Sunday Evening Blizzard Update: The Wild Weather Has Started

A prediction of what the radar imagery of this
nor'easter will look like later tonight. Sort of looks
like a hurricane but it's built completely 
different from one. 

Getting a late start on my brief evening blizzard update as I had to be elsewhere.

Our major blizzard in the Northeast is underway. 

Some of the stats a facts are absolutely impressive. Meteorologist Ben Noll  says that 42 million people expect major or extreme impacts from the storm; 30 million people are under a blizzard warning and 21 percent of the nation's population will be affected by the storm one way or another.    

As meteorologist Matthew Cappucci notes, this storm is a meteorological marvel. A calm, clear eye will develop in the storm. It's not the same mechanism that you see in hurricane but it makes the storm somewhat visually resemble a tropical system

Way out to sea, in the storm's warm sector, powerful supercell thunderstorms will develop, with waterspouts. Not the skinny little almost harmless things you sometimes see off the coast of Florida. Instead, these waterspouts would be Midwestern style powerful tornadoes. 

In much of the blizzard zone today. light wet snow and raind rops. As of 6 p.m. the snow intensity was starting to pick up. An offshore really heavy band of snow looked like it would make landfall in New Jersey and New York metro area by around 7 p.m. 

The blizzard should maintain its intensity in New Jersey and southern New York until late morning or early afternoon tomorrow, 

In New England, Rhode Island has imposed a travel ban in the state starting at 7 p.m. this evening. New Jersey and New York City also have travel bans. I kind of wish Massachusetts would follow suit. I have at least one unconfirmed report that a couple major employers expect to see employees in the office tomorrow. 

If that's true, those businesses are incredibly irresponsible. Especially considering will dump 18  to 25 inches of badly windblown snow, propelled by winds of up to 75 mph near the coast. 

The National Weather Service office in the Boston area said:

"We can't stress this enough but this storm will likely bring extreme to destructive impacts south and east of the I-95 corridor, especially southeast MA and Cape Cod due to the combination of heavy, wet snow and damaging wind gusts. Heavy, wet snowfall amounts up to 2 ft with damaging winds presents a serious concern for tree damage and power outages."

 This thing means business! 

VERMONT EFFECTS 

Overall, the forecast for the big nor'easter hasn't  changed much. 

The southernmost two counties of Vermont are still under a winter storm warning for a windblown 6 t0 12 inches of snow.  That's a little more than what they were predicting this morning. Rutland and Windsor counties are still in for two to six inches. Northern Vermont from the Green Mountains east should get an inch or two, plus blowing snow due to stiff north winds. 

The northern and central Champlain Valley on Monday should only get an inch or less with those gusty winds an blowing snow.

There's still chances that snow bands could behave differently than currently forecast, so look for updates tomorrow morning

I'll have a detailed post on this nor'easter tomorrow morning, of course!

 

Northeastern U.S, Hunkers Down For Blizzard Of '26. Up Here In Vermont, We Catch The Edge Of It

Fox Weather has this graphic of expected snow amounts
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see,
Note the spots of expected two feet or more in '
New Jersey and Massachusetts

Million of people in the Northeast this morning are bracing for an intense, highly dangerous blizzard as forecasts seemingly get worse with every cycle of forecasts. 

The area under blizzard warnings expanded a little more overnight. All of Delaware and New Jersey are in the blizzard warning zone. So is southeastern Maryland and a few counties in Pennsylvania.

The blizzard warming was nudged northward to about Newburgh in New York's Lower Hudson Valley. In Connecticut. the blizzard warning yesterday just covered the southern coast. Now, that warning goes into central Connecticut.  In eastern coastal New England, the blizzard warning now extends as far north as Portsmouth, New Hampshire. 

There's been some changes to the forecast in Vermont, too. We'll get into those further down in this post.

WHERE IT STANDS

The storm is off to its expected slow start this morning, with patchy areas of light rain, snow, sleet and fog.   But it will all intensify during today and reach its screaming crescendo tonight. 

The storm was just developing near coastal North Carolina this morning and will strengthen explosively. 

By early tomorrow, the intense nor'easter will be in a position southeast of Cape Cod, at around 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude. That spot is known as the "benchmark" among meteorologists. It's the spot you want a nor'easter to go to give maximum snowfall to New England and the New York metro area. 

