Wild Storm Creating Midwest Blizzard, Big Severe Weather Outbreak; Vermont To See Wind, Rain, Snow, Temperature Weirdness

The National Weather Service website home page
is getting colorful with lots of weather warnings
due to a wild, strengthening storm. This map
should get even more colorful later today
through tomorrow with a variety of
dangerous weather expected.

The big storm in the middle of the nation is underway, with widespread blizzard conditions in the upper Midwest. Worse, the storm is set to cause a huge severe weather outbreak over a wide area from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.  

The storm is still likely to give those of us in Vermont, and surrounding states, a bunch of wind, rain and wildly fluctuating temperatures. More on that in a bit, but first the big picture of the storm. 

BLIZZARD

A huge area encompassing the eastern half of South Dakota, the southern half of Minnesota, most of Iowa and Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan are under a blizzard warning. 

They're already calling it a historic storm, as some places in Minnesota might get over two feet of snow. A enormous patch of real estate across the upper Midwest is expecting at least a foot.  Up in northeastern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan, up to three feet of snow might come down. A few forecasts I've seen call for up to four feet in spots in the UP.

All this is either getting propelled or about to be propelled by gusts that will exceed 50 mph, maybe making it to 60 mph in a few spot. 

South of the blizzard zone, high winds are raking he Plains from Nebraska down through Texas. Wildfires have been plaguing that region in recent weeks due to drought and strong winds. Today is just going to make matters worse there, especially in Texas and New Mexico. 

SEVERE WEATHER

The biggest threat from this storm is severe weather and tornadoes over a wide area. I keep saying "wide" or "enormous" areas, but this storm is so powerful its influence is being felt practically everywhere.

The storm's intense cold front will create a derecho-type situation with widespread strong wind. Some tornadoes might be embedded in this squall line. And a few supercell thunderstorms might form ahead of the cold front to also create a few tornadoes. 

The Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley and the Ohio Valley look to be under the greatest threat today. 

Tomorrow looks like things might get even worse. The action Monday will be along the East Coast from southern New York to Florida. A zone from Maryland to South Carolina is under a moderate risk of severe weather, the second highest of five alert levels. 

Ahead of the cold front, supercells look to develop in the Carolinas and southern Virginia, with the risk of strong tornadoes.

Then the actual cold front slams in, with a very windy line of thunderstorms.  Widespread straight line wind damage looks to be the primary threat from this line of storms, but there could be a few tornadoes embedded with that line of rough weather.  

VERMONT EFFECTS

Though we won't have anything as dramatic as three-foot-deep blizzards or strong tornadoes, the weather is going to put on a bit of a show locally.  

Unlike in similar storms, the warm front coming through tonight won't have much moisture to work with. There might be bits of snow, sleet or rain later this afternoon and evening in spots, but nothing substantial. Also, some of the sheltered valleys of eastern Vermont might see a little freezing drizzle through early tomorrow morning 

The winds will really pick up overnight and Monday. The worst winds tomorrow should be over the northern Adirondacks over in New York, where gusts could reach 60 mph or so.

A wind advisory is up later tonight and through tomorrow in the Champlain Valley with hang on to your hat gusts to 45 or even 55 mph in spots. It'll be windy in the rest of Vermont. But so far, not quite windy enough to trigger a wind advisory. 

Temperatures will warm overnight in the Champlain Valley and that will spread into the rest of the state during the day. Highs should get to near 60 degrees by afternoon. 

I'm not going to get into specifics on when some showers might race through from time to time tomorrow, Just know they might happen, pretty much whenever, But parts of the day will be dry. So enjoy that warmth!

It'll be that cold front which is will be causing so much trouble elsewhere that will really make us take notice. It'll blast through in the evening with gusts of wind, brief torrential downpours, maybe a rumble or two of thunder. 

The rain shouldn't last long enough to create any real flooding problems. Just some rises on area rivers. The usual March rainy weather drill. 

After that, temperatures will crash and fast. By the time you get up Tuesday morning, all that water will have frozen. Many of us will have a little snow on the ground. Winds will crank from the northwest, so we might need another wind advisory for Tuesday. 

Temperatures probably won't get above freezing Tuesday. Maybe the same for Wednesday, too, But it'll get a tad warmer by the end of the week with seasonable March weather.  

Saturday Evening: Vermont Storm Wrap Up And Latest On The Blizzard Of '26

This is what the National Weather Service was predicting
Thursday for our just-ended snowfall 

From my perch in St. Albans, Vermont, I was in a winter paradise this afternoon. 

Bright sun broke through to light up deep, fresh snow on the ground and the tree branches decoratively weighed down by the snow from last night. 

Places near the Canadian border cleared up nicely, while much of the rest of Vermont stayed mired under clouds and flurries. 

A pretty steep temperatures contrast held all afternoon in Vermont, too. While the Champlain Valley held in the low 20s, the Connecticut River valley all the way to Lyndonville and far southern Vermont were in the low to mid 30s. 

Meanwhile, that forecasted blizzard menaces far to our  south. I'll provide a quick Saturday evening update that expected huge nor'easter in a moment, but let's clean up the results of last night's storm. 

The forecasted snow amounts were almost spot on everywhere in Vermont and surrounding areas except in the far southern Green Mountains. There, snow totals were mostly near five or six inches, instead of the seven or eight that had been anticipated. 

And this is the amount that actually fell. Pretty darn
close to the forecasts, You can click on both maps
to make them bigger and easier to see. 

Most places in Vermont got five to 8 inches of snow, with a few reports of snow in the 8.5 to 9 inch range; There was a report of a foot of snow in Warren, but I don't 100 percent trust that, as nobody else came close to measuring new snow that deep.

BLIZZARD OF '26

As things fall into place with what will be an incredibly strong nor'easters, some of the warnings ahead of the storm have expanded. 

By late this afternoon, most of New Jersey was under a blizzard warning, not just the immediate coast that was under the warning this morning.

In New York, the blizzard warning was pushed further up the Hudson Valley to about Peekskill. As expected, blizzard warnings went up this afternoon to southeastern New England. The blizzard waring in and around New York City is their first one since 2017.

Winter storm warnings are also further inland, extending as far west as Harrisburg and Scranton in Pennsylvania, and almost to Albany, New York. Winter storm warnings extend to through all of Massachusetts not covered by the blizzard warning.

And, due to continued uncertainly as to how far north this might go, winter storm watches are up for far southern New Hampshire and Vermont. 

Governors of New York and New Jersey declared states of emergency. New York City residents and others in the blizzard zone were urged to go out today and stock up on three days' worth of food and supplies. 

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani urged residents to stay at home during the storm. 

