "break" for Fairbanks as it was only 6.1 degrees colder than average with a mean temperature of minus 14.4. It did get down to minus 50 on January 4 though. That day had a lovely high temperature of 46 below. 

February also wasn't super cold, either, at least by Fairbanks standards. However, February was also the wettest and second snowiest February on record in Fairbanks, with 38.7 inches of snow. Precipitation melted down amounted to 2.53 inches. 

All sorts of records and near-records were set with this intense Fairbanks winter, according to the National Weather Service office there, which released this statement:.

"With Fairbanks having record 52 days at or below -30F;  31 days at or below -40F and 66 days where temperatures did not get above 0F, the average temperature from December 1st through March 22nd sits at -14.7 degrees. This marks the 2nd coldest ever such period in Fairbanks history since 1904, the coldets the interior (central Alaska) has seen in 60 years (since 1966) showing just how cold not only this winter has been but alls the start of spring."

Those 31 days at or below minus 40 is the fourth most on record. 

Tuesday was also the 144th day in a row that stayed below freezing. That's the second longest such stretch on record and the longest since the winter of 1971-72.

Fairbanks is usually a very dry place in the winter. When extreme cold settles in, it's even drier, with very little snow during the course of the season. Not this winter. The heavy snow in February was just part of the story. 

Fairbanks has had 92.6 inches of snow so far this season, a respectable 12th  most on record. The deepest snow depth this winter was 38 inches. which is the 14th deepest on record. 

Warmer times are coming to Fairbanks, finally. By next week, high temperatures should be in the low 30s with lows in the single digits. That might seem horrible for April, but for Fairbanks, that's exactly average for this time of year.  

OTHER CITIES AND BUCKING A TREND

Other Alaskan cities have had a tough go of it, too. 

Juneau, Alaska endured 82 inches of inches of snow during December, nearly 50 inches of it in the final five days of the month. over just a week or so in late December. Juneau reached a new snowy milestone this week,   Snowfall for the season there reached a whopping 201.2 inches, the most on record. 

Anchorage, Alaska has had at least 20 inches of snow on the ground since January 27. This month, through Wednesday, March 24 is running 13.1 degrees colder than normal. Through Wednesday, it hadn't been above freezing since February 6, 

Normal high temperature in Anchorage this time of year are in the mid-30s, and the city usually has a handful of above freezing temperatures every month of the year.  It's finally forecast to get above freezing in Anchorage Sunday or Monday.

 This winter has been an anomaly in Alaska. Under the sinister spell of climate change, pPaces closer to the North Pole have been warming much faster than mid-latitudes under. The period from December 1 to March 22 this year is the second coldest on record.

Last year, in 2024-25, that same period was the absolute warmest on record in Fairbanks. Anchorage also had an unusually warm winter in 2024-25

One Day Of Spring Today In Vermont Before Winter Returns For A Two-Day Visit

Much of the snow that fell last week on my yard
had melted by this morning. Most of the rest should
go today under mild southerly breezes along
with a little late day rain. 

March and April tend to bring wildly variable weather across Vermont on a given day, and yesterday was sort of that way. 

A weather front was draped across the state yesterday. As expected, this created a fairly wide temperature difference across Vermont. 

On the Canadian border, it was in the mid-30s most of the afternoon, while southern Vermont valleys reached the low 50s. Again, that was in line with forecasts.

Overnight, the front moved north, dropping a few rain drops and maybe some mountain snowflakes.

TODAY

The front is stalling out just north of the border. The temperature contrast on either side of the front is still sharp, but now it's mostly southern Quebec's problem. Highgate, Vermont, right on the Canadian border was at 43 degrees at 8 a.m today. Montreal, just 50 miles north as the crow flies, was at 25 degrees.

The fact that front is so close to Vermont will mean we'll still see a pretty big temperature variation today. 

Right up by the Canadian border, it should get into the upper 40s, to possibly near 50. By the time you get down to Burlington, it should top out in the mid 50s.  The warmest valleys in far southern Vermont could make it into the mid 60s.  For the record, the warm front should get close enough to Montreal so that they get to about 40 degrees. 

Also, the further north you go, the cloudier it will get, too.  

It should be mostly dry until mid to late afternoon, when rain will increase as our cold front approaches. 

TONIGHT

The bulk of the rain should come through during the first half of the night. As has so often been the case this winter and early spring, forecasters have at nearly the last moment cut back on the amount of precipitation we're going to get. 

Northern areas should only see a tenth to a third of an inch of rain, because a small storm riding in tandem with, but just south of the cold front is going further south than expected. That means far southern Vermont should still see the previously expected half inch or so of rain.

The lighter expected rain is a bit of a disappointment. Yes, yes, I know, it's awfully wet and squishy underfoot, this being mud season and all.  But we could have used more snow and rain over the winter. 

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, hot off the presses this morning,  continues to show moderate drought in the Northeast Kingdom and abnormally dry conditions across southern Vermont. 

Vermont had its 10th driest February on record, according to NOAA. Since many storms were smaller than expected in March, the month will turn out to be a little on the dry side for most of Vermont. Overall precipitation during the earlier parts of winter were just, well, whelming. Just kind of meh. 

It's good that rainfall wasn't excessive in March, that would have led to flooding, but a little more rain than we received would have been better. 

I'm actually hoping for a really wet April to saturate the ground before trees leaf out and start really pulling moisture from the soil.  I know we want a nice sunny spring, but as Lynn Anderson sang, "along with the sunshine, there's gotta be a little rain sometime."

COLD SNAP

It's just as good, though, that we won't have a lot of precipitation tomorrow, Saturday and into Sunday, because if we did, it would be unwelcome snow. 

We might see a little snow at the tail end of our overnight cold front, but by morning, you'll see at most a thin dusting of snow.

The forecast for the cold weather Friday and Saturday hasn't changed. It'll be at or a little below freezing for most of us during the afternoons both days.  Lows will be in the single numbers and low teens. That's normal for the end of February, not the end of March. 

At least the sun will be out both days to take some of the edge off the chill.   The real cold weather will end by Sunday afternoon,  when it'll get up to about 40 degrees.