Since this storm will be so intense, the amount of snow will be magnified. So will the wind. In some areas, like New York City, this will be the second big snowstorm of the winter. This one will be much worse than the one in late January. The Big Apple is under its first blizzard warning since March, 2017. This is also expected to be the biggest snowstorm there since 2016.

 Initially, the snow will be wet and heavy, especially near the coastlines. The weight of the snow, combined with the strong winds, will probably bring down a lot of trees and power lines. There will probably be a lot of power outages. Repairs won't go quickly, considering it will be incredibly dangerous for crews to fix power lines in the midst of a blizzard.

Don't even think of flying in or out of the Northeast today. As of 8:30 this morning, a little over 3,000 flights were canceled today and nearly 3,800 flights were scrubbed for tomorrow, says FlightAware.com. I expect those numbers to go up more

Everybody is the storm zone has been told to hunker down, basically shelter in place in their homes. Any road travel should be limited to extreme emergencies, and even then, cars should be stocked with foo, water, and extra warm clothing. 

Snowfall rates should increase to two inches per hour or even a little more tonight. In southeastern Massachusetts, there could be isolated areas of up to four inches per hours. There's also a decent chance of thunder snow in southeastern New England.  

Winds will gust to or even over 50 mph in the blizzard zone. It will be almost as bad in areas covered by winter storm warnings just west and north of the areas under the blizzard warning. In southeastern New England, winds could be even stronger than in New York and New Jersey. Some areas south of Boston and on Cape Cod and the island could go past 70 mph.

Generally speaking, most places in this blizzard should receive one to two feet of snow.  Some areas could receive up to 30 inches of snow. A few records for deepest snowstorm are under threat. 

Coastal flooding is also a given with this, so expect some damage there. The coastal flooding won't be as bad as the devastation we saw in the Blizzard of 1978, but it'll still get dangerous. Some ice remains in shelters bays and such from that frigid weather earlier this month. Movement of that ice during the storm could cause added damage.

Between the possibly record breaking snow depths, the strong winds and the coastal flooding, this is one super dangerous storm.

The only saving grace I can find is this intense nor'easter won't stall like the Blizzard of 1888 or the Blizzard of 1978. In this case, the period of intense weather will last only about 24 hours. But the damage will have been done.

Also, after the storm, some slow thawing is expected to begin later this week, in contrast to the January storm.  It stayed cold for weeks after the January storm, so all that snow and ice just sat there. This time, the snow will at least start to settle in the big cities of the Northeast starting later this week. 

We're hoping everyone heeds the warnings with this intense storm. If people don't follow the rules and stay inside during this blizzard, some of them could die. 

 VERMONT EFFECTS

When a nor'easter goes over that 40/70 benchmark southeast of Cape Cod, as mentioned above, most of Vermont usually gets just the fringe effects of the storm.

Since this storm is so powerful, far southern Vermont will get a decent hit, though it will be nothing compared to what places nearer to the coast will endure. 

Bennington and Windham counties, the areas of the state closest to the Massachusetts border are under a winter storm storm warning. Those areas should get five to 10 inches of snow with winds gusting as high as 40 mph tonight an tomorrow. 

Rutland and Windsor counties have a winter weather advisory for Monday as those areas should get three to five inches of snow with winds gusting to 35 mph. That'll force a lot of blowing and drifting.

As is typical with a setup like this, snow amounts should fall sharply as you head into northern Vermont.  East of the Green Mountains in northern Vermont, there could be an inch or two of new snow out of this.  In the Champlain Valley, it'll be less than an inch. 

For those Vermonters who are for some reason desperate for snow, there's a slight possibility the nor'easter might throw a band of snow all the way across Vermont, which would give northern parts of the state a few inches of snow.

That said, the possibility of that happening is quite low. Don't hold your breath. 

The nor'easter will make things windy and quite cold for a couple days. We'll have some relative warmth today with highs in the mid-30 under mostly cloudy skies.

By tomorrow, it'll only be in the 20s for highs with a stiff north wind gusting to more than 30 mph. Readings will drop to 10 degrees or so tomorrow night and only get into the upper teens and low 20s on Tuesday. It could get close to zero Tuesday night. 

It'll warm up again to daytime highs in the low 30s late in the week. But a small storm Wednesday could spread a little snow our way. Another storm Friday gives us a shot at more snow or mixed precipitation. Those forecasts are iffy, so stay tuned for information after the nor'easter passes.   