Henry the Weather Dog measuring the deep accumulation
of snow outside his St. Albans, Vermont home today.
Last night's snowstorm brought the overall snow depth
to about 15 inches. Henry says he is thankful that it
looks like the expected huge East Coast blizzard
looks like it will largely miss far northwest Vermont

There were already about 430 flight cancellations today as airlines moved planes away from the storm zone. FlightAware.com reported about 1,100 flights had already been canceled for tomorrow. 

Most areas in the blizzard warning can expect 15 to 25 inches of snow driven by wind gusts of 50 mph or more. 

In some areas, like New York, it probably didn't feel like a blizzard was on the way as temperatures hovered in the mid-40s under partly sunny skies. But as the storm winds up tomorrow it'll pull in more than enough cold air to create the blizzard. 

Coastal flooding is also a big concern from Virginia to New England as intense northeast winds push Atlantic Ocean water into East Coast shorelines. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Because of another westward shift in the expected storm track today, Vermont's southernmost two counties are now under a winter storm watch from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon. It won't be as bad as in the blizzard zone, but at this point four to eight inches of snow are  expected in far southern Vermont with wind gusts to 40 mph. 

Central Vermont could get one to four inches of snow. A dusting to an inch might get to Route 2 or even a wee bit north of that. 

All of Vermont should have blustery winds Sunday night through Monday night. 

I will have much more on all this in tomorrow morning's post.  

After Vermont's Snowstorm Last Night, All Eyes On The Coast For Blizzard Of '26

Yet another winter wonderland this morning in St.
Albans, Vermont after last night's 6.5 inches of
snow. All eyes on the East Coast as what
might well become the Blizzard of '26.

 The snow was just about done here in Vermont by about 8:30 the morning, with just patchy areas of light snow and flurries around. 

The big news next is something that escalated really quickly over the past couple of days. 

The expected path of the  nor'easter we've been talking about went from well offshore to right near the coast. 

A full-fledged blizzard is now expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. This includes New York City and  probably Boston.

That storm will mostly hit Sunday night and Monday.

I'll give you all the details on that in a moment, with updates on how all that might affect us in Vermont, but let's catch up with last night's storm in Vermont .

SNOW TOTALS AND FORECAST

It looks like total accumulations were in line with expectations. I saw a lot of five, six and seven inch reports across the state. The most I've seen so far is 8.5 inches in Tunbridge, followed closely 8.2 inches in Morrisville.

Here in St. Albans, I collected 6.5 inches. Burlington collected six inches as of shortly before 7 a.m today. 

Also as expected, the snow slowed down traffic quite a bit. The worst problem locally was in Sunny Hollow on Route 7 in Colchester. Several cars couldn't make it up the steep hills in that area, ad had to be pulled out. That really snarled traffic there.

An accident also had traffic seriously backed up amid heavy snow on the Killington Access Road Friday afternoon. 

Road conditions are definitely improving this morning. There are still slick spots, but just go a little slow and you'll be fine.

A cold front was slopping south through Vermont as of 8 a.m. Temperatures were near 20 degrees in the north and in the low 30s in southern Vermont. Since we're getting into daylight and sunshine, temperatures will hold in the low to mid 30s south and rise only into the mid and upper 20s central and north.

But I'm burying the lede. Here's the big story

BLIZZARD OF '26?

The American computer model from this morning
has a super intense storm with serious coastal
flooding and blizzard conditions for areas 
near the coastline from Delaware to New England. 

Forecasts for the coastline from Delaware north into New England have gotten rather  dire and extreme. 

The Nor'easter that just three days ago was supposed to harmlessly head out to sea is now going to bring a potentially historic storm to the the Northeast. Especially along and east of Interstate 95. 

Delaware, the Jersey Shore, New York City, Long Island and coastal Connecticut are under blizzard warnings for Sunday into Monday.

 I think those blizzard warnings will be extended into southeastern New England, too. 

Places under the blizzard warning look like they might receive one to two feet of snow, driven by winds of up to 55 mph.  

The early part of the storm will feature wet and heavy snow. That, combined with the strong winds, could cause some widespread power outages.T

Serious coastal flooding is also in the cards.

All the computer models agree the nor'easter will develop explosively on Sunday and quickly become perhaps the most intense storm in years. It's definitely a red alert storm. 

What we don't know is whether the northwestward drift in the expected path of the storm will continue or not. Which leaves questions about how far inland the heavy snow will get. For now. winter storm warnings for more eight to 16 inches of snow cover New Jersey away from the coast, southeast Pennsylvania, and the Hudson Valley north of New York City

In case the predicted storm track keeps going further northwest, winter storm watch covers Maryland,  a good chunk of Pennsylvania, New York as far north as Albany and New England as far north as the border between Massachusetts and Vermont and New Hampshire. 

As mentioned, this will probably be an historic storm. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Until now, we didn't think Vermont would be affected by this nor'easter at all. Now it looks like the Green Mountain State will feel some effects, but it still doesn't look particularly scary for us.  

The forecast might still change, but for now Vermont's southernmost two counties could receive around six inches of snow Sunday night and Monday. A couple inches of snow might pile up as far north as Route 4.  Northern Vermont would get no additional snow under this scenario

Winds will probably pick up on Monday, especially in southern and eastern Vermont. It won't be anything damaging like near the coast, but gust to 30 mph will add to the late winter chill.

The nor'easter will also probably tug down a shot of Arctic air toward Tuesday. We'll have a 24 hour or so spell where daytime highs Tuesday would barely crack 20 degrees with an overnight low in the single number or even below zero.

And no rest for the weary. It looks like two more smaller storms might affect Vermont next Wednesday and Friday.  

I'll have much more on this nor'easter in future posts as this develops. 

Nor'easter Continues Its Storm Surge And Rough Surf Slog Today

Flooding from the nor'easter in North Wildwood,
New Jersey Sunday. Photo from Chris 
Sowers via Facebook. 

 The nor'easter that has been hammering away at the East Coast was still at it this morning, battering shorelines from the Carolinas to Long Island.  

It's a long slog with such a slow-moving storm. It caused damage Sunday, and we'll do it again today. In fact, today will probably we worse, with even more extensive storm surges, flooding and serious beach erosion.

This nor'easter is truly a coastal storm. Almost all the problems it's causing is right along the shore. If you go a couple miles inland, the storm has been causing unpleasant weather to be sure, but not much damage. 

To be sure, the entire I-95 urban corridor from Virginia to New England is miserable, with soaking rains, gusty winds and chilly temperatures. Winds have gusted as high as 58 mph on Long Island.  

Up here in Vermont, the storm, such as it is, seems to be playing out as expected. See further down for Green Mountain State details.

The real problem today will continue to be the storm surges. From about North Carolina north, today's high tides will be the worst of the lot. 

In North Carolina, the storm surges might not be quite as high as Sunday's but they'll be close. The Outer Banks have been battered by huge waves for days, so even if today's tides aren't as strong as Sunday's, they have the potential to create added damage.   

