Long Lasting Cold Entrenched Here In Vermont: Nor'easter Threatens Eastern U.S.

A clear, cold, snow covered morning around my place
in St. Albans, Vermont today. Expect the cold weather
to last a long, long time. 

The cold weather continues, and so does either cursing at, or embracing the relatively deep cover of snow we have out there. 

We're stuck with the cold for quite awhile yet. In fact, toward the end of the week, the chill here in Vermont will deepen further. 

Prospects for more snow in Vermont are pretty low. We'll have the risk of snow showers and flurries from time to time this week, but accumulations should be an inch or less statewide between now and Saturday. 

Everybody's talking about a nor'easter coming up this weekend.  I'm now almost 100 percent sure that nor'easter will happen.  I'm not entirely sure on its exact path or strength yet but it really looks like we in Vermont will just be bystanders as the storm roars on by to our east.  

COLD WEATHER 

First, we'll get into the frosty mid-winter weather that has settled in. The temperature fell below 20 degrees last Friday afternoon in Burlington. 

The temperature in Burlington is not forecast to rise to 20 degrees again until maybe next Monday, which is Groundhog Day. If this forecast holds, it will be the most consecutive days Burlington has remained below 20 degrees since January, 2005, when Burlington spend 12 consecutive days under 20.

At least our current cold wave isn't as intense as the one in 2005. Back then, Burlington ended up with eight days where overnight lows were in the minus teens.   

This go around, if it does get to the minus teens in Burlington, it'll probably be only one night, either Friday or Saturday. Even that is iffy, as forecasts so far have the Champlain Valley in the single digits below zero.  However, people away from the banana belt Champlain Valley have a good shot at seeing readings in the teens below zero again later this week.  

A reinforcing shot of Arctic air will be responsible for the even colder air late this week.  Many of its will not even get past 10 above for highs Friday afternoon.

This core of this renewed shot of horribly cold air will pass by just to our west and head due south to about Tennessee, give or take, by Saturday.  That blob of frigid air will probably bring record cold air to the Southeast. More importantly, the frigid air - basically a broken off piece of the famed polar vortex - is a key ingredient that will create that nor'reaster

It'll be a so-called bomb cyclone, one that intensifies super fast.  Many meteorologists think this storm  might explode into existence near the North Carolina coast.  As it looks now, it could easily create a rare blizzard on North Carolina's Outer Banks and other spots in eastern North Carolina and Virginia Saturday night. 

If forecasts for the nor'easter turn out to be accurate, the nor'easter could blast Cape Cod and the islands Sunday before moving on to hammer Nova Scotia. 

The storm we had the other day passed far to our south, yet many Vermont towns saw a foot to a foot and a half of snow. That storm was fairly weak. but it had a lot of moisture to work with. The air flow with it enabled that moisture to go as far north as Montreal, dumping plenty of snow along the way. 

Big nor'easters like the one coming tend to hold their rain and snow closer to the storm's center.  That means if the projected track of this nor'easter verifies, the snow will miss Vermont.  

The only way we'd get snow is if future forecasts unexpectedly take the storm much further to the north and west than we're looking at now.  We probably have to wait until during the day Thursday to have a  really great handle on the exact path this nor'easter will take. 

People in eastern New England are holding their breath for this one. They got tremendous amounts of snow Sunday and Monday, so it'll be difficult to deal with another big dump. In cities like Providence, some streets as of Tuesday hadn't been plowed yet. 

Providence had just under 15 inches of snow in this week's storm.  Boston had 23.2 inches, its eighth largest snowstorm on record. 

There's so much snow in coastal Marblehead, Massachusetts that they're dumping some of the plowed snow into the harbor. That's usually a no-no, but the town selectboard declared an emergency so it could be done in this extreme instance.  

So, there's a lot riding on the nor'easter. A path close to the New England coast would absolutely bury eastern parts of the region even if Vermont escapes unscathed. 

We'll keep you posted. 

Nor'easter Now Battering East Coast, To Worsen Later Today, Monday. Causing Vermont Fire Weather Concerns

The center of our nor'easter is off the coast of North
Carolina, but that big sweep of clouds across
the East Coast is where strong northeast winds
are pushing Atlantic Ocean water ashore, 
causing a lot of coastal flooding. 

 The big nor'easter, as expected, is battering the East Coast this morning, but the worst of the damage will wait until this afternoon, overnight and Monday to peak. 