Looking ahead beyond that, next week looks really iffy, as we will be once again near the border between Canadian winter cold and balmy spring breezes from the South. Our next shot at any noticeably precipitation would come along around next Wednesday. 

Vermont: Hope For A Brief Thaw, Then A Couple Days Of Winter, And Then, ????

Hoping this will be one of my last truly wintry views
of my St. Albans, Vermont yard until, well, next winter.

After our expected dusting of snow materialized for many of us yesterday and last night, we're opening our Tuesday morning clear and chilly in much of Vermont. Though it was still quite cloudy in the Northeast Kingdom. 

That cloud arrangement led to a bit of a role reversal this morning. Western Vermont was clear longer, so communities that are usually warmer than most other places - Burlington and Bennington, got down to 18 degrees this morning. Virtually the rest of Vermont was in the 20s. 

Turns out it won't be the gloriously clear day we hoped for, though. Clouds will come in during the afternoon as a weak, completely lame disturbance starts to breeze by to our north.  It'll still get to near 40 degrees, though. 

Good! I didn't bother shoveling the recent snows, figuring daytime sun this time of year would melt it instead. My driveway is now an icy, treacherous mess. It does look like the ice will start to melt today and continue through Thursday. I hope. 

Our lame little disturbance tonight will at most throw a snowflake or two at us. Tomorrow should be roughly a rinse and repeat, with a little sun yielding to clouds.

Those clouds are associated with the next iffy storm we're watching. So far, at least, the forecasts keep trending that storm just to our north. If that's the case, it'll be mostly rain. 

If this forecast holds, we might see a tiny bit of wet snow and light rain with the warm front Wednesday night. Thursday would be dry most of the time, until rain showers arrive later in the day. For now, the temperature range looks wide on Thursday, with highs in the mid 40s at the Canadian border to 60 in warmer valleys near the Massachusetts border.

That range in temperature reflect the usual uncertainty in the storm track. It could still end up going further south than forecast, which would radically change the forecast. The rainy weather would turn into a snowy mess north. But for now, we're going with rain, fingers crossed. 

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

Whatever happens with that storm, we do know for sure a blast of wintry air from Canada will freeze us back up nice and solidly Friday and Saturday. Friday might well be another day, like a few we've had this month, in which the high temperature comes right after midnight. 

The day itself will stay below freezing except in the warmer southern valleys. Same is true for Saturday.

It seems like everything about this now-dying winter comes back to "worst since 2019."  As measured in Burlington, we've had 59 days since winter began in which high temperatures stayed at or below 32 degrees. That is - of course -  the most since the winter of 2018-19, when they're 61 such days. As mentioned, we'll maybe add one or two more subfreezing days toward the weekend. 

By the way, the most subfreezing days in one winter was 93 in the winter of 1969-70.

Anyway, that cold snap will start to wane Sunday. Average temperatures are continuing to rise fast, so whatever happens Friday and Saturday will probably be the most intense cold we feel until next November or December. 

Friday Morning Vermont Update: We're Still Getting Our Warm Spell, But Now There's Complications, Of Course!

The snow surrounding the shoveled paths to my shed
should disappear over the next few days. But will
it all come back later next week? Unfortunately,
that's possible. It's March in Vermont after all. 

Especially in March, forecasts of balmy weather in Vermont are often too good to be true. 

We're starting to see it with our upcoming warm spell. We'll still have some nice, mild days coming up. 

But trends are shortening the length of this spell of balmy weather.  And if these trends continue, some of us could end up right back where we started. 

Deep snow cover in the valleys will melt over the next few days, possibly only to be replaced at the end by a wet snowstorm. 

That's a worst-case scenario at this point, but preliminary forecasts for this coming Wednesday are changing. More on that in a bit, because we're getting ahead of ourselves.

COLD AIR DRAINAGE

Speaking of getting cheated out of warmth, that's what happened in parts of Vermont yesterday. We had a strange temperature set up. 

A few days ago, the forecasts for Thursday had highs in the low to mid 40s in the Champlain Valley. Instead, it was only in the mid and upper 20s for the most part. 

That cold, dense, shallow layer of cold air hugging the ground from an Arctic air mass in Canada had no trouble draining down the Richelieu river valley into Vermont's Champlain Valley,

At around 4 p.m., it was 24 degrees in Highgate, 27 in Burlington and Montreal was at 19 degrees. All those stations had north winds of 15 to 25 mph. But the cold, dense air was shallow. It was still above freezing atop Mount Mansfield. And the cold air at least initially couldn't get past the Green Mountains. 

While it was so cold in the Champlain Valley, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, White River Junction and Springfield were all at either 46 or 47 degrees. It was just strange.

As forecast, rain, sleet, freezing rain and rain hit southern Vermont, but did not penetrate the cold air north. The worst of the weather was down in southern New England. For instance, I noticed Worcester, Massachusetts had at least 11 consecutive hours of freezing rain overnight. The roads must be horrible down there. 

It's the second time southern New England has had disruptive freezing rain this week. Albany, New York was mired in several hours of light freezing rain, too. 

Anyway, back to Vermont and the forecast:

TODAY. 

The mixed precipitation was moving out of southern Vermont early this morning. The north was just cold and dry, with temperatures near 20 or even a little below that.  Forecasters are insisting the cold air drainage in the Champlain Valley will end, and temperature will go back up to the low 40s by mid-afternoon. 

Those temperatures will be aided by a little sunshine north, especially near the Canadian border. More clouds will hang tough further south, keeping readings in the upper 30s.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

An approaching warm front will set off some showers toward morning with increasing south winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. We might once again have to deal with a little more freezing rain early tomorrow, mostly in valleys east of the Green Mountains. It'll only be a little; enough to make the roads a mess but will not come close to creating issues with trees and power lines. 

But any drips and drizzles of freezing rain will quickly go over to plain rain Saturday, which will trend toward just light, scattered showers at most during the day. Highs will reach near 50 west and in the 40s east late in the day. It'll also be windy, with gusts to 40 or 45 mph in the Champlain Valley. 