We've been watching homes on the verge of collapse into the ocean and that might happen today. A green house that's been getting hit day after day lost many of its decks Sunday, and the pilings beneath the house look displaced and cracked. Other houses look just as rickety.  

In a video, the News & Observer likened the threatened homes to "terminal patients."

Streets in Jersey Shore communities like North Wildwood were under water Sunday during high tide and the water is forecast to be even deeper today.  Similar scenes hit shoreline towns in Long Island. 

In Delaware, a voluntary evacuation was underway at Bowers Beach due to the destruction from waves. Quite a bit of damage and flooding is anticipated at Delaware resorts like Rohoboth and Bethany beaches. 

The biggest threat for damage in the Northeast today is along Green South Bay Long Island and Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, where major flooding is predicted with today's high tides. 

Holiday events continue to be canceled due to the weather. New York City's 81st annual Columbus Day parade is among the cancelations. 

Southern New England is on the edge of the nor'easter's destructive, with coastal flood advisories up in Connecticut and Rhode Island, Wind warnings and advisories are in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Things are playing out pretty much as expected in the Green Mountain State today. Southern Vermont is getting a rainy, and in some places windy Monday. The rain is creeping north while weakening. 

Rainfall totals still look like they'll be somewhere near an inch down by Brattleboro. They'll taper off pretty quickly as you head north. Those of us near the Canadian border an expect only a tenth of an inch or less. 

The clouds and rain will keep temperatures down in the 50s today. 

It's going to be a cool week, as brisk north winds take hold especially between Tuesday night and Friday morning. Highs most days will be in the 50s, with maybe even some upper 40s in higher elevations north. 

We'll have to watch things on Thursday, especially north. Those areas won't get much rain. The humidity is expected to get quite low by Thursday. Gusty north winds might well create another big fire hazard. We're getting sick of that situation, but we're stuck with it until our drought eases some.

A little help might in about a week. Long range forecasts are hinting at some rain next Sunday or Monday. 

Nor'easter Now Battering East Coast, To Worsen Later Today, Monday. Causing Vermont Fire Weather Concerns

The center of our nor'easter is off the coast of North
Carolina, but that big sweep of clouds across
the East Coast is where strong northeast winds
are pushing Atlantic Ocean water ashore, 
causing a lot of coastal flooding. 

 The big nor'easter, as expected, is battering the East Coast this morning, but the worst of the damage will wait until this afternoon, overnight and Monday to peak. 

The highest storm surges in the Mid-Atlantic states and parts of the Northeast are expected this afternoon, and especially overnight and Monday. Major flooding and horrible beach erosion are in the forecast, and damage to lots of shoreline homes and businesses is inevitable. 

Up here in Green Mountain State, the storm will oddly raise the risk of forest fires today, at least for a brief window in time. More on that below, in the "Vermont Effects" section.

WHY IT'S BAD

The center of the storm was just off the coast of southeast North Carolina this morning. The actual storm will only make it as far north as a point off Virginia coast by tomorrow. But strong high pressure in Quebec, combined with the storm, is setting up a long fetch of east winds off the Atlantic Ocean in a large area north of the storm  

That's what's pushing all the water into the Eastern Seaboard, with destructive results. The fact the storm is moving so slowly is a big part of the problem. That means water will keep getting pushed into the shore, so each successive tide is higher. 

 Water won't be able to properly drain from bays and estuaries between high tides, so flooding will keep getting worse until the storm weakens and moves further offshore on Tuesday. 

At Cape May, New Jersey, they're expecting the tide to reach 8.3 feet, which would be their third highest on record. Atlantic City, New Jersey expects a level of 8 feet, the highest since Superstorm Sandy. Atlantic City starts to consider mandatory evacuations at 8 feet, so stay tuned on that. 

The long-duration event means that trouble will last through several high tide cycles. That means beach erosion and coastal dune destruction will be much worse than you'd see in a storm that's moving along at at a decent, normal pace. 

DAMAGE ALREADY STARTING

These two houses in Buxton, North Carolina, pictured
Saturday are at risk of falling into the ocean during
this nor'easter. Nine other houses fell into the ocean
amid high waves last week.

The storm is not at its crescendo yet, and it's already causing damage. 

On the Outer Banks of North Carolina, winds have already gusted as high as 61 mph. Parts of Route 12, the main route through there, are closed because of over wash from the ocean. Nine homes fell into the sea there recently due to battering waves from offshore hurricanes. 

There's no word yet on whether any other homes have fallen yet with this storm, but video showed houses in Buxton and Rodanthe, North Carolina being battered by storm surges and waves. 

Tides reached to three feet above average in Charleston, South Carolina, flooding many downtown and residential streets with water. 

The storm will probably disrupt air travel along the East Coast. Airline schedules are already rickety because the government shutdown is prompting protests from air traffic controllers who are not getting paid. Some of those controllers are calling in "sick" in protest, which is causing flight delays even before you factor in stormy weather.

I'm sure we'll have updates as the storm progresses.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Rainfall predictions in Vermont with this nor'easter are
mostly  unchanged, with near an inch in the southeast
corner ranging down to very little up near
the Canadian border, 

Nor'easters affect Vermont all the time, but this is the first time I've heard of one increasing the fire forest fire hazard. Until now. Things are weird with the weather around here, and this is another example.  

As the storm gets going, and strong high pressure to the north hangs on, east winds will increase, mostly in southern Vermont.   Despite the rain we had last week, it's still really dry. We're in a drought, after all. 

Given how dry it is, those winds could really spread brush fires if they get going.  Especially as those winds are forecast to reach 30 mph or so in many areas of southern Vermont. 

The winds will be a little lighter in northern parts of the state but they'll still be noticeable. The humidity will be lower in northern Vermont, so that will aggravate the fire risk there. Today will be sunnier than first thought, too, as the increase in clouds and humidity is coming in later originally planned. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates the fire danger today as very high. 

Our nor'easter is still expected to spread rain into Vermont, but how much is the question. The forest fire danger in southern Vermont will get tamped down - at least temporarily - starting this evening when rain moves in. 

The rain will spread northward overnight and on Monday. But meteorologists still think the dry, big high pressure area to the north will feed in so much dry air that it will evaporate and overwhelm the moisture heading our way. 

The end result is forecast rainfall hasn't changed much since yesterday's forecast, despite the tricky nature of predicting the northern edge of a coastal storm. Forecasters are going for around an inch in far southeast Vermont, which will be very helpful there. 

Amounts will taper off to perhaps a half inch in central Vermont and just a tenth of an inch near the Canadian border, if that. I wouldn't be surprised if places like St. Albans, Highgate and Newport get nothing at all.  I also wouldn't be surprised if rainfall totals anywhere in Vermont come out different than forecast. 

After a mild afternoon today, it will turn cooler again. Clouds will hold temperatures down into the 50s tomorrow. Dry north winds during the rest of the week will keep things cool, too. At least through Friday. 