The highest storm surges in the Mid-Atlantic states and parts of the Northeast are expected this afternoon, and especially overnight and Monday. Major flooding and horrible beach erosion are in the forecast, and damage to lots of shoreline homes and businesses is inevitable. 

Up here in Green Mountain State, the storm will oddly raise the risk of forest fires today, at least for a brief window in time. More on that below, in the "Vermont Effects" section.

WHY IT'S BAD

The center of the storm was just off the coast of southeast North Carolina this morning. The actual storm will only make it as far north as a point off Virginia coast by tomorrow. But strong high pressure in Quebec, combined with the storm, is setting up a long fetch of east winds off the Atlantic Ocean in a large area north of the storm  

That's what's pushing all the water into the Eastern Seaboard, with destructive results. The fact the storm is moving so slowly is a big part of the problem. That means water will keep getting pushed into the shore, so each successive tide is higher. 

 Water won't be able to properly drain from bays and estuaries between high tides, so flooding will keep getting worse until the storm weakens and moves further offshore on Tuesday. 

At Cape May, New Jersey, they're expecting the tide to reach 8.3 feet, which would be their third highest on record. Atlantic City, New Jersey expects a level of 8 feet, the highest since Superstorm Sandy. Atlantic City starts to consider mandatory evacuations at 8 feet, so stay tuned on that. 

The long-duration event means that trouble will last through several high tide cycles. That means beach erosion and coastal dune destruction will be much worse than you'd see in a storm that's moving along at at a decent, normal pace. 

DAMAGE ALREADY STARTING

These two houses in Buxton, North Carolina, pictured
Saturday are at risk of falling into the ocean during
this nor'easter. Nine other houses fell into the ocean
amid high waves last week.

The storm is not at its crescendo yet, and it's already causing damage. 

On the Outer Banks of North Carolina, winds have already gusted as high as 61 mph. Parts of Route 12, the main route through there, are closed because of over wash from the ocean. Nine homes fell into the sea there recently due to battering waves from offshore hurricanes. 

There's no word yet on whether any other homes have fallen yet with this storm, but video showed houses in Buxton and Rodanthe, North Carolina being battered by storm surges and waves. 

Tides reached to three feet above average in Charleston, South Carolina, flooding many downtown and residential streets with water. 

The storm will probably disrupt air travel along the East Coast. Airline schedules are already rickety because the government shutdown is prompting protests from air traffic controllers who are not getting paid. Some of those controllers are calling in "sick" in protest, which is causing flight delays even before you factor in stormy weather.

I'm sure we'll have updates as the storm progresses.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Rainfall predictions in Vermont with this nor'easter are
mostly  unchanged, with near an inch in the southeast
corner ranging down to very little up near
the Canadian border, 

Nor'easters affect Vermont all the time, but this is the first time I've heard of one increasing the fire forest fire hazard. Until now. Things are weird with the weather around here, and this is another example.  

As the storm gets going, and strong high pressure to the north hangs on, east winds will increase, mostly in southern Vermont.   Despite the rain we had last week, it's still really dry. We're in a drought, after all. 

Given how dry it is, those winds could really spread brush fires if they get going.  Especially as those winds are forecast to reach 30 mph or so in many areas of southern Vermont. 

The winds will be a little lighter in northern parts of the state but they'll still be noticeable. The humidity will be lower in northern Vermont, so that will aggravate the fire risk there. Today will be sunnier than first thought, too, as the increase in clouds and humidity is coming in later originally planned. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates the fire danger today as very high. 

Our nor'easter is still expected to spread rain into Vermont, but how much is the question. The forest fire danger in southern Vermont will get tamped down - at least temporarily - starting this evening when rain moves in. 

The rain will spread northward overnight and on Monday. But meteorologists still think the dry, big high pressure area to the north will feed in so much dry air that it will evaporate and overwhelm the moisture heading our way. 

The end result is forecast rainfall hasn't changed much since yesterday's forecast, despite the tricky nature of predicting the northern edge of a coastal storm. Forecasters are going for around an inch in far southeast Vermont, which will be very helpful there. 

Amounts will taper off to perhaps a half inch in central Vermont and just a tenth of an inch near the Canadian border, if that. I wouldn't be surprised if places like St. Albans, Highgate and Newport get nothing at all.  I also wouldn't be surprised if rainfall totals anywhere in Vermont come out different than forecast. 

