Hurricane Erin To Become Season's First Big Powerhouse. Thankfully Likely A Swing And A Miss

Visible satellite photo of Hurricane Erin this afternoon.
It's continuing to organize very efficiently and is
forecast to become a Category 4 or even 5 monster.

 What was Tropical Storm Erin, struggling over cool waters and dusty skies far out in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, moved into a more favorable place for hurricanes, so the storm obliged.  

As of today, it's Hurricane Erin. Its top winds were 75 mph as of mid-afternoon, just barely strong enough to be a Category 1. 

But Erin is moving into an area that's very friendly to hurricanes. There won't be much in the way of upper level winds that would disrupt the monster thunderstorms powering Erin. 

 It's also going to move over water that is at near record warmth. Warm water is jet fuel for hurricanes, so you're going to see this storm really ramp up. 

It looks like Erin will follow the frightening trend we've increasingly seen in hurricanes over the past few years. It goes from practically a nothing burger to scary top tier howler almost in an instant.

Scientists have been concerned about this trend.  Climate change appears to be making it easier for hurricanes to intensify at warp speed.   

The only hindrance to Erin strengthening is that it might ingest some dry air and dust to its north, which would disrupt its efforts to become big and bad just a little.

The official forecast has Erin with top wind speeds of 145 mph by Monday, making it a scary Category 4 storm,. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets even stronger than that.  Some hurricane forecasters are also saying that, so it could be a Cat 5 before all is said and done.

The great news is that - so far at least - forecasts tell us Erin is going to thread the needle between islands and coastlines, and stands a strong chance of never directly smashing into land. 

The current thinking is Erin will be north of the Leeward Islands tomorrow, well north of Puerto Rico ad the Dominican Republic Monday while it turns north east of the Bahamas. 

A weakness in the summertime Bermuda High seems to be coming to the rescue. Had the high pressure remained strong, Erin would continue west and plow into Florida or somewhere on the East Coast. 

Instead, almost all forecast models take big, bad Erin northward between Bermuda and the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then curving toward the northeast, passing far to the south and east of New England. 

Phew!

We still face dangers from Erin, however.  Not only will Erin be strong, it will be big and fat, so its effects will stretch far from its eye. 

 A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northern Leeward Islands, since Erin will be passing not that far to the north on Saturday. 

Hurricane Erin will generate large swells and rips currents that will make coastal areas dangerous from near Miami all the way up the east coasts of the United States and Canada as far north as Labrador. I imagine we'll see videos of coastal erosion, submerged shoreline roads, dramatic swimming rescues and maybe a few vulnerable beach homes and cottages falling into the waves and disintegrating. 

We'll also have to watch this thing carefully, as there's still a chance it could nudge a little further westward than today's forecasts are telling us.  If Erin does wander a little further west, it could produce at least tropical storm conditions in the Bahamas and eventually the Outer Banks of North Carolina. 

For my Vermont readers, Hurricane Erin will have no effect on us.   

Gulf Tropical Trouble Brews While Immediate East Coast Harassed By Offshore Storms

Not a lot of organized storminess off the East Coast
in this satellite photo taken this morning. But what
there is out there, combined with an easterly flow
and King Tides, is causing damaging coastal flooding
from New England to Florida. 

 While we in Vermont remain in dry, pleasant and for the most part rather sunny weather, right along East Coast it's been a different story. 

The same blocked weather pattern that has kept fair weather high pressure nearby, which has been shunting rain away from Vermont, stalled storminess off the coast has been causing trouble. 

 On top of all that, later this week could bring new tropical trouble to the Gulf Coast. More on that in a bit. 

COASTAL FLOODS/RAINS

Southeastern New England has taken much of the brunt of this. Over the past two or three days, Cape Cod, Massachusetts has gotten two to as much as 6.5 inches of rain from a persistent onshore flow from that offshore storminess. 

Orleans, Massachusetts had more than nine inches of rain within about three and a half days. 

Scituate, Massachusetts is famous for those big storm waves crashing into seaside homes during nor'easters, and this offshore storm brought more of the same to the town.

But Scituate had another big problem to deal with. One of those oceanside homes caught fire.  The strong winds fanned the flames, so the house was destroyed and two adjacent ones damaged. No word on whether the waves and wind helped cause the blaze. 

The Cape Cod rain there has tapered off and the sun has actually been out on and off up and down the rest of the East Coast. But the storminess, and easterly wind flow and seasonal King Tides are causing coastal flooding from New England to Florida. 

Much of this is classic "sunny weather" coastal flooding. Sea level rise brought on by climate change has led to bouts of flooding even when there's not much in the way of a storm to push water inland. 

Screen grab of video of Rodanthe, North Carolina
as erosion eats away at the coast.  Since this video
was taken last week the two houses on the right
that are in the water collapsed into the ocean. 