After this storm disappears by Tuesday morning, I don't see a chance of any further rain in Vermont other than light showers at least until next Monday. 

. 

 

Nor'easter Could Worsen North Carolina House Collapses As Coastal Flood Alerts Go Up Along East Coast

Clouds near and off the southeast U.S. coast, 
especially near Florida, are the beginning stages of
a big nor'easter that will cause destructive
coastal flooding and storm surges up 
and down the East Coast 

The East Coast is bracing for an early season nor'easter that threatens coastal flooding up and down the Eastern Seaboard. 

The storm is widely forecast  to create coastal flooding and battering waves from Florida to New England. 

Seasonal king tides that make those tides higher than most other times of the year are already causing some nuisance flooding along the coast. 

That never used to happen during king tides, but the sea level is up now due to climate change, so now many coastal areas endure "sunny day" flooding.

Now, this big nor'easter is looming. It will add a ton of water to those king tides, ensuring that much of the shoreline in the East will not look the same next week as it does now. 

 The only bright side is the peak of the king tides will be beginning to pass by the time the storm gets its act together. 

The storm has all the ingredients to cause havoc. It will be slow moving and strong. It will create intense east winds that will shove water into the bays and estuaries up and down the East Coast. That has the potential to cause major tidal flooding. 

The powerful winds will stir up huge waves that will smack into shorelines. They'll make the swells generated by offshore hurricanes this summer and fall look like child's play. 

In some places, the storm surges could almost rival the destruction from Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

The slow movement of the storm will ensure the battering waves will hit during multiple high tide cycles, causing serious beach erosion. 

Forecasters expect coastal roads going under water, severe erosion of sand dunes, structural damage and evacuation. 

Perhaps the most threatened spot is North Carolina, where offshore hurricanes last week caused a total of nine homes to topple into the water.

After those storms, the Outer Banks of North Carolina are especially vulnerable to new damage. Local residents expect more homes to fall into the water. 

The storms last week have already pushed back the coastline in North Carolina a lot, considering it was just one event.  

Per WRAL:

"Researchers with RCOAST, a coastal resilience startup based in North Carolina, mapped the area...using 3D scanners and drones. Preliminary analysis found the average shoreline retreat was 68 feet, with some stretches losing up to 141 feet of beach. 3D mapping shows over wash from the storms pushed sand as far as 298 feet inland"

That means homes that were once safe from storm tides no longer are.  

The nine houses that have already falle  into the water were built between 1973 and 1998 had a combined assessed value of more than $5 million.  When they were built, they were behind the sand dunes and not prone to battering waves. But repeated storms shifted the barrier islands, aided by rising sea levels. 

The nor'easter is forecast to bring several inches of rain to many areas near the East Coast, and that rain will be driven by wind gusts exceeding 60 mph and 50 mph just inland.  But the main damage will be to the shorelines. 

Though this will not be a tropical storm, it will have some characteristics of one. That fact could enhance rainfall and potentially cause even stronger winds. 

The effects of this storm start today along the east coast of Florida and other parts of the Southeast. The storm should intensify as it slowly crawls north. The worst of the storm in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will likely hit on Sunday and Monday .

Storms such as this nor'easter have more destructive power than similar storms years ago because sea levels are higher due to climate change. Shorelines south of New England are quite flat, so a little big of sea level rise can have effects surprisingly far inland. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Unlike on the coastline, the storm will cause more good and harm in the Green Mountain State, but it's still unclear to what extent it will affect us. 

The storm will want to head north toward us, at least for awhile. But yet another strong, dry, high pressure system over Quebec will block it.  The storm will only get so far north, then get deflected back south and east.

That's why we're in this drought. The weather pattern since early August has featured these arid high pressure areas that block storms and moisture from reaching us. 

The early consensus is the storm will have enough oomph to spread rain into at least southern Vermont. How much is the question, but early guesses are the rain could end up being beneficial. Not nearly enough to end the drought, but enough to take a tiny step toward easing it. 

If we get lucky, far southern Vermont could see more than an inch of rain between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday morning. 

The further north you get the less rain you'll see. The Quebec high pressure will be feeding dry air into northern Vermont as the nor'easter tried to send moisture north. The end result could be much of the rain evaporating before it hits the ground. 

Still, for now, up to a quarter inch of rain could fall. That's not much, but we'll take anything we can get.

I'll emphasize these are all educated guesses for now. The computer models are all over the place with how much the nor'easter will affect northern New England. 

The least likely scenario is that we get nailed with heavy rain. Don't get your hopes up for that one. It's possible the north will get no rain, too.

Note that there's will be a huge difference in air pressure between the strong high in Quebec and the nor'easter to our south. 

That could set up the southern Green Mountains for some strong gusty winds toward Sunday and Monday. Nor'easters can cause strong downslope winds on the western slopes of the mountains. That could be the case with this storm Sunday night and Monday. 

The strong winds are expected to avoid the northern Green Mountains.  

Thursday Afternoon Erin Update: Coastlines Keep Getting Battered As Storm Begins To Move Away

Hurricane Erin well off the East Coast this afternoon.
It's still huge in size

Hurricane Erin has been doing its dirty work from a distance, as expected. 

It has stayed more than 200 miles offshore of North Carolina on its closest approach earlier today. It's now heading further away, heading northeast out to sea.   

At 5 p.m. Hurricane Erin was about 370 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and booking it northeastward. Top winds were 100 mph, but a weakening trend has started. 

Even so, tides, storm surges and battering waves are continuing along the East Coast. We've been talking about the storm's immense size, and that's what is driving coastal residents batty from Miami to St. John's, Newfoundland. 

The problem isn't going away soon. 

In a number of areas along the East Coast some of the worst surges and waves will hit with this evening's high tide. 

Tropical storm and storm surge warnings were still in effect this afternoon in North Carolina. Coastal flood warnings are in effect until Saturday in New Jersey, with the highest tide of them all expected this evening

Tides at Cape May, New Jersey and Lewes, Delaware are forecast to be the highest since an intense winter nor'easter in 2016, Texas meteorologist and hurricane expert Matt Lanza said,

All the way up into New England, coastal flood, high surf and wind advisories are flying through tomorrow at least. In addition to the rough water, winds in places like Block Island, Nantucket and Provincetown could gust to 50 mph. 

Basically all beaches along the U.S. East Coast are closed to swimming because the waves and rip currents are too dangerous. We don't know when they will all reopen. It depends on when the seas calm down. 

The process might be slow. Even as Erin departs, a new tropical system seems to want to form hot on the hurricane's heels. The new storm will not be nearly as strong or as huge as Erin, but it will probably keep seas agitated all the way to the East Coast. 

The epicenter of the East Coast Erin chaos was - as everybody anticipated - Cape Hatteras/The Outer Banks of North Carolina.  The only way in or out is Route 12 and that shut down  because of water, deep sand washed onto the road and debris, according to Dare County, North Carolina officials.