Atlantic Canada Being Blasted By Repeated Big Storms

One forecast depiction of an intense bomb cyclone
expected to hit Newfoundland on Tuesday. This storm will
blast the coastline up there with near hurricane force gusts.

 The most intense in a series of strong storms is about to blast parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland with wild gales, torrential rains and battering waves on the coast. 

We told you last week about a dip in the jet stream that has roughly centered itself in or near Quebec. 

The position of this dip allows storms to develop near the United States coast and then intensify as they move northeast into Canada. 

A nor'easter was developing off the North Carolina coast today. It will move north and east, well off the New England coast. 

Meanwhile, a separate system, with a cold front that will give us in Vermont a spate of showers this afternoon and tonight, is heading east. 

The two storms will team up, and the nor'easter will explode into that intense storm. Waters off the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are way warmer than normal for this time of year. The warm water will add fuel for the storm and make it especially intense.   

The storm should blow past the eastern tip of Nova Scotia early Tuesday then smack into Newfoundland during the day. 

Though it will be a fairly compact storm, the barometric pressure at its center could go down to as low as 944 millibars or 27.88 inches of mercury, a sign of particularly powerful storm. 

As a result, parts of eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Tuesday can expect wind gusts as high as 68 mph and up to three inches of rain. . Environment Canada has issued wind warnings for the areas that will be hit by the storm. 

Huge waves will batter the coastlines. Environment Canada has also issued coastal flood alerts for parts of Newfoundland. The wind and rain warnings might well be extended into Nova Scotia. 

The Maritime provinces of Canada are now caught in a stormy pattern, thanks to the weather pattern that centers that southward push of the jet stream in or near Quebec. 

The storm that brought decent rains to us in Vermont last Friday intensified further and brought high winds and heavy rain to Maritimes. Up in Canada, the rain got a boost from the remnants of Hurricane Melissa passing by just offshore of Newfoundland. 

Three more storms between Wednesday and next Monday will be beginning to develop near us here in Vermont, giving us light to moderate amounts of precipitation. 

Several weather models indicate each of these storms will become powerful once they head up toward Newfoundland. They might not be as strong as the one that will hit Tuesday, but will still stir things up with more potentially damaging winds and a flood risk. 

East Coast Braces For Big Storm, Major Coastal Damage; Effects On Vermont Still Questionable

The developing storm, seen on this morning's satellite
imagery, was centered off the coast of Georgia
and had an expanding shield of clouds. Pretty
much the entire Eastern Seaboard will be hit
with storm surges and damaging waves. 

The East Coast is, as we mentioned yesterday, bracing itself for a humdinger of a storm, and I'm sure you'll see a lot of news and social media videos of giant waves crashing into comparatively tiny beaches, vacation homes and tourist businesses. 

The worst of it will come in starting with this evening's tides, and ramping up to its worst rampage Sunday and Monday. Sand dunes that protect property and roads will get flattened by the waves in spots, and beaches will erode away. 

Out on Cape Hatteras, the tide will be two to four above normal later today and tonight, according to forecast. Large waves of eight to 12 feet are likely, so I imagine more houses will fall into the ocean. 

In places like Delaware, the Virginia Tidewater and the Jersey Shore, residents are also bracing for huge waves, and tidal flooding. There might be some evacuations, and shoreline homes and businesses could easily be damaged.

Tide level at Cape May, New Jersey might be as high or higher than in the 2012 Superstorm Sandy.  The tide at Atlantic City could be among the top ten on record.

New Jersey had declared a state of emergency in anticipation of the storm.

 Long Island is bracing for similar bad weather, with flooding of shoreline homes and businesses expected there, too. A lot of roads will also be closed. Businesses and homeowners were moving possessions to higher ground or upper floors as the storm approached. The Riverhead Country Fair on Long Island, an extremely popular event out there, has been canceled this weekend. 

 This storm is going to be a lot like a hurricane sweeping up the East Coast, only it's not a hurricane. Just a regular old storm joining forces with a strong high pressure system to its north to shove water inland where it doesn't belong. 

The pressure difference between the storm and the high to the north will create coastal winds gusting to 60 mph or more. That long fetch of east winds over the Atlantic will shove a lot of water onto the Eastern Seaboard, which is why everybody is expecting such destructive storm surges this weekend. 