I'll remind you again that the thawing and strong winds will probably cause ice breakups on Lake Champlain, so I wouldn't venture out there Saturday, or any day after that. I don't want to see anyone disappearing into the distance on an ice floe drifting away. 

A very weak cold front will come through Saturday evening with more showers. There's an ever-so-slight chance you could hear a rumble of thunder, which would be a sign of spring. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

These will be the two nicest days of our warm up. It'll be in the 40s to near 50 Sunday. The day will start cloudy, but clear up in the afternoon. Monday should be the pick the week with highs in the 50s under sunshine. An April day in March. We'll take it!   

Between the warmth and a little bit of rain Saturday and those two days of warmth, we're still looking at ice breakups on the rivers, and the risk of ice jams, as we've been mentioning for days now.  

We're in for one hell of a mud season as temperatures will be above freezing from today through Wednesday. It might get near freezing in some areas on some nights, but that won't be enough to put a halt to the increasing mud. You need a hard freeze for that. 

Even worse, we had a cold winter, so the frost went down deep. The thawing won't easily be able to get past the frozen layer of soil beneath. Which means melt water and such on dirt roads won't be able to drain through the soil. It'll just add to the swampiness of what will inevitably become virtually impassable dirt roads. 

Yes, the frost heaves and pot holes are nasty on our paved roads and highways. That includes the road I live on. But I'm thanking my lucky stars I don't have to deal with a dirt road. Even my driveway is paved!

My condolences if you live on a dirt road. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

This is where we get into the potential changes. For the past few days, we've been assuming these two days would be warm, perhaps record warm. Including sunshine on Tuesday and showers and potential thunderstorms on Wednesday as a storm goes well to our north and drags a cold front through. 

But remember that cold high pressure to our north that made the Champlain Valley so chilly yesterday? Well, another one will set up in northern Quebec. It won't be as chilly as the current one. 

But, it's beginning to look like that chilly air in Quebec wants to squash everything south. So, Tuesday might still be mild, but not as warm as we thought it might be. I'm still not sure what temperatures will end up being on Tuesday. Be ready for anything between the upper 30s to low 60s until we can get that forecast pinned down better. 

And that storm that was supposed to go well to our north on Wednesday? It might end up going right over us. Or even to our south.  That means a cold rain or even a bunch of snow might end up falling. Or it might stay warm enough for a thawing rain. We truly don't know yet, and probably won't know until Monday or even Tuesday.    

This is a really fluid forecast.

As I said at the start of this post, it's March. It's a really unpredictable month. As Vermonters, nice weather is a lot of ask for this time of year. 

At least we'll have a few days of decent weather coming up. We'll take anything we can get.  

Another Below Zero Morning In Vermont. This Weeks Climb Toward Spring Features......Complications

The nice thing about March is the sun is stronger than it was
earlier in the winter so it makes a difference. The sun 
started melting a dusting of snow off my driveway
quickly yesterday, despite temperatures in the teens.
Today will be cold, too, but the sun will make it feel better

Vermont's journey this week out of midwinter bitter cold to what I would call "false spring" is going to be an uneven one. 

On that journey, expect some decidedly not-so-springlike weather including snow, freezing rain, and the possibility that the promised eventual warm air will be taken away from us. 

BELOW ZERO AGAIN

We start today bitter cold, as expected. It was below zero everywhere. It was generally a bit colder in northern New York State than in Vermont.

The center of the Arctic high pressure was a little to Vermont's west most of the night. The air remained calm longer closer to the high pressure's center in New York, so it was colder there.

I don't have the final word on low temperatures as of this writing, but perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York got down to 24 below. It was in the mid and upper teens below zero in the St. Lawrence Valley. 

 Light north winds lasted longer in Vermont, so temperatures didn't fall as fast earlier last night, but started to crash faster toward dawn as winds went calm here, too. 

So far, Lake Eden, Vermont is winning the cold sweepstakes, as they got to any least 18 below this morning. Morrisville wasn't far behind at 14 below.

Burlington was down to 2 below, This isn't record cold, of course. Burlington missed the record low (set in 1980) by a full 16 degrees. The coldest it's ever been in Vermont is 37 below, here in St. Albans on March 4, 1938.  Not happening this year, thank gawd!

This morning was the 16th time this winter it was at or below zero in Burlington. That's more than in many recent years, but it's not that out of whack, even compared to the past couple of climate-changed "warmer " winters.

Seven of the past 20 years have had as many or more days that were zero or colder. With any luck, this will be the last subzero morning in Burlington until next winter. 

So, moving on from the cold......

TODAY, TOMORROW

Expected accumulation of snow from a quick, small storm
later Tuesday and Tuesday night. It's a small one, with
only one to three inches south, less in the north. 

The good news is it's going to warm up a lot by this afternoon. The bad news is "a lot" is still pretty damn cold for this time of year. 

But highs within a few degrees either side of 20 degrees with light winds and a stronger March sun won't feel too bad.

The temperature will again begin to crash this evening, but high clouds, a bit of a southwesterly breeze and just the general air mass warming up will prevent many of us going below zero. 

It will warm up further tomorrow as temperatures rise into the 30s. But it will come at a cost. A small storm will spread another burst of snow across much of Vermont later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Luckily, it will be a light, wet snow that may not even arrive at all north of Route 2. 

In any event, southern Vermont should just receive one to three inches of snow, with anywhere between nothing and an inch north. 

SPRINGLIKE, THEN ICE?

At this point, Wednesday looks like the pick of the week. We should see a fair amount of sunshine with temperatures popping up to the low 40s for most of us. That'll at least melt the little bit of snow we would have gotten the night before. 

At first glance, it seems like the next mid-sized storm Thursday night into Friday would be rain. But there's a problem. Very strong, very cold high pressure will set up in northern Quebec. It will feed low level cold air down into northern New England, setting us up for freezing rain. 

It's too soon to say who will get the freezing rain, how much will accumulate and weather and snow or sleet will be involved as well. But beware, Thursday night and Friday might be problematic. Stay tuned on that. 