I haven't seen news yet that the two houses most vulnerable to collapsing into the sea at Rodanthe, North Carolina have actually done so, but the event is still ongoing. Media reports this afternoon described the houses as "on the verge of collapse."

There's also lots of images of flooded streets, and waves eroding dunes or blasting beneath houses perched on pilings. 

The winds weren't too bad out on Cape Hatteras, all things considered. The highest gusts at Hatteras Mitchell Field at 43 mph. Only 0.03 inches of rain fell there. A U.S. Coast Guard station in Hatteras reported a gust of 53 mph. 

Lanza, the Texas meteorologists, also found an interesting and dangerous effect of Hurricane Erin up in Canada. It's super dry in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. 

High pressure on the northwest flank of hurricanes usually has very dry air and that's the case up in Atlantic Canada. The contrast between that high pressure and offshore Erin is producing gusty winds up there, so now the fire danger is quite high. 

Even here in the Green Mountain State, that same dry high pressure, the recent lack of rain and northeast breezes created in part by distance Erin have created yet another day of high fire danger in Vermont. 

Hurricane Erin Update: It Maintains Its Power. North Carolina Evacuations As Storm Surge, Tropical Storm Watch Issued

This afternoon's satellite view of Hurricane Erin,
Tropical storm and storm surge watches just
went up for coastal North Carolina. 

Hurricane Erin continues to cause a lot of headaches and worries, especially for a storm that will not make landfall.  

As of 5 p.m. today, Hurricane Erin's top winds were still at 140 mph, up from 125 mph on Sunday. It was catered about 815 miles, south, southeast of Cape Hatteras and moving toward the northwest at 10 mph.

A tropical storm and storm surge watch were issued late this afternoon for much of Cape Hatteras/the Outer Banks as winds there should reach at least 39 mph when Erin makes its closest approach Wednesday night and Thursday.

To nobody's surprise, evacuation orders went up for the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Hurricane Erin will not make direct landfall in the United States. But the power of Erin, and its expanding wind field, will stir up enormous waves.

Under a Dare County, North Carolina emergency order, tourists to the outer banks were told to start getting out by 10 a.m. today. Permanent residents need to start leaving by 8 a.m. tomorrow.  Long lines of cars could be seen today on Route 12, heading north off Hatteras Island to destinations inland. 

The problem for North Carolina is that Hurricane Erin is already larger in size than most hurricanes, and it's getting even bigger.  As of late this afternoon, hurricane force winds of 74 mph or more extended out 80 miles from the center and those tropical storm winds go out 230 miles from the center. 

Although Erin is generally moving in the direction forecasters have said for days it would, the hurricane will pass a little closer to Cape Hatteras than meteorologists thought a few days ago. So that makes the impacts a little worse than originally thought. 

All these factors mean waves of 15 to 20 or more feet are forecast to slam into the Outer Banks, which would cause terrible erosion, flooding and destruction of coastal homes and other buildings,

The only real way in or out of the Outer Banks is Route 12. Emergency managers are sure the road will be inundated and impassable as Erin blows by.   If anybody stays behind, emergency responders won't be able to reach them. That's why they're kicking everybody out of the Outer Banks. 

In Rodanthe, North Carolina, at least two homes are in grave danger of collapsing into the ocean when Erin passes through. More than a dozen homes have fallen into the ocean since 2020, including six last year. 

Sea level rise and increasingly ferocious storms due to climate change are at least partly to blame for all this. Additionally the land in the region is slowly sinking as well.

There are unconfirmed reports of 50 rescues at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina today already due to high surf and rip currents. 

Erin might be weakening a tiny bit late this afternoon, thanks to some dry air the hurricane gulped in today from the north. But the weakening will either stop, or be so slow as to not make a difference on how it affects North Carolina, or anyplace else for that matter. 

Tropical storm conditions are already hitting or soon will hit the Turks and Caicos, and much of the Bahamas. It'll also eventually get stormy in Bermuda. 

In Puerto Rico, the outer rain bands of Erin were enough to bring winds and rains heavy enough to cut power to 50,000 customers. The Virgin Islands also dealt with gales and flooding Sunday.

Dangerous surf, rip currents and waves are expected up and down the entire United States East Coast and most of Canada's east coast as well this week.  

 

Now-Category 5 Hurricane Erin Stuns With Incredibly Fast Intensification

Satellite view of Category 5 Hurricane Erin this 
afternoon. You can barely make out a pinpoint little
eye in this view. A tiny eye like this is what you'
usually see in the very strongest hurricanes. 

 Hurricane Erin stunned meteorologist and storm watchers today with one of the fastest intensifications ever seen in such a storm in the Atlantic Ocean. 

At last check shortly at mid-afternoon,  Hurricane Erin was churning about 230 miles east, northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico with top sustained winds at a crushing 160 mph. 

Within less than 24 hours Erin went from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds to this 160 mph monster.  Its central pressure went from 996 millibars to 917 millibars. 

Preliminary data suggests Hurricane Erin intensified faster than any August hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean. Category 5 hurricanes are relatively rare, but have become increasingly less so.  

Also, Category 4 Atlantic Ocean storms are even more rare.  If you do get a Cat 5, they usually hit in September, the peak of hurricane season. 

"It's our new reality. Records every year. Every month. Intensification rates beyond imagination. Simply unreal," Florida meteorologist and hurricane expert John Morales said on the social media site Threads. 

The reason Morales is so worried is - you guessed it - climate change.  Hurricanes have gotten into the habit of intensifying super fast in recent years.  Climate change has warmed up oceans to make them jet fuel for hurricanes. The overall atmosphere is warmer than it once was

So, hurricanes like Beryl, Milton, Helene, Michael, Ida, Laura and others in recent years all blew up literally overnight to Category 4 and 5 monsters. 

As CBS News explains:

"Since April, 2023, global sea surface temperatures have been hotter than any period on record, and hotter oceans fuel stronger storms and amplify evaporation, strengthening hurricane winds and increasing the rain they hold. 

Storms that ramp up quickly complicate forecasting for meteorologists and make it harder for government agencies to plan for emergencies."

ERIN'S FUTURE

The fantastic news is that nobody is going to have to plan for an emergency that involves a direct hit by Hurricane Erin. That's a happy miracle. 

Erin should start to curve north pretty soon, eventually moving northwestward, east of the Bahamas Monday, then northward and northeastward far off the U.S. East Coast during the week. 

The hurricane's seeming allergy to crashing onto a shore somewhere great, but it's still a danger to landlubbers. 

The fact that Hurricane Erin is so ferocious and is expanding in size is bad news for some Caribbean Islands, and plenty of other places. The northern Leeward Islands, parts of the U.S. and British Virgin islands face winds possibly up to 70 mph and flooding rains as the storm passes to their north. 