It's going to be one memorable storm for many along the coast. It won't rise to the level of the famous "Perfect Storm" of 1991, but it will be something. 

We also can't ignore the fact that sea levels are gradually creeping up, year after year, thanks to climate change. A storm of this magnitude would have caused a lot of damage a half century ago, but not quite as much as this storm, as the water is starting from a slightly higher level than it would have back then.

The damage will also be much worse than it would have been back in 1970s or 1980s because a lot more houses, businesses, condos, resorts, gift shops, honky tonks and gawd knows what else has been built along the shore since then. If you've got more stuff in the way, more stuff is going to get knocked over. Or at least soaked with sea water. 

Expect more and more of this kind of mess as we go through the coming years and decades.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Rainfall prediction map for this upcoming nor'easter
in and around Vermont. Up to an inch could fall in 
far southern Vermont with very little up north.
This forecast is very much subject to change. 

The Green Mountain State has no shoreline to flood, of course. Unless you count Lake Champlain, which is so ridiculously low due to drought that a 200 mph wind wouldn't stir up enough waves to cause any damage. (Although, as you might imagine, a 200 mph wind would cause a lot of other problems)!

Don't worry, the wind from this storm will be far less than that. Things could get a little gusty on the western slopes of the southern Green Mountains Sunday night and Monday.  Maybe even enough to knock over a tree or two or snap a power line. 

But Vermont is mostly going to sit out this storm. 

The storm does look like it will come close enough to give some rain to parched southern Vermont. But we don't know how far north that rain will get. 

The strong high pressure over Quebec that will help create the intense east winds and storm tides along the eastern seaboard will block the storm - and its moisture - from coming too far north. Plus the high pressure will feed in some dry air, likely evaporating a lot of the rain that tries to come down from the clouds. 

As of Saturday morning, computer models were still arguing with each other as to how much rain will fall where in Vermont. It's a difficult forecast because somewhere in northern New England, including here in the Green Mountain State, there will probably be a sharp line from decent rains to the south and not much of anything north. 

We don't know exactly where that line will be. Honestly, we probably won't know until the storm makes its closest pass at us Sunday night and Monday. 

So expect adjustments to the forecast. As of this morning, predicted rainfall totals range from near an inch close to the Massachusetts border to just a few raindrops up near the Canadian border.  

Any rain will help, of course. And after the storm goes by, we'll settle into a cooler and cloudier weather pattern than we've had all of this autumn so far. That means the drought won't be able to keep intensifying so fast, and might even level off, if we get showers here and there. 

But as far as any drought-ending downpours and drenching goes, we're still out of luck for now.  

Hurricane Erin To Become Season's First Big Powerhouse. Thankfully Likely A Swing And A Miss

Visible satellite photo of Hurricane Erin this afternoon.
It's continuing to organize very efficiently and is
forecast to become a Category 4 or even 5 monster.

 What was Tropical Storm Erin, struggling over cool waters and dusty skies far out in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, moved into a more favorable place for hurricanes, so the storm obliged.  

As of today, it's Hurricane Erin. Its top winds were 75 mph as of mid-afternoon, just barely strong enough to be a Category 1. 

But Erin is moving into an area that's very friendly to hurricanes. There won't be much in the way of upper level winds that would disrupt the monster thunderstorms powering Erin. 

 It's also going to move over water that is at near record warmth. Warm water is jet fuel for hurricanes, so you're going to see this storm really ramp up. 

It looks like Erin will follow the frightening trend we've increasingly seen in hurricanes over the past few years. It goes from practically a nothing burger to scary top tier howler almost in an instant.

Scientists have been concerned about this trend.  Climate change appears to be making it easier for hurricanes to intensify at warp speed.   

The only hindrance to Erin strengthening is that it might ingest some dry air and dust to its north, which would disrupt its efforts to become big and bad just a little.

The official forecast has Erin with top wind speeds of 145 mph by Monday, making it a scary Category 4 storm,. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets even stronger than that.  Some hurricane forecasters are also saying that, so it could be a Cat 5 before all is said and done.

The great news is that - so far at least - forecasts tell us Erin is going to thread the needle between islands and coastlines, and stands a strong chance of never directly smashing into land. 

The current thinking is Erin will be north of the Leeward Islands tomorrow, well north of Puerto Rico ad the Dominican Republic Monday while it turns north east of the Bahamas. 