NEXT WEEKEND HINTS

It should finally warm up to springlike levels next weekend. It could even get into the 50s.  We'll have to start watching the rivers for ice breakups and ice jams. Luckily, it looks like any rain we might get will be light, so that won't add much to our worries. We'll have more details when we get closer to the event. 

March weather can be pretty psychotic. Things change at the drop of a hat. We'll witness some of that this week. 

Burlington, Vermont Ends Its Longest Freeze In 11 Years

The temperature in the Champlain Valley of Vermont
briefly went barely above freezing, ending a 22-day
streak of continuous readings of under 32 degrees.
It was the longest such streak in 11 years. However,
me and Henry the Weather Dog won't be enjoying
the sunshine on our bench anytime soon. 

 As of 4 p.m. this pleasant Saturday afternoon in Burlington, Vermont, the temperature had risen to 34 degrees. 

That meant a 22-day long streak of below freezing temperatures had ended. This was the longest time Burlington spent below 32 degrees since a 27 day long streak of subfreezing weather ended on February 22, 2015.

Today's mild weather came just one day after Lake Champlain was declared frozen over for the first time since March, 2019. 

This year's streak of cold, freezing days didn't even make the top 10 for longest such stretch. Tenth place is occupied by there years that had 29 days in a row at or under 32 degrees.

The longest stretch of such nippy air ran 51 days from December 22 1976 to February 10, 1977.

It looks like the long subzero streaks are still going on in Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, as preliminary data shows they didn't get above 32 this afternoon. 

Today's thaw, if you can call it that, will seem like a distant memory by tomorrow morning. That tiny little swirl of frigid air diving into Maine today is also driving  a shot of pretty cold air into Vermont tonight. 

By dawn tomorrow, temperatures will be just a few degrees above zero or the most parts, with colder valleys below zero once again. Tomorrow will be nice, but a little cooler than today with highs in the mid-20s.

More thawing - at least in the valleys - is due Monday through Wednesday with highs in the 30s, except some low 40s Tuesday. 

Don't worry, although it's theoretically possible to have another 22 days of subfreezing weather this year, the chances of it happening are diminishing fast. Normal temperatures have begun their slow ascent as spring nears. That'll make it increasingly hard for afternoons to stay under 32 degrees 

I'll have an updated Vermont forecast in tomorrow morning's post 

Long Lasting Cold Entrenched Here In Vermont: Nor'easter Threatens Eastern U.S.

A clear, cold, snow covered morning around my place
in St. Albans, Vermont today. Expect the cold weather
to last a long, long time. 

The cold weather continues, and so does either cursing at, or embracing the relatively deep cover of snow we have out there. 

We're stuck with the cold for quite awhile yet. In fact, toward the end of the week, the chill here in Vermont will deepen further. 

Prospects for more snow in Vermont are pretty low. We'll have the risk of snow showers and flurries from time to time this week, but accumulations should be an inch or less statewide between now and Saturday. 

Everybody's talking about a nor'easter coming up this weekend.  I'm now almost 100 percent sure that nor'easter will happen.  I'm not entirely sure on its exact path or strength yet but it really looks like we in Vermont will just be bystanders as the storm roars on by to our east.  

COLD WEATHER 

First, we'll get into the frosty mid-winter weather that has settled in. The temperature fell below 20 degrees last Friday afternoon in Burlington. 

The temperature in Burlington is not forecast to rise to 20 degrees again until maybe next Monday, which is Groundhog Day. If this forecast holds, it will be the most consecutive days Burlington has remained below 20 degrees since January, 2005, when Burlington spend 12 consecutive days under 20.

At least our current cold wave isn't as intense as the one in 2005. Back then, Burlington ended up with eight days where overnight lows were in the minus teens.   

This go around, if it does get to the minus teens in Burlington, it'll probably be only one night, either Friday or Saturday. Even that is iffy, as forecasts so far have the Champlain Valley in the single digits below zero.  However, people away from the banana belt Champlain Valley have a good shot at seeing readings in the teens below zero again later this week.  

A reinforcing shot of Arctic air will be responsible for the even colder air late this week.  Many of its will not even get past 10 above for highs Friday afternoon.

This core of this renewed shot of horribly cold air will pass by just to our west and head due south to about Tennessee, give or take, by Saturday.  That blob of frigid air will probably bring record cold air to the Southeast. More importantly, the frigid air - basically a broken off piece of the famed polar vortex - is a key ingredient that will create that nor'reaster

It'll be a so-called bomb cyclone, one that intensifies super fast.  Many meteorologists think this storm  might explode into existence near the North Carolina coast.  As it looks now, it could easily create a rare blizzard on North Carolina's Outer Banks and other spots in eastern North Carolina and Virginia Saturday night. 

If forecasts for the nor'easter turn out to be accurate, the nor'easter could blast Cape Cod and the islands Sunday before moving on to hammer Nova Scotia. 

The storm we had the other day passed far to our south, yet many Vermont towns saw a foot to a foot and a half of snow. That storm was fairly weak. but it had a lot of moisture to work with. The air flow with it enabled that moisture to go as far north as Montreal, dumping plenty of snow along the way. 

Big nor'easters like the one coming tend to hold their rain and snow closer to the storm's center.  That means if the projected track of this nor'easter verifies, the snow will miss Vermont.  

The only way we'd get snow is if future forecasts unexpectedly take the storm much further to the north and west than we're looking at now.  We probably have to wait until during the day Thursday to have a  really great handle on the exact path this nor'easter will take. 

People in eastern New England are holding their breath for this one. They got tremendous amounts of snow Sunday and Monday, so it'll be difficult to deal with another big dump. In cities like Providence, some streets as of Tuesday hadn't been plowed yet. 

Providence had just under 15 inches of snow in this week's storm.  Boston had 23.2 inches, its eighth largest snowstorm on record. 

There's so much snow in coastal Marblehead, Massachusetts that they're dumping some of the plowed snow into the harbor. That's usually a no-no, but the town selectboard declared an emergency so it could be done in this extreme instance.  

So, there's a lot riding on the nor'easter. A path close to the New England coast would absolutely bury eastern parts of the region even if Vermont escapes unscathed. 

We'll keep you posted. 

Florida Cold Worst In A Few Years. A Little Snow Thrown In, Too?