Once Erin is off the East Coast of the United States, wind gusts of 39 mph or more - tropical storm strength, could stretch to 1,000 miles wide, from just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast to far to the southeast of Bermuda.

As it moves north and northeast next week, Hurricane Erin will probably reach its peak intensity soon. 

By tomorrow it will level off, then ever so slowly weaken but remain a formidable storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. We can expect several days of huge surf, rip currents and possibly some coastal flooding all up and down the East Coast of the United States and on into Canada.  

Hurricane Erin To Become Season's First Big Powerhouse. Thankfully Likely A Swing And A Miss

Visible satellite photo of Hurricane Erin this afternoon.
It's continuing to organize very efficiently and is
forecast to become a Category 4 or even 5 monster.

 What was Tropical Storm Erin, struggling over cool waters and dusty skies far out in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, moved into a more favorable place for hurricanes, so the storm obliged.  

As of today, it's Hurricane Erin. Its top winds were 75 mph as of mid-afternoon, just barely strong enough to be a Category 1. 

But Erin is moving into an area that's very friendly to hurricanes. There won't be much in the way of upper level winds that would disrupt the monster thunderstorms powering Erin. 

 It's also going to move over water that is at near record warmth. Warm water is jet fuel for hurricanes, so you're going to see this storm really ramp up. 

It looks like Erin will follow the frightening trend we've increasingly seen in hurricanes over the past few years. It goes from practically a nothing burger to scary top tier howler almost in an instant.

Scientists have been concerned about this trend.  Climate change appears to be making it easier for hurricanes to intensify at warp speed.   

The only hindrance to Erin strengthening is that it might ingest some dry air and dust to its north, which would disrupt its efforts to become big and bad just a little.

The official forecast has Erin with top wind speeds of 145 mph by Monday, making it a scary Category 4 storm,. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets even stronger than that.  Some hurricane forecasters are also saying that, so it could be a Cat 5 before all is said and done.

The great news is that - so far at least - forecasts tell us Erin is going to thread the needle between islands and coastlines, and stands a strong chance of never directly smashing into land. 

The current thinking is Erin will be north of the Leeward Islands tomorrow, well north of Puerto Rico ad the Dominican Republic Monday while it turns north east of the Bahamas. 

A weakness in the summertime Bermuda High seems to be coming to the rescue. Had the high pressure remained strong, Erin would continue west and plow into Florida or somewhere on the East Coast. 

Instead, almost all forecast models take big, bad Erin northward between Bermuda and the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then curving toward the northeast, passing far to the south and east of New England. 

Phew!

We still face dangers from Erin, however.  Not only will Erin be strong, it will be big and fat, so its effects will stretch far from its eye. 

 A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northern Leeward Islands, since Erin will be passing not that far to the north on Saturday. 

Hurricane Erin will generate large swells and rips currents that will make coastal areas dangerous from near Miami all the way up the east coasts of the United States and Canada as far north as Labrador. I imagine we'll see videos of coastal erosion, submerged shoreline roads, dramatic swimming rescues and maybe a few vulnerable beach homes and cottages falling into the waves and disintegrating. 

We'll also have to watch this thing carefully, as there's still a chance it could nudge a little further westward than today's forecasts are telling us.  If Erin does wander a little further west, it could produce at least tropical storm conditions in the Bahamas and eventually the Outer Banks of North Carolina. 

For my Vermont readers, Hurricane Erin will have no effect on us.   

Gulf Tropical Trouble Brews While Immediate East Coast Harassed By Offshore Storms

Not a lot of organized storminess off the East Coast
in this satellite photo taken this morning. But what
there is out there, combined with an easterly flow
and King Tides, is causing damaging coastal flooding
from New England to Florida. 

 While we in Vermont remain in dry, pleasant and for the most part rather sunny weather, right along East Coast it's been a different story. 

The same blocked weather pattern that has kept fair weather high pressure nearby, which has been shunting rain away from Vermont, stalled storminess off the coast has been causing trouble. 

 On top of all that, later this week could bring new tropical trouble to the Gulf Coast. More on that in a bit. 

COASTAL FLOODS/RAINS

Southeastern New England has taken much of the brunt of this. Over the past two or three days, Cape Cod, Massachusetts has gotten two to as much as 6.5 inches of rain from a persistent onshore flow from that offshore storminess. 

Orleans, Massachusetts had more than nine inches of rain within about three and a half days. 

Scituate, Massachusetts is famous for those big storm waves crashing into seaside homes during nor'easters, and this offshore storm brought more of the same to the town.

But Scituate had another big problem to deal with. One of those oceanside homes caught fire.  The strong winds fanned the flames, so the house was destroyed and two adjacent ones damaged. No word on whether the waves and wind helped cause the blaze. 

The Cape Cod rain there has tapered off and the sun has actually been out on and off up and down the rest of the East Coast. But the storminess, and easterly wind flow and seasonal King Tides are causing coastal flooding from New England to Florida. 

Much of this is classic "sunny weather" coastal flooding. Sea level rise brought on by climate change has led to bouts of flooding even when there's not much in the way of a storm to push water inland. 

Screen grab of video of Rodanthe, North Carolina
as erosion eats away at the coast.  Since this video
was taken last week the two houses on the right
that are in the water collapsed into the ocean. 

In Rodanthe, North Carolina on the outer banks, two more houses collapsed into the ocean this weekend as high tides and battering waves smashed into the eroding coastline. So far nine homes have fallen into the sea in that town in recent years, including four this year.  

One of those houses just collapsed in August as Hurricane Ernesto passed by far, far offshore.  Other homes there are teetering and ready to go. 

Coastal flood warnings remain in effect up and down the East Coast today. The flooding in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia might well be high enough later today and tonight to cause damage to seaside homes and businesses.

GULF HURRICANE?

Something seems to be brewing off the coast of Mexico, and that could cause trouble for the United States Gulf Coast later this week. 

There's not even any kind of storm yet, but unsettled weather in the western Caribbean Sea seems like it wants to eventually organize into a possible tropical storm. If that happens, most of the computer models take it north to eventually hit somewhere between Louisiana and Florida.

It's way too soon to figure out how big this thing will get, and who knows? It might not ever get its act together. But the Gulf of Mexico waters are super warm, and that's jet fuel for wannabe hurricanes. It all depends on whether atmospheric winds will support a would be tropical storm.

Since it's way to early to figure out if there will be a Gulf of Mexico hurricane and where it would go, it's even harder to figure out whether that thing will have any effect on us here in Vermont. Bottom line: We have no idea whether we'll see the effects of it here. 

Signs continue to point to a somewhat wetter pattern over us, which would keep the weather unsettled over us here in Vermont during the second half of the upcoming week. 

