Odd, Strong Storm To Whack Florida Saturday, Hit Us In Vermont By Monday

Just one of many depictions of an expected strong
storm in the eastern United States Monday morning.
The strength and position of this could change.
But it will slap Florida with severe weather this
weekend, and could cause strong winds and
heavy rain here in Vermont Monday. 

 Strong, non-tropical storms usually don't hit Florida. Sure, they have cold fronts, sometimes even winter time severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and floods. 

However, this one is basically a nor'easter that's way too far south.

The storm is developing in the Gulf of Mexico as we speak. I think if it were earlier in the season it might have been a subtropical storm.

But it's a regular old storm, and will have the same effects as a nasty summer or autumn tropical storm. 

I'm seeing an unusual amount of computer model disagreement as to where the storm will hit Florida as it comes off the Gulf of Mexico. 

Its eventual location will determine which parts of Florida see dangerous coastal flooding and waves, flooding, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Though all of Florida will see nasty weather from this, for now, the consensus seems to be the worst coastal flooding would be in central and northern Florida, and the best chance of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes would be across central parts of the state. The whole of Florida is at risk from flooding with rainfall amounts expected to easily pass three inches.

The Sunshine State isn't used to this type of storm in December. El Nino, which we have now, tends to make strong storms cross the southern part of the United States, which helps explain why Florida is about to get smacked so badly.

RACING NORTHWARD

After battering Florida, this strong storm is forecast to race northward through the eastern United States.

Remember how I said meteorologists aren't sure where the center of the storm will make landfall in Florida?  That makes them even more unsure of how far inland along the East Coast it will move as stampedes northward toward New England by Monday. 

I imagine the storm will very roughly follow Interstate 95 northward from Florida to New England.  

For us in Vermont, the storm will affect us, but nobody yet knows precisely how.    It could actually go by to our west, which would put us in very warm air, possibly high enough to break records.

It could go by to our east, too.  If it does, we'd still get rain, but it would be only in the 40s. 

You'd think if this storm went by to our east we'd squeeze a snowstorm out of it.  After all, that's what usually happens in Vermont when a nor'easter races through eastern New England.

In this case, though, it's looking like there would be really no cold air for the storm to work with. You'll notice it today and Sunday, and to a lesser extent tomorrow. High temperatures today and Sunday in Vermont will reach the 40s. A weak cold front will hold temperatures in the 30s to near 40 on Saturday. 

The fact that the track of this storm is so iffy, it's unclear what impacts we'll have here in Vermont. We know it will be a pretty intense storm. So there's the risk of strong, possibly damaging winds, especially along the west slopes of the Green Mountains Sunday night and Monday.

We'll also probably get another dose of fairly heavy rain, plus melting snow in the mountains to renew a flood threat on Monday.  

Those things are all just potential, certainly not cast in stone. You know how the forecast for the last storm we had kept shifting dramatically. Between now and Sunday, we'll have some big changes in predictions for this storm, too.

Since it will probably be a strong system, it's definitely a storm we'll need to keep our eyes on,