A weakness in the summertime Bermuda High seems to be coming to the rescue. Had the high pressure remained strong, Erin would continue west and plow into Florida or somewhere on the East Coast. 

Instead, almost all forecast models take big, bad Erin northward between Bermuda and the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then curving toward the northeast, passing far to the south and east of New England. 

Phew!

We still face dangers from Erin, however.  Not only will Erin be strong, it will be big and fat, so its effects will stretch far from its eye. 

 A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northern Leeward Islands, since Erin will be passing not that far to the north on Saturday. 

Hurricane Erin will generate large swells and rips currents that will make coastal areas dangerous from near Miami all the way up the east coasts of the United States and Canada as far north as Labrador. I imagine we'll see videos of coastal erosion, submerged shoreline roads, dramatic swimming rescues and maybe a few vulnerable beach homes and cottages falling into the waves and disintegrating. 

We'll also have to watch this thing carefully, as there's still a chance it could nudge a little further westward than today's forecasts are telling us.  If Erin does wander a little further west, it could produce at least tropical storm conditions in the Bahamas and eventually the Outer Banks of North Carolina. 

For my Vermont readers, Hurricane Erin will have no effect on us.   

Gulf Tropical Trouble Brews While Immediate East Coast Harassed By Offshore Storms

Not a lot of organized storminess off the East Coast
in this satellite photo taken this morning. But what
there is out there, combined with an easterly flow
and King Tides, is causing damaging coastal flooding
from New England to Florida. 

 While we in Vermont remain in dry, pleasant and for the most part rather sunny weather, right along East Coast it's been a different story. 

The same blocked weather pattern that has kept fair weather high pressure nearby, which has been shunting rain away from Vermont, stalled storminess off the coast has been causing trouble. 

 On top of all that, later this week could bring new tropical trouble to the Gulf Coast. More on that in a bit. 

COASTAL FLOODS/RAINS

Southeastern New England has taken much of the brunt of this. Over the past two or three days, Cape Cod, Massachusetts has gotten two to as much as 6.5 inches of rain from a persistent onshore flow from that offshore storminess. 

Orleans, Massachusetts had more than nine inches of rain within about three and a half days. 

Scituate, Massachusetts is famous for those big storm waves crashing into seaside homes during nor'easters, and this offshore storm brought more of the same to the town.

But Scituate had another big problem to deal with. One of those oceanside homes caught fire.  The strong winds fanned the flames, so the house was destroyed and two adjacent ones damaged. No word on whether the waves and wind helped cause the blaze. 

The Cape Cod rain there has tapered off and the sun has actually been out on and off up and down the rest of the East Coast. But the storminess, and easterly wind flow and seasonal King Tides are causing coastal flooding from New England to Florida. 

Much of this is classic "sunny weather" coastal flooding. Sea level rise brought on by climate change has led to bouts of flooding even when there's not much in the way of a storm to push water inland. 

Screen grab of video of Rodanthe, North Carolina
as erosion eats away at the coast.  Since this video
was taken last week the two houses on the right
that are in the water collapsed into the ocean. 

In Rodanthe, North Carolina on the outer banks, two more houses collapsed into the ocean this weekend as high tides and battering waves smashed into the eroding coastline. So far nine homes have fallen into the sea in that town in recent years, including four this year.  

One of those houses just collapsed in August as Hurricane Ernesto passed by far, far offshore.  Other homes there are teetering and ready to go. 

Coastal flood warnings remain in effect up and down the East Coast today. The flooding in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia might well be high enough later today and tonight to cause damage to seaside homes and businesses.

GULF HURRICANE?

Something seems to be brewing off the coast of Mexico, and that could cause trouble for the United States Gulf Coast later this week. 

There's not even any kind of storm yet, but unsettled weather in the western Caribbean Sea seems like it wants to eventually organize into a possible tropical storm. If that happens, most of the computer models take it north to eventually hit somewhere between Louisiana and Florida.

It's way too soon to figure out how big this thing will get, and who knows? It might not ever get its act together. But the Gulf of Mexico waters are super warm, and that's jet fuel for wannabe hurricanes. It all depends on whether atmospheric winds will support a would be tropical storm.

Since it's way to early to figure out if there will be a Gulf of Mexico hurricane and where it would go, it's even harder to figure out whether that thing will have any effect on us here in Vermont. Bottom line: We have no idea whether we'll see the effects of it here. 