A storm system coming in from the west looks like it will bring us some showers. There's a low chance moisture from any tropical system in the South could get pulled up this way to give us heavy rains. But the odds really seem stacked against that scenario. At least if most long range forecasts pan out. 

In fact, we might only have a brief showery period late in the week before persistent dry weather re-establishes itself over us. 

Time will tell.

 

Persistent July Heat Broke Impressive Records In Several U.S. Cities

Clouds billow up on July 17, taking advantage of another
in a string of steamy very warm days in Vermont this summer.
Many cities on the west and east coasts had their hottest
July on record, and those who didn't came close. 

 We in Vermont weren't the only ones who endured what seemed like never ending summer heat during July. 

Plenty of other cities, mostly in the West, with some in the East were even more impressive. 

Death Valley, California had the hottest month ever observed at any place on Earth in July. The average temperatures, as measured at Furnace Creek there, was 108.5 degrees during July. That breaks the old record of 108.1 set in 2018.

The list of cities reporting their hottest July include Sacramento, Bakersfield and several other California cities, Las Vegas, Portland, Salem, Redmond and Eugene, Oregon; Spokane, Washington, St. George, Utah, Albany, New York, Hartford, Connecticut, Concord, New Hampshire and Orlando and Fort Lauderdale, Florida. 

I'm sure I'm missing many other cities that had a record hot July, but you get the idea.

Here in Vermont, Burlington "only" managed to see its third hottest July on record this year. 

While the East and West coasts were hot, the middle of the United States was near normal, or even a little cooler than average in spots. 

Within a few days, we should see July data that assesses the United States as a whole. At mid-month or so, we'll know how July fared across the globe. Early indications are July ended a 13-month long stretch of consecutive record warm global months. Even so, July for the world as a whole will surly come in much warmer than the 20th century average 

We do know in some areas, including some weird spots, the extreme heat continued into August. For example, how about a nice tropical beach vacation on the Arctic Ocean shores in far northwestern Canada and northern Alaska? 

Deadhorse, Alaska, right on the Arctic Ocean shore in not normally a tropical paradise, but it reached 89 degrees there on August 6.  That is likely the hottest it's been anywhere in the world north of 70 degrees latitude. 

In the neighboring Northwest Territories of Canada in the far north, all time record highs were set a Little Chicago, 96.6 degree; Fort McPherson, 94.8 degree, Inuvik, 94.6 degrees and Trail Valley, 33.6 degrees. 

Although much of the eastern United States has cooled off somewhat from the persistent heat of July, it's still quite warm in much of Canada as a strong ridge of high pressure in the middle of that nation holds firm.

Summers are getting longer in the northern hemisphere with climate change. Which of course means this summer is definitely not over yet.  

Refreshing Air Arrives In Vermont, But Frustrating Flood Potential Forecast For End Of Week

Forecast rainfall for the next seven days. Anything orange
is three inches or more. Darker shades near NYC indicate
at least five inches. Yellow in the Carolinas is over
ten inches. This forecast is big time subject to
change, especially in the Northeast. 

 As expected, it's much cooler and drier out there this morning, a state of affairs that will last most of the week.  

Clouds are forecast to gradually clear today after yesterday's rain. That rain was torrential in spots, nearly non-existent in others. 

Burlington received just 0.02 inches of rain. Meanwhile, a stripe of Addison County was under a flood warning for a time last evening as a patch of torrents passed through.

 Luckily, I've so far seen no reports of any serious damage in that neck of the woods. 

Now that we're done with the storms and oppressive weather,  there is pretty much no sign of any return to high temperatures combined with high humidity for the foreseeable future, so all good, right?

Unfortunately, no. Or at least maybe not. As I've mentioned a couple times already in previous posts, there's big time flood potential later in the week up and down the Eastern Seaboard. 

We don't know yet whether that includes flood-weary Vermont. 

DEBBY DANGER

Tropical Storm Debby so far is pretty much following forecasts, meandering around the Southeast, dumping incredible amounts of rain that is and will cause historic flooding in swaths of Georgia and the Carolinas. 

It's about to limp its way from Georgia and park itself just offshore. Since the center will be a little off the coast, Debby will have a chance to re-strengthen for awhile. All that time, it will be slamming huge amounts of rain into Georgia and South Carolina. 

It'll take until about late Friday or Saturday for Debby or its remnants to become "unstuck" and head on off to the northeast at a decent pace. 

During this time, we'll have that cool high pressure near us, keeping us partly to mostly sunny through Thursday, though clouds might be thicker south. 

Meanwhile another storm will be coming in from the west. We know the combination of that system from the west and Debby will cause a dangerous flood situation up and down the East Coast.  What we don't know is exactly where that will happen. The question marks are biggest in New England. 

This is a situation for a classic set up know as a Predecessor Rain Event or PRE.  Often, ahead of a tropical system, an area of torrential rain will develop well to the north and west of the tropical storm. It often but not always forms in an area that will eventually get hit by the actual tropical storm or hurricane.

A PRE can develop as much as 600 miles north or west of a tropical storm, and they're really hard to forecast. That's why meteorologists are still hemming and hawing about where flooding rains will strike at the end of the week. 

VERMONT QUESTIONS

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington points out in its forecast discussion this morning, computer  models are still all over the place when it comes to where the heavy rain sets up in New England toward Friday and Saturday.

The models are sort of leaning toward the heaviest rain focusing on southern Vermont, but there is absolutely no unanimity among the computer models, and various runs of those models. 

 Some of them have a  best case scenario (for us, anyway) of having almost no rain over central and northern Vermont and bringing the bad stuff to southern New England.  

Other models have a worst case scenario of dumping inches of torrential rains smack dab over the middle of the Green Mountain State.  

Other computer models have something in between those two extremes.   

Obviously, we want to avoid the worse case scenario, especially after the kind of summer we've had so far. Some Vermont communities have had serious flooding five times in the past year.  We've had more than our fill. 

To get forecast clarity, we'll have to wait until we see how Debby's path evolves, and how Debby and its moisture interact with that storm system coming in from the west. 

Hopefully, we'll start to get a clear picture by Thursday, so that we have a little time to prepare for flooding, if that's the direction we're headed. We just don't know. 

Vermont (Mostly) Caught A Big Break Today, Not So In "Debby Zone" And Elsewhere

Hard to see in the photo, but a fairly drenching rain
began in St. Albans, Vermont late this afternoon.
The threat of severe storms and flash flooding,
however, has diminished to almost zero in central
and northern Vermont. 

 A weak disturbance running out ahead of our big, long awaited cold front saved the day in central and northern Vermont.  

Sure, it was overcast with areas of light rain pretty much all day, but that's much better than the flash flooding and severe storms we feared.

The disturbance and its light rain stabilized the atmosphere, so wild storms couldn't get going. 

