Vermont Storm Messy But Could Have Been Much Worse; Power Outages Still Increasing

National Weather Service forecast map for additional
snow accumulation that is expected to take place after
7 a.m. today. The map is NOT a storm total as it
does not include snow that accumulated before 7 a.m. today.

UPDATE 1 PM MONDAY

As expected, it kept snowing in much of Vermont and accumulations are now quite a bit closer to original estimates.

It won't be as big a storm as we thought this time yesterday, but it's still pretty good.

Snow accumulations here in St. Albans went from 1.8 inches ago 6:30 a.m. to a total of 5 inches as of 12:30 p.m. and it was still snowing lightly.

I see quite a few five to six inch totals cropping up in much of northern Vermont.

I'm sure there will be more complete info later this afternoon.

Power outages have gone up, too. The number was still rising as of 1:30 p.m. and was now up to 7,300 homes and businesses affected .

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 I won't say Vermont dodged a bullet this Monday morning, because we didn't. But the bullet is fortunately not quite as powerful as feared.  

The wet snow has materialized, and it's coming down at least moderately at times in much of Vermont before dawn this Monday morning. A winter storm warning remains in effect for good reason

However, it looks like the storm is slightly weaker and taking a track slightly to the east of anticipated, so the effects of this snow might not be super terrible. And not as much will accumulate as I hyped earlier this weekend.

I started to notice the trend toward the weaker/eastern version of the storm with last evening's update, and it looks like that scenario materialized.

Of course, we're still stuck with a terrible morning commute and power outages. The wet snow will continue pretty much until noon or so, and longer than that in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

A number of schools in Vermont are closed or have a delayed opening, so check your local listings.

With somewhat less intense snow in the forecast, power outages won't be quite as widespread as feared. But they're out there, for sure. The outages were just starting to ramp up as of 6 a.m. About Vermont 1,200 homes and businesses were without power at that hour. That's bad, I guess, but not terrible compared to some storms I've seen recently. 

I expect the number of outages to rise this morning as more slushy snow accumulates. 

Despite the fact the storm is somewhat less robust than expected, a decent streak of moderate snow was moving in as of 6 a.m.  That'll hit the power lines to an extent. This heavier snow, relatively speaking, will still hit during this morning's rush hour, as previously advertised. So you'll need to take it slow out there. It'll be an unpleasant drive to work if you're doing that. 

Only 1.8 inches of new snow as of 6:15 a.m. in St. Albans,
Vermont, but it was still snowing. Very wet and sticky; you
can see how it's weighing down the pine trees in the background.

Judging from traffic cams, major highways were slushy as of 6 a.m.  With snow intensities picking up a little, chances are they'll get a little worse, despite the fine efforts of Vermont state plow drivers. 

At least there's less of a chance roads will be blocked by crashes, and fallen trees and power lines. All that is still a risk this morning, but not as big as I was imagining yesterday.

Another benefit of the storm being a little weaker than forecast is winds won't be quite as strong as meteorologists were telling us about yesterday.  

Also, coldish air won't flood in quite as strongly as previously thought. In the warmer valleys remaining light snow might even briefly mix with or change to a cold rain.

So, bottom line: Snow totals: Including what has already fallen will probably amount to three to six inches in the Champlain Valley. A bit less than that will accumulate right next to Lake Champlain. A bit more than the six inches might pile up in the Green Mountain foothills in eastern Chittenden and Franklin counties.

The central and northern Green Mountains should still make out pretty well with this. Some higher towns could end up with a foot or more, but most will get between six and 12 inches. 

Southeastern Vermont valleys will get very little, but higher elevations of the southern Green Mountains, and all but the lowest elevations in Rutland and Bennington counties can expect three to six inches. 

Except for the northern Green Mountains, the snow should be mostly over by mid-afternoon, though a few snow showers will continue in spots into tonight with just a little extra accumulation. Not a big deal.

So, we've gone from an expected candidate for the worst snowstorm of the winter to just a mid-sized mess.  I'll have updates today as warranted

Storms have been extremely challenging to forecast since late November. There's lots of different reasons why, but the main reason is this: Forecasting computer models have gotten good, but they're far from perfect. They don't handle storms that have temperatures near the freezing point well at all. 

With this storm, the National Weather Service in South Burlington indicated in their forecast discussion that the models did not do a good job of figuring out how the severe weather in the South associated with the storm would affect it once it moved north toward New England.