Rain Storm And Some Flooding Still In Cards For Vermont, But Another Round Of Heavy, Wet Snow Is, Too

Photo shows heavy, wet snow snarling traffic and 
weighing down trees in St. Albans, Vermont this
past March 14  Changes to the forecast for
the upcoming storm suggest we might see
similar scenes in Vermont Monday morning,
along with some potential flooding.

 

UPDATE 2 PM FRIDAY

The National Weather Service office has - to pretty much nobody's surprise - issued a flood watch for most of Vermont and northeastern New York for Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

The forecast for heavy rain later Sunday still stands. 

The Northeast River Forecast Center forecasts minor flooding for the Winooski and Mad Rivers and the Otter Creek in Vermont. 

All other rivers in the state should see sharp rises, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if other rivers in the state flood as well. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

As we track the nasty storm due to start Sunday in Vermont, we are following the inevitable changes in the forecast.  

One change that's cropping up is that toward the end of the storm, we might have another round of heavy, wet snow that would be enough to cause power outages. 

That would be the third time in a month that has happened. At least if it really does happen.

I've just returned to Vermont from Edinburgh, Scotland, and am greeted this morning by the kind of weather I experienced over there. It's overcast and dreary.  

Some sun might develop this afternoon. But as is typical for this time of year, we won't have much sun. 

Leading up to the storm, today and Saturday will be quiet, and turning warmer. It'll get into the 30s this afternoon, about where temperature should be for this time of year.  Readings won't fall much tonight, and then we'll get into the 40s tomorrow under continued cloudy skies.

THE RAIN STORM

Predictions for the first part of this storm haven't changed much. It will turn even warmer, with highs in the 40s, to possibly near 50 in a couple spots Sunday. Rain will move in during the day. The threat of strong winds during the first half of the storm have diminished, but it will still be breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. 

That thump of relatively heavy rain will peak Sunday night, as will the rate of melting snow from the mountains. Streams and rivers will rise rapidly, and we're still looking at some minor flooding  Like I have said in previous days, any flooding we do get won't be nearly as serious as what we endured this past summer. 

However, it's basically always night this time of year, and it's harder to see high water on roads up ahead, until it's too late. Some low-lying roads will probably go under water Sunday night and Monday, and if you don't see the water, your car can get caught in that flooding.

The idea of being alone, stuck in frigid water in your car or near it does not sound appealing. Plus, we can't ignore the obvious fact that the cold water could kill you pretty quickly.   

On top of that, there's new forecast complications to deal with as Monday comes along.

SNOWIER FORECAST?

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington points out, there's been some changes to some of the forecasts the computer models are spitting out. 

That wet soggy cold front that is causing the big thump of rain should cross through mostly before dawn on Monday. Meanwhile, the models are suggesting a storm will form along the front somewhere in Mid-Atlantic States.

The more ominous computer models take the new storm northward through eastern Massachusetts and on into Maine, All the while, this fresh storm would rapidly strengthen.

This would keep the heavy precipitation going here in Vermont. The cold air flooding in would change the rain to a wet snow, just in time for the Monday morning commute.

This could be a real mess, given the timing. Since the cold air coming in behind the storm isn't all that cold, the burst of snow would be wet and heavy.  That's the worst crap to drive through. 

On top of that, since the storm would be getting strong, winds from the northwest would howl, perhaps with gusts to 40 mph.  The combination of wet snow piling up on trees with a lot of wind is a recipe for more power failures.

Just what we need, right?  The storm on November 27 cut power to 34,000 Vermont homes and businesses. That got fixed just in time for the storm on December 3-4 to cut power to 16,000 or so Vermont customers.

Now, we have another potential storm to cause similar-sized problems. I'm sure Green Mountain Power and other Vermont electric utilities are just thrilled with this updated forecast. 

This repeated storm damage to electric utilities is expensive to fix. So even if get lucky and none of the storms cuts power to your house, you'll still eventually pay through higher electric bills. Dealing with these storms probably delays efforts by Green Mountain Power to reinforce their grid against increasingly severe storms in the age of climate change.

The early guess on snow accumulations on Monday is perhaps a good thump of six to 12 inches in the ski areas to at least partly replace what is lost in the thaw and rain Sunday night. 

There could be as little as one to three inches in the warmer valleys. But this is just a guess.  I think it will take until Sunday to get a good read on exactly how much wet snow we'll get. Even then, we will probably be in for new surprises with this storm. 

We might have some good news after the storm departs. The weather pattern has been pretty active so far this December, but it looks like a pattern shift might make things go quieter starting next Tuesday. If longer range forecasts pan out, we'll see normal to somewhat above normal temperatures and not much precipitation of any kind into mid-month. We shall see!