Could Lingering Flood Echoes From Monday's Storm Spell Trouble Down The Road?

Severe, record breaking flooding along Lake Champlain
in May, 2011,  The lake is high now, but not quite flooding.
However, if heavy precipitation continues through the 
winter and spring, some shoreline flooding is possible
come next April and May 

 None of Vermont's rivers as far as I can tell are above flood stage anymore late this Thursday afternoon.

Yay! 

But the floods from early in the week are still causing lingering issues. Elsewhere in New England, and right here in Vermont. 

Down in Connecticut, the Connecticut River crested at moderate flood stage south of Hartford this morning. (It crested at Hartford yesterday afternoon at the highest level since Hurricane Irene in 2011).

The flooding had closed several roads and parks along the Connecticut River, but most homes and businesses are high enough to avoid damage.

In Maine, the Androscoggin River crested at major flood state Tuesday and Wednesday and was considered a 100 year flood. That means there's a one in 100 chance in a given year the flooding would get that bad. 

The flooding in Maine is likely the second worst in the state's history. 

Back here in Vermont, the only trouble spot remaining is Lake Champlain.  The lake level today had risen to 99.05 feet above sea level. It rose sharply as flooded rivers flowed in the lake Tuesday and Wednesday but seemed to be leveling off today. 

The lake level today is just under six inches below minor flood stage. It's also just a little under the record highs for this time of year, set in 1983.

With stiff north winds today, the lake was high enough to splash over onto roads near the shore, including the Route 2 Causeway connecting Colchester and South Hero.  That splash over froze onto the roadway, making conditions treacherous. There were probably other near-shore roads that suffered the same problem in today's chill.

Runoff from the flooding earlier this week made Lake
Champlain rise to just under six inches below minor
flood stage.  It appears to be leveling off now, 

There was also a minor version of something called a seiche on Lake Champlain today.  Steady north winds pretty much tilted the lake, making it a wee bit shallower on the north end and a little higher on the south end. On the far southern end of the lake, the minor flood stage of 99.5 feet might have been briefly reached today. 

The lake probably sloshed back northward as the sun set and the winds down down late this afternoon, and the lake level was very likely leveling off to something near horizontal.  

The current  high lake levels do raise questions as to what will happen when Lake Champlain reaches its typical yearly peak crest in the spring. 

The lake will surely begin to recede in the coming days, and typically slowly goes down or during January and February. Which means there's no immediate threat of any serious flooding.

Where trouble can arise is if the lake stays higher than normal through the winter. If deep snow eventually piles up in the mountains, and then we have a wet spring, the combination of snow melt and rain runoff could make Lake Champlain flood. Especially if it rises from a higher starting point in March or April than it usually does.

There's no real way to predict whether or not Lake Champlain will cause trouble in the spring. Ground water is certainly above normal as we head into the heart of winter, which could help encourage eventual flooding. However, mountain snow pack is far below normal at the moment. 

That said, nobody has any idea how much precipitation we'll get in the winter and spring. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington usually starts a bi-weekly spring flood outlook in January and continues it into the early spring to give people an idea of whether there is much of a risk of another inundation.