In this photo from Facebook, somebody Friday morning
wrote their state's name on window frost somewhere
in southwest Florida. 

Beach weather is on hold in sunny Florida as sharp cold fronts have dropped temperatures into the 20s in many locations, and are threatening a little snow near the Georgia border. 

Temperatures fell to as low as 18 degrees in Cross City, in northern Florida. Jacksonville had a record low of 22 degrees. Other record lows were reported in some cities in southern Georgia. 

Other cities that did not set record lows but still shivered included 24 degrees in Ocala, 30 degrees in Melbourne and Daytona Beach and 32 degrees in Orlando. 

Maybe they should have temporarily turned resort water parks to ski slopes?

A new cold front is expected to bring another bout of chill to Florida starting tomorrow. This one could deposit a little snow in extreme northern parts of the state.

Forecasters have been backing off on the amount of snow that might fall. If it does, it'll only be a dusting across parts of the panhandle near the Georgia border.

This won't be anything like last January, when a snowstorm shattered records along the Gulf Coast and northern Florida. As much as nine inches of snow fell in the Florida Panhandle. 

Still, two consecutive Januaries with snow in Florida would be something. 

The cold front that brought the incredible snow last year to northern Florida last year did not push significantly into South Florida.

This year, chilly temperatures covered the entire state. 

The temperature Friday morning in Miami was 44 degrees. It was not a record low, but it was the chilliest the city has been in three years. Fort Lauderdale reached 43, also the coldest in three years. 

This was enough for iguanas to rain down from the trees, temporarily paralyzed by the cold. Manatees huddled in big herds in bays and estuaries fed by warm springs to keep warm. 

The next cold front, the one that might bring snow to the northern tip of the Florida will give only a glancing blow to the southern parts of the state. It should be in the low 50s in Miami by Monday morning.  

A Vermont January Thaw Looking More Likely; Might Not Last Long, Though

Sunbeams break through the clouds over the Adirondacks
late Friday afternoon as cold weather continues. However,
a thaw is looking more and more likely late 
in the upcoming week. 

We continue slogging through our deep winter cold here in Vermont, either hunkering down indoors or embracing the icy outdoors, depending on your point of view. 

It's a routine we face every winter, though less so in our milder, climate changed environment. 

This winter is a bit of a throwback to what I guess we could consider he good old days when January weather was certainly noticeable. 

The cold we're experiencing now is pretty routine, nothing spectacular, nothing we don't see most winters. 

A little snow is falling this morning in many parts of Vermont, but it won't amount to much. There might be more periods of light snow and flurries off and on through Monday. 

It still looks like high temperatures will be in the teens today, tomorrow and Monday. Overnights will be fairly close to zero. Sunday night and early Monday morning will put most of Vermont in the 5 to 15 below range. 

Another tradition of a Vermont winter is a January thaw. I hinted a warmup might be in our future when I posted in this here blog thingy yesterday morning. Now, a thaw looks even more likely. 

Traditionally, January thaws come toward the end of the month, but of course they can happen at any time.  For winter sports enthusiasts, these thaws are a bummer, but at least this year, we won't have basically a month long January thaw, which has been the case in some recent years. 

Exactly how long the thaw will last and how "hot" it will get out there is still a question. Tuesday is looking warmer than recent days, but most of us probably won't get above freezing. It also looks like we might get some some snow Tuesday night. 

High temperatures will start to get above freezing on Wednesday. Thursday will be mild, too. Finally, a storm will come along Friday and Saturday, when the warmth will peak. Current forecasts have temperatures in the 40s on Friday. It's possible it could reach 50, but we're not sure yet. 

It looks like it'll rain with this storm, but we don't yet know how much or whether it will cause any flood problems. We'll know more once we get closer to that event. 

January thaws rarely last too long. It's beginning to look like it will start to turn colder again around Sunday, January 11. 

For what it's worth, NOAA's three to four week outlook indicates that the second half of January will be colder and drier than normal in New England. Long range forecasts like this aren't always accurate, but they do provide hints of what lies in our future. 

Chilly, Boring Weather For A Few More Days Of Vermont "Winter Doldrums"

Yet another day of Henry The Weather Dog trying
to stay warm. On New Year's Day, he took full
advantage of a patch of sun coming through the
window and landing on his favorite chair. 

 We've settled into the core of our cold weather pattern in Vermont, as we continue on with our shivering and complaining. 

Well, most of us are doing that. I understand that there are some folks out there who live for zero degree cold and gusty, wind-chilled January days in the great outdoors.  

I've just gotten soft in my old age, is all. 

The New Year's Eve weather drama mostly passed us by to our south. Although some northern Vermont highlands did manage hare in the snowy fun. 

Smugglers' Notch reported six inches. Morgan in the Northeast Kingdom clocked in with 5.5 inches. Westfield and Woodbury both reported five new inches of powder

Dramatic snow squalls swept through parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and blasted through central and southern New England bright and early on the first day of 2026.

'Those squalls and periods of heavy snow clipped southern Vermont, especially the upper elevations.  

As previously expected, the far southern Green Mountains had the best snowfall New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Wilmington reported eight inches of snow, Londonderry and Landgrove both reported six inches of new snow. 

Otherwise, the Champlain Valley missed out with most places there getting a half inch or less Most of the rest of the Green Mountain State saw the predicted one to three inches of snow. 

Skies cleared last night, allowing most places in Vermont to go below zero. It's been a chilly welcome to 2026. 

FORECAST

We now look forward to a few days of cold, boring weather. It's the winter doldrums. Happens a few times almost every year in late December and in January and February. 

The doldrums feature constant cold weather. Not extreme cold. Not icy enough to garner news headlines but enough to let you know spring is still a distant dream. 

This kind of weather pattern isn't stormy, either. What snow is on the ground just sits there and sort of ages. But it does get a little freshened up from time to time by passing snow flurries.  

Generally speaking, we'll have high temperatures in the teens daily through Monday. Overnight lows will be in the single digits either side of zero. The coldest temperatures at this point looks to be Sunday night into Monday morning. 