After a mild afternoon today, it will turn cooler again. Clouds will hold temperatures down into the 50s tomorrow. Dry north winds during the rest of the week will keep things cool, too. At least through Friday. 

After this storm disappears by Tuesday morning, I don't see a chance of any further rain in Vermont other than light showers at least until next Monday. 

. 

 

Nor'easter Could Worsen North Carolina House Collapses As Coastal Flood Alerts Go Up Along East Coast

Clouds near and off the southeast U.S. coast, 
especially near Florida, are the beginning stages of
a big nor'easter that will cause destructive
coastal flooding and storm surges up 
and down the East Coast 

The East Coast is bracing for an early season nor'easter that threatens coastal flooding up and down the Eastern Seaboard. 

The storm is widely forecast  to create coastal flooding and battering waves from Florida to New England. 

Seasonal king tides that make those tides higher than most other times of the year are already causing some nuisance flooding along the coast. 

That never used to happen during king tides, but the sea level is up now due to climate change, so now many coastal areas endure "sunny day" flooding.

Now, this big nor'easter is looming. It will add a ton of water to those king tides, ensuring that much of the shoreline in the East will not look the same next week as it does now. 

 The only bright side is the peak of the king tides will be beginning to pass by the time the storm gets its act together. 

The storm has all the ingredients to cause havoc. It will be slow moving and strong. It will create intense east winds that will shove water into the bays and estuaries up and down the East Coast. That has the potential to cause major tidal flooding. 

The powerful winds will stir up huge waves that will smack into shorelines. They'll make the swells generated by offshore hurricanes this summer and fall look like child's play. 

In some places, the storm surges could almost rival the destruction from Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

The slow movement of the storm will ensure the battering waves will hit during multiple high tide cycles, causing serious beach erosion. 

Forecasters expect coastal roads going under water, severe erosion of sand dunes, structural damage and evacuation. 

Perhaps the most threatened spot is North Carolina, where offshore hurricanes last week caused a total of nine homes to topple into the water.

After those storms, the Outer Banks of North Carolina are especially vulnerable to new damage. Local residents expect more homes to fall into the water. 

The storms last week have already pushed back the coastline in North Carolina a lot, considering it was just one event.  

Per WRAL:

"Researchers with RCOAST, a coastal resilience startup based in North Carolina, mapped the area...using 3D scanners and drones. Preliminary analysis found the average shoreline retreat was 68 feet, with some stretches losing up to 141 feet of beach. 3D mapping shows over wash from the storms pushed sand as far as 298 feet inland"

That means homes that were once safe from storm tides no longer are.  

The nine houses that have already falle  into the water were built between 1973 and 1998 had a combined assessed value of more than $5 million.  When they were built, they were behind the sand dunes and not prone to battering waves. But repeated storms shifted the barrier islands, aided by rising sea levels. 

The nor'easter is forecast to bring several inches of rain to many areas near the East Coast, and that rain will be driven by wind gusts exceeding 60 mph and 50 mph just inland.  But the main damage will be to the shorelines. 

Though this will not be a tropical storm, it will have some characteristics of one. That fact could enhance rainfall and potentially cause even stronger winds. 

The effects of this storm start today along the east coast of Florida and other parts of the Southeast. The storm should intensify as it slowly crawls north. The worst of the storm in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will likely hit on Sunday and Monday .

Storms such as this nor'easter have more destructive power than similar storms years ago because sea levels are higher due to climate change. Shorelines south of New England are quite flat, so a little big of sea level rise can have effects surprisingly far inland. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Unlike on the coastline, the storm will cause more good and harm in the Green Mountain State, but it's still unclear to what extent it will affect us. 

The storm will want to head north toward us, at least for awhile. But yet another strong, dry, high pressure system over Quebec will block it.  The storm will only get so far north, then get deflected back south and east.

That's why we're in this drought. The weather pattern since early August has featured these arid high pressure areas that block storms and moisture from reaching us. 

The early consensus is the storm will have enough oomph to spread rain into at least southern Vermont. How much is the question, but early guesses are the rain could end up being beneficial. Not nearly enough to end the drought, but enough to take a tiny step toward easing it. 

If we get lucky, far southern Vermont could see more than an inch of rain between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday morning. 

The further north you get the less rain you'll see. The Quebec high pressure will be feeding dry air into northern Vermont as the nor'easter tried to send moisture north. The end result could be much of the rain evaporating before it hits the ground. 

