Upcoming Storm Still Threatening Minor Flooding, Wind, Maybe Late Snow Switch-Over In Vermont

If anything, rainfall amounts in the Northeast have 
increased for the upcoming storm, with two
inches of rain possible in some spots. Flooding
looks likely in Vermont, but it won't be nearly
as bad as the disasters we had this past summer.

Vermont is having a spell of quiet winter cold, but a long-advertised spell of nasty storminess is still on the horizon. And it's still bad news for snow lovers.

If this pans out as forecast, the storm Sunday and early Monday will dump upwards of two inches of rain on at least some of Vermont. That's quite a big amount for a storm this time of year.

Flooding is widely expected with this storm, but at least meteorologists seem pretty confident at this point that it won't be nearly as bad as the inundations we suffered through this past summer. 

Still, I envision low-lying roads closing, some basements flooding, standing water in a lot of areas. Even those minor effects are a pain, especially after the year we had.

Ahead of the storm, a sharp warming trend will begin to stir Friday, then really take hold Saturday. By afternoon Saturday, we should be well into the 40s and the surprisingly deep mountain snow for this time of year will begin to melt. 

The real action starts Sunday. Temperatures will soar into the low 50s in some areas and rain will develop. By Sunday night, it will be raining pretty hard statewide. 

The good news is the downpours won't last all that long.  The rain will probably be tapering off and/or changing to snow late Sunday night or Monday morning. That's different from the soggy weather fronts that stalled over or near Vermont over the summer. Those laggard fronts ensured heavy rain would last a long time, sealing our disastrous fate.

This time, the rain will shut off before things get really out of control. Melting snow will add to the runoff, so that's another reason we'll have some flooding.

Given that it's only Thursday, changes are inevitable with this forecast. The biggest question mark is when rain will change to snow, and how much snow will fall once the changeover starts. Early indications are it won't amount to much, except perhaps in the northern mountains. Still, there's enough time for surprises to hit. 

Even though a lot of snow will melt in the mountains, not all of it will go.  The rain and thaw won't last long enough to get rid of it all at elevations above 1,500 to 2,000 feet. So winter sports won't be completely ruined by this. 

After we get through this storm, the days afterward should turn quieter and generally not particularly cold for December for at least a few days.