Current forecasts have everybody in Vermont below zero with probably several places in the teens below zero. Again, nothing extreme for a Green Mountain State January, but still noticeable. 

A WARMUP?

For those of you who lack enthusiasm for frigid weather, we do have some good news. That Greenland block/Arctic oscillation weather pattern that tends to keep cold air locked in around here looks like it's going to break down. Temporarily, perhaps, but who knows?

At least this upcoming shift originating up in Greenland will give us a break from the cold. It still remains to be seen how warm it will get toward the middle and end of next week, but we're pretty sure it will get warmer. 

Current projections have temperatures during this mild spell getting a little above freezing most days. We're still not looking at any big storms when that milder air hits, but a few modest things will come through. Since temperatures will be marginal, we'll probably end up dealing with mixed precipitation again. Though just not on the scale we saw last Monday. 

We don't yet have specifics on the timing of these little storms during the warm spell or exactly when they'll come through. 

As for how long the "warm" air  lasts, early guesses are it'll start on Tuesday and last until about next Sunday, January 11.  It also looks like the cold air that eventually comes in after that mild spell won't be brutal. Just kind of typical for midwinter.

So yes, kind of a boring weather start to the year, but boring weather is much better than scary weather. 

 

You Betcha! Vermont December Was A Chilly One: 2nd Coldest Of This Century So Far

Henry the Weather Dog spent a good part of New Year's
Eve day wrapped in blankets and pleading for warmer
weather after the second coldest December in the 
past 25 years. If long range forecasts are correct,
Henry is going to be disappointed. 

EDITORS NOTE: I'm starting the first morning of the New Year with a look back at December.  A rundown of the entire year of 2025 is coming in a post later today. For now, let's take a not-so-nostalgic look back at December 2025. 

If you felt like we had an old fashioned type of December in Vermont, you're absolutely right. 

In Burlington, it was the second coldest December in the past 25 years. Only December. 2017 was a smidge chillier than the month we just ended.

But in our climate-changed world, December, 2025 wasn't all that cold compared to many years in the 20th century. 

In Burlington, by my reckoning, it was just tied for 48th coldest out of the past 135 years. In other words, it was just a slightly chilly but unremarkably cold month. 

The climate change-influenced "new normal" compares this month to the average of years between 1990 and 2020. By that standard, December 2025 was right around five degrees colder than "normal" statewide. 

Nights were colder compared to average than daytime highs. Daily low temperatures last month were six to seven degrees cooler than the "new" average across the state. Daytime highs were between 3.5 and 4.5 chillier than that average. 

In terms of precipitation, I'll give you an oxymoron: It was the most extremely normal month I can remember. 

I say that because total rain and melted snow were almost exactly average for December in the reporting stations I looked at. Precipitation was around three inches, give or take. 

Burlington was just a third of an inch wetter than average. Montpelier was less than a quarter inch on the dry side. Bennington was about a tenth of an inch on the wet side. Rutland, St. Johnsbury and Woodstock were all within 0.06 inches of normal. 

It's really remarkable that rain and melted snow in the whole state was that close to normal. 

Moderate to locally severe drought continues in northeastern Vermont, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. It's been that way for weeks. I don't think it's as dire as it looks. The ground is largely frozen, so water isn't seeping in yet. A lot of precipitation lately has been in the form of snow. That's just banked up moisture for the spring.

Unless the rest of the winter is remarkably dry, I think you'll see the lingering drought easing up during the spring. 

Snowfall was somewhat above normal statewide. I noticed Burlington, Rutland and St. Johnsbury, to take some examples, were about five inches on the plus side for snow. 

If your hat kept blowing off during December, there's a good reason for that. Especially in the Champlain Valley. In Burlington, 21 days out of the month had gusts to 30 mph or greater. Eight of those days gusted to 40 mph or more. 

Periodic local power outages were the theme of the month.

We only had two big storms during the month, both in the second half of the month. 

On December 19, we had a brief break in the cold as a powerful storm passed by to our west. Burlington soared to 63 degrees, shattering the old record for the date, which was 49 degrees. Strong winds blasted through Vermont during the storm. As many as 20 percent of Vermont households and businesses lost power at various points in that storm. 

Another storm on December 29 dumped a bunch of freezing rain on much of the state.  Power was again cut to thousands of homes and businesses. Police agencies throughout the state dealt with hundreds of car crashes and spinouts on icy roads and highways. 

LOOKING AHEAD

January is beginning as December left off. It's cold out there. 

Most of the snow from last night was finished as of mid-morning today. We have a frigid several days to look forward to. 

Temperatures in the teens this morning will fall into the single numbers by this afternoon.  A stinging northwest wind will make it feel worse. Pretty much everyone in the Green Mountain State will see the,peratures below zero overnight and into tomorrow morning. 

Each day through next Monday will feature highs in the chilly teens and lows within a few degrees either side of zero. There are signs we might see something of a warmup toward the middle and end of next week. We're not sure how big that warmup might be or whether it will last more than a couple days. 

There are no large or even mid-sized storms in sight for the next several days. The next chance of even a somewhat noticeable storm isn't due until maybe next Wednesday. And so far, even that potential storm looks kind of underwhelming. 

Longer range forecasts can be unreliable. But the NOAA is predicting an overall January weather pattern almost identical to the one we had in December. That means - if this forecast is accurate - we'll have another colder than normal January, possibly even well below normal. NOAA has equal chances of us seeing above or below normal precipitation. 

A Bit Of Challenging Vermont Weather To Ring Out A Very Challenging 2025

We've got  modest snowfall coming overnight, with one
to three inches in most areas of Vermont. A little more
than that in the mountains. Roads could be a little
slick for New Years revelers late tonight. 

We've had a very challenging 2025, both in terms of weather and especially outside the realm of weather.  

For those of you who don't want to think about anything else that happened in 2025, I'll give you the rundown of the weather you'll see as you ring in 2026. 

Seems harmless, right?   

And for the most part, the weather will indeed be relatively safe. No new ice storms, no floods, no blizzards, not enough wind to snap the power lines. 

You should be fine tonight unless you're not careful on the roads. Or don't know how to dress for winter weather. Because it is going to snow overnight. And Vermont ain't Florida. 