Still, for now, up to a quarter inch of rain could fall. That's not much, but we'll take anything we can get.

I'll emphasize these are all educated guesses for now. The computer models are all over the place with how much the nor'easter will affect northern New England. 

The least likely scenario is that we get nailed with heavy rain. Don't get your hopes up for that one. It's possible the north will get no rain, too.

Note that there's will be a huge difference in air pressure between the strong high in Quebec and the nor'easter to our south. 

That could set up the southern Green Mountains for some strong gusty winds toward Sunday and Monday. Nor'easters can cause strong downslope winds on the western slopes of the mountains. That could be the case with this storm Sunday night and Monday. 

The strong winds are expected to avoid the northern Green Mountains.  

Don't Be Fooled By Hurricane Erin's "Weakening" East Coast. It's Now Gaining A Little And Shoreline Still In For A Battering

Hurricane Erin of the Southeast U.S. coast this 
morning. Its classic symmetrical shape and eye are
a sign it has a chance to keep restrengthening for
awhile as it passed by North Carolina. 

As of late this morning, Hurricane Erin has stopped its slow strength decline and is starting to gain wind speed again. 

At 11 a.m, top winds were at 110 mph, which is reversal from a trend we saw Tuesday. 

Erin's top wind speed has slowly been winding down. Top winds were at 125 mph Tuesday morning, 110 mph by noon yesterday, 105 mph last evening and 100 mph early this morning .

The central air pressure of Erin, which had been rising, is now falling, another sign that it's beginning to strengthen again. 

Strong upper level winds and a gulp of dry air were disrupting Erin on Tuesday, which led to its weakening trend.

Those strong upper level winds have waned and Hurricane Erin began regaining its organization overnight and early today. 

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center think Erin will continue restrengthening today, probably achieving top winds of 120 mph off the southeastern United States coast. 

Starting tomorrow morning, upper level winds over Erin will get strong again, so the storm should start weakening again as accelerates northeastward in the open Atlantic far off the coasts of New England and Nova Scotia Thursday and Friday.  

Whether it gets stronger or not, or by how much is sort of besides the point. The storm is so large in size that it's generated a lot of big waves that have already started crashing into the U.S. East Coast.  Dangerous ocean waves are extending 1,000 or so miles from Hurricane Erin's center. 

U,S, COASTLINE BATTERING

Even though Erin is staying far offshore tropical storm force winds - 39 mph or more - extend 265 miles from the hurricane's center. That means places like the Outer Banks of North Carolina and  probably Cape Cod and the islands in Massachusetts will have those winds, even though the storm will stay far offshore. 

A dozen East Coast states have some sort of advisory or warning regarding Hurricane Erin, Tropical storm and coastal flood warnings are in effect for the shores of  North Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.  

The main United States focus is on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, where water started washing over Route 12 at high tide Tuesday - far in advance of Hurricane Erin. Route 12 is basically the only way on or off the Outer Banks.  The overwash, storm surge flooding and huge waves on the Outer Banks gets worse with every high tide cycle as Erin approaches, and will peak tomorrow.

Once Route 12 is blocked, it could take days to clear enough sand and do enough repairs to make the road passable, 

Charleston, South Carolina is another trouble spot, which might be surprising since Hurricane Erin will miss that city by such a wide margin.  But due to sea level rise due to climate change, the Charleston area now floods frequently in storms.

High tide in Charleston today is forecast to bring moderate, almost borderline major coastal flooding. 

Further north above the Outer Banks, pretty substantial coastal flooding is expected in resort towns like Virginia Beach, Virginia, Ocean City, Maryland, Bethany and Rohoboth beaches in Delaware and the Jersey Shore.

In all these areas, coastal roads will become impassable and officials are worried about damage to vulnerable structures. To nobody's surprise, beaches are closed to swimmers. Even before Erin, the Jersey Shore has endured several incidents. Just last week, one person died and six others were rescued amid rip tides in Seaside Heights, New Jersey.

In Massachusetts,  Nantucket officials said all beaches on the island's south shore are now closed because of dangerous surf and rip currents caused by Hurricane Erin. Locals told reporters Tuesday the water was already too rough to safely swim in, 

Rough seas and some coastal problems are likely in Atlantic Canada late this week and the weekend. By Monday or Tuesday, Erin will be in the North Atlantic and transition to a non-tropical system that could cause problems in Ireland by Tuesday. 