In Rodanthe, North Carolina on the outer banks, two more houses collapsed into the ocean this weekend as high tides and battering waves smashed into the eroding coastline. So far nine homes have fallen into the sea in that town in recent years, including four this year.  

One of those houses just collapsed in August as Hurricane Ernesto passed by far, far offshore.  Other homes there are teetering and ready to go. 

Coastal flood warnings remain in effect up and down the East Coast today. The flooding in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia might well be high enough later today and tonight to cause damage to seaside homes and businesses.

GULF HURRICANE?

Something seems to be brewing off the coast of Mexico, and that could cause trouble for the United States Gulf Coast later this week. 

There's not even any kind of storm yet, but unsettled weather in the western Caribbean Sea seems like it wants to eventually organize into a possible tropical storm. If that happens, most of the computer models take it north to eventually hit somewhere between Louisiana and Florida.

It's way too soon to figure out how big this thing will get, and who knows? It might not ever get its act together. But the Gulf of Mexico waters are super warm, and that's jet fuel for wannabe hurricanes. It all depends on whether atmospheric winds will support a would be tropical storm.

Since it's way to early to figure out if there will be a Gulf of Mexico hurricane and where it would go, it's even harder to figure out whether that thing will have any effect on us here in Vermont. Bottom line: We have no idea whether we'll see the effects of it here. 

Signs continue to point to a somewhat wetter pattern over us, which would keep the weather unsettled over us here in Vermont during the second half of the upcoming week. 

A storm system coming in from the west looks like it will bring us some showers. There's a low chance moisture from any tropical system in the South could get pulled up this way to give us heavy rains. But the odds really seem stacked against that scenario. At least if most long range forecasts pan out. 

In fact, we might only have a brief showery period late in the week before persistent dry weather re-establishes itself over us. 

Time will tell.

 

Sunday In Vermont: Snow Squalls Are Today's Hazard, But Unlike Rest Of U.S. Wet Get Break From Extreme Weather

A snow squall approaching St. Albans, Vermont in
February 2022 looked like a wall of snow
approaching. Similar scenes are possibly today
in parts of Vermont. 

 In the "It's always something" department, Vermont has one more hazardous day to get through today with the weather. 

The danger today will be out on the roads.

One cold front has come through. It's breezy and chillier, with snow showers around. Nothing wild .A second cold front is coming through Vermont today, and that looks like it has enough oomph to set off some snow squalls. 

Snow squall warnings were already in effect for parts of Pennsylvania this morning. 

There's a decent chance parts of Vermont might go under such warnings late this morning and afternoon. The snow squalls can be quite powerful. There's a low but not zero chance that some of the squalls today could create lightning and relatively rare thundersnow in parts of the Green Mountain State.

Snow squalls are dangerous because they abruptly turn visibility on the roads from just fine to zero. Road conditions also go from just fine to awful. That's a recipe for highway crashes. Some of the worst pileups on U.S. Interstate highways have been in snow squalls. 

If you're out driving today and go you hear a snow squall warning, and if you can, just find a way to get off the Interstate or busy highway and wait it out. Snow squalls rarely last longer than a half hour. Of course the roads will be iffy after the squall passes, but at least you won't be driving blind.

Or better yet, just stay home today. 

A February, 2022 snow squall in St. Albans,
Vermont cuts visibility to near zero. About 20 seconds
before this photo was taken, visibility was fine,
showing how quickly snow squalls can change things.

These squalls won't cause a huge amount of accumulation - probably a half inch to three inches at most. 

Another interesting thing going on this morning is that one of those lake effect snow bands coming off Lake Ontario is so powerful that it made it all the way into far northern Vermont and to the southeastern corner of Quebec.

Here in St. Albans, I caught the edge of it briefly and got one inch of snow. The snow band has since moved north. 

EXTREME WEATHER

That powerful snow squall from Lake Ontario I mentioned is part of a continuation of the extreme weather much of the United States s either dealing with or picking up the pieces in the aftermath.

Vermont is more in the picking up the pieces mode than bracing for extreme weather. The real bad stuff appears like it wants to give Vermont a break for awhile. 

As of 8:30 a.m. Sunday, about 3,000 homes and businesses were without power in Vermont, mostly in Rutland County.  Perhaps the most dramatic instance of damage yesterday came in Richmond, where the metal roof of a house blew off.

Neighbors swarmed the house during the day and pretty much replaced it by nightfall for the elderly woman living there, WPTZ reported. 

Video of the strong winds near Richmond, Vermont is at the bottom of this post.

Although today will be gusty, we won't have any winds strong enough to cause further damage. 

Saturday's storm was far more destructive in New Hampshire and Maine. Serious flooding hit Hampton Beach, New Hampshire for the second time in a week, and structures were destroyed by pounding waves and high tides in Maine. 