Signs continue to point to a somewhat wetter pattern over us, which would keep the weather unsettled over us here in Vermont during the second half of the upcoming week. 

A storm system coming in from the west looks like it will bring us some showers. There's a low chance moisture from any tropical system in the South could get pulled up this way to give us heavy rains. But the odds really seem stacked against that scenario. At least if most long range forecasts pan out. 

In fact, we might only have a brief showery period late in the week before persistent dry weather re-establishes itself over us. 

Time will tell.

 

Sunday In Vermont: Snow Squalls Are Today's Hazard, But Unlike Rest Of U.S. Wet Get Break From Extreme Weather

A snow squall approaching St. Albans, Vermont in
February 2022 looked like a wall of snow
approaching. Similar scenes are possibly today
in parts of Vermont. 

 In the "It's always something" department, Vermont has one more hazardous day to get through today with the weather. 

The danger today will be out on the roads.

One cold front has come through. It's breezy and chillier, with snow showers around. Nothing wild .A second cold front is coming through Vermont today, and that looks like it has enough oomph to set off some snow squalls. 

Snow squall warnings were already in effect for parts of Pennsylvania this morning. 

There's a decent chance parts of Vermont might go under such warnings late this morning and afternoon. The snow squalls can be quite powerful. There's a low but not zero chance that some of the squalls today could create lightning and relatively rare thundersnow in parts of the Green Mountain State.

Snow squalls are dangerous because they abruptly turn visibility on the roads from just fine to zero. Road conditions also go from just fine to awful. That's a recipe for highway crashes. Some of the worst pileups on U.S. Interstate highways have been in snow squalls. 

If you're out driving today and go you hear a snow squall warning, and if you can, just find a way to get off the Interstate or busy highway and wait it out. Snow squalls rarely last longer than a half hour. Of course the roads will be iffy after the squall passes, but at least you won't be driving blind.

Or better yet, just stay home today. 

A February, 2022 snow squall in St. Albans,
Vermont cuts visibility to near zero. About 20 seconds
before this photo was taken, visibility was fine,
showing how quickly snow squalls can change things.

These squalls won't cause a huge amount of accumulation - probably a half inch to three inches at most. 

Another interesting thing going on this morning is that one of those lake effect snow bands coming off Lake Ontario is so powerful that it made it all the way into far northern Vermont and to the southeastern corner of Quebec.

Here in St. Albans, I caught the edge of it briefly and got one inch of snow. The snow band has since moved north. 

EXTREME WEATHER

That powerful snow squall from Lake Ontario I mentioned is part of a continuation of the extreme weather much of the United States s either dealing with or picking up the pieces in the aftermath.

Vermont is more in the picking up the pieces mode than bracing for extreme weather. The real bad stuff appears like it wants to give Vermont a break for awhile. 

As of 8:30 a.m. Sunday, about 3,000 homes and businesses were without power in Vermont, mostly in Rutland County.  Perhaps the most dramatic instance of damage yesterday came in Richmond, where the metal roof of a house blew off.

Neighbors swarmed the house during the day and pretty much replaced it by nightfall for the elderly woman living there, WPTZ reported. 

Video of the strong winds near Richmond, Vermont is at the bottom of this post.

Although today will be gusty, we won't have any winds strong enough to cause further damage. 

Saturday's storm was far more destructive in New Hampshire and Maine. Serious flooding hit Hampton Beach, New Hampshire for the second time in a week, and structures were destroyed by pounding waves and high tides in Maine. 

Blasts of Arctic air - belatedly the first real cold outbreak of the winter - is causing the continued extreme conditions this week. But not really here in Vermont

The frigid air is taking what the I, and the National Weather Service office in South Burlington call the "scenic route."  

Radar from the National Weather Service office
in South Burlington this morning shows a lake
effect snow band extending all the way from
Lake Ontario across northwest Vermont and 
southern Quebec.

It plunged southward into Montana and North Dakota, and kept going south and east, freezing the southern United States - or is about to.  

One cold blast has already hit, dropping temperatures into the 40s below zero in Montana and siccing a blizzard in the Midwest. 

Then that cold air heads northeastward from the Midwest towards us. This indirect route gives the Arctic air a chance to warm up a little bit. By the time it gets here, we end up being kinda cold, but not OH MY GOD awful.