Except in far southern Vermont, where a severe thunderstorm was heading into Bennington County as I write this around 6 p.m. That nasty storm looks like it will eventually make it into Windham County before exiting into southwest New Hampshire. 

It still looks like the rain might pick up some in central and northern Vermont this evening as the actual cold front comes in. 

Believe it or not, a few isolated spots in northwest Vermont could use the rain.  For instance, the past week's storms have avoided my place in St. Albans, where we had only 0.35 inches of rain in the ten days ending yesterday. 

We got precious little so far today, so I hope a band of heavier rain northwest of here holds together. Rain did seem to be picking up a bit as of 6 p.m. 

In any event, cool, generally dry weather is due tomorrow through Thursday. 

Vermont might not be entirely out of the rain and flood woods quite yet, though. We are still watching the possibility on Friday and Saturday of tropical moisture from Debby interacting with an another storm system coming in from the west. 

Worst case scenario is yet another nasty flood, but we're not ready to go there yet. It could still be a big huge nothingburger for us. There's already a level 2 out of four flood risk alert for Friday for all of the East Coast, including all of Vermont. So it bears watching.

ROUGH STUFF ELSEWHERE

Areas outside Vermont - places from New York and southern New England to Florida - either dealt with or bracing for rough weather.  

Screen grab of a tornado ripping through downtown
Buffalo, New York of all places today. 

A EF-1 tornado packing 90 mph winds swept through downtown Buffalo, New York of all places this afternoon, damaging buildings and trees and blocking streets. 

Meanwhile, former Hurricane Debby, now a tropical storm, has already caused four fatalities in Florida. The storm's forward motion, as expected, has slowed down to a crawl, setting the stage for catastrophic flooding in northern Florida, parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

Among the places where concern is highest is Charleston, South Carolina.  Ocean storm surges caused by Debby will help block river water arriving from inland from going out to sea, instead backing it up in Charleston. 

Over the next week or less, up to 30 inches of rain could fall in South Carolina. Up to 10 inches might fall during that time from Virginia to southern New England. Flood watches are already in effect as far north as Connecticut. 

Heat Waves This Week Are/Will Be One For The Record Books, Especially Out West

The 6 to 10 day outlook favors warmer than normal
temperatures across the Lower 48. This covers July
12-16. The darker the red, the greater the odds
of above normal temperatures. If you want 
cool weather, go to Alaska

The Desert Southwest, Las Vegas, and valleys in California and Oregon away from the coast get hot every summer, but this is ridiculous.   

The East Coast has been baking as well, even up here in Vermont. Long term prospects have heat reigning in most of the nation through most of the rest of the month.

More on that in a bit, but first, the western heat wave is withering and wowing people all over that region.  

RECORD HIGHS

The intense, long lasting heat wave in the west began in earnest Friday and only intensified over the weekend. has begun, and all time record highs in some cities could well fall. Some already did. 

On Friday, Palm Springs, California reached 124 degrees, setting a new all time high there.  Blythe, California reached 123 degrees, tying the record for the hottest reading in the month of July. 

Several other cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Redding, in north central California, reached 119 degrees Saturday. breaking their all-time record for the date. 

  Ukiah, in northwestern California, tied its all time high temperature Saturday, reaching 117 degrees. That also beat the record high for the date by a whopping nine degrees. 

More all time record highs could easily fall in various western cities between today and Thursday.  

 The world record for hottest temperature recorded on Earth is 134 degrees, set in Death Valley back in 1913.

However, experts say that measurement is suspect due to an improper placement of a thermometer. The actual world record is probably actually 130.

That said, there's a decent chance that between today and Thursday, Furnace Creek in Death Valley could reach 130 degrees.    It was 128 degrees in Furnace Creek Saturday, a record high for the date. 

Also, each day today through Thursday has the potential to at least tie the all-time record high in Las Vegas, which is 117 degrees. 

All heat waves are dangerous, but this one has meteorologists really sounding the alarm.

"It cannot be stressed enough that is is an exceptionally dangerous and lethal situation....It may not seem so if you live near the coast, but an event of this scale, magnitude and longevity will likely rival anything we've seen in the last 18 years for inland areas," wrote the National Weather Service office in San Francisco. 

The hot conditions are extending even up into the Sierra Nevada mountains, which are better known for epic snowstorms, not heat waves.  A rare heat advisory is in effect through Friday for areas around Lake Tahoe.  

A more extended outlook covering July 14-20
doesn't really release the nation from hot weather.
Best odds of hot weather are in the Northern Rockies
with high chances across most of the nation's
northern tier, and Florida. 

Officials are warning of all kinds of deep trouble associated with the heat wave, including hot weather related deaths, rolling blackouts and wildfires. Two dozen wildfires were already burning in California as of Friday. 

EASTERN/NATIONAL HEAT

Meanwhile, it's hot in the East, too.  Raleigh, North Carolina on Friday reached 106 degrees, setting a new mark for the all time hottest temperature on record there. Temperatures of 100 degrees reached as far north as Maryland Friday.  

The National Weather Service Heat Risk map forecasts large areas of major and extreme heat impacts in the western third of the United States through at least next Friday. On the East Coast, widespread major impacts are forecast through Tuesday. 

After that, the heat in the East should temporarily ease in the second half of the week before possibly re-surging again 

Major impacts means.the heat endangers everyone who has not adequate access to cool rooms and hydration.  Extreme impacts are considered rare and will impact health systems, heat-sensitive industry and infrastructure.  

As we well know, the heat has invaded Vermont.  It reached 90 degrees both Thursday and Friday in Burlington, so now the total number of 90 degree days so far this year is seven - about average for an entire summer.

There's a low, but not zero chance Burlington could make it to 90 degrees again today, and a somewhat better chance of achieving that level Monday and Tuesday. Rain and clouds should hold temperatures down toward Wednesday (But that rain might cause other trouble. More on that in another post later today).

The outlook beyond this coming week in terms of heat is not great here in Vermont, or almost anywhere else in the nation for that matter.  Long range forecasts - always somewhat iffy I know - suggest the two heat domes in the West and East might sort of merge to make the whole nation roast starting in about a week.

The trend toward above normal temperatures in mid-July comes at the climatological peak of summer, so any hot spells would be especially so.

As a reminder, we know that heat waves happen every summer. The problem is the new extremes we've been seeing in recent years in the United States and globally.  Climate change is tilting the odds of turning regular old heat waves into torturous, dangerous new all time record highs. 

The hotter it gets, the the more persistent the heat, the more dangerous it gets. Climate change increases the odds that we'll get summers like the one that seems to be underway right now. 

Not every summer going forward will be super hot. But the general trend because of our greenhouse gas emissions will continue to be more and more all-time record heat. 

That's especially dangerous in areas where heat waves might not be as historically common. If it's 100 degrees in Phoenix, that's bad, but for them, manageable. Up here in the Great No Longer So White North, it's a recipe for disaster.