Blasts of Arctic air - belatedly the first real cold outbreak of the winter - is causing the continued extreme conditions this week. But not really here in Vermont

The frigid air is taking what the I, and the National Weather Service office in South Burlington call the "scenic route."  

Radar from the National Weather Service office
in South Burlington this morning shows a lake
effect snow band extending all the way from
Lake Ontario across northwest Vermont and 
southern Quebec.

It plunged southward into Montana and North Dakota, and kept going south and east, freezing the southern United States - or is about to.  

One cold blast has already hit, dropping temperatures into the 40s below zero in Montana and siccing a blizzard in the Midwest. 

Then that cold air heads northeastward from the Midwest towards us. This indirect route gives the Arctic air a chance to warm up a little bit. By the time it gets here, we end up being kinda cold, but not OH MY GOD awful.

This arrangement is also helping to create strong west to southwest winds off of Lakes Erie and Ontario, which is why western New York is getting slammed by those lake effect storms. 

The path of the cold air seems to want to suppress storms to our south this week. One on Tuesday will go out to sea well south of Vermont, but a separate system will give us light snow that day.

Another storm Friday could hit us, but early indications are that one, too will go out to sea.

Meanwhile, those storms will unleash cold, snow and ice on parts of the South this week. 

Back here in Vermont, the coldest weather looks like it will arrive by next weekend, and we might see our first subzero cold on the winter. A very late start to that idea.

The cold across the nation looks like it will be rather short-lived, too.  A warmup is about to start in the Rockies, and that should slowly move eastward across the U.S. reaching us here in New England in perhaps seven or eight days. 

VIDEO

Strong winds sweep through the Jonesville section of Richmond, Vermont Saturday.  The downslope winds can erode clouds near the mountain slopes where they originate. It happened during this storm, creating a rainbow amid the chaos. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Odd, Strong Storm To Whack Florida Saturday, Hit Us In Vermont By Monday

Just one of many depictions of an expected strong
storm in the eastern United States Monday morning.
The strength and position of this could change.
But it will slap Florida with severe weather this
weekend, and could cause strong winds and
heavy rain here in Vermont Monday. 

 Strong, non-tropical storms usually don't hit Florida. Sure, they have cold fronts, sometimes even winter time severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and floods. 

However, this one is basically a nor'easter that's way too far south.

The storm is developing in the Gulf of Mexico as we speak. I think if it were earlier in the season it might have been a subtropical storm.

But it's a regular old storm, and will have the same effects as a nasty summer or autumn tropical storm. 

I'm seeing an unusual amount of computer model disagreement as to where the storm will hit Florida as it comes off the Gulf of Mexico. 

Its eventual location will determine which parts of Florida see dangerous coastal flooding and waves, flooding, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Though all of Florida will see nasty weather from this, for now, the consensus seems to be the worst coastal flooding would be in central and northern Florida, and the best chance of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes would be across central parts of the state. The whole of Florida is at risk from flooding with rainfall amounts expected to easily pass three inches.

The Sunshine State isn't used to this type of storm in December. El Nino, which we have now, tends to make strong storms cross the southern part of the United States, which helps explain why Florida is about to get smacked so badly.

RACING NORTHWARD

After battering Florida, this strong storm is forecast to race northward through the eastern United States.

Remember how I said meteorologists aren't sure where the center of the storm will make landfall in Florida?  That makes them even more unsure of how far inland along the East Coast it will move as stampedes northward toward New England by Monday. 

I imagine the storm will very roughly follow Interstate 95 northward from Florida to New England.  

For us in Vermont, the storm will affect us, but nobody yet knows precisely how.    It could actually go by to our west, which would put us in very warm air, possibly high enough to break records.

It could go by to our east, too.  If it does, we'd still get rain, but it would be only in the 40s. 

You'd think if this storm went by to our east we'd squeeze a snowstorm out of it.  After all, that's what usually happens in Vermont when a nor'easter races through eastern New England.

In this case, though, it's looking like there would be really no cold air for the storm to work with. You'll notice it today and Sunday, and to a lesser extent tomorrow. High temperatures today and Sunday in Vermont will reach the 40s. A weak cold front will hold temperatures in the 30s to near 40 on Saturday. 

The fact that the track of this storm is so iffy, it's unclear what impacts we'll have here in Vermont. We know it will be a pretty intense storm. So there's the risk of strong, possibly damaging winds, especially along the west slopes of the Green Mountains Sunday night and Monday.

We'll also probably get another dose of fairly heavy rain, plus melting snow in the mountains to renew a flood threat on Monday.  

Those things are all just potential, certainly not cast in stone. You know how the forecast for the last storm we had kept shifting dramatically. Between now and Sunday, we'll have some big changes in predictions for this storm, too.