This arrangement is also helping to create strong west to southwest winds off of Lakes Erie and Ontario, which is why western New York is getting slammed by those lake effect storms. 

The path of the cold air seems to want to suppress storms to our south this week. One on Tuesday will go out to sea well south of Vermont, but a separate system will give us light snow that day.

Another storm Friday could hit us, but early indications are that one, too will go out to sea.

Meanwhile, those storms will unleash cold, snow and ice on parts of the South this week. 

Back here in Vermont, the coldest weather looks like it will arrive by next weekend, and we might see our first subzero cold on the winter. A very late start to that idea.

The cold across the nation looks like it will be rather short-lived, too.  A warmup is about to start in the Rockies, and that should slowly move eastward across the U.S. reaching us here in New England in perhaps seven or eight days. 

VIDEO

Strong winds sweep through the Jonesville section of Richmond, Vermont Saturday.  The downslope winds can erode clouds near the mountain slopes where they originate. It happened during this storm, creating a rainbow amid the chaos. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Odd, Strong Storm To Whack Florida Saturday, Hit Us In Vermont By Monday

Just one of many depictions of an expected strong
storm in the eastern United States Monday morning.
The strength and position of this could change.
But it will slap Florida with severe weather this
weekend, and could cause strong winds and
heavy rain here in Vermont Monday. 

 Strong, non-tropical storms usually don't hit Florida. Sure, they have cold fronts, sometimes even winter time severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and floods. 

However, this one is basically a nor'easter that's way too far south.

The storm is developing in the Gulf of Mexico as we speak. I think if it were earlier in the season it might have been a subtropical storm.

But it's a regular old storm, and will have the same effects as a nasty summer or autumn tropical storm. 

I'm seeing an unusual amount of computer model disagreement as to where the storm will hit Florida as it comes off the Gulf of Mexico. 

Its eventual location will determine which parts of Florida see dangerous coastal flooding and waves, flooding, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Though all of Florida will see nasty weather from this, for now, the consensus seems to be the worst coastal flooding would be in central and northern Florida, and the best chance of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes would be across central parts of the state. The whole of Florida is at risk from flooding with rainfall amounts expected to easily pass three inches.

The Sunshine State isn't used to this type of storm in December. El Nino, which we have now, tends to make strong storms cross the southern part of the United States, which helps explain why Florida is about to get smacked so badly.

RACING NORTHWARD

After battering Florida, this strong storm is forecast to race northward through the eastern United States.

Remember how I said meteorologists aren't sure where the center of the storm will make landfall in Florida?  That makes them even more unsure of how far inland along the East Coast it will move as stampedes northward toward New England by Monday. 

I imagine the storm will very roughly follow Interstate 95 northward from Florida to New England.  

For us in Vermont, the storm will affect us, but nobody yet knows precisely how.    It could actually go by to our west, which would put us in very warm air, possibly high enough to break records.

It could go by to our east, too.  If it does, we'd still get rain, but it would be only in the 40s. 

You'd think if this storm went by to our east we'd squeeze a snowstorm out of it.  After all, that's what usually happens in Vermont when a nor'easter races through eastern New England.

In this case, though, it's looking like there would be really no cold air for the storm to work with. You'll notice it today and Sunday, and to a lesser extent tomorrow. High temperatures today and Sunday in Vermont will reach the 40s. A weak cold front will hold temperatures in the 30s to near 40 on Saturday. 

The fact that the track of this storm is so iffy, it's unclear what impacts we'll have here in Vermont. We know it will be a pretty intense storm. So there's the risk of strong, possibly damaging winds, especially along the west slopes of the Green Mountains Sunday night and Monday.

We'll also probably get another dose of fairly heavy rain, plus melting snow in the mountains to renew a flood threat on Monday.  

Those things are all just potential, certainly not cast in stone. You know how the forecast for the last storm we had kept shifting dramatically. Between now and Sunday, we'll have some big changes in predictions for this storm, too.

Since it will probably be a strong system, it's definitely a storm we'll need to keep our eyes on, 

Ghost Of Ian Prevents Some Frost, Causes Coastal Trouble

A squiggly jet contrail through high clouds moving
into northwestern Vermont late Monday afternoon. The 
clouds were from the remnants of Hurricane Ian, which
is still causing coastal flooding in the Mid-Atlantic

 Hurricane Ian, after destroying parts of Florida and damaging the Carolinas last week, finally dissipated last weekend.  