So let's unpack the weather situation here:

Overnight, a small but fairly dynamic storm will move out of the Great Lakes and into northern New York and Vermont. The storm will be able to pick some moisture from the lakes and from those lake affect snow squalls going on out there. 

We had some clear skies in much of Vermont this morning, except in far southwestern parts of the state, as snow off of Lake Ontario is getting all the way to New England.

It'll cloud up pretty fast this afternoon, as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 20s.  You might start to see some light flurries after dark. Occasional light snow will continue all evening leading up to midnight. 

Most of the action will hit in northern New York, where the snow will tend to be heavier and hit hardest around midnight.  

Here in Vermont, it'll probably be snowing in many area as we ring in the New Year.  Not heavily, not all the time, but it'll be around. You'll of course encounter roads that are a bit iffy. Most of the snow in the Green Mountain State will sweep in a little after midnight. 

Most of us won't get much snow, but the timing will be bad, coming right when it'll be the peak drunk driving hours around midnight and a couple hours after. 

Since it will be cold, the snow will blow around easily, so you might have trouble seeing things if a truck passes you on the Interstate. 

If you'll be celebrating outside, dress for it. Temperatures around midnight will be in the teens to around 20. 

The little storm's cold front could stir up some snow squalls or at least pretty heavy snow showers, probably a little after midnight. So take that into consideration if you're driving anywhere after midnight. 

Maybe it'll be best to sleep it off wherever you are overnight instead of getting in your car and driving home.  Or take an Uber, though they'll be hard to come by and super expensive tonight. 

Total accumulation from tonight's little system will amount to one to three inches for most of us.  The valleys of southeast Vermont will probably get less than an inch. The northern Champlain Valley will probably come out close to three inches or maybe even a tad more. Our ski areas are in for a modest three to six inches. 

The New Year will get off to a cold start. Today, the last day of 2025, will probably be the warmest day we'll see in at least a week. As noted, it won't exactly be warm today. Starting tomorrow, daytime highs for most of us in the Green Mountain State won't get out of the teens until next Monday at the earliest. 

Low temperatures each night through next Monday will be within a few degrees either side of zero. If we manage to get a nighttime period of calm, clear weather, it could get well below zero. It's all about that persistent Greenland Block/Arctic Oscillation I explained yesterday. 

It will warm up eventually, of course. Weather patterns always change eventually. Unless we get a surprise I'm not seeing yet, the next chance of any kind of thawing or at least relatively mild air won't come until at least January 11 or so.  

Long Cold Spell Settles Into Vermont After Our Icy Storm

In this map, the dotted red lines over Greenland
and northern Canada represent comparatively 
warm air squashing colder air southward
into souther Canada and the northern United
States. The solid lines show the general 
air flow that is roughly northwest to
southeast towards us. This map is a prediction
for early January. Click on the map to 
make it bigger and easier to see.

 We're done with our ice storm here in Vermont. we're back to our regularly scheduled cold winter weather. 

The gusty overnight winds materialized, which caused new spikes in power outages overnight, but as of this morning, things are back under control. A little over 100 homes and businesses were still without power in eastern Vermont as of 8:30 a.m.

Now, it's going to just stay cold and rather dry for a long time. The cause of this upcoming frigid, bland weather pattern takes us to Greenland. And northern Canada. 

Yes, Greenland again. Or at least the air flow over the top of this huge, frigid pile of ice in the Arctic.  

It's called the Greenland block or negative Arctic oscillation. Basically. a huge, balmy northward bulge in the jet stream, or high pressure oozes over Greenland, and often continues into northern Canada. That's what's happening now. 

The high pressure up in the Arctic means they'll have oddly warm weather. At least toasty by their winter standards. The bitter cold of the Arctic under a negative Arctic oscillation gets squashed southward into southern Canada and the northern United States. 

Sometimes. this negative Arctic oscillation is accompanied by a separate northward bulge in the jet stream over Alaska. This creates a jet stream that originates in Siberia, then races southward through central Canada into the United States. That would delivery horribly unwanted packages of extreme, perhaps record cold to our neck of the woods.   

The incredible, record cold in Vermont we saw in January, 1970 and December, 1989 was brought to us by this nasty, Siberian pattern. 

However, we're in luck this time. Instead of the northern bulge in the jet stream over Alaska, there's a bit of a southward dip up there. We'll still be cold, because, remember, the cold Canadian air that usually hangs out in the high Arctic has been squashed southward to where we live. But the developing weather pattern won't give us access to that awful, gelid air from Siberia.

The end result will be a steady diet of colder than normal weather for us in Vermont. It means we'll frequently have days with highs in the teens to low 20s. Overnights on some nights will be near zero. But at least we should at least mostly avoid those old fashioned, terrible nights when we suffer in temperatures down in the 20s and 30s below. 

Thank gawd for small wins. 

There might be some brief squirts of slightly milder air ahead of some of the relentless parade of cold fronts. But those mild moments only mean seasonably chilly air. The bottom line is we should prepare ourselves for a nippy era of boring weather for the opening days of the New Year. 

These negative Arctic oscillation episodes tend to get "stuck," meaning that they don't go away easily. So we could be trapped in this cold weather for perhaps two weeks. Maybe more. Sometimes these patterns can last a month or more. 

Sometimes, this weather pattern can also mean a lot of snow for us. But that usually happens when there's a northward bulge in the jet stream in Alaska. The jet stream plunges south toward the Gulf of Mexico, picks up moisture, then goes up the East Coast as nor'easters. 

But we don't have that northward bulge in the jet stream in Alaska. So, we'll have a roughly northwest to southeast weather pattern. A  series of weak weather systems that would come through every couple of days, throwing bursts of light snow and flurries at us. 

Usually, this setup does give the mountains unspectacular but decent snowfalls to the ski areas so that's a good thing. There's always a chance one of these disturbances could do something weird and give us a nice big dump of snow. But for now, I don't see it.  

This winter has so far been more rough than we've gotten used to in this age of climate change. That trend will probably continue into January. 