Since it will probably be a strong system, it's definitely a storm we'll need to keep our eyes on, 

Ghost Of Ian Prevents Some Frost, Causes Coastal Trouble

A squiggly jet contrail through high clouds moving
into northwestern Vermont late Monday afternoon. The 
clouds were from the remnants of Hurricane Ian, which
is still causing coastal flooding in the Mid-Atlantic

 Hurricane Ian, after destroying parts of Florida and damaging the Carolinas last week, finally dissipated last weekend.  

Or not. It's certainly not a hurricane or tropical storm anymore, but its remnants are still causing trouble. And giving some of us here in Vermont a break from the frost and freezes.

Energy from Ian spawned a storm that has been sitting and spinning south of Long Island.  The combination of this storm and strong high pressure to the north has been creating strong and persistent east winds in places like New Jersey and Delaware.   That has led to quite a bit of coastal flooding. 

The flooding isn't nearly as bad as Ian's devastating surge in southwestern Florida. But it's still significant. Jersey Shore communities like Atlantic City, Wildwood, Ocean City and others had people trapped in their homes by high water.  Cars conked out in deep water on flooded streets

Video also showed widespread coastal flooding around Ocean City, Maryland. 

Because that storm is stalled, the flooding has been coming in multiple high tide cycles. That should continue at least through today. Coastal flood warnings and advisories remain in effect, in some places through tomorrow, on Long Island, and in New Jersey and Delaware.

Relentless rains have also plagued the Mid-Atlantic States since Friday. Some areas have had as much as seven inches of rain.  The fact that the rain came over several days and not in a few hours has prevented major river flooding so far.

Up here in Vermont, the storm spread a shield of high clouds over much of the state, preventing a second night of frosts in central and southern Vermont.  Temperatures south of Route 2 early this morning were in the mid 30s to low 40s.  Far northern areas had clearer skies, so frost and freezes were widespread again. 

Here in St. Albans, I escaped the frost, as temperatures remained just barely warm enough to prevent it. 

The high clouds from that stalled storm will continue to spill into Vermont from time to time through tomorrow.  The clouds are thicker in southern Vermont, closer to the storm. There's even been a few sprinkles south of Route 4. 

Except for that, the weather should stay pleasant and benign in Vermont until Friday, when a sharp cold front is likely to cause another plunge in temperatures. 

Big Nor'Easter Almost Definitely A Miss For Vermont; Eastern New England Still Target

The thin snow cover, about five inches, on my property
in St. Albans on Tuesday. It's looking unlikely that
the expected big nor'easter on Saturday will add any
snow cover for the this part of Vermont. 

I'll get into the updates on the nor'easter in a sec, but I have to acknowledge another impressively cold morning in and around Vermont.  

Island Pond got down to at least 35 below early this morning, which at least ties for the chilliest reading of the winter in the Green Mountain State.  Most everyone else in Vermont was in the teens and 20s below this morning.

The way things are shaping up, this morning and last Saturday will pretty likely - but not definitely - be the coldest spells this entire winter. We have more cold weather coming up, but it doesn't look like it will be that frigid again for awhile.

Now, that nor'easter.  As usual with this type of storm,  the computer models have been "windshield wipering" with its path, sometimes taking the storm a little further offshore, others bringing it a little closer. 

At this point, things are consistently pointing to a nothing burger for Vermont, aside from gusty north winds, a nasty wind chill and maybe some light snow in southeastern Vermont on Saturday. 

There's still a slight chance we could get a surprise hit, as a small number of models blitz Vermont with snow. But as of this Thursday morning it's looking pretty doubtful we'll join in the "snow fun." 

That leaves us with the question as to how extensively this thing will battered eastern New England.  As the National Weather Service in Boston notes, a lot will depend on how a dip in the jet stream aligns itself in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tomorrow. 

A sharper dip would bring the storm a little closer to the coast, less sharp, it would be a little more offshore.  In any event, this will be a rapidly strengthening and powerful storm as it passes by New England Saturday. 

Either way, it seems like a lock that at least some of eastern and perhaps central New England will get a lot of snow out of this.  High winds and coastal flooding are also going to be a problem. How bad those two issues will get will depend largely on how close to the coast the storm ultimately gets. 

We still have some questions as to how far west the heavy snow reaches on Long Island, and will it reach to near New York City and the Mid-Atlantic States.

For now winter storm watches hug the coast from Virginia, on up through New Jersey and the New York City area, and then roughly into the southeastern third of New England. 

By the way, after this goes by and another shot of frigid air arrives, it's beginning to look like we back here in Vermont could get our first real thaw since New Year's Eve.  Temperatures could reach the 40s Wednesday and Thursday.

A weather system accompanying this warmth appears to want to give us rain toward Thursday, so Vermont's snow drought will continue on.