 OTHER STORMS

The National Hurricane Center is watching two other areas in the Atlantic Ocean that could develop into tropical storms. 

One disturbance is roughly following Erin's path and could develop into a tropical depression or storm north of the northern Leeward Islands.  Early indications are this storm, if it develops, will curve northward in the Atlantic and miss the United States by a wide margin. 

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At the moment at least, if this thing develops into a tropical storm, it could be short-lived as strong upper level winds wreck it.

But even after those winds break it apart, this disturbance could eventually redevelop closer to the Caribbean in a week or two 

 

Twin Storms Devastated Maine Coast, Might Make It Hard To Obtain Lobster

A location in Harpswell, Maine before the
storms this January.........

As we know, the twin windstorms on January 10 and 13 caused a LOT of damage in Vermont. 

But if you think it was bad here, check out coastal Maine. Looking back at last weekend, Maine took a devastating blow.  

As Bangor Daily News reports:

"High water levels in the Gulf of Maine along with heavy winds and heavy rain conspired with the larges high tide of the season to hammer parts of the coast on Saturday. Portland hit a record tide after nearing one in the Wednesday storm. Gusts exceeded 50 mph in many areas while the massive tide came in over the weekend."

That record high tide of 14.57 exceeded the previous record set during the infamous Blizzard of '78 on February 7. 1978.

Damage was widespread and extensive up and down the Maine and New Hampshire coastlines. Some homes and camps were either swept out to sea or destroyed by battering waves or were swept off their foundations. 

Many homes in vacation destinations like Old Orchard Beach, Maine and Hampton Beach, New Hampshire suffered severe damage from the storm surge. 

In just one fishing and tourist town - Harpswell - the damage is amounting to several million dollars. 

The Portland Press Herald interviewed a man named Mike Chase who reported that his homeland three businesses were badly damaged by the storm tide. Per the Press Herald:

"Paddle boards and other equipment that he leases at Old Orchard Beach Watersports had floated away. His bait and tackle shop had been submerged in four feet of water. A large ice machine from his lobster roll shack wound up on the other side of the pier parking lot." 

Maine's famed lobster industry suffered awfully in the storm. The damage was most acute to the coastal infrastructure where lobster boats transfer their catch to piers, wharfs, bait houses and warehouses. 

Winter waters along the Maine coast are too rough to fix much of the damage. So the work will have to begin during the spring. Most lobsters are caught between June and the end of November, so the piers and such probably won't be ready by the time lobster season begins in earnest. 

Same location in Harpswell, Maine after the storms.

Lobster men and women and the companies that work with them have their livelihood endangered. For the rest of us, lobsters will probably become more expensive and harder to obtain. 

People tried to  have a sense of humor, though. One restaurant at Boothbay Harbor had nearly a foot of seawater inside the business at Saturday's high tide. So workers let lobsters and Jonah crabs out of the tanks and let them play on the flooded restaurant floor. 

 Another issue in Maine is the heartbreaking loss of historic buildings and sites along the coast.  emotional heartbreak. Three fishing shacks that had stood since the 1800s and been the subject of countless photographs were swept out to sea and destroyed. 

The shacks are probably going to be rebuilt because last year, architects made detailed drawings of the shacks and took 360 degree photographs. 

During the earlier storm on January 10, waves washed sand and rocks away, exposing the remains of a 1911 shipwreck. The schooner ran aground in a summer storm that year.

Maine has really been hit hard this winter, much more so than even here in storm-battered Vermont. The flooding on December 18-19 in Maine was even worse than what we experienced in Vermont. The two storms on January 10 and 13 blasted the Maine and New Hampshire coasts much more than along points south.

The January storms will go down in history as arguably the most destructive on record along the immediate Maine coast. I'd say they're  right up there with the Portland Gale of 1898 and Saxby's Gale of 1869.

Climate change is increasing the risk of more powerful, more dangerous storms. As in so many other parts of the world, that fact is setting Maine residents on edge. Sure, they'll repair the damage along the coast. But will those fixes be destroyed again sooner or later? 

Climate change is making life on the New England coast riskier and riskier.  

VIDEOS:

A cabin pulled into the water at Owl Head, Maine on Saturday is battered by waves and a surging tide. As always, click on this link or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Historic fishing shacks dating back to the 1800s shown here being swept away by the storm surge: Click here or view below.