Yes, The Vermont Cold Is Awful But It's Been Worse

This little comic work for this month, that's for
sure. But other Decembers in Vermont have
been even worse. 

 I was among many Vermonters last week grumbling over the coldest beginning of December in 36 years.

 It's cold again this Monday morning, and it'll stay cold until a brief, snow and perhaps brief rainy interlude Wednesday. 

Then, we go back into an extended period of cold. 

It's true that this is so far turning out to be the chilliest December in many years. It's disheartening to go outside and have your face hurt, it's so cold. 

Here in St. Albans, it's been days since Henry the Weather Dog, a native of balmy South Texas, has gone exploring and hunting outside like he enjoys. Instead, it's been quick trips outdoors, then a frantic dash back indoors. 

I can't blame the little guy. 

I guess one way to endure the this cold early winter is to understand it could be worse. It has been worse. And I've got plenty of receipts to prove it. 

As usual, I can point to even worse weather in the past. What follow is a fairly exhaustive list of December cold spells that will have you reaching for yet another thick blanket to huddle under. 

Christmas, 1872    

This was perhaps the most brutal Christmas Day Vermont has seen.  As children opened their presents early that morning, it was 40 below in Randolph, 43 b below in Lunenberg, and minus 41.5 degrees in Woodstock.  

December, 1917

The early part of the month was cold, as temperatures went below freezing on the second and failed to get above 32 again until the 19th. After some relatively  mild weather over the Christmas holiday, the bottom really dropped out of the temperature in the days leading up to New Yoears' 

The high temperature in Burlington on December 29 was 16 below, at 12:01 a.m. From there temperatures kept dropping down to as low as 23 below. Next morning, it was 25 below, and rose all the way to 13 below on the afternoon of the 30th.  It stayed well below zero until New Year's Dauy

Over in St. Johnsbury, the cold was even more insane during December, 2017. The "appetizer" cold waves earlier in the month were bad enough. It was 12 below that year on December 12; then 26 below on December 12 and a frigid 29 below on December 16. 

But the cold on the final days of the month in St. Johnsbury were beyond ridiculous. It was 43 below on December 30. By New Year's Eve, it had warmed up to a balmy 40 below. 

December, 1933

Nobody thought it could get colder in Vermont than Christmas week, 1917, but they were proven wrong in December, 1933.

The month as a whole was quite chilly, but not as bad as 1917. But the final days of December, 1933 made up for that relative lack of early month cold. 

Most famously, this cold wave brought Vermont its coldest temperature on record. It got down to 50 below in Bloomfield, in the Northeast Kingdom.  In St. Johnsbury, it was 42 below on December 30, 1933, almost as bad as 1917. 

The northern Champlain Valley was impressively cold, too. St. Albans reached a remarkable 36 below on December 30. Down in Burlington, it was 29 below December 29 and 30. 

 December 1940

This month wasn't particular cold, but got off to a very rough start.  Most record lows around the Champlain Valley in early December are in the single numbers below zero. But on December 3 the temperature reached 15 below in Burlington. The next day, it was 17 below. 

There are no record lows colder than that in Burlington until you get to December 20, just two years after this cold spell. In 1942, it got to 20 below.,  

On December 4 and 5, other Vermont record lows include 34 in Enosburg Falls; 31 below in Chelsea; 31 below in Bloomfield. St. Johnsbury reached 27 below on December 4, and 16 below in Rutland. 

Christmas, 1980

This was a very similar holiday to the cruelly frigid Christmas of 1872, that I described above. A sharp cold front passed through on Christmas Eve, depositing three to six inches of snow in most places, ensuring a white Christmas.

But that cold front was a powerhouse. By 12:01 a.m. Christmas Day it was 5 below in Burlington. That would be the high temperature that day. The temperature reached 20 below at 7 a.m., and then rose only to minus 14 between 3 and 4 p.m. It got down to 25 below at midnight to set the record for the coldest Christmas on record. It was 26 below on December 26.

Stiff north winds kept wind chills Christmas Day in the minus 30s and 40s.  

Other actual temperatures in Vermont included 38 below on top of Mount Mansfield, 35 below in West Burke, minus 31 in St. Johnsbury and  minus 28 in Newport; 

 December, 1989

By the late 1980s, were were just starting to really feel the effects of climate change. Winters were getting warmer and less consistent. But 1989 proved you can still get brutally cold months, even with an overall warmer world. 

The month's average temperature was 7.5 degrees, breaking the previous 1917 coldest December record by 4.7 degrees. That's an incredibly large margin by which to break a monthly temperature. It was the sixth coldest of any month in Burlington, and the first time one of the top 10 coldest months was in December. 

The cold in December 1989 was not as intense as it was in 1917 or 1933, as the coldest temperature for the month in Burlington was an unspectacular 18 below. 

But the cold in 1989 was incredibly consistent. Nineteen days in Burlington featured subzero temperatures. Every day from December 1 through 30 was at least 11 degrees below normal. Every 25 daytime high between December 8 and 30 was 25 degrees or under that. 

Funny personal anecdote:  I badly broke my ankle in late November that year. During the middle of that frigid December, I was in downtown Burlington. We had just gotten nearly a foot of snow in a mid-month storm. It was freezing cold that day, of course! 

Back then, you had to put quarters and such in parking meters.I couldn't climb the snowbank on crutches, so I gave an expensively dressed, middle aged woman a quarter to put in the meter for me. She took the quarter and walked away triumphantly as if I gifted her a diamond tiara. 

I hope she spent that quarter well! 

 COLD DECEMBER, COLD WINTER?

The records are mixed on whether a cold December means the rest of the winter will be frigid. 

The cold December of 1917 introduced a frigid winter. To this day, the winter of 1917-18 is the coldest on record in Burlington

The winter of 1933-34 was also unusually cold. February, 1934 is still the coldest on record, at le4ast as measured in Burlington.  

After December, 1980, January of 1981 is the seventh coldest on record, But February, 1981 is the warmest on record.

As for the cold December, 1989, things turned around immediately in January.  January, 1990 is the second warmest on record. February that year was on the warm side, too. 

Bottom line, I have no idea what the rest of the winter will be like.