Rain/Wind Lashing Eastern United States, Including Vermont As Monday Storm Roars Through

The normally tiny stream near my house in St. Albans, Vermont
was roaring this morning. It's normally just a two inch
deep little gurgle of water. This morning it was the
highest I've seen it since the big flood in July. 

 As everyone expected, it was a stormy night in the eastern United States as that intensifying storm moves northward toward New England and New York today. 

Tens of thousands of residents are without power up and down the East Coast, schools are closed in many areas as people hunker down from the wind and rain. 

Flood warnings and flash flood warnings extended before dawn from Maryland to New Hampshire.

On Sunday, severe flooding hit South Carolina.  Torrential rains, especially near the coast created a flash flood emergency, especially since high storm tides blocked the water from draining. The storm surge in Charleston, South Carolina was the highest on record for a non-tropical storm.

Up to a foot of rain fell in some parts of South Carolina. 

With the storm moving north, the biggest effects from it today will be in the Northeast, including here in Vermont. Flood watches cover virtually all of New England and New York. Wind advisories and high wind warnings also cover most of the region.

One area I've been really concerned about is the south and east facing slopes of the White Mountains in New Hampshire, where huge amounts of moisture are slamming into the mountains, forcing the air to rise and create torrential downpours. 

A flash flood warning went up for central and northern New Hampshire this morning, including areas around Conway and Franconia Notch. Two to five inches of rain, along with rapid snowmelt on frozen ground, is creating a dangerous situation in New Hampshire. 

Of course, we in Vermont are not escaping this storm. Let's dive in on how we are faring in the Green Mountain State

VERMONT EFFECTS

The worst of the storm was just moving into Vermont as of 5 a.m. this Monday morning. Expect a stormy day, especially this morning and early afternoon. Rain will come down hard at times. The flood watch certainly remains in effect.  High winds will cause some problems in a few areas, especially near the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Before dawn, the strong and strengthening storm had an elongated south to north orientation. One center seemed to be near near New Jersey and the other along the Virginia coast. This arrangement allowed rain to move in last evening.

Flooding

The storm as of 6 a.m. was sending bands of heavy rain south to north across Vermont. The storm is sort of consolidating as it gets stronger and moves north. It seems like the center will be about over Burlington or the central Adirondacks by early afternoon. 

Most of us should still have a storm total of 1.5 to 3 inches of rain with this storm before it's over. Plus snow melt from the mountains. 

As of 6:30 a.m., there were not yet any flood advisories or warnings in Vermont, but I think that will change as we go through the morning and afternoon. 

During the day today, the problem will be smaller brooks and streams, which could erode back roads, wreck culverts, create sink holes, that kind of thing. Large puddles, standing water and hydroplaning will all be issues on the roads and highways. 

By this afternoon into tomorrow morning, all rivers in Vermont will be high with many going into minor flood stage, as has been anticipated right along. A couple rivers, like the lower Winooski and the Hoosick in southwestern Vermont, could hit moderate flood stage.

The lower reaches of the larger rivers should still be flooding and closing some roads Tuesday morning even after the rain has ended. That's because it takes time for the runoff to get all the down river. Both today and tomorrow morning, you'll want to check ahead to see if the low lying road you usually take to school or work is open or not. 

And for gawd's sake if you encounter flooding on a road, don't go past the barriers and plow through, stupidly thinking you can make it. You probably won't. Just turn around and find another way to get where you're going. It's not that hard. 

What I said last night still appears to be holding: There will be a fair amount of flooding with this We can expect road closures and some damage to very low lying property. But this won't be a repeat of the flooding from this past summer. The flooding this time is something to take seriously, but it won't be catastrophic.

High winds

This track is a wee bit further west than last evening's forecast indicated. That opens the door for a little more downslope winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Especially since the east winds will be perpendicular to the Green Mountain ridge line for a time this morning.

That will allow wind to gather momentum and blast down the slopes of the mountains. That was already starting before dawn, as I've noticed a few power outages have started to crop up - about 750 of them as of 6:30 a.m..

The period of strongest winds along the western slopes should be brief, maybe just a few hours, but we could see gusts of 60 mph or more in the usual wind-prone places, like the Mendon, Ripton, perhaps Huntington, Underhill, Cambridge and Berkshire. 

I expect a few more power outages and reports of fallen trees and branches to crop up through the morning. 

Most of the rest of us should see gusty winds at some point today, but those winds shouldn't very damaging away from the western slopes. 

Record warmth

The storm is sending a surge of very warm, humid air northward for this time of year. By 6 a.m. temperatures were already well into the 50s in southwestern Vermont. The record high in Burlington today is 57 degrees, and the forecast high is 58.

Montpelier will probably shatter its record high for the date, which is 50 degrees. 

Behind The Storm

Temperatures will start to fall in Vermont by mid to late afternoon, but it will be a fairly slow process. Rain will become much lighter and showery tonight, and probably change to snow over the higher terrain. 

In most of the valleys, though, temperatures might not even be below freezing by dawn Tuesday. However, a cold front behind this storm should trigger some snow showers and falling temperatures during the day. A few of the snow showers might be kinda heavy, which would cause some problems with poor visibility and suddenly icy roads in spots. 

After that, we've got quiet weather to look forward to through Christmas. 

I'll have updates as warranted with this storm today.