Or not. It's certainly not a hurricane or tropical storm anymore, but its remnants are still causing trouble. And giving some of us here in Vermont a break from the frost and freezes.

Energy from Ian spawned a storm that has been sitting and spinning south of Long Island.  The combination of this storm and strong high pressure to the north has been creating strong and persistent east winds in places like New Jersey and Delaware.   That has led to quite a bit of coastal flooding. 

The flooding isn't nearly as bad as Ian's devastating surge in southwestern Florida. But it's still significant. Jersey Shore communities like Atlantic City, Wildwood, Ocean City and others had people trapped in their homes by high water.  Cars conked out in deep water on flooded streets

Video also showed widespread coastal flooding around Ocean City, Maryland. 

Because that storm is stalled, the flooding has been coming in multiple high tide cycles. That should continue at least through today. Coastal flood warnings and advisories remain in effect, in some places through tomorrow, on Long Island, and in New Jersey and Delaware.

Relentless rains have also plagued the Mid-Atlantic States since Friday. Some areas have had as much as seven inches of rain.  The fact that the rain came over several days and not in a few hours has prevented major river flooding so far.

Up here in Vermont, the storm spread a shield of high clouds over much of the state, preventing a second night of frosts in central and southern Vermont.  Temperatures south of Route 2 early this morning were in the mid 30s to low 40s.  Far northern areas had clearer skies, so frost and freezes were widespread again. 

Here in St. Albans, I escaped the frost, as temperatures remained just barely warm enough to prevent it. 

The high clouds from that stalled storm will continue to spill into Vermont from time to time through tomorrow.  The clouds are thicker in southern Vermont, closer to the storm. There's even been a few sprinkles south of Route 4. 

Except for that, the weather should stay pleasant and benign in Vermont until Friday, when a sharp cold front is likely to cause another plunge in temperatures. 

Big Nor'Easter Almost Definitely A Miss For Vermont; Eastern New England Still Target

The thin snow cover, about five inches, on my property
in St. Albans on Tuesday. It's looking unlikely that
the expected big nor'easter on Saturday will add any
snow cover for the this part of Vermont. 

I'll get into the updates on the nor'easter in a sec, but I have to acknowledge another impressively cold morning in and around Vermont.  

Island Pond got down to at least 35 below early this morning, which at least ties for the chilliest reading of the winter in the Green Mountain State.  Most everyone else in Vermont was in the teens and 20s below this morning.

The way things are shaping up, this morning and last Saturday will pretty likely - but not definitely - be the coldest spells this entire winter. We have more cold weather coming up, but it doesn't look like it will be that frigid again for awhile.

Now, that nor'easter.  As usual with this type of storm,  the computer models have been "windshield wipering" with its path, sometimes taking the storm a little further offshore, others bringing it a little closer. 

At this point, things are consistently pointing to a nothing burger for Vermont, aside from gusty north winds, a nasty wind chill and maybe some light snow in southeastern Vermont on Saturday. 

There's still a slight chance we could get a surprise hit, as a small number of models blitz Vermont with snow. But as of this Thursday morning it's looking pretty doubtful we'll join in the "snow fun." 

That leaves us with the question as to how extensively this thing will battered eastern New England.  As the National Weather Service in Boston notes, a lot will depend on how a dip in the jet stream aligns itself in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tomorrow. 

A sharper dip would bring the storm a little closer to the coast, less sharp, it would be a little more offshore.  In any event, this will be a rapidly strengthening and powerful storm as it passes by New England Saturday. 

Either way, it seems like a lock that at least some of eastern and perhaps central New England will get a lot of snow out of this.  High winds and coastal flooding are also going to be a problem. How bad those two issues will get will depend largely on how close to the coast the storm ultimately gets. 

We still have some questions as to how far west the heavy snow reaches on Long Island, and will it reach to near New York City and the Mid-Atlantic States.

For now winter storm watches hug the coast from Virginia, on up through New Jersey and the New York City area, and then roughly into the southeastern third of New England. 

By the way, after this goes by and another shot of frigid air arrives, it's beginning to look like we back here in Vermont could get our first real thaw since New Year's Eve.  Temperatures could reach the 40s Wednesday and Thursday.

A weather system accompanying this warmth appears to want to give us rain toward Thursday, so Vermont's snow drought will continue on.