Pick Your Poison: Heavy Rain Or Strong Wind For Vermont Monday Storm

Projected rainfall over the next seven days. Virtually all of
it in the East is from the upcoming storm over the 
next couple days. Areas shaded in purple would
get at least 1.5 inches of rain. Red areas get at least
three inches.Notice, too, after a dry start, California
is going to get into some decent rains. 

 That strong storm forecast to affect the entire eastern United States this weekend and Monday remains on track, but of course, how it affects us here in Vermont still has some question marks. 

Right at mid-afternoon today, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington hoisted flood watches for the entire state. They also posted high wind watches for the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

So here's the Saturday update. Remarkably, the overall thoughts on the effects and path of the upcoming storm have so far not changed a while lot.   

As the storm gathers steam today and tonight, Florida remains under the gun for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and heavy rain.  

This storm will be off to the races Sunday, racing northward and bringing a flood threat with it from Florida to - eventually - Maine and southeastern Canada.

As of midafternoon today, there were already a smattering of flood watches from Florida, up through the Mid-Atlantic States, southern New England and central Maine.  

It'll be quite windy along and near the storm track, too, but as they always say, results may vary.  Some places in the East will be windier than others.

Both flood and wind hazards are in play for Vermont. More below: 

Luckily, the fact the storm will be a fast mover means it won't be that big a problem for too long. And since the storm won't have much time to unload its downpours in any one place, we can cross our fingers that most of the flooding in the East will be relatively minor. 

So what does it mean for us in Vermont:

VERMONT EFFECTS

Broadly, we know the storm will give us kind of a brief shot at very warm, windy and wet weather. Especially for this time of year. 

Like so many storms in recent years, this is likely to be a Christmas spoiler, erasing the snow cover in many areas of the Green Mountain State that are snow covered this morning. 

Today is the calm before the storm.  A weak cold front passed through early this morning, but you wouldn't know it, given how temperatures were still above freezing in a good chunk of Vermont before dawn today. 

 If skies remain partly clear this evening, be on the lookout for possible northern lights, as there was a big solar flare the other night which could set them off. But the trend tonight will be for increasing clouds, as usual, so even if there is a show in the sky, chances are we'll miss it.

Sunday will be cloudy, warm with increasing breezes. It should be especially windy on mountain summits and around Lake Champlain.  Rain should start to move in later in the day. 

Between the relatively heavy rain Sunday night and Monday and snow melt from very warm air, we do have a risk of flooding.  This would involve both small streams and, later on into Monday and Monday night, some of the larger rivers. 

We'll also have to watch for a risk of strong winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, but that prospect is really iffy.  I don't expect a repeat of last December's intense, destructive wind storm in Vermont, but it could still be quite nasty.

At this point anyway, we're looking at possible gusts to 60 mph in those locations. If things play out perfectly, those western slope gusts could be stronger. Even in areas away from the western slopes, current forecasts have possible wind gusts Monday to 50 mph.

All that puts Vermont in play for possible power outages for the fourth Monday in a row. 

If the upcoming storm goes by to our west on Monday, we have a better chance of gusty winds and record high temperatures, but rain wouldn't be quite as heavy as forecast. If the storm goes by to our east, the rain would be heavier here, but the wind and the temperatures would be just a bit lower. 

It's a tossup as to whether the storm goes by to our west, east or right over the top of us. 

By the time the storm passes by and temperatures drop, a lot of snow will be gone. There is a decent chance of snow showers later Monday night and Tuesday with light accumulations in some spots, but so far, it doesn't look like a biggie.

And in the days leading up to Christmas, it looks like it will be mostly dry with kinda average temperatures for this time year.